Michael A. Taylor
CF Chicago White Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 32 | MLBMIN | 388 | .220/.279/.442 | 21 | 13 | 98 | 1.7 | |
| 2024 | 33 | MLBPIT | 300 | .193/.257/.290 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 0.1 | |
| 2025 | 34 | MLBCWS | 325 | .200/.260/.366 | 9 | 8 | 69 | -0.3 | |
| 2026 | 35 | No MLB games played | |||||||
| 2027PROJ | 36 | MLBCWS | 161 | .222/.284/.395 | 6 | 4 | 88 | 0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ | 37 | MLBCWS | 112 | .209/.270/.366 | 4 | 1 | 76 | -0.6 | |
Tools · Splits · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 19 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 308 | 641 | 77 | 273 | 13 | 7 | 302 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 149 | 128 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 195 | 280 | 297 | 577 | 102 | 238 | 21 | 9 | 255 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 488 | 442 | 112 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 32 | 120 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 253 | 312 | 432 | 745 | 179 | 316 | 25 | 7 | 324 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 431 | 384 | 93 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 113 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 242 | 319 | 362 | 680 | 120 | 335 | 26 | 9 | 306 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 581 | 509 | 134 | 41 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 131 | 8 | 51 | 7 | 263 | 344 | 426 | 771 | 163 | 331 | 23 | 9 | 339 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 154 | 137 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 365 | 428 | 511 | 939 | 146 | 490 | 25 | 8 | 412 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 43 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 205 | 279 | 359 | 638 | 154 | 333 | 40 | 7 | 288 | 80 | -1 | -1 | -0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 52 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 333 | 409 | 742 | 182 | 310 | 27 | 13 | 326 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 441 | 384 | 120 | 17 | 2 | 22 | 50 | 130 | 4 | 34 | 8 | 312 | 397 | 539 | 936 | 227 | 421 | 29 | 11 | 409 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 511 | 472 | 108 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 158 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 229 | 283 | 358 | 642 | 129 | 311 | 31 | 7 | 287 | 72 | -17 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +11 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 32 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 385 | 467 | 538 | 1.005 | 154 | 562 | 31 | 12 | 419 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 237 | 221 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 77 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 231 | 280 | 376 | 655 | 145 | 319 | 32 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 130 | 117 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 205 | 285 | 291 | 575 | 85 | 277 | 25 | 9 | 266 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 432 | 399 | 108 | 23 | 3 | 19 | 29 | 137 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 271 | 322 | 486 | 808 | 216 | 363 | 32 | 7 | 352 | 122 | +11 | +1 | +8 | +2 | +9 | 3.2 |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 214 | 346 | 560 | 192 | 176 | 29 | 7 | 248 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 21 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 158 | 396 | 250 | 33 | 10 | 196 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 385 | 353 | 80 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 116 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 227 | 287 | 357 | 644 | 130 | 320 | 30 | 8 | 288 | 80 | -9 | +2 | +7 | +1 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 29 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 172 | 179 | 351 | 36 | 211 | 31 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 97 | 88 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 250 | 305 | 364 | 669 | 114 | 396 | 35 | 7 | 295 | 85 | -2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 247 | 218 | 54 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 69 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 248 | 328 | 463 | 791 | 216 | 315 | 28 | 10 | 345 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 99 | 92 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 253 | 424 | 676 | 228 | 217 | 27 | 6 | 297 | 86 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | — | 528 | 483 | 118 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 144 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 244 | 299 | 356 | 656 | 112 | 319 | 27 | 6 | 292 | 87 | -8 | +0 | +15 | +2 | +11 | 2.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | — | 456 | 414 | 105 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 109 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 254 | 315 | 357 | 672 | 104 | 321 | 24 | 8 | 301 | 93 | -4 | +0 | +7 | +2 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 388 | 355 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 130 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 220 | 279 | 442 | 721 | 223 | 278 | 34 | 7 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +6 | +1 | +8 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 300 | 269 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 193 | 257 | 290 | 547 | 97 | 288 | 35 | 8 | 244 | 52 | -17 | +2 | +9 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 325 | 295 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 110 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 200 | 260 | 366 | 626 | 166 | 281 | 34 | 7 | 274 | 69 | -12 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 3801 | 3480 | 807 | 156 | 15 | 109 | 263 | 1164 | 17 | 128 | 35 | 232 | 289 | 379 | 668 | 147 | 313 | 31 | 7 | 296 | 86 | -62 | +12 | +57 | +16 | +82 | 10.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 19 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 308 | 641 | 77 | 257 | 20 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 149 | 133 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 150 | 210 | 226 | 435 | 75 | 187 | 30 | 6 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 488 | 454 | 93 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 161 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 205 | 248 | 344 | 592 | 139 | 278 | 33 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 431 | 399 | 75 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 162 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 188 | 241 | 273 | 514 | 85 | 302 | 38 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 581 | 529 | 107 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 200 | 8 | 51 | 7 | 202 | 262 | 327 | 589 | 125 | 290 | 34 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 43 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 205 | 279 | 359 | 638 | 154 | 333 | 40 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -1 | -1 | -0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 52 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 275 | 348 | 622 | 152 | 288 | 33 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 441 | 400 | 107 | 13 | 2 | 17 | 34 | 166 | 4 | 34 | 8 | 268 | 331 | 438 | 769 | 170 | 401 | 38 | 8 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 511 | 481 | 108 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 26 | 158 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 225 | 266 | 351 | 617 | 127 | 311 | 31 | 5 | 275 | 72 | -17 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +11 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 32 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 370 | 433 | 519 | 952 | 148 | 527 | 38 | 9 | 394 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 237 | 221 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 77 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 231 | 280 | 376 | 655 | 145 | 319 | 32 | 6 | 290 | 83 | -5 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 130 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 165 | 223 | 240 | 463 | 74 | 242 | 32 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 432 | 402 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 137 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 271 | 317 | 490 | 807 | 219 | 363 | 32 | 6 | 348 | 122 | +11 | +1 | +8 | +2 | +9 | 3.2 |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 148 | 179 | 333 | 512 | 185 | 154 | 36 | 4 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 21 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 190 | 217 | 48 | 0 | 107 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 385 | 355 | 81 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 116 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 228 | 285 | 363 | 648 | 135 | 320 | 30 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -9 | +2 | +7 | +1 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 97 | 88 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 250 | 305 | 364 | 669 | 114 | 396 | 35 | 7 | 294 | 85 | -2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 247 | 228 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 84 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 193 | 246 | 338 | 584 | 145 | 265 | 34 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 99 | 92 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 253 | 424 | 676 | 228 | 217 | 27 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 528 | 483 | 120 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 144 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 248 | 303 | 366 | 670 | 118 | 319 | 27 | 6 | 297 | 87 | -8 | +0 | +15 | +2 | +11 | 2.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 456 | 414 | 107 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 109 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 258 | 319 | 370 | 689 | 111 | 321 | 24 | 8 | 305 | 93 | -4 | +0 | +7 | +2 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 388 | 355 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 130 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 220 | 279 | 442 | 721 | 223 | 278 | 34 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +6 | +1 | +8 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 300 | 269 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 193 | 257 | 290 | 547 | 97 | 288 | 35 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -17 | +2 | +9 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 325 | 296 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 110 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 199 | 257 | 365 | 622 | 166 | 281 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -12 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 164 | 146 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 158 | 222 | 233 | 454 | 75 | 214 | 29 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 164 | 141 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 285 | 298 | 583 | 99 | 241 | 20 | 9 | 259 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 488 | 454 | 93 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 161 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 205 | 248 | 344 | 592 | 139 | 287 | 33 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 488 | 442 | 112 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 32 | 120 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 253 | 312 | 432 | 745 | 179 | 316 | 25 | 7 | 324 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 431 | 399 | 75 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 162 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 188 | 241 | 273 | 514 | 85 | 309 | 38 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 431 | 384 | 93 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 113 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 242 | 319 | 362 | 680 | 120 | 335 | 26 | 9 | 306 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 735 | 670 | 135 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 44 | 253 | 10 | 54 | 11 | 201 | 261 | 324 | 585 | 122 | 300 | 34 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 735 | 646 | 184 | 48 | 8 | 13 | 68 | 169 | 10 | 54 | 11 | 285 | 362 | 444 | 806 | 159 | 363 | 23 | 9 | 354 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 536 | 485 | 123 | 18 | 3 | 19 | 42 | 201 | 5 | 37 | 11 | 254 | 320 | 421 | 740 | 167 | 391 | 38 | 8 | 318 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 536 | 467 | 138 | 23 | 3 | 24 | 60 | 161 | 5 | 37 | 11 | 296 | 382 | 512 | 893 | 216 | 403 | 30 | 11 | 391 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 543 | 508 | 118 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 29 | 170 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 232 | 275 | 360 | 635 | 128 | 316 | 31 | 5 | 282 | 77 | -15 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 543 | 498 | 118 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 168 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 237 | 294 | 367 | 661 | 131 | 324 | 31 | 7 | 294 | 77 | -15 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 342 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 119 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 208 | 260 | 327 | 587 | 120 | 292 | 32 | 6 | 260 | 62 | -16 | +3 | +2 | +1 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 367 | 338 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 110 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 222 | 281 | 346 | 628 | 124 | 303 | 30 | 7 | 282 | 62 | -16 | +3 | +2 | +1 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 481 | 450 | 114 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 157 | 1 | 21 | 7 | 253 | 297 | 458 | 755 | 204 | 342 | 33 | 6 | 328 | 108 | +5 | +1 | +8 | +2 | +10 | 2.7 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 481 | 444 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 20 | 33 | 152 | 1 | 21 | 7 | 259 | 312 | 464 | 776 | 205 | 347 | 32 | 7 | 339 | 108 | +5 | +1 | +8 | +2 | +10 | 2.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 382 | 86 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 125 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 225 | 282 | 353 | 635 | 128 | 319 | 30 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -10 | +2 | +7 | +1 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 414 | 381 | 84 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 125 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 220 | 279 | 344 | 623 | 123 | 312 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 80 | -10 | +2 | +7 | +1 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 316 | 66 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 118 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 209 | 263 | 345 | 607 | 136 | 304 | 34 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 344 | 306 | 76 | 23 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 103 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 248 | 322 | 435 | 756 | 186 | 337 | 30 | 9 | 331 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 99 | 92 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 253 | 424 | 676 | 228 | 217 | 27 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | — | 99 | 92 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 253 | 424 | 676 | 228 | 217 | 27 | 6 | 297 | 86 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 528 | 483 | 120 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 144 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 248 | 303 | 366 | 670 | 118 | 323 | 27 | 6 | 297 | 87 | -8 | +0 | +15 | +2 | +11 | 2.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB RAW | Kansas City Royals | — | 528 | 483 | 118 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 144 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 244 | 299 | 356 | 656 | 112 | 319 | 27 | 6 | 292 | 87 | -8 | +0 | +15 | +2 | +11 | 2.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 456 | 414 | 107 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 109 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 258 | 319 | 370 | 689 | 111 | 326 | 24 | 8 | 305 | 93 | -4 | +0 | +7 | +2 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB RAW | Kansas City Royals | — | 456 | 414 | 105 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 109 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 254 | 315 | 357 | 672 | 104 | 321 | 24 | 8 | 301 | 93 | -4 | +0 | +7 | +2 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 388 | 355 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 130 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 220 | 279 | 442 | 721 | 223 | 278 | 34 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +6 | +1 | +8 | 1.7 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB RAW | Minnesota Twins | — | 388 | 355 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 130 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 220 | 279 | 442 | 721 | 223 | 278 | 34 | 7 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +6 | +1 | +8 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 300 | 269 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 193 | 257 | 290 | 547 | 97 | 288 | 35 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -17 | +2 | +9 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB RAW | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 300 | 269 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 193 | 257 | 290 | 547 | 97 | 288 | 35 | 8 | 244 | 52 | -17 | +2 | +9 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 325 | 296 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 110 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 199 | 257 | 365 | 622 | 166 | 279 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -12 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB RAW | Chicago White Sox | — | 325 | 295 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 110 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 200 | 260 | 366 | 626 | 166 | 281 | 34 | 7 | 274 | 69 | -12 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 164 | 151 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 222 | 225 | 447 | 73 | 193 | 29 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 488 | 459 | 93 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 161 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 203 | 248 | 340 | 588 | 137 | 278 | 33 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 431 | 400 | 75 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 162 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 188 | 241 | 273 | 514 | 85 | 302 | 38 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 735 | 675 | 135 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 44 | 253 | 10 | 54 | 11 | 200 | 261 | 321 | 583 | 121 | 290 | 34 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 536 | 484 | 123 | 18 | 3 | 19 | 42 | 201 | 5 | 37 | 11 | 254 | 320 | 421 | 741 | 167 | 385 | 38 | 8 | 318 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 543 | 508 | 118 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 29 | 170 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 232 | 275 | 360 | 635 | 128 | 324 | 31 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 340 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 119 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 209 | 260 | 329 | 589 | 121 | 292 | 32 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 481 | 450 | 114 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 157 | 1 | 21 | 7 | 253 | 297 | 458 | 755 | 204 | 345 | 33 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 381 | 86 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 125 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 226 | 282 | 354 | 636 | 129 | 320 | 30 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 318 | 66 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 118 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 208 | 263 | 343 | 605 | 135 | 302 | 34 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 99 | 92 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 253 | 424 | 676 | 228 | 217 | 27 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 528 | 485 | 120 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 144 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 247 | 303 | 365 | 668 | 118 | 319 | 27 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 456 | 416 | 107 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 109 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 319 | 368 | 687 | 111 | 321 | 24 | 8 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 388 | 356 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 130 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 219 | 279 | 441 | 720 | 222 | 278 | 34 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 300 | 274 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 190 | 257 | 285 | 542 | 95 | 288 | 35 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 325 | 299 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 110 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 197 | 257 | 361 | 618 | 164 | 281 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 33 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 300 | 274 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 190 | 257 | 285 | 542 | 95 | 288 | 35 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 325 | 299 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 110 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 197 | 257 | 361 | 618 | 164 | 281 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB MLE | CWS | 100% | 259 | 237 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 79 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 221 | 283 | 391 | 674 | 170 | 289 | 31 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -4 | +1 | +2 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB CTX | CWS | 100% | 161 | 147 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 222 | 284 | 395 | 678 | 173 | 290 | 30 | 7 | 299 | 88 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +3 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 37 | MLB MLE | CWS | 100% | 112 | 103 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 363 | 631 | 155 | 276 | 31 | 7 | 280 | 76 | -3 | +0 | -6 | +0 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB CTX | CWS | 100% | 112 | 103 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 270 | 366 | 636 | 157 | 277 | 31 | 7 | 282 | 76 | -3 | +0 | -6 | +0 | +2 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3913 | 3583 | 829 | 161 | 15 | 113 | 271 | 1199 | 17 | 129 | 35 | 231 | 289 | 379 | 668 | 148 | 312 | 31 | 7 | 295 | 75 | -65 | +12 | +51 | +16 | +85 | 10.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 138 | 27 | 2 | 19 | 45 | 199 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 232 | 289 | 380 | 669 | 148 | 313 | 31 | 7 | 295 | 75 | -11 | +2 | +8 | +3 | +14 | 1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6872 | 6311 | 1391 | 290 | 37 | 171 | 435 | 2222 | 45 | 290 | 87 | 220 | 276 | 359 | 635 | 139 | 308 | 32 | 6 | 279 | 75 | -67 | +12 | +52 | +17 | +88 | 10.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 130 | 27 | 3 | 16 | 41 | 210 | 4 | 27 | 8 | 218 | 272 | 353 | 626 | 136 | 304 | 32 | 6 | 279 | 75 | -11 | +2 | +8 | +3 | +14 | 1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 247 PAwOBA .337 → .256 (−80)K% 27.9% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.94% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.31% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.12% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 16.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.74% | ÷0.985 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 8.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.34% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.04% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 4.10% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .337 → .256; ISO .216 → .155; BABIP .315 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 28 PAwOBA .241 → .188 (−53)K% 28.6% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 5.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 9.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.41% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .241 → .188; ISO .192 → .149; BABIP .176 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Potomac Nationals · 21 PAwOBA .139 → .107 (−32)K% 33.3% → 49.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 49.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 21.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.368 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .139 → .107; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 130 PAwOBA .260 → .205 (−55)K% 25.4% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.38% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.24% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 17.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.95% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.06% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .260 → .205; ISO .085 → .073; BABIP .277 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 32 PAwOBA .421 → .394 (−27)K% 31.2% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷1.043 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 48.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 5.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.183 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 4.65% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .421 → .394; ISO .154 → .127; BABIP .562 → .527. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 441 PAwOBA .397 → .327 (−70)K% 29.5% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.48% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.88% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.10% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×1.027 | 31.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.69% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×1.003 | ×1.027 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | ×1.027 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.66% | ÷0.991 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .397 → .327; ISO .227 → .173; BABIP .421 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 52 PAwOBA .318 → .272 (−46)K% 26.9% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.46% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 10.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 16.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 8.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.063 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 3.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.985 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 2.99% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 113, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .318 → .272; ISO .182 → .159; BABIP .310 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Potomac Nationals · 581 PAwOBA .334 → .256 (−78)K% 22.5% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.55% | ÷0.932 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.29% | ÷0.991 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷1.031 | ×0.940 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 18.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.85% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 9.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 2.57% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 86, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .334 → .256; ISO .163 → .127; BABIP .331 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .