Michael A. Taylor

CF Chicago White Sox
Age 36 R/R 6'4" / 215 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 13.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202332MLBMIN388.220/.279/.4422113981.7
202433MLBPIT300.193/.257/.290512520.1
202534MLBCWS325.200/.260/.3669869-0.3
202635No MLB games played
2027PROJ36MLBCWS161.222/.284/.39564880.4
2028PROJ37MLBCWS112.209/.270/.3664176-0.6
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service13.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025
Barrel%75
Bat Spd60
Speed58
Avg EV53
xwOBA30
CompsCody Ransom (age 36) · Mark Little (age 34) · Mike Coolbaugh (age 34)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9188vR 77
AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .284 / .395
PA161
HR6
K%30
BB%7
BABIP290
ISO184
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +1.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.0-0.62728
Tools · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2025
CONTACT
xAVG
100.203
POWER
Barrel%
7512.0
Avg EV
5389.3
Bat Spd
6072.4
SPEED
Sprint
5827.8
Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 625 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
244
381
—
wRC+
77
52
◀◀L
wOBA
282
246
◀L
ISO
196
091
◀◀L
BABIP
297
276
◀L
K%
36.1%
33.3%
▶R
BB%
4.9%
8.7%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2014
Service   13.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M———
Totals $1M $0.0M -$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201019 AHagerstown Suns — 1513 3100 121 00 231333308641 77273 137 302 61 — — — — — —
201019 ROKGCL Nationals — 149128 25431 14311 12 195280297577 102238 219 255 13 — — — — — —
201120 AHagerstown Suns — 488442 11226713 321206 2312 253312432745 179316 257 324 56 — — — — — —
201221 A+Potomac Nationals — 431384 933323 401133 199 242319362680 120335 269 306 40 — — — — — —
201322 A+Potomac Nationals — 581509 13441610 551318 517 263344426771 163331 239 339 59 — — — — — —
201322 INTLIndios de Mayaguez — 154137 50723 13382 34 365428511939 146490 258 412 165 — — — — — —
201423 MLBWashington Nationals — 4339 8301 3171 02 205279359638 154333 407 288 80 -1 -1 -0 +2 +1 0.1
201423 AAASyracuse Chiefs — 5244 10311 7140 31 227333409742 182310 2713 326 70 — — — — — —
201423 AAHarrisburg Senators — 441384 12017222 501304 348 312397539936 227421 2911 409 107 — — — — — —
201524 MLBWashington Nationals — 511472 10815214 351581 163 229283358642 129311 317 287 72 -17 +2 +2 +2 +11 0.0
201524 AAASyracuse Chiefs — 3226 10101 4100 21 3854675381.005 154562 3112 419 153 — — — — — —
201625 MLBWashington Nationals — 237221 511107 14771 143 231280376655 145319 326 291 83 -5 +2 +2 +1 +5 0.5
201625 AAASyracuse Chiefs — 130117 24511 12331 71 205285291575 85277 259 266 25 — — — — — —
201726 MLBWashington Nationals — 432399 10823319 291371 177 271322486808 216363 327 352 122 +11 +1 +8 +2 +9 3.2
201726 AAHarrisburg Senators — 2826 4201 280 30 154214346560 192176 297 248 13 — — — — — —
201726 A+Potomac Nationals — 2119 3000 270 10 158238158396 250 3310 196 -41 — — — — — —
201827 MLBWashington Nationals — 385353 802236 291161 246 227287357644 130320 308 288 80 -9 +2 +7 +1 +8 1.0
201827 INTLGigantes del Cibao — 2928 4100 190 00 143172179351 36211 313 162 -4 — — — — — —
201928 MLBWashington Nationals — 9788 22701 7340 60 250305364669 114396 357 295 85 -2 +1 +1 +1 +2 0.4
201928 AAHarrisburg Senators — 247218 541629 25691 106 248328463791 216315 2810 345 59 — — — — — —
202029 MLBWashington Nationals — 9992 18605 6271 00 196253424676 228217 276 297 86 -2 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.0
202130 MLBKansas City Royals — 528483 11816112 331445 147 244299356656 112319 276 292 87 -8 +0 +15 +2 +11 2.1
202231 MLBKansas City Royals — 456414 1051039 351092 42 254315357672 104321 248 301 93 -4 +0 +7 +2 +10 1.4
202332 MLBMinnesota Twins — 388355 7814121 261303 131 220279442721 223278 347 314 98 -1 +2 +6 +1 +8 1.7
202433 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 300269 52915 231050 121 193257290547 97288 358 244 52 -17 +2 +9 +1 +6 0.1
202534 MLBChicago White Sox — 325295 592019 231101 83 200260366626 166281 347 274 69 -12 +0 +1 +1 +7 -0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 38013480 80715615109 263116417 12835 232289379668 147313 317 296 86 -62 +12 +57 +16 +82 10.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201019 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 1513 3100 131 00 231333308641 77257 207 258 61 — — — — — —
201019 ROK MLEGCL Nationals — 149133 20321 9451 12 150210226435 75187 306 187 13 — — — — — —
201120 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 488454 9318611 201616 2312 205248344592 139278 334 251 56 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLEPotomac Nationals — 431399 752612 251623 199 188241273514 85302 386 227 40 — — — — — —
201322 A+ MLEPotomac Nationals — 581529 1073149 352008 517 202262327589 125290 346 256 59 — — — — — —
201423 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 4339 8301 3171 02 205279359638 154333 407 286 80 -1 -1 -0 +2 +1 0.1
201423 AAA MLESyracuse Chiefs — 5246 9211 5170 31 196275348622 152288 3310 272 70 — — — — — —
201423 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 441400 10713217 341664 348 268331438769 170401 388 327 107 — — — — — —
201524 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 511481 10815214 261581 163 225266351617 127311 315 275 72 -17 +2 +2 +2 +11 0.0
201524 AAA MLESyracuse Chiefs — 3227 10101 3120 21 370433519952 148527 389 394 153 — — — — — —
201625 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 237221 511107 14771 143 231280376655 145319 326 290 83 -5 +2 +2 +1 +5 0.5
201625 AAA MLESyracuse Chiefs — 130121 20411 8421 71 165223240463 74242 326 205 25 — — — — — —
201726 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 432402 10923419 261371 177 271317490807 219363 326 348 122 +11 +1 +8 +2 +9 3.2
201726 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 2827 4201 1100 30 148179333512 185154 364 188 13 — — — — — —
201726 A+ MLEPotomac Nationals — 2121 2000 0100 10 959595190 217 480 107 -41 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 385355 812246 271161 246 228285363648 135320 307 286 80 -9 +2 +7 +1 +8 1.0
201928 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 9788 22701 7340 60 250305364669 114396 357 294 85 -2 +1 +1 +1 +2 0.4
201928 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 247228 441316 15841 106 193246338584 145265 346 256 59 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 9992 18605 6271 00 196253424676 228217 276 295 86 -2 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.0
202130 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 528483 12016113 331445 147 248303366670 118319 276 297 87 -8 +0 +15 +2 +11 2.1
202231 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 456414 10710310 351092 42 258319370689 111321 248 305 93 -4 +0 +7 +2 +10 1.4
202332 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 388355 7814121 261303 131 220279442721 223278 347 313 98 -1 +2 +6 +1 +8 1.7
202433 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 300269 52915 231050 121 193257290547 97288 358 245 52 -17 +2 +9 +1 +6 0.1
202534 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 325296 592019 221101 83 199257365622 166281 347 270 69 -12 +0 +1 +1 +7 -0.3
201019 ROK MLE2 teams — 164146 23421 10472 12 158222233454 75214 296 193 17 — — — — — —
201019 ROK RAW2 teams — 164141 28531 15332 12 199285298583 99241 209 259 17 — — — — — —
201120 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 488454 9318611 201616 2312 205248344592 139287 334 251 56 — — — — — —
201120 A RAWHagerstown Suns — 488442 11226713 321206 2312 253312432745 179316 257 324 56 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLEPotomac Nationals — 431399 752612 251623 199 188241273514 85309 386 227 40 — — — — — —
201221 A+ RAWPotomac Nationals — 431384 933323 401133 199 242319362680 120335 269 306 40 — — — — — —
201322 A+ MLE2 teams — 735670 13539511 4425310 5411 201261324585 122300 346 256 59 — — — — — —
201322 A+ RAW2 teams — 735646 18448813 6816910 5411 285362444806 159363 239 354 59 — — — — — —
201423 AA MLE3 teams — 536485 12318319 422015 3711 254320421740 167391 388 318 102 — — — — — —
201423 AA RAW3 teams — 536467 13823324 601615 3711 296382512893 216403 3011 391 102 — — — — — —
201524 MLB MLE2 teams — 543508 11816215 291701 184 232275360635 128316 315 282 77 -15 +2 +2 +2 +12 0.3
201524 MLB RAW2 teams — 543498 11816215 391681 184 237294367661 131324 317 294 77 -15 +2 +2 +2 +12 0.3
201625 MLB MLE2 teams — 367342 711518 221192 214 208260327587 120292 326 260 62 -16 +3 +2 +1 +8 -0.3
201625 MLB RAW2 teams — 367338 751618 261102 214 222281346628 124303 307 282 62 -16 +3 +2 +1 +8 -0.3
201726 MLB MLE3 teams — 481450 11424420 271571 217 253297458755 204342 336 328 108 +5 +1 +8 +2 +10 2.7
201726 MLB RAW3 teams — 481444 11525320 331521 217 259312464776 205347 327 339 108 +5 +1 +8 +2 +10 2.7
201827 MLB MLE2 teams — 414382 862346 291251 246 225282353635 128319 307 286 80 -10 +2 +7 +1 +9 1.0
201827 MLB RAW2 teams — 414381 842336 301251 246 220279344623 123312 307 279 80 -10 +2 +7 +1 +9 1.0
201928 AA MLE2 teams — 344316 662017 221181 166 209263345607 136304 346 267 67 — — — — — —
201928 AA RAW2 teams — 344306 7623210 321031 166 248322435756 186337 309 331 67 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 9992 18605 6271 00 196253424676 228217 276 295 86 -2 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.0
202029 MLB RAWWashington Nationals — 9992 18605 6271 00 196253424676 228217 276 297 86 -2 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.0
202130 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 528483 12016113 331445 147 248303366670 118323 276 297 87 -8 +0 +15 +2 +11 2.1
202130 MLB RAWKansas City Royals — 528483 11816112 331445 147 244299356656 112319 276 292 87 -8 +0 +15 +2 +11 2.1
202231 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 456414 10710310 351092 42 258319370689 111326 248 305 93 -4 +0 +7 +2 +10 1.4
202231 MLB RAWKansas City Royals — 456414 1051039 351092 42 254315357672 104321 248 301 93 -4 +0 +7 +2 +10 1.4
202332 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 388355 7814121 261303 131 220279442721 223278 347 313 98 -1 +2 +6 +1 +8 1.7
202332 MLB RAWMinnesota Twins — 388355 7814121 261303 131 220279442721 223278 347 314 98 -1 +2 +6 +1 +8 1.7
202433 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 300269 52915 231050 121 193257290547 97288 358 245 52 -17 +2 +9 +1 +6 0.1
202433 MLB RAWPittsburgh Pirates — 300269 52915 231050 121 193257290547 97288 358 244 52 -17 +2 +9 +1 +6 0.1
202534 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 325296 592019 221101 83 199257365622 166279 347 270 69 -12 +0 +1 +1 +7 -0.3
202534 MLB RAWChicago White Sox — 325295 592019 231101 83 200260366626 166281 347 274 69 -12 +0 +1 +1 +7 -0.3
201019 ROK MLE2 teams — 164151 23421 10472 12 152222225447 73193 296 193 17 — — — — — —
201120 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 488459 9318611 201616 2312 203248340588 137278 334 251 56 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLEPotomac Nationals — 431400 752612 251623 199 188241273514 85302 386 227 40 — — — — — —
201322 A+ MLE2 teams — 735675 13539511 4425310 5411 200261321583 121290 346 256 59 — — — — — —
201423 AA MLE3 teams — 536484 12318319 422015 3711 254320421741 167385 388 318 102 — — — — — —
201524 MLB MLE2 teams — 543508 11816215 291701 184 232275360635 128324 315 282 77 — — — — — —
201625 MLB MLE2 teams — 367340 711518 221192 214 209260329589 121292 326 260 62 — — — — — —
201726 MLB MLE3 teams — 481450 11424420 271571 217 253297458755 204345 336 328 108 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLE2 teams — 414381 862346 291251 246 226282354636 129320 307 286 80 — — — — — —
201928 AA MLE2 teams — 344318 662017 221181 166 208263343605 135302 346 267 67 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 9992 18605 6271 00 196253424676 228217 276 295 86 — — — — — —
202130 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 528485 12016113 331445 147 247303365668 118319 276 297 87 — — — — — —
202231 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 456416 10710310 351092 42 257319368687 111321 248 305 93 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 388356 7814121 261303 131 219279441720 222278 347 313 98 — — — — — —
202433 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 300274 52915 231050 121 190257285542 95288 358 245 52 — — — — — —
202534 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 325299 592019 221101 83 197257361618 164281 347 270 69 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202433 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 300274 52915 231050 121 190257285542 95288 358 245 52 — — — — — —
202534 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 325299 592019 221101 83 197257361618 164281 347 270 69 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202736 MLB MLECWS 100% 259237 531219 19791 72 221283391674 170289 317 298 88 -4 +1 +2 +1 +6 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202736 MLB CTXCWS 100% 161147 33716 12491 41 222284395678 173290 307 299 88 -2 +0 +1 +1 +3 0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202837 MLB MLECWS 100% 112103 21503 8350 10 208269363631 155276 317 280 76 -3 +0 -6 +0 +2 -0.6
202837 MLB CTXCWS 100% 112103 22504 8350 10 209270366636 157277 317 282 76 -3 +0 -6 +0 +2 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 39133583 82916115113 271119917 12935 231289379668 148312 317 295 75 -65 +12 +51 +16 +85 10.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650595 13827219 451993 216 232289380669 148313 317 295 75 -11 +2 +8 +3 +14 1.7
Career— MLE — 68726311 139129037171 435222245 29087 220276359635 139308 326 279 75 -67 +12 +52 +17 +88 10.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650597 13027316 412104 278 218272353626 136304 326 279 75 -11 +2 +8 +3 +14 1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 247 PAwOBA .337 → .256 (−80)K% 27.9% → 34.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.94%÷0.996×1.220——34.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.31%÷1.054×0.700—×0.9685.99%
HBP% /PA0.40%—×0.850—×0.9680.33%
Singles /BIP18.12%÷0.991×0.970×0.950×0.96816.31%
Doubles /BIP10.74%÷0.985×0.860×0.950×0.9688.62%
Triples /BIP1.34%÷1.150×0.950×0.950×0.9681.02%
Home runs /BIP6.04%÷1.111×0.780—×0.9684.10%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .337 → .256; ISO .216 → .155; BABIP .315 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 28 PAwOBA .241 → .188 (−53)K% 28.6% → 34.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.57%÷1.022×1.220——34.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.14%÷0.974×0.700—×0.9885.07%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP5.56%÷1.016×0.970—×0.9885.24%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷0.998×0.860—×0.9889.46%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.906×0.950—×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷0.970×0.780—×0.9884.41%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .241 → .188; ISO .192 → .149; BABIP .176 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Potomac Nationals · 21 PAwOBA .139 → .107 (−32)K% 33.3% → 49.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷0.963×1.420——49.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.982×0.630—×0.9680.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.860—×0.9680.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.050×0.940—×0.96821.67%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.012×0.830—×0.9680.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.800—×0.9680.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.368×0.900—×0.9680.00%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .139 → .107; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 130 PAwOBA .260 → .205 (−55)K% 25.4% → 32.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.38%÷0.949×1.200——32.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.23%÷1.110×0.690—×1.0335.92%
HBP% /PA0.77%—×0.940—×1.0330.75%
Singles /BIP20.24%÷1.048×0.930×0.950×1.03317.63%
Doubles /BIP5.95%÷0.959×0.830×0.950×1.0335.06%
Triples /BIP1.19%÷0.900×0.970×0.950×1.0331.26%
Home runs /BIP1.19%÷0.978×0.840—×1.0331.06%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .260 → .205; ISO .085 → .073; BABIP .277 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 32 PAwOBA .421 → .394 (−27)K% 31.2% → 36.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.25%÷1.043×1.200——35.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷0.938×0.690—×1.0489.64%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP50.00%÷1.010×0.930—×1.04848.24%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷1.088×0.830—×1.0485.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.947×0.970—×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP6.25%÷1.183×0.840—×1.0484.65%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .421 → .394; ISO .154 → .127; BABIP .562 → .527. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 441 PAwOBA .397 → .327 (−70)K% 29.5% → 37.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.48%÷0.955×1.220——37.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.88%÷1.032×0.700—×1.0277.58%
HBP% /PA0.91%—×0.850—×1.0270.79%
Singles /BIP31.10%÷0.992×0.970×1.003×1.02731.32%
Doubles /BIP6.69%÷1.109×0.860×1.003×1.0275.35%
Triples /BIP0.79%÷1.000×0.950×1.003×1.0270.77%
Home runs /BIP8.66%÷0.991×0.780—×1.0277.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .397 → .327; ISO .227 → .173; BABIP .421 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 52 PAwOBA .318 → .272 (−46)K% 26.9% → 33.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.92%÷0.965×1.200——33.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.46%÷0.972×0.690—×1.05010.03%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.003×0.930—×1.05016.22%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷1.027×0.830—×1.0508.49%
Triples /BIP3.33%÷1.063×0.970—×1.0503.19%
Home runs /BIP3.33%÷0.985×0.840—×1.0502.99%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 113, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .318 → .272; ISO .182 → .159; BABIP .310 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Potomac Nationals · 581 PAwOBA .334 → .256 (−78)K% 22.5% → 34.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.55%÷0.932×1.420——34.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.29%÷0.991×0.630—×1.0125.98%
HBP% /PA1.38%—×0.860—×1.0121.20%
Singles /BIP20.37%÷1.031×0.940×0.993×1.01218.66%
Doubles /BIP10.85%÷0.992×0.830×0.993×1.0129.11%
Triples /BIP1.59%÷1.150×0.800×0.993×1.0121.11%
Home runs /BIP2.65%÷0.936×0.900—×1.0122.57%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 86, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .334 → .256; ISO .163 → .127; BABIP .331 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .