Mike Hessman

Pos1B

B/TR/R

Born1978-03-05

Age (2027)49

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2015

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2013	35	AAACIN	482	.240/.331/.495	25	0	61	—	.179/.239/.362
2014	36	AAA/INTL2 orgs	572	.239/.343/.467	29	5	83	—	.199/.256/.407
2015	37	AAADET	475	.237/.344/.437	16	3	63	—	.184/.257/.338

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2003	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	26	21	6	2	0	2	5	6	0	0	0	286	423	667	1.090	381	308	23	19	463	181	+3	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.3
2004	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	71	69	9	3	0	2	1	24	1	0	0	130	155	261	416	130	163	34	1	184	11	-8	+0	-2	-1	+2	-1.0
2005	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	547	473	101	19	1	28	58	154	11	5	4	214	314	436	749	222	249	28	11	331	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	394	345	57	11	0	24	45	129	4	3	1	165	269	406	675	241	172	33	11	300	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	57	51	12	0	0	4	5	17	0	0	0	235	304	471	774	235	258	30	9	334	112	+1	+0	+0	-10	+1	-0.8
2007	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	498	422	107	24	2	31	64	153	6	6	11	254	360	540	900	287	313	31	13	387	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	31	27	8	1	0	5	2	9	2	0	0	296	387	889	1.276	593	231	29	6	528	243	+5	+0	-2	+2	+1	0.6
2008	30	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	473	399	108	20	5	34	59	140	10	3	3	271	378	602	980	331	322	30	12	417	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	548	466	101	30	3	23	65	171	11	3	1	217	327	442	769	225	283	31	12	338	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	MLB	New York Mets	—	65	55	7	2	1	1	8	23	2	0	0	127	262	255	516	127	194	35	12	247	49	-4	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.2
2010	32	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	282	248	68	20	0	18	27	60	4	0	0	274	355	573	927	298	289	21	10	397	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	492	441	102	19	0	35	40	136	6	0	1	231	304	512	816	281	244	28	8	352	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	482	420	101	32	0	25	53	134	4	0	2	240	331	495	826	255	286	28	11	359	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	485	420	104	18	2	28	53	116	3	5	2	248	336	500	836	252	267	24	11	360	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	87	66	12	2	0	1	19	25	2	0	0	182	379	258	637	76	275	29	22	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	475	405	96	25	4	16	57	103	9	3	0	237	344	437	781	200	276	22	12	346	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	250	223	42	8	1	14	21	79	5	0	0	188	273	422	695	233	214	32	8	306	93	-2	+0	-1	-9	+5	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2003	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	26	22	6	2	0	2	4	6	0	0	0	273	385	636	1.021	364	308	23	15	436	181	+3	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.3
2004	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	71	69	9	3	0	2	1	24	1	0	0	130	155	261	416	130	163	34	1	184	11	-8	+0	-2	-1	+2	-1.0
2005	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	547	493	85	15	1	23	38	185	11	5	4	172	247	347	594	174	212	34	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	394	360	45	8	0	19	30	155	4	3	1	125	201	306	506	181	142	39	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	57	51	12	0	0	4	5	17	0	0	0	235	304	471	774	235	258	30	9	334	112	+1	+0	+0	-10	+1	-0.8
2007	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	498	445	89	19	2	25	41	184	6	6	11	200	276	420	697	220	257	37	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	31	27	8	1	0	5	2	9	2	0	0	296	387	889	1.276	593	231	29	6	528	243	+5	+0	-2	+2	+1	0.6
2008	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	473	421	89	15	4	28	37	168	10	3	3	211	291	466	756	254	262	36	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	548	488	81	22	3	18	43	205	11	3	1	166	249	334	583	168	227	37	8	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	65	56	7	2	1	1	7	23	2	0	0	125	246	250	496	125	194	35	11	240	49	-4	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.2
2010	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	282	259	53	13	0	14	16	73	4	0	0	205	262	417	679	212	222	26	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	492	457	75	14	0	24	24	172	6	0	1	164	216	352	568	188	185	35	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	482	442	79	24	0	19	31	167	4	0	2	179	239	362	601	183	225	35	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	485	442	88	13	2	25	31	137	3	5	2	199	256	407	664	208	212	28	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	475	429	79	18	3	14	33	124	9	3	0	184	257	338	595	154	216	26	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2003	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	26	22	6	2	0	2	4	6	0	0	0	273	385	636	1.021	364	286	23	15	436	181	+3	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.3
2003	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	26	21	6	2	0	2	5	6	0	0	0	286	423	667	1.090	381	308	23	19	463	181	+3	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.3
2004	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	71	69	9	3	0	2	1	24	1	0	0	130	155	261	416	130	163	34	1	184	11	-8	+0	-2	-1	+2	-1.0
2004	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	71	69	9	3	0	2	1	24	1	0	0	130	155	261	416	130	163	34	1	184	11	-8	+0	-2	-1	+2	-1.0
2005	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	547	493	85	15	1	23	38	185	11	5	4	172	247	347	594	174	216	34	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	27	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	547	473	101	19	1	28	58	154	11	5	4	214	314	436	749	222	249	28	11	331	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	394	360	45	8	0	19	30	155	4	3	1	125	201	306	506	181	140	39	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	394	345	57	11	0	24	45	129	4	3	1	165	269	406	675	241	172	33	11	300	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	555	496	101	19	2	29	46	201	6	6	11	204	279	425	705	222	265	36	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	555	473	119	24	2	35	69	170	6	6	11	252	354	533	887	281	307	31	12	382	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	504	448	97	16	4	33	39	177	12	3	3	217	297	491	788	275	263	35	8	337	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	504	426	116	21	5	39	61	149	12	3	3	272	379	620	998	347	317	30	12	424	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	548	488	81	22	3	18	43	205	11	3	1	166	249	334	583	168	234	37	8	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	548	466	101	30	3	23	65	171	11	3	1	217	327	442	769	225	283	31	12	338	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	347	315	60	15	1	15	23	96	6	0	0	190	259	387	646	197	217	28	7	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	347	303	75	22	1	19	35	83	6	0	0	248	337	515	852	267	275	24	10	369	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	492	457	75	14	0	24	24	172	6	0	1	164	216	352	568	188	192	35	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	492	441	102	19	0	35	40	136	6	0	1	231	304	512	816	281	244	28	8	352	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	482	442	79	24	0	19	31	167	4	0	2	179	239	362	601	183	230	35	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	482	420	101	32	0	25	53	134	4	0	2	240	331	495	826	255	286	28	11	359	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	572	521	105	16	2	30	37	161	5	5	2	202	261	413	674	211	221	28	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	572	486	116	20	2	29	72	141	5	5	2	239	343	467	810	228	268	25	13	353	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	475	429	79	18	3	14	33	124	9	3	0	184	257	338	595	154	220	26	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	475	405	96	25	4	16	57	103	9	3	0	237	344	437	781	200	276	22	12	346	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2003	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	26	22	6	2	0	2	4	6	0	0	0	273	385	636	1.021	364	308	23	15	436	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2004	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	71	69	9	3	0	2	1	24	1	0	0	130	155	261	416	130	163	34	1	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	547	493	85	15	1	23	38	185	11	5	4	172	247	347	594	174	212	34	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	394	357	45	8	0	19	30	155	4	3	1	126	201	308	509	182	142	39	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	555	498	101	19	2	29	46	201	6	6	11	203	279	424	703	221	257	36	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	504	448	97	16	4	33	39	177	12	3	3	217	297	491	788	275	260	35	8	337	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	548	489	81	22	3	18	43	205	11	3	1	166	249	333	582	168	227	37	8	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	347	315	60	15	1	15	23	96	6	0	0	190	259	387	646	197	217	28	7	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	492	459	75	14	0	24	24	172	6	0	1	163	216	351	566	187	185	35	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	482	444	79	24	0	19	31	167	4	0	2	178	239	360	599	182	225	35	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	572	525	105	16	2	30	37	161	5	5	2	200	261	410	671	210	212	28	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	475	430	79	18	3	14	33	124	9	3	0	184	257	337	594	153	216	26	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	250	223	42	8	1	14	21	79	5	0	0	188	273	422	695	233	214	32	8	306	70	-2	+0	-1	-9	+5	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	109	21	3	36	55	205	13	0	0	188	274	421	694	233	213	32	8	306	70	-5	+0	-3	-22	+14	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5013	4540	822	172	16	228	349	1673	75	28	25	181	251	377	628	196	221	33	7	272	70	-2	+0	-1	-9	+5	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	107	22	2	30	45	217	10	4	3	182	252	379	631	197	221	33	7	272	70	-5	+0	-3	-22	+14	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 475 PAwOBA .339 → .261 (−77)K% 21.7% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.58%	÷1.085	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.92%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.67%
Singles /BIP	16.89%	÷0.988	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	14.19%
Doubles /BIP	8.28%	÷1.083	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	5.66%
Triples /BIP	1.32%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.30%	÷0.911	×0.840	—	×0.940	4.59%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 98, 2B 117, 3B 130, K 100, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .339 → .261; ISO .200 → .164; BABIP .276 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 485 PAwOBA .354 → .287 (−67)K% 23.9% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.92%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	28.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.31%	÷1.053	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.35%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.55%
Singles /BIP	18.42%	÷0.999	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	15.32%
Doubles /BIP	5.92%	÷1.031	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.049	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	9.21%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×0.940	8.09%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 106, 3B 110, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .354 → .287; ISO .252 → .222; BABIP .267 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAALouisville Bats · 482 PAwOBA .352 → .258 (−93)K% 27.8% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.80%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	34.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.79%	÷1.075	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.51%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.73%
Singles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	12.78%
Doubles /BIP	11.19%	÷0.960	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	8.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.74%	÷1.038	×0.840	—	×0.940	6.65%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .352 → .258; ISO .255 → .190; BABIP .286 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 492 PAwOBA .343 → .241 (−102)K% 27.6% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.64%	÷1.018	×1.290	—	—	35.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.72%	÷1.079	×0.710	—	×0.940	4.78%
HBP% /PA	1.22%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	1.12%
Singles /BIP	15.74%	÷1.001	×0.900	×0.950	×0.940	12.64%
Doubles /BIP	6.23%	÷0.960	×0.810	×0.950	×0.940	4.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.101	×0.810	×0.950	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.48%	÷1.033	×0.780	—	×0.940	8.14%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 120, K 104, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .343 → .241; ISO .281 → .192; BABIP .244 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAABuffalo Bisons · 282 PAwOBA .386 → .296 (−89)K% 21.3% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.28%	÷0.984	×1.200	—	—	25.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.16%	÷0.958	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.59%
HBP% /PA	1.42%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.27%
Singles /BIP	15.96%	÷0.969	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	13.85%
Doubles /BIP	10.64%	÷1.133	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	7.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.57%	÷1.026	×0.840	—	×0.952	7.46%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 97, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .386 → .296; ISO .298 → .225; BABIP .289 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 548 PAwOBA .331 → .255 (−77)K% 31.2% → 37.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.20%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	37.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.68%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.75%
HBP% /PA	2.01%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.82%
Singles /BIP	15.25%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	12.96%
Doubles /BIP	10.17%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	7.71%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	7.80%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×0.962	6.30%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .331 → .255; ISO .225 → .177; BABIP .283 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 473 PAwOBA .408 → .325 (−84)K% 29.6% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.60%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	35.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.84%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.94%
HBP% /PA	2.11%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.93%
Singles /BIP	18.92%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	16.25%
Doubles /BIP	7.72%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	5.92%
Triples /BIP	1.93%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	1.73%
Home runs /BIP	13.13%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×0.972	10.72%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .408 → .325; ISO .331 → .269; BABIP .322 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 498 PAwOBA .378 → .301 (−77)K% 30.7% → 36.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.72%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	36.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.05%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.16%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.11%
Singles /BIP	18.59%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.952	×0.982	16.16%
Doubles /BIP	8.92%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.952	×0.982	6.92%
Triples /BIP	0.74%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.952	×0.982	0.67%
Home runs /BIP	11.52%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×0.982	9.51%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .378 → .301; ISO .287 → .234; BABIP .313 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .