Cedric Mullins

CF Tampa Bay Rays

Age 32 L/L 5'7" / 175 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 7.453 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	29	MLBBAL	499	.234/.303/.405	18	32	95	1.4
2025	30	MLBNYM	498	.216/.303/.391	17	22	97	1.3
2026	31	MLBTB	502	.205/.285/.344	15	21	75	-0.3
2027PROJ	32	MLBTB	392	.222/.302/.365	11	17	89	0.6
2028PROJ	33	MLBTB	356	.215/.294/.349	10	11	82	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.453First FA2028Options2

2027Ext / FA-deal$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed60

Bat Spd38

Avg EV35

Barrel%26

xwOBA26

Form.222/.299/.345 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .220/.299/.366

CompsChase d'Arnaud (age 32) · Reggie Taylor (age 32) · Dewayne Wise (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9089vR 88

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .302 / .365

PA392

HR11

SB17

K%20

BB%9

BABIP254

ISO138

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.208

POWER

Barrel%

265.1

Avg EV

3588.0

Bat Spd

3870.1

SPEED

Sprint

6027.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%19%▲17% over 60 PA (60d) · proj 20%

BB%9%·8% over 60 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.123▼.056 over 54 AB (60d) · proj .146

HR/BB3.7%·2.3% over 44 BBE (60d) · proj 4.3%

BABIP.250·.233 over 43 BIP (60d) · proj .251

SLASH.222/.299/.345▼proj .220/.299/.366

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1090 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

254

836

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

289

306

▶R

ISO

116

185

▶▶R

BABIP

269

242

◀L

17.7%

23.1%

◀◀L

BB%

7.5%

9.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.453 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+0.6	$2M	-$2M
Totals		$5M		$2M	-$2M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$4.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	559	517	141	37	10	14	37	101	1	30	6	273	323	464	787	191	314	18	7	343	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	350	309	82	19	1	13	27	58	0	9	7	265	321	460	780	194	283	17	8	332	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	191	170	40	9	0	4	17	37	2	2	3	235	312	359	671	124	279	19	9	302	87	-3	-1	-1	+2	+4	0.2
2018	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	269	242	65	17	3	6	22	39	2	12	0	269	335	438	773	169	298	14	8	339	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	218	201	63	12	5	6	15	28	1	9	1	313	364	512	876	199	339	13	7	382	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	74	64	6	0	2	0	4	14	3	1	0	94	183	156	339	62	118	19	5	160	-6	-9	+0	+2	+2	+2	-0.4
2019	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	306	268	55	8	2	5	25	51	1	13	4	205	274	306	580	101	231	17	8	256	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	226	199	54	11	0	5	22	31	1	20	3	271	347	402	749	131	293	14	10	332	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	153	140	38	4	3	3	8	37	1	7	2	271	315	407	723	136	350	24	5	313	94	-1	+1	+3	+1	+3	0.7
2021	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	675	602	175	37	5	30	59	125	8	30	8	291	361	518	879	228	322	19	9	383	137	+30	+3	+6	+2	+15	5.7
2022	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	672	608	157	32	4	16	47	126	9	34	10	258	320	403	723	145	299	19	7	320	98	-1	+3	+8	+2	+15	2.6
2023	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	455	404	94	23	3	15	43	101	1	19	3	233	308	416	724	183	271	22	9	317	97	-2	+3	+3	+2	+10	1.5
2023	28	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	20	20	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	150	150	150	300		167	10	0	136	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	499	444	104	16	3	18	41	98	5	32	6	234	303	405	708	171	261	20	8	312	95	-3	+4	-0	+2	+11	1.4
2025	30	MLB	New York Mets	—	498	435	94	23	1	17	50	120	4	22	4	216	303	391	693	175	253	24	10	306	97	-2	+3	-1	+2	+11	1.3
2026	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	502	439	90	10	3	15	43	97	7	21	10	205	285	344	629	139	227	19	9	279	75	-15	+0	-1	+2	+11	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3719	3306	798	154	24	118	312	755	40	168	46	241	313	410	723	168	277	20	8	318	101	+7	+15	+18	+17	+81	14.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	559	532	118	29	8	12	22	135	1	30	6	222	254	374	628	152	269	24	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	350	322	78	16	1	11	18	73	0	9	7	242	282	401	683	158	262	21	5	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	191	170	40	9	0	4	17	37	2	2	3	235	312	359	671	124	279	19	9	297	87	-3	-1	-1	+2	+4	0.2
2018	23	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	269	249	62	14	3	6	15	46	2	12	0	249	297	402	699	153	278	17	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	218	205	56	10	5	4	11	36	1	9	1	273	313	429	743	156	316	17	5	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	74	64	6	0	2	0	4	14	3	1	0	94	183	156	339	62	118	19	5	159	-6	-9	+0	+2	+2	+2	-0.4
2019	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	306	279	51	7	2	5	16	63	1	13	4	183	230	276	506	93	203	21	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	226	207	47	9	0	4	14	40	1	20	3	227	279	329	608	101	256	18	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	153	140	38	4	3	3	8	37	1	7	2	271	315	407	723	136	350	24	5	308	94	-1	+1	+3	+1	+3	0.7
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	675	606	172	38	5	27	56	125	8	30	8	284	352	497	849	213	322	19	8	370	137	+30	+3	+6	+2	+15	5.7
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	672	612	154	30	4	16	45	126	9	34	10	252	312	392	704	141	299	19	7	314	98	-1	+3	+8	+2	+15	2.6
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	455	405	92	22	3	15	42	101	1	19	3	227	301	407	709	180	271	22	9	311	97	-2	+3	+3	+2	+10	1.5
2023	28	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	20	20	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	150	150	150	300		160	10	0	124	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	499	449	102	15	3	18	41	98	5	32	6	227	299	394	693	167	261	20	8	309	95	-3	+4	-0	+2	+11	1.4
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	498	435	96	24	1	17	50	120	4	22	4	221	307	398	704	177	253	24	10	312	97	-2	+3	-1	+2	+11	1.3
2026	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	502	442	89	10	3	15	43	97	7	21	10	201	283	339	622	138	227	19	9	279	75	-15	+0	-1	+2	+11	-0.3
2016	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	559	532	118	29	8	12	22	135	1	30	6	222	254	374	628	152	273	24	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	559	517	141	37	10	14	37	101	1	30	6	273	323	464	787	191	314	18	7	343	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	350	322	78	16	1	11	18	73	0	9	7	242	282	401	683	158	275	21	5	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	—	350	309	82	19	1	13	27	58	0	9	7	265	321	460	780	194	283	17	8	332	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	678	624	158	33	8	14	43	119	5	23	4	253	307	399	706	146	292	18	6	306	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	678	613	168	38	8	16	54	104	5	23	4	274	338	440	778	166	307	15	8	343	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	606	549	104	16	4	9	35	117	5	34	7	189	244	282	527	93	220	19	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	606	531	115	19	4	10	51	96	5	34	7	217	290	324	614	107	242	16	8	272	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	153	140	38	4	3	3	8	37	1	7	2	271	315	407	723	136	350	24	5	308	94	-1	+1	+3	+1	+3	0.7
2020	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	153	140	38	4	3	3	8	37	1	7	2	271	315	407	723	136	350	24	5	313	94	-1	+1	+3	+1	+3	0.7
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	675	606	172	38	5	27	56	125	8	30	8	284	352	497	849	213	317	19	8	370	137	+30	+3	+6	+2	+15	5.7
2021	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	675	602	175	37	5	30	59	125	8	30	8	291	361	518	879	228	322	19	9	383	137	+30	+3	+6	+2	+15	5.7
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	672	612	154	30	4	16	45	126	9	34	10	252	312	392	704	141	291	19	7	314	98	-1	+3	+8	+2	+15	2.6
2022	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	672	608	157	32	4	16	47	126	9	34	10	258	320	403	723	145	299	19	7	320	98	-1	+3	+8	+2	+15	2.6
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	475	425	95	22	3	15	42	103	1	19	4	224	295	395	690	172	257	22	9	303	91	-5	+2	+3	+2	+10	1.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	475	424	97	23	3	15	43	103	1	19	4	229	301	403	705	175	265	22	9	309	91	-5	+2	+3	+2	+10	1.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	499	449	102	15	3	18	41	98	5	32	6	227	299	394	693	167	251	20	8	309	95	-3	+4	-0	+2	+11	1.4
2024	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	499	444	104	16	3	18	41	98	5	32	6	234	303	405	708	171	261	20	8	312	95	-3	+4	-0	+2	+11	1.4
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	498	435	96	24	1	17	50	120	4	22	4	221	307	398	704	177	260	24	10	312	97	-2	+3	-1	+2	+11	1.3
2025	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	498	435	94	23	1	17	50	120	4	22	4	216	303	391	693	175	253	24	10	306	97	-2	+3	-1	+2	+11	1.3
2026	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	502	442	89	10	3	15	43	97	7	21	10	201	283	339	622	138	222	19	9	279	75	-15	+0	-1	+2	+11	-0.3
2026	31	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	502	439	90	10	3	15	43	97	7	21	10	205	285	344	629	139	227	19	9	279	75	-15	+0	-1	+2	+11	-0.3
2016	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	559	531	118	29	8	12	22	135	1	30	6	222	254	375	629	153	269	24	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	350	329	78	16	1	11	18	73	0	9	7	237	282	392	674	155	262	21	5	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	678	625	158	33	8	14	43	119	5	23	4	253	307	398	705	146	291	18	6	306	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	606	561	104	16	4	9	35	117	5	34	7	185	244	276	521	91	212	19	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	153	143	38	4	3	3	8	37	1	7	2	266	315	399	714	133	350	24	5	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	675	606	172	38	5	27	56	125	8	30	8	284	352	497	849	213	322	19	8	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	672	613	154	30	4	16	45	126	9	34	10	251	312	392	704	140	299	19	7	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	475	429	95	22	3	15	42	103	1	19	4	221	295	392	686	170	266	22	9	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	499	450	102	15	3	18	41	98	5	32	6	227	299	393	692	167	261	20	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	498	441	96	24	1	17	50	120	4	22	4	218	307	392	699	175	253	24	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	502	447	89	10	3	15	43	97	7	21	10	199	283	336	618	136	227	19	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	499	450	102	15	3	18	41	98	5	32	6	227	299	393	692	167	261	20	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	498	441	96	24	1	17	50	120	4	22	4	218	307	392	699	175	253	24	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	502	447	89	10	3	15	43	97	7	21	10	199	283	336	618	136	227	19	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	100%	477	425	94	14	3	14	43	98	6	21	5	221	301	366	667	146	251	21	9	299	89	-6	+2	-1	+2	+10	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	100%	392	349	77	11	2	11	35	80	5	17	4	222	302	365	667	143	254	20	9	300	89	-5	+2	-1	+1	+8	0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	100%	356	318	68	10	2	10	31	75	4	11	3	214	293	350	643	136	246	21	9	290	82	-8	+1	-5	+1	+8	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	100%	356	318	69	10	2	10	31	75	4	11	3	215	294	349	644	134	249	21	9	290	82	-8	+1	-5	+1	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4075	3624	867	164	26	128	343	830	44	179	49	239	312	405	717	166	274	20	8	316	89	-1	+16	+13	+18	+88	13.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	138	26	4	20	55	132	7	29	8	239	312	401	713	163	274	20	8	316	89	-0	+3	+2	+3	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	6415	5803	1350	259	47	179	469	1305	55	289	75	233	296	386	682	153	268	20	7	299	89	-6	+18	+12	+20	+97	14.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	137	26	5	18	48	132	6	29	8	233	298	386	684	153	269	20	7	299	89	-1	+3	+2	+3	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AABowie Baysox · 20 PAwOBA .132 → .124 (−8)K% 10.0% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.00%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	12.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.958	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.965	×0.970	—	×0.958	16.05%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.046	×0.860	—	×0.958	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.998	×0.950	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.208	×0.780	—	×0.958	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .132 → .124; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 306 PAwOBA .253 → .219 (−33)K% 16.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	20.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.17%	÷1.103	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.28%
HBP% /PA	0.33%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.32%
Singles /BIP	18.43%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	16.29%
Doubles /BIP	3.69%	÷0.990	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	3.03%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷0.954	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	2.30%	÷0.889	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.25%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 95, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .253 → .219; ISO .101 → .098; BABIP .231 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AABowie Baysox · 226 PAwOBA .327 → .273 (−55)K% 13.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.72%	÷0.940	×1.220	—	—	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.29%	÷1.020	×0.700	—	×0.998	6.36%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.38%
Singles /BIP	22.62%	÷1.031	×0.970	×0.950	×0.998	20.17%
Doubles /BIP	6.55%	÷0.987	×0.860	×0.950	×0.998	5.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.116	×0.950	×0.950	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.98%	÷0.987	×0.780	—	×0.998	2.35%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 123, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .327 → .273; ISO .131 → .107; BABIP .293 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 269 PAwOBA .330 → .297 (−33)K% 14.5% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.50%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	17.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.81%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.66%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.73%
Singles /BIP	19.21%	÷0.984	×0.930	×1.001	×1.048	19.05%
Doubles /BIP	8.37%	÷1.063	×0.830	×1.001	×1.048	6.86%
Triples /BIP	1.48%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.001	×1.048	1.31%
Home runs /BIP	2.96%	÷0.964	×0.840	—	×1.048	2.70%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .330 → .297; ISO .169 → .149; BABIP .298 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 218 PAwOBA .374 → .326 (−48)K% 12.8% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.84%	÷0.960	×1.220	—	—	16.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.88%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.012	4.98%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.39%
Singles /BIP	23.12%	÷0.996	×0.970	×0.964	×1.012	21.96%
Doubles /BIP	6.94%	÷0.971	×0.860	×0.964	×1.012	5.99%
Triples /BIP	2.89%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.964	×1.012	2.98%
Home runs /BIP	3.47%	÷1.060	×0.780	—	×1.012	2.58%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .374 → .326; ISO .199 → .167; BABIP .339 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABowie Baysox · 350 PAwOBA .328 → .289 (−39)K% 16.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.57%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	20.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.43%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.03%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.52%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.976	×1.027	19.11%
Doubles /BIP	7.57%	÷1.043	×0.860	×0.976	×1.027	6.25%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷1.016	×0.950	×0.976	×1.027	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	5.18%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×1.027	4.16%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 103, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .328 → .289; ISO .194 → .163; BABIP .283 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 559 PAwOBA .335 → .267 (−68)K% 18.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.07%	÷1.001	×1.340	—	—	24.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.62%	÷1.079	×0.660	—	—	4.05%
HBP% /PA	0.18%	—	×0.770	—	—	0.14%
Singles /BIP	19.23%	÷1.015	×0.920	×0.987	—	17.20%
Doubles /BIP	8.89%	÷1.008	×0.820	×0.987	—	7.14%
Triples /BIP	2.40%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.987	—	1.94%
Home runs /BIP	3.37%	÷0.928	×0.820	—	—	2.97%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .335 → .267; ISO .191 → .154; BABIP .314 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	6.7	4,467	140	196	237	307	400	+11	+12	15.3	15.3
/162	664	21	29	+1.6	+1.8	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#3Chad Curtis'92-'01 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,650 PA	7.0	4,650	101	212	253*	335*	391*	-14	-3	12.4	11.8
/162	664	14	30	-2.1	-0.4	1.8	pk7: 11
#4Mike Devereaux'87-'98 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,102 PA	6.2	4,102	105	85	248*	302*	416*	-3	+0	8.3	10.2
/162	664	17	14	-0.6	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 12
#5Oddibe McDowell'85-'94 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,172 PA	4.8	3,172	74	169	250*	322*	411*	+4	-12	9.2	9.2
/162	664	15	35	+0.8	-2.5	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cedric Mullins (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	219/298/363	144	251	12	17	20%	9%	89	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2019 · MLB	32	46→50	46→45	56→60	45	228/288/361	133	290	14	23	26%	7%	83	+0.1	198/263/321	123	283	14	16	33%	7%	65	-1.2	148/216/240	92	221	11	15	37%	6%	28	-2.4
✕Reggie Taylor 2009 · AAA	32	51→56	47→50	54→55	47	254/301/390	136	291	15	23	19%	6%	95	+0.9	222/268/349	127	270	13	13	23%	6%	73	-0.6	188/221/310	122	224	12	3	23%	4%	43	-0.9
✕Dewayne Wise 2010 · MLB	32	48→40	50→60	56→55	42	241/286/407	166	280	16	22	21%	5%	93	+0.8	238/276/393	155	290	15	21	23%	4%	86	+0.3	238/273/396	158	291	16	27	24%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Wynton Bernard 2023 · MLB	32	49→59	46→45	62→60	44	242/286/382	140	287	13	30	21%	5%	86	+0.3	236/282/346	110	292	9	33	22%	6%	77	-0.3	231/279/323	91	291	7	39	22%	5%	66	-0.8
✕George Lombard 2007 · MLB	31	44→43	50	59→55	43	222/292/377	155	300	17	25	31%	8%	88	+0.5	222/287/356	134	315	14	23	32%	7%	82	-0.0	210/274/313	104	298	12	32	32%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Jace Peterson 2021 · MLB	31	47→57	47→50	55	53	235/315/382	147	285	14	18	22%	10%	98	+1.2	232/318/369	137	296	14	18	25%	11%	97	+1.1	222/312/344	122	285	12	20	25%	11%	89	+0.3
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2021 · MLB	31	44→54	49→55	59→55	46	225/288/384	159	272	15	21	24%	7%	88	+0.5	244/307/386	142	313	12	17	25%	8%	96	+1.0	249/311/390	141	319	11	17	24%	7%	99	+0.7
✕Jonathan Davis 2024 · MLB	32	46→52	44→45	55	48	224/301/347	123	296	11	21	27%	9%	85	+0.2	217/291/331	114	310	10	14	31%	8%	78	-0.3	188/273/268	80	289	6	14	34%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Andy Fox 2003 · MLB	32	50→52	41→40	58→60	52	238/317/335	97	285	8	28	19%	9%	88	+0.4	215/288/314	99	272	8	17	23%	8%	72	-0.7	193/267/257	64	262	0	5	24%	6%	52	-0.4
✕Leonys Martin 2019 · MLB	31	48→56	49→50	54→60	44	243/297/392	149	301	16	21	25%	7%	93	+0.8	229/297/384	155	290	19	12	27%	8%	92	+0.7	196/272/338	142	249	21	9	30%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Tim Locastro 2024 · MLB	32	40→50	45	56→60	40	201/281/322	122	255	12	24	25%	5%	73	-0.6	222/301/340	118	272	11	29	22%	6%	84	+0.2	219/299/327	108	266	9	38	20%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Justin Leone 2009 · AAA	32	39	49→50	52→55	50	205/285/355	150	258	17	18	27%	10%	81	-0.1	191/261/317	126	270	13	13	32%	8%	63	-1.3	124/191/212	89	184	9	6	37%	7%	13	-2.0
●Michael Tucker 2003 · MLB	32	49→51	50→55	54→55	54	247/324/411	164	288	16	21	20%	10%	107	+1.9	249/325/405	156	294	15	12	19%	10%	107	+1.8	247/327/398	151	289	14	8	19%	10%	106	+1.3
✕Damian Jackson 2006 · MLB	32	50→54	44→45	53→55	54	246/319/361	115	280	12	23	17%	9%	95	+0.9	236/316/383	147	288	16	13	23%	9%	99	+1.3	193/289/361	168	250	18	4	29%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Rafael Ortega 2023 · MLB	32	50→55	48→55	48→55	54	248/326/390	142	292	16	18	20%	10%	103	+1.6	217/303/341	124	268	13	21	22%	11%	84	+0.2	200/296/311	111	248	11	26	23%	12%	74	-0.4
✕Will Venable 2015 · MLB	32	49→55	49→55	54→60	45	248/301/402	154	299	16	20	23%	7%	97	+1.1	223/283/334	111	283	11	16	24%	7%	75	-0.5	210/273/301	92	270	9	17	24%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Mark Payton 2024 · MLB	32	46→51	46→55	50	48	228/285/361	133	262	12	13	19%	7%	82	-0.0	238/291/355	117	292	10	9	21%	7%	82	+0.0	243/295/350	107	298	8	5	20%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Dylan Moore 2024 · MLB	31	43→49	52→55	55→65	50	217/320/390	173	294	19	29	31%	10%	103	+1.5	206/299/361	155	279	16	32	30%	10%	88	+0.5	189/278/324	136	257	15	36	31%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Andy Burns 2022 · MLB	31	43→53	47→50	51→55	51	217/297/356	140	273	15	15	25%	10%	86	+0.3	203/274/313	110	283	11	12	30%	9%	68	-1.0	174/245/259	85	244	9	8	31%	8%	42	-1.6
✕Drew Stubbs 2017 · MLB	32	46→56	48→50	57→60	46	224/301/365	141	321	16	26	33%	9%	89	+0.5	216/291/331	115	324	12	16	34%	9%	78	-0.3	199/276/290	91	309	9	13	35%	9%	60	-1.0

Cedric Mullins

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps