Rafael OrtegaCF Cardenales de Lara
Age 35 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs INTL Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 249 proj PA
wRC+†92
AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .311 / .364
PA249
HR6
SB8
K%23
BB%11
ISO141
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -2.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +1.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +7.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.50.1-0.12628
Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 32
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024
CONTACT46
Whiff%
748.5%
xwOBA
500.309
POWER32
Barrel%
133.4
Avg EV
2387.0
Bat Spd
4270.5
EYE58
Chase%
6828.3%
SPEED55
Sprint
2226.1
DEFENSE55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2016
Service   10.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2026
First FA Year   2027
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt / FA-deal$1M
Totals $1M $0.0M -$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
200817 ROKDSL Rockies 218196 45321 12292 173 230281281562 51262 136 237 40
200817 ROKDSL Rockies 218188 52421 20202 173 277352335687 59302 99 305 92
200918 ROKDSL Rockies 303272 72560 17332 3912 265313327640 62294 116 284 76
200918 ROKDSL Rockies 303256 83780 32232 3912 324402414816 90347 811 354 129
201019 ROK2 teams 409381 1081637 19773 2812 283323396719 113338 195 311 96
201019 ROK2 teams 409364 1191857 36593 2812 327392462854 135373 149 376 146
201120 AAsheville Tourists 519491 1051374 161363 3219 214243293536 79285 263 230 34
201120 AAsheville Tourists 519479 1412689 28903 3219 294337438776 144344 175 338 117
201221 A+2 teams 647591 14523612 391434 3820 245297365662 120300 226 285 76
201221 A+2 teams 647575 1642788 551034 3820 285352402753 117331 169 332 113
201322 AA2 teams 290263 52721 23553 116 198270251521 53246 198 235 38
201322 AA2 teams 290258 60921 28413 116 233315295609 62273 1410 283 75
201423 AA3 teams 464420 99935 32901 1810 236291307599 71286 197 262 59
201423 AA3 teams 464403 981037 49661 1810 243327335662 92272 1411 297 85
201524 AAAMemphis Redbirds 502455 1082061 37982 176 237298314612 77299 207 271 66
201524 AAAMemphis Redbirds 502437 1252262 55712 176 286368378746 92336 1411 334 114
201625 AAA3 teams 669628 1552755 29943 2211 247283330613 83283 144 265 61
201625 AAA3 teams 669615 17231125 40813 2211 280326393719 114315 126 317 101
201726 AAA2 teams 717648 1643986 57953 3214 253316366682 113286 138 297 85
201726 AAA2 teams 717619 198381012 86733 3214 320405472877 152344 1012 386 154
201827 AAA3 teams 678610 14119133 58854 195 231302320622 89264 139 272 67
201827 AAA3 teams 678594 15927143 73694 195 268351375727 108299 1011 327 108
201928 AAA2 teams 589542 12231224 441492 177 225286423708 197265 257 305 91
201928 AAA2 teams 589519 14137323 671172 177 272357487845 216311 2011 372 143
202029 INTLCaribes de Anzoategui 152123 37814 26151 21 301427480906 179317 1017
202029 INTLCaribes de Anzoategui 152123 37814 26151 21 301427480906 179317 1017 400 164
202130 MLB2 teams 403364 9816214 35852 137 269337440776 170317 219 339 117 +8 -0 -4 +1 +11 1.7
202130 MLB2 teams 403360 10217215 38832 137 283354467821 183332 219 362 135 +16 -0 -4 +1 +11 2.5
202231 MLBChicago Cubs 371317 761417 44742 127 240336356693 117284 2012 301 88 -5 -0 -0 +1 +11 0.7
202231 MLBChicago Cubs 371316 761417 44742 127 241336358694 117285 2012 310 96 -2 -0 -0 +1 +11 1.0
202332 AAA2 teams 475409 832009 601072 209 203308318626 115251 2313 280 73
202332 AAA2 teams 475395 8921010 74902 209 225350354705 129266 1916 323 105
202433 AAA2 teams 330282 6613210 39801 198 234329401730 167281 2412 313 98
202433 AAA2 teams 330263 7315211 58661 198 278410475885 198321 2018 386 153
202534 INTL4 teams 346318 7532010 20823 126 236287431718 195283 246 306 92
202534 INTL4 teams 346283 801719 55533 126 283405445850 163316 1516 378 147
▸ 2026 Season
202635 MLBNYM 249219 501216 27581 82 228316374690 146277 2311 306 92 -2 +1 -1 +1 +7 0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202736 MLBNYM 0% 182160 35814 19441 41 219306356662 138269 2410 293 83 -4 +0 -7 +1 +5 -0.4
202837 MLBNYM 0% 121107 21502 13300 10 196283299582 103259 2511 280 72 -4 +0 -7 +0 +3 -0.7
202736 MLBNYM 0% 01 0000 000 00 268 290 80 -0 +0
202837 MLBNYM 0% 01 0000 000 00 259 277 70 -0 +0
▸ Career Totals
Career 12951148 28045422 1272495 4819 244322348669 104292 1910 302 89 -15 +2 -2 -15 +37 0.6
/ 162G 650576 14123211 641253 2410 245324349673 104293 1910 302 89 -8 +1 -1 -8 +18 0.3
Career 86347796 185734071135 666165945 381166 238302352654 114284 198 278 71 -281 +10 -17 +3 +245 -4.2
/ 162G 650587 14026510 501253 2912 239301351652 112285 198 278 71 -21 +1 -1 +0 +18 -0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
200817 ROKDSL Rockies 218188 52421 20202 173 277352335687 59302 99 305 92 -2 +2 +6 0.7
200918 ROKDSL Rockies 303256 83780 32232 3912 324402414816 90347 811 354 129 +10 +3 +9 2.2
201019 ROKCasper Ghosts 322288 1031737 28422 239 358418510929 153398 139 407 170 +25 +1 +9 3.6
201019 INTLTiburones de La Guaira 8776 16120 8171 53 211294276570 66271 209 260 57 -4 -0 +2 -0.2
201120 AAsheville Tourists 519479 1412689 28903 3219 294337438776 144344 175 338 117 +10 -1 +15 2.4
201221 A+Modesto Nuts 556495 1402388 46934 3618 283349410759 127329 178 334 114 +9 +0 +16 2.5
201221 INTLTiburones de La Guaira 9180 24400 9100 22 300371350721 50343 1110 324 106 +1 -0 +3 0.3
201322 AATulsa Drillers 178158 36421 19261 94 228315297612 70267 1511 285 76 -5 +0 +5 0.0
201322 INTLTiburones de La Guaira 112100 24500 9152 22 240315290605 50282 138 280 72 -3 -0 +3 -0.1
201423 AAAMemphis Redbirds 2321 5100 250 20 238304286590 48312 229 274 68 -1 +0 +1 0.0
201423 AASpringfield Cardinals 414358 89837 45571 1610 249334346681 98275 1411 305 91 -4 -1 +12 0.7
201423 INTLTiburones de La Guaira 2724 4100 240 00 167231208439 42200 157 200 11 -3 +0 +1 -0.2
201524 AAAMemphis Redbirds 502437 1252262 55712 176 286368378746 92336 1411 334 114 +8 +1 +14 2.4
201625 MLBLos Angeles Angels 202185 43801 13230 83 232281292573 59261 116 258 56 -10 +0 +2 -7 +6 -0.9
201625 AAASalt Lake Bees 341322 1021874 15391 148 317349453803 137350 114 352 127 +11 -0 +10 2.0
201625 INTLCaribes de Anzoategui 126108 27550 12192 00 250333389722 139303 1510 315 99 -0 +0 +4 0.4
201726 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas 472419 1333176 46491 267 317386468854 150345 1010 375 145 +24 +2 +13 4.1
201726 INTLVenezuela 245200 65736 40242 67 325442480922 155343 1016 408 171 +20 -2 +7 2.5
201827 MLBMiami Marlins 143133 31310 10230 52 233287271557 38282 167 258 56 -7 +0 -1 -7 +4 -1.2
201827 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes 328280 7710102 44311 121 275375404779 129304 913 349 125 +9 +2 +9 2.1
201827 INTLCaribes de Anzoategui 207181 511431 19153 22 282358409767 127303 79 339 118 +4 -0 +6 1.0
201928 MLBAtlanta Braves 9688 18302 8220 30 205271307578 102250 238 264 60 -4 +1 +0 -6 +3 -0.7
201928 AAAGwinnett Stripers 493431 12334321 59952 147 285374524898 239323 1912 393 159 +33 +0 +14 4.8
202029 INTLCaribes de Anzoategui 152123 37814 26151 21 301427480906 179317 1017 400 164 +11 +0 +4 1.6
202130 MLBChicago Cubs 330296 8614211 30702 126 291360463823 172349 219 363 136 +13 +0 -4 +1 +9 2.1
202130 AAAIowa Cubs 7364 16304 8130 11 250329484813 234255 1811 355 130 +2 -0 +2 0.4
202231 MLBChicago Cubs 371316 761417 44742 127 241336358694 117285 2012 310 96 -2 -0 -0 +1 +11 1.0
202332 MLBNew York Mets 136114 25301 20331 61 219341272613 53300 2415 291 81 -3 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.4
202332 AAASyracuse Mets 339281 641809 54571 148 228354388742 160253 1716 336 115 +6 -0 +10 1.5
202433 MLBChicago White Sox 1714 1000 240 20 7118871259 91 2412 135 -38 -3 +0 +0 +1 +0 -0.1
202433 AAACharlotte Knights 313249 7215211 56621 178 289422498920 209335 2018 399 164 +23 +0 +9 3.2
202534 AAASyracuse Mets 4038 9202 170 10 237256447704 211233 182 299 87 -1 +0 +1 0.1
202534 A+Brooklyn Cyclones 2524 2100 170 11 83120125245 42118 284 115 -53 -4 -0 +1 -0.4
202534 ASt. Lucie Mets 2721 9501 530 20 4295388101.348 381444 1119 545 275 +5 +0 +1 0.7
202534 INTLCardenales de Lara 254200 60916 48363 85 300442445887 145338 1419 398 163 +18 -0 +7 2.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 12951146 28045422 1272495 4819 244322348670 104292 1910 302 89 -15 +2 -2 -15 +37 0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Eric Sogardlast yr '21
career totals — 10 seasons, 2,484 PA
102,4842646246312337+10+226.06.6
/162664712+2.7+5.91.6pk7: 7
#2Willie Harrislast yr '11
career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA
102,74339106241331351-11-25.36.2
/162664926-2.7-0.51.3pk7: 7
#3Jace Petersonlast yr '23
career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA
102,7534277228318337+4+55.36.0
/1626641019+1.0+1.31.3pk7: 7
#4Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA
91,5192019240310353+10+134.04.4
/16266498+4.2+5.51.8pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA
72,1983552238326354-4-34.34.3
/1626641116-1.3-0.81.3pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons
91,8303460238315351+2-43.53.6
/1626641222+0.8-1.51.3pk7: 4
#6Chris Woodwardlast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,835 PA
91,835339242299370+2-02.22.7
/162664123+0.6-0.00.8pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Rafael Ortega (OGILVIE) 35 46 32 55 58 224/311/364 140277 68 23% 11% 92 +0.5
Flavio Romero
2015 · AAA
35 43→53 43→45 48→60 51 215/296/322 107277 1220 26% 10% 75 -0.0 221/302/304 83283 817 23% 10% 72 -0.2 240/325/2975729642119%10%76+0.1
Jerry Owens
2016 · AAA
35 54→64 42→30 57→65 48 258/314/372 114317 821 21% 7% 93 +1.3 267/310/367 100313 814 17% 5% 91 +1.1 374/402/4194542001410%4%137+0.8
Ramon Valdez
2012 · AAA
35 48 39→40 53→55 45 231/291/319 88280 618 19% 6% 71 -0.3 256/330/338 82287 522 12% 7% 92 +1.2 274/354/3376330332610%7%99+0.7
Grégor Blanco
2019 · MLB
35 48→58 42→45 56→60 49 232/297/340 108300 818 24% 9% 79 +0.3 219/286/355 136277 1513 25% 8% 79 +0.3 197/271/334138240171326%9%66-0.4
Nyjer Morgan
2016 · MLB
36 47→57 45 53→65 47 232/291/356 124282 1315 22% 8% 81 +0.4 237/302/367 130275 1320 19% 7% 89 +0.9 235/303/358123270122618%7%84+0.5
Roger Bernadina
2019 · AAA
35 47→57 44→45 53→60 44 227/291/346 119307 1118 28% 7% 78 +0.2 250/299/377 127317 1410 25% 6% 89 +1.0 286/333/39310736113423%6%102+0.4
Charlie Culberson
2023 · MLB
34 48→49 45 47→50 44 238/287/366 127298 1213 24% 6% 81 +0.4 226/275/342 116315 1212 30% 6% 70 -0.3 182/208/2254329551439%3%11-0.8
Don Kelly
2015 · MLB
35 49→59 41→45 53→55 57 234/316/330 96265 913 15% 10% 85 +0.7 207/282/292 85249 78 18% 9% 60 -1.0 158/225/200422002221%8%11-1.9
Curtis Pride
2005 · MLB
36 48 45 51→55 42 238/292/367 129301 1212 25% 6% 84 +0.6 242/317/377 135328 1218 28% 10% 97 +1.5 235/315/360125328112129%10%90+0.5
Andrew Romine
2021 · MLB
35 47→56 44→45 54→55 43 231/279/343 112277 1219 21% 5% 72 -0.2 235/283/328 93302 89 24% 6% 69 -0.4 243/290/307643183323%6%62-0.5
Matt Treanor
2010 · MLB
34 50 43→40 48→40 51 242/318/352 109293 116 20% 9% 92 +1.2 214/306/314 100256 106 19% 10% 77 +0.1 196/300/280842369419%11%64-0.3
Joe Thurston
2014 · AAA
34 49→58 45 46→50 50 238/309/361 123281 1212 20% 8% 90 +1.0 236/295/334 98274 810 16% 7% 76 +0.1 240/297/310702735714%6%68-0.3
Willie Bloomquist
2013 · MLB
35 57→56 39→40 48→60 46 272/310/366 94314 519 15% 5% 89 +1.0 267/306/351 84315 59 16% 5% 85 +0.7 299/334/358593502215%4%93+0.3
Manny Alexander
2006 · MLB
35 49→50 45 54→55 45 240/290/365 125284 1123 20% 6% 82 +0.5 220/262/311 91262 714 18% 5% 56 -1.3 210/249/2837324951017%4%39-1.7
Alex Cora
2011 · MLB
35 49→53 38→45 51→50 54 228/296/310 82246 413 10% 7% 71 -0.3 227/291/322 95256 711 14% 7% 72 -0.2 222/285/272512590713%7%54-0.4
Trinidad Robles
2008 · AAA
35 49 44→40 46→45 46 240/294/359 119286 1210 20% 6% 82 +0.5 216/271/300 84268 77 21% 6% 57 -1.2 220/277/248282870021%5%43-0.9
Quinton McCracken
2006 · MLB
35 51→61 39→40 49→50 54 239/304/323 85274 611 15% 8% 77 +0.1 243/300/347 104280 911 16% 7% 81 +0.4 257/296/3317429761115%5%70-0.1
Erick Aybar
2019 · MLB
35 49→59 43→50 47→60 51 240/303/354 114271 1113 16% 7% 85 +0.7 246/322/386 140287 149 18% 9% 102 +1.8 247/328/38113429012618%9%101+1.2
Chris Dickerson
2017 · MLB
35 51→55 46→50 55→60 44 247/308/382 135337 1319 29% 8% 95 +1.4 229/309/369 140327 1412 32% 9% 92 +1.2 214/311/350136311141132%11%84+0.4
Jarrod Dyson
2020 · MLB
35 47→57 41→45 61→70 55 226/306/320 94262 935 17% 10% 78 +0.2 218/286/311 93267 830 20% 8% 66 -0.6 199/253/2767726104022%7%41-0.6