Rafael Ortega

CF Cardenales de Lara

Age 36 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs INTL H -5% Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

INTLExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	33	AAACWS	313	.289/.422/.498	11	17	91	—	.226/.317/.374
2024	33	MLBCWS	17	.071/.188/.071	0	2	-22	-0.0
2025	34	AAA/A+/A/INTL2 orgs	346	.283/.405/.445	9	12	131	—	.218/.257/.388
2026	35	INTLCardenales de…	51	.333/.451/.548	2	3	184	—
2027PROJMLE	36	MLBNYM	190	.235/.311/.373	4	5	93	0.2
2028PROJMLE	37	MLBNYM	0	.217/.291/.336	0	0	82	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service11.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

xwOBA50

Bat Spd42

Avg EV23

Speed22

Barrel%13

CompsNyjer Morgan (age 36) · Curtis Pride (age 36) · Grégor Blanco (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 118 proj PA

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .308 / .370

PA118

HR3

K%23

BB%9

ISO138

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT

xAVG

310.236

POWER

Barrel%

133.4

Avg EV

2387.0

Bat Spd

4270.5

SPEED

Sprint

2226.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2008	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	218	188	52	4	2	1	20	20	2	17	3	277	352	335	687	59	302	9	9	305	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	303	256	83	7	8	0	32	23	2	39	12	324	402	414	816	90	347	8	11	354	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK	Casper Ghosts	—	322	288	103	17	3	7	28	42	2	23	9	358	418	510	929	153	398	13	9	407	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	87	76	16	1	2	0	8	17	1	5	3	211	294	276	570	66	271	20	9	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A	Asheville Tourists	—	519	479	141	26	8	9	28	90	3	32	19	294	337	438	776	144	344	17	5	338	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	556	495	140	23	8	8	46	93	4	36	18	283	349	410	759	127	329	17	8	334	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	91	80	24	4	0	0	9	10	0	2	2	300	371	350	721	50	343	11	10	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	178	158	36	4	2	1	19	26	1	9	4	228	315	297	612	70	267	15	11	285	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	112	100	24	5	0	0	9	15	2	2	2	240	315	290	605	50	282	13	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	23	21	5	1	0	0	2	5	0	2	0	238	304	286	590	48	312	22	9	274	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	414	358	89	8	3	7	45	57	1	16	10	249	334	346	681	98	275	14	11	305	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	27	24	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	167	231	208	439	42	200	15	7	200	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	502	437	125	22	6	2	55	71	2	17	6	286	368	378	746	92	336	14	11	334	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	202	185	43	8	0	1	13	23	0	8	3	232	281	292	573	59	261	11	6	258	62	-9	+0	+2	-7	+4	-0.9
2016	25	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	341	322	102	18	7	4	15	39	1	14	8	317	349	453	803	137	350	11	4	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	126	108	27	5	5	0	12	19	2	0	0	250	333	389	722	139	303	15	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	472	419	133	31	7	6	46	49	1	26	7	317	386	468	854	150	345	10	10	375	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	INTL	Venezuela	—	245	200	65	7	3	6	40	24	2	6	7	325	442	480	922	155	343	10	16	408	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	143	133	31	3	1	0	10	23	0	5	2	233	287	271	557	38	282	16	7	258	65	-6	+0	-1	-7	+3	-1.2
2018	27	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	328	280	77	10	10	2	44	31	1	12	1	275	375	404	779	129	304	9	13	349	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	207	181	51	14	3	1	19	15	3	2	2	282	358	409	767	127	303	7	9	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	96	88	18	3	0	2	8	22	0	3	0	205	271	307	578	102	250	23	8	264	65	-4	+1	+0	-6	+2	-0.8
2019	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	493	431	123	34	3	21	59	95	2	14	7	285	374	524	898	239	323	19	12	393	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	152	123	37	8	1	4	26	15	1	2	1	301	427	480	906	179	317	10	17	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	330	296	86	14	2	11	30	70	2	12	6	291	360	463	823	172	349	21	9	363	130	+12	+0	-4	+1	+7	1.7
2021	30	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	73	64	16	3	0	4	8	13	0	1	1	250	329	484	813	234	255	18	11	355	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	371	316	76	14	1	7	44	74	2	12	7	241	336	358	694	117	285	20	12	310	93	-3	-0	-0	+1	+8	0.6
2023	32	MLB	New York Mets	—	136	114	25	3	0	1	20	33	1	6	1	219	341	272	613	53	300	24	15	291	87	-2	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.4
2023	32	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	339	281	64	18	0	9	54	57	1	14	8	228	354	388	742	160	253	17	16	336	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	17	14	1	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	0	71	188	71	259		91	24	12	135	-22	-2	+0	+0	+1	+0	-0.0
2024	33	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	313	249	72	15	2	11	56	62	1	17	8	289	422	498	920	209	335	20	18	399	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	40	38	9	2	0	2	1	7	0	1	0	237	256	447	704	211	233	18	2	299	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	25	24	2	1	0	0	1	7	0	1	1	83	120	125	245	42	118	28	4	115	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	27	21	9	5	0	1	5	3	0	2	0	429	538	810	1.348	381	444	11	19	545	218	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	254	200	60	9	1	6	48	36	3	8	5	300	442	445	887	145	338	14	19	398	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	51	42	14	3	0	2	8	4	1	3	1	333	451	548	999	214	333	8	16	441	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1295	1146	280	45	4	22	127	249	5	48	19	244	322	348	670	104	292	19	10	302	91	-14	+2	-2	-15	+28	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2008	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	218	194	38	3	1	1	14	24	2	17	3	196	257	237	494	41	207	11	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	303	270	61	5	5	0	19	28	2	39	12	226	282	281	563	56	236	9	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	322	301	85	13	2	5	15	61	2	23	9	282	321	389	709	106	333	19	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	519	490	114	16	7	5	17	128	3	32	19	233	263	324	587	92	296	25	3	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	556	508	126	19	6	9	33	123	4	36	18	248	299	362	661	114	297	22	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	178	163	35	4	2	1	14	32	1	9	4	215	281	282	563	67	256	18	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	23	22	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	2	0	182	217	227	445	45	286	26	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	414	372	88	7	3	5	31	72	1	16	10	237	297	312	609	75	270	17	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	502	452	115	20	6	1	40	95	2	17	6	254	318	332	650	77	309	19	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	202	186	43	8	0	1	13	23	0	8	3	231	281	290	572	59	261	11	6	260	62	-9	+0	+2	-7	+4	-0.9
2016	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	341	326	89	15	5	3	11	52	1	14	8	273	299	377	676	104	312	15	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	472	431	113	26	5	4	34	63	1	26	7	262	318	374	691	111	292	13	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	143	133	31	3	1	0	10	23	0	5	2	233	287	271	557	38	282	16	7	264	65	-6	+0	-1	-7	+3	-1.2
2018	27	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	328	294	67	9	8	2	30	38	1	12	1	228	302	333	635	105	252	12	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	96	88	18	3	0	2	8	22	0	3	0	205	271	307	578	102	250	23	8	264	65	-4	+1	+0	-6	+2	-0.8
2019	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	493	452	102	27	2	19	38	120	2	14	7	226	289	420	709	195	267	24	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	330	297	86	14	2	11	29	70	2	12	6	290	357	461	818	172	349	21	9	361	130	+12	+0	-4	+1	+7	1.7
2021	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	73	68	13	2	0	3	5	15	0	1	1	191	247	353	600	162	204	21	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	371	319	76	14	1	7	42	74	2	12	7	238	331	354	685	116	285	20	11	306	93	-3	-0	-0	+1	+8	0.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	136	114	26	3	0	1	20	33	1	6	1	228	348	281	629	53	300	24	15	297	87	-2	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.4
2023	32	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	339	298	54	15	0	6	37	71	1	14	8	181	274	292	566	111	211	21	11	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	17	14	1	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	0	71	188	71	259		91	24	12	135	-22	-2	+0	+0	+1	+0	-0.0
2024	33	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	313	270	61	12	2	8	35	75	1	17	8	226	317	374	691	148	266	24	11	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	40	38	7	2	0	1	1	9	0	1	0	184	205	316	521	132	195	22	2	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	25	24	2	1	0	0	1	9	0	1	1	83	120	125	245	42	91	36	4	74	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	27	23	9	5	0	1	3	4	0	2	0	391	462	739	1.201	348	387	15	11	490	218	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	218	194	38	3	1	1	14	24	2	17	3	196	257	237	494	41	216	11	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	218	188	52	4	2	1	20	20	2	17	3	277	352	335	687	59	302	9	9	305	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	303	270	61	5	5	0	19	28	2	39	12	226	282	281	563	56	246	9	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	303	256	83	7	8	0	32	23	2	39	12	324	402	414	816	90	347	8	11	354	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	409	380	109	16	3	7	20	77	3	28	12	287	328	400	728	113	342	19	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	409	364	119	18	5	7	36	59	3	28	12	327	392	462	854	135	373	14	9	376	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	519	490	114	16	7	5	17	128	3	32	19	233	263	324	587	92	302	25	3	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	519	479	141	26	8	9	28	90	3	32	19	294	337	438	776	144	344	17	5	338	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	647	591	147	23	7	10	39	144	4	38	20	249	300	362	662	113	309	22	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	647	575	164	27	8	8	55	103	4	38	20	285	352	402	753	117	331	16	9	332	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	290	263	56	7	3	1	23	52	3	11	6	213	284	274	558	61	262	18	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	290	258	60	9	2	1	28	41	3	11	6	233	315	295	609	62	273	14	10	283	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	464	418	98	9	3	5	34	83	1	18	10	234	294	306	600	72	278	18	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	464	403	98	10	3	7	49	66	1	18	10	243	327	335	662	92	272	14	11	297	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	502	452	115	20	6	1	40	95	2	17	6	254	318	332	650	77	318	19	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	502	437	125	22	6	2	55	71	2	17	6	286	368	378	746	92	336	14	11	334	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	669	628	162	28	6	5	29	92	3	22	11	258	294	346	639	88	295	14	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	669	615	172	31	12	5	40	81	3	22	11	280	326	393	719	114	315	12	6	317	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	717	653	172	39	8	7	52	95	3	32	14	263	321	380	700	116	296	13	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	717	619	198	38	10	12	86	73	3	32	14	320	405	472	877	152	344	10	12	386	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	678	610	141	18	13	2	58	88	4	19	5	231	302	313	615	82	267	13	9	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	678	594	159	27	14	3	73	69	4	19	5	268	351	375	727	108	299	10	11	327	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	589	540	120	30	2	21	46	142	2	17	7	222	286	402	688	180	262	24	8	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	589	519	141	37	3	23	67	117	2	17	7	272	357	487	845	216	311	20	11	372	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL MLE	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	152	123	37	8	1	4	26	15	1	2	1	301	427	480	906	179	317	10	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL RAW	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	152	123	37	8	1	4	26	15	1	2	1	301	427	480	906	179	317	10	17	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	403	365	99	16	2	14	34	85	2	13	7	271	337	441	778	170	320	21	8	342	117	+8	-0	-4	+1	+9	1.5
2021	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	403	360	102	17	2	15	38	83	2	13	7	283	354	467	821	183	332	21	9	362	117	+8	-0	-4	+1	+9	1.5
2022	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	371	319	76	14	1	7	42	74	2	12	7	238	331	354	685	116	282	20	11	306	93	-3	-0	-0	+1	+8	0.6
2022	31	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	371	316	76	14	1	7	44	74	2	12	7	241	336	358	694	117	285	20	12	310	93	-3	-0	-0	+1	+8	0.6
2023	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	475	412	79	18	0	7	57	104	2	20	9	192	293	286	579	95	238	22	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	475	395	89	21	0	10	74	90	2	20	9	225	350	354	705	129	266	19	16	323	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	284	62	12	2	8	37	79	1	19	8	218	311	359	670	141	265	24	11	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	330	263	73	15	2	11	58	66	1	19	8	278	410	475	885	198	321	20	18	386	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	346	321	64	26	0	8	17	81	3	12	6	199	246	355	601	156	237	23	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	INTL RAW	4 teams	—	346	283	80	17	1	9	55	53	3	12	6	283	405	445	850	163	316	15	16	378	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	INTL MLE	Cardenales de Lara	—	51	42	14	3	0	2	8	4	1	3	1	333	451	548	999	214	333	8	16	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	INTL RAW	Cardenales de Lara	—	51	42	14	3	0	2	8	4	1	3	1	333	451	548	999	214	333	8	16	441	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	218	200	38	3	1	1	14	24	2	17	3	190	257	230	487	40	207	11	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	303	279	61	5	5	0	19	28	2	39	12	219	282	272	554	54	236	9	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	409	383	109	16	3	7	20	77	3	28	12	285	328	397	724	112	333	19	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	519	494	114	16	7	5	17	128	3	32	19	231	263	322	585	91	296	25	3	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	647	599	147	23	7	10	39	144	4	38	20	245	300	357	657	112	297	22	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	290	262	56	7	3	1	23	52	3	11	6	214	284	275	559	61	256	18	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	464	426	98	9	3	5	34	83	1	18	10	230	294	300	594	70	271	18	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	502	455	115	20	6	1	40	95	2	17	6	253	318	330	647	77	309	19	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	669	632	162	28	6	5	29	92	3	22	11	256	294	343	637	87	293	14	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	717	656	172	39	8	7	52	95	3	32	14	262	321	378	699	116	292	13	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	678	611	141	18	13	2	58	88	4	19	5	231	302	313	615	82	261	13	9	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	589	536	120	30	2	21	46	142	2	17	7	224	286	405	691	181	264	24	8	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	403	364	99	16	2	14	34	85	2	13	7	272	337	442	779	170	323	21	8	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	371	324	76	14	1	7	42	74	2	12	7	235	331	349	679	114	285	20	11	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	475	413	79	18	0	7	57	104	2	20	9	191	293	286	579	94	236	22	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	289	62	12	2	8	37	79	1	19	8	215	311	353	664	138	257	24	11	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	346	323	64	26	0	8	17	81	3	12	6	198	246	353	599	155	223	23	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	289	62	12	2	8	37	79	1	19	8	215	311	353	664	138	257	24	11	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	346	323	64	26	0	8	17	81	3	12	6	198	246	353	599	155	223	23	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	190	169	40	9	1	4	18	44	1	5	2	235	311	373	684	138	289	23	9	306	93	-2	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	80	73	16	3	0	2	7	19	0	1	0	223	297	346	643	123	279	24	9	290	82	-2	+0	-7	+0	+2	-0.7
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYM	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	217	291	336	627	120	269	—	—	283	82	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1295	1146	280	45	4	22	127	249	5	48	19	244	322	348	670	104	292	19	10	302	73	-14	+2	-2	-15	+28	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	141	23	2	11	64	125	3	24	10	245	324	350	674	104	293	19	10	302	73	-7	+1	-1	-8	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	8331	7533	1806	320	71	120	630	1536	45	375	165	240	302	349	651	109	284	18	8	276	73	-17	+2	-10	-14	+32	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	141	25	6	9	49	120	4	29	13	240	303	349	651	109	285	18	8	276	73	-7	+1	-4	-6	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 40 PAwOBA .297 → .218 (−79)K% 17.5% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.50%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	21.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.50%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.940	1.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.13%	÷0.975	×0.930	—	×0.940	14.46%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷1.022	×0.830	—	×0.940	4.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷1.167	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .297 → .218; ISO .211 → .128; BABIP .233 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASt. Lucie Mets · 27 PAwOBA .551 → .490 (−61)K% 11.1% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.11%	÷1.060	×1.360	—	—	14.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.52%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×0.940	12.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.977	×0.920	—	×0.940	14.76%
Doubles /BIP	27.78%	÷0.903	×0.830	—	×0.940	23.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷0.855	×0.800	—	×0.940	4.89%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 95, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 112, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .551 → .490; ISO .381 → .363; BABIP .444 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 25 PAwOBA .113 → .074 (−38)K% 28.0% → 36.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.00%	÷1.011	×1.310	—	—	36.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.00%	÷1.022	×0.600	—	×0.940	2.21%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.021	×0.870	—	×0.940	4.71%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.989	×0.780	—	×0.940	4.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.051	×0.850	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.073	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (11.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .113 → .074; ISO .042 → .028; BABIP .118 → .091. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 313 PAwOBA .397 → .303 (−94)K% 19.8% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.81%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	23.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.89%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×0.942	11.35%
HBP% /PA	0.32%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.28%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.970	×0.942	19.36%
Doubles /BIP	8.02%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.970	×0.942	6.12%
Triples /BIP	1.07%	÷1.049	×0.970	×0.970	×0.942	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .397 → .303; ISO .209 → .157; BABIP .335 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 339 PAwOBA .329 → .255 (−75)K% 16.8% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.81%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.93%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×0.952	10.82%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.26%
Singles /BIP	16.52%	÷0.997	×0.930	×0.965	×0.952	14.16%
Doubles /BIP	8.04%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.965	×0.952	6.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.965	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.02%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .329 → .255; ISO .160 → .119; BABIP .253 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 73 PAwOBA .345 → .256 (−89)K% 17.8% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.81%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.96%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.19%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.039	×0.930	×0.955	×0.972	14.66%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.955	×0.972	4.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.988	×0.920	×0.955	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.84%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.94%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .345 → .256; ISO .234 → .161; BABIP .255 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 493 PAwOBA .382 → .309 (−73)K% 19.3% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.27%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	24.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.69%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.38%
Singles /BIP	19.35%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	16.34%
Doubles /BIP	10.12%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	8.22%
Triples /BIP	0.89%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×0.992	5.79%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .382 → .309; ISO .239 → .209; BABIP .323 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 328 PAwOBA .338 → .278 (−60)K% 9.5% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.45%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	11.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.80%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×1.003	9.21%
HBP% /PA	0.30%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.30%
Singles /BIP	22.09%	÷1.054	×0.900	×0.973	×1.003	18.40%
Doubles /BIP	4.02%	÷0.906	×0.810	×0.973	×1.003	3.50%
Triples /BIP	4.02%	÷1.031	×0.810	×0.973	×1.003	3.08%
Home runs /BIP	0.80%	÷0.952	×0.780	—	×1.003	0.66%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 81, 3B 106, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .338 → .278; ISO .129 → .108; BABIP .304 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Leury Garcíalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,387 PA	3.6	2,387	34	63	253	293	351	+5	+10	3.1	4.3
/162	664	9	18	+1.4	+2.7	0.9	pk7: 6
#2Jim Gosger'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,066 PA	3.1	2,066	30	25	233*	316*	364*	-9	+12	3.2	4.1
/162	664	10	8	-2.8	+3.8	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	2.2	1,476	26	50	244	318	353	+4	-4	3.2	3.2
/162	664	12	23	+1.9	-1.6	1.4	pk7: 3
#4Travis Jankowskilast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,718 PA	2.6	1,718	11	100	238	321	309	-9	+11	2.1	2.5
/162	664	4	39	-3.6	+4.2	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Milt Cuyler'90-'98 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	10	77	233*	299*	338*	+1	+4	0.6	0.9
/162	664	4	33	+0.6	+1.9	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Herm Winningham'84-'92 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,069 PA	3.1	2,069	19	105	238*	296*	357*	+1	-3	-0.5	0.2
/162	664	6	34	+0.3	-1.1	-0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Ortega (OGILVIE)	36	—	—	—	—	233/308/370	136	289	3	3	23%	9%	93	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nyjer Morgan 2016 · MLB	36	47→57	45	53→65	48	232/294/356	124	283	13	15	23%	8%	84	+0.1	235/301/356	121	271	12	20	17%	7%	87	+0.4	232/300/343	111	265	10	26	16%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Curtis Pride 2005 · MLB	36	48	45	51→55	43	238/292/367	129	300	12	12	24%	6%	86	+0.3	232/305/361	129	313	12	18	27%	9%	89	+0.5	222/299/340	118	307	10	21	29%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Grégor Blanco 2019 · MLB	35	46→56	41→45	56→60	48	223/287/326	104	289	8	18	25%	8%	74	-0.5	212/276/340	128	270	14	13	26%	8%	74	-0.5	188/257/314	126	232	16	13	26%	8%	60	-1.1
✕Flavio Romero 2015 · AAA	35	42→52	41→45	48→60	51	208/288/302	94	265	10	20	24%	10%	70	-0.8	211/291/288	77	272	7	17	23%	10%	68	-1.0	221/301/273	52	277	3	21	20%	9%	65	-0.7
✕Jerry Owens 2016 · AAA	35	52→62	42→40	56→65	49	251/312/362	111	307	8	21	20%	8%	91	+0.7	257/305/355	98	301	8	14	17%	6%	87	+0.4	329/358/368	39	371	0	14	11%	4%	105	+0.3
✕Don Kelly 2016 · MLB	36	47→57	40→45	51→55	57	226/308/321	95	257	8	11	15%	10%	81	-0.1	196/261/278	82	243	7	7	21%	8%	54	-2.0	153/214/194	41	195	2	2	21%	7%	15	-2.1
✕Orlando Palmeiro 2006 · MLB	37	53	43→40	47→50	54	257/323/378	121	275	10	8	11%	8%	99	+1.3	243/311/344	101	268	7	6	12%	8%	88	+0.4	238/308/286	48	267	0	0	10%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Royce Clayton 2006 · MLB	36	54→57	40→45	50	49	259/313/359	100	311	6	11	18%	7%	91	+0.6	246/297/339	93	307	5	12	20%	6%	80	-0.1	240/289/322	82	302	2	13	20%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Roger Bernadina 2019 · AAA	35	47→57	44→45	53→60	45	227/291/349	122	303	11	18	28%	7%	81	-0.1	245/298/367	122	309	13	10	24%	6%	88	+0.4	269/313/363	95	335	11	4	22%	6%	88	+0.1
✕Mike Benjamin 2002 · MLB	36	51	44→45	47→50	46	249/300/374	125	293	9	12	18%	6%	90	+0.6	213/273/318	105	267	9	8	23%	7%	68	-1.0	148/200/180	33	198	0	0	24%	5%	8	-1.2
✕A.J. Ellis 2017 · MLB	36	45→54	43→45	45→40	59	221/314/334	112	252	11	5	17%	11%	87	+0.4	239/326/368	129	280	13	5	19%	10%	99	+1.3	241/338/360	119	287	13	0	19%	11%	103	+0.4
✕Erick Aybar 2019 · MLB	35	49→59	43→45	47→60	49	236/294/345	109	266	10	13	16%	7%	82	-0.0	239/311/368	129	280	12	9	18%	8%	93	+0.8	237/312/356	118	280	10	6	18%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Yosmany Guerra 2019 · AAA	36	53→57	40	45	50	252/303/354	102	288	5	7	14%	6%	86	+0.3	243/304/354	111	290	9	8	18%	8%	86	+0.3	248/312/349	101	294	8	5	17%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Timo Perez 2011 · AAA	36	50→60	42→50	52→50	50	238/286/346	108	253	10	15	11%	6%	78	-0.3	246/282/341	95	269	8	14	12%	5%	75	-0.5	262/291/345	83	283	6	16	10%	4%	76	-0.3
✕Ryan Hanigan 2017 · MLB	36	44→54	41→40	47→40	51	215/296/310	96	260	9	4	21%	9%	75	-0.5	219/284/309	90	283	9	5	24%	7%	70	-0.9	229/291/287	58	311	6	0	26%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Ramon Valdez 2012 · AAA	35	48	39→30	54→55	46	230/292/317	87	277	6	18	19%	6%	74	-0.5	246/319/322	76	279	5	22	13%	7%	86	+0.3	256/334/311	55	287	2	26	11%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Jose Espinoza 2010 · AAA	36	52→53	39→40	42→45	48	250/303/337	87	297	7	8	18%	6%	82	+0.0	243/300/335	92	296	7	8	19%	7%	80	-0.1	243/302/325	82	297	6	5	19%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Hector Castaneda 2008 · AAA	36	53	37→30	44→45	53	246/325/320	75	302	4	6	19%	9%	88	+0.4	245/327/312	67	298	5	6	18%	10%	86	+0.3	245/333/293	47	298	3	4	17%	10%	82	-0.0
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2013 · AAA	35	51→56	42→45	48→50	47	249/297/355	106	287	10	13	17%	6%	84	+0.2	224/269/339	115	291	12	16	26%	5%	70	-0.8	198/229/289	91	263	10	23	29%	3%	40	-0.9
✕Keith Lockhart 2001 · MLB	36	52	40→45	51→45	53	245/300/344	98	266	7	9	11%	7%	82	+0.0	227/285/337	110	250	10	5	14%	7%	76	-0.4	213/275/323	110	235	10	1	14%	7%	70	-0.3

Rafael Ortega

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps