A.J. Ellis

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1981-04-09

Age (2027)46

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2016	35	MLBPHI	196	.216/.302/.298	2	2	66	0.1
2017	36	MLBMIA	163	.210/.298/.371	6	0	95	0.4
2018	37	MLBSD	183	.272/.382/.344	1	0	109	0.2
2019	38	No MLB games played
2020	39	No MLB games played
2021	40	No MLB games played
2022	41	No MLB games played
2023	42	No MLB games played
2024	43	No MLB games played
2025	44	No MLB games played
2026	45	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2016-2018

xwOBA42

Avg EV33

Barrel%11

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	24	A+	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	206	176	45	8	0	3	22	26	6	1	3	256	358	352	710	97	284	13	11	325	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	314	252	63	9	1	0	53	53	3	2	0	250	386	294	680	44	312	17	17	319	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	430	357	96	22	2	8	60	61	8	1	4	269	386	409	795	140	301	14	14	358	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	337	274	88	17	4	4	50	44	8	0	2	321	440	456	896	135	367	13	15	399	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	360	283	89	13	2	0	64	44	3	2	2	314	446	375	820	60	363	12	18	372	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	128	108	30	5	0	0	14	18	1	0	0	278	366	324	690	46	330	14	11	309	97	-0	+0	-5	+4	+3	0.1
2010	29	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	76	61	16	5	1	0	13	12	1	1	0	262	400	377	777	115	327	16	17	354	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	103	85	23	1	1	2	14	16	3	0	1	271	392	376	769	106	313	16	14	352	129	+4	-0	-4	+6	+2	0.8
2011	30	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	248	184	56	15	0	2	50	23	7	0	1	304	469	418	887	114	338	9	20	398	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	505	423	114	20	1	13	65	107	7	0	0	270	376	414	789	144	329	21	13	351	117	+10	+0	+3	+9	+11	3.4
2013	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	448	390	93	17	1	10	45	78	3	0	2	238	322	364	686	126	269	17	10	305	96	-2	-1	+10	+8	+10	2.5
2014	33	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	347	283	54	9	0	3	53	57	4	0	0	191	326	254	581	64	225	16	15	276	70	-12	+0	-9	+6	+8	-0.8
2015	34	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	217	181	43	9	0	7	32	38	1	0	0	238	355	403	758	166	265	18	15	339	117	+4	+0	-3	+4	+5	1.0
2016	35	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	196	171	37	8	0	2	19	31	2	2	1	216	302	298	600	82	252	16	10	273	66	-8	+0	+1	+4	+4	0.1
2017	36	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	163	143	30	5	0	6	12	29	6	0	0	210	298	371	669	161	222	18	7	300	95	-1	+0	-2	+3	+4	0.4
2018	37	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	183	151	41	8	0	1	26	37	1	0	0	272	382	344	726	73	348	20	14	329	109	+2	+0	-8	+3	+4	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2290	1935	465	82	3	44	280	411	28	2	4	240	345	354	699	114	281	18	12	315	99	-2	-1	-17	+47	+50	7.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	24	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	206	182	43	8	0	3	16	37	6	1	3	236	319	330	648	93	271	18	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	314	270	64	9	1	0	35	65	3	2	0	237	331	278	609	41	296	21	11	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	430	377	93	21	2	7	40	74	8	1	4	247	332	369	700	122	280	17	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	337	288	81	15	3	3	36	57	8	0	2	281	377	385	762	104	329	17	11	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	360	306	85	11	2	0	41	57	3	2	2	278	369	327	695	49	322	16	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	128	109	30	5	0	0	13	18	1	0	0	275	358	321	679	46	330	14	10	311	97	-0	+0	-5	+4	+3	0.1
2010	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	76	65	14	4	1	0	9	16	1	1	0	215	320	308	628	92	264	21	12	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	103	85	23	1	1	2	14	16	3	0	1	271	392	376	769	106	313	16	14	360	129	+4	-0	-4	+6	+2	0.8
2011	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	248	201	48	13	0	1	33	32	7	0	1	239	365	318	684	80	263	13	13	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	505	434	115	21	1	12	54	107	7	0	0	265	356	401	756	136	329	21	11	342	117	+10	+0	+3	+9	+11	3.4
2013	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	448	391	95	18	1	10	44	78	3	0	2	243	324	371	695	128	269	17	10	309	96	-2	-1	+10	+8	+10	2.5
2014	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	347	288	55	10	0	3	48	57	4	0	0	191	315	257	572	66	225	16	14	272	70	-12	+0	-9	+6	+8	-0.8
2015	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	217	182	44	10	0	7	31	38	1	0	0	242	355	412	767	170	265	18	14	342	117	+4	+0	-3	+4	+5	1.0
2016	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	196	173	37	8	0	2	17	31	2	2	1	214	292	295	586	81	252	16	9	266	66	-8	+0	+1	+4	+4	0.1
2017	36	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	163	143	30	5	0	6	12	29	6	0	0	210	298	371	669	161	222	18	7	309	95	-1	+0	-2	+3	+4	0.4
2018	37	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	183	152	42	9	0	1	25	37	1	0	0	276	382	355	737	79	348	20	14	330	109	+2	+0	-8	+3	+4	0.2
2005	24	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	206	182	43	8	0	3	16	37	6	1	3	236	319	330	648	93	280	18	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ RAW	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	206	176	45	8	0	3	22	26	6	1	3	256	358	352	710	97	284	13	11	325	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	314	270	64	9	1	0	35	65	3	2	0	237	331	278	609	41	308	21	11	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA RAW	Jacksonville Suns	—	314	252	63	9	1	0	53	53	3	2	0	250	386	294	680	44	312	17	17	319	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	430	377	93	21	2	7	40	74	8	1	4	247	332	369	700	122	287	17	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA RAW	Jacksonville Suns	—	430	357	96	22	2	8	60	61	8	1	4	269	386	409	795	140	301	14	14	358	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	337	288	81	15	3	3	36	57	8	0	2	281	377	385	762	104	338	17	11	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA RAW	Las Vegas 51s	—	337	274	88	17	4	4	50	44	8	0	2	321	440	456	896	135	367	13	15	399	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	360	306	85	11	2	0	41	57	3	2	2	278	369	327	695	49	333	16	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	360	283	89	13	2	0	64	44	3	2	2	314	446	375	820	60	363	12	18	372	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	204	174	44	9	1	0	22	34	2	1	0	253	343	316	660	63	312	17	11	295	86	-3	+0	-5	+4	+4	-0.0
2010	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	204	169	46	10	1	0	27	30	2	1	0	272	379	343	722	71	329	15	13	326	86	-3	+0	-5	+4	+4	-0.0
2011	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	351	286	71	14	1	3	47	48	10	0	2	248	373	336	709	87	288	14	13	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	351	269	79	16	1	4	64	39	10	0	2	294	446	405	851	112	330	11	18	385	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	505	434	115	21	1	12	54	107	7	0	0	265	356	401	756	136	323	21	11	342	117	+10	+0	+3	+9	+11	3.4
2012	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	505	423	114	20	1	13	65	107	7	0	0	270	376	414	789	144	329	21	13	351	117	+10	+0	+3	+9	+11	3.4
2013	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	448	391	95	18	1	10	44	78	3	0	2	243	324	371	695	128	275	17	10	309	96	-2	-1	+10	+8	+10	2.5
2013	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	448	390	93	17	1	10	45	78	3	0	2	238	322	364	686	126	269	17	10	305	96	-2	-1	+10	+8	+10	2.5
2014	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	347	288	55	10	0	3	48	57	4	0	0	191	315	257	572	66	224	16	14	272	70	-12	+0	-9	+6	+8	-0.8
2014	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	347	283	54	9	0	3	53	57	4	0	0	191	326	254	581	64	225	16	15	276	70	-12	+0	-9	+6	+8	-0.8
2015	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	217	182	44	10	0	7	31	38	1	0	0	242	355	412	767	170	270	18	14	342	117	+4	+0	-3	+4	+5	1.0
2015	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	217	181	43	9	0	7	32	38	1	0	0	238	355	403	758	166	265	18	15	339	117	+4	+0	-3	+4	+5	1.0
2016	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	196	173	37	8	0	2	17	31	2	2	1	214	292	295	586	81	248	16	9	266	66	-8	+0	+1	+4	+4	0.1
2016	35	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	196	171	37	8	0	2	19	31	2	2	1	216	302	298	600	82	252	16	10	273	66	-8	+0	+1	+4	+4	0.1
2017	36	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	163	143	30	5	0	6	12	29	6	0	0	210	298	371	669	161	222	18	7	309	95	-1	+0	-2	+3	+4	0.4
2017	36	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	163	143	30	5	0	6	12	29	6	0	0	210	298	371	669	161	222	18	7	300	95	-1	+0	-2	+3	+4	0.4
2018	37	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	183	152	42	9	0	1	25	37	1	0	0	276	382	355	737	79	353	20	14	330	109	+2	+0	-8	+3	+4	0.2
2018	37	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	183	151	41	8	0	1	26	37	1	0	0	272	382	344	726	73	348	20	14	329	109	+2	+0	-8	+3	+4	0.2
2005	24	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	206	182	43	8	0	3	16	37	6	1	3	236	319	330	648	93	271	18	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	314	273	64	9	1	0	35	65	3	2	0	234	331	275	606	40	296	21	11	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	430	379	93	21	2	7	40	74	8	1	4	245	332	367	699	121	280	17	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	337	290	81	15	3	3	36	57	8	0	2	279	377	383	759	103	329	17	11	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	360	313	85	11	2	0	41	57	3	2	2	272	369	319	688	48	322	16	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	204	178	44	9	1	0	22	34	2	1	0	247	343	309	652	62	305	17	11	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	351	291	71	14	1	3	47	48	10	0	2	244	373	330	703	86	278	14	13	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	505	439	115	21	1	12	54	107	7	0	0	262	356	396	752	134	329	21	11	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	448	398	95	18	1	10	44	78	3	0	2	239	324	364	689	126	269	17	10	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	347	292	55	10	0	3	48	57	4	0	0	188	315	253	568	65	225	16	14	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	217	183	44	10	0	7	31	38	1	0	0	240	355	410	765	169	265	18	14	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	196	175	37	8	0	2	17	31	2	2	1	211	292	291	583	80	252	16	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	36	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	163	144	30	5	0	6	12	29	6	0	0	208	298	368	666	160	222	18	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	37	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	183	155	42	9	0	1	25	37	1	0	0	271	382	348	730	77	348	20	14	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2290	1935	465	82	3	44	280	411	28	2	4	240	345	354	699	114	281	18	12	315	96	-2	-1	-17	+47	+50	7.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	549	131	23	1	12	79	117	8	1	1	239	342	350	692	111	280	18	12	315	96	-0	-0	-5	+13	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4261	3646	899	168	12	57	468	749	64	9	16	247	343	346	689	100	293	18	11	310	96	-2	-1	-17	+47	+50	7.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	556	138	26	2	9	71	114	10	1	2	248	343	351	694	103	295	18	11	310	96	-0	-0	-5	+13	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2011 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 248 PAwOBA .390 → .309 (−81)K% 9.3% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.27%	÷0.928	×1.290	—	—	12.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.76%	÷1.012	×0.710	—	×0.972	13.47%
HBP% /PA	2.82%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	2.69%
Singles /BIP	24.22%	÷1.096	×0.900	×0.987	×0.972	19.09%
Doubles /BIP	9.32%	÷1.012	×0.810	×0.987	×0.972	7.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.987	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.24%	÷1.173	×0.780	—	×0.972	0.80%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 119, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 86, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .390 → .309; ISO .114 → .091; BABIP .338 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 76 PAwOBA .346 → .268 (−77)K% 15.8% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷0.961	×1.290	—	—	21.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.11%	÷1.019	×0.710	—	×0.982	11.70%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	1.27%
Singles /BIP	20.41%	÷1.056	×0.900	×1.012	×0.982	17.28%
Doubles /BIP	10.20%	÷1.082	×0.810	×1.012	×0.982	7.59%
Triples /BIP	2.04%	÷1.053	×0.810	×1.012	×0.982	1.56%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.223	×0.780	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 111, 2B 116, 3B 111, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .346 → .268; ISO .115 → .088; BABIP .327 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 360 PAwOBA .365 → .318 (−46)K% 12.2% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.22%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	15.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.39%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.992	11.54%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.81%
Singles /BIP	30.96%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.007	×0.992	27.85%
Doubles /BIP	5.44%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.007	×0.992	4.40%
Triples /BIP	0.84%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.007	×0.992	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .365 → .318; ISO .060 → .053; BABIP .363 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAALas Vegas 51s · 337 PAwOBA .393 → .338 (−55)K% 13.1% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.06%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	16.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.84%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.003	10.57%
HBP% /PA	2.37%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	2.33%
Singles /BIP	27.39%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.022	×1.003	25.26%
Doubles /BIP	7.39%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.022	×1.003	6.13%
Triples /BIP	1.74%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.022	×1.003	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	1.74%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.003	1.36%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .393 → .338; ISO .135 → .113; BABIP .367 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAJacksonville Suns · 430 PAwOBA .351 → .306 (−46)K% 14.2% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.19%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	17.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.72%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.988	9.22%
HBP% /PA	1.86%	—	×0.840	—	×0.988	1.54%
Singles /BIP	21.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.031	×0.988	20.26%
Doubles /BIP	7.43%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.031	×0.988	6.89%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.031	×0.988	0.61%
Home runs /BIP	2.70%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	2.14%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .351 → .306; ISO .140 → .126; BABIP .301 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAJacksonville Suns · 314 PAwOBA .313 → .278 (−36)K% 16.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.88%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.24%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.998	11.02%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.80%
Singles /BIP	26.63%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.036	×0.998	25.33%
Doubles /BIP	4.52%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.036	×0.998	4.25%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.036	×0.998	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .313 → .278; ISO .044 → .044; BABIP .312 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2005 A+Vero Beach Dodgers · 206 PAwOBA .319 → .283 (−36)K% 12.6% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.62%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.68%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.988	7.91%
HBP% /PA	2.91%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	2.68%
Singles /BIP	22.67%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.046	×0.988	21.55%
Doubles /BIP	5.33%	÷1.000	×0.960	×1.046	×0.988	5.29%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.046	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	1.74%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .319 → .283; ISO .097 → .088; BABIP .284 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).