Josh Lowe

LF Los Angeles Angels

Age 29 L/R 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB K +5%HR +4% Svc 4.436 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	26	AAATB	55	.255/.309/.471	3	0	55	—	.212/.255/.365
2024	26	MLBTB	387	.241/.304/.391	10	25	90	0.0
2025	27	MLBTB	435	.220/.285/.366	11	18	76	-1.2
2026	28	AAALAA	126	.299/.400/.617	9	6	107	—	.228/.296/.439
2026	28	MLBLAA	343	.209/.274/.360	12	10	76	-0.6
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAA	368	.229/.292/.392	13	15	92	0.3
2028PROJ	30	MLBLAA	355	.226/.288/.383	12	12	88	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.8 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.436First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.7M2028Arb-3$0.7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd68

Speed66

Avg EV54

Barrel%51

xwOBA37

Form.210/.273/.375 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .230/.291/.392

CompsJeremy Hazelbaker (age 29) · Corey Julks (age 28) · Joshua Palacios (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6692vR 101

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .292 / .392

PA368

HR13

SB15

K%29

BB%8

BABIP292

ISO167

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

190.226

POWER50

Barrel%

518.3

Avg EV

5489.4

Bat Spd

6873.2

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

6628.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%35%▼▼41% over 64 PA (60d) · proj 29%

BB%8%·8% over 64 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.166·.175 over 57 AB (60d) · proj .162

HR/BB5.5%·6.5% over 31 BBE (60d) · proj 5.3%

BABIP.295·.310 over 29 BIP (60d) · proj .294

SLASH.210/.273/.375▼proj .230/.291/.392

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 880 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

175

705

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

221

311

▶▶R

ISO

062

174

▶▶R

BABIP

268

303

▶R

32.0%

27.5%

▶R

BB%

6.9%

7.5%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.436 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.1M
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.7M		$0.4M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	18	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	214	173	43	6	3	5	37	59	0	2	2	249	381	405	786	156	336	28	17	351	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	507	456	122	26	2	8	42	144	0	22	8	268	329	386	715	118	369	28	8	316	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	455	399	95	25	3	6	47	117	4	18	6	238	324	361	685	123	318	26	10	308	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	519	448	113	23	4	18	59	132	3	30	9	252	343	442	785	190	316	25	11	344	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	58	52	17	4	1	2	5	16	0	4	0	327	386	558	944	231	429	28	9	404	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	470	402	117	28	2	22	61	123	1	26	0	291	386	535	921	244	361	26	13	398	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	198	181	40	12	2	2	15	66	1	3	0	221	284	343	627	122	336	33	8	281	74	-6	+1	-1	-6	+4	-0.9
2022	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	351	302	95	27	2	14	44	115	2	25	2	315	405	556	961	242	460	33	13	417	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	501	466	136	33	2	20	31	124	1	32	3	292	337	500	837	208	357	25	6	365	132	+19	+5	-3	-5	+11	2.7
2024	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	387	353	85	19	2	10	32	123	0	25	1	241	304	391	695	150	338	32	8	309	90	-4	+5	-4	-5	+8	0.0
2024	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	55	51	13	0	1	3	4	24	0	0	0	255	309	471	780	216	417	44	7	342	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	435	396	87	21	2	11	33	109	3	18	4	220	285	366	651	146	273	25	8	290	76	-12	+2	-6	-5	+9	-1.2
2025	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	22	17	4	0	0	1	4	6	0	1	0	235	381	412	793	176	273	27	18	345	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	343	311	65	11	0	12	25	105	3	10	1	209	274	360	634	151	270	31	7	282	76	-10	+2	-0	-5	+7	-0.6
2026	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	126	107	32	7	0	9	18	33	0	6	0	299	400	617	1.017	318	348	26	14	435	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1864	1707	413	96	8	55	136	527	8	88	9	242	301	404	705	162	316	28	7	312	97	-6	+14	-14	-26	+40	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	214	186	33	4	2	4	24	84	0	2	2	177	271	285	556	108	276	39	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	507	468	101	18	2	6	30	201	0	22	8	216	263	301	564	85	345	40	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	455	411	77	21	2	6	35	169	4	18	6	187	258	292	550	105	287	37	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	519	463	101	20	3	16	44	163	3	30	9	218	290	378	668	160	288	31	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	470	420	104	22	2	15	43	143	1	26	0	248	319	417	736	169	325	30	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	198	182	40	12	2	2	14	66	1	3	0	220	279	341	620	121	336	33	7	277	74	-6	+1	-1	-6	+4	-0.9
2022	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	351	317	82	21	2	10	29	138	2	25	2	259	325	432	757	174	407	39	8	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	501	468	136	34	2	21	29	124	1	32	3	291	333	506	840	216	357	25	6	363	132	+19	+5	-3	-5	+11	2.7
2024	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	387	357	84	19	2	10	28	123	0	25	1	235	291	384	675	148	338	32	7	302	90	-4	+5	-4	-5	+8	0.0
2024	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	55	52	11	0	1	2	3	28	0	0	0	212	255	365	620	154	390	51	5	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	435	397	85	20	2	11	32	109	3	18	4	214	278	358	635	144	273	25	7	280	76	-12	+2	-6	-5	+9	-1.2
2025	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	22	18	4	0	0	1	3	7	0	1	0	222	333	389	722	167	258	32	14	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	343	312	65	11	0	12	24	105	3	10	1	208	271	359	630	151	270	31	7	280	76	-10	+2	-0	-5	+7	-0.6
2026	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	126	114	26	6	0	6	11	40	0	6	0	228	296	439	735	211	288	32	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	214	186	33	4	2	4	24	84	0	2	2	177	271	285	556	108	284	39	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	—	214	173	43	6	3	5	37	59	0	2	2	249	381	405	786	156	336	28	17	351	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	507	468	101	18	2	6	30	201	0	22	8	216	263	301	564	85	357	40	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	507	456	122	26	2	8	42	144	0	22	8	268	329	386	715	118	369	28	8	316	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	455	411	77	21	2	6	35	169	4	18	6	187	258	292	550	105	296	37	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ RAW	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	455	399	95	25	3	6	47	117	4	18	6	238	324	361	685	123	318	26	10	308	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	577	516	112	22	3	18	48	182	3	34	9	217	287	376	663	159	294	32	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	577	500	130	27	5	20	64	148	3	34	9	260	347	454	801	194	327	26	11	350	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	470	420	104	22	2	15	43	143	1	26	0	248	319	417	736	169	332	30	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	470	402	117	28	2	22	61	123	1	26	0	291	386	535	921	244	361	26	13	398	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	549	499	121	33	4	12	43	204	3	28	2	242	306	397	703	154	381	37	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	549	483	135	39	4	16	59	181	3	28	2	280	361	476	838	197	412	33	11	368	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	501	468	136	34	2	21	29	124	1	32	3	291	333	506	840	216	353	25	6	363	132	+19	+5	-3	-5	+11	2.7
2023	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	501	466	136	33	2	20	31	124	1	32	3	292	337	500	837	208	357	25	6	365	132	+19	+5	-3	-5	+11	2.7
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	442	409	95	19	3	12	31	151	0	25	1	232	286	381	668	149	335	34	7	295	86	-7	+5	-4	-5	+10	-0.1
2024	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	442	404	98	19	3	13	36	147	0	25	1	243	305	401	706	158	346	33	8	313	86	-7	+5	-4	-5	+10	-0.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	457	415	88	20	2	11	35	116	3	19	4	212	278	349	628	137	265	25	8	280	76	-13	+2	-6	-5	+10	-1.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	457	413	91	21	2	12	37	115	3	19	4	220	289	368	657	148	273	25	8	293	76	-13	+2	-6	-5	+10	-1.2
2026	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	469	426	91	17	0	18	35	145	3	16	1	214	278	380	658	167	274	31	7	293	84	-9	+3	-0	-5	+10	-0.1
2026	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	469	418	97	18	0	21	43	138	3	16	1	232	308	426	734	194	290	29	9	323	84	-9	+3	-0	-5	+10	-0.1
2016	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	214	188	33	4	2	4	24	84	0	2	2	176	271	282	553	106	276	39	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	507	472	101	18	2	6	30	201	0	22	8	214	263	299	562	85	345	40	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	455	413	77	21	2	6	35	169	4	18	6	186	258	291	548	104	287	37	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	577	521	112	22	3	18	48	182	3	34	9	215	287	372	660	157	288	32	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	470	423	104	22	2	15	43	143	1	26	0	246	319	414	733	168	325	30	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	549	498	121	33	4	12	43	204	3	28	2	243	306	398	704	155	381	37	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	501	466	136	34	2	21	29	124	1	32	3	292	333	509	842	217	357	25	6	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	442	408	95	19	3	12	31	151	0	25	1	233	286	382	669	150	344	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	457	416	88	20	2	11	35	116	3	19	4	212	278	349	627	137	273	25	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	469	428	91	17	0	18	35	145	3	16	1	213	278	379	657	166	275	31	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	442	408	95	19	3	12	31	151	0	25	1	233	286	382	669	150	344	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	457	416	88	20	2	11	35	116	3	19	4	212	278	349	627	137	273	25	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	469	428	91	17	0	18	35	145	3	16	1	213	278	379	657	166	275	31	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	LAA	100%	457	417	95	19	1	15	34	131	3	18	4	231	293	393	686	162	294	29	7	304	92	-4	+2	+1	-5	+10	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	LAA	100%	368	335	78	15	1	13	28	105	2	15	3	229	292	392	684	162	292	29	8	303	92	-4	+2	+1	-4	+8	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	100%	355	324	75	15	1	12	26	103	2	12	3	227	289	384	673	157	291	29	7	298	88	-5	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	100%	355	324	74	14	1	12	26	103	2	12	3	226	288	383	671	157	289	29	7	298	88	-5	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2219	2031	487	110	9	67	162	630	10	100	12	240	299	402	701	162	312	28	7	310	84	-11	+15	-16	-30	+48	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	143	32	3	20	47	185	3	29	4	240	299	405	704	165	313	28	7	310	84	-3	+4	-5	-9	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5364	4877	1110	240	24	147	407	1727	22	249	42	228	290	377	667	149	316	32	8	293	84	-15	+17	-15	-34	+56	1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	135	29	3	18	49	209	3	30	5	228	291	379	670	151	317	32	8	293	84	-4	+4	-4	-8	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 126 PAwOBA .422 → .326 (−95)K% 26.2% → 31.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.19%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	31.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.70%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.62%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.963	×0.992	19.22%
Doubles /BIP	9.46%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.963	×0.992	7.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.963	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.16%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	8.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .422 → .326; ISO .318 → .232; BABIP .348 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 22 PAwOBA .353 → .283 (−70)K% 27.3% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷1.057	×1.200	—	—	30.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.003	12.22%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷0.956	×0.930	—	×1.003	26.62%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.830	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷1.380	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.62%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .353 → .283; ISO .176 → .102; BABIP .273 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 55 PAwOBA .332 → .250 (−82)K% 43.6% → 51.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	43.64%	÷1.014	×1.200	—	—	51.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.27%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.26%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.985	×0.930	—	×1.018	32.03%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.994	×0.830	—	×1.018	0.00%
Triples /BIP	3.70%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.018	4.06%
Home runs /BIP	11.11%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×1.018	7.46%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .332 → .250; ISO .216 → .142; BABIP .417 → .390. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 351 PAwOBA .408 → .324 (−85)K% 32.8% → 39.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.76%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	39.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.25%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.36%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.56%
Singles /BIP	27.81%	÷0.988	×0.930	×0.983	×1.048	26.97%
Doubles /BIP	14.44%	÷1.091	×0.830	×0.983	×1.048	11.31%
Triples /BIP	1.07%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.983	×1.048	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	7.49%	÷1.034	×0.700	—	×1.048	5.31%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .408 → .324; ISO .242 → .175; BABIP .460 → .407. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 470 PAwOBA .392 → .321 (−71)K% 26.2% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.17%	÷1.029	×1.200	—	—	30.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.77%	÷1.016	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.11%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.21%
Singles /BIP	23.30%	÷0.945	×0.930	×0.955	×1.050	22.98%
Doubles /BIP	10.04%	÷1.067	×0.830	×0.955	×1.050	7.82%
Triples /BIP	0.72%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.955	×1.050	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	7.89%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.47%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .392 → .321; ISO .244 → .179; BABIP .361 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 519 PAwOBA .337 → .288 (−49)K% 25.4% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.43%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	31.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.37%	÷0.963	×0.680	—	×1.050	8.43%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.51%
Singles /BIP	21.52%	÷0.978	×0.920	×0.950	×1.050	20.19%
Doubles /BIP	7.28%	÷1.028	×0.910	×0.950	×1.050	6.42%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.950	×1.050	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	5.70%	÷0.920	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.20%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .337 → .288; ISO .190 → .165; BABIP .316 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 455 PAwOBA .302 → .242 (−59)K% 25.7% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.71%	÷0.983	×1.420	—	—	37.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.89%	÷1.022	×0.750	—	×1.042	7.56%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.85%
Singles /BIP	21.63%	÷1.031	×0.920	×0.960	×1.042	19.31%
Doubles /BIP	8.87%	÷1.012	×0.960	×0.960	×1.042	8.41%
Triples /BIP	1.06%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.960	×1.042	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷0.857	×0.880	—	×1.042	2.28%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 106, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .302 → .242; ISO .123 → .104; BABIP .318 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 507 PAwOBA .311 → .247 (−64)K% 28.4% → 39.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.40%	÷0.973	×1.360	—	—	39.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.28%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.89%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.56%	÷0.978	×0.920	×1.002	×1.045	27.16%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.086	×0.830	×1.002	×1.045	6.67%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷1.121	×0.910	×1.002	×1.045	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.985	×0.800	—	×1.045	2.18%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 124, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .311 → .247; ISO .118 → .086; BABIP .369 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Billy Hatcher'84-'95 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,752 PA	7.2	4,752	54	218	261*	310*	385*	-20	-5	4.9	6.8
/162	664	8	30	-2.9	-0.7	0.7	pk7: 9
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.9	2,587	79	114	240	296	402	-28	-22	4.3	4.3
/162	664	20	29	-7.1	-5.6	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
#6Greg Briley'88-'93 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,670 PA	2.5	1,670	29	65	251*	309*	399*	-17	-4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	12	26	-6.8	-1.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Lowe (OGILVIE)	29	45	50	55	40	229/291/389	161	294	12	15	29%	7%	92	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2017 · MLB	29	47→53	51→55	58→60	42	235/290/403	168	310	17	19	30%	7%	93	+0.8	211/270/365	154	318	16	18	37%	7%	78	-0.3	185/247/329	144	292	15	21	40%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Corey Julks 2024 · MLB	28	46→50	49→50	54→55	46	234/295/386	152	289	17	21	25%	7%	92	+0.7	229/289/353	124	290	13	18	25%	7%	82	-0.0	222/281/337	115	280	13	16	25%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Joshua Palacios 2024 · MLB	29	50→53	49→50	53→55	46	253/307/400	146	292	17	18	20%	6%	99	+1.3	229/295/358	129	283	13	13	23%	7%	85	+0.2	210/285/314	105	268	9	11	24%	8%	71	-0.3
✕Daniel Johnson 2024 · MLB	29	41→51	48→55	52→55	42	212/269/354	143	269	17	18	28%	6%	74	-0.5	216/264/353	137	270	16	17	26%	5%	72	-0.7	214/258/353	140	266	17	17	26%	5%	68	-0.7
✕Brad Snyder 2011 · MLB	29	45→51	54→55	53→50	39	232/279/415	183	308	21	15	31%	6%	93	+0.8	232/276/384	152	330	17	13	33%	6%	84	+0.1	225/276/381	155	323	18	11	35%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Sam Hilliard 2024 · MLB	30	41→49	52→55	54→55	46	214/289/380	166	294	20	15	33%	9%	88	+0.5	220/286/398	178	307	19	18	33%	8%	91	+0.6	212/277/398	186	292	19	20	33%	8%	87	+0.3
✕George Lombard 2006 · MLB	30	44→43	50	56→55	42	221/287/380	159	307	17	19	32%	7%	87	+0.4	221/289/364	143	306	16	25	31%	8%	84	+0.2	213/287/342	129	286	16	37	30%	8%	76	-0.1
●Will Venable 2011 · MLB	28	47→55	50→55	56→60	45	238/301/399	161	306	18	20	28%	8%	97	+1.1	250/307/418	168	310	16	28	24%	7%	103	+1.6	257/311/436	179	309	17	31	22%	6%	109	+1.6
✕Skye Bolt 2023 · MLB	29	48→40	50	54→50	44	242/302/395	153	302	18	14	26%	7%	96	+1.0	228/296/341	113	317	11	10	29%	8%	82	-0.0	217/293/302	86	317	6	5	31%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Brian O'Grady 2021 · MLB	29	43→38	57→60	52→50	40	227/284/423	196	297	25	16	32%	6%	97	+1.1	214/281/373	159	294	17	14	31%	8%	84	+0.1	191/264/352	161	259	16	13	32%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Stuart Fairchild 2024 · MLB	28	46→43	49→50	52→55	45	228/312/380	152	304	15	16	29%	8%	97	+1.1	225/305/369	144	290	15	23	26%	8%	92	+0.7	216/307/360	144	270	16	31	25%	9%	89	+0.3
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2021 · AAA	29	47→51	49→55	57→55	43	235/288/388	153	308	16	19	29%	7%	89	+0.5	229/279/409	180	326	21	10	35%	6%	91	+0.7	212/258/426	214	296	26	4	37%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Weston Wilson 2024 · MLB	29	39→42	50→55	55	44	207/276/355	148	279	19	24	32%	8%	78	-0.3	213/286/366	153	280	19	21	30%	9%	84	+0.1	207/282/354	147	267	19	21	29%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Tyler Neslony 2023 · AAA	29	52→48	49→55	51→55	44	255/308/417	162	322	14	17	25%	7%	103	+1.5	217/273/334	117	290	11	19	28%	7%	71	-0.8	192/251/286	94	259	10	22	29%	7%	50	-1.1
✕Eli White 2023 · MLB	29	44→53	47→50	55→60	46	218/293/346	128	298	15	24	31%	9%	82	-0.0	228/297/362	134	313	15	28	30%	8%	87	+0.4	239/292/380	141	304	16	27	26%	6%	88	+0.2
✕Corey Brown 2014 · MLB	28	43→49	54→55	50	40	224/281/405	180	309	22	14	34%	7%	91	+0.6	199/247/358	159	284	20	13	36%	6%	68	-1.0	196/252/364	168	277	21	17	37%	7%	69	-0.7
✕Michael A. Taylor 2019 · MLB	28	47→54	49→55	57→60	41	235/286/392	157	321	16	28	31%	6%	89	+0.5	227/280/373	146	311	15	20	30%	7%	83	+0.1	240/297/382	142	309	19	14	28%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Adam Engel 2022 · MLB	30	47→48	51→50	55→60	42	238/301/405	167	296	19	20	26%	6%	99	+1.2	216/280/342	126	303	12	24	31%	7%	76	-0.4	198/264/306	108	292	9	29	33%	7%	60	-0.8
✕Dylan Moore 2022 · MLB	29	40→49	53→55	55→65	49	212/303/387	175	269	21	29	29%	10%	96	+1.0	217/323/387	170	291	18	33	30%	11%	103	+1.6	207/326/378	171	283	16	41	30%	12%	103	+0.8
✕Matt Carson 2011 · MLB	30	43→50	54→60	54→50	41	231/278/411	180	274	22	18	25%	5%	91	+0.7	231/277/392	161	290	19	13	27%	5%	86	+0.3	226/272/371	145	288	16	11	27%	5%	76	-0.3

Josh Lowe

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps