Corey Julks
LF Toledo Mud Hens| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | AAACWS | 180 | .278/.381/.470 | 6 | 7 | 83 | — | .220/.295/.352 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLBCWS | 189 | .214/.277/.306 | 3 | 5 | 65 | -1.0 | |
| 2025 | 29 | AAACWS | 487 | .300/.374/.477 | 15 | 18 | 78 | — | .241/.296/.352 |
| 2026 | 30 | AAADET | 436 | .262/.341/.447 | 18 | 9 | 65 | — | .211/.269/.336 |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 31 | MLBDET | 107 | .218/.279/.337 | 2 | 4 | 77 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 32 | MLBDET | 119 | .211/.272/.322 | 3 | 3 | 70 | -0.4 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | — | 260 | 227 | 64 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 58 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 282 | 366 | 458 | 824 | 176 | 349 | 22 | 11 | 362 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 261 | 232 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 50 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 259 | 341 | 379 | 720 | 121 | 315 | 19 | 10 | 327 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 41 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 244 | 162 | 406 | 286 | 39 | 10 | 200 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 412 | 350 | 93 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 52 | 76 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 266 | 372 | 389 | 760 | 123 | 326 | 18 | 13 | 344 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 372 | 338 | 97 | 23 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 84 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 287 | 350 | 491 | 842 | 204 | 344 | 23 | 9 | 369 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 590 | 523 | 141 | 21 | 4 | 31 | 56 | 128 | 10 | 22 | 5 | 270 | 351 | 503 | 854 | 233 | 301 | 22 | 9 | 375 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 323 | 298 | 73 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 75 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 245 | 299 | 352 | 651 | 107 | 306 | 23 | 7 | 293 | 82 | -7 | +2 | +1 | -5 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 129 | 104 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 240 | 388 | 462 | 849 | 221 | 282 | 18 | 19 | 379 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 189 | 173 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 277 | 306 | 583 | 92 | 281 | 26 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -8 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +4 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 180 | 151 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 278 | 381 | 470 | 851 | 192 | 313 | 19 | 13 | 370 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 487 | 436 | 131 | 30 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 99 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 300 | 374 | 477 | 851 | 177 | 360 | 20 | 10 | 378 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 436 | 385 | 101 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 43 | 90 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 262 | 341 | 447 | 788 | 184 | 294 | 21 | 10 | 347 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 512 | 471 | 110 | 21 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 125 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 234 | 291 | 335 | 626 | 102 | 297 | 24 | 7 | 283 | 77 | -14 | +2 | -1 | -9 | +11 | -1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Buies Creek Astros | — | 260 | 238 | 54 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 84 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 227 | 284 | 370 | 654 | 143 | 316 | 32 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 261 | 240 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 70 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 212 | 276 | 304 | 580 | 92 | 286 | 27 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 41 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 195 | 132 | 327 | 267 | 49 | 7 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 412 | 369 | 75 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 110 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 203 | 281 | 295 | 577 | 92 | 268 | 27 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 372 | 350 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 107 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 234 | 278 | 386 | 663 | 151 | 305 | 29 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 590 | 540 | 124 | 18 | 4 | 24 | 39 | 156 | 10 | 22 | 5 | 230 | 294 | 411 | 705 | 181 | 276 | 26 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 323 | 298 | 72 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 75 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 242 | 296 | 346 | 642 | 104 | 306 | 23 | 7 | 290 | 82 | -7 | +2 | +1 | -5 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 129 | 112 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 28 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 214 | 318 | 393 | 711 | 179 | 264 | 22 | 12 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 189 | 173 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 277 | 306 | 583 | 92 | 281 | 26 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -8 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +4 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 180 | 159 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 220 | 295 | 352 | 648 | 132 | 258 | 23 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 487 | 452 | 109 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 119 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 241 | 296 | 352 | 647 | 111 | 310 | 24 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 436 | 399 | 84 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 108 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 211 | 269 | 336 | 605 | 125 | 247 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 521 | 478 | 105 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 154 | 4 | 30 | 11 | 220 | 280 | 333 | 613 | 113 | 304 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 521 | 459 | 124 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 55 | 108 | 4 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 353 | 418 | 772 | 148 | 331 | 21 | 11 | 345 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 408 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 130 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 196 | 271 | 279 | 551 | 83 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 244 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 453 | 387 | 99 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 92 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 256 | 360 | 367 | 727 | 111 | 323 | 20 | 12 | 331 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 372 | 350 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 107 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 234 | 278 | 386 | 663 | 151 | 308 | 29 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 372 | 338 | 97 | 23 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 84 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 287 | 350 | 491 | 842 | 204 | 344 | 23 | 9 | 369 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 590 | 540 | 124 | 18 | 4 | 24 | 39 | 156 | 10 | 22 | 5 | 230 | 294 | 411 | 705 | 181 | 277 | 26 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 590 | 523 | 141 | 21 | 4 | 31 | 56 | 128 | 10 | 22 | 5 | 270 | 351 | 503 | 854 | 233 | 301 | 22 | 9 | 375 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 452 | 410 | 97 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 103 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 237 | 304 | 368 | 673 | 132 | 293 | 23 | 8 | 297 | 87 | -7 | +3 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 452 | 402 | 98 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 46 | 98 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 244 | 324 | 381 | 705 | 137 | 300 | 22 | 10 | 317 | 87 | -7 | +3 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 332 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 91 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 217 | 286 | 328 | 614 | 111 | 272 | 25 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -12 | +2 | -3 | -4 | +8 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 369 | 324 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 84 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 244 | 327 | 383 | 710 | 139 | 297 | 23 | 11 | 317 | 74 | -12 | +2 | -3 | -4 | +8 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 487 | 452 | 109 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 119 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 241 | 296 | 352 | 647 | 111 | 311 | 24 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 487 | 436 | 131 | 30 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 99 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 300 | 374 | 477 | 851 | 177 | 360 | 20 | 10 | 378 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 436 | 399 | 84 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 108 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 211 | 269 | 336 | 605 | 125 | 254 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 436 | 385 | 101 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 43 | 90 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 262 | 341 | 447 | 788 | 184 | 294 | 21 | 10 | 347 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 521 | 476 | 105 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 154 | 4 | 30 | 11 | 221 | 280 | 334 | 614 | 113 | 301 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 408 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 130 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 196 | 271 | 279 | 551 | 83 | 268 | 29 | 8 | 244 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 372 | 348 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 107 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 236 | 278 | 388 | 666 | 152 | 305 | 29 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 590 | 536 | 124 | 18 | 4 | 24 | 39 | 156 | 10 | 22 | 5 | 231 | 294 | 414 | 708 | 183 | 276 | 26 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 452 | 409 | 97 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 103 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 237 | 304 | 369 | 674 | 132 | 294 | 23 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 334 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 91 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 216 | 286 | 326 | 612 | 111 | 270 | 25 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 487 | 449 | 109 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 119 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 243 | 296 | 354 | 650 | 111 | 310 | 24 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 436 | 401 | 84 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 108 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 209 | 269 | 334 | 603 | 125 | 247 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 334 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 91 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 216 | 286 | 326 | 612 | 111 | 270 | 25 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 487 | 449 | 109 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 119 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 243 | 296 | 354 | 650 | 111 | 310 | 24 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 436 | 401 | 84 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 108 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 209 | 269 | 334 | 603 | 125 | 247 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | DET | 45% | 380 | 347 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 91 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 221 | 283 | 345 | 628 | 124 | 272 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -11 | +2 | +1 | -4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | DET | 45% | 107 | 97 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 279 | 337 | 616 | 119 | 268 | 24 | 7 | 277 | 77 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | DET | 48% | 250 | 228 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 61 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 215 | 275 | 330 | 605 | 115 | 266 | 24 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -9 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +5 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | DET | 48% | 119 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 272 | 322 | 594 | 111 | 262 | 24 | 7 | 268 | 70 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 631 | 580 | 133 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 45 | 154 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 229 | 287 | 334 | 622 | 105 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 280 | 75 | -18 | +2 | -3 | -10 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 137 | 26 | 0 | 12 | 46 | 159 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 229 | 286 | 333 | 620 | 104 | 291 | 24 | 7 | 280 | 75 | -19 | +2 | -3 | -10 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4168 | 3814 | 851 | 172 | 17 | 93 | 295 | 1086 | 35 | 154 | 43 | 223 | 285 | 350 | 635 | 127 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -29 | +4 | -4 | -14 | +22 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 134 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 169 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 225 | 286 | 356 | 642 | 131 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -19 | +2 | -2 | -9 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 436 PAwOBA .341 → .265 (−76)K% 20.6% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.967 | ×0.972 | 19.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×0.972 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.967 | ×0.972 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 4.15% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .341 → .265; ISO .184 → .131; BABIP .294 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 487 PAwOBA .366 → .284 (−83)K% 20.3% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.33% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.45% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.22% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×0.982 | 22.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.90% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.982 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×0.982 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.45% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.32% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .366 → .284; ISO .177 → .113; BABIP .360 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 180 PAwOBA .369 → .291 (−78)K% 18.9% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.89% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.025 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.033 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×0.992 | 18.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×0.992 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.049 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×0.992 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .369 → .291; ISO .192 → .146; BABIP .313 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 129 PAwOBA .370 → .316 (−54)K% 17.8% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.60% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 12.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 10.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷0.882 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 13.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.056 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.896 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 76, 3B 111, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .370 → .316; ISO .221 → .202; BABIP .282 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 590 PAwOBA .364 → .305 (−59)K% 21.7% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.69% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.98% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.52% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×0.979 | ×1.018 | 20.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×1.018 | 4.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×1.018 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.85% | ÷0.917 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.10% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 97, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .364 → .305; ISO .233 → .185; BABIP .301 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 372 PAwOBA .358 → .286 (−72)K% 22.6% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.58% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 5.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷1.002 | ×0.940 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 20.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.06% | ÷0.987 | ×0.870 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 7.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.51% | ÷1.074 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .358 → .286; ISO .204 → .152; BABIP .344 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 412 PAwOBA .339 → .254 (−85)K% 18.4% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.45% | ÷0.983 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 7.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.26% | ÷1.029 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.12% | ÷1.068 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷0.969 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 1.35% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 97, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .339 → .254; ISO .123 → .092; BABIP .326 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 41 PAwOBA .196 → .149 (−47)K% 39.0% → 49.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.02% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 49.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.043 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 26.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.067 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 99, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .196 → .149; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .286 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).