John Andreoli

PosRF

B/TR/R

Born1990-06-09

Age (2027)37

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	29	AAASEA	507	.255/.393/.449	16	12	71	—	.185/.287/.311
2021	31	AAA/ROKSD	189	.212/.364/.411	6	6	47	—	.149/.257/.274
2022	32	AAAMIN	421	.184/.339/.362	15	19	41	—	.137/.245/.261

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	27	3	0	0	0	3	6	0	2	0	111	200	111	311		143	20	10	160	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	496	412	119	17	8	1	75	89	4	55	20	289	403	376	779	87	364	18	15	355	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	226	201	58	12	2	2	21	38	2	17	2	289	362	398	760	109	344	17	9	340	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	303	264	84	11	6	0	34	57	1	23	3	318	398	405	803	87	400	19	11	359	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	252	209	44	4	2	0	34	49	4	28	2	211	332	249	581	38	272	19	13	275	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	98	88	19	5	1	1	8	21	0	9	2	216	281	330	611	114	269	21	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	448	379	105	20	6	5	55	97	3	33	8	277	373	401	774	124	360	22	12	342	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	617	507	130	21	7	12	94	162	5	43	12	256	378	396	774	140	347	26	15	347	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	505	430	105	24	8	14	65	138	4	26	10	244	349	435	784	191	326	27	13	346	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	67	61	14	2	0	0	5	19	0	2	0	230	288	262	550	33	326	28	7	252	56	-3	+0	+2	-5	+1	-0.5
2018	28	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	388	327	94	18	5	3	55	86	5	19	5	287	398	401	799	113	381	22	14	363	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	507	408	104	25	3	16	90	141	3	12	1	255	393	449	842	194	342	28	18	374	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	171	139	28	6	3	4	30	62	1	6	3	201	347	374	721	173	324	36	18	328	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	ROK	ACL Padres	—	18	12	4	0	0	2	4	6	1	0	1	333	529	833	1.363	500	400	33	22	528	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	421	337	62	11	2	15	78	150	1	19	3	184	339	362	701	178	270	36	19	319	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	67	61	14	2	0	0	5	19	0	2	0	230	288	262	550	33	326	28	7	252	57	-3	+0	+2	-5	+1	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	28	3	0	0	0	2	8	0	2	0	107	167	107	274		130	27	7	124	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	496	430	108	14	6	1	57	120	4	55	20	251	344	319	663	67	338	24	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	226	208	56	12	2	2	14	48	2	17	2	269	321	375	696	106	328	21	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	303	274	74	9	5	0	24	76	1	23	3	270	331	339	671	69	361	25	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	252	219	42	3	2	0	24	61	4	28	2	192	283	224	507	32	253	24	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	448	395	93	17	5	4	39	119	3	33	8	235	309	334	643	99	314	27	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	617	536	119	19	6	11	65	202	5	43	12	222	312	341	653	119	318	33	11	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	505	448	86	17	6	12	47	165	4	26	10	192	275	337	612	145	265	33	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	67	61	14	2	0	0	5	19	0	2	0	230	288	262	550	33	326	28	7	252	56	-3	+0	+2	-5	+1	-0.5
2018	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	388	347	81	16	4	3	35	107	5	19	5	233	313	329	641	95	325	28	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	507	438	81	18	2	11	60	184	3	12	1	185	287	311	598	126	276	36	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	171	149	20	4	2	2	20	77	1	6	3	134	241	228	469	94	253	45	12	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	18	14	4	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	1	286	412	714	1.126	429	281	50	11	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	421	364	50	8	2	11	51	184	1	19	3	137	245	261	506	124	218	44	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	28	3	0	0	0	2	8	0	2	0	107	167	107	274		150	27	7	124	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	27	3	0	0	0	3	6	0	2	0	111	200	111	311		143	20	10	160	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	496	430	108	14	6	1	57	120	4	55	20	251	344	319	663	67	344	24	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ RAW	Daytona Cubs	—	496	412	119	17	8	1	75	89	4	55	20	289	403	376	779	87	364	18	15	355	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	529	482	130	21	7	2	38	124	3	40	5	270	327	355	682	85	355	23	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	529	465	142	23	8	2	55	95	3	40	5	305	382	402	785	97	375	18	10	351	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	350	306	57	4	2	0	33	85	4	37	4	186	274	212	486	26	254	24	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	350	297	63	9	3	1	42	70	4	37	4	212	318	273	591	61	271	20	12	274	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	448	395	93	17	5	4	39	119	3	33	8	235	309	334	643	99	326	27	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	448	379	105	20	6	5	55	97	3	33	8	277	373	401	774	124	360	22	12	342	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	617	536	119	19	6	11	65	202	5	43	12	222	312	341	653	119	327	33	11	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	617	507	130	21	7	12	94	162	5	43	12	256	378	396	774	140	347	26	15	347	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	505	448	86	17	6	12	47	165	4	26	10	192	275	337	612	145	272	33	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	505	430	105	24	8	14	65	138	4	26	10	244	349	435	784	191	326	27	13	346	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	455	408	95	18	4	3	40	126	5	21	5	233	309	319	628	86	327	28	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	455	388	108	20	5	3	60	105	5	21	5	278	382	379	761	101	372	23	13	347	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	507	438	81	18	2	11	60	184	3	12	1	185	287	311	598	126	281	36	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	—	507	408	104	25	3	16	90	141	3	12	1	255	393	449	842	194	342	28	18	374	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	189	162	24	4	2	4	23	86	2	6	4	148	262	272	534	123	270	46	12	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	189	151	32	6	3	6	34	68	2	6	4	212	364	411	774	199	329	36	18	347	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	421	364	50	8	2	11	51	184	1	19	3	137	245	261	506	124	228	44	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	421	337	62	11	2	15	78	150	1	19	3	184	339	362	701	178	270	36	19	319	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	28	3	0	0	0	2	8	0	2	0	107	167	107	274		130	27	7	124	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	496	432	108	14	6	1	57	120	4	55	20	250	344	317	661	67	338	24	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	529	483	130	21	7	2	38	124	3	40	5	269	327	354	681	85	347	23	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	350	310	57	4	2	0	33	85	4	37	4	184	274	210	484	26	253	24	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	448	403	93	17	5	4	39	119	3	33	8	231	309	328	636	97	314	27	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	617	542	119	19	6	11	65	202	5	43	12	220	312	338	650	118	318	33	11	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	505	449	86	17	6	12	47	165	4	26	10	192	275	336	611	145	265	33	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	455	407	95	18	4	3	40	126	5	21	5	233	309	319	628	86	325	28	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	507	439	81	18	2	11	60	184	3	12	1	185	287	310	597	125	276	36	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	189	162	24	4	2	4	23	86	2	6	4	148	262	272	534	123	256	46	12	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	421	366	50	8	2	11	51	184	1	19	3	137	245	260	505	123	218	44	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	67	61	14	2	0	0	5	19	0	2	0	230	288	262	550	33	326	28	7	252	71	-3	+0	+2	-5	+1	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	135	19	0	0	49	184	0	19	0	228	287	260	548	32	323	28	8	252	71	-33	+4	+15	-47	+14	-4.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4547	3997	846	140	42	59	455	1403	34	294	72	212	298	312	610	100	307	31	10	272	71	-3	+0	+2	-5	+1	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	120	20	6	8	65	201	5	42	10	210	296	308	604	98	306	31	10	272	71	-33	+4	+15	-47	+14	-4.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 421 PAwOBA .313 → .229 (−84)K% 35.6% → 43.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.63%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	43.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.53%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×0.952	12.03%
HBP% /PA	0.24%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.21%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.975	×0.952	15.70%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.079	×0.830	×0.975	×0.952	4.20%
Triples /BIP	1.07%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.975	×0.952	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	8.02%	÷0.881	×0.700	—	×0.952	6.06%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .313 → .229; ISO .178 → .133; BABIP .270 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 171 PAwOBA .322 → .222 (−100)K% 36.3% → 45.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.26%	÷0.960	×1.200	—	—	45.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.54%	÷0.980	×0.690	—	×0.962	11.88%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.53%
Singles /BIP	19.48%	÷1.003	×0.930	×0.955	×0.962	16.60%
Doubles /BIP	7.79%	÷1.116	×0.830	×0.955	×0.962	5.32%
Triples /BIP	3.90%	÷1.099	×0.920	×0.955	×0.962	3.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.19%	÷1.154	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.03%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 101, 2B 123, 3B 120, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .322 → .222; ISO .173 → .106; BABIP .324 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Padres · 18 PAwOBA .544 → .391 (−153)K% 33.3% → 48.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	48.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	12.95%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	3.76%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	25.69%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	33.33%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	24.44%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (11.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .544 → .391; ISO .500 → .388; BABIP .400 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 507 PAwOBA .369 → .273 (−96)K% 27.8% → 36.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.81%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	36.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.55%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×0.982	11.78%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.57%
Singles /BIP	22.47%	÷0.985	×0.900	×0.950	×0.982	19.15%
Doubles /BIP	9.36%	÷0.998	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	7.09%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.073	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	0.79%
Home runs /BIP	5.99%	÷1.049	×0.780	—	×0.982	4.37%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 115, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .369 → .273; ISO .194 → .139; BABIP .342 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAATacoma Rainiers · 388 PAwOBA .355 → .284 (−71)K% 22.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.16%	÷1.031	×1.290	—	—	27.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.92%	÷1.103	×0.710	—	×0.992	8.88%
HBP% /PA	1.29%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	1.25%
Singles /BIP	28.22%	÷1.006	×0.900	×0.957	×0.992	23.98%
Doubles /BIP	7.47%	÷0.885	×0.810	×0.957	×0.992	6.49%
Triples /BIP	2.07%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.957	×0.992	1.77%
Home runs /BIP	1.24%	÷0.918	×0.780	—	×0.992	1.05%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 77, 3B 80, K 106, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .355 → .284; ISO .113 → .097; BABIP .381 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAIowa Cubs · 505 PAwOBA .337 → .268 (−68)K% 27.3% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.33%	÷1.083	×1.290	—	—	32.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.67%	÷0.965	×0.710	—	×1.003	9.35%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.78%
Singles /BIP	20.21%	÷0.991	×0.900	×0.950	×1.003	17.48%
Doubles /BIP	8.22%	÷1.056	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	6.01%
Triples /BIP	2.74%	÷1.042	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	2.03%
Home runs /BIP	4.79%	÷0.899	×0.780	—	×1.003	4.17%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 108, K 117, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .337 → .268; ISO .191 → .152; BABIP .326 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 617 PAwOBA .342 → .290 (−52)K% 26.3% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.26%	÷1.037	×1.290	—	—	32.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.07%	÷1.034	×0.710	—	×1.018	10.53%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.81%
Singles /BIP	26.09%	÷1.006	×0.900	×1.017	×1.018	24.15%
Doubles /BIP	6.09%	÷0.927	×0.810	×1.017	×1.018	5.50%
Triples /BIP	2.03%	÷0.945	×0.810	×1.017	×1.018	1.80%
Home runs /BIP	3.48%	÷0.890	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.10%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 89, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .342 → .290; ISO .140 → .125; BABIP .347 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 448 PAwOBA .333 → .283 (−50)K% 21.7% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.65%	÷1.051	×1.290	—	—	26.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.83%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×1.033	8.71%
HBP% /PA	0.67%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.68%
Singles /BIP	26.24%	÷1.008	×0.900	×0.966	×1.033	23.39%
Doubles /BIP	7.09%	÷0.984	×0.810	×0.966	×1.033	5.83%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷0.948	×0.810	×0.966	×1.033	1.81%
Home runs /BIP	1.77%	÷0.916	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.56%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .333 → .283; ISO .124 → .107; BABIP .360 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).