Joshua Palacios

RF Indianapolis Indians

Age 32 L/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA HR -15%K -5% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAA/APIT	226	.291/.371/.482	5	6	86	—	.238/.299/.384
2024	29	MLBPIT	78	.224/.333/.343	2	1	100	-0.2
2025	30	AAACWS	82	.197/.338/.379	3	3	48	—	.143/.250/.257
2025	30	MLBCWS	145	.203/.292/.305	3	0	72	-0.9
2026	31	AAAPIT	140	.234/.312/.290	0	5	42	—	.211/.268/.258
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBPIT	12	.236/.308/.360	0	0	91	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBPIT	29	.227/.299/.342	1	0	83	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Avg EV65

xwOBA56

Bat Spd56

Barrel%52

Speed36

CompsMark Payton (age 32) · Jon Weber (age 32) · Matt Szczur (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .308 / .360

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP292

ISO91

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

440.246

POWER45

Barrel%

528.4

Avg EV

6590.2

Bat Spd

5672.0

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	40	38	13	3	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	342	375	421	796	79	371	8	2	358	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	53	49	13	3	0	0	3	6	1	4	1	265	321	327	647	61	302	11	6	297	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	419	368	103	18	3	2	42	78	6	12	6	280	363	361	724	82	347	19	10	330	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	562	507	148	30	5	8	47	125	5	15	9	292	358	418	776	126	372	22	8	346	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	341	286	76	18	2	7	45	70	5	15	5	266	375	416	791	150	324	21	13	353	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	42	35	7	0	0	0	3	11	2	0	0	200	300	200	500		280	26	7	236	45	-3	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.4
2021	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	63	54	13	2	0	0	5	16	4	1	2	241	349	278	627	37	342	25	8	301	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	49	47	10	2	0	0	1	15	1	1	0	213	245	255	500	43	312	31	2	229	41	-3	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.8
2022	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	342	296	87	12	2	9	35	55	6	21	8	294	378	439	817	145	335	16	10	363	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	81	70	15	3	1	1	6	15	2	0	2	214	295	329	623	114	255	19	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	264	247	59	9	2	10	12	56	2	5	0	239	280	413	693	174	269	21	5	302	94	-2	+1	-1	-4	+6	-0.1
2023	28	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	90	78	32	4	1	8	11	11	1	4	1	410	489	795	1.284	385	407	12	12	544	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA	Altoona Curve	—	37	34	9	2	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	265	324	324	648	59	281	5	5	298	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	78	67	15	2	0	2	10	12	1	1	0	224	333	343	677	119	245	15	13	313	100	+0	+0	-1	-3	+2	-0.2
2024	29	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	208	182	53	19	1	5	22	47	2	5	4	291	374	489	863	198	366	23	11	378	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	18	17	5	2	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	294	333	412	745	118	385	22	6	332	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	145	128	26	4	0	3	12	36	4	0	0	203	292	305	596	102	258	25	8	275	72	-5	+0	-5	-2	+3	-0.9
2025	30	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	82	66	13	3	0	3	11	16	3	3	3	197	338	379	716	182	204	20	13	321	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	140	124	29	7	0	0	13	24	1	5	0	234	312	290	602	56	284	17	9	276	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	578	524	117	17	2	15	38	130	10	7	0	223	288	349	638	126	268	22	7	286	80	-14	+1	-7	-16	+13	-2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	40	38	12	3	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	316	350	395	745	79	329	10	2	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	53	50	10	2	0	0	2	9	1	4	1	200	245	240	485	40	249	17	4	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	419	382	93	14	2	2	28	111	6	12	6	243	305	306	612	63	329	26	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	562	521	126	28	4	5	33	182	5	15	9	242	293	340	633	98	357	32	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	341	298	68	14	2	7	33	85	5	15	5	228	315	359	675	131	284	25	10	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	42	35	7	0	0	0	3	11	2	0	0	200	300	200	500		280	26	7	235	45	-3	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.4
2021	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	63	56	11	2	0	0	3	20	4	1	2	196	286	232	518	36	302	32	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	49	47	10	2	0	0	1	15	1	1	0	213	245	255	500	43	312	31	2	229	41	-3	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.8
2022	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	342	308	84	12	2	6	25	63	6	21	8	273	339	383	722	110	320	18	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	264	247	60	9	2	11	12	56	2	5	0	243	284	429	713	186	269	21	5	308	94	-2	+1	-1	-4	+6	-0.1
2023	28	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	90	82	26	3	1	5	7	14	1	4	1	317	378	561	939	244	337	16	8	404	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	37	35	7	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	200	243	229	472	29	245	5	3	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	78	67	15	2	0	2	10	12	1	1	0	224	333	343	677	119	245	15	13	316	100	+0	+0	-1	-3	+2	-0.2
2024	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	208	189	46	15	1	4	15	59	2	5	4	243	306	397	703	153	325	28	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	18	17	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	176	222	235	458	59	311	33	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	145	128	26	4	0	3	12	36	4	0	0	203	292	305	596	102	258	25	8	274	72	-5	+0	-5	-2	+3	-0.9
2025	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	82	70	10	2	0	2	7	19	3	3	3	143	250	257	507	114	167	23	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	140	128	27	6	0	0	9	29	1	5	0	211	268	258	526	47	254	21	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	93	88	22	5	0	0	3	13	2	4	3	250	290	307	597	57	293	14	3	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	93	87	26	6	0	0	4	9	2	4	3	299	344	368	712	69	333	10	4	323	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	419	382	93	14	2	2	28	111	6	12	6	243	305	306	612	63	335	26	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	419	368	103	18	3	2	42	78	6	12	6	280	363	361	724	82	347	19	10	330	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	562	521	126	28	4	5	33	182	5	15	9	242	293	340	633	98	360	32	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	562	507	148	30	5	8	47	125	5	15	9	292	358	418	776	126	372	22	8	346	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	341	298	68	14	2	7	33	85	5	15	5	228	315	359	675	131	290	25	10	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	341	286	76	18	2	7	45	70	5	15	5	266	375	416	791	150	324	21	13	353	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	105	91	18	2	0	0	6	31	6	1	2	198	291	220	511	22	295	30	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	105	89	20	2	0	0	8	27	6	1	2	225	330	247	577	22	317	26	8	275	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	472	426	113	16	3	7	31	94	9	22	10	265	328	366	695	101	324	20	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	472	413	112	17	3	10	42	85	9	22	10	271	350	400	749	128	319	18	9	334	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	391	364	94	13	3	16	20	72	4	10	1	258	304	442	746	184	282	18	5	324	105	+2	+2	-1	-4	+8	0.7
2023	28	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	391	359	100	15	3	18	25	69	4	10	1	279	332	487	820	209	300	18	6	358	105	+2	+2	-1	-4	+8	0.7
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	304	274	65	18	1	6	25	77	3	7	4	237	308	376	684	139	307	25	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	304	266	73	23	1	7	33	63	3	7	4	274	361	447	808	173	335	21	11	358	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	227	198	36	6	0	5	19	55	7	3	3	182	277	288	565	106	221	24	8	261	63	-10	-1	-5	-2	+5	-1.3
2025	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	227	194	39	7	0	6	23	52	7	3	3	201	308	330	638	129	239	23	10	292	63	-10	-1	-5	-2	+5	-1.3
2026	31	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	140	128	27	6	0	0	9	29	1	5	0	211	268	258	526	47	267	21	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	—	140	124	29	7	0	0	13	24	1	5	0	234	312	290	602	56	284	17	9	276	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	93	88	22	5	0	0	3	13	2	4	3	250	290	307	597	57	283	14	3	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	419	382	93	14	2	2	28	111	6	12	6	243	305	306	612	63	329	26	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	562	519	126	28	4	5	33	182	5	15	9	243	293	341	634	98	357	32	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	341	300	68	14	2	7	33	85	5	15	5	227	315	357	672	130	284	25	10	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	105	92	18	2	0	0	6	31	6	1	2	196	291	217	509	22	293	30	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	472	429	113	16	3	7	31	94	9	22	10	263	328	364	692	100	319	20	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	391	364	94	13	3	16	20	72	4	10	1	258	304	442	746	184	283	18	5	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	304	273	65	18	1	6	25	77	3	7	4	238	308	377	685	139	304	25	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	227	199	36	6	0	5	19	55	7	3	3	181	277	286	563	106	225	24	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	140	129	27	6	0	0	9	29	1	5	0	209	268	256	524	47	254	21	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	304	273	65	18	1	6	25	77	3	7	4	238	308	377	685	139	304	25	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	227	199	36	6	0	5	19	55	7	3	3	181	277	286	563	106	225	24	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	140	129	27	6	0	0	9	29	1	5	0	209	268	256	524	47	254	21	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	PIT	10%	200	179	43	9	1	4	16	46	3	4	1	236	309	364	673	128	291	23	8	302	91	-2	+0	-1	-2	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	PIT	10%	12	11	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	236	308	360	669	125	292	25	8	301	91	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PIT	27%	105	95	21	4	0	2	8	25	1	1	0	227	299	345	645	118	283	24	8	291	83	-2	+0	-4	-1	+2	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	PIT	27%	29	27	6	1	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	227	299	342	641	115	284	24	7	290	83	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	607	551	123	18	2	16	40	137	10	7	0	223	288	350	638	127	268	23	7	286	81	-15	+1	-9	-16	+13	-2.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	131	19	2	17	43	147	11	7	0	222	287	347	635	125	266	23	7	286	81	-16	+1	-9	-18	+14	-2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3283	2976	709	131	15	53	225	802	51	97	44	238	303	346	649	108	306	24	7	287	81	-17	+2	-12	-19	+17	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	140	26	3	10	45	159	10	19	9	238	303	343	646	105	307	24	7	287	81	-14	+1	-10	-15	+14	-2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 140 PAwOBA .274 → .231 (−42)K% 17.1% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.14%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.29%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.16%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.65%
Singles /BIP	22.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.026	×0.962	20.20%
Doubles /BIP	7.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.026	×0.962	5.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.026	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .274 → .231; ISO .056 → .047; BABIP .284 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 82 PAwOBA .321 → .239 (−82)K% 19.5% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.51%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	23.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.41%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.14%
HBP% /PA	3.66%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	3.34%
Singles /BIP	14.00%	÷1.002	×0.930	×0.960	×0.972	12.12%
Doubles /BIP	6.00%	÷0.980	×0.830	×0.960	×0.972	4.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.970	×0.960	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.00%	÷1.320	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .321 → .239; ISO .182 → .111; BABIP .204 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 208 PAwOBA .368 → .301 (−68)K% 22.6% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.60%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	28.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.10%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.00%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.89%
Singles /BIP	20.74%	÷1.009	×0.930	×1.050	×0.982	19.72%
Doubles /BIP	14.07%	÷1.050	×0.830	×1.050	×0.982	11.47%
Triples /BIP	0.74%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×0.982	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.80%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .368 → .301; ISO .198 → .154; BABIP .366 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 18 PAwOBA .323 → .229 (−94)K% 22.2% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷0.975	×1.360	—	—	30.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.57%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.977	×0.920	—	×0.940	20.43%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.124	×0.830	—	×0.940	10.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.052	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.046	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 125, 3B 110, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .323 → .229; ISO .118 → .074; BABIP .385 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 90 PAwOBA .529 → .404 (−125)K% 12.2% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.22%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	15.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.22%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.93%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.04%
Singles /BIP	28.36%	÷1.004	×0.930	×0.968	×0.992	25.23%
Doubles /BIP	5.97%	÷1.013	×0.830	×0.968	×0.992	4.70%
Triples /BIP	1.49%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.968	×0.992	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	11.94%	÷1.095	×0.700	—	×0.992	7.57%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .529 → .404; ISO .385 → .261; BABIP .407 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 37 PAwOBA .291 → .243 (−47)K% 5.4% → 6.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	5.41%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	6.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.41%	÷1.058	×0.700	—	×0.968	3.46%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.850	—	×0.968	2.22%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷1.032	×0.970	—	×0.968	19.89%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.142	×0.860	—	×0.968	4.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.106	×0.780	—	×0.968	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .291 → .243; ISO .059 → .044; BABIP .281 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 342 PAwOBA .355 → .316 (−39)K% 16.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.08%	÷1.049	×1.200	—	—	18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.23%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.28%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.65%
Singles /BIP	26.56%	÷1.011	×0.930	×1.050	×1.003	25.74%
Doubles /BIP	4.98%	÷0.930	×0.830	×1.050	×1.003	4.68%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷0.913	×0.970	×1.050	×1.003	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	3.73%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .355 → .316; ISO .145 → .116; BABIP .335 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 63 PAwOBA .294 → .242 (−51)K% 25.4% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.40%	÷0.965	×1.200	—	—	31.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.94%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.44%
HBP% /PA	6.35%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	6.08%
Singles /BIP	28.95%	÷1.071	×0.930	—	×1.018	25.59%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.962	×0.830	—	×1.018	4.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 93, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .294 → .242; ISO .037 → .031; BABIP .342 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Max Venable'79-'91 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	18	64	238*	301*	371*	-11	-1	0.9	1.9
/162	664	8	27	-4.6	-0.3	0.4	pk7: 3
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.8	528	16	7	227	290	371	-6	-6	0.1	0.1
/162	664	20	8	-7.1	-7.0	0.2	pk7: 0
#5Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
#6Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joshua Palacios (OGILVIE)	32	45	45	45	55	234/306/361	127	291	3	2	23%	8%	91	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mark Payton 2024 · MLB	32	46→51	46→55	50	48	228/285/361	133	262	12	13	19%	7%	82	-0.0	238/291/355	117	292	10	9	21%	7%	82	+0.0	243/295/350	107	298	8	5	20%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jon Weber 2010 · AAA	32	48→53	47→50	41→50	45	237/292/381	144	291	14	8	23%	7%	89	+0.5	227/283/339	112	282	9	10	22%	7%	76	-0.4	214/266/283	69	264	2	10	19%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Matt Szczur 2021 · MLB	32	46→56	48→45	44→55	48	233/294/379	146	281	16	8	23%	8%	89	+0.5	212/262/356	144	280	17	9	30%	6%	72	-0.7	137/170/266	130	167	18	0	32%	4%	15	-0.9
✕Jose Espinoza 2006 · AAA	32	53	42→40	49→45	48	256/311/363	107	307	10	9	20%	7%	92	+0.7	257/320/360	103	299	8	7	16%	8%	95	+0.9	258/316/347	89	304	7	6	16%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Nick Martini 2023 · MLB	33	47→57	45→50	46→45	48	229/310/351	121	293	12	7	25%	8%	89	+0.5	222/301/372	150	271	16	3	24%	8%	91	+0.7	211/294/352	141	254	15	0	23%	8%	83	+0.1
✕James Adduci 2017 · MLB	32	45→55	45	51→60	46	226/287/349	123	287	13	14	25%	8%	80	-0.2	238/280/359	121	318	11	13	27%	6%	79	-0.2	236/272/353	117	312	11	12	27%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Michael A. Taylor 2023 · MLB	32	50→54	46→55	46→60	45	248/305/370	122	314	15	10	25%	7%	91	+0.7	222/280/376	154	300	20	16	31%	7%	84	+0.1	201/260/365	164	275	21	20	34%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Joe Thurston 2012 · MLB	32	47→57	45	47→50	46	234/291/359	125	269	12	10	18%	6%	84	+0.1	225/288/330	105	264	10	11	18%	7%	76	-0.4	228/292/308	81	267	6	10	16%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Brian Bogusevic 2015 · MLB	31	48→54	45	51→55	48	237/307/366	129	296	12	15	24%	8%	91	+0.7	247/293/372	125	306	14	16	23%	6%	87	+0.4	251/291/374	122	308	15	17	23%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Mike Tauchman 2023 · MLB	32	45→55	44→55	48→55	50	220/304/343	123	294	11	12	28%	10%	85	+0.2	243/344/371	128	304	13	9	22%	12%	106	+1.8	244/348/366	122	304	13	6	22%	13%	108	+1.3
✕Juan Lagares 2021 · MLB	32	47→57	45	50	45	233/289/356	123	294	12	11	25%	7%	82	-0.0	231/272/360	129	288	11	6	23%	5%	76	-0.4	235/265/370	135	292	11	2	23%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Ben Gamel 2024 · MLB	32	48→58	47→50	44→50	53	234/318/375	140	297	14	8	25%	10%	97	+1.1	223/311/359	136	312	13	6	30%	11%	92	+0.7	204/300/329	125	300	11	4	33%	11%	78	-0.1
✕Darren Bragg 2002 · MLB	32	49	44→45	49→50	47	236/303/363	127	316	10	15	28%	8%	88	+0.5	243/312/359	116	312	9	11	23%	9%	91	+0.7	238/308/345	107	303	8	9	23%	8%	87	+0.1
✕Blake Gailen 2017 · AAA	32	42	47→55	47→50	55	212/290/352	140	231	15	10	17%	10%	82	-0.0	222/276/347	125	275	13	10	24%	7%	76	-0.4	219/266/340	120	256	15	8	21%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Mike Freeman 2020 · MLB	32	48→58	44→45	44→55	46	234/299/346	112	307	12	9	27%	8%	84	+0.1	220/293/331	111	295	11	8	27%	9%	78	-0.3	185/264/270	85	252	8	6	28%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Preston Tucker 2023 · AAA	33	45→47	45→55	48→40	46	226/286/349	122	264	13	6	20%	6%	80	-0.2	237/317/389	152	287	16	7	22%	9%	101	+1.4	236/340/418	182	283	18	2	22%	12%	113	+0.9
✕Jose Munoz 2010 · AAA	31	51→49	42→45	45→50	54	246/316/361	115	288	9	11	17%	9%	93	+0.8	222/299/322	100	274	8	8	20%	10%	78	-0.3	184/269/260	76	236	6	5	23%	10%	51	-0.8
✕Chris Richard 2006 · MLB	32	47→52	47→55	47→50	45	235/294/374	138	288	15	8	24%	7%	88	+0.4	226/293/389	163	278	19	9	25%	7%	92	+0.7	220/290/395	175	270	21	8	26%	7%	92	+0.5
✕J.C. Linares 2017 · AAA	32	48→53	47→50	51→40	48	237/306/379	142	286	14	9	22%	8%	94	+0.9	224/288/356	132	260	14	10	19%	8%	82	-0.0	201/271/326	125	212	16	3	14%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Chad Huffman 2018 · MLB	33	43→52	48→50	48→45	48	219/299/368	149	264	15	8	23%	8%	90	+0.6	223/295/372	149	284	17	6	27%	7%	88	+0.5	214/284/365	151	271	19	0	28%	7%	79	-0.1

Joshua Palacios

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps