Joshua Palacios — OGILVIE

Joshua PalaciosRF Indianapolis Indians

Age 31 L/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 296 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .320 / .404

PA296

HR9

SB5

K%24

BB%8

BABIP299

ISO158

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

4112.0%

xwOBA

560.315

POWER45

Barrel%

528.4

Avg EV

6590.2

Bat Spd

5672.0

EYE55

Chase%

5231.2%

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	2 teams	—	93	88	22	5	0	0	3	13	2	4	3	250	290	307	597	57	293	14	3	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	2 teams	—	93	87	26	6	0	0	4	9	2	4	3	299	344	368	712	69	333	10	4	323	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	419	384	92	14	2	2	26	115	6	12	6	240	298	302	600	62	333	27	6	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	419	368	103	18	3	2	42	78	6	12	6	280	363	361	724	82	347	19	10	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	562	521	124	28	4	5	33	185	5	15	9	238	290	336	626	98	357	33	6	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	562	507	148	30	5	8	47	125	5	15	9	292	358	418	776	126	372	22	8	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	341	298	66	13	2	9	33	89	5	15	5	221	310	369	679	148	279	26	10	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	341	286	76	18	2	7	45	70	5	15	5	266	375	416	791	150	324	21	13	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	105	91	17	2	0	0	6	32	6	1	2	187	282	209	490	22	283	30	6	229	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	105	89	20	2	0	0	8	27	6	1	2	225	330	247	577	22	317	26	8	275	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	3 teams	—	472	425	115	18	3	8	32	91	9	22	10	271	335	384	718	113	326	19	7	313	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	3 teams	—	472	413	112	17	3	10	42	85	9	22	10	271	350	400	749	128	319	18	9	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	3 teams	—	391	364	95	14	3	16	20	73	4	10	1	261	307	448	755	187	286	19	5	321	104	+2	+2	-1	-4	+11	0.9
2023	28	MLB	3 teams	—	391	359	100	15	3	18	25	69	4	10	1	279	332	487	820	209	300	18	6	358	132	+14	+2	-1	-4	+11	2.2
2024	29	AAA	3 teams	—	304	273	65	18	1	7	26	81	3	7	4	238	311	388	700	150	312	27	9	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	3 teams	—	304	266	73	23	1	7	33	63	3	7	4	274	361	447	808	173	335	21	11	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	227	197	35	6	0	4	20	55	7	3	3	178	277	269	546	91	221	24	9	260	58	-11	-1	-5	-2	+6	-1.2
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	227	194	39	7	0	6	23	52	7	3	3	201	308	330	638	129	239	23	10	292	81	-5	-1	-5	-2	+6	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	AAA	PIT	—	19	17	2	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	118	211	118	328		154	21	5	146	-30	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
YTD	31	AAA	PIT	—	19	17	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	118	211	118	328		143	16	5	171	-11	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
ROS	31	AAA	PIT	10%	296	265	65	13	1	9	24	70	5	5	1	245	320	404	724	158	296	24	8	322	104	+1	+1	-1	-3	+8	0.6
ROS	31	MLB	PIT	10%	30	28	6	1	0	1	2	7	0	1	0	214	267	357	624	143	295	23	7	309	94	-0	+0	-0	-0	+1	0.0
FULL	31	AAA	PIT	—	49	45	8	1	0	1	3	11	1	1	0	178	245	267	512	89	212	22	6	246	46	-3	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.2
TOT	31	AAA	PIT	—	315	282	67	13	1	9	25	74	6	5	1	238	313	387	700	149	290	23	8	311	96	-1	+1	-1	-3	+9	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	PIT	33%	296	265	63	12	1	9	24	71	5	5	1	238	313	392	705	155	291	24	8	315	99	-0	+1	-5	-3	+8	0.1
2028	33	MLB	PIT	46%	266	238	56	10	1	8	22	65	4	3	1	235	311	387	697	151	285	24	8	307	93	-2	+0	-5	-3	+8	-0.3
2027	32	MLB	PIT	33%	97	87	21	4	0	3	8	23	2	1	0	241	320	391	710	149	290	24	8	302	89	-1	+0	-2	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	33	MLB	PIT	46%	122	109	25	5	0	3	10	30	2	1	0	229	306	358	664	128	284	25	8	294	83	-2	+0	-2	-1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	827	748	169	27	2	22	58	190	14	10	0	226	294	356	650	130	273	23	7	290	80	-19	+2	-11	-19	+23	-2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	133	21	2	17	46	149	11	8	0	226	295	355	650	129	274	23	7	290	80	-15	+2	-9	-15	+18	-1.9
Career	—			—	3772	3409	815	153	18	77	269	940	61	102	46	239	306	362	669	123	306	25	7	294	83	-71	+2	-18	-40	+107	-2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	140	26	3	13	46	162	11	18	8	239	305	359	665	121	306	25	7	294	83	-12	+0	-3	-7	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	40	38	13	3	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	342	375	421	796	79	371	8	2	358	132	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.2
2016	21	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	53	49	13	3	0	0	3	6	1	4	1	265	321	327	647	61	302	11	6	297	85	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2017	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	419	368	103	18	3	2	42	78	6	12	6	280	363	361	724	82	347	19	10	330	111	+5	+0	—	—	+12	1.7
2018	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	562	507	148	30	5	8	47	125	5	15	9	292	358	418	776	126	372	22	8	346	123	+15	-1	—	—	+16	3.1
2019	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	341	286	76	18	2	7	45	70	5	15	5	266	375	416	791	150	324	21	13	353	128	+11	+1	—	—	+10	2.2
2021	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	42	35	7	0	0	0	3	11	2	0	0	200	300	200	500		280	26	7	236	39	-3	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.3
2021	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	63	54	13	2	0	0	5	16	4	1	2	241	349	278	627	37	342	25	8	301	88	-1	-1	—	—	+2	0.0
2022	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	49	47	10	2	0	0	1	15	1	1	0	213	245	255	500	43	312	31	2	229	34	-4	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.8
2022	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	342	296	87	12	2	9	35	55	6	21	8	294	378	439	817	145	335	16	10	363	136	+14	+1	—	—	+10	2.5
2022	27	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	81	70	15	3	1	1	6	15	2	0	2	214	295	329	623	114	255	19	7	275	68	-3	-1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	264	247	59	9	2	10	12	56	2	5	0	239	280	413	693	174	269	21	5	302	90	-3	+1	-1	-4	+7	-0.0
2023	28	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	90	78	32	4	1	8	11	11	1	4	1	410	489	795	1.284	385	407	12	12	544	275	+18	+0	—	—	+3	2.1
2023	28	AA	Altoona Curve	—	37	34	9	2	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	265	324	324	648	59	281	5	5	298	86	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	78	67	15	2	0	2	10	12	1	1	0	224	333	343	677	119	245	15	13	313	98	-0	+0	-1	-3	+2	-0.2
2024	29	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	208	182	53	19	1	5	22	47	2	5	4	291	374	489	863	198	366	23	11	378	147	+11	-1	—	—	+6	1.7
2024	29	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	18	17	5	2	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	294	333	412	745	118	385	22	6	332	112	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	145	128	26	4	0	3	12	36	4	0	0	203	292	305	596	102	258	25	8	275	69	-5	+0	-5	-2	+4	-0.8
2025	30	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	82	66	13	3	0	3	11	16	3	3	3	197	338	379	716	182	204	20	13	321	104	+0	-1	—	—	+2	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	578	524	117	17	2	15	38	130	10	7	0	223	288	349	638	126	268	22	7	286	77	-15	+1	-7	-16	+16	-2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	7	1,560	54	2	243	309	416	-15	-16	1.6	1.6
#4John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	/162	664	23	1	243	309	416	-6.5	-6.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	737	22	10	231	296	378	-8	-7	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	20	9	231	296	378	-7.1	-6.7	0.4	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joshua Palacios (OGILVIE)	31	45	45	45	55	238/313/387	149	290	9	5	23%	8%	96	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rafael Ortega 2022 · MLB	31	49→54	53→55	49→55	49	254/317/429	176	298	21	17	23%	8%	111	+2.5	232/319/365	133	283	14	20	22%	11%	95	+1.4	217/315/340	123	267	13	24	22%	12%	85	+0.4
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	49	226/296/394	168	267	19	5	23%	8%	93	+1.3	214/280/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	79	+0.3	160/214/281	121	200	11	4	26%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Todd Hollandsworth 2004 · MLB	31	54→56	51→55	43→50	50	269/330/445	176	320	16	9	21%	8%	120	+3.1	260/319/427	167	306	17	7	20%	8%	111	+2.5	258/311/426	167	300	17	4	20%	7%	102	+0.8
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	46→47	49→55	43→40	53	230/316/381	151	281	16	8	24%	10%	98	+1.6	203/297/330	127	279	12	6	29%	11%	78	+0.2	175/277/284	109	247	10	2	31%	11%	55	-0.6
✕John Rodriguez 2009 · MLB	31	47	49→55	45→40	47	234/310/385	151	297	17	4	26%	8%	97	+1.5	221/290/372	151	270	17	5	24%	7%	85	+0.7	209/280/361	152	250	17	2	23%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Henry Ramos 2023 · MLB	31	52→56	51→50	43→50	47	265/324/423	159	309	19	9	21%	7%	112	+2.6	257/328/408	151	325	15	11	24%	9%	109	+2.4	268/346/423	155	342	15	10	24%	9%	117	+2.0
✕Daniel Descalso 2018 · MLB	31	46→55	47→50	52→45	56	228/320/370	142	273	14	7	21%	11%	97	+1.5	220/322/371	151	285	15	5	26%	13%	98	+1.6	204/318/354	150	268	15	2	27%	14%	89	+0.5
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	44→43	51→50	39→30	52	225/307/380	155	281	19	2	27%	11%	95	+1.4	230/320/383	153	314	18	7	30%	11%	101	+1.8	216/328/374	158	307	19	5	32%	14%	99	+0.8
✕Ben Gamel 2023 · MLB	31	49→59	47→50	43→50	54	238/328/381	142	303	13	7	24%	11%	103	+1.9	236/330/383	147	321	15	7	28%	12%	105	+2.1	228/330/376	148	321	15	6	31%	13%	99	+0.8
✕Jarrett Parker 2019 · MLB	30	47→51	51→55	46→50	46	234/305/396	162	318	18	7	31%	9%	98	+1.6	211/301/376	165	313	20	6	36%	11%	91	+1.1	179/284/343	164	262	22	2	38%	12%	76	+0.0
●Garrett Jones 2012 · MLB	31	49→53	54→60	47→50	51	252/318/438	185	287	21	10	20%	9%	114	+2.7	254/311/454	200	292	23	4	21%	8%	115	+2.8	254/310/454	200	291	23	2	21%	7%	111	+2.1
✕Paul McAnulty 2012 · MLB	31	46→50	52→60	41→40	45	238/289/404	166	277	21	4	23%	6%	92	+1.2	231/302/424	193	277	25	5	26%	9%	104	+2.0	208/298/429	221	235	30	1	27%	10%	103	+1.6
●Yadiel Hernandez 2019 · AAA	31	51→55	48→55	45	48	256/314/398	141	307	17	6	22%	8%	101	+1.8	258/315/436	178	322	24	7	26%	8%	112	+2.6	266/321/441	175	324	25	6	25%	7%	113	+1.8
✕Mark Payton 2022 · MLB	30	48→53	48→55	48→50	46	242/293/391	150	287	15	10	22%	6%	91	+1.1	236/291/369	133	279	12	11	19%	7%	84	+0.6	239/296/369	130	282	12	10	19%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Armando Rios 2003 · MLB	31	52	49→55	45	53	258/325/410	152	298	15	6	19%	9%	109	+2.4	239/295/364	125	271	13	7	17%	7%	85	+0.7	206/241/290	84	217	11	0	12%	4%	40	-0.5
✕Eric Munson 2008 · MLB	30	44→43	51→60	43→40	50	229/295/391	161	254	20	3	19%	8%	92	+1.2	214/290/354	140	256	16	3	22%	9%	81	+0.4	197/283/334	137	237	16	0	24%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Cole Gillespie 2015 · MLB	31	49→59	46→50	50	50	244/311/377	132	293	14	12	21%	8%	95	+1.4	246/300/346	100	299	7	12	19%	7%	81	+0.4	245/298/331	85	301	3	11	18%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2018 · MLB	31	53→63	45	51→60	50	257/325/374	117	317	13	15	23%	8%	99	+1.7	223/282/332	109	289	11	19	25%	7%	70	-0.3	174/208/234	60	231	3	36	25%	4%	10	-1.2
✕Jon Weber 2009 · AAA	31	48→54	46→50	48→50	45	238/289/374	136	288	13	12	22%	6%	85	+0.7	237/295/367	130	294	11	8	22%	7%	85	+0.7	239/301/367	127	295	10	5	21%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Darren Bragg 2001 · MLB	31	47	46→45	51→50	51	231/305/365	134	288	13	13	24%	10%	89	+1.0	245/316/364	119	323	9	13	25%	9%	93	+1.3	239/311/346	108	305	8	9	23%	9%	83	+0.2