Mike Tauchman

RF Syracuse Mets

Age 36 L/L 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	33	MLBCHC	350	.248/.358/.366	7	6	110	0.6
2025	34	AAACWS	43	.111/.238/.194	1	0	-16	—	.105/.190/.184
2025	34	MLBCWS	385	.263/.357/.400	9	0	117	1.0
2026	35	AAA/ANYM	52	.213/.288/.277	0	0	24	—	.191/.250/.256
2027PROJ10% MLB	36	MLBNYM	12	.238/.331/.370	0	0	105	0.0
2028PROJ	37	MLBNYM	80	.225/.318/.342	2	0	94	-0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service10.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

xwOBA71

Avg EV45

Barrel%37

Bat Spd29

Speed10

CompsKosuke Fukudome (age 35) · Leobardo Arauz (age 36) · Mario Valdez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 97105vR 107

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .331 / .370

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP290

ISO130

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT50

xAVG

460.248

POWER45

Barrel%

376.5

Avg EV

4588.8

Bat Spd

2969.1

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED30

Sprint

1024.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 735 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

140

595

—

wRC+

112

—

wOBA

334

—

ISO

142

125

◀L

BABIP

308

315

—

22.9%

20.8%

▶R

BB%

11.4%

12.8%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$1M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	23	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	228	197	58	11	4	4	29	41	1	9	3	294	388	452	839	157	353	18	13	374	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	563	508	149	23	6	3	46	69	2	25	13	293	354	380	734	87	333	12	8	328	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	527	475	136	24	7	1	40	77	2	23	10	286	344	373	717	86	337	15	8	318	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	136	119	32	4	0	1	11	16	3	5	5	269	346	328	674	59	301	12	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	32	27	6	0	1	0	5	10	0	1	2	222	344	296	640	74	353	31	16	301	78	-1	-1	-1	-5	+1	-0.7
2017	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	475	420	139	30	8	16	40	73	4	16	7	331	394	555	949	224	361	15	8	405	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	37	32	3	1	0	0	4	15	0	1	0	94	194	125	319	31	176	41	11	159	-7	-5	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.2
2018	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	471	403	130	26	7	20	60	70	2	12	10	323	413	571	984	248	345	15	13	423	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	296	260	72	18	1	13	34	71	1	6	0	277	363	504	867	227	333	24	11	380	140	+14	+1	+7	-4	+6	2.4
2019	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	114	95	26	10	3	2	16	16	2	4	0	274	389	505	895	232	308	14	14	390	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	111	95	23	6	0	0	14	26	1	6	0	242	345	305	651	63	329	23	13	303	79	-3	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2021	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	191	166	30	5	0	4	23	58	1	3	3	181	284	283	567	102	250	30	12	265	69	-7	-1	+2	-4	+4	-0.5
2021	30	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	154	128	34	9	2	3	20	36	3	2	1	266	377	438	815	172	337	23	13	359	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	401	337	85	18	0	8	56	86	4	7	1	252	365	377	742	125	313	21	14	337	113	+6	+1	+0	+2	+9	1.8
2023	32	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	103	79	22	4	0	3	21	21	1	1	0	278	436	443	879	165	333	20	20	392	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	350	298	74	12	1	7	47	70	4	6	2	248	358	366	724	117	302	20	13	332	110	+4	+0	-2	-4	+8	0.6
2025	34	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	385	335	88	17	1	9	45	86	4	0	0	263	357	400	757	137	328	22	12	342	117	+8	+0	-1	-5	+8	1.0
2025	34	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	43	36	4	0	0	1	6	13	0	0	0	111	238	194	433	83	130	30	14	209	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	33	32	6	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	188	212	219	431	31	222	15	3	197	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	19	15	4	2	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	267	421	400	821	133	333	16	16	379	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1803	1550	381	77	4	41	228	422	15	30	8	246	348	380	728	134	311	23	13	330	110	+20	+3	+5	-19	+39	4.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	23	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	228	205	48	8	3	3	21	56	1	9	3	234	308	346	655	112	304	25	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	563	521	144	20	7	2	33	86	2	25	13	276	322	353	675	77	321	15	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	527	490	122	20	5	1	25	105	2	23	10	249	288	316	605	67	304	20	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	32	27	6	0	1	0	5	10	0	1	2	222	344	296	640	74	353	31	16	284	78	-1	-1	-1	-5	+1	-0.7
2017	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	475	433	117	24	6	10	27	98	4	16	7	270	319	423	742	152	308	21	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	37	32	3	1	0	0	4	15	0	1	0	94	194	125	319	31	176	41	11	158	-7	-5	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.2
2018	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	471	423	109	22	6	13	40	92	2	12	10	258	325	430	755	173	293	20	8	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	296	260	71	18	1	12	34	71	1	6	0	273	359	488	848	215	333	24	11	375	140	+14	+1	+7	-4	+6	2.4
2019	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	114	101	23	8	3	2	10	19	2	4	0	228	310	426	735	198	254	17	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	111	98	23	6	0	0	11	26	1	6	0	235	318	296	614	61	329	23	10	285	79	-3	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	191	166	30	5	0	4	23	58	1	3	3	181	284	283	567	102	250	30	12	269	69	-7	-1	+2	-4	+4	-0.5
2021	30	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	154	134	30	8	2	2	14	42	3	2	1	224	311	358	669	134	290	27	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	401	338	84	17	0	8	55	86	4	7	1	249	360	370	730	121	313	21	14	335	113	+6	+1	+0	+2	+9	1.8
2023	32	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	103	87	19	3	0	2	13	25	1	1	0	218	327	322	649	103	277	24	13	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	350	298	74	12	1	7	47	70	4	6	2	248	358	366	724	117	302	20	13	331	110	+4	+0	-2	-4	+8	0.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	385	335	88	17	1	9	45	86	4	0	0	263	357	400	757	137	328	22	12	341	117	+8	+0	-1	-5	+8	1.0
2025	34	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	43	38	4	0	0	1	4	16	0	0	0	105	190	184	375	79	111	37	9	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	33	32	5	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	156	182	188	369	31	191	18	3	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	19	16	4	2	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	250	368	375	743	125	274	21	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	228	205	48	8	3	3	21	56	1	9	3	234	308	346	655	112	306	25	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	228	197	58	11	4	4	29	41	1	9	3	294	388	452	839	157	353	18	13	374	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	563	521	144	20	7	2	33	86	2	25	13	276	322	353	675	77	326	15	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA RAW	New Britain Rock Cats	—	563	508	149	23	6	3	46	69	2	25	13	293	354	380	734	87	333	12	8	328	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	663	613	154	25	7	1	32	132	5	28	15	251	294	320	614	69	315	20	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	663	594	168	28	7	2	51	93	5	28	15	283	345	364	708	81	329	14	8	316	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	507	460	122	24	6	10	32	108	4	17	9	265	319	409	727	143	318	21	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	507	447	145	30	9	16	45	83	4	17	9	324	391	539	930	215	360	16	9	399	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	508	455	112	23	6	13	44	107	2	13	10	246	315	409	724	163	290	21	9	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	508	435	133	27	7	20	64	85	2	13	10	306	397	538	935	232	336	17	13	404	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	410	361	94	26	4	14	44	90	3	10	0	260	346	471	817	211	309	22	11	357	128	+14	+2	+7	-4	+9	2.7
2019	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	410	355	98	28	4	15	50	87	3	10	0	276	370	504	874	228	325	21	12	383	128	+14	+2	+7	-4	+9	2.7
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	111	98	23	6	0	0	11	26	1	6	0	235	318	296	614	61	315	23	10	285	79	-3	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	111	95	23	6	0	0	14	26	1	6	0	242	345	305	651	63	329	23	13	303	79	-3	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	345	300	60	13	2	6	37	100	4	5	4	200	296	317	613	117	274	29	11	282	77	-10	-1	+2	-4	+7	-0.4
2021	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	345	294	64	14	2	7	43	94	4	5	4	218	326	350	676	133	291	27	12	307	77	-10	-1	+2	-4	+7	-0.4
2023	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	504	425	105	21	0	11	68	111	5	8	1	247	357	374	732	127	305	22	13	330	109	+6	+1	+0	+2	+11	2.0
2023	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	504	416	107	22	0	11	77	107	5	8	1	257	380	389	769	132	317	21	15	348	109	+6	+1	+0	+2	+11	2.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	350	298	74	12	1	7	47	70	4	6	2	248	358	366	724	117	302	20	13	331	110	+4	+0	-2	-4	+8	0.6
2024	33	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	350	298	74	12	1	7	47	70	4	6	2	248	358	366	724	117	302	20	13	332	110	+4	+0	-2	-4	+8	0.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	428	373	91	17	1	9	49	102	4	0	0	244	338	367	705	123	311	24	11	321	103	+2	+0	-1	-5	+9	0.5
2025	34	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	428	371	92	17	1	10	51	99	4	0	0	248	345	380	725	132	311	23	12	329	103	+2	+0	-1	-5	+9	0.5
2026	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	52	48	8	2	0	0	3	10	1	0	0	167	231	208	439	42	211	19	6	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	52	47	10	3	0	0	4	8	1	0	0	213	288	277	565	64	256	15	8	264	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	228	204	48	8	3	3	21	56	1	9	3	235	308	348	656	113	304	25	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	563	523	144	20	7	2	33	86	2	25	13	275	322	352	674	76	321	15	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	663	621	154	25	7	1	32	132	5	28	15	248	294	316	609	68	304	20	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	507	466	122	24	6	10	32	108	4	17	9	262	319	403	722	142	311	21	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	508	457	112	23	6	13	44	107	2	13	10	245	315	407	722	162	285	21	9	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	410	360	94	26	4	14	44	90	3	10	0	261	346	472	818	211	311	22	11	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	111	98	23	6	0	0	11	26	1	6	0	235	318	296	614	61	329	23	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	345	301	60	13	2	6	37	100	4	5	4	199	296	316	612	116	268	29	11	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	504	426	105	21	0	11	68	111	5	8	1	246	357	373	731	127	306	22	13	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	350	296	74	12	1	7	47	70	4	6	2	250	358	368	726	118	302	20	13	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	428	372	91	17	1	9	49	102	4	0	0	245	338	368	706	124	306	24	11	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	52	48	8	2	0	0	3	10	1	0	0	167	231	208	439	42	221	19	6	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	350	296	74	12	1	7	47	70	4	6	2	250	358	368	726	118	302	20	13	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	428	372	91	17	1	9	49	102	4	0	0	245	338	368	706	124	306	24	11	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	52	48	8	2	0	0	3	10	1	0	0	167	231	208	439	42	221	19	6	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYM	10%	200	174	43	8	1	5	22	44	2	2	1	245	338	380	718	135	300	22	11	324	105	+1	+0	+0	-2	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	NYM	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	238	331	370	701	132	290	25	8	317	105	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	80	70	16	3	0	2	9	18	1	0	0	232	324	352	675	120	288	22	11	307	94	-1	+0	-7	-1	+2	-0.7
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	80	70	16	3	0	2	9	18	1	0	0	225	318	342	660	117	279	22	11	300	94	-1	+0	-7	-1	+2	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1883	1620	397	80	4	43	237	440	16	30	8	245	347	379	726	134	309	23	13	329	95	+20	+3	-2	-20	+41	4.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	559	137	28	1	15	82	152	6	10	3	245	348	379	727	134	310	23	13	329	95	+7	+1	-1	-7	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4873	4335	1077	205	37	81	444	1043	38	128	57	248	324	369	693	120	306	21	9	308	95	+21	+3	-2	-22	+43	4.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	144	27	5	11	59	139	5	17	8	249	323	370	694	121	307	21	9	308	95	+7	+1	-1	-7	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 33 PAwOBA .192 → .156 (−36)K% 15.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.15%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.03%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	1.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.52%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.940	16.19%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.940	2.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .192 → .156; ISO .031 → .024; BABIP .222 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 19 PAwOBA .371 → .285 (−86)K% 15.8% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	10.24%
HBP% /PA	5.26%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	3.86%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.940	14.41%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.940	13.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (14.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .371 → .285; ISO .133 → .106; BABIP .333 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 43 PAwOBA .209 → .145 (−64)K% 30.2% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.23%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	36.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.95%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.940	9.20%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.04%	÷1.002	×0.930	—	×0.940	11.38%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.980	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷1.320	×0.700	—	×0.940	2.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .209 → .145; ISO .083 → .042; BABIP .130 → .111. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 103 PAwOBA .390 → .309 (−82)K% 20.4% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.39%	÷1.019	×1.200	—	—	24.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.39%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.942	13.07%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.86%
Singles /BIP	25.86%	÷1.025	×0.930	×1.011	×0.942	22.35%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.049	×0.830	×1.011	×0.942	5.20%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.916	×0.970	×1.011	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.17%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.53%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 110, 3B 83, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .390 → .309; ISO .165 → .128; BABIP .333 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 154 PAwOBA .357 → .297 (−60)K% 23.4% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.38%	÷1.034	×1.200	—	—	27.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.99%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×0.962	9.02%
HBP% /PA	1.95%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.76%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷1.049	×0.930	×1.003	×0.962	18.59%
Doubles /BIP	9.78%	÷0.916	×0.830	×1.003	×0.962	8.55%
Triples /BIP	2.17%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.003	×0.962	2.14%
Home runs /BIP	3.26%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.21%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 107, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .357 → .297; ISO .172 → .145; BABIP .337 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 114 PAwOBA .381 → .310 (−70)K% 14.0% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.04%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	16.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.16%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.37%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.62%
Singles /BIP	13.92%	÷1.019	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	11.85%
Doubles /BIP	12.66%	÷1.009	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	9.71%
Triples /BIP	3.80%	÷0.938	×0.970	×0.950	×0.982	3.66%
Home runs /BIP	2.53%	÷1.087	×0.840	—	×0.982	1.92%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .381 → .310; ISO .232 → .201; BABIP .308 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 471 PAwOBA .416 → .331 (−85)K% 14.9% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.86%	÷0.978	×1.290	—	—	19.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.31%	÷1.024	×0.710	—	×0.992	8.47%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.41%
Singles /BIP	23.12%	÷1.034	×0.900	×1.015	×0.992	20.27%
Doubles /BIP	7.81%	÷0.960	×0.810	×1.015	×0.992	6.63%
Triples /BIP	2.10%	÷0.973	×0.810	×1.015	×0.992	1.76%
Home runs /BIP	6.01%	÷1.162	×0.780	—	×0.992	4.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 95, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .416 → .331; ISO .248 → .185; BABIP .345 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 475 PAwOBA .401 → .321 (−80)K% 15.4% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.37%	÷0.956	×1.290	—	—	20.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.79%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×1.003	5.57%
HBP% /PA	0.84%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.83%
Singles /BIP	24.50%	÷1.019	×0.900	×1.024	×1.003	22.22%
Doubles /BIP	8.65%	÷1.045	×0.810	×1.024	×1.003	6.88%
Triples /BIP	2.31%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.024	×1.003	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	4.61%	÷1.202	×0.780	—	×1.003	3.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .401 → .321; ISO .224 → .158; BABIP .361 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Michaelslast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,623 PA	4.0	2,623	59	22	263	336	408	-16	+17	10.2	10.6
/162	664	15	6	-3.9	+4.3	2.6	pk7: 11
#2Mike Aldrete'86-'96 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,498 PA	3.8	2,498	41	19	258*	350*	392*	-34	+1	6.7	7.1
/162	664	11	5	-9.0	+0.2	1.8	pk7: 8
#3Mike Hegan'64-'77 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,444 PA	3.7	2,444	53	28	245*	342*	410*	-42	+10	6.1	6.5
/162	664	14	8	-11.4	+2.6	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	2.8	1,826	43	28	251	348	388	-21	+2	5.6	5.6
/162	664	16	10	-7.5	+0.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#5Jeff DaVanon'99-'07 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,505 PA	2.3	1,505	33	59	249*	340*	389*	-12	+4	4.2	4.5
/162	664	15	26	-5.1	+1.8	1.9	pk7: 5
#6Daric Bartonlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,085 PA	3.1	2,085	30	13	247	356	365	-37	-10	3.0	3.4
/162	664	10	4	-11.9	-3.1	0.9	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mike Tauchman (OGILVIE)	36	50	45	30	60	242/335/377	134	300	3	1	22%	11%	105	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kosuke Fukudome 2012 · MLB	35	53→54	46→50	39→50	59	257/345/393	136	299	12	7	18%	12%	111	+2.1	239/325/351	112	287	10	7	19%	11%	95	+0.9	207/318/270	63	257	5	2	19%	14%	75	-0.2
✕Leobardo Arauz 2013 · AAA	36	46→56	46→45	34→45	57	225/311/353	128	247	13	4	16%	10%	91	+0.6	220/299/321	101	251	10	4	16%	10%	78	-0.3	217/295/298	82	247	7	2	15%	9%	70	-0.5
✕Mario Valdez 2011 · AAA	36	52	47→50	41→40	52	256/317/392	136	276	14	5	13%	8%	101	+1.4	256/307/394	138	296	16	6	19%	6%	97	+1.1	253/292/337	84	323	9	2	24%	5%	78	-0.1
●Scott Hatteberg 2006 · MLB	36	54→62	44→50	39→30	59	261/338/376	115	272	11	1	9%	10%	105	+1.7	277/359/415	138	289	13	3	9%	11%	122	+2.9	292/381/442	151	300	14	1	8%	12%	136	+3.2
✕Francisco Mendez 2013 · AAA	35	46→56	44→45	39→40	53	227/309/340	113	282	12	3	23%	10%	86	+0.3	216/291/327	111	297	12	4	29%	9%	76	-0.4	214/291/320	106	293	12	2	29%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Greg Norton 2008 · MLB	36	51	51→60	36→40	55	255/337/415	160	301	19	4	22%	11%	114	+2.3	243/337/377	134	295	14	6	21%	12%	105	+1.7	235/341/360	124	284	12	3	20%	13%	104	+0.5
✕Roberto Mendez 2010 · AAA	37	48→56	45	41→45	56	234/312/355	120	267	13	7	18%	10%	91	+0.6	240/309/355	115	290	12	5	20%	9%	89	+0.5	243/319/350	107	293	9	2	19%	10%	90	+0.2
✕A.J. Ellis 2016 · MLB	35	46→54	45	42→40	61	224/325/346	122	255	13	2	17%	12%	95	+0.9	230/319/355	125	266	13	5	18%	10%	94	+0.9	229/319/333	104	270	10	2	18%	10%	90	+0.2
✕Raul Gonzalez 2010 · AAA	36	54→58	42→45	38→50	51	262/317/363	101	294	9	7	14%	7%	94	+0.9	262/325/393	131	305	13	16	18%	8%	104	+1.6	281/347/422	140	326	14	21	17%	8%	114	+1.1
✕David DeJesus 2015 · MLB	35	51→61	46→50	41→45	55	248/331/394	146	284	12	6	17%	10%	107	+1.8	238/308/364	126	274	12	7	17%	8%	91	+0.7	231/294/328	97	267	9	6	16%	6%	78	-0.1
✕Greg Dobbs 2014 · MLB	36	53→58	42→55	44→50	45	257/299/361	104	295	9	5	16%	5%	86	+0.3	226/275/333	107	275	11	7	21%	6%	72	-0.7	185/210/245	60	239	6	0	25%	3%	23	-1.0
✕Shamar Almeida 2008 · AAA	36	47	42→45	43→45	60	227/322/329	102	258	10	6	16%	12%	89	+0.5	234/305/338	104	283	9	6	19%	8%	84	+0.2	276/331/378	101	334	8	0	19%	7%	104	+0.7
✕Mark Kotsay 2011 · MLB	35	52→62	45→50	40→50	53	251/303/378	127	263	12	5	11%	7%	92	+0.7	247/302/356	109	268	10	6	12%	7%	86	+0.3	244/299/326	81	270	6	3	11%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Chris Widger 2006 · MLB	35	48	47→60	39→40	49	239/295/378	139	263	14	5	16%	7%	90	+0.6	225/296/354	129	267	14	7	20%	9%	84	+0.2	167/252/229	62	211	6	0	22%	10%	41	-0.5
✕Mendy López 2010 · AAA	36	48→54	50→55	39→30	51	244/313/398	154	295	17	3	23%	9%	101	+1.4	242/311/400	158	312	20	3	27%	9%	101	+1.4	230/306/399	169	293	24	1	29%	9%	98	+0.7
✕Carlos Sievers 2011 · AAA	36	48→58	48→50	41→45	53	239/313/376	137	253	16	4	14%	8%	97	+1.1	225/294/342	117	257	14	6	18%	8%	82	-0.0	213/283/316	103	244	13	5	19%	8%	72	-0.4
✕Eric Karros 2004 · MLB	36	53→55	49→55	44→40	51	267/322/414	147	288	17	4	14%	7%	108	+1.9	246/302/393	147	270	16	7	15%	7%	96	+1.0	191/234/305	114	207	11	5	14%	5%	50	-0.4
✕Hector Garanzuay 2016 · AAA	35	52→61	39→45	37→50	47	251/295/335	84	282	7	5	14%	5%	79	-0.2	238/289/331	93	273	8	7	16%	6%	76	-0.4	225/283/291	66	250	7	5	12%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Gregg Zaun 2006 · MLB	35	52→51	45→50	37→45	62	253/347/379	126	279	12	3	14%	12%	109	+2.0	249/338/403	154	269	16	3	14%	12%	112	+2.2	243/335/401	158	259	17	1	13%	12%	111	+1.2
✕Luis Mauricio Suarez 2015 · AAA	36	54→64	40→50	40→45	46	257/300/356	99	304	7	6	18%	6%	85	+0.2	219/264/304	85	254	7	6	16%	5%	60	-1.6	206/252/274	68	234	6	4	15%	5%	48	-1.2

Mike Tauchman

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps