Ben Gamel

LF Gwinnett Stripers
Age 35 L/L 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202432AAANYM190.314/.428/.5387097—.236/.326/.376
202432MLBHOU99.247/.384/.33311107-0.3
202533AAA/A+LAA214.281/.402/.53910288—.206/.299/.370
202634AAAATL225.210/.338/.3283241—.162/.252/.247
2027PROJ10% MLB35MLBATL15.225/.316/.3560092-0.0
2028PROJ36MLBATL110.212/.303/.3292081-0.8
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service11.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024
xwOBA63
Avg EV48
Bat Spd42
Barrel%41
Speed37
CompsShamar Almeida (age 35) · Mike Tauchman (age 33) · Nick Martini (age 33)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†92
AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .316 / .356
PA15
HR0
K%33
BB%13
BABIP319
ISO77
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.6 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +3.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.0-0.82728
Tools · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2022-2024
CONTACT
xAVG
420.244
POWER
Barrel%
417.0
Avg EV
4889.0
Bat Spd
4270.5
SPEED
Sprint
3726.9
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2016
Service   11.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M———
Totals $1M $0.0M -$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201018 ROKGCL Yankees — 2825 7100 380 12 280357320677 40412 2911 315 29 — — — — — —
201220 ACharleston RiverDogs — 476444 1362352 23714 1910 306346394740 88356 155 329 81 — — — — — —
201321 AATrenton Thunder — 7267 16401 4180 10 239282343625 104312 256 277 48 — — — — — —
201321 A+Tampa Yankees — 423364 992843 48771 215 272358396754 124330 1811 333 94 — — — — — —
201422 AATrenton Thunder — 586544 1423132 36882 135 261309340649 79306 156 292 67 — — — — — —
201523 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 551500 150281410 461081 135 300360472832 172364 208 365 103 — — — — — —
201523 INTLLeones del Caracas — 10187 22403 11180 31 253337402739 149275 1811 323 105 — — — — — —
201624 MLBSeattle Mariners — 5748 9201 6160 00 188278292569 104258 2811 250 57 -3 +0 -1 -6 +1 -0.9
201624 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 533483 1492656 43942 198 308367420788 112370 188 350 103 — — — — — —
201725 MLBSeattle Mariners — 550509 14027511 361221 41 275324413737 138340 227 326 108 +5 +0 -8 -7 +12 0.3
201725 AAATacoma Rainiers — 7560 18111 12112 11 300432400832 100347 1516 379 107 — — — — — —
201826 MLBSeattle Mariners — 293257 701441 31614 73 272360370729 97352 2111 332 111 +4 +0 -3 -4 +6 0.3
201826 AAATacoma Rainiers — 9483 29831 10120 40 349419554974 205394 1311 421 143 — — — — — —
201826 A+Modesto Nuts — 2117 5100 420 11 294429353782 59333 1019 366 82 — — — — — —
201927 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 356311 771807 401043 22 248339373712 125347 2911 323 104 +2 -0 +0 -4 +8 0.5
201927 AAASan Antonio Missions — 1914 4001 431 10 286474500974 214300 1621 438 125 — — — — — —
202028 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 127114 27813 13390 02 237315404718 167333 3110 321 106 +1 -1 -1 -1 +3 0.1
202129 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 400340 841838 511053 36 247350388738 141329 2613 330 108 +4 -2 -12 -4 +9 -0.5
202230 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 423371 862029 48983 51 232325369694 137291 2311 315 98 -1 +1 -7 -5 +9 -0.4
202230 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 3531 7101 262 00 226314355669 129250 176 307 44 — — — — — —
202331 MLBSan Diego Padres — 1515 3100 020 00 200200267467 67231 130 206 30 -1 +0 -0 -4 +0 -0.5
202331 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 332273 7817113 53732 64 286405498904 212342 2216 396 97 — — — — — —
202432 MLBHouston Astros — 9981 20401 18240 10 247384333717 86339 2418 337 107 +1 +0 -3 -3 +2 -0.3
202432 AAASyracuse Mets — 190156 491217 31460 00 314428538966 224400 2416 418 97 — — — — — —
202533 AAASalt Lake Bees — 199164 451318 32513 22 274402512914 238352 2616 404 88 — — — — — —
202533 A+Tri-City Dust Devils — 1514 5102 170 00 3574008571.257 500600 477 530 90 — — — — — —
202634 AAAGwinnett Stripers — 225186 39923 33713 22 210338328666 118313 3215 306 41 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 23202046 5161121541 24357114 2215 252336382717 130329 2510 322 104 +12 -2 -35 -39 +50 -1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201018 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 2826 5100 2120 12 192250231481 38339 437 211 29 — — — — — —
201220 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 476452 1251851 15984 1910 277306345651 69344 213 288 81 — — — — — —
201321 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 7268 15301 3220 10 221254309562 88308 314 239 48 — — — — — —
201321 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 423375 962933 371051 215 256324373698 117329 259 307 94 — — — — — —
201422 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 586553 1392832 271082 135 251289324612 72303 185 267 67 — — — — — —
201523 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 551520 143271210 261311 135 275311431742 156344 245 320 103 — — — — — —
201624 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 5748 9201 6160 00 188278292569 104258 2811 252 57 -3 +0 -1 -6 +1 -0.9
201624 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 533496 1462265 301142 198 294337393730 99365 216 321 103 — — — — — —
201725 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 550510 14027511 351221 41 275322412734 137340 226 328 108 +5 +0 -8 -7 +12 0.3
201725 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 7563 17111 9142 11 270378365743 95313 1912 327 107 — — — — — —
201826 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 293258 701441 30614 73 271356368724 97352 2110 332 111 +4 +0 -3 -4 +6 0.3
201826 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 9487 28831 6150 40 322366517883 195374 166 379 143 — — — — — —
201826 A+ MLEModesto Nuts — 2119 5100 230 11 263333316649 53290 1410 289 82 — — — — — —
201927 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 356313 781907 381043 22 249336377713 128347 2911 322 104 +2 -0 +0 -4 +8 0.5
201927 AAA MLESan Antonio Missions — 1915 4001 341 10 267421467888 200267 2116 353 125 — — — — — —
202028 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 127114 28913 13390 02 246323421744 175333 3110 325 106 +1 -1 -1 -1 +3 0.1
202129 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 400342 841739 491053 36 246345392737 146329 2612 329 108 +4 -2 -12 -4 +9 -0.5
202230 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 423373 8619210 46983 51 231320373693 142291 2311 313 98 -1 +1 -7 -5 +9 -0.4
202230 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 3532 6101 172 00 188257312570 125205 203 233 44 — — — — — —
202331 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 1515 3100 020 00 200200267467 67231 130 213 30 -1 +0 -0 -4 +0 -0.5
202331 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 332290 691419 36892 64 238326386712 148301 2711 311 97 — — — — — —
202432 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 9982 20401 17240 10 244374329703 85339 2417 327 107 +1 +0 -3 -3 +2 -0.3
202432 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 190165 39914 22570 00 236326376702 139321 3012 312 97 — — — — — —
202533 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 199175 361015 21623 22 206302360662 154291 3111 298 88 — — — — — —
202533 A+ MLETri-City Dust Devils — 1514 3101 190 00 214267500767 286456 607 301 90 — — — — — —
202634 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 225198 32722 21853 22 162252247500 86258 389 229 41 — — — — — —
201018 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 2826 5100 2120 12 192250231481 38357 437 211 29 — — — — — —
201018 ROK RAWGCL Yankees — 2825 7100 380 12 280357320677 40412 2911 315 29 — — — — — —
201220 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 476452 1251851 15984 1910 277306345651 69346 213 288 81 — — — — — —
201220 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 476444 1362352 23714 1910 306346394740 88356 155 329 81 — — — — — —
201321 A+ MLE2 teams — 495443 1123234 401271 225 253316366682 113339 268 297 87 — — — — — —
201321 A+ RAW2 teams — 495431 1153244 52951 225 267347387735 121327 1911 325 87 — — — — — —
201422 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 586553 1392832 271082 135 251289324612 72307 185 267 67 — — — — — —
201422 AA RAWTrenton Thunder — 586544 1423132 36882 135 261309340649 79306 156 292 67 — — — — — —
201523 AAA MLE2 teams — 652613 170321512 311551 166 277313437750 160350 245 320 103 — — — — — —
201523 AAA RAW2 teams — 652587 172321413 571261 166 293357462818 169350 199 358 103 — — — — — —
201624 AAA MLE2 teams — 590544 1552466 361302 198 285332384716 99362 226 314 99 — — — — — —
201624 AAA RAW2 teams — 590531 1582857 491102 198 298359409768 111361 198 341 99 — — — — — —
201725 MLB MLE2 teams — 625573 15728612 441363 52 274329407736 133338 227 328 108 +6 +0 -8 -7 +14 0.5
201725 MLB RAW2 teams — 625569 15828612 481333 52 278337411748 134341 218 332 108 +6 +0 -8 -7 +14 0.5
201826 MLB MLE3 teams — 408364 1032372 38794 124 283357401758 118354 199 341 117 +8 +1 -3 -4 +9 1.0
201826 MLB RAW3 teams — 408357 1042372 45754 124 291377412789 120362 1811 354 117 +8 +1 -3 -4 +9 1.0
201927 MLB MLE2 teams — 375328 811907 411084 32 247338369707 122344 2911 323 105 +2 -0 +0 -4 +8 0.7
201927 MLB RAW2 teams — 375325 811808 441074 32 249346378724 129344 2912 328 105 +2 -0 +0 -4 +8 0.7
202028 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 127114 28913 13390 02 246323421744 175347 3110 325 106 +1 -1 -1 -1 +3 0.1
202028 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 127114 27813 13390 02 237315404718 167333 3110 321 106 +1 -1 -1 -1 +3 0.1
202129 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 400342 841739 491053 36 246345392737 146323 2612 329 108 +4 -2 -12 -4 +9 -0.5
202129 MLB RAWPittsburgh Pirates — 400340 841838 511053 36 247350388738 141329 2613 330 108 +4 -2 -12 -4 +9 -0.5
202230 MLB MLE2 teams — 458405 9120210 471055 51 225313358671 133278 2310 307 94 -3 +1 -7 -5 +10 -0.5
202230 MLB RAW2 teams — 458402 9321210 501045 51 231324368692 137287 2311 314 94 -3 +1 -7 -5 +10 -0.5
202331 AAA MLE2 teams — 347305 721519 36912 64 236321380701 144303 2610 307 94 — — — — — —
202331 AAA RAW2 teams — 347288 8118113 53752 64 281397486883 205335 2215 388 94 — — — — — —
202432 AAA MLE2 teams — 289247 581315 39810 10 235339356695 121325 2813 317 101 — — — — — —
202432 AAA RAW2 teams — 289237 691618 49700 10 291413468881 177379 2417 390 101 — — — — — —
202533 AAA MLE2 teams — 214189 391116 22723 22 206299370669 164297 3410 298 88 — — — — — —
202533 AAA RAW2 teams — 214178 5014110 33583 22 281402539941 258364 2715 412 88 — — — — — —
202634 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 225198 32722 21853 22 162252247500 86263 389 229 41 — — — — — —
202634 AAA RAWGwinnett Stripers — 225186 39923 33713 22 210338328666 118313 3215 306 41 — — — — — —
201018 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 2826 5100 2120 12 192250231481 38339 437 211 29 — — — — — —
201220 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 476454 1251851 15984 1910 275306344649 68344 213 288 81 — — — — — —
201321 A+ MLE2 teams — 495451 1123234 401271 225 248316359675 111326 268 297 87 — — — — — —
201422 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 586552 1392832 271082 135 252289324613 72303 185 267 67 — — — — — —
201523 AAA MLE2 teams — 652615 170321512 311551 166 276313436749 159344 245 320 103 — — — — — —
201624 AAA MLE2 teams — 590547 1552466 361302 198 283332382714 99355 226 314 99 — — — — — —
201725 MLB MLE2 teams — 625573 15728612 441363 52 274329407736 133337 227 328 108 — — — — — —
201826 MLB MLE3 teams — 408363 1032372 38794 124 284357402759 118354 199 341 117 — — — — — —
201927 MLB MLE2 teams — 375327 811907 411084 32 248338370708 122343 2911 323 105 — — — — — —
202028 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 127113 28913 13390 02 248323425748 177333 3110 325 106 — — — — — —
202129 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 400345 841739 491053 36 243345388734 145329 2612 329 108 — — — — — —
202230 MLB MLE2 teams — 458403 9120210 471055 51 226313360673 134284 2310 307 94 — — — — — —
202331 AAA MLE2 teams — 347306 721519 36912 64 235321379700 144298 2610 307 94 — — — — — —
202432 AAA MLE2 teams — 289248 581315 39810 10 234339355694 121327 2813 317 101 — — — — — —
202533 AAA MLE2 teams — 214187 391116 22723 22 209299374673 166303 3410 298 88 — — — — — —
202634 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 225199 32722 21853 22 161252246498 85258 389 229 41 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202432 AAA MLE2 teams — 289248 581315 39810 10 234339355694 121327 2813 317 101 — — — — — —
202533 AAA MLE2 teams — 214187 391116 22723 22 209299374673 166303 3410 298 88 — — — — — —
202634 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 225199 32722 21853 22 161252246498 85258 389 229 41 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202735 MLB MLEATL 10% 244214 481115 26752 31 225316356672 131319 3111 304 92 -2 +0 -0 -3 +5 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202735 MLB CTXATL 10% 1513 3100 250 00 225316356672 131319 3313 304 92 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202836 MLB MLEATL 100% 11096 21412 12351 00 212303329632 117306 3211 288 81 -2 +0 -6 -1 +2 -0.8
202836 MLB CTXATL 100% 11096 21412 12351 00 212303329632 117306 3211 288 81 -2 +0 -6 -1 +2 -0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 24302142 5371161643 25560615 2215 251335380715 129328 2510 321 94 +10 -2 -41 -40 +53 -2.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650573 14431412 681624 64 251335382717 131328 2510 321 94 +3 -0 -11 -11 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 65565925 15023085895 529161339 13161 254319373692 120330 258 307 94 +8 -1 -41 -42 +56 -2.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650587 1493169 521604 136 254318373691 119331 258 307 94 +2 -0 -10 -10 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 225 PAwOBA .303 → .229 (−74)K% 31.6% → 37.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.56%÷1.000×1.200——37.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.67%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9409.51%
HBP% /PA1.33%—×0.940—×0.9401.18%
Singles /BIP21.74%÷1.000×0.930×0.974×0.94018.51%
Doubles /BIP7.83%÷1.000×0.830×0.974×0.9405.95%
Triples /BIP1.74%÷1.000×0.970×0.974×0.9401.54%
Home runs /BIP2.61%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9401.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .303 → .229; ISO .118 → .088; BABIP .313 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 199 PAwOBA .393 → .298 (−96)K% 25.6% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.63%÷0.978×1.200——31.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.08%÷0.964×0.690—×0.94210.84%
HBP% /PA1.51%—×0.940—×0.9421.33%
Singles /BIP20.35%÷1.046×0.930×1.038×0.94217.70%
Doubles /BIP11.50%÷1.005×0.830×1.038×0.9429.29%
Triples /BIP0.88%÷1.079×0.970×1.038×0.9420.78%
Home runs /BIP7.08%÷0.989×0.700—×0.9424.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .393 → .298; ISO .238 → .171; BABIP .352 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 15 PAwOBA .514 → .301 (−213)K% 46.7% → 61.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA46.67%÷1.019×1.350——61.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.67%÷0.975×0.710—×0.9404.56%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.810—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷1.019×0.910—×0.94023.99%
Doubles /BIP14.29%÷0.975×0.830—×0.94011.43%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.820—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP28.57%÷1.000×0.830—×0.94022.30%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .514 → .301; ISO .500 → .282; BABIP .600 → .456. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 190 PAwOBA .412 → .312 (−100)K% 24.2% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.21%÷0.968×1.200——30.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.32%÷0.933×0.690—×0.95211.48%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9520.00%
Singles /BIP26.36%÷1.006×0.930×0.950×0.95222.05%
Doubles /BIP10.91%÷0.972×0.830×0.950×0.9528.43%
Triples /BIP0.91%÷0.900×0.970×0.950×0.9520.89%
Home runs /BIP6.36%÷1.059×0.700—×0.9524.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 94, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .412 → .312; ISO .224 → .158; BABIP .400 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 332 PAwOBA .389 → .311 (−78)K% 22.0% → 26.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.99%÷0.985×1.200——26.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.66%÷0.963×0.690—×0.96210.79%
HBP% /PA0.60%—×0.940—×0.9620.54%
Singles /BIP23.50%÷0.958×0.930×0.999×0.96221.92%
Doubles /BIP8.50%÷0.975×0.830×0.999×0.9626.95%
Triples /BIP0.50%÷1.150×0.970×0.999×0.9620.41%
Home runs /BIP6.50%÷1.052×0.700—×0.9624.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .389 → .311; ISO .212 → .152; BABIP .342 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 35 PAwOBA .299 → .233 (−67)K% 17.1% → 21.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.14%÷0.982×1.200——20.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.71%÷1.058×0.690—×0.9723.62%
HBP% /PA5.71%—×0.940—×0.9725.22%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.087×0.930—×0.97216.63%
Doubles /BIP4.00%÷0.964×0.830—×0.9723.35%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.942×0.970—×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP4.00%÷1.013×0.700—×0.9722.69%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .299 → .233; ISO .129 → .090; BABIP .250 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 19 PAwOBA .428 → .353 (−75)K% 15.8% → 20.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.79%÷0.979×1.290——20.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.05%÷1.055×0.710—×1.00314.21%
HBP% /PA5.26%—×0.980—×1.0035.17%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷0.995×0.900—×1.00324.75%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.045×0.810—×1.0030.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.930×0.810—×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP9.09%÷0.977×0.780—×1.0037.28%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 86, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .428 → .353; ISO .214 → .177; BABIP .300 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAATacoma Rainiers · 94 PAwOBA .411 → .379 (−32)K% 12.8% → 16.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.77%÷1.031×1.290——15.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.57%÷1.103×0.710—×1.0186.27%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP23.94%÷1.006×0.900×1.035×1.01822.57%
Doubles /BIP11.27%÷0.885×0.810×1.035×1.01810.87%
Triples /BIP4.23%÷0.900×0.810×1.035×1.0184.01%
Home runs /BIP1.41%÷0.918×0.780—×1.0181.22%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 77, 3B 80, K 106, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .411 → .379; ISO .205 → .198; BABIP .394 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).