Chris Coghlan

PosLF

B/TL/R

Born1985-06-18

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2016	31	AAA/AA2 orgs	38	.485/.553/.697	0	0	196	—	.404/.447/.579
2016	31	MLBCHC	300	.188/.291/.318	6	2	70	-1.0
2017	32	AAATOR	28	.217/.357/.304	0	0	51	—	.200/.286/.280
2017	32	MLBTOR	88	.200/.302/.267	1	0	65	-0.7
2018	33	AAA/ROK2 orgs	242	.250/.353/.404	5	2	49	—	.182/.253/.291
2019	34	No MLB games played
2020	35	No MLB games played
2021	36	No MLB games played
2022	37	No MLB games played
2023	38	No MLB games played
2024	39	No MLB games played
2025	40	No MLB games played
2026	41	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.7

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015-2017

xwOBA47

Avg EV32

Speed23

Barrel%21

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2007	22	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	148	130	26	5	3	2	15	19	0	5	1	200	283	331	614	131	214	13	10	273	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	360	305	99	26	4	10	47	43	5	19	4	325	423	534	957	210	349	12	13	418	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA	Carolina Mudcats	—	565	483	144	32	5	7	67	65	12	34	10	298	397	429	825	130	333	12	12	371	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB	Florida Marlins	—	565	504	162	31	6	9	53	77	4	8	5	321	390	460	851	139	365	14	9	377	140	+27	-0	-12	-7	+12	2.0
2009	24	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	110	96	33	9	1	3	12	10	1	9	1	344	422	552	974	208	357	9	11	424	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB	Florida Marlins	—	400	358	96	20	3	5	33	84	4	10	3	268	337	383	719	115	336	21	8	321	109	+4	+1	-6	-4	+9	0.4
2011	26	MLB	Florida Marlins	—	298	269	62	20	1	5	22	49	4	7	6	230	298	368	666	138	263	16	7	297	91	-3	-1	-4	+2	+6	-0.1
2011	26	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	68	53	13	4	0	1	8	5	3	3	1	245	375	377	752	132	240	7	12	327	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	23	19	4	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	211	348	263	611	53	222	4	17	295	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	41	35	12	1	0	0	5	5	0	1	1	343	425	371	796	29	387	12	12	359	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	105	93	13	1	0	1	9	12	0	0	2	140	216	183	398	43	146	11	9	187	10	-11	-1	-4	-6	+2	-2.0
2012	27	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	368	317	90	21	3	7	46	44	2	10	2	284	378	435	813	151	309	12	12	362	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	104	89	19	5	2	4	10	26	1	1	0	213	300	449	749	236	246	25	10	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	214	195	50	10	3	1	17	43	1	2	0	256	319	354	673	97	322	20	8	303	96	-1	+0	-4	+1	+5	0.1
2013	28	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	28	27	5	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	185	214	259	474	74	238	21	4	212	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	432	385	109	28	5	9	39	81	3	7	4	283	354	452	806	169	337	19	9	354	121	+11	-0	-6	-6	+9	0.8
2014	29	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	88	70	17	5	0	0	13	18	3	6	1	243	384	314	698	71	321	20	15	324	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	503	440	110	25	6	16	58	94	3	11	2	250	341	443	784	193	284	19	12	347	114	+8	+1	+3	-5	+11	1.9
2016	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	300	261	49	12	2	6	35	73	3	2	1	188	291	318	609	130	235	24	12	280	70	-11	+0	-2	-4	+6	-1.0
2016	31	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	17	17	8	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	471	471	647	1.118	176	533	12	0	493	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	21	16	8	4	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	500	619	750	1.369	250	533	5	24	583	230	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	88	75	15	2	0	1	9	22	2	0	0	200	302	267	569	67	264	25	10	264	65	-4	+0	-5	+0	+2	-0.7
2017	32	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	28	23	5	2	0	0	5	3	0	0	2	217	357	304	661	87	250	11	18	313	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	206	179	42	11	1	4	22	34	4	1	1	235	332	374	706	140	270	17	11	320	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	ROK	AZL Cubs 1	—	36	29	10	2	1	1	7	5	0	1	0	345	472	586	1.058	241	391	14	19	460	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2905	2580	666	149	26	53	275	535	24	47	23	258	335	398	733	140	306	18	9	327	107	+25	+0	-40	-29	+63	2.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2007	22	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	148	134	23	5	2	2	11	27	0	5	1	172	234	284	518	112	188	18	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	360	324	88	21	4	8	28	58	5	19	4	272	339	435	774	164	302	16	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	565	504	140	31	5	6	46	79	12	34	10	278	352	395	747	117	315	14	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	565	506	162	31	6	9	51	77	4	8	5	320	387	458	845	138	365	14	9	375	140	+27	-0	-12	-7	+12	2.0
2009	24	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	110	99	31	8	1	2	9	13	1	9	1	313	376	475	851	162	340	12	8	377	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	400	359	99	22	3	5	32	84	4	10	3	276	342	396	737	120	336	21	8	330	109	+4	+1	-6	-4	+9	0.4
2011	26	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	298	272	65	22	1	5	19	49	4	7	6	239	298	382	681	143	263	16	6	302	91	-3	-1	-4	+2	+6	-0.1
2011	26	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	68	55	14	4	0	1	6	6	3	3	1	255	359	382	741	127	228	9	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	23	20	4	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	200	304	250	554	50	206	4	13	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	41	36	11	1	0	0	4	7	0	1	1	306	375	333	708	28	358	17	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	105	94	13	1	0	1	8	12	0	0	2	138	206	181	387	43	146	11	8	184	10	-11	-1	-4	-6	+2	-2.0
2012	27	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	368	331	84	20	2	6	32	56	2	10	2	254	323	381	704	127	285	15	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	214	196	52	11	3	1	16	43	1	2	0	265	324	367	691	102	322	20	7	310	96	-1	+0	-4	+1	+5	0.1
2013	28	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	28	27	4	0	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	148	179	222	401	74	202	29	4	157	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	432	387	107	27	4	9	37	81	3	7	4	276	344	437	781	160	337	19	9	347	121	+11	-0	-6	-6	+9	0.8
2014	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	88	76	15	4	0	0	7	23	3	6	1	197	291	250	541	53	262	26	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	503	446	109	24	5	17	52	94	3	11	2	244	327	435	762	191	284	19	10	337	114	+8	+1	+3	-5	+11	1.9
2016	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	300	264	49	12	2	6	32	73	3	2	1	186	281	314	595	129	235	24	11	271	70	-11	+0	-2	-4	+6	-1.0
2016	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	17	17	6	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	353	353	471	824	118	455	12	0	394	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	21	18	8	4	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	444	524	667	1.190	222	476	5	14	508	230	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	88	75	15	2	0	1	9	22	2	0	0	200	302	267	569	67	264	25	10	264	65	-4	+0	-5	+0	+2	-0.7
2017	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	28	25	5	2	0	0	3	4	0	0	2	200	286	280	566	80	214	14	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	206	188	32	7	1	3	13	44	4	1	1	170	239	266	505	96	204	21	6	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	—	36	32	8	1	1	1	4	7	0	1	0	250	333	438	771	188	286	19	11	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	508	457	111	26	6	10	40	85	5	24	5	243	311	392	702	149	274	17	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	508	435	125	31	7	12	62	62	5	24	5	287	382	474	856	186	308	12	12	376	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	565	504	140	31	5	6	46	79	12	34	10	278	352	395	747	117	319	14	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA RAW	Carolina Mudcats	—	565	483	144	32	5	7	67	65	12	34	10	298	397	429	825	130	333	12	12	371	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	675	605	193	39	7	11	60	90	5	17	6	319	385	461	846	142	360	13	9	375	140	+32	+1	-12	-7	+15	2.9
2009	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	675	600	195	40	7	12	65	87	5	17	6	325	396	475	871	150	364	13	10	385	140	+32	+1	-12	-7	+15	2.9
2010	25	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	400	359	99	22	3	5	32	84	4	10	3	276	342	396	737	120	346	21	8	330	109	+4	+1	-6	-4	+9	0.4
2010	25	MLB RAW	Florida Marlins	—	400	358	96	20	3	5	33	84	4	10	3	268	337	383	719	115	336	21	8	321	109	+4	+1	-6	-4	+9	0.4
2011	26	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	430	384	93	28	1	6	31	64	7	11	8	242	310	367	678	125	272	15	7	303	91	-5	-1	-4	+2	+9	0.1
2011	26	MLB RAW	4 teams	—	430	376	91	26	1	6	39	60	7	11	8	242	325	364	689	122	269	14	9	308	91	-5	-1	-4	+2	+9	0.1
2012	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	577	515	120	26	3	9	49	83	3	11	4	233	303	348	651	115	258	14	8	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	577	499	122	27	5	12	65	82	3	11	4	244	335	391	726	146	267	14	11	322	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	242	223	56	11	4	1	17	51	1	2	0	251	307	350	657	99	320	21	7	293	84	-5	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.2
2013	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	242	222	55	10	4	1	18	49	1	2	0	248	307	342	649	95	312	20	7	293	84	-5	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.2
2014	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	520	463	122	31	4	9	44	104	6	13	5	263	335	406	741	143	320	20	8	329	109	+6	+1	-6	-6	+11	0.6
2014	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	520	455	126	33	5	9	52	99	6	13	5	277	359	431	789	154	334	19	10	349	109	+6	+1	-6	-6	+11	0.6
2015	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	503	446	109	24	5	17	52	94	3	11	2	244	327	435	762	191	274	19	10	337	114	+8	+1	+3	-5	+11	1.9
2015	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	503	440	110	25	6	16	58	94	3	11	2	250	341	443	784	193	284	19	12	347	114	+8	+1	+3	-5	+11	1.9
2016	31	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	338	299	63	18	2	6	35	77	3	2	1	211	300	344	644	134	263	23	10	292	84	-6	+0	-2	-4	+7	-0.5
2016	31	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	338	294	65	19	2	6	40	76	3	2	1	221	320	361	681	139	277	22	12	310	84	-6	+0	-2	-4	+7	-0.5
2017	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	116	100	20	4	0	1	12	26	2	0	2	200	298	270	568	70	257	22	10	259	61	-5	-1	-5	+0	+3	-0.9
2017	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	116	98	20	4	0	1	14	25	2	0	2	204	316	276	591	71	260	22	12	276	61	-5	-1	-5	+0	+3	-0.9
2018	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	242	220	39	9	1	4	17	51	4	2	1	177	249	282	531	105	212	21	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	242	208	52	13	2	5	29	39	4	2	1	250	353	404	757	154	287	16	12	341	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	508	458	111	26	6	10	40	85	5	24	5	242	311	391	702	148	269	17	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	565	502	140	31	5	6	46	79	12	34	10	279	352	396	749	118	315	14	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	675	605	193	39	7	11	60	90	5	17	6	319	385	461	846	142	361	13	9	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	400	361	99	22	3	5	32	84	4	10	3	274	342	393	735	119	336	21	8	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	430	389	93	28	1	6	31	64	7	11	8	239	310	362	673	123	263	15	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	577	520	120	26	3	9	49	83	3	11	4	231	303	344	648	113	254	14	8	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	242	222	56	11	4	1	17	51	1	2	0	252	307	351	658	99	308	21	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	520	465	122	31	4	9	44	104	6	13	5	262	335	404	740	142	324	20	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	503	443	109	24	5	17	52	94	3	11	2	246	327	438	765	192	284	19	10	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	338	297	63	18	2	6	35	77	3	2	1	212	300	347	647	135	261	23	10	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	116	101	20	4	0	1	12	26	2	0	2	198	298	267	566	69	252	22	10	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	242	219	39	9	1	4	17	51	4	2	1	178	249	283	532	105	216	21	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2905	2580	666	149	26	53	275	535	24	47	23	258	335	398	733	140	306	18	9	327	100	+25	+0	-40	-29	+63	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	149	33	6	12	62	120	5	11	5	258	335	399	734	140	306	18	10	327	100	+6	+0	-9	-7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5116	4575	1165	269	41	85	435	888	55	137	47	255	327	387	714	132	297	17	9	316	100	+25	+0	-40	-29	+63	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	148	34	5	11	55	113	7	17	6	255	327	387	714	133	297	17	8	316	100	+6	+0	-9	-7	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAAIowa Cubs · 206 PAwOBA .312 → .227 (−85)K% 16.5% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.50%	÷0.993	×1.290	—	—	21.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.68%	÷1.116	×0.710	—	×0.942	6.40%
HBP% /PA	1.94%	—	×0.980	—	×0.942	1.79%
Singles /BIP	17.93%	÷1.033	×0.900	×0.970	×0.942	14.26%
Doubles /BIP	7.59%	÷1.091	×0.810	×0.970	×0.942	5.14%
Triples /BIP	0.69%	÷1.024	×0.810	×0.970	×0.942	0.50%
Home runs /BIP	2.76%	÷0.919	×0.780	—	×0.942	2.21%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 118, 3B 105, K 99, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .312 → .227; ISO .140 → .103; BABIP .270 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Cubs 1 · 36 PAwOBA .449 → .315 (−134)K% 13.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.89%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.44%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	11.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	19.27%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	5.64%
Triples /BIP	4.17%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	2.82%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	3.06%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (13.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .449 → .315; ISO .241 → .174; BABIP .391 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAABuffalo Bisons · 28 PAwOBA .306 → .243 (−63)K% 10.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.71%	÷0.950	×1.200	—	—	13.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.86%	÷1.027	×0.690	—	×0.952	11.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.00%	÷1.021	×0.930	—	×0.952	13.01%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.940	×0.830	—	×0.952	8.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.903	×0.840	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 92, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .306 → .243; ISO .087 → .077; BABIP .250 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AATennessee Smokies · 21 PAwOBA .569 → .508 (−61)K% 4.8% → 5.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	4.76%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	5.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.81%	÷0.982	×0.680	—	×0.940	15.50%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.013	×0.920	—	×0.940	22.76%
Doubles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.918	×0.910	—	×0.940	24.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .569 → .508; ISO .250 → .256; BABIP .533 → .476. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 17 PAwOBA .479 → .394 (−84)K% 11.8% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷1.037	×1.290	—	—	14.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.034	×0.710	—	×0.962	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.006	×0.900	—	×0.962	28.68%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.927	×0.810	—	×0.962	16.80%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.945	×0.810	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.890	×0.780	—	×0.962	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 89, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .479 → .394; ISO .176 → .143; BABIP .533 → .455. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 88 PAwOBA .321 → .244 (−77)K% 20.5% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.45%	÷0.996	×1.290	—	—	26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.77%	÷1.249	×0.710	—	×0.982	8.24%
HBP% /PA	3.41%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	3.28%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.021	×0.900	×0.993	×0.982	19.84%
Doubles /BIP	9.62%	÷1.111	×0.810	×0.993	×0.982	6.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.993	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.929	×0.780	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .321 → .244; ISO .071 → .053; BABIP .321 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 28 PAwOBA .206 → .157 (−49)K% 21.4% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷1.019	×1.420	—	—	29.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.57%	÷0.970	×0.750	—	×0.948	2.62%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷1.029	×0.920	—	×0.948	16.14%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.073	×0.960	—	×0.948	0.00%
Triples /BIP	4.76%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.948	4.06%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.942	×0.880	—	×0.948	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .206 → .157; ISO .074 → .057; BABIP .238 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 368 PAwOBA .355 → .311 (−44)K% 12.0% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.96%	÷1.013	×1.290	—	—	15.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.23%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.003	8.74%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.53%
Singles /BIP	21.61%	÷0.976	×0.900	×1.009	×1.003	20.16%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.868	×0.810	×1.009	×1.003	7.26%
Triples /BIP	1.10%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.009	×1.003	0.78%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.942	×0.780	—	×1.003	2.13%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .355 → .311; ISO .151 → .133; BABIP .309 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).