Preston Tucker
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 29 | AAACWS | 93 | .277/.348/.410 | 1 | 0 | 67 | — | .233/.283/.349 |
| 2022 | 32 | AAAATL | 311 | .267/.353/.426 | 9 | 1 | 74 | — | .224/.288/.338 |
| 2023 | 33 | AAASD | 240 | .293/.435/.565 | 11 | 1 | 113 | — | .238/.343/.422 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 268 | 237 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 347 | 456 | 803 | 194 | 287 | 17 | 10 | 357 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 333 | 298 | 97 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 326 | 389 | 544 | 933 | 218 | 339 | 14 | 9 | 404 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 309 | 275 | 79 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 74 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 287 | 359 | 429 | 789 | 142 | 365 | 24 | 10 | 350 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 290 | 261 | 72 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 26 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 276 | 348 | 536 | 885 | 261 | 278 | 16 | 9 | 386 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 323 | 300 | 73 | 19 | 0 | 13 | 20 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 243 | 297 | 437 | 734 | 193 | 274 | 21 | 6 | 324 | 104 | +2 | -1 | -7 | -5 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 143 | 129 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 12 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 359 | 581 | 941 | 287 | 287 | 17 | 8 | 405 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 144 | 134 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 222 | 328 | 551 | 164 | 200 | 28 | 6 | 246 | 51 | -8 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +3 | -1.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 229 | 209 | 63 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 301 | 354 | 512 | 866 | 211 | 355 | 21 | 7 | 375 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 24 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 174 | 95 | 269 | 154 | 38 | 8 | 134 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 569 | 492 | 123 | 20 | 7 | 24 | 65 | 102 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 250 | 338 | 465 | 804 | 215 | 263 | 18 | 11 | 348 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | — | 184 | 166 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 301 | 404 | 704 | 175 | 271 | 23 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -0 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 71 | 69 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 268 | 333 | 601 | 87 | 274 | 10 | 3 | 268 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 93 | 83 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 277 | 348 | 410 | 757 | 133 | 289 | 8 | 10 | 337 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 311 | 270 | 72 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 426 | 779 | 159 | 290 | 16 | 10 | 345 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 240 | 191 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 293 | 435 | 565 | 1.001 | 272 | 326 | 18 | 18 | 435 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 651 | 600 | 133 | 38 | 1 | 23 | 41 | 151 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 222 | 282 | 403 | 685 | 182 | 258 | 23 | 6 | 304 | 92 | -6 | -1 | -13 | -12 | +14 | -1.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 268 | 247 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 56 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 276 | 352 | 628 | 138 | 251 | 21 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 333 | 308 | 79 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 65 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 256 | 304 | 422 | 726 | 166 | 276 | 20 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 309 | 285 | 69 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 96 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 242 | 294 | 351 | 645 | 109 | 339 | 31 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 290 | 272 | 64 | 16 | 0 | 14 | 15 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 235 | 283 | 449 | 731 | 213 | 246 | 20 | 5 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 323 | 300 | 72 | 18 | 0 | 13 | 20 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 240 | 294 | 430 | 724 | 190 | 274 | 21 | 6 | 322 | 104 | +2 | -1 | -7 | -5 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 143 | 133 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 289 | 444 | 732 | 203 | 258 | 22 | 6 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 144 | 134 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 222 | 328 | 551 | 164 | 200 | 28 | 6 | 243 | 51 | -8 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +3 | -1.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 229 | 214 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 238 | 279 | 388 | 667 | 150 | 299 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 24 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 130 | 91 | 221 | 145 | 42 | 4 | 117 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 569 | 514 | 107 | 17 | 5 | 20 | 44 | 133 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 208 | 272 | 377 | 649 | 169 | 227 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB MLE | Atlanta Braves | — | 184 | 166 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 301 | 404 | 704 | 175 | 271 | 23 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -0 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 71 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 211 | 271 | 483 | 71 | 238 | 13 | 1 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 93 | 86 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 283 | 349 | 631 | 116 | 240 | 10 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 311 | 281 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 59 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 288 | 338 | 626 | 114 | 250 | 19 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 240 | 206 | 49 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 343 | 422 | 765 | 184 | 281 | 22 | 12 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 555 | 132 | 24 | 2 | 19 | 36 | 121 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 291 | 391 | 682 | 153 | 270 | 20 | 6 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 601 | 535 | 159 | 32 | 2 | 25 | 56 | 91 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 297 | 370 | 505 | 875 | 207 | 317 | 15 | 9 | 383 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 599 | 557 | 134 | 32 | 0 | 20 | 36 | 153 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 241 | 290 | 406 | 696 | 165 | 295 | 26 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 599 | 536 | 151 | 35 | 0 | 24 | 57 | 120 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 282 | 354 | 481 | 835 | 200 | 322 | 20 | 10 | 367 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 433 | 105 | 21 | 0 | 22 | 28 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 242 | 295 | 443 | 738 | 201 | 266 | 21 | 6 | 322 | 104 | +2 | -1 | -7 | -5 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 466 | 429 | 111 | 23 | 0 | 24 | 32 | 93 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 259 | 316 | 480 | 796 | 221 | 278 | 20 | 7 | 349 | 104 | +2 | -1 | -7 | -5 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 397 | 369 | 75 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 114 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 252 | 350 | 602 | 146 | 261 | 29 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 397 | 364 | 87 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 98 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 239 | 295 | 420 | 715 | 181 | 291 | 25 | 6 | 313 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 569 | 514 | 107 | 17 | 5 | 20 | 44 | 133 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 208 | 272 | 377 | 649 | 169 | 235 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 569 | 492 | 123 | 20 | 7 | 24 | 65 | 102 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 250 | 338 | 465 | 804 | 215 | 263 | 18 | 11 | 348 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 236 | 52 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 276 | 364 | 640 | 144 | 257 | 20 | 5 | 287 | 80 | -6 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 255 | 235 | 55 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 291 | 383 | 674 | 149 | 272 | 20 | 6 | 301 | 80 | -6 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 93 | 86 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 283 | 349 | 631 | 116 | 247 | 10 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 93 | 83 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 277 | 348 | 410 | 757 | 133 | 289 | 8 | 10 | 337 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 311 | 281 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 59 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 288 | 338 | 626 | 114 | 258 | 19 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 311 | 270 | 72 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 426 | 779 | 159 | 290 | 16 | 10 | 345 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 240 | 206 | 49 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 343 | 422 | 765 | 184 | 284 | 22 | 12 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 240 | 191 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 293 | 435 | 565 | 1.001 | 272 | 326 | 18 | 18 | 435 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 554 | 132 | 24 | 2 | 19 | 36 | 121 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 291 | 392 | 683 | 153 | 265 | 20 | 6 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 599 | 555 | 134 | 32 | 0 | 20 | 36 | 153 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 241 | 290 | 407 | 697 | 166 | 294 | 26 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 431 | 105 | 21 | 0 | 22 | 28 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 244 | 295 | 445 | 740 | 202 | 269 | 21 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 397 | 370 | 75 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 114 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 252 | 349 | 601 | 146 | 254 | 29 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 569 | 519 | 107 | 17 | 5 | 20 | 44 | 133 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 206 | 272 | 374 | 646 | 168 | 227 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 235 | 52 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 276 | 366 | 642 | 145 | 262 | 20 | 5 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 93 | 87 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 230 | 283 | 345 | 627 | 115 | 240 | 10 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 311 | 283 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 59 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 288 | 336 | 623 | 113 | 250 | 19 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 240 | 205 | 49 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 239 | 343 | 424 | 767 | 185 | 281 | 22 | 12 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 651 | 600 | 133 | 38 | 1 | 23 | 41 | 151 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 222 | 282 | 403 | 685 | 182 | 258 | 23 | 6 | 304 | 85 | -6 | -1 | -13 | -12 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 133 | 38 | 1 | 23 | 41 | 151 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 222 | 282 | 404 | 686 | 182 | 258 | 23 | 6 | 304 | 85 | -6 | -1 | -13 | -12 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3531 | 3237 | 737 | 158 | 14 | 111 | 231 | 793 | 33 | 13 | 11 | 228 | 286 | 388 | 674 | 160 | 265 | 22 | 7 | 294 | 85 | -6 | -1 | -13 | -12 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 136 | 29 | 3 | 20 | 43 | 146 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 228 | 287 | 388 | 675 | 159 | 266 | 22 | 7 | 294 | 85 | -6 | -1 | -13 | -12 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 240 PAwOBA .425 → .335 (−89)K% 17.9% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.92% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.50% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.942 | 11.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.942 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷0.958 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×0.942 | 18.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.78% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×0.942 | 7.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×0.942 | 1.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.43% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.942 | 4.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .425 → .335; ISO .272 → .198; BABIP .326 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 311 PAwOBA .340 → .277 (−63)K% 15.8% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.76% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.32% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.27% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×0.952 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷0.966 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×0.952 | 6.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.07% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.952 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .340 → .277; ISO .159 → .121; BABIP .290 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 93 PAwOBA .331 → .267 (−65)K% 7.5% → 9.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.53% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 9.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.077 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.42% | ÷1.061 | ×0.930 | ×0.957 | ×0.982 | 15.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.921 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×0.982 | 8.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.212 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .331 → .267; ISO .133 → .110; BABIP .289 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALouisville Bats · 71 PAwOBA .260 → .218 (−42)K% 9.9% → 12.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.86% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 12.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.82% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 1.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 17.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 1.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .260 → .218; ISO .087 → .072; BABIP .274 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 569 PAwOBA .344 → .280 (−64)K% 17.9% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.93% | ÷0.992 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.07% | ÷1.028 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 7.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.18% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.46% | ÷0.978 | ×0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | 16.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.926 | ×0.810 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 5.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .344 → .280; ISO .215 → .174; BABIP .263 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 229 PAwOBA .368 → .288 (−79)K% 21.4% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.40% | ÷0.996 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.11% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 21.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.75% | ÷1.061 | ×0.810 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 6.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 3.82% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .368 → .288; ISO .211 → .153; BABIP .355 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 24 PAwOBA .137 → .117 (−19)K% 37.5% → 43.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.055 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.932 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 15.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.196 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 111, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .137 → .117; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .154 → .145. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 143 PAwOBA .394 → .323 (−71)K% 17.5% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.48% | ÷1.020 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.987 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.12% | ÷0.972 | ×0.900 | ×0.989 | ×1.033 | 20.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.051 | ×0.810 | ×0.989 | ×1.033 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.810 | ×0.989 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.58% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 8.04% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 94, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .394 → .323; ISO .287 → .215; BABIP .287 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).