John Mayberry Jr.

PosCF

B/TR/R

Born1983-12-21

Age (2027)43

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2015

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2013	29	MLBPHI	384	.227/.287/.391	11	5	87	-1.1
2014	30	AAAPHI	38	.182/.289/.333	1	0	41	—	.176/.263/.324
2014	30	MLBTOR	168	.212/.311/.425	7	0	107	-0.0
2015	31	AAACWS	40	.162/.225/.189	0	0	-12	—	.154/.175/.179
2015	31	MLBNYM	119	.164/.227/.318	3	1	56	-0.6
2016	32	No MLB games played
2017	33	No MLB games played
2018	34	No MLB games played
2019	35	No MLB games played
2020	36	No MLB games played
2021	37	No MLB games played
2022	38	No MLB games played
2023	39	No MLB games played
2024	40	No MLB games played
2025	41	No MLB games played
2026	42	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.7

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Power37Speed50Eye60

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	22	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	536	459	123	26	4	21	59	117	9	9	3	268	360	479	840	211	312	22	11	367	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	271	245	59	10	0	14	20	62	4	7	1	241	309	453	762	212	265	23	7	334	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+	Bakersfield Blaze	—	277	244	56	15	1	16	28	64	3	9	1	230	316	496	812	266	241	23	10	352	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AAA	Oklahoma RedHawks	—	475	437	115	30	7	16	30	85	5	6	2	263	318	474	791	211	293	18	6	345	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	90	82	22	8	0	4	4	21	3	4	1	268	326	512	838	244	310	23	4	363	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	60	57	12	3	0	4	2	23	1	0	0	211	250	474	724	263	267	38	3	314	99	-0	+0	-3	-4	+1	-0.7
2009	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	358	316	81	20	2	13	34	94	4	6	2	256	336	456	792	199	319	26	9	347	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	547	495	132	25	1	15	39	111	8	20	3	267	330	412	742	145	314	20	7	330	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	296	267	73	17	1	15	26	55	2	8	3	273	342	513	855	240	293	19	9	373	132	+11	+0	-0	+1	+6	2.0
2011	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	122	113	30	8	0	4	5	23	0	2	0	265	297	442	739	177	289	19	4	315	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	479	441	108	24	0	14	34	111	2	1	0	245	302	395	696	150	296	23	7	310	92	-5	+0	-3	+2	+10	0.4
2013	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	384	353	80	23	1	11	27	90	3	5	3	227	287	391	678	164	273	23	7	302	87	-6	-0	-9	-4	+8	-1.1
2014	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	168	146	31	10	0	7	20	35	1	0	0	212	311	425	736	212	229	21	12	326	107	+1	+0	-2	-4	+4	-0.0
2014	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	38	33	6	2	0	1	3	11	2	0	0	182	289	333	623	152	238	29	8	288	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	119	110	18	6	1	3	9	33	0	1	0	164	227	318	545	155	203	28	8	244	56	-6	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.6
2015	31	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	200	18	8	198	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1506	1374	322	83	3	54	118	347	9	15	6	234	299	417	716	183	274	23	8	317	101	+1	+1	-18	-11	+33	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	22	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	536	482	100	20	3	16	39	159	9	9	3	207	279	361	640	154	262	30	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	271	251	49	8	0	11	14	76	4	7	1	195	249	359	608	163	226	28	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	—	277	254	46	11	1	14	18	86	3	9	1	181	244	398	641	217	199	31	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AAA MLE	Oklahoma RedHawks	—	475	447	93	23	5	12	20	110	5	6	2	208	250	362	612	154	247	23	4	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	90	83	18	6	0	3	3	26	3	4	1	217	270	398	667	181	268	29	3	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	60	57	12	3	0	4	2	23	1	0	0	211	250	474	724	263	267	38	3	314	99	-0	+0	-3	-4	+1	-0.7
2009	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	358	326	70	16	2	11	24	113	4	6	2	215	277	377	654	163	280	32	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	547	510	121	21	1	14	24	131	8	20	3	237	282	365	647	127	285	24	4	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	296	269	72	17	1	14	24	55	2	8	3	268	332	494	827	227	293	19	8	363	132	+11	+0	-0	+1	+6	2.0
2011	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	122	115	26	7	0	3	3	28	0	2	0	226	246	365	611	139	250	23	2	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	479	443	108	25	0	13	32	111	2	1	0	244	298	388	686	144	296	23	7	304	92	-5	+0	-3	+2	+10	0.4
2013	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	384	354	80	24	1	10	26	90	3	5	3	226	285	384	669	158	273	23	7	297	87	-6	-0	-9	-4	+8	-1.1
2014	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	168	146	31	10	0	7	20	35	1	0	0	212	311	425	736	212	229	21	12	326	107	+1	+0	-2	-4	+4	-0.0
2014	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	38	34	6	2	0	1	2	13	2	0	0	176	263	324	587	147	202	34	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	119	110	18	6	1	3	9	33	0	1	0	164	227	318	545	155	203	28	8	251	56	-6	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.6
2015	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	40	39	6	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	154	175	179	354	26	178	22	2	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	536	482	100	20	3	16	39	159	9	9	3	207	279	361	640	154	268	30	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	—	536	459	123	26	4	21	59	117	9	9	3	268	360	479	840	211	312	22	11	367	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	548	505	95	19	1	25	32	161	7	16	2	188	246	378	625	190	217	29	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	548	489	115	25	1	30	48	126	7	16	2	235	312	474	787	239	253	23	9	343	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	565	530	112	29	5	16	23	135	8	10	3	211	255	375	630	164	251	24	4	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	565	519	137	38	7	20	34	106	8	10	3	264	319	480	799	216	295	19	6	348	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	383	82	19	2	15	26	136	5	6	2	214	273	392	665	178	284	33	6	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	418	373	93	23	2	17	36	117	5	6	2	249	324	458	782	209	313	28	9	342	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	547	510	121	21	1	14	24	131	8	20	3	237	282	365	647	127	290	24	4	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	547	495	132	25	1	15	39	111	8	20	3	267	330	412	742	145	314	20	7	330	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	418	384	98	24	1	17	27	83	2	10	3	255	308	456	763	201	280	20	6	336	113	+7	+1	-0	+1	+9	1.8
2011	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	418	380	103	25	1	19	31	78	2	10	3	271	329	492	821	221	292	19	7	356	113	+7	+1	-0	+1	+9	1.8
2012	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	479	443	108	25	0	13	32	111	2	1	0	244	298	388	686	144	296	23	7	304	92	-5	+0	-3	+2	+10	0.4
2012	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	479	441	108	24	0	14	34	111	2	1	0	245	302	395	696	150	296	23	7	310	92	-5	+0	-3	+2	+10	0.4
2013	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	384	354	80	24	1	10	26	90	3	5	3	226	285	384	669	158	275	23	7	297	87	-6	-0	-9	-4	+8	-1.1
2013	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	384	353	80	23	1	11	27	90	3	5	3	227	287	391	678	164	273	23	7	302	87	-6	-0	-9	-4	+8	-1.1
2014	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	206	180	37	12	0	8	22	48	3	0	0	206	302	406	708	200	232	23	11	308	95	-1	+0	-2	-4	+4	-0.2
2014	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	206	179	37	12	0	8	23	46	3	0	0	207	307	408	715	201	230	22	11	319	95	-1	+0	-2	-4	+4	-0.2
2015	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	159	149	24	7	1	3	10	42	0	1	0	161	214	282	496	121	202	26	6	225	39	-12	+0	-0	-2	+3	-1.0
2015	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	159	147	24	7	1	3	12	40	0	1	0	163	226	286	512	122	202	25	8	233	39	-12	+0	-0	-2	+3	-1.0
2006	22	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	536	483	100	20	3	16	39	159	9	9	3	207	279	360	639	153	262	30	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	548	504	95	19	1	25	32	161	7	16	2	188	246	379	625	190	212	29	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	565	529	112	29	5	16	23	135	8	10	3	212	255	376	631	164	250	24	4	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	384	82	19	2	15	26	136	5	6	2	214	273	391	664	177	278	33	6	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	547	510	121	21	1	14	24	131	8	20	3	237	282	365	647	127	285	24	4	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	418	386	98	24	1	17	27	83	2	10	3	254	308	453	761	199	280	20	6	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	479	442	108	25	0	13	32	111	2	1	0	244	298	389	687	145	296	23	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	384	352	80	24	1	10	26	90	3	5	3	227	285	386	671	159	273	23	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	206	179	37	12	0	8	22	48	3	0	0	207	302	408	710	201	224	23	11	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	159	148	24	7	1	3	10	42	0	1	0	162	214	284	498	122	196	26	6	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1506	1374	322	83	3	54	118	347	9	15	6	234	299	417	716	183	274	23	8	317	80	+1	+1	-18	-11	+33	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	139	36	1	23	51	150	4	6	3	234	299	415	714	180	275	23	8	317	80	+1	+0	-8	-5	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4260	3920	857	200	15	137	261	1096	47	78	19	219	276	382	658	164	265	26	6	287	80	+1	+1	-18	-11	+33	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	131	31	2	21	40	167	7	12	3	219	276	383	658	164	266	26	6	287	80	+1	+0	-8	-5	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAACharlotte Knights · 40 PAwOBA .180 → .151 (−29)K% 17.5% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.50%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.00%	÷1.017	×0.690	—	×0.952	3.23%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.973	×0.930	—	×0.952	15.17%
Doubles /BIP	3.33%	÷0.993	×0.830	—	×0.952	2.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.306	×0.840	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 161, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .180 → .151; ISO .027 → .022; BABIP .200 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 38 PAwOBA .280 → .229 (−51)K% 28.9% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.95%	÷1.050	×1.200	—	—	33.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷0.970	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.40%
HBP% /PA	5.26%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	4.76%
Singles /BIP	13.64%	÷1.006	×0.930	—	×0.962	12.13%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.999	×0.830	—	×0.962	7.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.136	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.922	×0.840	—	×0.962	3.98%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 127, K 110, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .280 → .229; ISO .152 → .126; BABIP .238 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 122 PAwOBA .316 → .271 (−45)K% 18.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.85%	÷1.003	×1.200	—	—	22.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.10%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×0.992	2.83%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.081	×0.930	×1.020	×0.992	17.41%
Doubles /BIP	8.89%	÷0.967	×0.830	×1.020	×0.992	7.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.020	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.44%	÷0.973	×0.840	—	×0.992	3.81%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 116, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .316 → .271; ISO .177 → .154; BABIP .289 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 547 PAwOBA .321 → .281 (−39)K% 20.3% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.29%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	23.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.40%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.34%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.38%
Singles /BIP	23.70%	÷0.990	×0.930	×0.986	×1.003	22.02%
Doubles /BIP	6.51%	÷0.977	×0.830	×0.986	×1.003	5.47%
Triples /BIP	0.26%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.986	×1.003	0.28%
Home runs /BIP	3.91%	÷0.923	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.57%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .321 → .281; ISO .145 → .130; BABIP .314 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 358 PAwOBA .342 → .283 (−59)K% 26.3% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.26%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	31.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.50%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.67%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.07%
Singles /BIP	20.72%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.964	×1.018	18.92%
Doubles /BIP	9.01%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.964	×1.018	7.34%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.964	×1.018	0.86%
Home runs /BIP	5.86%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.018	5.01%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .342 → .283; ISO .199 → .166; BABIP .319 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAAOklahoma RedHawks · 475 PAwOBA .335 → .268 (−67)K% 17.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.89%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	23.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.89%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.033	4.32%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.07%
Singles /BIP	17.61%	÷1.000	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	15.56%
Doubles /BIP	8.52%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	6.77%
Triples /BIP	1.99%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	1.58%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.033	3.66%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .335 → .268; ISO .211 → .163; BABIP .293 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 90 PAwOBA .356 → .289 (−67)K% 23.3% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.33%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	28.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.44%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.998	3.10%
HBP% /PA	3.33%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	2.89%
Singles /BIP	16.39%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.991	×0.998	14.91%
Doubles /BIP	13.11%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.991	×0.998	10.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.991	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.56%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	5.24%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .356 → .289; ISO .244 → .191; BABIP .310 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 277 PAwOBA .343 → .272 (−71)K% 23.1% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.10%	÷1.000	×1.340	—	—	30.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.39%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.988	6.58%
HBP% /PA	1.08%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.85%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.967	×0.988	11.60%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.967	×0.988	6.53%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷1.000	×0.760	×0.967	×0.988	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	8.89%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.988	8.08%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .343 → .272; ISO .266 → .221; BABIP .241 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).