J.C. Linares
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 30 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 447 | .301/.402/.499 | 14 | 4 | 112 | — | .263/.336/.421 |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 312 | .236/.340/.360 | 5 | 5 | 94 | — | .141/.191/.188 |
| 2017 | 32 | AAABravos de Leon | 158 | .246/.357/.425 | 6 | 1 | 68 | — | .196/.268/.315 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 48 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 239 | 271 | 391 | 662 | 152 | 312 | 27 | 0 | 294 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 333 | 646 | 67 | 308 | 12 | 6 | 294 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 71 | 68 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 397 | 423 | 662 | 1.084 | 265 | 414 | 10 | 1 | 472 | 205 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 64 | 60 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 281 | 500 | 781 | 267 | 244 | 19 | 6 | 337 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 18 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 111 | 278 | 389 | 167 | 62 | 6 | 0 | 166 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 216 | 202 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 327 | 480 | 807 | 183 | 321 | 17 | 3 | 347 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 238 | 210 | 70 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 407 | 538 | 945 | 205 | 356 | 13 | 9 | 413 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 35 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 257 | 281 | 538 | 94 | 227 | 26 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 51 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 267 | 561 | 67 | 273 | 24 | 10 | 265 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 339 | 301 | 83 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 72 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 353 | 449 | 802 | 173 | 336 | 21 | 8 | 356 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 143 | 124 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 362 | 419 | 781 | 145 | 330 | 22 | 9 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA | Vaqueros de la Laguna | — | 293 | 243 | 79 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 39 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 325 | 433 | 588 | 1.021 | 263 | 346 | 17 | 13 | 439 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 137 | 127 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 289 | 354 | 643 | 110 | 296 | 21 | 6 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Vaqueros de la Laguna | — | 254 | 216 | 73 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 338 | 435 | 569 | 1.004 | 231 | 381 | 16 | 12 | 438 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 193 | 163 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 252 | 358 | 405 | 763 | 153 | 298 | 21 | 13 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Vaqueros de la Laguna | — | 69 | 61 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 180 | 265 | 246 | 511 | 66 | 234 | 22 | 10 | 237 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | INTL | Caneros de los Mochis | — | 243 | 206 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 252 | 361 | 393 | 754 | 141 | 283 | 15 | 10 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA | Bravos de Leon | — | 158 | 134 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 357 | 425 | 782 | 179 | 245 | 11 | 14 | 350 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 48 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 229 | 326 | 555 | 130 | 276 | 33 | 0 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 267 | 517 | 67 | 230 | 19 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 64 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 213 | 250 | 459 | 709 | 246 | 221 | 23 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 216 | 205 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 265 | 366 | 631 | 122 | 278 | 20 | 2 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 238 | 219 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 283 | 335 | 434 | 769 | 151 | 311 | 16 | 5 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 51 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 235 | 213 | 448 | 43 | 241 | 27 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 339 | 309 | 74 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 89 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 303 | 375 | 678 | 136 | 305 | 26 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Vaqueros de la Laguna | — | 293 | 257 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 261 | 343 | 451 | 794 | 191 | 283 | 21 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Vaqueros de la Laguna | — | 254 | 228 | 60 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 50 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 263 | 336 | 421 | 757 | 158 | 310 | 20 | 7 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Vaqueros de la Laguna | — | 69 | 64 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 141 | 191 | 188 | 379 | 47 | 202 | 26 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA MLE | Bravos de Leon | — | 158 | 143 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 268 | 315 | 582 | 119 | 212 | 15 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 135 | 130 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 185 | 215 | 262 | 476 | 77 | 256 | 29 | 1 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 135 | 129 | 42 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 326 | 356 | 527 | 883 | 202 | 369 | 16 | 1 | 387 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 82 | 78 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 232 | 397 | 629 | 205 | 214 | 23 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 82 | 78 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 244 | 449 | 693 | 244 | 197 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 489 | 457 | 121 | 23 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 89 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 265 | 303 | 403 | 706 | 138 | 301 | 18 | 4 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 489 | 444 | 136 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 31 | 75 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 306 | 361 | 493 | 854 | 187 | 332 | 15 | 6 | 372 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 533 | 485 | 111 | 30 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 141 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 293 | 353 | 646 | 124 | 304 | 26 | 5 | 278 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 533 | 470 | 126 | 30 | 2 | 13 | 44 | 116 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 268 | 350 | 423 | 773 | 155 | 328 | 22 | 8 | 345 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 430 | 380 | 97 | 19 | 0 | 17 | 37 | 89 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 255 | 333 | 439 | 772 | 184 | 286 | 21 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 430 | 370 | 110 | 22 | 1 | 18 | 47 | 78 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 297 | 387 | 508 | 895 | 211 | 329 | 18 | 11 | 390 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 403 | 106 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 89 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 263 | 330 | 424 | 754 | 161 | 309 | 20 | 7 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 447 | 379 | 114 | 21 | 6 | 14 | 56 | 80 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 301 | 402 | 499 | 900 | 198 | 346 | 18 | 13 | 396 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 312 | 279 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 154 | 236 | 204 | 441 | 50 | 216 | 27 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 312 | 267 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 52 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 236 | 340 | 360 | 699 | 124 | 272 | 17 | 10 | 318 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA MLE | Bravos de Leon | — | 158 | 143 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 268 | 315 | 582 | 119 | 207 | 15 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA RAW | Bravos de Leon | — | 158 | 134 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 357 | 425 | 782 | 179 | 245 | 11 | 14 | 350 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 135 | 129 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 186 | 215 | 264 | 478 | 78 | 265 | 29 | 1 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 82 | 78 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 232 | 397 | 629 | 205 | 221 | 23 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 489 | 461 | 121 | 23 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 89 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 303 | 399 | 702 | 137 | 295 | 18 | 4 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 533 | 484 | 111 | 30 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 141 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 293 | 353 | 646 | 124 | 297 | 26 | 5 | 278 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 430 | 383 | 97 | 19 | 0 | 17 | 37 | 89 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 253 | 333 | 436 | 769 | 183 | 283 | 21 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 404 | 106 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 89 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 262 | 330 | 423 | 753 | 161 | 310 | 20 | 7 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 312 | 279 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 154 | 236 | 204 | 441 | 50 | 202 | 27 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA MLE | Bravos de Leon | — | 158 | 143 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 268 | 315 | 582 | 119 | 212 | 15 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2586 | 2355 | 545 | 121 | 13 | 56 | 154 | 572 | 52 | 16 | 11 | 231 | 293 | 365 | 658 | 134 | 280 | 22 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -59 | -1 | +0 | -28 | +56 | -3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 136 | 30 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 144 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 230 | 292 | 361 | 654 | 132 | 277 | 22 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -15 | -0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAABravos de Leon · 158 PAwOBA .334 → .269 (−65)K% 11.4% → 14.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.39% | ÷0.942 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.03% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.942 | 8.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.942 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.10% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×0.942 | 16.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×0.942 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×0.942 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.942 | 3.48% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 88, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .334 → .269; ISO .179 → .134; BABIP .245 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAVaqueros de la Laguna · 69 PAwOBA .235 → .185 (−50)K% 21.7% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 6.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.22% | ÷0.963 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×0.952 | 13.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×0.952 | 6.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 93, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .235 → .185; ISO .066 → .052; BABIP .234 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAVaqueros de la Laguna · 254 PAwOBA .428 → .330 (−98)K% 15.7% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.75% | ÷0.955 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.81% | ÷1.084 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.14% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×0.962 | 22.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.39% | ÷1.046 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×0.962 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.080 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×0.962 | 2.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.11% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 3.42% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 116, K 91, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .428 → .330; ISO .231 → .170; BABIP .381 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAVaqueros de la Laguna · 293 PAwOBA .434 → .339 (−95)K% 16.7% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.72% | ÷0.966 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.31% | ÷1.025 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 8.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.39% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.23% | ÷1.055 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×0.972 | 20.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.25% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.972 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.25% | ÷0.976 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 5.75% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 111, 2B 112, 3B 91, K 93, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .434 → .339; ISO .263 → .194; BABIP .346 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 339 PAwOBA .348 → .289 (−59)K% 21.2% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.24% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.67% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.95% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.40% | ÷0.980 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×0.958 | 20.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.48% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×0.958 | 8.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×0.958 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.026 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 2.55% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .348 → .289; ISO .173 → .135; BABIP .336 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 51 PAwOBA .259 → .208 (−51)K% 23.5% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.069 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.964 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 17.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.083 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 6.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.068 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 91, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .259 → .208; ISO .067 → .050; BABIP .273 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 238 PAwOBA .401 → .331 (−70)K% 12.6% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.61% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷1.007 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×0.968 | 22.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.44% | ÷1.095 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×0.968 | 7.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×0.968 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.098 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.06% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .401 → .331; ISO .205 → .151; BABIP .356 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 216 PAwOBA .342 → .278 (−63)K% 16.7% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.78% | ÷0.974 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 1.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.10% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | ×0.961 | ×0.992 | 21.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.63% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×0.992 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×0.992 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.280 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 3.14% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .342 → .278; ISO .183 → .129; BABIP .321 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .