Tyler Neslony
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 28 | AAA/AACWS | 393 | .310/.382/.523 | 13 | 20 | 106 | — | .269/.321/.437 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA/AACWS | 400 | .239/.344/.399 | 13 | 21 | 58 | — | .190/.261/.303 |
| 2024 | 30 | AACWS | 144 | .226/.270/.286 | 0 | 5 | 29 | — | .199/.227/.250 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | — | 164 | 148 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 257 | 317 | 331 | 648 | 74 | 306 | 18 | 6 | 291 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 21 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 500 | 600 | 875 | 1.475 | 375 | 538 | 14 | 5 | 593 | 213 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 168 | 144 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 291 | 243 | 534 | 49 | 229 | 16 | 11 | 250 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 241 | 217 | 67 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 309 | 378 | 442 | 820 | 134 | 371 | 18 | 9 | 368 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 142 | 123 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 317 | 400 | 577 | 977 | 260 | 319 | 15 | 11 | 420 | 170 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 491 | 451 | 110 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 108 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 244 | 300 | 333 | 632 | 89 | 309 | 22 | 7 | 285 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 217 | 192 | 56 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 292 | 370 | 458 | 829 | 167 | 352 | 20 | 10 | 367 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 205 | 176 | 52 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 295 | 392 | 545 | 938 | 250 | 376 | 25 | 13 | 408 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 101 | 94 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 266 | 317 | 372 | 689 | 106 | 338 | 24 | 7 | 311 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 292 | 258 | 84 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 48 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 326 | 404 | 578 | 982 | 252 | 367 | 16 | 11 | 427 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 183 | 160 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 44 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 244 | 335 | 406 | 741 | 163 | 297 | 24 | 11 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 217 | 183 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 52 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 235 | 352 | 393 | 745 | 158 | 288 | 24 | 15 | 338 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 144 | 133 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 226 | 270 | 286 | 555 | 60 | 278 | 19 | 5 | 249 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 164 | 152 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 211 | 255 | 276 | 531 | 66 | 266 | 25 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 21 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 438 | 550 | 750 | 1.300 | 312 | 414 | 19 | 5 | 483 | 213 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 168 | 151 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 185 | 255 | 232 | 486 | 46 | 220 | 20 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 241 | 224 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 263 | 315 | 366 | 681 | 103 | 354 | 26 | 6 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 491 | 464 | 99 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 134 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 213 | 251 | 293 | 544 | 80 | 284 | 27 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 217 | 199 | 47 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 236 | 296 | 377 | 673 | 141 | 297 | 25 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 205 | 187 | 46 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 309 | 444 | 753 | 198 | 327 | 31 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 101 | 96 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 257 | 281 | 539 | 62 | 301 | 30 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 292 | 269 | 77 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 59 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 286 | 342 | 491 | 833 | 204 | 343 | 20 | 7 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 183 | 168 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 208 | 269 | 321 | 591 | 113 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 217 | 195 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 68 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 174 | 255 | 287 | 542 | 113 | 238 | 31 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 144 | 136 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 199 | 227 | 250 | 477 | 51 | 252 | 24 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 185 | 168 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 232 | 287 | 321 | 609 | 89 | 296 | 24 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 185 | 164 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 280 | 348 | 384 | 732 | 104 | 328 | 17 | 6 | 325 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 551 | 503 | 117 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 131 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 233 | 293 | 316 | 609 | 83 | 300 | 24 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 551 | 484 | 134 | 24 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 92 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 277 | 357 | 417 | 774 | 140 | 314 | 17 | 10 | 345 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 491 | 464 | 99 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 134 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 213 | 251 | 293 | 544 | 80 | 288 | 27 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 491 | 451 | 110 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 108 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 244 | 300 | 333 | 632 | 89 | 309 | 22 | 7 | 285 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 217 | 199 | 47 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 236 | 296 | 377 | 673 | 141 | 303 | 25 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 217 | 192 | 56 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 292 | 370 | 458 | 829 | 167 | 352 | 20 | 10 | 367 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 205 | 187 | 46 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 309 | 444 | 753 | 198 | 336 | 31 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 205 | 176 | 52 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 295 | 392 | 545 | 938 | 250 | 376 | 25 | 13 | 408 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 365 | 98 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 89 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 268 | 321 | 436 | 756 | 167 | 333 | 23 | 6 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 393 | 352 | 109 | 30 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 72 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 310 | 382 | 523 | 904 | 213 | 360 | 18 | 10 | 397 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 400 | 363 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 122 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 193 | 264 | 306 | 570 | 113 | 261 | 30 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 400 | 343 | 82 | 16 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 96 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 239 | 344 | 399 | 744 | 160 | 292 | 24 | 13 | 335 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 144 | 136 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 199 | 227 | 250 | 477 | 51 | 260 | 24 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 144 | 133 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 226 | 270 | 286 | 555 | 60 | 278 | 19 | 5 | 249 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 185 | 170 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 229 | 287 | 318 | 605 | 88 | 283 | 24 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 551 | 503 | 117 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 131 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 233 | 293 | 316 | 609 | 83 | 299 | 24 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 491 | 465 | 99 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 134 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 213 | 251 | 292 | 543 | 80 | 284 | 27 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 217 | 198 | 47 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 237 | 296 | 379 | 675 | 141 | 297 | 25 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 205 | 186 | 46 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 247 | 309 | 446 | 755 | 199 | 327 | 31 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 362 | 98 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 89 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 271 | 321 | 439 | 760 | 169 | 332 | 23 | 6 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 400 | 362 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 122 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 193 | 264 | 307 | 570 | 113 | 256 | 30 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 144 | 138 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 196 | 227 | 246 | 473 | 51 | 252 | 24 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 144 | 138 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 196 | 227 | 246 | 473 | 51 | 252 | 24 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2586 | 2385 | 543 | 126 | 11 | 40 | 157 | 673 | 24 | 69 | 34 | 228 | 282 | 340 | 622 | 112 | 297 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -94 | +0 | +0 | -28 | +56 | -6.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 137 | 32 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 169 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 229 | 282 | 342 | 624 | 114 | 299 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -24 | -0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AABirmingham Barons · 144 PAwOBA .247 → .211 (−36)K% 19.4% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.44% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.86% | ÷1.081 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.948 | 2.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.948 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.95% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×0.948 | 19.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.62% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×1.024 | ×0.948 | 6.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.880 | ×1.024 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 96, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .247 → .211; ISO .060 → .053; BABIP .278 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABirmingham Barons · 217 PAwOBA .329 → .249 (−80)K% 24.0% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.96% | ÷0.938 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 9.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.37% | ÷1.069 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×0.958 | 17.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷0.961 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×0.958 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | ×0.994 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.34% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 4.04% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 93, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .329 → .249; ISO .158 → .124; BABIP .288 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 183 PAwOBA .323 → .258 (−66)K% 24.0% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.04% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.93% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.55% | ÷0.967 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×0.982 | 21.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×0.982 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.17% | ÷1.152 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 99, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .323 → .258; ISO .163 → .110; BABIP .297 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABirmingham Barons · 292 PAwOBA .416 → .356 (−59)K% 16.4% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.44% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.62% | ÷0.993 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.38% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 12.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.987 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.24% | ÷1.056 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.84% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 97, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .416 → .356; ISO .252 → .213; BABIP .367 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 101 PAwOBA .302 → .234 (−68)K% 23.8% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.76% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.93% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.14% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 25.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.421 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.40% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .302 → .234; ISO .106 → .062; BABIP .338 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABirmingham Barons · 205 PAwOBA .398 → .316 (−81)K% 25.4% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.37% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.119 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 7.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.16% | ÷1.075 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×0.978 | 17.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.52% | ÷0.928 | ×0.870 | ×1.011 | ×0.978 | 13.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.978 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.087 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.53% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 115, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 100, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .398 → .316; ISO .250 → .201; BABIP .376 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMississippi Braves · 217 PAwOBA .358 → .295 (−63)K% 19.8% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.82% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.22% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.50% | ÷1.068 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.04% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.68% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.98% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 114, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .358 → .295; ISO .167 → .150; BABIP .352 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAMississippi Braves · 491 PAwOBA .278 → .237 (−41)K% 22.0% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.00% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.72% | ÷1.037 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.20% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.32% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 21.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 6.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.110 | ×0.880 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.17% | ÷0.897 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 122, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .278 → .237; ISO .089 → .077; BABIP .309 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).