Brian O'Grady
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 457 | .262/.353/.470 | 14 | 9 | 93 | — | .236/.297/.431 | |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 565 | .269/.359/.522 | 30 | 21 | 90 | — | .217/.270/.427 | |
| 2019 | 27 | MLBCIN | 48 | .190/.292/.429 | 2 | 0 | 97 | 0.3 | ||
| 2021 | 29 | AAASD | 329 | .281/.368/.547 | 15 | 10 | 72 | — | .201/.267/.365 | |
| 2021 | 29 | MLBSD | 61 | .157/.271/.333 | 2 | 0 | 69 | -0.5 | ||
| 2022 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 22 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 254 | 214 | 55 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 45 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 257 | 361 | 449 | 810 | 192 | 292 | 18 | 14 | 354 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 161 | 138 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 314 | 341 | 655 | 130 | 258 | 25 | 11 | 298 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 305 | 251 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 46 | 55 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 271 | 390 | 450 | 840 | 179 | 320 | 18 | 15 | 370 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 426 | 345 | 81 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 67 | 96 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 235 | 364 | 394 | 758 | 159 | 295 | 23 | 16 | 340 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 45 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 333 | 237 | 570 | 26 | 320 | 29 | 16 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 210 | 169 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 59 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 166 | 312 | 337 | 649 | 172 | 198 | 28 | 16 | 294 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 61 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 245 | 333 | 377 | 711 | 132 | 308 | 21 | 11 | 316 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 162 | 144 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 306 | 365 | 562 | 927 | 257 | 367 | 24 | 7 | 394 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 214 | 178 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 258 | 361 | 472 | 832 | 213 | 294 | 19 | 13 | 357 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | INTL | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 81 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 312 | 269 | 581 | 90 | 261 | 27 | 16 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 48 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 292 | 429 | 720 | 238 | 261 | 35 | 8 | 319 | 97 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 489 | 429 | 120 | 30 | 1 | 28 | 51 | 136 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 280 | 361 | 550 | 911 | 270 | 342 | 28 | 10 | 393 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 76 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 347 | 328 | 675 | 131 | 244 | 25 | 17 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | — | 61 | 51 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 271 | 333 | 605 | 176 | 182 | 28 | 13 | 267 | 69 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 329 | 285 | 80 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 85 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 281 | 368 | 547 | 915 | 267 | 346 | 26 | 11 | 394 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 109 | 93 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 280 | 376 | 657 | 204 | 214 | 31 | 11 | 290 | 83 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +2 | -0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 254 | 228 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 65 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 171 | 241 | 289 | 530 | 118 | 208 | 26 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 161 | 142 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 59 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 162 | 252 | 261 | 512 | 99 | 231 | 37 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 305 | 267 | 54 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 77 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 202 | 290 | 318 | 608 | 116 | 260 | 25 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 426 | 369 | 67 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 136 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 182 | 281 | 295 | 576 | 114 | 252 | 32 | 11 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 210 | 184 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 74 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 130 | 220 | 239 | 459 | 109 | 166 | 35 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 61 | 55 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 218 | 283 | 345 | 629 | 127 | 280 | 31 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 162 | 150 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 260 | 302 | 473 | 775 | 213 | 329 | 30 | 4 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 214 | 188 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 293 | 399 | 692 | 181 | 245 | 23 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 48 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 292 | 429 | 720 | 238 | 261 | 35 | 8 | 311 | 97 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 489 | 452 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 170 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 217 | 270 | 427 | 697 | 210 | 278 | 35 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | — | 61 | 51 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 271 | 333 | 605 | 176 | 182 | 28 | 13 | 270 | 69 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 329 | 299 | 60 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 106 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 201 | 267 | 365 | 631 | 164 | 269 | 32 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 254 | 228 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 65 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 171 | 241 | 289 | 530 | 118 | 213 | 26 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 254 | 214 | 55 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 45 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 257 | 361 | 449 | 810 | 192 | 292 | 18 | 14 | 354 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 409 | 77 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 137 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 188 | 277 | 301 | 577 | 112 | 257 | 29 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 466 | 389 | 97 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 64 | 96 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 249 | 364 | 411 | 775 | 162 | 300 | 21 | 14 | 345 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 409 | 74 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 51 | 150 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 181 | 280 | 296 | 575 | 115 | 259 | 32 | 11 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 471 | 383 | 89 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 74 | 109 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 232 | 361 | 379 | 740 | 146 | 297 | 23 | 16 | 334 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 271 | 239 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 92 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 142 | 226 | 251 | 477 | 109 | 200 | 34 | 9 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 271 | 222 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 72 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 185 | 317 | 347 | 664 | 162 | 228 | 27 | 15 | 299 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 457 | 412 | 98 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 31 | 118 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 238 | 298 | 434 | 732 | 197 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 457 | 389 | 102 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 52 | 102 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 262 | 353 | 470 | 824 | 208 | 314 | 22 | 11 | 355 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 613 | 563 | 122 | 27 | 2 | 30 | 38 | 213 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 217 | 275 | 432 | 706 | 215 | 283 | 35 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 613 | 532 | 140 | 34 | 2 | 32 | 68 | 172 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 263 | 354 | 515 | 869 | 252 | 324 | 28 | 11 | 377 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 350 | 68 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 123 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 194 | 268 | 360 | 628 | 166 | 259 | 32 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 390 | 336 | 88 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 44 | 102 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 262 | 353 | 515 | 868 | 253 | 321 | 26 | 11 | 374 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 254 | 231 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 65 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 169 | 241 | 286 | 527 | 117 | 208 | 26 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 413 | 77 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 137 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 186 | 277 | 298 | 575 | 111 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 412 | 74 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 51 | 150 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 180 | 280 | 294 | 573 | 114 | 252 | 32 | 11 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 271 | 243 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 92 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 140 | 226 | 247 | 473 | 107 | 192 | 34 | 9 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 457 | 419 | 98 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 31 | 118 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 234 | 298 | 427 | 725 | 193 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 613 | 563 | 122 | 27 | 2 | 30 | 38 | 213 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 217 | 275 | 432 | 706 | 215 | 276 | 35 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 352 | 68 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 123 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 193 | 268 | 358 | 625 | 165 | 255 | 32 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 109 | 93 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 280 | 376 | 657 | 204 | 214 | 31 | 11 | 290 | 71 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 555 | 96 | 30 | 6 | 24 | 72 | 203 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 282 | 378 | 661 | 205 | 216 | 31 | 11 | 290 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +4 | -12 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2922 | 2610 | 512 | 111 | 26 | 81 | 240 | 898 | 28 | 97 | 24 | 196 | 271 | 352 | 623 | 156 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 114 | 25 | 6 | 18 | 53 | 200 | 6 | 22 | 5 | 196 | 270 | 353 | 623 | 157 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +4 | -12 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 329 PAwOBA .385 → .275 (−110)K% 25.8% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.84% | ÷0.960 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.33% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.50% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 16.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.50% | ÷1.116 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.099 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.154 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 4.47% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 101, 2B 123, 3B 120, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .385 → .275; ISO .267 → .169; BABIP .346 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAALouisville Bats · 489 PAwOBA .384 → .300 (−84)K% 27.8% → 34.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.81% | ÷0.960 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.02% | ÷1.151 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.82% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 18.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.24% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.56% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 8.41% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .384 → .300; ISO .270 → .222; BABIP .342 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 214 PAwOBA .355 → .299 (−55)K% 19.2% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.16% | ÷1.030 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.15% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 8.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.52% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 14.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.76% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.92% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.81% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .355 → .299; ISO .213 → .192; BABIP .294 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALouisville Bats · 162 PAwOBA .382 → .331 (−51)K% 24.1% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.07% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.17% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.018 | 22.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.018 | 7.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.018 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.62% | ÷0.988 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 6.60% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .382 → .331; ISO .257 → .221; BABIP .367 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 210 PAwOBA .285 → .207 (−78)K% 28.1% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.10% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.76% | ÷1.095 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 9.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 11.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.82% | ÷0.943 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.36% | ÷1.399 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.63% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 89, K 96, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .207; ISO .172 → .118; BABIP .198 → .166. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Daytona Tortugas · 61 PAwOBA .302 → .254 (−48)K% 21.3% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.31% | ÷0.996 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.84% | ÷0.964 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 20.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.978 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.951 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.932 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 90, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .254; ISO .132 → .113; BABIP .308 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Daytona Tortugas · 426 PAwOBA .334 → .259 (−74)K% 22.5% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.54% | ÷1.004 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.49% | ÷1.059 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 10.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.08% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | ×0.988 | 17.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.43% | ÷1.061 | ×0.960 | ×0.956 | ×0.988 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.956 | ×0.988 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.063 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.96% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .334 → .259; ISO .159 → .122; BABIP .295 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ADayton Dragons · 305 PAwOBA .364 → .278 (−86)K% 18.0% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.03% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.43% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 9.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.92% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 17.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.65% | ÷1.037 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.06% | ÷1.137 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 2.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.06% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.25% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 127, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .364 → .278; ISO .179 → .133; BABIP .320 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .