Daniel Johnson

CF Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 32 L/L 5'10" / 200 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 0.363 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	601	.254/.312/.424	22	20	66	—	.219/.269/.355
2025	30	AAA/INTL2 orgs	242	.258/.307/.462	9	8	65	—	.213/.245/.374
2025	30	MLBBAL	57	.189/.246/.302	1	2	51	-0.1
2026	31	AAAHOU	72	.164/.211/.254	1	2	-2	—	.132/.169/.206
2026	31	MLBHOU	17	.143/.294/.143	0	0	43	-0.1
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBHOU	12	.242/.286/.380	0	1	84	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBHOU	29	.236/.280/.366	1	1	78	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.363First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.4M2031Ext$0.7M2032Ext$1M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Z-Con%74

Speed73

K%61

Whiff%60

Max EV33

BB%15

CompsReggie Taylor (age 32) · Corey Patterson (age 32) · Reggie Abercrombie (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .286 / .380

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP300

ISO91

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

410.244

POWER60

Barrel%

599.5

Avg EV

4788.9

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

9029.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2021

Service 0.363 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	22	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	185	170	50	13	0	5	13	30	1	10	2	294	348	459	807	165	331	16	7	356	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	364	327	98	16	4	17	22	70	11	12	9	300	364	529	893	229	333	19	6	387	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	74	69	15	3	1	0	5	11	0	5	0	217	270	290	560	72	259	15	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	356	95	19	7	6	23	90	7	21	4	267	324	410	734	143	338	23	6	323	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	24	20	6	0	0	1	2	2	2	1	0	300	417	450	867	150	294	8	8	395	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	69	59	7	1	0	0	9	19	0	5	0	119	235	136	371	17	171	28	13	188	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	380	337	103	27	5	9	34	79	4	6	7	306	376	496	872	190	370	21	9	380	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	167	146	37	7	2	10	16	39	3	6	3	253	339	534	874	281	276	23	10	375	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	88	81	19	4	1	1	5	28	1	2	0	235	287	346	633	111	340	32	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	81	77	17	0	0	4	4	27	0	1	0	221	259	377	636	156	283	33	5	282	77	-2	+0	+0	-4	+2	-0.5
2021	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	318	279	62	16	2	14	35	106	3	7	1	222	315	444	760	222	300	33	11	335	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	219	203	38	4	1	5	12	71	1	2	2	187	236	291	527	103	254	32	5	236	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	22	19	7	1	0	2	2	5	1	0	0	368	455	737	1.191	368	417	23	9	509	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	21	19	8	3	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	421	476	579	1.055	158	615	29	10	465	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	125	108	32	11	1	6	13	21	3	9	2	296	387	583	970	287	317	17	10	417	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	412	361	95	17	3	13	40	77	4	21	6	263	343	435	778	172	295	19	10	341	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	500	451	117	20	1	21	37	129	6	17	10	259	324	448	772	188	313	26	7	338	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	101	96	22	3	1	1	3	16	0	3	2	229	253	312	565	83	259	16	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	57	53	10	3	0	1	4	13	0	2	1	189	246	302	548	113	231	23	7	248	51	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2025	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	220	206	55	13	3	9	12	38	2	7	1	267	314	490	804	223	289	17	5	351	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	22	19	3	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	158	238	158	396		176	14	9	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	Houston Astros	—	17	14	2	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	143	294	143	437		182	18	12	232	43	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.1
2026	31	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	72	67	11	3	0	1	4	16	0	2	1	164	211	254	465	90	196	22	6	209	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	155	144	29	3	0	5	10	43	1	3	1	201	258	326	584	125	250	28	6	264	65	-6	+0	-0	-3	+3	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	22	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	185	174	40	10	0	3	9	44	1	10	2	230	272	339	611	109	282	24	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	364	336	82	11	3	15	13	93	11	12	9	244	294	429	723	185	281	26	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	363	87	16	6	5	16	111	7	21	4	240	285	358	643	118	324	28	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	24	21	5	0	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	238	333	381	714	143	229	12	4	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	380	349	94	22	5	8	22	95	4	6	7	269	320	430	750	160	341	25	6	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	167	152	34	6	2	9	10	47	3	6	3	224	285	467	752	243	252	28	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	81	77	17	0	0	4	4	27	0	1	0	221	259	377	636	156	283	33	5	282	77	-2	+0	+0	-4	+2	-0.5
2021	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	318	290	51	13	2	9	24	127	3	7	1	176	246	328	574	152	267	40	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	219	206	31	3	1	3	9	81	1	2	2	150	190	218	408	68	220	37	4	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	22	20	7	1	0	2	1	6	1	0	0	350	409	700	1.109	350	372	27	5	405	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	21	20	6	2	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	300	333	400	733	100	502	43	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	125	112	28	9	1	4	8	26	3	9	2	250	315	455	770	205	281	21	6	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	412	373	81	12	3	12	28	95	4	21	6	217	279	362	641	145	246	23	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	500	462	101	16	1	15	26	144	6	17	10	219	269	355	624	136	273	29	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	57	53	10	3	0	1	4	13	0	2	1	189	246	302	548	113	231	23	7	244	51	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2025	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	220	211	45	10	3	6	7	47	2	7	1	213	245	374	620	161	251	21	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	17	14	2	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	143	294	143	437		182	18	12	231	43	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.1
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	72	68	9	2	0	1	3	19	0	2	1	132	169	206	375	74	173	26	4	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	623	581	137	23	4	20	25	156	12	27	11	236	282	392	674	157	286	25	4	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	623	566	163	32	5	22	40	111	12	27	11	288	348	479	827	191	323	18	6	362	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	484	449	108	19	7	7	20	133	9	27	4	241	287	361	647	120	323	27	4	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	484	435	108	20	7	7	34	111	9	27	4	248	316	375	691	126	315	23	7	308	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	635	581	150	33	9	20	38	166	8	14	10	258	313	449	762	191	323	26	6	326	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	635	564	159	38	8	20	55	146	8	14	10	282	354	484	838	202	343	23	9	365	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	399	367	68	13	2	13	28	154	3	8	1	185	249	338	587	153	274	39	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	399	356	79	16	2	18	39	133	3	8	1	222	304	430	734	208	296	33	10	325	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	262	246	43	6	1	5	11	96	2	2	2	175	216	268	485	93	257	37	4	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	262	241	53	8	1	7	16	82	2	2	2	220	274	349	623	129	297	31	6	277	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	537	485	108	21	3	16	37	121	7	30	8	223	287	377	665	155	258	23	7	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA RAW	2 teams	—	537	469	127	28	4	19	53	98	7	30	8	271	353	469	823	198	300	18	10	359	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	601	556	122	19	1	18	31	174	6	20	12	219	268	354	622	135	280	29	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	601	547	139	23	2	22	40	145	6	20	12	254	312	424	736	170	302	24	7	323	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	299	284	60	14	3	8	12	65	2	10	2	211	248	366	615	155	245	22	4	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	299	278	68	16	3	10	18	54	2	10	2	245	295	432	727	187	270	18	6	319	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	89	82	11	2	0	1	5	22	1	2	1	134	193	195	388	61	167	25	6	178	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	89	81	13	3	0	1	6	19	1	2	1	160	227	235	462	74	194	21	7	213	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	623	581	137	23	4	20	25	156	12	27	11	236	282	392	674	157	281	25	4	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	484	452	108	19	7	7	20	133	9	27	4	239	287	358	645	119	319	27	4	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	635	584	150	33	9	20	38	166	8	14	10	257	313	447	760	190	314	26	6	326	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	399	365	68	13	2	13	28	154	3	8	1	186	249	340	588	153	270	39	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	262	247	43	6	1	5	11	96	2	2	2	174	216	267	483	93	255	37	4	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	537	488	108	21	3	16	37	121	7	30	8	221	287	375	662	154	254	23	7	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	601	559	122	19	1	18	31	174	6	20	12	218	268	352	621	134	273	29	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	299	283	60	14	3	8	12	65	2	10	2	212	248	367	616	155	247	22	4	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	89	83	11	2	0	1	5	22	1	2	1	133	193	193	386	60	175	25	6	178	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	601	559	122	19	1	18	31	174	6	20	12	218	268	352	621	134	273	29	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	299	283	60	14	3	8	12	65	2	10	2	212	248	367	616	155	247	22	4	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	89	83	11	2	0	1	5	22	1	2	1	133	193	193	386	60	175	25	6	178	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	10%	200	186	45	9	1	5	10	49	2	11	2	239	283	376	659	137	296	24	5	292	84	-4	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	10%	12	11	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	242	286	380	665	137	300	25	8	294	84	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	27%	105	98	23	4	1	2	5	26	1	4	1	233	277	363	640	130	291	25	5	284	78	-3	+0	-4	+0	+2	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	27%	29	28	6	1	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	236	280	366	646	130	295	24	3	287	78	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	184	172	35	4	0	6	11	50	1	4	1	203	255	331	587	128	250	27	6	268	75	-7	+0	-1	-3	+4	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	608	123	14	0	21	39	177	4	14	4	202	255	329	584	127	249	27	6	268	75	-25	+1	-4	-10	+14	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4158	3845	858	159	32	113	218	1143	52	151	53	223	274	369	643	146	283	27	5	280	75	-12	+2	-4	-2	+8	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	135	25	5	18	34	179	8	24	8	225	275	373	648	148	285	28	5	280	75	-20	+3	-7	-4	+14	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 72 PAwOBA .206 → .165 (−41)K% 22.2% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	3.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.73%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.026	×0.962	12.60%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.026	×0.962	4.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.026	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .206 → .165; ISO .090 → .066; BABIP .196 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 220 PAwOBA .341 → .271 (−70)K% 17.3% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.27%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	21.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.45%	÷1.063	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.44%
HBP% /PA	0.91%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.83%
Singles /BIP	17.86%	÷0.959	×0.930	×0.962	×0.972	16.19%
Doubles /BIP	7.74%	÷0.978	×0.830	×0.962	×0.972	6.14%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.962	×0.972	1.80%
Home runs /BIP	5.36%	÷0.945	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .341 → .271; ISO .223 → .169; BABIP .289 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 500 PAwOBA .333 → .270 (−63)K% 25.8% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.80%	÷1.070	×1.200	—	—	28.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.40%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.08%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.11%
Singles /BIP	23.29%	÷0.962	×0.930	×0.969	×0.982	21.42%
Doubles /BIP	6.21%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.969	×0.982	4.87%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.969	×0.982	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	6.52%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.50%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .333 → .270; ISO .188 → .137; BABIP .313 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 412 PAwOBA .337 → .281 (−57)K% 18.7% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.69%	÷0.987	×1.220	—	—	23.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.47%	÷0.927	×0.700	—	×0.968	6.92%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.870	—	×0.968	0.82%
Singles /BIP	21.83%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.964	×0.968	19.00%
Doubles /BIP	5.99%	÷1.116	×0.840	×0.964	×0.968	4.20%
Triples /BIP	1.06%	÷1.010	×0.940	×0.964	×0.968	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	4.58%	÷0.820	×0.800	—	×0.968	4.33%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .337 → .281; ISO .172 → .150; BABIP .295 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 125 PAwOBA .407 → .333 (−74)K% 16.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.80%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.60%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.82%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.24%
Singles /BIP	16.09%	÷0.958	×0.930	×0.999	×0.992	15.48%
Doubles /BIP	12.64%	÷0.975	×0.830	×0.999	×0.992	10.67%
Triples /BIP	1.15%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.999	×0.992	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .407 → .333; ISO .287 → .214; BABIP .317 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 219 PAwOBA .232 → .183 (−49)K% 32.4% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.42%	÷1.049	×1.200	—	—	37.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.48%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.90%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.43%
Singles /BIP	21.21%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.951	×1.003	18.63%
Doubles /BIP	3.03%	÷0.930	×0.830	×0.951	×1.003	2.58%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷0.913	×0.970	×0.951	×1.003	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	3.79%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .232 → .183; ISO .103 → .072; BABIP .254 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAHarrisburg Senators · 22 PAwOBA .494 → .405 (−90)K% 22.7% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷0.996	×1.220	—	—	27.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷0.980	×0.700	—	×0.978	6.35%
HBP% /PA	4.55%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	3.78%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.016	×0.970	—	×0.978	26.66%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.936	×0.860	—	×0.978	6.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	—	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.29%	÷0.979	×0.780	—	×0.978	11.13%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .494 → .405; ISO .368 → .286; BABIP .417 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 21 PAwOBA .453 → .313 (−141)K% 28.6% → 40.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷0.959	×1.360	—	—	40.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.52%	÷1.081	×0.690	—	×0.950	5.78%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.950	0.00%
Singles /BIP	38.46%	÷1.052	×0.920	—	×0.950	31.96%
Doubles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.999	×0.830	—	×0.950	18.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.910	—	×0.950	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.949	×0.800	—	×0.950	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 110, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.0 → −5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .453 → .313; ISO .158 → .108; BABIP .615 → .502. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daniel Johnson (OGILVIE)	32	55	60	50	30	237/281/373	136	296	3	7	24%	5%	84	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Reggie Taylor 2009 · AAA	32	51→56	47→50	54→55	47	254/301/390	136	291	15	23	19%	6%	95	+0.9	222/268/349	127	270	13	13	23%	6%	73	-0.6	188/221/310	122	224	12	3	23%	4%	43	-0.9
✕Corey Patterson 2012 · MLB	32	48→54	44→55	53→60	41	238/275/359	121	290	11	24	22%	5%	77	-0.3	206/236/322	116	253	12	18	24%	3%	54	-2.0	183/205/289	106	225	11	18	25%	2%	32	-2.0
✕Reggie Abercrombie 2013 · AAA	32	46→49	51→55	50→60	33	229/288/386	157	328	19	24	35%	4%	90	+0.6	229/281/386	157	323	19	20	34%	4%	86	+0.3	218/258/360	141	306	19	22	34%	3%	71	-0.3
✕Wynton Bernard 2023 · MLB	32	49→59	46→45	62→60	44	242/286/382	140	287	13	30	21%	5%	86	+0.3	236/282/346	110	292	9	33	22%	6%	77	-0.3	231/279/323	91	291	7	39	22%	5%	66	-0.8
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2019 · MLB	32	46→50	46→45	56→60	45	228/288/361	133	290	14	23	26%	7%	83	+0.1	198/263/321	123	283	14	16	33%	7%	65	-1.2	148/216/240	92	221	11	15	37%	6%	28	-2.4
✕Adam Engel 2023 · MLB	31	47→48	46→50	54→60	40	233/287/363	130	303	13	23	27%	5%	83	+0.1	212/284/343	131	308	13	23	33%	8%	78	-0.3	180/264/305	125	272	13	30	36%	9%	59	-1.0
✕Hernán Pérez 2023 · MLB	32	45→55	43→50	55	40	225/266/332	107	285	11	23	25%	5%	68	-1.0	211/258/332	121	269	14	16	26%	6%	65	-1.2	192/241/311	119	241	14	14	26%	5%	53	-1.0
✕Dewayne Wise 2009 · MLB	31	48→40	52→60	59→55	42	244/292/424	180	286	19	25	22%	5%	99	+1.3	237/278/395	158	286	14	20	22%	4%	87	+0.4	238/273/396	158	291	16	27	24%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Eugenio Velez 2014 · MLB	32	51→60	43→50	58→65	46	246/300/367	121	303	10	30	22%	7%	88	+0.5	251/296/349	98	308	7	29	20%	6%	82	+0.0	255/296/336	81	311	6	30	19%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Dustin Martin 2017 · AAA	33	54→58	47→50	57→55	46	266/321/409	143	327	15	27	23%	7%	106	+1.8	233/301/375	142	301	15	24	26%	8%	91	+0.7	206/284/344	138	266	16	26	28%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Alexis Gomez 2011 · AAA	32	55→59	49→50	60→55	48	273/321/418	145	312	17	34	18%	7%	108	+1.9	253/302/386	133	297	13	21	19%	6%	93	+0.8	248/288/374	126	286	7	13	16%	4%	84	+0.0
✕Christian Zazueta 2017 · AAA	32	47→54	44→45	58→60	37	236/258/352	117	277	12	29	20%	2%	69	-0.9	224/250/319	95	264	9	27	19%	2%	58	-1.7	220/244/297	77	255	7	27	17%	2%	47	-1.5
✕Jason Pridie 2015 · AAA	31	45→55	45→50	55	42	225/269/346	121	280	13	19	25%	6%	72	-0.7	237/286/384	147	290	17	19	24%	6%	87	+0.4	243/292/403	159	292	20	19	24%	6%	93	+0.8
✕Noe Mata 2006 · AAA	32	51→57	45	54→50	44	252/304/375	124	304	12	20	21%	6%	92	+0.7	257/291/369	112	302	11	10	18%	4%	85	+0.2	266/295/373	107	307	11	7	17%	3%	84	+0.1
✕Will Venable 2015 · MLB	32	49→55	49→55	54→60	45	248/301/402	154	299	16	20	23%	7%	97	+1.1	223/283/334	111	283	11	16	24%	7%	75	-0.5	210/273/301	92	270	9	17	24%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Leonys Martin 2019 · MLB	31	48→56	49→50	54→60	44	243/297/392	149	301	16	21	25%	7%	93	+0.8	229/297/384	155	290	19	12	27%	8%	92	+0.7	196/272/338	142	249	21	9	30%	8%	74	-0.3
✕George Lombard 2007 · MLB	31	44→43	50	59→55	43	222/292/377	155	300	17	25	31%	8%	88	+0.5	222/287/356	134	315	14	23	32%	7%	82	-0.0	210/274/313	104	298	12	32	32%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Drew Stubbs 2017 · MLB	32	46→56	48→50	57→60	46	224/301/365	141	321	16	26	33%	9%	89	+0.5	216/291/331	115	324	12	16	34%	9%	78	-0.3	199/276/290	91	309	9	13	35%	9%	60	-1.0
✕Chris Dickerson 2014 · MLB	32	48→56	45→50	56→60	45	233/298/366	133	316	12	22	29%	8%	88	+0.4	238/304/363	125	328	12	19	29%	8%	89	+0.5	224/303/337	113	317	11	19	30%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Ryan LaMarre 2022 · MLB	33	47→52	46→45	53→60	42	228/295/358	130	318	13	23	31%	7%	86	+0.3	220/297/342	122	308	12	21	31%	7%	82	+0.0	200/284/303	103	284	11	24	31%	7%	66	-0.3