Daniel Johnson — OGILVIE

Daniel JohnsonCF Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 L/L 5'10" / 200 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 145 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .264 / .360

PA145

HR4

SB7

K%26

BB%5

BABIP271

ISO140

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

3512.7%

xwOBA

500.309

POWER60

Barrel%

599.5

Avg EV

4788.9

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE30

Chase%

7227.4%

SPEED50

Sprint

9029.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A	3 teams	—	623	583	136	21	4	22	23	157	12	27	11	233	277	396	673	163	279	25	4	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	3 teams	—	623	566	163	32	5	22	40	111	12	27	11	288	348	479	827	191	323	18	6	362	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	3 teams	—	484	450	101	18	6	8	19	142	9	27	4	224	270	344	614	120	306	29	4	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	3 teams	—	484	435	108	20	7	7	34	111	9	27	4	248	316	375	691	126	315	23	7	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	—	635	585	151	33	9	23	34	170	8	14	10	258	308	463	771	205	321	27	5	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	—	635	564	159	38	8	20	55	146	8	14	10	282	354	484	838	202	343	23	9	365	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	399	367	71	13	2	15	28	154	3	8	1	193	256	362	619	169	281	39	7	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	399	356	79	16	2	18	39	133	3	8	1	222	304	430	734	208	296	33	10	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	3 teams	—	262	246	44	7	1	5	11	94	2	2	2	179	220	276	496	98	260	36	4	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	3 teams	—	262	241	53	8	1	7	16	82	2	2	2	220	274	349	623	129	297	31	6	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA	2 teams	—	537	481	114	20	3	22	41	130	7	30	8	237	306	428	735	191	273	24	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AA	2 teams	—	537	469	127	28	4	19	53	98	7	30	8	271	353	469	823	198	300	18	10	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	2 teams	—	601	556	134	20	1	22	31	163	6	20	12	241	288	399	688	158	296	27	5	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	2 teams	—	601	547	139	23	2	22	40	145	6	20	12	254	312	424	736	170	302	24	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	3 teams	—	299	284	64	14	3	10	12	67	2	10	2	225	262	401	663	176	260	22	4	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	3 teams	—	299	278	68	16	3	10	18	54	2	10	2	245	295	432	727	187	270	18	6	319	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	AAA	HOU	—	105	98	12	2	0	1	5	32	1	2	1	122	173	173	347	51	167	30	5	162	-18	-14	+0	-0	+0	+3	-1.1
YTD	31	AAA	HOU	—	105	96	14	3	0	1	7	26	1	2	1	146	212	208	420	62	186	25	7	196	8	-11	+0	-0	+0	+3	-0.8
ROS	31	AAA	HOU	10%	145	136	30	5	1	4	7	37	1	7	1	221	264	360	624	140	274	26	5	284	75	-4	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.2
ROS	31	MLB	HOU	10%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	231	286	308	593	77	277	29	7	280	72	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	31	AAA	HOU	—	119	111	15	3	0	1	6	36	1	3	1	135	186	189	376	54	187	30	5	176	-7	-14	+0	-0	+0	+3	-1.1
TOT	31	AAA	HOU	—	250	234	42	7	1	5	12	69	2	9	2	179	226	282	508	103	228	28	5	233	36	-18	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	HOU	36%	308	285	65	12	2	9	17	80	3	12	2	228	279	379	658	151	276	26	6	284	76	-9	+2	-3	+1	+9	-0.0
2027	32	MLB	HOU	36%	110	102	23	4	1	3	6	28	1	4	1	225	275	373	648	147	279	25	5	280	73	-3	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	262	245	53	8	1	8	15	72	1	8	2	216	264	355	619	139	271	27	6	274	68	-10	+1	-1	-3	+7	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	608	131	20	2	20	37	179	2	20	5	215	262	354	616	138	270	28	6	274	68	-24	+2	-3	-7	+18	-1.3
Career	—			—	4293	3973	910	163	32	140	223	1194	53	157	53	229	279	392	671	163	288	28	5	291	81	-93	+10	-3	+1	+122	3.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	138	25	5	21	34	181	8	24	8	229	280	392	672	163	288	28	5	291	81	-14	+2	-0	+0	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	185	170	50	13	0	5	13	30	1	10	2	294	348	459	807	165	331	16	7	356	131	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.3
2017	22	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	364	327	98	16	4	17	22	70	11	12	9	300	364	529	893	229	333	19	6	387	155	+22	-1	—	—	+10	3.2
2017	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	74	69	15	3	1	0	5	11	0	5	0	217	270	290	560	72	259	15	7	256	54	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2018	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	356	95	19	7	6	23	90	7	21	4	267	324	410	734	143	338	23	6	323	106	+2	+3	—	—	+11	1.6
2018	23	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	24	20	6	0	0	1	2	2	2	1	0	300	417	450	867	150	294	8	8	395	160	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2018	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	69	59	7	1	0	0	9	19	0	5	0	119	235	136	371	17	171	28	13	188	2	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2019	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	380	337	103	27	5	9	34	79	4	6	7	306	376	496	872	190	370	21	9	380	149	+21	-2	—	—	+11	3.1
2019	24	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	167	146	37	7	2	10	16	39	3	6	3	253	339	534	874	281	276	23	10	375	145	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2019	24	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	88	81	19	4	1	1	5	28	1	2	0	235	287	346	633	111	340	32	6	282	74	-3	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2021	26	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	81	77	17	0	0	4	4	27	0	1	0	221	259	377	636	156	283	33	5	282	74	-2	+0	+0	-4	+2	-0.4
2021	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	318	279	62	16	2	14	35	106	3	7	1	222	315	444	760	222	300	33	11	335	115	+5	+1	—	—	+9	1.6
2022	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	219	203	38	4	1	5	12	71	1	2	2	187	236	291	527	103	254	32	5	236	39	-15	-0	—	—	+6	-1.0
2022	27	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	22	19	7	1	0	2	2	5	1	0	0	368	455	737	1.191	368	417	23	9	509	248	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	27	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	21	19	8	3	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	421	476	579	1.055	158	615	29	10	465	214	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	125	108	32	11	1	6	13	21	3	9	2	296	387	583	970	287	317	17	10	417	178	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2023	28	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	412	361	95	17	3	13	40	77	4	21	6	263	343	435	778	172	295	19	10	341	119	+9	+2	—	—	+12	2.3
2024	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	500	451	117	20	1	21	37	129	6	17	10	259	324	448	772	188	313	26	7	338	117	+10	-1	—	—	+14	2.4
2024	29	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	101	96	22	3	1	1	3	16	0	3	2	229	253	312	565	83	259	16	3	248	48	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	57	53	10	3	0	1	4	13	0	2	1	189	246	302	548	113	231	23	7	248	48	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2025	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	220	206	55	13	3	9	12	38	2	7	1	267	314	490	804	223	289	17	5	351	127	+7	+1	—	—	+6	1.4
2025	30	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	22	19	3	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	158	238	158	396		176	14	9	187	1	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	138	130	27	3	0	5	8	40	0	3	1	208	254	346	600	138	259	29	6	268	64	-6	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	273	9	9	220	265	364	+1	-1	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	22	21	220	265	364	+2.4	-1.2	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daniel Johnson (OGILVIE)	31	55	60	50	30	179/226/282	103	228	5	9	28%	5%	36	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dewayne Wise 2009 · MLB	31	48→40	53→60	59→55	42	247/294/428	181	289	19	25	22%	5%	101	+1.8	242/282/405	163	292	15	20	22%	4%	89	+1.0	248/283/416	169	302	17	27	24%	4%	90	+0.5
✕Rafael Ortega 2022 · MLB	31	49→54	53→55	49→55	49	254/317/429	176	298	21	17	23%	8%	111	+2.5	232/319/365	133	283	14	20	22%	11%	95	+1.4	217/315/340	123	267	13	24	22%	12%	85	+0.4
✕Reggie Taylor 2008 · MLB	31	52→58	50	53→55	48	264/318/421	157	299	18	25	18%	7%	109	+2.4	244/288/391	147	286	16	17	21%	6%	89	+0.9	233/270/371	137	276	14	12	21%	5%	75	+0.0
●Charlie Blackmon 2017 · MLB	31	52→57	49→60	54→55	49	261/321/413	152	287	16	24	16%	6%	108	+2.3	267/334/454	187	300	21	12	18%	8%	124	+3.4	265/333/459	193	296	22	8	18%	8%	120	+3.6
✕Will Venable 2014 · MLB	31	52→55	55→60	61→60	47	267/321/463	197	314	21	26	22%	7%	121	+3.2	239/300/373	134	299	14	18	24%	7%	89	+0.9	220/285/321	101	282	10	16	24%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Jonathan Villar 2022 · MLB	31	50→60	50	53→65	49	250/319/403	153	314	18	24	26%	9%	105	+2.1	236/293/378	142	305	15	19	26%	7%	87	+0.8	226/270/352	127	298	11	25	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Eduardo Núñez 2018 · MLB	31	58→61	48→50	55→60	46	290/326/437	147	312	16	30	13%	5%	117	+2.9	253/283/375	122	278	13	15	14%	4%	82	+0.5	240/264/347	107	264	11	10	14%	3%	64	-0.4
✕Alexis Gomez 2011 · AAA	32	56→61	53→55	60→55	46	283/328/456	173	320	22	34	19%	6%	122	+3.3	257/303/402	145	299	15	21	19%	6%	97	+1.5	251/294/377	126	290	8	13	16%	4%	85	+0.2
✕Leonys Martin 2019 · MLB	31	49→56	49→50	54→60	45	247/302/398	151	306	16	21	25%	7%	96	+1.5	229/297/385	156	290	19	12	27%	8%	92	+1.2	196/272/339	143	249	21	9	30%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Tyler Greene 2013 · MLB	29	48→53	50	56→55	43	238/303/396	159	315	17	24	29%	7%	97	+1.5	224/272/345	121	325	12	14	33%	5%	70	-0.3	219/262/322	103	328	9	10	35%	4%	57	-0.9
✕Hernán Pérez 2022 · MLB	31	48→55	50→55	52→55	43	245/291/393	149	305	18	15	26%	6%	90	+1.0	229/274/359	130	290	16	20	26%	5%	74	-0.1	214/259/339	125	268	16	20	26%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Danny Santana 2021 · MLB	30	48→58	57→60	54→55	40	247/295/449	202	320	24	20	31%	6%	108	+2.3	233/295/413	180	285	22	16	26%	8%	98	+1.6	215/279/422	208	234	29	22	24%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	49	54→55	54→55	49	252/326/430	178	295	22	21	23%	8%	115	+2.8	238/321/403	165	270	19	19	19%	9%	106	+2.2	214/303/391	177	236	21	21	20%	9%	94	+0.6
✕Ivan Araujo 2015 · AAA	31	52→59	47→50	56→55	41	259/298/398	139	313	15	21	22%	4%	95	+1.4	256/294/350	94	328	9	16	24%	4%	79	+0.3	270/308/324	54	356	3	12	24%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Jace Peterson 2021 · MLB	31	47→57	49→50	55	52	236/313/390	155	284	15	18	22%	10%	99	+1.7	236/323/382	146	299	16	18	25%	11%	101	+1.8	227/319/357	130	289	14	20	25%	11%	89	+0.6
✕Andrew Stevenson 2023 · MLB	29	52→59	47→50	59→60	42	254/305/402	147	325	13	24	25%	6%	98	+1.6	255/308/393	138	329	13	36	25%	6%	97	+1.5	266/320/399	133	345	13	48	25%	6%	98	+1.0
✕Corey Patterson 2011 · MLB	31	48→54	45→55	54→60	41	237/275/364	127	289	12	27	23%	5%	76	+0.0	225/258/345	120	277	11	21	23%	4%	63	-0.8	211/238/325	114	257	11	19	23%	3%	46	-1.2
✕Alejandro De Aza 2014 · MLB	30	55→61	46→50	52→55	49	267/328/403	136	320	13	21	20%	8%	108	+2.3	249/317/389	140	312	12	15	23%	8%	100	+1.7	241/315/378	137	306	11	14	23%	8%	92	+0.7
✕Chris Dickerson 2013 · MLB	31	52→55	46→50	60	47	246/316/381	135	339	12	29	29%	9%	98	+1.6	240/308/373	133	333	13	20	29%	8%	92	+1.2	235/319/362	127	334	13	19	31%	10%	91	+0.6
✕George Lombard 2007 · MLB	31	45→44	50	58→55	44	226/298/385	159	307	18	25	31%	8%	92	+1.2	227/291/365	138	323	15	23	32%	7%	83	+0.6	220/287/329	109	314	12	32	32%	8%	69	-0.1