Daniel Johnson — OGILVIE

Daniel JohnsonCF Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 L/L 5'10" / 200 lbs AAA H +4%HR -3% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .288 / .396

PA250

HR8

SB7

K%25

BB%6

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

60→60

SPD

50→50

EYE

39↘30

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$-3M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A	3 teams	623	583	134	22	3	22	23	153	12	27	11	.230	.273	.391	.665	.161	.272	25	4	.288	78	-15	+1	+0	-7	+18	-0.3
2018	23	AA	3 teams	484	450	104	18	7	7	19	140	9	27	4	.231	.276	.349	.625	.118	.316	29	4	.273	67	-18	+4	+0	-5	+14	-0.6
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	635	583	146	32	9	20	36	169	8	14	10	.250	.303	.439	.742	.189	.314	27	6	.320	103	+2	-1	+0	-7	+18	1.2
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	399	367	69	13	2	15	28	154	3	8	1	.188	.251	.357	.608	.169	.271	39	7	.263	59	-18	+1	+0	-4	+11	-1.0
2022	27	AAA	3 teams	262	246	45	7	1	6	11	97	2	2	2	.183	.224	.293	.517	.110	.267	37	4	.220	27	-22	-0	+0	-3	+7	-1.8
2023	28	AA	2 teams	537	484	109	21	3	18	38	128	7	30	8	.225	.291	.393	.684	.167	.263	24	7	.298	86	-8	+3	+0	-6	+15	0.4
2024	29	AAA	2 teams	601	556	131	20	1	22	31	167	6	20	12	.236	.283	.394	.677	.158	.291	28	5	.294	83	-11	-1	-0	-6	+17	-0.2
2025	30	AAA	3 teams	299	283	62	14	3	9	13	65	2	10	2	.219	.258	.385	.644	.166	.252	22	4	.280	72	-9	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	31	AAA	2 teams	37	36	3	1	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	.083	.108	.111	.219	.028	.158	46	3	.088	-75	-7	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.6
ROS	31	MLB	HOU	213	198	44	8	1	6	11	57	2	7	1	.222	.270	.364	.634	.141	.282	27	5	.289	79	-5	+1	-0	-2	+6	-0.1
TOT	31	MLB	HOU	250	234	47	9	1	6	12	74	2	7	1	.201	.246	.325	.571	.124	.265	30	5	.259	56	-12	+1	-0	-2	+7	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	32	MLB 20%	HOU	308	284	65	12	2	9	18	71	3	9	1	.229	.282	.380	.662	.151	.268	23	6	.289	80	-7	+1	-4	-3	+9	-0.4
2028	33	MLB 33%	HOU	278	256	58	11	1	8	17	66	3	7	1	.227	.283	.371	.654	.145	.269	24	6	.286	77	-7	+1	-5	-3	+8	-0.6
2029	34	MLB 43%	HOU	235	217	47	9	1	6	14	58	2	5	0	.217	.270	.350	.621	.134	.269	25	6	.282	74	-7	+1	-5	-3	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4874	4507	1014	187	34	148	259	1325	59	166	53	.225	.276	.380	.656	.155	.282	27	5	.286	77	-127	+12	-14	-48	+138	-3.9
/ 162G	—			650	601	136	25	5	20	35	177	8	22	7	.226	.278	.384	.662	.158	.284	27	5	.286	77	-17	+2	-2	-6	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A+	Potomac Nationals	185	170	50	13	0	5	13	30	1	10	2	.294	.348	.459	.807	.165	.331	16	7	.356	131	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.3
2017	22	A	Hagerstown Suns	364	327	98	16	4	17	22	70	11	12	9	.300	.364	.529	.893	.229	.333	19	6	.387	155	+22	-1	—	—	+10	3.2
2017	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	74	69	15	3	1	0	5	11	0	5	0	.217	.270	.290	.560	.072	.259	15	7	.256	54	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2018	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	391	356	95	19	7	6	23	90	7	21	4	.267	.324	.410	.734	.143	.338	23	6	.323	106	+2	+3	—	—	+11	1.6
2018	23	ROK	GCL Nationals	24	20	6	0	0	1	2	2	2	1	0	.300	.417	.450	.867	.150	.294	8	8	.395	160	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2018	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	69	59	7	1	0	0	9	19	0	5	0	.119	.235	.136	.371	.017	.171	28	13	.188	2	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2019	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	380	337	103	27	5	9	34	79	4	6	7	.306	.376	.496	.872	.190	.370	21	9	.380	149	+21	-2	—	—	+11	3.1
2019	24	AA	Akron RubberDucks	167	146	37	7	2	10	16	39	3	6	3	.253	.339	.534	.874	.281	.276	23	10	.375	145	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2019	24	INTL	Leones del Escogido	88	81	19	4	1	1	5	28	1	2	0	.235	.287	.346	.633	.111	.340	32	6	.282	74	-3	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2021	26	MLB	Cleveland Indians	81	77	17	0	0	4	4	27	0	1	0	.221	.259	.377	.636	.156	.283	33	5	.282	74	-2	+0	+0	-4	+2	-0.4
2021	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	318	279	62	16	2	14	35	106	3	7	1	.222	.315	.444	.760	.222	.300	33	11	.335	115	+5	+1	—	—	+9	1.6
2022	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	219	203	38	4	1	5	12	71	1	2	2	.187	.236	.291	.527	.103	.254	32	5	.236	39	-15	-0	—	—	+6	-1.0
2022	27	AA	Harrisburg Senators	22	19	7	1	0	2	2	5	1	0	0	.368	.455	.737	1.191	.368	.417	23	9	.509	248	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	27	A	St. Lucie Mets	21	19	8	3	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	.421	.476	.579	1.055	.158	.615	29	10	.465	214	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	125	108	32	11	1	6	13	21	3	9	2	.296	.387	.583	.970	.287	.317	17	10	.417	178	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2023	28	AA	San Antonio Missions	412	361	95	17	3	13	40	77	4	21	6	.263	.343	.435	.778	.172	.295	19	10	.341	119	+9	+2	—	—	+12	2.3
2024	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	500	451	117	20	1	21	37	129	6	17	10	.259	.324	.448	.772	.188	.313	26	7	.338	117	+10	-1	—	—	+14	2.4
2024	29	INTL	Tigres del Licey	101	96	22	3	1	1	3	16	0	3	2	.229	.253	.312	.565	.083	.259	16	3	.248	48	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	57	53	10	3	0	1	4	13	0	2	1	.189	.246	.302	.548	.113	.231	23	7	.248	48	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2025	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	220	206	55	13	3	9	12	38	2	7	1	.267	.314	.490	.804	.223	.289	17	5	.351	127	+7	+1	—	—	+6	1.4
2025	30	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	22	19	3	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	.158	.238	.158	.396	.000	.176	14	9	.187	1	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			138	130	27	3	0	5	8	40	0	3	1	.208	.254	.346	.600	.138	.259	29	6	.268	64	-6	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daniel Johnson (OGILVIE)	31	55	60	50	30	.238/.288/.396	.159	.290	8	9	25%	6%	91	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rafael Ortega 2022 · MLB	31	48→54	53→55	49→55	49	.246/.310/.423	.177	.290	21	16	23%	8%	106	+2.2	.231/.317/.368	.137	.280	15	20	22%	11%	95	+1.4	.216/.314/.341	.125	.264	13	24	22%	12%	84	+0.4
✕Brooks Conrad 2011 · MLB	31	41→44	52→55	52→50	43	.217/.277/.384	.167	.274	20	11	29%	7%	83	+0.6	.230/.298/.415	.185	.307	23	9	31%	8%	100	+1.7	.210/.276/.403	.193	.274	26	2	33%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Will Venable 2014 · MLB	31	51→56	52→55	61→60	47	.256/.313/.434	.178	.304	18	27	22%	7%	110	+2.4	.235/.296/.363	.128	.294	13	19	23%	8%	85	+0.7	.216/.282/.309	.093	.277	9	16	24%	8%	60	-0.7
✕Brad Snyder 2013 · MLB	31	47→54	52→60	50	38	.237/.281/.403	.167	.325	19	15	33%	6%	89	+1.0	.234/.283/.387	.153	.342	17	10	35%	6%	85	+0.7	.225/.286/.425	.200	.299	28	3	34%	8%	95	+0.5
✕Hernán Pérez 2022 · MLB	31	47→56	49→50	52→55	42	.238/.283/.385	.147	.296	17	15	26%	6%	85	+0.7	.230/.275/.360	.130	.291	15	20	26%	5%	75	-0.0	.215/.261/.342	.127	.269	16	20	26%	5%	63	-0.4
✕Reggie Taylor 2008 · MLB	31	51→58	49→50	52→55	47	.256/.308/.405	.149	.294	17	24	20%	6%	101	+1.8	.248/.293/.396	.148	.290	17	18	20%	6%	92	+1.2	.233/.270/.371	.137	.276	14	12	21%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Michael A. Taylor 2022 · MLB	31	46→51	48→55	48→60	42	.230/.285/.365	.135	.303	16	15	29%	6%	81	+0.4	.233/.291/.374	.141	.304	18	13	28%	7%	86	+0.8	.222/.282/.366	.144	.292	19	15	30%	7%	78	+0.2
✕Dewayne Wise 2009 · MLB	31	48→40	52→60	59→55	42	.246/.291/.425	.180	.289	18	23	22%	5%	99	+1.7	.241/.281/.401	.160	.291	15	20	22%	4%	89	+0.9	.241/.277/.398	.157	.296	15	27	24%	4%	82	+0.2
✕Jason Pridie 2015 · AAA	31	46→53	45→50	55	42	.232/.275/.356	.124	.290	13	18	25%	6%	73	-0.1	.245/.293/.397	.152	.300	18	19	24%	6%	92	+1.2	.257/.308/.427	.170	.309	21	19	23%	6%	105	+1.9
✕Tyler Greene 2014 · MLB	30	46→51	48→50	56→55	41	.229/.286/.372	.143	.313	15	22	31%	6%	83	+0.6	.228/.273/.343	.115	.336	11	11	34%	5%	69	-0.4	.232/.275/.336	.104	.353	9	7	35%	4%	66	-0.6
✕Chris Aguila 2010 · MLB	31	45→54	53→55	49→50	43	.234/.289/.398	.164	.290	22	12	27%	7%	92	+1.2	.217/.272/.363	.146	.288	17	7	30%	6%	76	+0.0	.209/.266/.343	.134	.279	15	5	30%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Matt Carson 2012 · MLB	31	44→50	56→60	52→50	41	.236/.284/.433	.196	.281	24	16	26%	5%	98	+1.6	.233/.280/.379	.146	.302	16	13	28%	5%	82	+0.5	.224/.273/.345	.121	.298	14	13	29%	5%	68	-0.4
✕Brent Lillibridge 2014 · MLB	30	44→53	48→50	53→60	39	.223/.276/.355	.132	.292	17	25	29%	5%	75	-0.0	.210/.261/.333	.123	.293	14	20	32%	5%	62	-0.9	.183/.237/.296	.113	.266	12	22	35%	5%	40	-1.4
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2018 · MLB	31	53→63	44→45	50→60	49	.257/.323/.369	.112	.317	12	15	22%	8%	98	+1.6	.225/.284/.332	.107	.290	11	19	25%	7%	72	-0.2	.169/.205/.225	.056	.223	3	36	25%	4%	6	-1.3
✕Kevin Pillar 2020 · MLB	31	50→59	51→55	49→55	43	.256/.292/.424	.168	.276	18	14	16%	4%	99	+1.7	.252/.296/.431	.179	.280	21	11	18%	5%	103	+1.9	.246/.299/.432	.186	.276	23	9	20%	5%	103	+0.8
✕George Lombard 2006 · MLB	30	45→44	50	56→55	42	.226/.291/.387	.161	.312	17	18	32%	7%	89	+1.0	.226/.295/.376	.150	.313	17	25	31%	8%	89	+0.9	.222/.298/.356	.134	.300	16	37	30%	8%	82	+0.2
✕Mario Lisson 2015 · AAA	31	45→49	51→55	48→55	45	.230/.299/.392	.162	.283	19	12	26%	7%	95	+1.4	.231/.296/.368	.137	.301	17	8	28%	7%	86	+0.8	.218/.285/.340	.123	.289	15	6	29%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Chris Owings 2023 · MLB	31	40→50	47→50	50→55	44	.205/.272/.343	.138	.276	15	13	31%	8%	70	-0.3	.203/.276/.336	.133	.294	16	11	34%	8%	70	-0.3	.193/.274/.320	.127	.282	16	11	35%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Mark Payton 2022 · MLB	30	48→54	50→55	48→50	46	.243/.295/.403	.160	.285	17	10	21%	7%	95	+1.4	.241/.296/.385	.144	.281	14	11	19%	7%	90	+1.0	.246/.304/.388	.142	.288	13	10	19%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Shane Peterson 2018 · MLB	30	48→58	49→50	55→50	41	.242/.287/.392	.150	.304	16	12	26%	5%	89	+0.9	.217/.262/.348	.131	.301	13	8	31%	5%	66	-0.6	.200/.248/.318	.118	.289	11	3	33%	5%	49	-1.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)