Sam Hilliard

LF Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 33 L/L 6'5" / 236 lbs AAA HR +30%H +12% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	29	MLBATL	78	.236/.295/.431	3	4	103	0.3
2024	30	AAACOL	305	.288/.377/.542	14	13	84	—	.224/.288/.394
2024	30	MLBCOL	158	.239/.309/.507	10	5	100	-0.1
2025	31	AAACOL	414	.288/.372/.565	17	15	82	—	.208/.267/.396
2025	31	MLBCOL	61	.196/.328/.412	2	2	99	-0.5
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBCOL	24	.242/.309/.468	1	1	99	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBCOL	17	.231/.297/.444	1	0	89	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Avg EV90

Speed87

Bat Spd87

Barrel%86

xwOBA36

CompsDewayne Wise (age 31) · George Lombard (age 31) · Dylan Moore (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9699vR 100

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .309 / .468

PA24

HR1

K%29

BB%8

BABIP307

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.199

POWER60

Barrel%

8613.6

Avg EV

9093.8

Bat Spd

8775.2

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

8728.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 215 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

172

—

wRC+

168

108

◀◀L

wOBA

416

327

◀◀L

ISO

425

212

◀◀L

BABIP

368

301

◀◀L

41.9%

34.3%

▶▶R

BB%

0.0%

12.8%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$3M
Totals		$3M		$0.2M	-$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	262	222	68	13	8	7	36	55	0	12	4	306	403	532	935	225	372	21	14	403	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	527	461	123	23	5	17	56	150	3	30	12	267	350	449	799	182	357	28	11	351	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	597	536	161	23	7	21	50	154	2	37	17	300	362	487	849	187	384	26	8	369	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	484	435	114	22	3	9	41	151	2	23	14	262	328	389	717	126	379	31	8	319	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	72	64	21	2	2	2	7	15	0	2	1	328	394	516	910	188	396	21	10	395	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	87	77	21	4	2	7	9	23	1	2	0	273	356	649	1.006	377	298	26	10	427	153	+5	+0	-1	+2	+2	0.9
2019	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	559	500	131	29	7	35	54	164	2	22	5	262	336	558	894	296	316	29	10	384	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	114	105	22	2	2	6	9	42	0	3	0	210	272	438	710	229	281	37	8	311	81	-3	+1	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2021	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	238	214	46	7	2	14	23	87	1	5	0	215	294	463	757	248	283	37	10	332	91	-3	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.5
2021	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	213	188	45	12	2	14	23	61	1	6	1	239	325	548	873	309	272	29	11	375	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	54	49	10	2	0	3	5	15	0	0	0	204	278	429	706	224	226	28	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	200	174	32	6	1	2	23	57	1	5	1	184	283	264	547	80	256	28	12	255	54	-11	+1	-2	-4	+4	-1.2
2022	28	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	158	133	41	5	2	13	21	39	2	4	1	308	410	669	1.079	361	337	25	13	455	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	78	72	17	5	0	3	6	33	0	4	0	236	295	431	725	194	389	42	8	320	103	+0	+1	-0	+0	+2	0.3
2023	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	16	13	4	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	308	438	308	745		500	31	19	357	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	158	138	33	5	1	10	14	56	0	5	2	239	309	507	816	268	311	35	9	342	100	+0	+0	-0	-5	+3	-0.1
2024	30	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	305	264	76	15	5	14	38	77	0	13	2	288	377	542	919	254	352	25	12	397	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	61	51	10	3	1	2	10	23	0	2	1	196	328	412	740	216	308	38	16	332	99	-0	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.5
2025	31	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	414	361	104	25	12	17	47	108	1	15	1	288	372	565	937	277	361	26	11	400	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	936	831	181	32	9	44	94	321	3	26	4	218	300	437	736	219	291	34	10	322	104	+5	+4	-6	-11	+20	1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	262	236	52	9	6	5	22	79	0	12	4	220	287	373	660	153	291	30	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	527	482	97	14	5	10	35	208	3	30	12	201	260	313	573	112	316	39	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	597	553	116	16	4	10	33	230	2	37	17	210	257	307	564	98	323	39	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	484	450	102	17	3	6	26	178	2	23	14	227	272	318	590	91	353	37	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	87	77	19	4	1	6	9	23	1	2	0	247	333	558	892	312	298	26	10	394	153	+5	+0	-1	+2	+2	0.9
2019	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	559	514	93	19	4	22	40	221	2	22	5	181	243	362	605	181	257	40	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	114	105	20	2	1	5	9	42	0	3	0	190	254	371	626	181	281	37	8	287	81	-3	+1	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	238	217	42	7	1	12	20	87	1	5	0	194	265	401	666	207	283	37	8	302	91	-3	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.5
2021	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	213	197	32	9	2	8	14	76	1	6	1	162	222	350	572	188	213	36	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	200	174	31	6	1	2	23	57	1	5	1	178	278	259	536	80	256	28	12	248	54	-11	+1	-2	-4	+4	-1.2
2022	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	158	139	32	4	2	8	15	47	2	4	1	230	314	460	775	230	272	30	9	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	78	72	17	5	0	3	6	33	0	4	0	236	295	431	725	194	389	42	8	320	103	+0	+1	-0	+0	+2	0.3
2023	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	16	14	4	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	286	375	286	661		472	38	12	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	158	139	31	5	1	9	13	56	0	5	2	223	289	468	757	245	311	35	8	316	100	+0	+0	-0	-5	+3	-0.1
2024	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	305	277	62	12	4	9	25	94	0	13	2	224	288	394	682	170	296	31	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	61	51	10	3	1	2	10	23	0	2	1	196	328	412	740	216	308	38	16	315	99	-0	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.5
2025	31	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	414	379	79	18	10	11	29	137	1	15	1	208	267	396	662	187	287	33	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	262	236	52	9	6	5	22	79	0	12	4	220	287	373	660	153	301	30	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	—	262	222	68	13	8	7	36	55	0	12	4	306	403	532	935	225	372	21	14	403	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	527	482	97	14	5	10	35	208	3	30	12	201	260	313	573	112	326	39	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	527	461	123	23	5	17	56	150	3	30	12	267	350	449	799	182	357	28	11	351	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	597	553	116	16	4	10	33	230	2	37	17	210	257	307	564	98	334	39	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	—	597	536	161	23	7	21	50	154	2	37	17	300	362	487	849	187	384	26	8	369	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	556	517	118	20	3	7	30	205	2	25	15	228	273	319	592	91	360	37	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	556	499	135	24	5	11	48	166	2	25	15	271	337	405	742	134	382	30	9	329	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	646	591	113	23	6	28	49	244	3	24	5	191	257	393	649	201	264	38	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	646	577	152	33	9	42	63	187	3	24	5	263	339	570	909	307	313	29	10	390	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	114	105	20	2	1	5	9	42	0	3	0	190	254	371	626	181	259	37	8	287	81	-3	+1	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	114	105	22	2	2	6	9	42	0	3	0	210	272	438	710	229	281	37	8	311	81	-3	+1	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	505	464	84	18	3	23	38	183	2	11	1	181	246	381	627	200	236	36	8	278	74	-16	+2	-1	+2	+11	-0.2
2021	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	505	451	101	21	4	31	51	163	2	11	1	224	306	494	800	271	271	32	10	348	74	-16	+2	-1	+2	+11	-0.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	358	313	63	10	2	10	38	104	3	9	2	201	294	342	636	141	261	29	11	287	80	-8	+1	-2	-4	+8	-0.6
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	358	307	73	11	3	15	44	96	3	9	2	238	339	440	779	202	290	27	12	343	80	-8	+1	-2	-4	+8	-0.6
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	94	86	21	5	0	3	8	39	0	4	0	244	309	407	715	163	409	41	9	316	100	+0	+1	-0	+0	+2	0.3
2023	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	94	85	21	5	0	3	9	38	0	4	0	247	319	412	731	165	409	40	10	327	100	+0	+1	-0	+0	+2	0.3
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	463	416	93	17	5	17	38	150	0	18	4	224	289	411	700	187	299	32	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	463	402	109	20	6	24	52	133	0	18	4	271	355	530	884	259	340	29	11	378	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	475	430	89	21	11	13	39	160	1	17	2	207	274	398	672	191	290	34	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	475	412	114	28	13	19	57	131	1	17	2	277	366	546	912	269	356	28	12	391	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	262	238	52	9	6	5	22	79	0	12	4	218	287	370	657	151	291	30	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	527	484	97	14	5	10	35	208	3	30	12	200	260	312	572	112	316	39	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	597	557	116	16	4	10	33	230	2	37	17	208	257	305	562	97	323	39	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	556	519	118	20	3	7	30	205	2	25	15	227	273	318	591	91	353	37	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	646	589	113	23	6	28	49	244	3	24	5	192	257	394	650	202	263	38	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	114	104	20	2	1	5	9	42	0	3	0	192	254	375	629	183	281	37	8	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	505	460	84	18	3	23	38	183	2	11	1	183	246	385	631	202	250	36	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	358	314	63	10	2	10	38	104	3	9	2	201	294	341	635	140	263	29	11	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	94	86	21	5	0	3	8	39	0	4	0	244	309	407	715	163	403	41	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	463	422	93	17	5	17	38	150	0	18	4	220	289	405	694	185	301	32	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	475	432	89	21	11	13	39	160	1	17	2	206	274	396	670	190	290	34	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	463	422	93	17	5	17	38	150	0	18	4	220	289	405	694	185	301	32	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	475	432	89	21	11	13	39	160	1	17	2	206	274	396	670	190	290	34	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	COL	10%	457	414	94	18	6	18	38	136	2	21	4	225	294	422	716	197	287	30	8	314	99	-1	+3	+1	-5	+10	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	COL	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	7	0	1	0	242	309	468	778	226	307	29	8	338	99	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	COL	6%	310	281	61	11	4	11	25	94	1	9	2	215	282	400	682	185	276	30	8	300	89	-4	+1	-4	-3	+7	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	COL	6%	17	16	4	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	231	297	444	741	213	296	29	6	323	89	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	953	847	185	33	9	45	95	326	3	26	4	218	299	438	737	220	292	34	10	322	74	+5	+4	-6	-11	+21	1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	127	23	6	31	65	222	2	18	3	220	301	441	742	221	293	34	10	322	74	+3	+2	-4	-7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5145	4689	975	175	53	151	384	1809	18	210	66	208	270	364	635	157	298	35	7	278	74	+1	+6	-10	-17	+32	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	123	22	7	19	49	229	2	27	8	208	270	365	635	157	299	35	8	278	74	+0	+3	-4	-7	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 414 PAwOBA .393 → .289 (−104)K% 26.1% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷0.945	×1.200	—	—	33.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.87%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.08%
HBP% /PA	0.24%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.22%
Singles /BIP	19.76%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.971	×0.962	16.39%
Doubles /BIP	9.88%	÷1.029	×0.830	×0.971	×0.962	7.44%
Triples /BIP	4.74%	÷1.028	×0.970	×0.971	×0.962	4.18%
Home runs /BIP	6.72%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×0.962	4.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .393 → .289; ISO .277 → .199; BABIP .361 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 305 PAwOBA .390 → .293 (−97)K% 25.2% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.25%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	30.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.46%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.21%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.46%	÷0.990	×0.930	×0.980	×0.972	20.10%
Doubles /BIP	8.02%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.980	×0.972	6.42%
Triples /BIP	2.67%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.980	×0.972	2.15%
Home runs /BIP	7.49%	÷1.096	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .390 → .293; ISO .254 → .173; BABIP .352 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 16 PAwOBA .349 → .295 (−54)K% 31.2% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.25%	÷1.005	×1.200	—	—	37.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×0.982	12.74%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	50.00%	÷0.968	×0.930	—	×0.982	47.15%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.933	×0.830	—	×0.982	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.999	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 100, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .349 → .295; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .500 → .472. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 158 PAwOBA .448 → .336 (−112)K% 24.7% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.68%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	29.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.29%	÷0.945	×0.690	—	×0.992	9.63%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.18%
Singles /BIP	22.34%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.987	×0.992	19.44%
Doubles /BIP	5.32%	÷1.038	×0.830	×0.987	×0.992	4.16%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.987	×0.992	1.76%
Home runs /BIP	13.83%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.992	9.05%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .448 → .336; ISO .361 → .246; BABIP .337 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 213 PAwOBA .363 → .250 (−114)K% 28.6% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.64%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	35.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.86%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.61%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.44%
Singles /BIP	13.39%	÷1.110	×0.930	×0.981	×1.003	11.03%
Doubles /BIP	9.45%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.981	×1.003	7.80%
Triples /BIP	1.57%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.981	×1.003	1.24%
Home runs /BIP	11.02%	÷1.172	×0.700	—	×1.003	6.60%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 122, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .363 → .250; ISO .309 → .195; BABIP .272 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 559 PAwOBA .375 → .262 (−113)K% 29.3% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.34%	÷0.957	×1.290	—	—	39.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.48%	÷0.974	×0.710	—	×1.033	7.14%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.36%
Singles /BIP	17.86%	÷0.974	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	16.20%
Doubles /BIP	8.63%	÷1.071	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	6.41%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	10.42%	÷1.136	×0.780	—	×1.033	7.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 91, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .375 → .262; ISO .296 → .186; BABIP .316 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAHartford Yard Goats · 484 PAwOBA .310 → .260 (−51)K% 31.2% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.20%	÷1.035	×1.220	—	—	36.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.06%	÷1.051	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.43%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.36%
Singles /BIP	28.17%	÷1.011	×0.970	×1.004	×1.012	27.47%
Doubles /BIP	7.75%	÷1.081	×0.860	×1.004	×1.012	6.26%
Triples /BIP	1.06%	÷0.948	×0.950	×1.004	×1.012	1.08%
Home runs /BIP	3.17%	÷1.194	×0.780	—	×1.012	2.10%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 90, K 107, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .310 → .260; ISO .126 → .094; BABIP .379 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 597 PAwOBA .361 → .247 (−113)K% 25.8% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.80%	÷0.897	×1.340	—	—	38.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.04%	÷1.017	×0.710	—	×0.998	5.60%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	0.26%
Singles /BIP	28.80%	÷1.004	×0.910	×0.989	×0.998	25.76%
Doubles /BIP	6.02%	÷1.039	×0.820	×0.989	×0.998	4.69%
Triples /BIP	1.83%	÷1.136	×0.760	×0.989	×0.998	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	5.50%	÷1.600	×0.920	—	×0.998	3.15%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 220, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 127, K 79, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .361 → .247; ISO .187 → .103; BABIP .384 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	1.5	977	46	28	219	297	438	-10	-6	2.6	2.9
/162	664	31	19	-7.1	-4.1	1.7	pk7: 3
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Brian Hunter'91-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,742 PA	2.6	1,742	67	4	226*	288*	432*	-29	+4	0.1	0.8
/162	664	26	2	-11.1	+1.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#6Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sam Hilliard (OGILVIE)	33	35	60	60	50	223/291/418	195	287	9	11	30%	8%	99	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dewayne Wise 2009 · MLB	31	48→40	52→60	59→55	42	244/292/424	180	286	19	25	22%	5%	99	+1.3	237/278/395	158	286	14	20	22%	4%	87	+0.4	238/273/396	158	291	16	27	24%	4%	84	+0.1
✕George Lombard 2007 · MLB	31	44→43	50	59→55	43	222/292/377	155	300	17	25	31%	8%	88	+0.5	222/287/356	134	315	14	23	32%	7%	82	-0.0	210/274/313	104	298	12	32	32%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Dylan Moore 2024 · MLB	31	43→49	52→55	55→65	50	217/320/390	173	294	19	29	31%	10%	103	+1.5	206/299/361	155	279	16	32	30%	10%	88	+0.5	189/278/324	136	257	15	36	31%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Mark Little 2006 · MLB	34	42	51→55	52→55	40	219/289/380	161	284	19	19	30%	6%	89	+0.5	226/308/346	120	311	11	15	29%	7%	88	+0.5	221/318/307	86	323	4	13	29%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Michael A. Taylor 2024 · MLB	33	46→54	52→55	51→60	43	238/296/400	161	303	22	14	29%	7%	95	+1.0	212/271/361	149	296	17	17	33%	7%	77	-0.3	191/251/321	130	276	14	19	34%	7%	61	-0.8
✕Andy Tracy 2006 · MLB	32	50→45	54→55	50→45	52	246/335/426	180	329	21	14	30%	12%	116	+2.5	213/282/369	156	256	19	6	24%	8%	83	+0.1	219/287/395	175	259	23	5	25%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Jace Peterson 2023 · MLB	33	48→57	48→50	56→55	53	237/323/383	145	302	15	18	26%	11%	101	+1.4	217/300/331	114	276	12	17	24%	10%	81	-0.1	203/293/293	90	259	9	21	23%	10%	71	-0.6
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	48	53→55	54→55	49	247/321/422	174	290	21	21	23%	8%	109	+2.0	235/318/397	162	267	19	19	19%	9%	103	+1.6	203/292/360	156	229	17	21	20%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Seth Brown 2024 · MLB	32	42→48	60→65	50	47	231/295/445	214	270	28	9	27%	8%	106	+1.8	237/294/413	176	297	24	7	28%	7%	98	+1.2	229/286/392	163	292	24	6	29%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Brooks Conrad 2012 · MLB	32	45→43	52→55	53→50	46	232/302/400	169	296	20	13	28%	8%	98	+1.2	222/284/417	195	294	25	5	32%	8%	95	+1.0	180/239/337	157	233	21	1	32%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Ryan Langerhans 2012 · MLB	32	43→41	51→50	45→50	52	221/313/382	161	297	20	13	31%	11%	98	+1.2	202/287/347	145	293	16	9	34%	10%	80	-0.1	176/265/312	136	258	15	5	35%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Will Venable 2014 · MLB	31	52→55	53→55	61→60	45	262/312/449	187	310	19	26	22%	6%	112	+2.2	234/292/362	128	293	13	18	24%	7%	84	+0.2	215/277/310	95	275	9	16	24%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Abraham Almonte 2021 · MLB	32	41→51	51→55	51→55	53	212/295/384	171	256	17	13	24%	10%	91	+0.7	230/322/394	164	288	19	10	25%	12%	104	+1.6	215/313/373	158	268	20	8	27%	12%	94	+0.4
●Michael Tucker 2003 · MLB	32	49→51	50→55	54→55	54	247/324/411	164	288	16	21	20%	10%	107	+1.9	249/325/405	156	294	15	12	19%	10%	107	+1.8	247/327/398	151	289	14	8	19%	10%	106	+1.3
✕Cody Ransom 2009 · MLB	33	38→39	53→55	48→50	44	206/269/380	173	255	22	11	29%	7%	81	-0.1	212/273/380	168	268	20	10	28%	7%	82	+0.0	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Justin Leone 2009 · AAA	32	39	49→50	52→55	50	205/285/355	150	258	17	18	27%	10%	81	-0.1	191/261/317	126	270	13	13	32%	8%	63	-1.3	124/191/212	89	184	9	6	37%	7%	13	-2.0
✕John Hicks 2023 · MLB	33	40→50	53→55	49→50	35	216/253/385	169	288	21	13	33%	4%	76	-0.4	204/256/330	126	288	13	17	32%	6%	64	-1.3	155/214/229	73	228	6	27	33%	6%	25	-1.4
✕Midre Cummings 2005 · MLB	33	51	52→50	51→50	50	257/333/427	171	298	19	11	21%	8%	116	+2.5	237/300/392	155	296	19	6	26%	7%	95	+1.0	223/282/365	142	279	19	0	27%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Matt Carson 2012 · MLB	31	44→50	56→60	52→50	41	233/281/427	194	279	24	15	26%	5%	97	+1.1	225/271/362	137	293	15	13	28%	5%	77	-0.3	215/263/332	116	286	13	13	29%	5%	65	-0.9
●Reggie Sanders 2001 · MLB	33	46→51	51→70	56→55	50	235/300/402	167	272	18	27	21%	8%	97	+1.1	255/320/489	234	288	30	19	23%	8%	125	+3.2	260/326/511	251	289	33	18	23%	7%	133	+3.3

Sam Hilliard

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps