Seth Brown

LF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 35 L/L 6'1" / 223 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	32	AAAOAK	77	.403/.427/.736	7	2	149	—	.342/.360/.575
2024	32	MLBOakland Athle…	400	.231/.283/.379	14	4	91	-1.0
2025	33	AAAARI	161	.352/.416/.697	13	0	123	—	.260/.311/.493
2025	33	MLBOAK	76	.185/.303/.262	1	1	66	-0.7
2026	34	AAAScranton/Wilk…	208	.235/.327/.426	9	3	43	—	.168/.236/.293
2027PROJ10% MLB	35	MLBNYY	16	.224/.287/.396	1	0	87	-0.0
2028PROJ	36	MLBNYY	122	.212/.273/.369	4	1	76	-0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd64

Barrel%63

Avg EV62

Speed55

xwOBA50

CompsBrad Snyder (age 35) · Pedro Swann (age 35) · Chris Richard (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7787vR 90

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .287 / .396

PA16

HR1

K%31

BB%6

BABIP280

ISO200

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

210.228

POWER50

Barrel%

6310.2

Avg EV

6290.0

Bat Spd

6472.8

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

5527.7

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 470 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

442

—

wRC+

—

wOBA

290

292

—

ISO

111

140

▶▶R

BABIP

375

285

◀◀L

35.7%

27.4%

▶▶R

BB%

3.6%

7.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	23	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	23	20	4	1	2	0	3	2	0	0	0	200	304	450	754	250	222	9	13	327	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+	Stockton Ports	—	532	453	109	21	5	8	65	124	6	13	2	241	344	362	706	121	309	23	12	318	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+	Stockton Ports	—	579	518	140	18	7	30	56	146	1	7	7	270	343	506	848	236	318	25	10	369	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	555	502	142	38	3	14	47	142	1	5	0	283	345	454	800	171	365	26	8	351	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	83	75	22	8	2	0	7	23	1	1	0	293	361	453	815	160	423	28	8	361	129	+3	+0	+1	-6	+2	-0.1
2019	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	500	451	134	29	6	37	38	127	4	8	1	297	357	634	991	337	330	25	8	419	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	307	281	60	13	1	20	23	89	1	4	1	214	275	480	756	267	230	29	7	327	112	+4	+0	+2	-3	+7	1.1
2022	30	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	555	500	115	26	3	25	51	146	3	11	2	230	305	444	749	214	273	26	9	330	112	+8	+1	-10	-10	+12	0.2
2023	31	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	378	343	76	19	1	14	30	101	2	3	1	222	288	405	693	184	270	27	8	306	96	-2	+0	-6	-4	+8	-0.4
2024	32	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	400	372	86	11	1	14	25	112	2	4	2	231	283	379	662	148	291	28	6	295	91	-5	+0	-9	-5	+9	-1.0
2024	32	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	77	72	29	3	0	7	3	15	0	2	0	403	427	736	1.163	333	423	19	4	490	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB	Athletics	—	76	65	12	2	0	1	9	23	2	1	0	185	303	262	564	77	268	30	12	270	66	-3	+0	-3	-3	+2	-0.7
2025	33	AAA	Reno Aces	—	161	145	51	9	1	13	15	31	1	0	1	352	416	697	1.113	345	376	19	9	477	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	208	183	43	6	1	9	23	69	2	3	0	235	327	426	753	191	324	33	11	337	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1799	1636	371	79	8	74	145	494	11	24	6	227	294	421	715	194	277	27	8	316	100	-1	+2	-25	-31	+39	-1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	23	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	23	21	3	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	143	217	286	503	143	160	13	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	532	475	96	18	4	7	43	161	6	13	2	202	277	301	578	99	274	30	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	579	540	105	13	5	18	34	194	1	7	7	194	243	337	581	143	261	34	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	555	517	111	28	2	11	32	179	1	5	0	215	262	340	602	126	297	32	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	83	75	22	8	2	0	7	23	1	1	0	293	361	453	815	160	423	28	8	359	129	+3	+0	+1	-6	+2	-0.1
2019	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	500	462	99	22	4	24	26	166	4	8	1	214	262	435	697	221	262	33	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	307	283	62	13	1	22	21	89	1	4	1	219	275	505	781	286	230	29	7	334	112	+4	+0	+2	-3	+7	1.1
2022	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	555	503	116	25	3	27	48	146	3	11	2	231	301	453	755	223	273	26	9	334	112	+8	+1	-10	-10	+12	0.2
2023	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	378	344	76	18	1	15	29	101	2	3	1	221	285	410	695	189	270	27	8	310	96	-2	+0	-6	-4	+8	-0.4
2024	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	400	372	87	11	1	15	25	112	2	4	2	234	286	390	675	156	291	28	6	302	91	-5	+0	-9	-5	+9	-1.0
2024	32	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	77	73	25	2	0	5	2	18	0	2	0	342	360	575	935	233	363	23	3	388	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	76	65	12	2	0	1	9	23	2	1	0	185	303	262	564	77	268	30	12	266	66	-3	+0	-3	-3	+2	-0.7
2025	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	161	150	39	6	1	9	10	36	1	0	1	260	311	493	804	233	293	22	6	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	208	191	32	4	1	6	15	83	2	3	0	168	236	293	529	126	257	40	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	23	21	3	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	143	217	286	503	143	167	13	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	—	23	20	4	1	2	0	3	2	0	0	0	200	304	450	754	250	222	9	13	327	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	532	475	96	18	4	7	43	161	6	13	2	202	277	301	578	99	284	30	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	—	532	453	109	21	5	8	65	124	6	13	2	241	344	362	706	121	309	23	12	318	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	579	540	105	13	5	18	34	194	1	7	7	194	243	337	581	143	262	34	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	—	579	518	140	18	7	30	56	146	1	7	7	270	343	506	848	236	318	25	10	369	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	555	517	111	28	2	11	32	179	1	5	0	215	262	340	602	126	301	32	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	—	555	502	142	38	3	14	47	142	1	5	0	283	345	454	800	171	365	26	8	351	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	583	537	121	30	6	24	34	188	5	9	1	225	278	438	715	212	292	32	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	583	526	156	37	8	37	45	150	5	9	1	297	358	608	966	312	344	26	8	411	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	307	283	62	13	1	22	21	89	1	4	1	219	275	505	781	286	230	29	7	334	112	+4	+0	+2	-3	+7	1.1
2021	29	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	307	281	60	13	1	20	23	89	1	4	1	214	275	480	756	267	230	29	7	327	112	+4	+0	+2	-3	+7	1.1
2022	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	555	503	116	25	3	27	48	146	3	11	2	231	301	453	755	223	269	26	9	334	112	+8	+1	-10	-10	+12	0.2
2022	30	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	555	500	115	26	3	25	51	146	3	11	2	230	305	444	749	214	273	26	9	330	112	+8	+1	-10	-10	+12	0.2
2023	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	378	344	76	18	1	15	29	101	2	3	1	221	285	410	695	189	265	27	8	310	96	-2	+0	-6	-4	+8	-0.4
2023	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	378	343	76	19	1	14	30	101	2	3	1	222	288	405	693	184	270	27	8	306	96	-2	+0	-6	-4	+8	-0.4
2024	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	477	445	112	13	1	20	27	130	2	6	2	252	297	420	718	169	309	27	6	316	100	-0	+0	-9	-5	+10	-0.3
2024	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	477	444	115	14	1	21	28	127	2	6	2	259	306	437	743	178	314	27	6	327	100	-0	+0	-9	-5	+10	-0.3
2025	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	237	215	51	8	1	10	19	59	3	1	1	237	308	423	731	186	281	25	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	237	210	63	11	1	14	24	54	3	1	1	300	380	562	942	262	345	23	10	411	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	208	191	32	4	1	6	15	83	2	3	0	168	236	293	529	126	255	40	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	208	183	43	6	1	9	23	69	2	3	0	235	327	426	753	191	324	33	11	337	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	23	21	3	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	143	217	286	503	143	160	13	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	532	478	96	18	4	7	43	161	6	13	2	201	277	299	576	98	274	30	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	579	539	105	13	5	18	34	194	1	7	7	195	243	338	581	143	261	34	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	555	517	111	28	2	11	32	179	1	5	0	215	262	340	602	126	297	32	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	583	539	121	30	6	24	34	188	5	9	1	224	278	436	714	212	285	32	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	307	282	62	13	1	22	21	89	1	4	1	220	275	507	783	287	230	29	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	555	499	116	25	3	27	48	146	3	11	2	232	301	457	758	224	273	26	9	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	378	344	76	18	1	15	29	101	2	3	1	221	285	410	695	189	270	27	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	477	445	112	13	1	20	27	130	2	6	2	252	297	420	718	169	303	27	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	237	213	51	8	1	10	19	59	3	1	1	239	308	427	735	188	285	25	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	208	189	32	4	1	6	15	83	2	3	0	169	236	296	532	127	257	40	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	477	445	112	13	1	20	27	130	2	6	2	252	297	420	718	169	303	27	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	237	213	51	8	1	10	19	59	3	1	1	239	308	427	735	188	285	25	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	208	189	32	4	1	6	15	83	2	3	0	169	236	296	532	127	257	40	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	NYY	10%	265	242	54	8	1	10	19	77	2	4	1	222	284	385	670	164	279	29	7	297	87	-4	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	16	15	3	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	224	287	396	682	172	280	31	6	302	87	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	122	112	23	3	0	4	8	37	1	1	0	210	271	360	631	150	269	30	7	281	76	-3	+0	-7	-1	+3	-0.9
2028	36	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	122	112	23	3	0	4	8	37	1	1	0	212	273	369	643	157	269	30	7	285	76	-3	+0	-7	-1	+3	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1921	1748	394	82	8	78	153	531	12	25	6	225	292	415	708	190	276	28	8	314	84	-4	+3	-32	-32	+42	-2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	133	28	3	26	52	180	4	8	2	225	292	415	706	190	276	28	8	314	84	-1	+1	-11	-11	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4720	4333	941	179	27	170	324	1418	28	65	18	217	276	389	665	171	278	30	7	292	84	-7	+3	-32	-34	+45	-2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	130	25	4	23	45	195	4	9	2	218	277	389	666	171	279	30	7	292	84	-2	+1	-10	-11	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 208 PAwOBA .328 → .232 (−96)K% 33.2% → 39.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	39.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.06%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	7.17%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.85%
Singles /BIP	23.68%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	19.67%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	3.90%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	7.89%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	5.19%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .328 → .232; ISO .191 → .125; BABIP .324 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 161 PAwOBA .463 → .350 (−113)K% 19.3% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.25%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	22.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.32%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.942	6.28%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.55%
Singles /BIP	24.56%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.950	×0.942	20.56%
Doubles /BIP	7.89%	÷1.069	×0.830	×0.950	×0.942	5.49%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷0.902	×0.970	×0.950	×0.942	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	11.40%	÷0.904	×0.700	—	×0.942	8.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .463 → .350; ISO .345 → .252; BABIP .376 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 77 PAwOBA .487 → .388 (−100)K% 19.5% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.48%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	22.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.90%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×0.952	2.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.974	×0.930	×1.014	×0.952	30.71%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.088	×0.830	×1.014	×0.952	3.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.014	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.28%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.952	8.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .487 → .388; ISO .333 → .226; BABIP .423 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 500 PAwOBA .412 → .298 (−114)K% 25.4% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.40%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	33.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.40%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.003	5.35%
HBP% /PA	0.80%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.79%
Singles /BIP	19.14%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.950	×1.003	16.12%
Doubles /BIP	8.95%	÷0.951	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	7.26%
Triples /BIP	1.85%	÷1.102	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	1.30%
Home runs /BIP	11.42%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×1.003	7.98%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 120, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .412 → .298; ISO .337 → .228; BABIP .330 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMidland RockHounds · 555 PAwOBA .344 → .265 (−79)K% 25.6% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.59%	÷0.968	×1.220	—	—	32.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.29%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×0.988	5.82%
HBP% /PA	0.18%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	0.15%
Singles /BIP	24.17%	÷1.050	×0.920	×0.971	×0.988	20.33%
Doubles /BIP	10.56%	÷1.041	×0.840	×0.971	×0.988	8.18%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.971	×0.988	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.89%	÷0.922	×0.800	—	×0.988	3.33%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .344 → .265; ISO .171 → .133; BABIP .365 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Stockton Ports · 579 PAwOBA .361 → .255 (−106)K% 25.2% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.22%	÷1.010	×1.340	—	—	33.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.50%	÷1.115	×0.710	—	×0.978	5.92%
HBP% /PA	0.17%	—	×0.790	—	×0.978	0.13%
Singles /BIP	22.85%	÷0.979	×0.910	×0.952	×0.978	19.77%
Doubles /BIP	4.84%	÷0.972	×0.820	×0.952	×0.978	3.80%
Triples /BIP	1.88%	÷0.900	×0.760	×0.952	×0.978	1.48%
Home runs /BIP	8.06%	÷1.397	×0.920	—	×0.978	5.19%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 96, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 102, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .361 → .255; ISO .236 → .151; BABIP .318 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Stockton Ports · 532 PAwOBA .314 → .253 (−61)K% 23.3% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.31%	÷1.035	×1.340	—	—	30.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.22%	÷1.065	×0.710	—	×0.988	8.04%
HBP% /PA	1.13%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.88%
Singles /BIP	22.80%	÷0.978	×0.910	×0.989	×0.988	20.73%
Doubles /BIP	6.38%	÷0.939	×0.820	×0.989	×0.988	5.45%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷0.990	×0.760	×0.989	×0.988	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	2.43%	÷1.066	×0.920	—	×0.988	2.07%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 98, K 107, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .314 → .253; ISO .121 → .100; BABIP .309 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKAZL Athletics · 23 PAwOBA .319 → .219 (−99)K% 8.7% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.70%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	12.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.04%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.965	7.80%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Singles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.965	4.40%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.965	3.86%
Triples /BIP	11.11%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.965	7.72%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.965	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .319 → .219; ISO .250 → .177; BABIP .222 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	2.9	1,937	79	25	228	291	420	-21	-34	2.9	3.0
/162	664	27	8	-7.1	-11.5	1.0	pk7: 3
#1Wily Mo Peñalast yr '11 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,827 PA	2.8	1,827	83	12	250	304	445	-12	-32	2.5	2.5
/162	664	30	4	-4.3	-11.6	0.9	pk7: 3
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Charlie Spikes'72-'80 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,232 PA	3.4	2,232	65	27	246*	307*	433*	-26	-16	1.3	1.7
/162	664	19	8	-7.6	-4.6	0.4	pk7: 2
#4Andy Kosco'65-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,102 PA	3.2	2,102	73	5	243*	278*	440*	-22	-12	0.1	0.8
/162	664	23	2	-7.1	-3.6	0.0	pk7: 2
#5Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Seth Brown (OGILVIE)	35	45	50	55	45	220/282/382	162	279	6	2	29%	7%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brad Snyder 2017 · MLB	35	45→51	53→55	50	42	233/290/402	169	315	23	8	33%	7%	93	+0.8	229/288/389	160	305	19	7	30%	8%	90	+0.6	208/270/377	169	270	21	0	30%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Pedro Swann 2006 · MLB	35	44	49→50	53→45	40	228/279/381	153	275	17	7	24%	4%	84	+0.2	233/280/364	131	292	12	11	24%	5%	80	-0.1	234/279/355	121	296	10	12	24%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Chris Richard 2009 · AAA	35	44→52	53→55	49→50	43	229/293/405	176	283	21	8	27%	7%	96	+1.0	223/287/395	172	269	21	4	25%	7%	91	+0.7	212/280/383	171	248	21	1	24%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Andy Tracy 2010 · AAA	36	41→45	53→55	48→45	48	218/287/387	169	254	22	6	24%	8%	89	+0.5	222/293/398	176	276	22	6	27%	9%	94	+0.9	216/291/396	180	268	22	4	28%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Brett Harper 2016 · AAA	35	46→51	54→60	46→30	44	242/303/406	164	299	24	6	28%	7%	99	+1.3	233/288/380	147	293	20	5	27%	6%	88	+0.4	223/276/357	134	277	19	0	26%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Kole Calhoun 2023 · MLB	35	40→50	51→60	44→50	44	213/281/367	154	270	20	5	29%	8%	83	+0.1	224/288/377	153	273	17	5	24%	7%	87	+0.4	220/284/378	158	258	16	0	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Kevin Barker 2010 · MLB	35	42→45	53→55	43→40	46	223/282/393	170	262	21	3	24%	7%	88	+0.5	245/309/400	155	286	16	4	19%	8%	100	+1.3	256/324/403	147	295	13	1	17%	9%	105	+1.0
✕Cody Ransom 2011 · MLB	35	40→39	51→55	48→50	43	212/270/375	162	264	19	8	28%	7%	80	-0.2	216/286/399	183	290	23	8	32%	8%	92	+0.7	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Cory Aldridge 2013 · AAA	34	36→46	53→55	46→45	37	199/249/364	165	280	23	9	38%	6%	70	-0.8	222/283/380	158	311	22	6	34%	8%	86	+0.3	233/302/395	163	303	25	1	31%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Kevin Pillar 2024 · MLB	35	44→54	56→55	49→55	42	237/280/424	186	265	24	10	22%	5%	95	+1.0	232/286/380	148	276	16	18	22%	5%	87	+0.4	228/292/374	147	273	15	23	22%	5%	89	+0.3
✕Brian Burgamy 2015 · AAA	34	46→47	53→50	46→50	50	238/306/407	169	279	21	7	23%	9%	101	+1.4	225/293/352	127	292	13	7	26%	8%	83	+0.1	217/288/324	107	289	10	6	27%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Juan Diaz 2008 · AAA	34	45	52→60	48→30	42	235/286/401	166	286	20	8	26%	6%	92	+0.7	232/284/373	141	290	16	8	25%	6%	84	+0.2	226/271/366	141	267	19	0	23%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Mike Coolbaugh 2006 · AAA	34	41→39	52→55	53→50	41	218/266/379	160	262	21	10	26%	6%	79	-0.2	211/277/349	138	265	16	9	26%	7%	77	-0.3	171/258/278	106	213	13	4	26%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Michael A. Taylor 2024 · MLB	33	46→54	52→55	51→60	43	238/296/400	161	303	22	14	29%	7%	95	+1.0	212/271/361	149	296	17	17	33%	7%	77	-0.3	191/251/321	130	276	14	19	34%	7%	61	-0.8
✕Emmanuel Valdez 2014 · AAA	35	41→51	50	47→40	43	212/283/363	151	291	19	4	33%	8%	82	+0.0	208/287/344	136	290	16	6	32%	9%	80	-0.2	193/279/309	116	266	14	4	31%	9%	68	-0.4
✕Felix Perez 2019 · AAA	34	46→54	50→60	43→50	43	236/290/387	150	283	18	7	24%	6%	90	+0.6	231/285/424	193	262	26	5	23%	6%	97	+1.1	216/269/426	210	229	30	0	22%	5%	93	+0.6
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2022 · MLB	34	49→54	53→55	46→45	46	254/308/422	168	300	23	7	24%	7%	105	+1.7	249/297/389	140	311	16	7	24%	6%	93	+0.8	266/311/405	139	325	16	4	23%	6%	103	+0.8
✕Mike Hessman 2012 · MLB	34	37→35	54→65	47→45	42	202/270/381	179	260	22	5	32%	7%	82	-0.0	189/243/375	186	238	26	3	33%	6%	71	-0.8	185/246/365	180	222	24	3	30%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Nick Martini 2024 · MLB	34	45→55	49→50	43→45	49	227/309/381	154	279	17	3	24%	9%	96	+1.0	217/296/357	140	263	15	3	23%	8%	86	+0.3	204/286/329	125	245	13	1	22%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Omar Ramirez 2006 · AAA	35	47	49→50	51→50	50	239/296/387	148	259	17	11	16%	7%	92	+0.7	244/302/370	126	272	13	11	15%	7%	91	+0.6	255/315/359	104	282	9	10	13%	7%	90	+0.2

Seth Brown

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps