Jake McCarthy

LF Colorado Rockies

Age 30 L/L 6'0" / 213 lbs MLB HR +30%H +12% Svc 4.721 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	MLBARI	495	.285/.351/.400	8	25	106	2.2
2025	28	AAAARI	237	.314/.401/.440	1	12	100	—	.271/.342/.374
2025	28	MLBARI	222	.204/.248/.345	4	6	54	-1.0
2026	29	MLBCOL	596	.291/.336/.475	15	32	107	1.7
2027PROJ	30	MLBCOL	440	.285/.335/.448	10	30	104	1.3
2028PROJ	31	MLBCOL	521	.281/.330/.437	11	28	100	0.9
2029PROJ	32	MLBCOL	506	.274/.323/.422	10	20	94	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.721First FA2029

2027Arb-2$7M2028Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed90

xwOBA53

Bat Spd48

Barrel%20

Avg EV10

Form.277/.324/.438 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .268/.317/.407

CompsMichael Bourn (age 30) · Greg Allen (age 29) · Sam Haggerty (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 87104vR 110

AVG/OBP/SLG.285 / .335 / .448

PA440

HR10

SB30

K%17

BB%5

BABIP324

ISO163

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

670.265

POWER40

Barrel%

204.4

Avg EV

1084.9

Bat Spd

4871.1

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9030.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%14%▲▲12% over 120 PA (60d) · proj 17%

BB%5%·5% over 120 PA (60d) · proj 5%

ISO.160▲.191 over 110 AB (60d) · proj .139

HR/BB2.4%·2.1% over 95 BBE (60d) · proj 2.6%

BABIP.307·.323 over 93 BIP (60d) · proj .305

SLASH.277/.324/.438▲proj .268/.317/.407

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 769 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

189

580

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

291

315

▶R

ISO

074

139

▶▶R

BABIP

332

287

◀L

18.0%

16.0%

▶R

BB%

4.2%

6.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.721 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+2.1	$17M	+$10M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$20M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	214	195	54	13	3	2	17	52	2	18	2	277	341	405	746	128	369	24	8	335	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	74	68	18	4	1	1	6	20	0	4	0	265	324	397	721	132	362	27	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	70	59	13	3	0	2	8	23	2	3	2	220	333	373	706	153	324	33	11	319	100	-0	-0	-0	+2	+2	0.3
2021	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	212	191	50	6	7	9	20	49	0	12	3	262	332	508	840	246	306	23	9	363	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	156	137	33	8	4	6	17	46	2	17	1	241	333	489	822	248	318	29	11	360	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	354	321	91	16	3	8	23	76	6	23	3	283	343	427	770	143	349	21	6	340	111	+5	+3	-2	-6	+8	0.8
2022	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	165	141	52	11	3	5	19	22	4	11	4	369	457	596	1.053	227	412	13	12	457	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	312	276	67	7	5	2	26	62	5	26	4	243	319	326	645	83	305	20	8	292	78	-8	+4	-3	-6	+7	-0.7
2023	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	221	197	71	13	3	9	17	29	4	15	4	360	422	594	1.016	234	383	13	8	438	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	442	126	13	7	8	31	78	14	25	6	285	351	400	752	115	329	16	6	334	106	+4	+3	+3	+2	+11	2.2
2025	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	222	206	42	7	5	4	10	40	2	6	0	204	248	345	592	141	233	18	5	258	54	-12	+1	+1	-5	+5	-1.0
2025	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	237	207	65	15	4	1	24	33	6	12	3	314	401	440	840	126	370	14	10	378	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	596	547	159	30	13	15	30	95	8	32	6	291	336	475	811	185	326	16	5	351	107	+5	+4	+1	-6	+13	1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2049	1851	498	76	33	39	128	374	37	115	21	269	329	409	738	140	317	18	6	325	106	+14	+15	-1	-19	+44	5.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	22	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	214	200	41	8	2	2	12	71	2	18	2	205	257	295	552	90	309	33	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	70	59	13	3	0	2	8	23	2	3	2	220	333	373	706	153	324	33	11	315	100	-0	-0	-0	+2	+2	0.3
2021	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	212	196	44	5	6	7	15	59	0	12	3	224	280	418	698	194	280	28	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	156	142	27	7	4	3	12	59	2	17	1	190	263	359	622	169	297	38	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	354	321	88	14	2	8	23	76	6	23	3	274	334	405	739	131	349	21	6	333	111	+5	+3	-2	-6	+8	0.8
2022	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	165	147	50	10	3	4	13	26	4	11	4	340	409	531	939	190	386	16	8	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	312	276	65	6	4	2	26	62	5	26	4	236	313	308	621	72	305	20	8	283	78	-8	+4	-3	-6	+7	-0.7
2023	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	221	203	64	11	3	6	11	37	4	15	4	315	362	488	850	172	347	17	5	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	443	124	12	6	8	30	78	14	25	6	280	345	388	733	108	329	16	6	325	106	+4	+3	+3	+2	+11	2.2
2025	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	222	206	40	6	4	4	10	40	2	6	0	194	239	320	559	126	233	18	5	248	54	-12	+1	+1	-5	+5	-1.0
2025	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	237	214	58	11	4	1	17	39	6	12	3	271	342	374	716	103	327	16	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	596	549	149	29	9	13	29	95	8	32	6	271	317	428	745	157	326	16	5	327	107	+5	+4	+1	-6	+13	1.7
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	288	269	55	11	3	2	17	96	2	22	2	204	257	290	547	86	310	33	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	288	263	72	17	4	3	23	72	2	22	2	274	337	403	740	129	367	25	8	332	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	438	397	83	14	10	12	35	142	4	32	6	209	280	385	665	176	291	32	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	438	387	96	17	11	17	45	118	4	32	6	248	333	481	813	233	312	27	10	355	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	519	468	137	24	5	12	36	102	10	34	7	293	356	442	798	150	352	20	7	353	125	+15	+4	-2	-6	+11	2.3
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	519	462	143	27	6	13	42	98	10	34	7	310	379	478	858	169	369	19	8	377	125	+15	+4	-2	-6	+11	2.3
2023	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	533	479	130	17	7	9	37	99	9	41	8	271	335	392	728	121	323	19	7	317	101	+1	+5	-3	-6	+12	0.8
2023	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	533	473	138	20	8	11	43	91	9	41	8	292	362	438	800	146	339	17	8	352	101	+1	+5	-3	-6	+12	0.8
2024	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	443	124	12	6	8	30	78	14	25	6	280	345	388	733	108	322	16	6	325	106	+4	+3	+3	+2	+11	2.2
2024	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	442	126	13	7	8	31	78	14	25	6	285	351	400	752	115	329	16	6	334	106	+4	+3	+3	+2	+11	2.2
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	459	420	98	18	8	5	27	79	8	18	3	233	292	350	642	117	276	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	459	413	107	22	9	5	34	73	8	18	3	259	327	392	720	133	304	16	7	320	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	596	549	149	29	9	13	29	95	8	32	6	271	317	428	745	157	305	16	5	327	107	+5	+4	+1	-6	+13	1.7
2026	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	596	547	159	30	13	15	30	95	8	32	6	291	336	475	811	185	326	16	5	351	107	+5	+4	+1	-6	+13	1.7
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	288	267	55	11	3	2	17	96	2	22	2	206	257	292	549	86	309	33	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	438	396	83	14	10	12	35	142	4	32	6	210	280	386	666	177	293	32	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	519	468	137	24	5	12	36	102	10	34	7	293	356	442	798	150	361	20	7	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	533	482	130	17	7	9	37	99	9	41	8	270	335	390	725	120	323	19	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	448	124	12	6	8	30	78	14	25	6	277	345	384	729	107	329	16	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	459	421	98	18	8	5	27	79	8	18	3	233	292	349	641	116	282	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	596	554	149	29	9	13	29	95	8	32	6	269	317	424	742	155	326	16	5	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	448	124	12	6	8	30	78	14	25	6	277	345	384	729	107	329	16	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	459	421	98	18	8	5	27	79	8	18	3	233	292	349	641	116	282	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	596	554	149	29	9	13	29	95	8	32	6	269	317	424	742	155	326	16	5	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	COL	100%	516	475	127	20	8	10	28	86	8	35	5	268	319	407	726	139	305	17	5	321	104	+2	+5	+3	-6	+11	2.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	COL	100%	440	406	116	18	9	10	24	73	7	30	5	285	335	448	783	163	324	17	5	344	104	+2	+4	+2	-5	+10	1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	COL	100%	521	480	127	20	7	10	28	88	8	28	5	264	314	397	711	134	302	17	5	315	100	-0	+4	-0	-6	+11	0.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	COL	100%	506	468	121	19	7	9	26	88	7	20	4	258	307	384	692	126	298	17	5	307	94	-4	+2	-1	-5	+11	0.3
2030	33	MLB MLE	COL	100%	362	336	84	12	5	6	18	65	5	9	2	251	299	369	668	118	293	18	5	297	87	-5	+1	-2	-4	+8	-0.3
2031	34	MLB MLE	COL	100%	303	281	68	10	4	4	15	57	4	4	1	242	289	350	639	108	287	19	5	285	79	-8	+0	-3	-3	+7	-0.7
2028	31	MLB CTX	COL	100%	521	480	136	21	11	11	28	88	8	28	5	281	330	437	767	156	321	17	5	337	100	-0	+4	-0	-6	+11	0.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	COL	100%	506	468	128	19	10	10	26	88	7	20	4	274	323	422	745	148	317	17	5	328	94	-4	+2	-1	-5	+11	0.3
2030	33	MLB CTX	COL	100%	362	336	89	13	7	6	18	65	5	9	2	267	314	405	719	139	311	18	5	318	87	-5	+1	-2	-4	+8	-0.3
2031	34	MLB CTX	COL	100%	303	281	73	10	6	5	15	57	4	4	1	257	303	385	688	128	304	19	5	305	79	-8	+0	-3	-3	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3741	3416	924	139	67	71	215	672	61	176	33	270	325	413	738	142	317	18	6	325	96	-3	+22	-8	-37	+81	5.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	160	24	12	12	37	117	11	31	6	269	324	411	735	141	316	18	6	325	96	-0	+4	-1	-6	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5460	4996	1284	203	77	99	322	1062	86	295	55	257	313	388	701	131	307	19	6	309	96	-1	+26	-6	-42	+91	6.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	153	24	9	12	38	126	10	35	7	257	312	388	700	131	307	19	6	309	96	-0	+4	-1	-7	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 237 PAwOBA .369 → .316 (−53)K% 13.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.92%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	16.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.13%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.19%
HBP% /PA	2.53%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.36%
Singles /BIP	25.86%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.985	×0.992	23.64%
Doubles /BIP	8.62%	÷1.069	×0.830	×0.985	×0.992	6.54%
Triples /BIP	2.30%	÷0.902	×0.970	×0.985	×0.992	2.42%
Home runs /BIP	0.57%	÷0.904	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.44%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .369 → .316; ISO .126 → .108; BABIP .370 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 221 PAwOBA .431 → .365 (−66)K% 13.1% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.12%	÷0.951	×1.200	—	—	16.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.93%
HBP% /PA	1.81%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.73%
Singles /BIP	27.38%	÷1.026	×0.930	×1.030	×1.018	26.03%
Doubles /BIP	7.74%	÷1.059	×0.830	×1.030	×1.018	6.36%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.030	×1.018	1.58%
Home runs /BIP	5.36%	÷1.012	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .431 → .365; ISO .234 → .179; BABIP .383 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 165 PAwOBA .445 → .396 (−50)K% 13.3% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.33%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	15.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.52%	÷1.020	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.05%
HBP% /PA	2.42%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.35%
Singles /BIP	27.73%	÷1.025	×0.930	×1.031	×1.033	26.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.24%	÷0.996	×0.830	×1.031	×1.033	8.21%
Triples /BIP	2.52%	÷1.100	×0.970	×1.031	×1.033	2.37%
Home runs /BIP	4.20%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×1.033	3.15%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .445 → .396; ISO .227 → .193; BABIP .412 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAReno Aces · 212 PAwOBA .355 → .295 (−60)K% 23.1% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.11%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	27.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.43%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.72%	÷1.047	×0.930	×1.035	×1.048	18.98%
Doubles /BIP	4.23%	÷1.096	×0.830	×1.035	×1.048	3.47%
Triples /BIP	4.93%	÷1.113	×0.920	×1.035	×1.048	4.42%
Home runs /BIP	6.34%	÷0.958	×0.700	—	×1.048	4.86%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .355 → .295; ISO .246 → .194; BABIP .306 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 156 PAwOBA .350 → .270 (−81)K% 29.5% → 38.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.49%	÷0.946	×1.220	—	—	38.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.90%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×1.012	7.67%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	1.10%
Singles /BIP	16.48%	÷1.025	×0.940	×1.050	×1.012	16.06%
Doubles /BIP	8.79%	÷1.034	×0.870	×1.050	×1.012	7.86%
Triples /BIP	4.40%	÷0.945	×0.920	×1.050	×1.012	4.55%
Home runs /BIP	6.59%	÷1.271	×0.780	—	×1.012	4.10%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .350 → .270; ISO .248 → .177; BABIP .318 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Visalia Rawhide · 214 PAwOBA .326 → .242 (−84)K% 24.3% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.30%	÷0.979	×1.340	—	—	33.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.94%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.012	5.79%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.75%
Singles /BIP	25.17%	÷0.974	×0.910	×0.950	×1.012	22.60%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.148	×0.820	×0.950	×1.012	6.24%
Triples /BIP	2.10%	÷0.909	×0.760	×0.950	×1.012	1.69%
Home runs /BIP	1.40%	÷1.095	×0.920	—	×1.012	1.19%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 95, 2B 130, 3B 82, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .326 → .242; ISO .128 → .087; BABIP .369 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Taylorlast yr '25 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,909 PA	5.9	3,909	110	91	248	327	419	-9	+4	15.9	16.4
/162	664	19	15	-1.6	+0.6	2.7	pk7: 17
#2Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
/162	664	20	24	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#3Mike Davis'80-'89 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,298 PA	5.0	3,298	91	134	256*	313*	432*	-31	+13	11.4	12.4
/162	664	18	27	-6.2	+2.5	2.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	6.3	4,181	76	206	263	314	396	-30	-10	12.1	12.2
/162	664	12	33	-4.8	-1.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Billy Sample'78-'86 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,798 PA	4.2	2,798	46	98	267*	328*	405*	-26	-0	6.9	7.1
/162	664	11	23	-6.2	-0.0	1.6	pk7: 7
#6Billy Hatcher'84-'95 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,752 PA	7.2	4,752	54	218	261*	310*	385*	-20	-5	4.9	6.8
/162	664	8	30	-2.9	-0.7	0.7	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake McCarthy (OGILVIE)	30	55	40	60	45	266/317/404	138	305	9	30	17%	5%	104	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Bourn 2013 · MLB	30	58→62	40→45	64→65	51	274/338/379	105	342	6	40	21%	9%	105	+1.7	255/314/353	98	332	6	23	23%	8%	90	+0.6	245/305/328	83	322	3	19	23%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Greg Allen 2022 · MLB	29	53→57	43→45	62→65	46	251/340/370	119	318	9	34	22%	7%	105	+1.7	225/316/340	115	297	9	37	26%	7%	90	+0.6	203/292/312	108	273	8	40	26%	6%	73	-0.2
✕Sam Haggerty 2024 · MLB	30	52→43	47→50	65	51	253/329/405	151	309	13	37	22%	9%	108	+1.9	239/306/346	107	309	8	31	24%	8%	86	+0.3	222/285/300	78	299	5	30	25%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Jon Berti 2020 · MLB	30	53→62	46→45	60	48	259/328/392	133	322	12	32	23%	8%	105	+1.7	247/336/366	119	318	11	30	23%	11%	102	+1.5	268/335/372	103	335	9	39	21%	8%	103	+0.8
✕Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA	30	48→50	46→45	62→70	41	237/290/363	127	308	14	42	27%	6%	84	+0.2	249/310/375	126	320	13	71	25%	6%	95	+0.9	246/312/366	120	313	12	95	24%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Jacoby Ellsbury 2014 · MLB	30	58→68	47→55	63→65	50	284/336/426	142	314	13	37	14%	7%	116	+2.5	263/320/383	120	299	11	30	15%	7%	99	+1.3	257/317/368	112	291	10	27	15%	7%	96	+1.0
✕Nyjer Morgan 2010 · MLB	30	60→63	37→45	63→65	48	283/337/365	82	332	4	45	16%	6%	101	+1.4	266/324/352	86	317	4	29	16%	6%	94	+0.9	259/320/340	81	312	3	27	17%	6%	90	+0.4
●Scott Podsednik 2005 · MLB	29	55→64	44→45	66→65	53	264/329/389	125	297	10	47	15%	8%	104	+1.6	263/327/358	95	308	5	45	15%	8%	96	+1.0	289/340/382	93	329	6	34	13%	7%	107	+1.5
✕Tony Womack 2001 · MLB	31	55→63	42→40	65→60	48	262/303/378	116	286	8	35	12%	5%	91	+0.7	259/301/350	91	289	6	28	12%	5%	84	+0.1	268/313/347	78	300	4	25	12%	5%	88	+0.4
✕Corey Patterson 2008 · MLB	28	51→54	47→55	61→60	43	254/289/390	136	285	14	39	17%	4%	90	+0.6	233/269/362	129	274	13	28	20%	4%	76	-0.4	234/269/352	118	293	11	28	23%	4%	72	-0.5
✕Craig Gentry 2014 · MLB	30	56→55	39→40	62→60	50	262/336/357	95	311	5	35	17%	7%	100	+1.3	232/293/302	70	287	5	30	20%	7%	71	-0.8	218/282/291	73	279	4	29	22%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Rajai Davis 2011 · MLB	30	58→64	41→50	65→70	47	280/324/386	106	322	7	50	15%	6%	101	+1.4	256/301/371	115	307	8	52	18%	5%	89	+0.5	264/312/409	145	311	13	43	19%	6%	103	+1.2
✕Mallex Smith 2021 · MLB	28	51→61	41→45	65	48	242/308/351	110	307	7	40	22%	8%	88	+0.4	218/292/319	101	302	9	31	29%	9%	75	-0.5	197/280/280	83	292	10	40	33%	10%	58	-0.3
●Dionys Cesar 2007 · AAA	30	60→69	43→45	57→60	46	292/330/409	117	325	10	35	14%	5%	109	+2.0	283/331/397	114	320	8	28	13%	6%	106	+1.8	294/347/404	110	335	6	33	13%	7%	113	+1.5
●Donzell McDonald II 2006 · AAA	31	48→58	47→50	66→65	49	238/312/382	144	287	13	43	22%	8%	97	+1.1	245/313/379	134	306	10	35	22%	8%	96	+1.0	263/326/398	134	324	9	22	20%	8%	104	+1.2
✕Jason Bourgeois 2012 · MLB	30	57→58	38→45	63→65	48	270/309/352	82	300	5	44	12%	5%	87	+0.4	242/284/318	76	270	5	27	12%	5%	70	-0.8	241/275/316	76	274	5	14	14%	4%	64	-0.7
✕Alexis Gomez 2011 · AAA	32	55→59	49→50	60→55	48	273/321/418	145	312	17	34	18%	7%	108	+1.9	253/302/386	133	297	13	21	19%	6%	93	+0.8	248/288/374	126	286	7	13	16%	4%	84	+0.0
✕Jonathan Villar 2021 · MLB	30	52→60	47→50	58→65	48	255/320/390	135	325	15	34	25%	8%	101	+1.4	243/303/389	146	311	16	21	26%	8%	95	+0.9	240/299/387	148	306	17	20	26%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2014 · MLB	29	54→64	39→40	62→65	49	254/313/344	91	320	5	38	22%	8%	87	+0.4	248/293/327	79	312	5	31	21%	6%	76	-0.4	252/293/313	61	314	3	35	20%	5%	71	-0.5
●Eduardo Núñez 2017 · MLB	30	55→65	49→50	58→60	45	277/315/425	148	304	16	32	15%	5%	107	+1.9	272/303/406	134	296	14	22	13%	4%	99	+1.2	266/293/388	122	289	13	18	13%	3%	91	+0.4

Jake McCarthy

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps