Jake McCarthy — OGILVIE

Jake McCarthyCF Colorado Rockies

Age 29 L/L 6'0" / 213 lbs MLB HR +30%H +12% Svc 3.721 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION307 act + 204 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 93108vR 114

AVG/OBP/SLG.277 / .331 / .432

PA204

HR5

SB12

K%18

BB%6

BABIP318

ISO155

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.9%

xwOBA

490.308

POWER40

Barrel%

204.3

Avg EV

1084.7

Bat Spd

4871.1

EYE45

Chase%

9023.7%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 769 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

189

580

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

291

315

▶R

ISO

074

139

▶▶R

BABIP

332

287

◀L

18.0%

16.0%

▶R

BB%

4.2%

6.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.721 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.6M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.8	$13M	+$8M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+1.4	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$14M		$33M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A+	2 teams	—	288	269	53	9	3	2	17	98	2	22	2	197	250	275	525	78	302	34	6	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	2 teams	—	288	263	72	17	4	3	23	72	2	22	2	274	337	403	740	129	367	25	8	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	3 teams	—	438	397	78	13	9	13	35	149	4	32	6	196	268	373	641	176	275	34	8	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	3 teams	—	438	387	96	17	11	17	45	118	4	32	6	248	333	481	813	233	312	27	10	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	519	468	135	25	5	12	36	104	10	34	7	288	352	440	792	152	348	20	7	343	121	+12	+4	-2	-6	+15	2.4
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	519	462	143	27	6	13	42	98	10	34	7	310	379	478	858	169	369	19	8	377	147	+28	+4	-2	-6	+15	3.9
2023	26	MLB	2 teams	—	533	480	124	16	7	9	36	104	9	41	8	258	322	377	699	119	310	20	7	307	93	-4	+5	-3	-6	+15	0.7
2023	26	MLB	2 teams	—	533	473	138	20	8	11	43	91	9	41	8	292	362	438	800	146	339	17	8	352	128	+17	+5	-3	-6	+15	2.8
2024	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	442	125	13	7	8	31	78	14	25	6	283	349	398	747	115	326	16	6	325	107	+4	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.5
2024	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	442	126	13	7	8	31	78	14	25	6	285	351	400	752	115	329	16	6	334	114	+8	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.9
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	—	459	419	97	17	9	5	28	81	8	18	3	232	292	351	643	119	275	18	6	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	—	459	413	107	22	9	5	34	73	8	18	3	259	327	392	720	133	304	16	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	COL	—	307	279	84	18	6	10	18	54	3	15	4	301	350	516	866	215	339	18	6	366	138	+13	+1	+1	-3	+9	2.1
YTD	29	MLB	COL	—	307	279	84	18	6	10	18	54	3	15	4	301	350	516	866	215	339	18	6	370	141	+14	+1	+1	-3	+9	2.2
ROS	29	MLB	COL	100%	204	187	52	8	3	5	12	36	3	12	2	277	331	432	762	155	316	18	6	334	113	+3	+2	+1	-2	+6	0.9
ROS	29	MLB	COL	100%	205	187	55	8	3	5	13	36	3	12	2	294	350	449	799	155	340	18	6	347	123	+5	+2	+1	-2	+6	1.2
FULL	29	MLB	COL	—	512	466	139	26	9	15	31	90	6	27	6	298	350	489	839	191	340	18	6	358	132	+19	+3	+2	-5	+15	3.3
TOT	29	MLB	COL	—	511	466	136	26	9	15	30	90	6	27	6	291	342	482	824	191	331	18	6	353	128	+16	+3	+2	-5	+14	3.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	COL	100%	469	430	116	17	7	10	29	83	7	25	5	270	326	412	738	142	312	18	6	328	109	+5	+3	-0	-5	+13	1.6
2028	31	MLB	COL	100%	454	416	112	16	7	10	28	82	7	21	4	269	326	413	739	144	310	18	6	324	106	+3	+3	-1	-5	+13	1.3
2029	32	MLB	COL	100%	435	400	105	15	6	9	26	80	6	17	3	263	317	398	715	135	307	18	6	318	102	+1	+2	-2	-5	+12	0.9
2030	33	MLB	COL	100%	405	372	96	13	6	8	24	77	6	12	2	258	313	390	703	132	302	19	6	311	96	-2	+2	-3	-4	+11	0.4
2031	34	MLB	COL	100%	360	330	82	11	5	6	22	70	5	8	2	248	305	367	672	118	297	19	6	302	89	-4	+1	-4	-4	+10	-0.1
2027	30	MLB	COL	100%	469	430	126	19	8	12	29	83	7	25	5	293	348	458	806	165	335	18	6	341	119	+10	+3	-0	-5	+13	2.1
2028	31	MLB	COL	100%	454	416	120	18	7	11	28	82	7	21	4	288	344	445	788	156	332	18	6	336	116	+8	+3	-1	-5	+13	1.8
2029	32	MLB	COL	100%	435	400	112	16	7	10	26	80	6	17	3	280	333	430	763	150	329	18	6	330	111	+5	+2	-2	-5	+12	1.3
2030	33	MLB	COL	100%	405	372	102	14	6	9	24	77	6	12	2	274	328	417	745	142	324	19	6	322	105	+2	+2	-3	-4	+11	0.8
2031	34	MLB	COL	100%	360	330	89	12	6	7	22	70	5	8	2	270	325	406	731	136	318	19	6	312	97	-1	+1	-4	-4	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3781	3439	943	133	57	78	240	707	63	178	33	274	333	414	747	140	324	19	6	324	106	+27	+22	-11	-38	+107	11.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	162	23	10	13	41	122	11	31	6	274	333	413	746	139	325	19	6	324	106	+5	+4	-2	-6	+18	1.9
Career	—			—	5059	4610	1175	173	74	97	324	1042	81	267	50	255	315	388	703	133	309	21	6	309	95	-31	+33	-11	-41	+143	9.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	151	22	10	12	42	134	10	34	6	255	315	387	702	132	310	21	6	309	95	-4	+4	-1	-5	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	214	195	54	13	3	2	17	52	2	18	2	277	341	405	746	128	369	24	8	335	114	+3	+3	—	—	+6	1.3
2019	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	74	68	18	4	1	1	6	20	0	4	0	265	324	397	721	132	362	27	8	323	105	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2021	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	70	59	13	3	0	2	8	23	2	3	2	220	333	373	706	153	324	33	11	319	102	+0	-0	-0	+2	+2	0.3
2021	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	212	191	50	6	7	9	20	49	0	12	3	262	332	508	840	246	306	23	9	363	136	+9	+1	—	—	+6	1.6
2021	24	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	156	137	33	8	4	6	17	46	2	17	1	241	333	489	822	248	318	29	11	360	133	+6	+3	—	—	+4	1.4
2022	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	354	321	91	16	3	8	23	76	6	23	3	283	343	427	770	143	349	21	6	340	118	+7	+3	-2	-6	+10	1.3
2022	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	165	141	52	11	3	5	19	22	4	11	4	369	457	596	1.053	227	412	13	12	457	208	+20	+1	—	—	+5	2.6
2023	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	312	276	67	7	5	2	26	62	5	26	4	243	319	326	645	83	305	20	8	292	81	-7	+4	-3	-6	+9	-0.3
2023	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	221	197	71	13	3	9	17	29	4	15	4	360	422	594	1.016	234	383	13	8	438	193	+23	+1	—	—	+6	3.2
2024	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	495	442	126	13	7	8	31	78	14	25	6	285	351	400	752	115	329	16	6	334	114	+8	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.9
2025	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	222	206	42	7	5	4	10	40	2	6	0	204	248	345	592	141	233	18	5	258	56	-11	+1	+1	-5	+6	-0.7
2025	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	237	207	65	15	4	1	24	33	6	12	3	314	401	440	840	126	370	14	10	378	148	+13	+1	—	—	+7	2.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1453	1304	339	46	20	24	98	279	29	83	15	260	326	381	707	121	313	19	7	314	99	-2	+11	-2	-13	+41	3.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gary Matthews Jr.last yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,572 PA	11	4,572	108	93	258	331	407	-5	-10	16.2	17.2
	/162	664	16	14	258	331	407	-0.7	-1.4	2.3	pk7: 18
#2Ángel Pagánlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,465 PA	11	4,465	64	176	280	330	408	+4	-6	17.3	16.9
	/162	664	10	26	280	330	408	+0.6	-0.9	2.6	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	4,392	85	216	264	320	399	-28	-11	14.7	14.0
	/162	664	13	33	264	320	399	-4.2	-1.7	2.2	pk7: 13
#3Cameron Maybinlast yr '20 ASSS career totals — 13 seasons, 4,182 PA	13	4,182	72	182	254	322	375	+9	+6	13.1	12.8
	/162	664	11	29	254	322	375	+1.4	+1.0	2.1	pk7: 13
#4Gerardo Parralast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,290 PA	12	5,290	90	97	275	322	403	-51	+11	12.3	12.3
	/162	664	11	12	275	322	403	-6.3	+1.4	1.5	pk7: 12
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Alejandro De Azalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,819 PA	8	2,819	51	89	259	325	396	-6	-12	7.0	7.2
	/162	664	12	21	259	325	396	-1.4	-2.8	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake McCarthy (OGILVIE)	29	55	40	60	45	291/342/482	191	331	15	27	18%	6%	128	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Greg Allen 2022 · MLB	29	54→57	43→45	62→65	46	256/344/377	121	325	9	34	23%	7%	109	+2.4	231/322/352	121	305	10	37	26%	7%	94	+1.3	218/308/337	119	293	9	40	27%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Jon Berti 2019 · MLB	29	50→60	44→45	62→60	45	244/305/368	124	304	10	34	22%	6%	89	+1.0	255/337/382	127	325	12	28	23%	10%	107	+2.2	270/339/373	102	338	9	39	21%	9%	102	+1.0
●Eduardo Núñez 2017 · MLB	30	56→61	49→50	58→60	46	282/322/431	150	309	16	32	15%	5%	113	+2.6	271/303/404	133	296	14	22	13%	4%	98	+1.6	263/290/383	120	286	12	18	13%	3%	85	+0.4
✕Alejandro De Aza 2013 · MLB	29	57→61	44→50	55	49	276/335/407	131	329	10	25	19%	7%	111	+2.5	259/321/396	137	320	12	18	22%	8%	103	+1.9	254/319/394	140	316	12	17	22%	8%	98	+1.4
✕Sam Haggerty 2023 · MLB	29	50→44	48→50	62→65	46	245/314/399	154	314	14	32	26%	8%	102	+1.8	250/325/382	132	316	11	35	22%	9%	102	+1.8	241/319/357	115	310	7	40	23%	9%	90	+0.4
✕Jonathan Villar 2020 · MLB	29	52→60	49→50	59→65	47	259/322/410	151	329	17	32	26%	8%	108	+2.3	247/312/390	143	317	16	26	26%	8%	98	+1.6	236/299/369	133	306	15	25	26%	8%	84	+0.4
●Scott Podsednik 2004 · MLB	28	61→65	44→45	61→65	55	294/360/424	130	335	10	34	15%	9%	126	+3.5	266/332/371	105	308	7	48	15%	8%	101	+1.8	290/343/382	92	331	6	34	13%	7%	105	+1.7
✕Eugenio Velez 2011 · MLB	29	53→58	43→50	56→65	45	258/299/380	122	305	9	30	19%	5%	89	+1.0	246/292/364	118	308	9	27	22%	6%	82	+0.5	265/316/392	127	329	10	34	22%	6%	96	+1.1
✕Chris Duffy 2009 · MLB	29	51→61	42→45	58→60	48	246/306/358	112	293	8	28	19%	7%	87	+0.8	226/282/340	114	302	9	15	27%	6%	72	-0.2	228/275/341	113	323	8	16	30%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Andrew Stevenson 2023 · MLB	29	52→59	47→50	59→60	42	254/305/402	147	325	13	24	25%	6%	98	+1.6	255/308/393	138	329	13	36	25%	6%	97	+1.5	266/320/399	133	345	13	48	25%	6%	98	+1.0
●Grégor Blanco 2013 · MLB	29	51→60	41→45	60	55	240/324/346	106	306	8	31	23%	11%	92	+1.2	264/340/374	110	324	7	21	19%	10%	105	+2.1	276/352/384	108	333	6	19	17%	10%	106	+1.6
✕Roger Bernadina 2013 · MLB	29	52→62	46→45	56→60	49	254/320/383	129	305	14	28	21%	8%	100	+1.7	214/291/330	116	293	11	18	29%	8%	75	-0.0	221/290/331	110	319	11	20	32%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Mallex Smith 2021 · MLB	28	51→61	41→45	65	47	241/308/351	110	307	7	40	22%	8%	86	+0.8	219/292/321	102	304	10	31	29%	9%	72	-0.2	189/274/277	88	282	11	40	34%	10%	50	-0.3
●Rafael Furcal 2007 · MLB	29	59→63	46→50	60	57	287/353/430	143	312	12	31	13%	10%	125	+3.5	281/347/403	122	310	10	22	12%	9%	115	+2.8	291/360/430	139	325	11	20	13%	10%	123	+2.3
✕Alex Sanchez 2006 · MLB	29	61	39→40	54→65	44	291/320/378	87	335	5	31	15%	4%	97	+1.5	256/286/359	103	289	10	15	15%	4%	79	+0.3	288/312/375	87	312	8	20	10%	3%	90	+0.6
✕Tim Locastro 2021 · MLB	29	50→53	44→45	61→60	47	240/335/368	128	288	10	27	19%	6%	105	+2.1	210/291/332	122	257	12	24	23%	5%	76	+0.1	207/296/319	112	263	11	36	24%	5%	73	-0.1
●Charlie Blackmon 2016 · MLB	30	50→57	45→60	57→55	47	246/303/371	125	278	12	28	16%	6%	90	+1.0	266/332/440	174	298	19	17	17%	8%	120	+3.1	268/338/453	185	301	21	12	18%	8%	120	+3.6
●Chone Figgins 2007 · MLB	29	57→67	42→45	64→65	55	274/338/386	112	312	8	42	15%	9%	107	+2.2	289/366/380	91	343	5	39	15%	11%	118	+3.0	296/383/376	80	356	3	40	16%	12%	120	+3.1
✕Jacoby Ellsbury 2014 · MLB	30	58→66	46→55	64→65	51	282/337/424	142	313	13	37	14%	7%	117	+2.9	263/322/382	119	299	11	30	15%	8%	100	+1.7	256/319/366	110	290	10	27	15%	8%	90	+1.1
✕Cedric Mullins 2023 · MLB	28	52→54	51→55	56→60	50	260/324/425	165	297	18	27	19%	8%	112	+2.6	231/302/393	162	268	18	27	21%	9%	95	+1.4	217/294/381	164	251	19	30	22%	9%	87	+0.7