Dairon Blanco

LF Round Rock Express

Age 34 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAAArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	31	MLBKC	132	.258/.308/.392	4	31	99	0.3
2025	32	AAA/INTL2 orgs	333	.247/.325/.385	8	34	52	—	.192/.260/.294
2026	33	AAATEX	73	.230/.319/.295	0	7	47	—	.185/.264/.231
2027PROJ10% MLB	34	MLBTEX	12	.233/.296/.365	0	1	85	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBTEX	5	.223/.285/.344	0	0	76	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.7M2028Arb-3$0.7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Speed90

Bat Spd53

Barrel%40

xwOBA30

Avg EV10

CompsRajai Davis (age 34) · Justin Greene (age 33) · Freddy Guzman (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8985vR 72

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .296 / .365

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP287

ISO131

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT50

xAVG

100.218

POWER50

Barrel%

406.9

Avg EV

1085.3

Bat Spd

5371.7

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.6

Platoon Splits2024 · 132 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

145

◀◀L

wOBA

383

226

◀◀L

ISO

206

053

◀◀L

BABIP

362

263

◀◀L

20.3%

28.6%

◀◀L

BB%

7.2%

4.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	25	A+	Stockton Ports	—	346	313	91	13	10	1	25	66	2	22	2	291	346	406	752	115	359	19	7	331	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	100	86	27	6	1	0	13	18	0	6	1	314	404	407	811	93	397	18	13	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	469	427	112	20	13	7	37	137	3	33	13	262	325	419	745	157	370	29	8	329	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	INTL	Toros del Este	—	161	145	41	3	3	0	11	48	1	8	6	283	338	345	682	62	418	30	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	148	131	33	6	0	5	11	31	4	9	5	252	329	412	741	160	295	21	7	329	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	329	291	84	11	5	9	25	64	8	32	9	289	361	454	815	165	342	19	8	358	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	173	154	48	9	0	2	15	28	1	21	7	312	376	409	786	97	371	16	9	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	414	366	110	20	3	14	35	98	6	45	7	301	371	486	857	186	371	24	8	373	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	199	183	55	8	0	1	10	27	3	25	5	301	347	361	708	60	346	14	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	138	124	32	7	4	3	10	33	2	24	5	258	324	452	775	194	330	24	7	336	115	+3	+3	+2	-5	+3	0.6
2023	30	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	208	173	60	7	1	3	22	35	10	47	6	347	449	451	900	104	416	17	11	403	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	117	105	30	5	1	0	8	24	1	18	2	286	342	352	694	67	366	21	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	132	120	31	4	0	4	8	32	1	31	7	258	308	392	699	133	318	24	6	308	99	-0	+3	-2	-1	+3	0.3
2025	32	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	295	257	65	13	1	8	24	64	7	32	3	253	332	405	737	152	306	22	8	325	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	38	34	7	1	0	0	3	8	0	2	0	206	270	235	506	29	269	21	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	73	61	14	4	0	0	6	17	3	7	2	230	319	295	615	66	311	23	8	282	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	270	244	63	11	4	7	18	65	3	55	12	258	316	422	738	164	324	24	7	322	104	+1	+6	+0	-6	+6	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	25	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	346	322	79	11	7	1	17	91	2	22	2	245	287	332	620	87	326	26	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	469	438	84	15	10	6	26	174	3	33	13	192	242	313	555	121	295	37	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	148	134	27	5	0	3	8	38	4	9	5	201	267	306	573	104	247	26	5	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	329	299	73	8	4	7	17	75	8	32	9	244	302	368	670	124	297	23	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	414	377	93	16	2	10	24	123	6	45	7	247	302	379	682	133	324	30	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	138	124	32	7	4	3	10	33	2	24	5	258	324	452	775	194	330	24	7	339	115	+3	+3	+2	-5	+3	0.6
2023	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	208	181	58	6	1	2	14	42	10	47	6	320	400	398	798	77	394	20	7	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	132	121	31	4	0	4	8	32	1	31	7	256	308	388	696	132	318	24	6	314	99	-0	+3	-2	-1	+3	0.3
2025	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	295	265	51	10	1	5	17	76	7	32	3	192	260	294	554	102	243	26	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	73	65	12	3	0	0	4	20	3	7	2	185	264	231	495	46	274	27	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	446	417	102	14	9	1	21	117	2	28	3	245	284	329	613	84	332	26	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	446	399	118	19	11	1	38	84	2	28	3	296	359	406	765	110	367	19	9	338	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	630	585	112	20	13	8	35	233	4	41	19	191	242	311	553	120	301	37	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	630	572	153	23	16	7	48	185	4	41	19	267	329	400	729	133	382	29	8	323	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AA MLE	3 teams	—	650	594	137	18	5	14	33	154	13	62	21	231	286	348	634	118	288	24	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AA RAW	3 teams	—	650	576	165	26	5	16	51	123	13	62	21	286	358	432	790	146	340	19	8	349	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	613	559	138	23	4	14	35	182	9	70	12	247	302	377	679	131	336	30	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	613	549	165	28	3	15	45	125	9	70	12	301	363	444	808	144	361	20	7	355	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	463	409	121	18	6	7	33	101	13	89	13	296	367	421	788	125	375	22	7	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	463	402	122	19	6	6	40	92	13	89	13	303	385	425	810	122	378	20	9	359	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	132	121	31	4	0	4	8	32	1	31	7	256	308	388	696	132	314	24	6	314	99	-0	+3	-2	-1	+3	0.3
2024	31	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	132	120	31	4	0	4	8	32	1	31	7	258	308	392	699	133	318	24	6	308	99	-0	+3	-2	-1	+3	0.3
2025	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	333	300	59	12	1	6	19	86	7	34	3	197	261	303	564	107	254	26	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	333	291	72	14	1	8	27	72	7	34	3	247	325	385	710	137	302	22	8	314	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	73	65	12	3	0	0	4	20	3	7	2	185	264	231	495	46	261	27	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	—	73	61	14	4	0	0	6	17	3	7	2	230	319	295	615	66	311	23	8	282	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	446	420	102	14	9	1	21	117	2	28	3	243	284	326	610	83	326	26	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	630	586	112	20	13	8	35	233	4	41	19	191	242	311	553	119	295	37	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AA MLE	3 teams	—	650	599	137	18	5	14	33	154	13	62	21	229	286	346	632	117	281	24	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	613	564	138	23	4	14	35	182	9	70	12	245	302	374	676	129	324	30	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	463	414	121	18	6	7	33	101	13	89	13	292	367	415	782	123	368	22	7	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	132	122	31	4	0	4	8	32	1	31	7	254	308	385	693	131	318	24	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	333	304	59	12	1	6	19	86	7	34	3	194	261	299	560	105	243	26	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	73	66	12	3	0	0	4	20	3	7	2	182	264	227	491	45	274	27	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	132	122	31	4	0	4	8	32	1	31	7	254	308	385	693	131	318	24	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	333	304	59	12	1	6	19	86	7	34	3	194	261	299	560	105	243	26	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	73	66	12	3	0	0	4	20	3	7	2	182	264	227	491	45	274	27	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	TEX	10%	188	171	39	7	1	4	12	46	3	16	3	231	295	360	655	129	288	24	6	294	85	-3	+2	+0	-2	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	TEX	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	233	296	365	661	133	287	25	8	296	85	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	TEX	6%	83	77	17	3	0	2	5	21	1	5	1	222	284	339	624	117	281	25	6	281	76	-2	+1	-5	-1	+2	-0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	TEX	6%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	223	285	344	629	121	280	20	0	283	76	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	275	249	64	11	4	7	18	66	3	55	12	257	314	418	731	161	322	24	7	322	76	+1	+6	+0	-6	+6	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	151	26	9	17	43	156	7	130	28	256	314	418	731	161	321	24	7	322	76	+3	+15	+0	-15	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3540	3234	754	120	38	59	200	975	55	377	83	233	289	348	638	115	313	28	6	280	76	-3	+8	-5	-9	+10	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	139	22	7	11	37	179	10	69	15	234	291	350	641	116	314	28	6	280	76	-4	+11	-7	-12	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 73 PAwOBA .279 → .238 (−40)K% 23.3% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.29%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.22%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.34%
HBP% /PA	4.11%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	3.64%
Singles /BIP	22.73%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.035	×0.942	20.60%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.035	×0.942	7.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.035	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .279 → .238; ISO .066 → .056; BABIP .311 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 295 PAwOBA .317 → .246 (−71)K% 21.7% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.69%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	25.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.14%	÷0.935	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.71%
HBP% /PA	2.37%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	2.12%
Singles /BIP	22.28%	÷1.108	×0.930	×1.006	×0.952	17.90%
Doubles /BIP	6.74%	÷1.006	×0.830	×1.006	×0.952	5.32%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.006	×0.952	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	4.15%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .317 → .246; ISO .152 → .112; BABIP .306 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 208 PAwOBA .397 → .355 (−42)K% 16.8% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.83%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	20.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.58%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.89%
HBP% /PA	4.81%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	4.39%
Singles /BIP	35.51%	÷0.978	×0.930	×1.050	×0.972	34.46%
Doubles /BIP	5.07%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×0.972	4.30%
Triples /BIP	0.72%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×0.972	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	2.17%	÷0.942	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.57%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 96, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .397 → .355; ISO .104 → .084; BABIP .416 → .394. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 414 PAwOBA .368 → .294 (−73)K% 23.7% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.67%	÷0.957	×1.200	—	—	29.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.45%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.72%
HBP% /PA	1.45%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.34%
Singles /BIP	27.24%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.019	×0.982	24.96%
Doubles /BIP	7.46%	÷1.041	×0.830	×1.019	×0.982	5.95%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.019	×0.982	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	5.22%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .368 → .294; ISO .186 → .135; BABIP .371 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 329 PAwOBA .349 → .290 (−59)K% 19.5% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.45%	÷1.035	×1.220	—	—	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.60%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.968	5.14%
HBP% /PA	2.43%	—	×0.850	—	×0.968	2.00%
Singles /BIP	25.99%	÷0.980	×0.940	×0.981	×0.968	23.67%
Doubles /BIP	4.85%	÷1.117	×0.870	×0.981	×0.968	3.58%
Triples /BIP	2.20%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.981	×0.968	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	3.96%	÷0.957	×0.780	—	×0.968	3.13%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 107, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .349 → .290; ISO .165 → .129; BABIP .342 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 148 PAwOBA .320 → .251 (−68)K% 20.9% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.95%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	25.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.43%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.14%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.52%
Singles /BIP	22.00%	÷1.056	×0.930	×0.983	×0.992	18.89%
Doubles /BIP	6.00%	÷0.978	×0.830	×0.983	×0.992	4.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.920	×0.983	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.027	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.38%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 96, 3B 87, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .320 → .251; ISO .160 → .114; BABIP .295 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 469 PAwOBA .321 → .237 (−84)K% 29.2% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.21%	÷0.962	×1.220	—	—	37.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.988	5.45%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	0.55%
Singles /BIP	24.83%	÷1.083	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	19.80%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷0.986	×0.840	×0.950	×0.988	5.51%
Triples /BIP	4.48%	÷1.091	×0.940	×0.950	×0.988	3.62%
Home runs /BIP	2.41%	÷0.901	×0.800	—	×0.988	2.12%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 117, 2B 97, 3B 118, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .237; ISO .157 → .120; BABIP .370 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Stockton Ports · 346 PAwOBA .327 → .271 (−56)K% 19.1% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.08%	÷0.972	×1.340	—	—	26.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.23%	÷1.035	×0.710	—	×0.978	4.85%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.790	—	×0.978	0.45%
Singles /BIP	27.13%	÷0.978	×0.910	×1.030	×0.978	25.43%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.926	×0.820	×1.030	×0.978	4.70%
Triples /BIP	4.05%	÷1.006	×0.760	×1.030	×0.978	3.08%
Home runs /BIP	0.40%	÷1.244	×0.920	—	×0.978	0.29%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .327 → .271; ISO .115 → .089; BABIP .359 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Lew Fordlast yr '12 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	35	48	268	345	399	-10	+3	7.3	7.3
/162	664	13	18	-3.6	+1.1	2.7	pk7: 7
#3Miguel Dilone'74-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,182 PA	3.3	2,182	6	265	260*	315*	355*	-20	+15	4.0	5.1
/162	664	2	81	-6.1	+4.7	1.2	pk7: 6
#4Jeff DaVanon'99-'07 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,505 PA	2.3	1,505	33	59	249*	340*	389*	-12	+4	4.2	4.5
/162	664	15	26	-5.1	+1.8	1.9	pk7: 5
#5Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.4	286	7	56	255	310	416	-3	+1	1.3	1.3
/162	664	17	131	-7.1	+2.1	3.1	pk7: 1
#6Greg Briley'88-'93 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,670 PA	2.5	1,670	29	65	251*	309*	399*	-17	-4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	12	26	-6.8	-1.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dairon Blanco (OGILVIE)	34	50	50	60	40	229/293/357	128	288	3	10	24%	6%	85	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rajai Davis 2015 · MLB	34	55→64	44→50	63→70	45	269/314/392	123	311	11	48	17%	5%	99	+1.3	255/306/400	145	305	13	39	20%	6%	98	+1.2	244/300/388	144	298	12	44	22%	7%	94	+0.6
✕Justin Greene 2019 · AAA	33	57→62	44→50	59→60	46	275/327/394	119	340	12	42	22%	7%	104	+1.6	244/294/364	120	321	13	21	27%	6%	85	+0.2	250/289/346	96	332	11	21	27%	5%	74	-0.2
✕Freddy Guzman 2015 · AAA	34	55→61	42→45	72→70	48	266/317/377	110	312	10	66	18%	7%	97	+1.1	230/286/303	73	288	4	41	20%	7%	68	-1.0	225/285/278	52	284	1	50	20%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Tom Goodwin 2002 · MLB	34	51→55	41→45	65	53	245/314/347	102	295	8	42	19%	9%	89	+0.5	247/305/344	97	297	7	39	18%	8%	84	+0.2	252/305/328	76	305	3	51	17%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Rich Thompson 2013 · MLB	34	53→57	39→45	67→65	43	250/298/349	99	301	5	40	18%	5%	83	+0.1	231/285/322	91	290	5	34	21%	5%	72	-0.7	210/264/263	53	273	0	52	21%	4%	48	-0.9
✕Jon Berti 2023 · MLB	33	50→60	42→45	62→60	55	237/326/347	110	304	8	39	23%	11%	94	+0.9	263/324/370	107	324	10	29	21%	8%	98	+1.2	276/329/367	91	337	9	30	20%	6%	100	+0.5
✕Wynton Bernard 2024 · MLB	33	49→59	43→45	60	45	240/290/359	119	294	10	32	22%	6%	82	+0.0	232/277/340	108	287	10	30	22%	5%	74	-0.6	225/254/312	87	273	7	44	20%	3%	54	-0.9
✕Gilberto Mejia 2016 · AAA	33	55→58	39→40	63→65	45	258/310/356	98	310	5	40	18%	5%	89	+0.5	240/288/325	85	286	5	30	17%	5%	74	-0.6	237/281/304	68	281	3	31	16%	5%	63	-0.7
●Coco Crisp 2013 · MLB	33	53→59	47→50	67→65	54	261/320/406	145	281	13	44	13%	8%	105	+1.7	248/323/399	151	262	16	24	13%	10%	105	+1.7	240/322/384	144	253	16	20	12%	11%	101	+1.0
✕Jarrod Dyson 2018 · MLB	33	53→57	41→45	65→70	51	253/318/360	107	286	7	43	14%	7%	93	+0.8	224/300/316	92	260	9	35	17%	9%	77	-0.3	207/287/286	79	248	7	40	18%	10%	66	-0.5
●Donzell McDonald II 2007 · AAA	32	51→61	46→50	68→65	51	247/318/390	143	298	11	44	20%	8%	101	+1.4	251/316/382	131	316	9	28	22%	8%	97	+1.1	263/326/398	134	324	9	22	20%	8%	104	+1.2
✕Esteban German 2011 · MLB	33	51→59	38→45	61→60	51	240/310/324	83	289	5	37	18%	8%	82	+0.0	240/304/331	91	279	6	33	15%	8%	82	-0.0	250/313/330	80	284	5	38	13%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Justin Christian 2012 · MLB	32	51→54	43→45	62→65	48	245/296/359	115	273	9	33	14%	6%	85	+0.2	237/287/343	106	266	8	22	14%	6%	78	-0.3	231/281/333	102	259	7	17	14%	5%	71	-0.6
✕Dave Roberts 2006 · MLB	34	53→61	43→45	64→65	58	256/334/383	127	280	9	37	12%	10%	105	+1.7	265/336/377	112	303	5	38	13%	10%	103	+1.6	267/339/367	100	307	3	43	13%	10%	103	+1.0
✕Demond Smith 2008 · AAA	35	52→51	48→45	59→60	48	256/305/412	155	280	14	32	15%	6%	101	+1.4	235/303/348	113	277	9	32	18%	8%	85	+0.2	226/305/311	85	273	4	42	17%	8%	75	-0.4
●Luis Arredondo 2006 · AAA	34	56→66	38→40	61→55	49	265/306/344	78	287	5	39	10%	5%	84	+0.2	285/325/366	81	312	4	23	9%	5%	96	+1.0	295/336/371	76	323	2	19	9%	5%	98	+0.9
✕Eugenio Velez 2016 · AAA	34	53→60	40→50	57→65	44	255/298/349	94	312	7	31	20%	6%	83	+0.1	234/279/326	92	276	8	21	18%	5%	71	-0.8	240/287/311	71	284	5	21	17%	5%	70	-0.5
✕Willy Taveras 2016 · AAA	34	47→57	42→45	59→65	44	230/285/335	105	277	9	28	20%	6%	76	-0.4	243/294/349	106	295	8	21	20%	4%	82	+0.0	247/297/348	101	301	8	22	20%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Alexis Gomez 2011 · AAA	32	55→59	49→50	60→55	48	273/321/418	145	312	17	34	18%	7%	108	+1.9	253/302/386	133	297	13	21	19%	6%	93	+0.8	248/288/374	126	286	7	13	16%	4%	84	+0.0
✕Eric Young Jr. 2018 · MLB	33	49→59	41→45	58→65	45	236/293/333	97	285	9	32	20%	6%	78	-0.3	226/280/333	107	286	8	19	23%	6%	73	-0.6	217/269/317	101	278	6	17	23%	6%	64	-0.8

Dairon Blanco

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps