Jason Bourgeois

PosCF

B/TR/R

Born1982-01-04

Age (2027)45

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2016	34	AAA/INTL2 orgs	686	.282/.327/.361	3	22	67	—	.253/.282/.336
2017	35	AAA/INTL2 orgs	433	.275/.329/.346	5	5	70	—	.225/.251/.291
2018	36	INTLAguilas de Me…	129	.227/.281/.303	2	2	66	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015

Speed73

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	23	AAA	Richmond Braves	—	428	388	93	20	2	2	31	57	4	8	5	240	303	317	620	77	275	13	7	281	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	460	411	115	22	7	5	37	66	3	23	7	280	344	404	748	124	319	14	8	329	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	374	338	105	18	3	7	29	49	3	23	6	311	370	444	814	133	346	13	8	360	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	184	162	48	10	3	2	16	20	1	15	3	296	363	432	795	136	322	11	9	346	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	559	510	146	23	5	9	33	65	5	30	11	286	336	404	740	118	313	12	6	325	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	40	37	7	0	0	1	3	7	0	3	0	189	250	270	520	81	207	18	8	240	49	-2	+1	+2	-5	+1	-0.4
2009	27	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	454	424	134	18	6	2	22	40	4	36	7	316	356	401	756	85	344	9	5	337	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	136	123	27	4	1	0	13	16	0	12	4	220	294	268	562	49	252	12	10	263	62	-6	+1	+3	+2	+3	0.2
2010	28	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	261	235	81	10	3	5	21	28	3	18	6	345	405	477	882	132	376	11	8	391	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	171	155	46	9	2	3	13	18	1	8	3	297	355	439	794	142	319	11	8	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	MLB	Houston Astros	—	252	238	70	8	2	1	10	24	0	31	6	294	323	357	680	63	324	10	4	301	88	-4	+4	+1	+1	+5	0.8
2011	29	AAA	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	19	18	8	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	444	474	722	1.196	278	471	5	5	515	178	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	66	62	16	2	1	0	4	4	0	5	4	258	303	323	626	65	276	6	6	284	78	-2	-1	-2	+1	+1	-0.2
2012	30	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	247	222	54	7	1	3	21	24	2	7	5	243	314	324	639	81	262	10	9	291	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	18	16	3	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	188	278	375	653	188	182	22	11	294	86	-0	+0	-1	-5	+0	-0.5
2013	31	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	391	348	101	15	3	2	31	38	0	22	6	290	348	368	716	78	315	10	8	315	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	17	15	2	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	133	235	133	369		167	18	12	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	34	33	8	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	242	265	303	568	61	296	18	3	254	57	-2	+0	+0	-7	+1	-0.8
2014	32	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	600	551	153	29	3	4	40	51	3	24	9	278	330	363	693	85	299	8	7	311	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	212	196	47	5	2	3	14	33	1	3	1	240	294	332	625	92	275	16	7	282	75	-6	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.5
2015	33	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	60	55	17	2	1	0	3	5	1	1	1	309	356	382	738	73	340	8	5	328	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	483	449	131	25	4	3	28	45	1	19	5	292	335	385	720	94	317	9	6	320	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	INTL	Mexico	—	203	183	47	4	2	0	12	19	2	3	2	257	310	301	610	44	287	9	6	272	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	238	222	59	5	1	4	13	36	0	4	2	266	306	351	658	86	297	15	5	293	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	195	174	50	6	0	1	17	21	2	1	1	287	358	339	697	52	318	11	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	36	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	129	119	27	3	0	2	9	10	0	2	1	227	281	303	584	76	231	8	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	758	705	178	19	7	6	47	94	1	54	15	252	300	325	625	72	284	12	6	282	77	-21	+5	-1	-12	+16	-1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	23	AAA MLE	Richmond Braves	—	428	397	88	17	2	2	22	68	4	8	5	222	270	290	559	68	259	16	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	460	422	107	19	7	4	26	80	3	23	7	254	302	360	662	107	292	17	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	374	347	100	16	3	6	20	59	3	23	6	288	332	403	736	115	328	16	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	184	167	47	10	3	2	11	24	1	15	3	281	330	413	743	132	296	13	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	559	520	140	20	5	8	23	78	5	30	11	269	307	373	680	104	296	14	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	40	37	7	0	0	1	3	7	0	3	0	189	250	270	520	81	207	18	8	240	49	-2	+1	+2	-5	+1	-0.4
2009	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	454	432	121	15	5	2	14	52	4	36	7	280	309	352	661	72	310	11	3	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	136	123	27	4	1	0	13	16	0	12	4	220	294	268	562	49	252	12	10	260	62	-6	+1	+3	+2	+3	0.2
2010	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	261	243	73	8	2	4	13	38	3	18	6	300	344	399	743	99	338	15	5	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	252	238	70	8	2	1	10	24	0	31	6	294	323	357	680	63	324	10	4	298	88	-4	+4	+1	+1	+5	0.8
2011	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	19	18	8	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	444	474	722	1.196	278	414	5	5	432	178	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	66	62	16	2	1	0	4	4	0	5	4	258	303	323	626	65	276	6	6	284	78	-2	-1	-2	+1	+1	-0.2
2012	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	247	229	48	6	1	2	14	30	2	7	5	210	261	271	532	61	229	12	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	18	16	3	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	188	278	375	653	188	182	22	11	295	86	-0	+0	-1	-5	+0	-0.5
2013	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	391	361	93	12	3	1	18	46	0	22	6	258	293	316	609	58	278	12	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	34	33	8	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	242	265	303	568	61	296	18	3	252	57	-2	+0	+0	-7	+1	-0.8
2014	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	600	565	136	22	3	3	26	66	3	24	9	241	278	306	584	65	262	11	4	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	212	196	47	5	2	3	14	33	1	3	1	240	294	332	625	92	275	16	7	278	75	-6	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.5
2015	33	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	60	56	16	2	1	0	2	6	1	1	1	286	322	357	679	71	309	10	3	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	483	459	116	21	4	3	18	51	1	19	5	253	282	336	618	83	272	11	4	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	238	227	51	4	1	3	8	45	0	4	2	225	251	291	542	66	258	19	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	AAA MLE	Richmond Braves	—	428	397	88	17	2	2	22	68	4	8	5	222	270	290	559	68	261	16	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	AAA RAW	Richmond Braves	—	428	388	93	20	2	2	31	57	4	8	5	240	303	317	620	77	275	13	7	281	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	460	422	107	19	7	4	26	80	3	23	7	254	302	360	662	107	300	17	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	—	460	411	115	22	7	5	37	66	3	23	7	280	344	404	748	124	319	14	8	329	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	558	514	146	25	6	8	31	83	4	38	9	284	330	403	732	119	323	15	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	558	500	153	28	6	9	45	69	4	38	9	306	368	440	808	134	338	12	8	355	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	559	520	140	20	5	8	23	78	5	30	11	269	307	373	680	104	303	14	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	559	510	146	23	5	9	33	65	5	30	11	286	336	404	740	118	313	12	6	325	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	494	469	128	15	5	3	17	59	4	39	7	273	304	345	649	72	306	12	3	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	494	461	141	18	6	3	25	47	4	39	7	306	347	390	737	85	334	10	5	329	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	568	523	143	17	5	5	37	77	4	38	13	273	326	354	680	80	312	14	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	568	513	154	23	6	8	47	62	4	38	13	300	363	415	779	115	329	11	8	348	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	271	256	76	10	3	1	11	25	0	31	7	297	326	371	697	74	326	9	4	308	94	-2	+3	+1	+1	+6	0.9
2011	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	271	256	78	11	3	1	11	25	0	31	7	305	333	383	716	78	335	9	4	316	94	-2	+3	+1	+1	+6	0.9
2012	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	313	291	64	8	2	2	18	34	2	12	9	220	270	282	552	62	243	11	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	313	284	70	9	2	3	25	28	2	12	9	246	312	324	636	77	265	9	8	290	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	426	393	99	12	3	2	21	52	0	22	6	252	290	313	603	61	281	12	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	426	379	106	15	3	3	35	45	0	22	6	280	341	359	699	79	306	11	8	309	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	634	598	143	22	3	3	27	72	3	24	9	239	275	301	576	62	266	11	4	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	634	584	161	29	4	4	41	57	3	24	9	276	326	360	686	84	298	9	6	308	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	272	252	63	7	3	3	16	39	2	4	2	250	300	337	637	87	286	14	6	280	76	-8	+0	-4	+1	+6	-0.5
2015	33	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	272	251	64	7	3	3	17	38	2	4	2	255	307	343	650	88	290	14	6	292	76	-8	+0	-4	+1	+6	-0.5
2016	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	686	647	164	30	6	4	25	73	3	22	7	253	284	337	621	83	279	11	4	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	686	632	178	29	6	3	40	64	3	22	7	282	327	361	688	79	308	9	6	306	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	433	411	92	7	2	5	15	83	2	5	3	224	255	287	542	63	265	19	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	433	396	109	11	1	5	30	57	2	5	3	275	329	346	675	71	307	13	7	304	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	36	INTL MLE	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	129	119	27	3	0	2	9	10	0	2	1	227	281	303	584	76	231	8	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	36	INTL RAW	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	129	119	27	3	0	2	9	10	0	2	1	227	281	303	584	76	231	8	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	AAA MLE	Richmond Braves	—	428	399	88	17	2	2	22	68	4	8	5	221	270	288	558	68	259	16	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	460	428	107	19	7	4	26	80	3	23	7	250	302	355	657	105	292	17	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	558	518	146	25	6	8	31	83	4	38	9	282	330	400	729	118	317	15	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	559	526	140	20	5	8	23	78	5	30	11	266	307	369	675	103	296	14	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	494	470	128	15	5	3	17	59	4	39	7	272	304	345	649	72	302	12	3	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	568	522	143	17	5	5	37	77	4	38	13	274	326	354	681	80	309	14	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	271	258	76	10	3	1	11	25	0	31	7	295	326	368	694	74	330	9	4	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	313	290	64	8	2	2	18	34	2	12	9	221	270	283	553	62	239	11	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	426	402	99	12	3	2	21	52	0	22	6	246	290	306	596	60	274	12	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	634	599	143	22	3	3	27	72	3	24	9	239	275	301	576	62	264	11	4	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	272	252	63	7	3	3	16	39	2	4	2	250	300	337	637	87	283	14	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	686	653	164	30	6	4	25	73	3	22	7	251	284	334	618	83	272	11	4	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	433	413	92	7	2	5	15	83	2	5	3	223	255	286	540	63	258	19	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	758	705	178	19	7	6	47	94	1	54	15	252	300	325	625	72	284	12	6	282	69	-21	+5	-1	-12	+16	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	605	152	16	6	5	40	81	1	46	13	251	299	322	621	71	283	12	6	282	69	-18	+4	-1	-10	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6231	5812	1480	212	52	52	298	833	36	298	96	255	295	336	631	81	288	13	5	271	69	-21	+5	-1	-12	+16	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	606	153	22	5	5	31	87	4	31	10	252	293	330	623	78	286	13	5	271	69	-18	+4	-1	-10	+14	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 238 PAwOBA .289 → .235 (−54)K% 15.1% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.13%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	19.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.46%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.52%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.34%	÷1.012	×0.930	×1.019	×0.940	23.19%
Doubles /BIP	2.69%	÷0.958	×0.830	×1.019	×0.940	2.23%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷1.077	×0.970	×1.019	×0.940	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	2.15%	÷1.150	×0.840	—	×0.940	1.48%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 115, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .289 → .235; ISO .086 → .063; BABIP .297 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAACharlotte Knights · 483 PAwOBA .313 → .266 (−47)K% 9.3% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.32%	÷1.053	×1.200	—	—	10.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.59%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.66%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.18%
Singles /BIP	24.50%	÷1.031	×0.930	×1.021	×0.940	21.21%
Doubles /BIP	6.19%	÷0.974	×0.830	×1.021	×0.940	5.06%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷0.926	×0.970	×1.021	×0.940	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.74%	÷0.950	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.62%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .313 → .266; ISO .094 → .082; BABIP .317 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALouisville Bats · 60 PAwOBA .320 → .287 (−33)K% 8.3% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.33%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	10.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.00%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.942	3.18%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.48%
Singles /BIP	28.00%	÷0.999	×0.930	×1.038	×0.942	25.48%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷0.975	×0.830	×1.038	×0.942	3.33%
Triples /BIP	2.00%	÷0.922	×0.970	×1.038	×0.942	2.06%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.009	×0.840	—	×0.942	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .320 → .287; ISO .073 → .069; BABIP .340 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAALouisville Bats · 600 PAwOBA .304 → .256 (−48)K% 8.5% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.50%	÷0.926	×1.200	—	—	11.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×0.952	4.34%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.45%
Singles /BIP	23.40%	÷0.999	×0.930	×1.031	×0.952	21.39%
Doubles /BIP	5.80%	÷1.108	×0.830	×1.031	×0.952	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.031	×0.952	0.50%
Home runs /BIP	0.80%	÷0.928	×0.840	—	×0.952	0.69%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 85, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .304 → .256; ISO .085 → .067; BABIP .299 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAADurham Bulls · 391 PAwOBA .311 → .268 (−43)K% 9.7% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.72%	÷0.988	×1.200	—	—	11.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.67%	÷1.093	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.66%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.13%	÷1.032	×0.930	×1.044	×0.962	23.64%
Doubles /BIP	4.84%	÷1.113	×0.830	×1.044	×0.962	3.62%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷0.961	×0.970	×1.044	×0.962	0.98%
Home runs /BIP	0.65%	÷1.299	×0.840	—	×0.962	0.40%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 106, 2B 123, 3B 92, K 98, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .311 → .268; ISO .078 → .064; BABIP .315 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 247 PAwOBA .284 → .237 (−47)K% 9.7% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.72%	÷1.035	×1.290	—	—	12.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.50%	÷1.012	×0.710	—	×0.972	5.80%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.77%
Singles /BIP	21.72%	÷1.010	×0.900	×1.020	×0.972	19.20%
Doubles /BIP	3.54%	÷0.949	×0.810	×1.020	×0.972	2.99%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷0.998	×0.810	×1.020	×0.972	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	1.52%	÷1.001	×0.780	—	×0.972	1.15%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 107, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .284 → .237; ISO .081 → .066; BABIP .262 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 19 PAwOBA .501 → .432 (−69)K% 5.3% → 6.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	5.26%	÷0.979	×1.290	—	—	6.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.025	×0.710	—	×0.982	3.58%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.002	×0.900	—	×0.982	20.75%
Doubles /BIP	17.65%	÷0.885	×0.810	—	×0.982	15.86%
Triples /BIP	5.88%	÷0.974	×0.810	—	×0.982	4.81%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.934	×0.780	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 77, 3B 95, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .501 → .432; ISO .278 → .241; BABIP .471 → .414. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAARound Rock Express · 261 PAwOBA .378 → .321 (−57)K% 10.7% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.73%	÷0.954	×1.290	—	—	14.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.28%	÷1.077	×0.710	—	×0.992	4.76%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	1.12%
Singles /BIP	30.43%	÷0.990	×0.900	×1.033	×0.992	28.36%
Doubles /BIP	4.83%	÷1.068	×0.810	×1.033	×0.992	3.76%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.033	×0.992	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	2.42%	÷1.058	×0.780	—	×0.992	1.77%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 98, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 91, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .378 → .321; ISO .132 → .099; BABIP .376 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .