Nolan Jones — OGILVIE

Nolan JonesRF Charlotte Knights

Age 28 L/R 6'4" / 195 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 3.041 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION501 act + 199 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 5690vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.256 / .335 / .420

PA199

HR6

K%29

BB%10

BABIP342

ISO165

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

Whiff%

4811.1%

xwOBA

610.321

POWER45

Barrel%

6610.5

Avg EV

6189.8

Bat Spd

6372.7

EYE55

Chase%

6828.1%

SPEED50

Sprint

5227.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 700 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

177

523

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

237

294

▶▶R

ISO

038

113

▶▶R

BABIP

319

307

◀L

36.2%

26.8%

▶▶R

BB%

7.9%

11.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.041 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	-$0.6M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+2.2	$16M	+$9M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+1.9	$13M	+$5M
Totals		$19M		$30M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	134	118	18	3	1	0	14	71	1	3	1	153	248	195	443	42	375	53	10	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	134	109	28	5	2	0	23	49	1	3	1	257	391	339	730	83	459	37	17	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	2 teams	—	519	457	107	16	0	13	59	179	0	2	1	234	322	354	676	120	351	34	11	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	2 teams	—	519	427	121	21	0	19	89	131	0	2	1	283	407	466	873	183	364	25	17	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	3 teams	—	603	517	119	19	3	21	77	216	6	8	3	230	337	400	737	170	346	36	13	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	3 teams	—	603	490	129	24	3	19	104	179	6	8	3	263	398	441	839	178	373	30	17	377	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	407	361	78	23	1	10	39	146	5	10	2	216	301	368	670	152	329	36	10	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	407	341	81	25	1	13	59	122	5	10	2	238	358	431	789	194	327	30	14	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	342	306	81	14	1	10	33	103	1	4	1	265	338	415	753	150	366	30	10	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	342	300	80	16	1	11	39	95	1	4	1	267	353	437	790	170	354	28	11	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	611	525	134	28	5	23	77	188	7	25	4	255	358	459	817	204	351	31	13	353	128	+19	+3	+0	-7	+17	3.4
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	611	516	162	35	6	32	86	169	7	25	4	314	419	591	1.010	277	410	28	14	437	192	+64	+3	+0	-7	+17	8.0
2024	26	MLB	3 teams	—	402	349	69	16	1	6	45	133	4	5	4	198	296	301	597	103	296	33	11	269	64	-16	-1	-5	-4	+11	-1.6
2024	26	MLB	3 teams	—	402	343	82	20	2	8	51	122	4	5	4	239	344	379	723	140	343	30	13	326	108	+4	-1	-5	-4	+11	0.5
2025	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	403	355	75	14	2	5	39	113	5	8	3	211	298	304	602	93	292	28	10	271	66	-16	+0	-4	-4	+11	-1.2
2025	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	403	355	75	14	2	5	39	113	5	8	3	211	298	304	602	93	292	28	10	276	70	-14	+0	-4	-4	+11	-1.0
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	CWS	—	501	440	103	17	1	17	46	144	6	10	4	234	315	393	708	159	300	29	9	311	96	-2	+0	+0	-5	+14	0.7
YTD	28	AAA	CWS	—	501	417	109	19	1	20	69	120	6	10	4	261	374	456	830	194	312	24	14	365	137	+21	+0	+0	-5	+14	3.1
ROS	28	AAA	CWS	10%	199	176	45	9	1	6	19	57	2	4	1	256	335	420	755	165	335	29	10	332	112	+3	+0	-0	-2	+6	0.6
ROS	28	MLB	CWS	10%	20	18	5	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	278	350	500	850	222	336	30	10	326	107	+0	+0	-0	-0	+1	0.0
FULL	28	AAA	CWS	—	521	458	108	18	1	18	48	150	6	10	4	236	316	397	714	162	302	29	9	312	97	-2	+0	-0	-6	+15	0.8
TOT	28	AAA	CWS	—	700	616	148	26	2	23	65	201	8	14	5	240	321	401	722	161	312	29	9	317	101	+1	+1	-0	-8	+20	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	CWS	33%	660	584	149	29	3	20	64	190	7	12	4	255	336	418	754	163	341	29	10	335	115	+11	+1	-2	-7	+19	2.1
2028	30	MLB	CWS	46%	660	583	147	29	3	19	65	192	7	11	3	252	334	410	744	158	339	29	10	332	112	+9	+1	-3	-7	+19	1.9
2029	31	MLB	CWS	54%	660	583	145	28	3	19	65	194	7	10	3	249	331	405	736	156	336	29	10	327	108	+6	+1	-4	-7	+19	1.5
2030	32	MLB	CWS	58%	660	584	142	27	3	18	64	197	7	8	2	243	325	392	717	149	331	30	10	320	103	+2	+1	-5	-7	+19	1.0
2031	33	MLB	CWS	61%	573	506	120	22	2	15	56	174	6	5	2	237	320	377	698	140	324	30	10	312	97	-2	+0	-5	-6	+16	0.3
2027	29	MLB	CWS	33%	216	191	49	10	1	6	21	62	2	4	1	257	336	414	750	157	343	29	10	329	110	+2	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.6
2028	30	MLB	CWS	46%	303	267	67	13	1	9	30	88	3	5	2	251	333	408	742	157	341	29	10	326	107	+3	+0	-1	-3	+9	0.7
2029	31	MLB	CWS	54%	354	312	78	15	2	10	35	104	4	5	2	250	333	407	740	157	337	29	10	321	104	+1	+0	-2	-4	+10	0.6
2030	32	MLB	CWS	58%	383	339	84	16	2	11	37	114	4	5	1	248	329	404	733	156	332	30	10	314	99	-1	+1	-3	-4	+11	0.4
2031	33	MLB	CWS	61%	348	308	72	13	1	9	34	106	3	3	1	234	316	370	686	136	325	30	10	306	92	-3	+0	-3	-4	+10	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2842	2499	618	122	14	76	295	841	25	55	18	247	333	399	731	151	339	30	10	323	105	+16	+4	-19	-36	+81	4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	141	28	3	17	67	192	6	13	4	247	332	395	727	149	338	30	10	323	105	+4	+1	-4	-8	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	6833	6004	1429	277	29	185	716	2153	65	115	34	238	326	386	712	148	336	32	10	316	100	-1	+9	-28	-73	+194	10.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	136	26	3	18	68	205	6	11	3	238	325	389	714	151	336	32	10	316	100	-0	+1	-3	-7	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	134	109	28	5	2	0	23	49	1	3	1	257	391	339	730	83	459	37	17	339	118	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2018	20	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	130	104	31	9	0	3	26	34	0	0	0	298	438	471	910	173	418	26	20	409	171	+10	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2018	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	389	323	90	12	0	16	63	97	0	2	1	279	396	464	861	186	347	25	16	382	151	+22	+0	—	—	+11	3.4
2019	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	211	178	45	10	2	8	31	63	2	2	0	253	370	466	836	213	346	30	15	372	143	+10	+0	—	—	+6	1.7
2019	21	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	324	252	72	12	1	7	65	85	4	5	3	286	439	425	864	139	399	26	20	392	158	+21	-0	—	—	+9	3.1
2019	21	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	68	60	12	2	0	4	8	31	0	1	0	200	294	433	727	233	320	46	12	322	105	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2021	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	407	341	81	25	1	13	59	122	5	10	2	238	358	431	789	194	327	30	14	353	128	+13	+1	—	—	+12	2.6
2022	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	94	86	21	5	0	2	8	31	0	0	0	244	309	372	681	128	358	33	9	307	93	-1	+0	+0	-4	+3	-0.1
2022	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	248	214	59	11	1	9	31	64	1	4	1	276	370	463	833	187	352	26	12	368	140	+11	+0	—	—	+7	1.9
2023	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	424	367	109	22	4	20	53	126	3	20	4	297	390	542	932	245	401	30	12	407	170	+33	+2	+0	-7	+12	4.2
2023	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	187	149	53	13	2	12	33	43	4	5	0	356	484	711	1.195	356	432	23	18	505	244	+31	+1	—	—	+5	3.8
2024	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	297	256	58	13	1	3	36	91	1	5	4	227	324	320	645	94	333	31	12	295	84	-5	-1	-5	-4	+8	-0.8
2024	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	84	71	19	7	1	3	10	27	3	0	0	268	381	521	902	254	390	32	12	396	161	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2024	26	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	21	16	5	0	0	2	5	4	0	0	0	312	476	688	1.164	375	300	19	24	494	236	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	403	355	75	14	2	5	39	113	5	8	3	211	298	304	602	93	292	28	10	276	70	-14	+0	-4	-4	+11	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1218	1064	263	54	7	30	136	361	9	33	11	247	337	396	733	148	343	30	11	329	110	+13	+2	-9	-19	+35	2.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Scott Spieziolast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,044 PA	8	3,044	86	23	258	334	427	-21	-15	9.6	10.0
	/162	664	19	5	258	334	427	-4.5	-3.4	2.1	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,865	76	56	247	329	398	-31	-12	7.0	7.3
	/162	664	18	13	247	329	398	-7.1	-2.8	1.6	pk7: 8
#2Michael Tuckerlast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,732 PA	7	2,732	71	71	253	340	419	-23	-26	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	17	17	253	340	419	-5.5	-6.3	1.8	pk7: 7
#3Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	6	2,335	57	47	263	326	406	-24	-8	5.3	5.3
#3Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	/162	664	16	13	263	326	406	-6.7	-2.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Eric Karroslast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,197 PA	5	2,197	73	13	255	317	418	-19	-17	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	22	4	255	317	418	-5.7	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 4
#6Nomar Mazaralast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,690 PA	7	2,690	85	7	256	315	414	-29	-21	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	21	2	256	315	414	-7.1	-5.3	0.9	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nolan Jones (OGILVIE)	28	40	45	50	55	240/321/401	161	312	23	14	29%	9%	101	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cooper Hummel 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	49→50	48→55	53	226/316/384	158	294	16	10	27%	11%	99	+1.7	225/326/370	145	307	12	18	28%	12%	100	+1.7	222/332/370	148	300	12	19	27%	12%	99	+1.1
✕Derek Fisher 2022 · MLB	28	45→52	50→55	48→55	47	226/301/381	156	304	18	11	31%	9%	92	+1.2	207/270/343	136	309	15	8	36%	7%	69	-0.4	124/197/248	125	185	17	0	43%	8%	11	-0.8
✕Josh VanMeter 2023 · MLB	28	41→47	49→55	49→50	53	212/299/366	154	266	16	9	26%	11%	87	+0.8	203/306/333	130	272	14	9	28%	12%	82	+0.5	169/296/280	111	230	13	8	30%	14%	63	-0.3
✕Cavan Biggio 2023 · MLB	28	44→48	47→60	51→50	55	216/320/357	141	285	13	8	27%	12%	95	+1.4	214/319/340	126	290	14	8	28%	11%	90	+1.0	199/310/307	108	277	12	8	30%	11%	76	+0.1
✕Greg Bird 2021 · MLB	28	43→50	51→55	48→30	51	221/306/385	164	278	19	6	27%	10%	95	+1.4	200/270/350	150	261	19	4	30%	8%	71	-0.3	177/249/320	143	226	18	1	30%	8%	53	-0.9
✕Aaron Altherr 2019 · MLB	28	44→52	51→55	48→50	49	221/306/383	162	293	18	10	30%	10%	95	+1.4	212/290/367	155	277	17	10	29%	9%	84	+0.6	156/234/314	158	186	18	10	28%	7%	46	-0.5
✕Jason Conti 2002 · MLB	27	49→41	47→45	56→50	46	237/304/380	143	315	13	13	28%	8%	92	+1.2	239/298/371	132	310	11	9	25%	7%	87	+0.8	220/270/333	113	288	10	6	27%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Eli White 2022 · MLB	28	43→49	47→50	48→60	44	213/287/345	132	291	15	13	31%	8%	77	+0.1	227/302/365	138	317	17	28	31%	9%	88	+0.9	238/302/384	146	318	18	31	30%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Ka'ai Tom 2022 · MLB	28	41→50	50→55	49→50	45	210/293/369	158	277	17	6	30%	8%	86	+0.8	205/285/335	130	292	14	10	33%	8%	74	-0.1	187/270/313	126	271	14	10	34%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Jordan Danks 2015 · MLB	28	49	47→50	47→50	45	237/304/366	128	328	15	11	31%	8%	89	+1.0	225/276/333	108	318	12	9	31%	6%	69	-0.4	214/258/299	84	304	10	6	32%	5%	47	-1.4
✕Josh Rojas 2022 · MLB	28	51→54	46→50	49→55	52	247/322/388	140	312	13	14	24%	10%	102	+1.8	247/320/365	118	310	11	18	22%	10%	95	+1.4	241/316/349	108	301	10	20	22%	9%	86	+0.6
✕Ryan Langerhans 2008 · MLB	28	46→40	47→50	45→50	53	223/316/363	140	295	13	6	27%	11%	94	+1.3	235/325/376	141	315	13	13	27%	11%	101	+1.8	235/331/375	140	316	13	16	27%	12%	100	+0.9
✕Ricky Ledee 2002 · MLB	28	48→47	45→60	47→50	54	235/314/371	136	280	11	11	20%	10%	94	+1.3	239/330/419	180	280	19	6	21%	12%	114	+2.7	251/335/439	188	292	21	2	21%	11%	113	+1.1
●Michael Saunders 2014 · MLB	27	48→52	51→55	53→55	51	239/315/407	167	300	17	18	25%	10%	104	+2.0	250/329/423	173	319	18	9	25%	10%	115	+2.7	243/316/422	179	305	19	3	26%	9%	104	+1.4
✕Travis Buck 2011 · MLB	27	46	45→55	48→45	46	229/294/357	127	281	12	9	23%	7%	82	+0.5	226/283/345	119	281	10	6	22%	6%	74	-0.1	225/280/337	112	281	10	0	23%	6%	69	-0.1
✕Mark Hamilton 2013 · MLB	29	48→44	47→50	47→30	48	239/309/380	141	308	15	3	26%	9%	95	+1.4	218/287/345	127	304	14	4	31%	8%	76	+0.1	204/278/321	117	291	13	1	32%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Blake Gailen 2013 · AA	28	44	46→55	50	49	219/282/356	137	255	13	12	20%	8%	77	+0.1	229/295/382	153	252	16	12	16%	8%	89	+1.0	216/293/365	150	234	17	9	16%	10%	83	+0.2
✕Simon Pond 2005 · MLB	28	45→42	48→55	49→45	50	226/303/368	142	269	15	9	22%	9%	89	+1.0	223/279/379	156	300	18	7	30%	7%	82	+0.5	216/270/369	153	291	17	5	31%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Franchy Cordero 2023 · MLB	28	47→54	50→55	50	44	228/297/386	157	325	17	12	33%	8%	92	+1.2	231/296/393	162	306	20	10	30%	8%	93	+1.3	222/288/378	156	283	21	7	28%	8%	82	+0.2
✕George Lombard 2005 · MLB	29	47→44	47→50	55	45	237/295/377	140	297	15	17	25%	7%	88	+0.9	228/299/385	157	314	17	23	31%	8%	92	+1.2	220/293/373	153	305	17	27	32%	8%	84	+0.4