Scott Heineman
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 27 | MLBTEX | 54 | .154/.185/.269 | 1 | 3 | 23 | -0.3 | ||
| 2021 | 28 | AAACIN | 68 | .279/.353/.410 | 1 | 4 | 72 | — | .238/.294/.349 | |
| 2021 | 28 | MLBCIN | 34 | .100/.206/.300 | 2 | 0 | 36 | -0.1 | ||
| 2022 | 29 | AAASEA | 112 | .190/.277/.310 | 2 | 5 | 24 | — | .152/.205/.238 | |
| 2023 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 610 | 525 | 159 | 39 | 8 | 17 | 59 | 120 | 16 | 30 | 14 | 303 | 390 | 505 | 895 | 202 | 360 | 20 | 10 | 389 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 79 | 65 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 231 | 359 | 308 | 667 | 77 | 269 | 16 | 16 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 529 | 468 | 133 | 26 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 121 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 284 | 364 | 427 | 792 | 143 | 365 | 23 | 9 | 354 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 469 | 424 | 125 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 93 | 9 | 16 | 8 | 295 | 357 | 429 | 786 | 134 | 353 | 20 | 7 | 350 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 31 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 522 | 633 | 739 | 1.372 | 217 | 611 | 16 | 23 | 570 | 237 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 113 | 102 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 255 | 315 | 363 | 678 | 108 | 276 | 12 | 7 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 85 | 75 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 213 | 306 | 373 | 679 | 160 | 264 | 24 | 11 | 307 | 85 | -2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 182 | 159 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 340 | 417 | 553 | 970 | 214 | 426 | 25 | 9 | 422 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 18 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 412 | 444 | 941 | 1.386 | 529 | 385 | 11 | 6 | 585 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 54 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 185 | 269 | 454 | 115 | 175 | 20 | 4 | 203 | 23 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 34 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 206 | 300 | 506 | 200 | 77 | 44 | 9 | 232 | 36 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 68 | 61 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 279 | 353 | 410 | 763 | 131 | 333 | 18 | 7 | 344 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 112 | 100 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 190 | 277 | 310 | 587 | 120 | 293 | 36 | 10 | 270 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 173 | 157 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 172 | 249 | 325 | 573 | 153 | 208 | 27 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 610 | 543 | 128 | 28 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 173 | 16 | 30 | 14 | 236 | 308 | 376 | 684 | 140 | 307 | 28 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 529 | 486 | 113 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 154 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 233 | 292 | 335 | 628 | 103 | 325 | 29 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 469 | 433 | 112 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 113 | 9 | 16 | 8 | 259 | 310 | 367 | 677 | 109 | 325 | 24 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 31 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 462 | 533 | 654 | 1.187 | 192 | 548 | 23 | 13 | 518 | 237 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 85 | 75 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 213 | 306 | 373 | 679 | 160 | 264 | 24 | 11 | 293 | 85 | -2 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 182 | 164 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 262 | 328 | 415 | 742 | 152 | 351 | 31 | 7 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 18 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 529 | 807 | 294 | 264 | 17 | 6 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 54 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 185 | 269 | 454 | 115 | 175 | 20 | 4 | 202 | 23 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 34 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 206 | 300 | 506 | 200 | 77 | 44 | 9 | 221 | 36 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 68 | 63 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 294 | 349 | 643 | 111 | 298 | 22 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 112 | 105 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 152 | 205 | 238 | 443 | 86 | 266 | 42 | 5 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 689 | 616 | 145 | 32 | 6 | 14 | 46 | 195 | 16 | 33 | 17 | 235 | 305 | 375 | 680 | 140 | 316 | 28 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 689 | 590 | 174 | 41 | 8 | 18 | 72 | 133 | 16 | 33 | 17 | 295 | 386 | 483 | 869 | 188 | 350 | 19 | 10 | 380 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 529 | 486 | 113 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 154 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 233 | 292 | 335 | 628 | 103 | 326 | 29 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 529 | 468 | 133 | 26 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 121 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 284 | 364 | 427 | 792 | 143 | 365 | 23 | 9 | 354 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 613 | 562 | 152 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 147 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 270 | 323 | 381 | 704 | 110 | 343 | 24 | 6 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 613 | 549 | 163 | 25 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 112 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 297 | 363 | 430 | 793 | 133 | 348 | 18 | 8 | 352 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 285 | 256 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 80 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 242 | 314 | 402 | 717 | 160 | 314 | 28 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 285 | 251 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 67 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 307 | 385 | 526 | 911 | 219 | 374 | 24 | 9 | 398 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 54 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 185 | 269 | 454 | 115 | 175 | 20 | 4 | 202 | 23 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB RAW | Texas Rangers | — | 54 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 185 | 269 | 454 | 115 | 175 | 20 | 4 | 203 | 23 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 102 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 183 | 255 | 290 | 545 | 108 | 246 | 29 | 6 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 102 | 91 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 304 | 374 | 678 | 154 | 279 | 26 | 8 | 306 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 112 | 105 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 152 | 205 | 238 | 443 | 86 | 263 | 42 | 5 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 112 | 100 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 190 | 277 | 310 | 587 | 120 | 293 | 36 | 10 | 270 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 689 | 622 | 145 | 32 | 6 | 14 | 46 | 195 | 16 | 33 | 17 | 233 | 305 | 371 | 677 | 138 | 307 | 28 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 529 | 483 | 113 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 154 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 234 | 292 | 337 | 630 | 104 | 325 | 29 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 613 | 564 | 152 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 147 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 270 | 323 | 379 | 703 | 110 | 339 | 24 | 6 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 285 | 256 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 80 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 242 | 314 | 402 | 717 | 160 | 320 | 28 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 54 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 185 | 269 | 454 | 115 | 175 | 20 | 4 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 102 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 185 | 255 | 293 | 548 | 109 | 224 | 29 | 6 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 112 | 104 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 154 | 205 | 240 | 446 | 87 | 266 | 42 | 5 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 173 | 157 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 172 | 249 | 325 | 573 | 153 | 208 | 27 | 8 | 260 | 82 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 102 | 34 | 0 | 19 | 53 | 173 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 173 | 251 | 327 | 578 | 154 | 209 | 27 | 8 | 260 | 82 | -29 | +0 | +4 | +6 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2384 | 2170 | 513 | 97 | 16 | 45 | 148 | 664 | 44 | 85 | 45 | 236 | 298 | 358 | 657 | 122 | 317 | 28 | 6 | 290 | 82 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 139 | 26 | 4 | 12 | 40 | 181 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 235 | 297 | 353 | 650 | 118 | 315 | 28 | 6 | 290 | 82 | -29 | +0 | +4 | +6 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 112 PAwOBA .259 → .204 (−55)K% 35.7% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.93% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.33% | ÷1.013 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×0.972 | 16.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.839 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.972 | 9.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.144 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.98% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .259 → .204; ISO .120 → .090; BABIP .293 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAALouisville Bats · 68 PAwOBA .335 → .274 (−60)K% 17.6% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.099 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 2.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.985 | ×0.982 | 22.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷0.945 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×0.982 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×0.982 | 2.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.088 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.29% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .335 → .274; ISO .131 → .103; BABIP .333 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAANashville Sounds · 182 PAwOBA .415 → .324 (−91)K% 24.7% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.73% | ÷1.015 | ×1.290 | — | — | 31.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.34% | ÷0.988 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.20% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 28.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.069 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.02% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 5.50% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .415 → .324; ISO .214 → .159; BABIP .426 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Rangers · 18 PAwOBA .566 → .390 (−177)K% 11.1% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 3.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 10.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 13.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 9.78% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .566 → .390; ISO .529 → .367; BABIP .385 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAARound Rock Express · 469 PAwOBA .343 → .296 (−47)K% 19.8% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.83% | ÷1.055 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷0.978 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.79% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 26.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.04% | ÷1.019 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.32% | ÷0.978 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 92, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .343 → .296; ISO .134 → .107; BABIP .353 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 31 PAwOBA .571 → .518 (−53)K% 16.1% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.13% | ÷0.922 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.35% | ÷1.021 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 13.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 45.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.993 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 9.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.088 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.04% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 98, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 84, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .571 → .518; ISO .217 → .189; BABIP .611 → .548. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 529 PAwOBA .346 → .279 (−68)K% 22.9% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.87% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.45% | ÷1.095 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.22% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×0.998 | 24.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.49% | ÷1.051 | ×0.840 | ×1.020 | ×0.998 | 6.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.017 | ×0.940 | ×1.020 | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 103, K 92, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .346 → .279; ISO .143 → .112; BABIP .365 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+High Desert Mavericks · 610 PAwOBA .383 → .295 (−88)K% 19.7% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.67% | ÷0.931 | ×1.340 | — | — | 28.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.67% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.62% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.46% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 21.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.63% | ÷1.075 | ×0.820 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 7.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.98% | ÷1.037 | ×0.760 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.194 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 3.19% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 99, 2B 115, 3B 107, K 86, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .383 → .295; ISO .202 → .145; BABIP .360 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .