Phillip Ervin

PosLF

B/TR/R

Born1992-07-15

Age (2027)35

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTL

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2022	30	INTLYaquis de Obr…	174	.252/.382/.371	2	4	120	—
2024	32	INTLVenados de Ma…	197	.283/.412/.434	3	0	142	—
2025	33	INTLAlgodoneros d…	237	.245/.362/.321	2	2	99	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2020

Speed47

xwOBA39

Barrel%16

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	51	43	15	2	0	1	8	10	0	2	1	349	451	465	916	116	438	20	16	414	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	149	129	42	9	1	8	17	24	3	12	0	326	416	597	1.013	271	351	16	11	440	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	562	498	118	34	7	7	46	110	7	30	5	237	310	376	685	139	284	20	8	303	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	66	51	12	3	0	2	13	15	2	4	3	235	409	412	821	176	294	23	20	377	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	475	405	98	18	0	12	53	83	9	30	7	242	343	375	718	133	271	17	11	323	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	77	67	14	4	0	1	7	11	2	8	1	209	303	313	616	104	232	14	9	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	505	419	100	22	3	13	65	88	18	36	10	239	365	399	763	160	271	17	13	346	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	64	58	15	2	0	3	4	15	1	4	1	259	317	448	766	190	300	23	6	334	107	+0	+0	-2	+2	+1	0.2
2017	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	408	363	93	20	2	7	37	83	2	23	6	256	328	380	708	124	315	20	9	315	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	247	218	55	10	1	7	20	60	5	6	1	252	329	404	733	151	310	24	8	324	100	-0	+1	-4	-5	+5	-0.3
2018	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	202	173	50	12	4	5	20	39	5	10	7	289	379	491	870	202	341	19	10	377	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	260	236	64	11	7	7	18	63	4	4	3	271	333	466	799	195	339	24	7	349	119	+6	-0	+1	-5	+6	0.8
2019	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	172	145	42	8	1	6	19	34	5	6	6	290	391	483	873	193	333	20	11	382	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	89	74	11	3	0	0	14	22	1	1	0	149	292	189	481	41	212	25	16	243	51	-5	+0	+2	-1	+2	-0.2
2021	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	266	229	44	6	1	8	35	70	1	11	4	192	302	332	634	140	237	26	13	291	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	174	143	36	11	0	2	30	35	0	4	1	252	382	371	752	119	318	20	17	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL	Venados de Mazatlan	—	197	159	45	13	1	3	29	38	6	0	0	283	412	434	846	151	350	19	15	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL	Algodoneros de Guasave	—	237	196	48	7	1	2	31	43	5	2	2	245	362	321	683	77	295	18	13	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	660	586	145	26	8	17	56	160	11	15	5	247	325	406	731	159	308	24	8	324	105	+4	+1	-2	-9	+14	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	51	45	13	2	0	1	6	13	0	2	1	289	373	400	773	111	380	25	12	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	149	136	31	6	1	6	10	35	3	12	0	228	295	419	714	191	260	23	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	562	514	102	28	7	6	31	138	7	30	5	198	254	315	569	117	245	25	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	66	56	12	3	0	2	8	19	2	4	3	214	333	375	708	161	282	29	12	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	475	417	85	16	0	10	41	120	9	30	7	204	289	314	603	110	246	25	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	505	443	93	19	3	12	41	103	18	36	10	210	303	348	650	138	239	20	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	64	58	15	2	0	3	4	15	1	4	1	259	317	448	766	190	300	23	6	326	107	+0	+0	-2	+2	+1	0.2
2017	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	408	375	84	16	2	6	26	101	2	23	6	224	278	325	603	101	286	25	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	247	219	54	10	1	6	19	60	5	6	1	247	321	384	705	137	310	24	8	316	100	-0	+1	-4	-5	+5	-0.3
2018	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	202	179	45	10	4	4	14	49	5	10	7	251	323	419	742	168	308	24	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	260	236	63	11	7	6	18	63	4	4	3	267	329	449	779	182	339	24	7	343	119	+6	-0	+1	-5	+6	0.8
2019	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	172	153	36	6	1	5	11	42	5	6	6	235	308	386	693	150	278	24	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	89	74	11	3	0	0	14	22	1	1	0	149	292	189	481	41	212	25	16	244	51	-5	+0	+2	-1	+2	-0.2
2021	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	266	241	37	5	1	5	23	86	1	11	4	154	230	245	475	91	212	32	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	200	181	44	8	1	6	16	48	3	14	1	243	315	398	713	155	299	24	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	200	172	57	11	1	9	25	34	3	14	1	331	425	564	989	233	372	17	12	433	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	562	514	102	28	7	6	31	138	7	30	5	198	254	315	569	117	253	25	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	562	498	118	34	7	7	46	110	7	30	5	237	310	376	685	139	284	20	8	303	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	618	540	110	22	0	13	56	158	13	42	11	204	294	317	611	113	257	26	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	618	523	124	25	0	15	73	109	13	42	11	237	345	371	716	134	268	18	12	323	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	505	443	93	19	3	12	41	103	18	36	10	210	303	348	650	138	245	20	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	505	419	100	22	3	13	65	88	18	36	10	239	365	399	763	160	271	17	13	346	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	472	433	99	18	2	9	30	116	3	27	7	229	283	342	625	113	292	25	6	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	472	421	108	22	2	10	41	98	3	27	7	257	326	390	716	133	313	21	9	318	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	449	398	100	20	5	11	33	109	10	16	8	251	324	410	734	158	312	24	7	319	102	+1	+0	-4	-5	+10	0.2
2018	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	449	391	105	22	5	12	40	99	10	16	8	269	351	442	794	174	324	22	9	348	102	+1	+0	-4	-5	+10	0.2
2019	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	432	389	100	17	8	12	29	105	9	10	9	257	323	434	758	177	318	24	7	329	109	+4	-2	+1	-5	+9	0.9
2019	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	432	381	106	19	8	13	37	97	9	10	9	278	356	472	828	194	337	22	9	362	109	+4	-2	+1	-5	+9	0.9
2020	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	89	74	11	3	0	0	14	22	1	1	0	149	292	189	481	41	212	25	16	244	51	-5	+0	+2	-1	+2	-0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	89	74	11	3	0	0	14	22	1	1	0	149	292	189	481	41	212	25	16	243	51	-5	+0	+2	-1	+2	-0.2
2021	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	266	241	37	5	1	5	23	86	1	11	4	154	230	245	475	91	212	32	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	266	229	44	6	1	8	35	70	1	11	4	192	302	332	634	140	237	26	13	291	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL MLE	Yaquis de Obregon	—	174	143	36	11	0	2	30	35	0	4	1	252	382	371	752	119	318	20	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL RAW	Yaquis de Obregon	—	174	143	36	11	0	2	30	35	0	4	1	252	382	371	752	119	318	20	17	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL MLE	Venados de Mazatlan	—	197	159	45	13	1	3	29	38	6	0	0	283	412	434	846	151	350	19	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL RAW	Venados de Mazatlan	—	197	159	45	13	1	3	29	38	6	0	0	283	412	434	846	151	350	19	15	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL MLE	Algodoneros de Guasave	—	237	196	48	7	1	2	31	43	5	2	2	245	362	321	683	77	295	18	13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL RAW	Algodoneros de Guasave	—	237	196	48	7	1	2	31	43	5	2	2	245	362	321	683	77	295	18	13	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	200	179	44	8	1	6	16	48	3	14	1	246	315	402	717	156	291	24	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	562	519	102	28	7	6	31	138	7	30	5	197	254	312	566	116	245	25	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	618	544	110	22	0	13	56	158	13	42	11	202	294	314	608	112	250	26	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	505	441	93	19	3	12	41	103	18	36	10	211	303	349	652	138	239	20	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	472	436	99	18	2	9	30	116	3	27	7	227	283	339	623	112	288	25	6	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	449	403	100	20	5	11	33	109	10	16	8	248	324	404	729	156	309	24	7	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	432	391	100	17	8	12	29	105	9	10	9	256	323	432	755	176	315	24	7	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	89	74	11	3	0	0	14	22	1	1	0	149	292	189	481	41	212	25	16	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	266	240	37	5	1	5	23	86	1	11	4	154	230	246	476	92	212	32	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	660	586	145	26	8	17	56	160	11	15	5	247	325	406	731	159	308	24	8	324	48	+4	+1	-2	-9	+14	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	144	26	8	17	55	158	11	15	5	250	327	411	737	161	311	24	8	324	48	+4	+1	-2	-9	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4201	3711	825	171	29	81	363	1001	76	193	58	222	305	350	654	127	279	24	9	239	48	+4	+1	-2	-9	+14	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	127	26	4	13	56	155	12	30	9	221	303	348	652	127	277	24	9	239	48	+4	+1	-2	-9	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 266 PAwOBA .285 → .219 (−66)K% 26.3% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.32%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	32.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.16%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.79%
HBP% /PA	0.38%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.35%
Singles /BIP	18.24%	÷1.011	×0.930	×1.033	×0.982	17.02%
Doubles /BIP	3.77%	÷1.039	×0.830	×1.033	×0.982	3.06%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.033	×0.982	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	5.03%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.46%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .285 → .219; ISO .140 → .098; BABIP .237 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 172 PAwOBA .379 → .307 (−71)K% 19.8% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.77%	÷0.960	×1.200	—	—	24.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.05%	÷1.151	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.64%
HBP% /PA	2.91%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.74%
Singles /BIP	24.32%	÷1.018	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	21.18%
Doubles /BIP	7.21%	÷1.082	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	5.27%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.72%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷0.957	×0.840	—	×1.003	4.76%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .379 → .307; ISO .193 → .164; BABIP .333 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALouisville Bats · 202 PAwOBA .371 → .324 (−47)K% 19.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.31%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	24.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.41%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.83%
HBP% /PA	2.48%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.37%
Singles /BIP	21.64%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.994	×1.018	20.14%
Doubles /BIP	8.96%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.994	×1.018	7.39%
Triples /BIP	2.99%	÷1.001	×0.970	×0.994	×1.018	2.93%
Home runs /BIP	3.73%	÷0.988	×0.840	—	×1.018	3.23%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .371 → .324; ISO .202 → .179; BABIP .341 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALouisville Bats · 408 PAwOBA .307 → .262 (−45)K% 20.3% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.34%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	24.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.07%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.37%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.48%
Singles /BIP	22.86%	÷1.038	×0.930	×1.013	×1.033	21.42%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.051	×0.830	×1.013	×1.033	5.90%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷1.113	×0.970	×1.013	×1.033	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷1.042	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.08%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 108, 2B 110, 3B 123, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .307 → .262; ISO .124 → .103; BABIP .315 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 505 PAwOBA .340 → .285 (−55)K% 17.4% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.43%	÷1.042	×1.220	—	—	20.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.87%	÷1.075	×0.680	—	×1.012	8.24%
HBP% /PA	3.56%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	3.03%
Singles /BIP	18.73%	÷0.993	×0.920	×0.968	×1.012	17.00%
Doubles /BIP	6.65%	÷1.081	×0.910	×0.968	×1.012	5.48%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷0.981	×0.880	×0.968	×1.012	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	3.93%	÷0.924	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.44%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .340 → .285; ISO .160 → .143; BABIP .271 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Daytona Tortugas · 475 PAwOBA .318 → .268 (−49)K% 17.5% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.47%	÷0.986	×1.420	—	—	25.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.74%	÷0.934	×0.750	—	×0.998	8.60%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	1.76%
Singles /BIP	21.12%	÷0.969	×0.920	×0.961	×0.998	19.22%
Doubles /BIP	5.59%	÷0.988	×0.960	×0.961	×0.998	5.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.961	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.73%	÷1.047	×0.880	—	×0.998	3.13%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 94, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .318 → .268; ISO .133 → .110; BABIP .271 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 66 PAwOBA .368 → .306 (−62)K% 22.7% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷0.979	×1.220	—	—	28.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.70%	÷1.087	×0.680	—	×1.027	12.66%
HBP% /PA	3.03%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	2.61%
Singles /BIP	19.44%	÷0.965	×0.920	—	×1.027	19.04%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.979	×0.910	—	×1.027	7.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.903	×0.880	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.037	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.40%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 96, 3B 81, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .368 → .306; ISO .176 → .154; BABIP .294 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 ADayton Dragons · 562 PAwOBA .300 → .247 (−53)K% 19.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.57%	÷1.082	×1.360	—	—	24.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.01%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	—	5.58%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.97%
Singles /BIP	18.04%	÷1.007	×0.920	×0.950	—	15.66%
Doubles /BIP	8.76%	÷0.940	×0.830	×0.950	—	7.35%
Triples /BIP	1.80%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.950	—	1.73%
Home runs /BIP	1.80%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	1.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 116, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .300 → .247; ISO .139 → .118; BABIP .284 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .