Zach McKinstry — OGILVIE

Zach McKinstry3B Detroit Tigers

Age 31 L/R 5'11" / 180 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 4.576 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION248 act + 237 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 10395vR 91

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .315 / .384

PA237

HR5

SB6

K%19

BB%9

BABIP280

ISO147

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

857.3%

xwOBA

400.297

POWER40

Barrel%

244.8

Avg EV

1186.1

Bat Spd

3469.6

EYE50

Chase%

8924.1%

SPEED55

Sprint

6027.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 875 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

152

723

—

wRC+

107

◀L

wOBA

325

308

◀L

ISO

174

152

◀L

BABIP

329

288

◀L

21.1%

21.7%

◀L

BB%

5.9%

8.6%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.576 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$2M
2027	Arb-3	$5M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$3M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	2 teams	—	182	164	38	5	3	0	10	45	5	6	2	232	296	299	595	67	317	25	5	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A	2 teams	—	182	159	40	5	3	0	15	32	5	6	2	252	335	321	656	69	312	18	8	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	3 teams	—	469	432	83	16	1	3	30	144	5	7	3	192	253	255	507	63	280	31	6	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	3 teams	—	469	410	98	21	1	4	52	105	5	7	3	239	332	324	656	85	311	22	11	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	3 teams	—	273	239	53	8	3	5	25	82	9	2	1	222	319	343	662	121	316	30	9	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	3 teams	—	273	227	64	11	4	7	37	59	9	2	1	282	403	458	861	176	354	22	14	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	2 teams	—	479	446	107	18	5	17	27	128	3	8	9	240	288	417	705	177	297	27	6	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	2 teams	—	479	430	129	24	6	19	43	92	3	8	9	300	368	516	884	216	343	19	9	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB	2 teams	—	343	312	74	17	3	13	23	82	4	5	3	237	298	436	734	199	277	24	7	316	100	-0	-0	-2	-4	+10	0.4
2021	26	MLB	2 teams	—	343	305	74	17	3	14	30	76	4	5	3	243	319	456	774	213	275	22	9	338	117	+6	-0	-2	-4	+10	1.1
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	408	368	89	14	7	8	32	94	3	7	3	242	308	383	691	141	301	23	8	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	408	357	97	15	7	9	43	85	3	7	3	272	355	429	783	157	331	21	11	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	518	464	111	22	4	10	44	113	5	16	6	239	312	369	680	129	294	22	8	301	88	-7	+1	+4	+2	+15	1.5
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	518	464	107	21	4	9	44	113	5	16	6	231	304	351	655	121	284	22	8	295	84	-10	+1	+4	+2	+15	1.2
2024	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	325	297	66	15	5	4	24	69	2	16	0	222	285	347	632	125	274	21	7	281	73	-10	+3	+4	+3	+9	1.0
2024	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	325	297	64	14	5	4	24	69	2	16	0	215	279	337	615	121	265	21	7	276	69	-11	+3	+4	+3	+9	0.8
2025	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	511	452	121	24	11	13	46	111	7	19	5	268	345	456	800	188	324	22	9	345	122	+13	+2	+1	+2	+14	3.2
2025	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	511	452	117	23	11	12	46	111	7	19	5	259	337	438	775	179	314	22	9	340	118	+11	+2	+1	+2	+14	3.0
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	MLB	DET	—	248	218	43	6	2	4	25	42	0	1	3	197	280	298	578	101	224	17	10	255	54	-13	-1	+1	+1	+7	-0.6
YTD	31	MLB	DET	—	248	218	43	6	2	4	25	42	0	1	3	197	280	298	578	101	224	17	10	261	58	-12	-1	+1	+1	+7	-0.4
ROS	31	MLB	DET	100%	237	211	50	10	3	5	22	46	2	6	2	237	315	384	699	147	279	19	9	309	95	-1	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.6
ROS	31	MLB	DET	100%	237	211	50	10	3	5	22	46	2	6	2	237	315	384	699	147	274	19	9	300	88	-3	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.4
FULL	31	MLB	DET	—	485	429	93	16	5	9	47	88	2	7	5	217	297	340	637	124	251	18	10	277	70	-16	-1	+0	+2	+14	-0.1
TOT	31	MLB	DET	—	485	429	93	16	5	9	47	88	2	7	5	217	297	340	637	124	251	18	10	282	74	-14	-1	+0	+2	+14	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	DET	100%	422	377	89	18	6	8	39	84	3	8	3	236	313	379	692	143	280	20	9	307	93	-3	+0	-4	+2	+12	0.6
2027	32	MLB	DET	100%	422	377	88	17	6	8	39	84	3	8	3	233	310	374	684	141	276	20	9	298	86	-7	+0	-4	+2	+12	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2370	2125	493	100	32	50	201	525	21	73	17	232	305	380	684	148	283	22	8	302	89	-29	+8	+4	+7	+67	5.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	135	27	9	14	55	144	6	20	5	232	304	381	685	149	282	22	8	302	89	-8	+2	+1	+2	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	4167	3762	881	167	51	86	322	998	48	100	37	234	303	374	677	140	294	24	8	297	85	-70	+5	+4	+12	+118	7.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	137	26	8	13	50	156	7	16	6	233	301	371	673	138	294	24	8	297	85	-11	+1	+1	+2	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	165	142	37	5	2	0	15	29	5	6	1	261	352	324	676	63	325	18	9	309	94	-1	+1	—	—	+5	0.5
2016	21	ROK	AZL Dodgers	—	17	17	3	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	176	176	294	471	118	214	18	0	201	12	-2	-0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2017	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	45	39	10	1	1	0	6	8	0	0	0	256	356	333	689	77	323	18	13	318	102	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2017	22	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	355	319	72	13	0	3	29	87	5	5	2	226	300	295	595	69	300	25	8	275	68	-13	+0	—	—	+10	-0.2
2017	22	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	69	52	16	7	0	1	17	10	0	2	1	308	478	500	978	192	366	14	25	437	193	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2018	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	87	83	16	2	1	2	4	21	0	0	0	193	230	313	543	120	233	24	5	242	44	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2018	23	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	114	91	28	7	1	2	17	22	6	0	0	308	447	473	920	165	388	19	15	415	176	+10	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2018	23	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	72	53	20	2	2	3	16	16	3	2	1	377	542	660	1.202	283	500	22	22	516	253	+12	+0	—	—	+2	1.5
2019	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	95	89	34	8	2	7	6	18	0	0	1	382	421	753	1.174	371	422	19	6	501	242	+15	-0	—	—	+3	1.8
2019	24	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	384	341	95	16	4	12	37	74	3	8	8	279	354	455	809	176	323	19	10	357	131	+14	-2	—	—	+11	2.3
2021	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	172	158	34	9	0	7	10	50	1	1	1	215	266	405	671	190	262	29	6	291	81	-4	-0	-2	-4	+5	-0.5
2021	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	171	147	40	8	3	7	20	26	3	4	2	272	371	510	881	238	287	15	12	385	152	+10	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2022	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	185	166	33	6	3	5	16	52	1	7	0	199	273	361	635	163	257	28	9	281	73	-6	+1	+2	+1	+5	0.5
2022	27	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	223	191	64	9	4	4	27	33	2	0	3	335	423	487	910	152	382	15	12	400	164	+16	-1	—	—	+6	2.2
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	518	464	107	21	4	9	44	113	5	16	6	231	304	351	655	121	284	22	8	295	84	-10	+1	+4	+2	+15	1.2
2024	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	325	297	64	14	5	4	24	69	2	16	0	215	279	337	615	121	265	21	7	276	69	-11	+3	+4	+3	+9	0.8
2025	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	511	452	117	23	11	12	46	111	7	19	5	259	337	438	775	179	314	22	9	340	118	+11	+2	+1	+2	+14	3.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1711	1537	355	73	23	37	140	395	16	59	12	231	302	381	682	150	285	23	8	303	90	-19	+7	+9	+5	+48	5.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	11	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
	/162	664	18	10	226	302	380	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Peter Bourjoslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,241 PA	8	2,241	42	66	241	298	382	-0	+38	7.4	7.5
	/162	664	12	20	241	298	382	-0.1	+11.3	2.2	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	2,866	60	86	230	300	376	+10	+13	6.2	6.4
	/162	664	14	20	230	300	376	+2.4	+2.9	1.4	pk7: 7
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Zach McKinstry (OGILVIE)	31	50	40	55	50	217/297/340	124	251	9	7	18%	10%	74	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ender Inciarte 2021 · MLB	30	49→59	43→45	52→60	54	237/311/353	115	271	10	18	16%	9%	88	+0.9	228/291/341	113	280	12	12	22%	8%	76	+0.1	224/280/316	92	280	10	12	23%	7%	61	-0.2
✕Andy Fox 2002 · MLB	31	46→53	46→40	51→60	55	229/315/354	125	265	14	15	19%	10%	91	+1.1	229/310/324	95	285	7	23	21%	9%	81	+0.4	236/322/314	78	297	4	31	20%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Brian Bogusevic 2015 · MLB	31	50→55	45→50	51→55	48	242/312/370	128	303	11	15	23%	8%	93	+1.3	256/303/391	135	316	15	16	23%	6%	95	+1.4	265/306/397	133	323	17	17	23%	5%	94	+1.0
✕Jace Peterson 2021 · MLB	31	47→57	49→50	55	52	236/313/390	155	284	15	18	22%	10%	99	+1.7	236/323/382	146	299	16	18	25%	11%	101	+1.8	227/319/357	130	289	14	20	25%	11%	89	+0.6
✕Don Kelly 2011 · MLB	31	51→59	45	55	46	254/297/375	122	280	13	15	15%	5%	88	+0.9	234/293/358	124	259	14	10	15%	7%	82	+0.5	222/294/336	114	241	13	8	14%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Desi Relaford 2005 · MLB	31	49→52	42→45	49→55	53	238/307/344	106	261	9	14	13%	8%	85	+0.7	218/295/316	98	255	8	11	17%	8%	72	-0.2	211/292/299	88	254	6	11	18%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Jose Munoz 2010 · AAA	31	53→49	44→45	46→50	54	255/324/380	125	296	10	11	17%	9%	100	+1.7	228/305/334	106	281	9	8	20%	10%	81	+0.4	193/281/275	82	249	7	5	23%	10%	53	-0.5
✕Alex Cora 2007 · MLB	31	50→53	40→45	50	53	239/309/334	95	257	8	11	11%	7%	82	+0.5	242/312/343	101	264	6	9	10%	7%	86	+0.8	246/318/334	88	268	3	8	9%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Tony Kemp 2023 · MLB	31	52→61	43→45	52→55	57	249/331/365	116	273	10	12	13%	10%	100	+1.7	228/306/340	112	247	10	15	12%	9%	83	+0.6	215/297/315	100	231	9	18	11%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Joey Wendle 2021 · MLB	31	54→61	45→50	54→50	47	260/320/394	134	306	11	19	18%	6%	103	+1.9	253/302/390	137	304	11	14	20%	5%	94	+1.3	247/292/376	129	298	9	13	20%	5%	82	+0.4
✕Pablo Ozuna 2005 · MLB	30	48	45→40	54→55	49	236/302/361	125	263	12	15	16%	7%	87	+0.8	266/310/358	92	296	6	23	12%	5%	88	+0.9	288/324/385	97	318	4	16	10%	3%	98	+0.4
●Marlon Anderson 2005 · MLB	31	52→59	45→55	52→50	51	252/304/377	125	272	11	14	13%	7%	92	+1.2	261/317/418	157	290	18	13	16%	7%	108	+2.3	268/329/434	165	300	18	13	17%	8%	113	+1.1
✕Ramón Vázquez 2008 · MLB	31	45→55	44→45	49→50	51	220/292/338	119	268	11	6	22%	9%	76	+0.1	242/319/352	110	300	9	4	21%	10%	92	+1.2	247/326/340	93	308	6	1	20%	10%	84	+0.3
✕Mitch Maier 2013 · MLB	31	49→56	44→50	52→50	52	237/315/359	121	301	11	9	24%	10%	92	+1.2	233/301/356	123	318	13	9	28%	9%	85	+0.7	275/351/375	100	348	10	11	22%	11%	105	+0.5
✕Chris Duffy 2010 · MLB	30	47→57	42→45	51→60	48	226/291/338	112	277	9	17	21%	8%	76	+0.0	228/279/345	117	315	10	14	29%	5%	73	-0.1	228/275/341	113	323	8	16	30%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2021 · MLB	31	44→54	49→55	58→55	47	224/290/384	161	270	16	21	24%	8%	88	+0.9	243/308/386	143	312	13	17	25%	8%	95	+1.4	248/311/389	141	317	12	17	24%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Leonys Martin 2019 · MLB	31	49→56	49→50	54→60	45	247/302/398	151	306	16	21	25%	7%	96	+1.5	229/297/385	156	290	19	12	27%	8%	92	+1.2	196/272/339	143	249	21	9	30%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Jack Hannahan 2011 · MLB	31	42→52	45	47→45	49	210/283/334	124	269	12	4	26%	9%	72	-0.2	232/306/351	119	290	11	4	23%	9%	86	+0.8	237/318/345	108	296	9	1	21%	10%	87	+0.4
✕Ryan Roberts 2012 · MLB	31	46→52	49→50	49→55	54	234/313/383	149	271	16	18	20%	10%	98	+1.6	227/291/356	129	270	14	11	21%	8%	81	+0.4	231/281/354	123	271	13	2	20%	6%	74	-0.1
✕Adrian Brown 2005 · MLB	31	47→51	43→45	51→55	52	229/296/344	115	265	10	18	18%	8%	80	+0.4	241/304/342	101	280	8	24	16%	8%	82	+0.5	242/306/333	91	281	6	28	15%	8%	77	+0.1