Garrett Stubbs

C Philadelphia Phillies

Age 34 L/R 5'9" / 170 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 5.784 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	31	MLBPHI	187	.207/.296/.262	1	5	63	0.4
2025	32	AAAPHI	309	.265/.353/.402	8	5	64	—	.219/.281/.315
2026	33	AAAPHI	46	.289/.413/.632	3	3	106	—	.225/.326/.450
2026	33	MLBPHI	65	.153/.219/.153	0	0	8	-0.4
2027PROJ	34	MLBPHI	133	.216/.287/.325	3	3	72	0.1
2028PROJ65% MLB	35	MLBPHI	55	.205/.275/.302	1	1	63	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.784First FA2028

2027Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd49

Speed47

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

CompsAnthony Bemboom (age 34) · Alberto Castillo (age 34) · Matt Treanor (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6172vR 75

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .287 / .325

PA133

HR3

K%23

BB%8

BABIP266

ISO108

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.187

POWER30

Avg EV

1080.8

Bat Spd

4971.3

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

4727.4

Platoon Splits2024 · 187 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

128

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

268

256

◀L

ISO

—

080

—

BABIP

324

273

◀◀L

23.7%

28.1%

◀◀L

BB%

10.2%

8.6%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.784 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	103	84	23	5	0	0	14	2	0	1	0	274	378	333	711	60	274	2	14	315	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	137	120	39	9	1	4	14	11	2	5	0	325	404	517	921	192	330	8	10	404	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	244	206	60	13	0	6	29	37	5	10	3	291	392	442	833	150	323	15	12	370	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	83	70	12	4	0	1	10	10	1	2	0	171	280	271	552	100	183	12	12	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	91	77	17	5	0	0	11	15	3	3	0	221	341	286	626	65	274	16	12	298	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	300	263	62	13	0	4	32	44	3	8	0	236	326	331	656	95	269	15	11	301	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	340	297	92	19	6	4	35	53	2	6	0	310	386	455	841	145	361	16	10	369	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	39	35	7	3	0	0	4	7	0	1	0	200	282	286	568	86	250	18	10	263	60	-2	+0	-0	+5	+1	0.4
2019	26	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	235	204	49	11	0	7	24	38	5	12	2	240	335	397	732	157	261	16	10	328	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	38	34	6	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	176	222	235	458	59	222	18	5	200	18	-4	+0	+0	+3	+1	0.1
2021	28	AAA	Sugar Land Skeeters	—	146	113	30	5	0	2	30	29	1	4	0	265	424	363	786	97	333	20	21	363	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	121	106	28	4	1	5	14	30	0	2	0	264	350	462	812	198	324	25	12	357	124	+3	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.7
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	125	113	23	4	1	1	9	29	2	2	0	204	274	283	557	80	265	23	7	256	59	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.2
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	187	164	34	4	1	1	17	50	4	5	0	207	296	262	558	55	289	27	9	262	63	-8	+1	+4	+3	+4	0.4
2025	32	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	309	264	70	12	0	8	31	62	6	5	2	265	353	402	755	136	315	20	10	334	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	65	59	9	0	0	0	3	15	2	0	0	153	219	153	371		200	23	5	180	8	-7	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.4
2026	33	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	46	38	11	4	0	3	7	10	1	3	0	289	413	632	1.045	342	320	22	15	448	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	575	511	107	17	3	7	49	138	8	10	0	209	288	295	584	86	272	24	9	267	67	-23	+2	+1	+18	+12	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	103	89	22	4	0	0	9	3	0	1	0	247	316	292	608	45	238	3	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	137	123	37	8	1	3	11	13	2	5	0	301	368	455	823	154	302	9	8	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	244	215	51	10	0	4	20	51	5	10	3	237	317	340	656	102	275	21	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	91	80	15	4	0	0	8	19	3	3	0	188	286	237	523	50	259	21	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	300	273	55	11	0	3	22	55	3	8	0	201	268	275	543	73	239	18	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	340	309	81	16	4	3	23	70	2	6	0	262	317	369	686	107	317	21	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	39	35	7	3	0	0	4	7	0	1	0	200	282	286	568	86	250	18	10	257	60	-2	+0	-0	+5	+1	0.4
2019	26	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	235	211	43	9	0	6	17	48	5	12	2	204	279	332	611	128	229	20	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	38	34	6	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	176	222	235	458	59	222	18	5	195	18	-4	+0	+0	+3	+1	0.1
2021	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Skeeters	—	146	122	28	5	0	2	21	35	1	4	0	230	347	320	667	90	284	24	14	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	121	106	28	4	1	5	14	30	0	2	0	264	350	462	812	198	324	25	12	352	124	+3	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.7
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	125	113	23	4	1	1	9	29	2	2	0	204	274	283	557	80	265	23	7	255	59	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	187	165	34	4	1	1	17	50	4	5	0	206	296	261	556	55	289	27	9	261	63	-8	+1	+4	+3	+4	0.4
2025	32	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	309	279	61	9	0	6	18	75	6	5	2	219	281	315	596	97	266	24	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	65	59	9	0	0	0	3	15	2	0	0	153	219	153	371		200	23	5	179	8	-7	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.4
2026	33	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	46	40	9	3	0	2	5	12	1	3	0	225	326	450	776	225	255	26	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	103	89	22	4	0	0	9	3	0	1	0	247	316	292	608	45	250	3	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	103	84	23	5	0	0	14	2	0	1	0	274	378	333	711	60	274	2	14	315	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	464	413	106	21	1	9	37	78	8	17	3	257	330	378	707	121	292	17	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	464	396	111	26	1	11	53	58	8	17	3	280	376	434	810	154	300	12	11	360	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	391	353	71	16	0	3	30	74	6	11	0	201	275	272	547	71	245	19	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	391	340	79	18	0	4	43	59	6	11	0	232	329	321	650	88	270	15	11	300	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	340	309	81	16	4	3	23	70	2	6	0	262	317	369	686	107	325	21	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	340	297	92	19	6	4	35	53	2	6	0	310	386	455	841	145	361	16	10	369	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	274	246	50	12	0	6	21	55	5	13	2	203	279	325	605	122	235	20	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	274	239	56	14	0	7	28	45	5	13	2	234	327	381	708	146	259	16	10	319	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	184	156	33	6	0	2	23	42	1	4	0	212	317	288	605	77	272	23	12	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	184	147	36	7	0	2	32	36	1	4	0	245	383	333	717	88	306	20	17	330	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	121	106	28	4	1	5	14	30	0	2	0	264	350	462	812	198	324	25	12	352	124	+3	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.7
2022	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	121	106	28	4	1	5	14	30	0	2	0	264	350	462	812	198	324	25	12	357	124	+3	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.7
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	125	113	23	4	1	1	9	29	2	2	0	204	274	283	557	80	265	23	7	255	59	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.2
2023	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	125	113	23	4	1	1	9	29	2	2	0	204	274	283	557	80	265	23	7	256	59	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	187	165	34	4	1	1	17	50	4	5	0	206	296	261	556	55	287	27	9	261	63	-8	+1	+4	+3	+4	0.4
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	187	164	34	4	1	1	17	50	4	5	0	207	296	262	558	55	289	27	9	262	63	-8	+1	+4	+3	+4	0.4
2025	32	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	309	279	61	9	0	6	18	75	6	5	2	219	281	315	596	97	274	24	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	309	264	70	12	0	8	31	62	6	5	2	265	353	402	755	136	315	20	10	334	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	111	99	18	3	0	2	8	27	3	3	0	182	264	273	536	91	225	24	7	240	48	-7	+1	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
2026	33	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	111	97	20	4	0	3	10	25	3	3	0	206	300	340	640	134	243	23	9	291	48	-7	+1	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
2015	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	103	93	22	4	0	0	9	3	0	1	0	237	316	280	596	43	238	3	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	464	416	106	21	1	9	37	78	8	17	3	255	330	375	705	120	285	17	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	391	352	71	16	0	3	30	74	6	11	0	202	275	273	548	71	244	19	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	340	312	81	16	4	3	23	70	2	6	0	260	317	365	683	106	317	21	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	274	246	50	12	0	6	21	55	5	13	2	203	279	325	605	122	232	20	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	184	158	33	6	0	2	23	42	1	4	0	209	317	285	601	76	271	23	12	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	121	106	28	4	1	5	14	30	0	2	0	264	350	462	812	198	324	25	12	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	125	113	23	4	1	1	9	29	2	2	0	204	274	283	557	80	265	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	187	164	34	4	1	1	17	50	4	5	0	207	296	262	558	55	289	27	9	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	309	282	61	9	0	6	18	75	6	5	2	216	281	312	593	96	266	24	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	111	99	18	3	0	2	8	27	3	3	0	182	264	273	536	91	223	24	7	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	187	164	34	4	1	1	17	50	4	5	0	207	296	262	558	55	289	27	9	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	309	282	61	9	0	6	18	75	6	5	2	216	281	312	593	96	266	24	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	111	99	18	3	0	2	8	27	3	3	0	182	264	273	536	91	223	24	7	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	214	192	41	7	1	4	16	50	4	4	1	214	286	320	606	106	265	23	7	275	72	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	133	120	25	4	0	3	10	31	2	3	1	216	287	325	612	110	266	23	8	277	72	-4	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	PHI	65%	84	77	15	3	0	1	6	20	1	1	0	204	273	298	571	94	256	24	7	261	63	-4	+0	-6	+1	+2	-0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	PHI	65%	55	50	10	2	0	1	4	13	1	1	0	205	275	302	576	97	256	24	7	263	63	-2	+0	-4	+1	+1	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	630	561	117	19	3	8	53	151	9	11	0	209	287	296	583	87	270	24	8	267	74	-25	+2	-3	+19	+14	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	121	20	3	8	55	156	9	11	0	209	287	295	583	86	271	24	8	267	74	-26	+2	-3	+19	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2826	2525	567	107	8	41	225	584	40	73	8	225	298	322	620	97	274	21	8	278	74	-31	+2	-5	+22	+17	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	131	25	2	9	52	134	9	17	2	225	299	322	621	96	275	21	8	278	74	-25	+2	-4	+18	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 46 PAwOBA .436 → .325 (−111)K% 21.7% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.74%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.22%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	9.89%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.92%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.942	12.52%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.942	11.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.71%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	7.06%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .436 → .325; ISO .342 → .243; BABIP .320 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 309 PAwOBA .328 → .263 (−64)K% 20.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.06%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	24.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.71%	÷1.075	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.93%
HBP% /PA	1.94%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.74%
Singles /BIP	24.75%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.977	×0.952	21.72%
Doubles /BIP	5.94%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.977	×0.952	4.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.977	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.96%	÷0.947	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .328 → .263; ISO .136 → .103; BABIP .315 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 146 PAwOBA .360 → .294 (−66)K% 19.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.86%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	23.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.55%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×0.992	14.42%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.64%
Singles /BIP	27.38%	÷1.023	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	23.46%
Doubles /BIP	5.95%	÷0.923	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	5.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷0.935	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.77%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .360 → .294; ISO .097 → .082; BABIP .333 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARound Rock Express · 235 PAwOBA .323 → .269 (−54)K% 16.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.17%	÷1.022	×1.290	—	—	20.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.21%	÷1.030	×0.710	—	×1.018	7.17%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	2.12%
Singles /BIP	18.67%	÷0.966	×0.900	×0.964	×1.018	17.08%
Doubles /BIP	6.63%	÷0.995	×0.810	×0.964	×1.018	5.29%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.126	×0.810	×0.964	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.22%	÷0.948	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.53%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .323 → .269; ISO .157 → .129; BABIP .261 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 340 PAwOBA .361 → .304 (−57)K% 15.6% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.59%	÷0.982	×1.290	—	—	20.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.71%	÷1.025	×0.710	—	×1.033	6.95%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.60%
Singles /BIP	25.82%	÷0.962	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	23.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.79%	÷0.974	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	6.35%
Triples /BIP	2.46%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	1.70%
Home runs /BIP	1.64%	÷0.951	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .304; ISO .145 → .115; BABIP .361 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 300 PAwOBA .294 → .245 (−49)K% 14.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.67%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	18.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.67%	÷1.056	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.16%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.88%
Singles /BIP	20.55%	÷1.014	×0.920	×0.984	×1.012	18.56%
Doubles /BIP	5.94%	÷0.964	×0.840	×0.984	×1.012	5.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.984	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.83%	÷1.035	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.43%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .294 → .245; ISO .095 → .079; BABIP .269 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 91 PAwOBA .292 → .254 (−38)K% 16.5% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.48%	÷0.992	×1.290	—	—	21.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.09%	÷1.028	×0.710	—	×1.048	8.75%
HBP% /PA	3.30%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	3.39%
Singles /BIP	19.35%	÷0.978	×0.900	×0.994	×1.048	18.56%
Doubles /BIP	8.06%	÷0.926	×0.810	×0.994	×1.048	7.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.994	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.963	×0.780	—	×1.048	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .292 → .254; ISO .065 → .058; BABIP .274 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 244 PAwOBA .366 → .290 (−77)K% 15.2% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.16%	÷0.962	×1.340	—	—	21.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.89%	÷1.046	×0.710	—	×0.998	8.05%
HBP% /PA	2.05%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	1.62%
Singles /BIP	24.26%	÷0.982	×0.910	×0.969	×0.998	21.74%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.070	×0.820	×0.969	×0.998	5.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.760	×0.969	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.55%	÷1.252	×0.920	—	×0.998	2.60%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 96, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .366 → .290; ISO .150 → .111; BABIP .323 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	1.0	686	10	12	213	288	305	+10	+1	0.8	0.8
/162	664	10	12	+10.0	+1.2	0.8	pk7: 1
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Garrett Stubbs (OGILVIE)	34	35	30	55	45	212/283/318	105	265	2	3	23%	7%	72	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Bemboom 2024 · MLB	34	42	43→40	48→45	46	210/273/318	108	268	11	6	25%	7%	68	-1.0	209/279/316	107	280	9	7	27%	8%	70	-0.9	171/253/255	85	235	5	0	27%	9%	46	-1.0
✕Alberto Castillo 2004 · MLB	34	43	46→30	48→30	43	216/269/345	128	267	13	8	24%	6%	72	-0.7	234/310/345	111	274	9	6	17%	10%	87	+0.4	226/301/297	71	274	2	2	17%	10%	72	-0.2
✕Matt Treanor 2010 · MLB	34	50	43→40	48→40	51	241/314/349	109	290	11	6	20%	8%	91	+0.6	213/304/311	98	254	10	6	19%	10%	78	-0.3	195/296/276	81	234	8	4	19%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Pete Orr 2013 · MLB	34	46→45	40→45	56→55	41	223/262/319	96	272	7	22	21%	4%	63	-1.4	225/257/314	89	285	6	15	23%	3%	59	-1.7	224/253/303	80	284	4	14	22%	3%	53	-1.3
✕Luke Carlin 2015 · AAA	34	41	41→45	44→45	50	202/272/299	97	245	9	6	22%	8%	63	-1.3	192/277/290	98	244	7	8	23%	9%	63	-1.3	122/237/178	56	163	0	3	22%	11%	24	-1.4
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2018 · MLB	34	39→43	42→45	47→40	43	197/255/301	104	246	10	4	24%	6%	57	-1.8	189/255/288	99	253	9	4	27%	6%	55	-2.0	160/230/239	79	217	6	0	28%	6%	33	-1.2
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→40	45	232/278/351	119	271	12	9	20%	6%	76	-0.4	235/277/333	98	279	10	8	19%	4%	72	-0.7	248/274/300	52	290	6	0	16%	1%	60	-0.5
✕Munenori Kawasaki 2015 · MLB	34	50→54	36→30	51→50	52	235/304/299	65	282	2	9	17%	8%	74	-0.5	228/292/293	65	282	3	17	19%	8%	68	-1.0	222/287/267	46	278	1	23	19%	8%	60	-0.9
✕Fernando Rios 2013 · AAA	34	47	41→40	49→50	47	230/283/323	93	269	9	10	18%	6%	72	-0.7	225/277/321	96	263	9	10	17%	6%	69	-0.9	215/256/250	35	242	3	4	12%	4%	43	-0.6
✕Ramon Valdez 2012 · AAA	35	48	39→30	54→55	46	230/292/317	87	277	6	18	19%	6%	74	-0.5	246/319/322	76	279	5	22	13%	7%	86	+0.3	256/334/311	55	287	2	26	11%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2019 · AAA	35	46	39→40	49→55	43	218/276/297	79	299	6	11	28%	7%	63	-1.3	207/259/340	133	322	16	10	39%	6%	68	-1.0	127/163/250	124	192	20	5	47%	4%	9	-1.0
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2016 · AAA	34	43	41→45	46→40	39	211/261/303	93	293	9	5	30%	6%	59	-1.6	208/256/302	94	292	9	5	30%	5%	57	-1.8	181/225/266	86	255	10	2	33%	4%	34	-1.1
✕Juan Centeno 2022 · MLB	32	47	40→45	49→40	47	226/277/318	91	267	7	6	18%	6%	68	-1.0	225/267/331	106	285	10	6	24%	5%	68	-1.0	219/258/318	98	281	10	3	25%	4%	58	-1.0
✕Drew Butera 2019 · MLB	35	44	45→40	47→40	48	221/286/345	124	270	12	4	23%	8%	78	-0.3	199/268/313	114	265	11	6	28%	8%	65	-1.2	170/243/272	102	236	10	5	31%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Anthony Recker 2018 · MLB	34	40→48	45→50	49→45	43	203/272/329	126	276	13	5	30%	7%	70	-0.8	209/270/358	149	284	17	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	182/243/344	162	237	21	0	32%	7%	60	-0.8
✕Gary Bennett 2006 · MLB	34	47	39→40	44→40	52	224/287/308	85	255	6	4	15%	8%	70	-0.8	229/281/337	108	253	11	5	14%	6%	74	-0.5	229/268/322	93	251	11	2	14%	5%	66	-0.3
✕Humberto Sosa 2019 · AAA	33	42→48	42→45	49→45	43	207/255/305	98	260	10	7	24%	6%	57	-1.8	237/292/414	177	291	22	8	26%	6%	97	+1.1	233/288/455	221	269	30	0	26%	6%	103	+0.5
✕Hector Paez 2012 · AAA	34	48	41→45	48→40	42	229/253/318	90	244	9	7	12%	2%	59	-1.7	217/253/318	101	238	11	5	14%	3%	59	-1.6	202/238/294	92	220	11	1	14%	2%	48	-0.8
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2016 · MLB	34	43	38→45	47→50	40	210/251/290	80	270	6	5	24%	4%	52	-2.2	216/260/339	123	280	14	6	27%	5%	68	-1.0	199/236/322	123	255	15	0	28%	3%	52	-1.1
✕Ed Rogers 2013 · AAA	34	44→50	41→40	49→50	43	215/267/315	100	261	8	11	21%	5%	64	-1.3	235/289/337	102	286	11	12	21%	6%	78	-0.3	245/292/305	60	291	9	12	19%	4%	70	-0.3

Garrett Stubbs

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps