Dixon Machado

2B Iowa Cubs

Age 35 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA HR -8% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	31	AAA/ROKHOU	321	.230/.382/.355	7	1	72	—	.206/.311/.310
2024	32	AAA/ROKHOU	202	.228/.342/.305	3	1	50	—	.199/.280/.256
2025	33	AAACHC	331	.221/.348/.301	4	4	53	—	.197/.283/.245
2027PROJ10% MLB	35	MLBCHC	20	.225/.307/.321	0	0	79	0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBCHC	2	.213/.295/.298	0	0	69	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2017-2022

Speed55

xwOBA23

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

CompsDaniel Hinojosa (age 35) · Fernando Rios (age 34) · Matt Treanor (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .307 / .321

PA20

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP282

ISO56

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2017-2022

CONTACT

xAVG

350.239

POWER

Barrel%

102.8

Avg EV

1084.7

SPEED

Sprint

5527.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$1.0M
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	17	ROK	VSL Tigers	—	277	234	48	6	1	3	32	32	5	27	6	205	314	278	591	73	223	12	12	274	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	183	165	43	4	3	0	14	27	0	12	3	261	318	321	640	61	307	15	8	286	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	491	429	101	1	2	0	46	77	4	25	5	235	315	247	562	12	285	16	9	261	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	74	68	8	0	2	0	5	19	0	0	0	118	178	176	355	59	163	26	7	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	486	417	81	16	1	2	51	60	1	23	5	194	284	252	535	58	222	12	10	244	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	163	149	32	5	2	1	10	19	0	1	0	215	264	295	559	81	240	12	6	248	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	30	28	9	2	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	321	345	393	738	71	391	17	3	320	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	45	38	6	0	0	0	7	12	0	1	0	158	289	158	447		231	27	16	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	342	292	89	23	1	5	40	36	3	8	5	305	394	442	836	137	331	11	12	368	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	187	159	40	8	1	1	23	34	1	2	1	252	350	333	683	82	312	18	12	310	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	78	68	16	3	0	0	7	14	0	1	0	235	307	279	586	44	296	18	9	263	66	-3	+0	+2	+8	+2	0.9
2015	23	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	567	509	133	22	1	4	36	85	4	15	3	261	315	332	647	71	305	15	6	286	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	126	105	31	8	0	4	18	12	1	1	0	295	403	486	889	190	303	10	14	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	569	492	131	28	2	4	58	75	6	17	5	266	351	356	706	89	305	13	10	317	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	181	166	43	5	1	1	10	32	1	1	0	259	305	319	624	60	311	18	6	278	77	-5	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.2
2018	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	233	214	44	13	1	1	14	41	3	1	1	206	264	290	554	84	249	18	6	252	57	-12	-0	-2	+1	+5	-0.7
2018	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	171	147	33	5	0	1	18	28	3	4	2	224	321	279	600	54	271	16	11	279	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	393	329	86	19	1	17	54	79	4	0	2	261	372	480	852	219	295	20	14	372	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	200	294	200	494		300	29	6	244	53	-1	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.6
2022	30	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	522	461	134	26	1	6	53	64	7	10	3	291	372	390	763	100	327	12	10	347	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	293	239	55	7	1	7	51	48	2	1	0	230	370	356	726	126	259	16	17	336	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	ROK	FCL Astros	—	28	17	4	2	0	0	8	3	2	0	0	235	519	353	871	118	267	11	29	408	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	182	153	34	3	0	3	23	25	0	1	0	222	324	301	625	78	240	14	13	283	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	ROK	FCL Astros	—	20	14	4	1	0	0	3	4	3	0	0	286	500	357	857	71	400	20	15	415	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	331	272	60	10	0	4	50	59	3	4	2	221	348	301	649	81	264	18	15	302	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	509	463	106	21	2	2	32	92	5	3	1	229	286	296	582	67	280	18	6	263	64	-22	+0	+2	+17	+11	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	17	ROK MLE	VSL Tigers	—	277	243	36	4	1	2	23	39	5	27	6	148	236	198	434	49	159	14	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	—	183	170	36	3	2	0	9	39	0	12	3	212	251	253	504	41	265	21	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	491	445	99	1	2	0	30	108	4	25	5	222	278	234	511	11	280	22	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	486	428	80	17	1	2	40	85	1	23	5	187	258	245	503	58	216	17	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	163	152	32	5	2	1	7	27	0	1	0	211	245	289	535	79	237	17	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	—	30	28	6	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	214	241	250	491	36	307	23	3	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	342	302	90	23	1	4	30	43	3	8	5	298	367	421	788	123	323	13	9	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	187	165	38	8	1	1	17	49	1	2	1	230	306	309	615	79	306	26	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	78	68	16	3	0	0	7	14	0	1	0	235	307	279	586	44	296	18	9	266	66	-3	+0	+2	+8	+2	0.9
2015	23	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	567	521	134	19	1	4	24	102	4	15	3	257	295	321	616	63	297	18	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	569	508	131	24	2	4	42	89	6	17	5	258	322	337	659	79	294	16	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	181	166	43	5	1	1	10	32	1	1	0	259	305	319	624	60	311	18	6	282	77	-5	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.2
2018	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	233	215	44	13	1	1	13	41	3	1	1	205	260	288	548	84	249	18	6	252	57	-12	-0	-2	+1	+5	-0.7
2018	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	171	152	31	4	0	1	13	33	3	4	2	204	280	250	530	46	254	19	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	393	345	72	15	1	13	38	99	4	0	2	209	295	371	666	162	241	25	10	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	200	294	200	494		300	29	6	246	53	-1	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.6
2022	30	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	522	478	122	22	1	4	36	78	7	10	3	255	317	331	647	75	297	15	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	293	257	53	7	1	6	33	58	2	1	0	206	301	311	613	105	237	20	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	28	20	4	2	0	0	5	4	2	0	0	200	407	300	707	100	200	14	18	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	182	161	32	3	0	2	15	30	0	1	0	199	267	255	522	56	214	16	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	20	15	3	1	0	0	2	6	3	0	0	200	400	267	667	67	303	30	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	331	290	57	8	0	2	32	71	3	4	2	197	283	245	528	48	246	21	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK MLE	VSL Tigers	—	277	243	36	4	1	2	23	39	5	27	6	148	236	198	434	49	166	14	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK RAW	VSL Tigers	—	277	234	48	6	1	3	32	32	5	27	6	205	314	278	591	73	223	12	12	274	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	—	183	170	36	3	2	0	9	39	0	12	3	212	251	253	504	41	271	21	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers	—	183	165	43	4	3	0	14	27	0	12	3	261	318	321	640	61	307	15	8	286	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	565	513	113	1	2	0	35	124	4	25	5	220	275	230	505	10	289	22	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	565	497	109	1	4	0	51	96	4	25	5	219	297	237	535	18	270	17	9	248	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	486	428	80	17	1	2	40	85	1	23	5	187	258	245	503	58	228	17	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	486	417	81	16	1	2	51	60	1	23	5	194	284	252	535	58	222	12	10	244	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	238	224	47	8	2	1	9	42	0	2	0	210	240	277	517	67	254	18	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	238	215	47	7	2	1	18	36	0	2	0	219	279	284	563	65	258	15	8	254	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	529	467	128	31	2	5	47	92	4	10	6	274	346	381	727	107	329	17	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	529	451	129	31	2	6	63	70	4	10	6	286	378	404	782	118	325	13	12	348	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	771	706	179	26	1	5	37	139	5	17	3	254	295	314	610	61	308	18	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	771	682	180	33	1	8	61	111	5	17	3	264	329	350	679	87	304	14	8	301	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	569	508	131	24	2	4	42	89	6	17	5	258	322	337	659	79	304	16	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	569	492	131	28	2	4	58	75	6	17	5	266	351	356	706	89	305	13	10	317	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	181	166	43	5	1	1	10	32	1	1	0	259	305	319	624	60	311	18	6	282	77	-5	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.2
2017	25	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	181	166	43	5	1	1	10	32	1	1	0	259	305	319	624	60	311	18	6	278	77	-5	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.2
2018	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	404	367	77	18	1	2	26	74	6	5	3	210	273	281	554	71	257	18	6	248	54	-22	-0	-2	+1	+9	-1.4
2018	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	404	361	77	18	1	2	32	69	6	5	3	213	288	285	574	72	258	17	8	263	54	-22	-0	-2	+1	+9	-1.4
2019	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	393	345	72	15	1	13	38	99	4	0	2	209	295	371	666	162	252	25	10	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	393	329	86	19	1	17	54	79	4	0	2	261	372	480	852	219	295	20	14	372	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	539	493	125	22	1	4	37	83	8	10	3	254	316	327	643	73	297	15	7	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	539	476	137	26	1	6	54	69	8	10	3	288	370	384	754	97	326	13	10	344	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	321	278	57	9	1	6	37	62	4	1	0	205	307	309	617	104	241	19	12	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	321	256	59	9	1	7	59	51	4	1	0	230	382	355	738	125	260	16	18	342	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	202	177	35	4	0	2	16	36	3	1	0	198	276	254	530	56	231	18	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	202	167	38	4	0	3	26	29	3	1	0	228	342	305	647	78	252	14	13	296	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	331	290	57	8	0	2	32	71	3	4	2	197	283	245	528	48	250	21	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	331	272	60	10	0	4	50	59	3	4	2	221	348	301	649	81	264	18	15	302	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK MLE	VSL Tigers	—	277	247	36	4	1	2	23	39	5	27	6	146	236	194	430	49	159	14	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	—	183	172	36	3	2	0	9	39	0	12	3	209	251	250	501	41	265	21	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	565	521	113	1	2	0	35	124	4	25	5	217	275	226	502	10	280	22	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	486	442	80	17	1	2	40	85	1	23	5	181	258	238	496	57	216	17	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	238	227	47	8	2	1	9	42	0	2	0	207	240	273	513	66	248	18	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	529	473	128	31	2	5	47	92	4	10	6	271	346	376	722	106	317	17	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	771	723	179	26	1	5	37	139	5	17	3	248	295	307	603	59	297	18	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	569	516	131	24	2	4	42	89	6	17	5	254	322	331	653	78	294	16	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	181	168	43	5	1	1	10	32	1	1	0	256	305	315	621	60	311	18	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	404	369	77	18	1	2	26	74	6	5	3	209	273	279	552	70	251	18	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	393	348	72	15	1	13	38	99	4	0	2	207	295	368	662	161	241	25	10	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	539	489	125	22	1	4	37	83	8	10	3	256	316	329	645	74	297	15	7	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	321	277	57	9	1	6	37	62	4	1	0	206	307	310	618	105	234	19	12	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	202	181	35	4	0	2	16	36	3	1	0	193	276	249	524	55	223	18	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	331	293	57	8	0	2	32	71	3	4	2	195	283	242	525	48	246	21	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	202	181	35	4	0	2	16	36	3	1	0	193	276	249	524	55	223	18	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	331	293	57	8	0	2	32	71	3	4	2	195	283	242	525	48	246	21	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	CHC	10%	314	278	62	12	1	4	30	69	3	5	2	223	305	318	624	96	279	22	10	285	79	-8	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	CHC	10%	20	18	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	225	307	321	628	97	282	20	10	287	79	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	CHC	1%	151	135	29	5	1	2	14	35	1	1	0	212	293	295	588	83	269	23	9	270	69	-6	+0	-5	+1	+3	-0.7
2028	36	MLB CTX	CHC	1%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	213	295	298	592	84	272	0	0	272	69	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	511	465	106	21	2	2	32	92	5	3	1	228	285	295	579	67	278	18	6	263	63	-22	+0	+2	+17	+11	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	136	27	3	3	41	117	6	4	1	230	287	301	588	71	280	18	6	263	63	-28	+0	+2	+22	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6344	5690	1286	208	20	54	472	1186	57	159	44	226	292	298	590	72	275	19	7	261	63	-32	+1	-3	+19	+19	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	132	21	2	6	48	122	6	16	5	226	292	300	592	74	275	19	7	261	63	-24	+0	-2	+14	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 331 PAwOBA .298 → .247 (−51)K% 17.8% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.82%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.11%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.942	9.77%
HBP% /PA	0.91%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.80%
Singles /BIP	21.60%	÷0.949	×0.930	×1.050	×0.942	20.93%
Doubles /BIP	4.69%	÷1.033	×0.830	×1.050	×0.942	3.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.939	×0.970	×1.050	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.88%	÷1.125	×0.700	—	×0.942	1.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .298 → .247; ISO .081 → .058; BABIP .264 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 182 PAwOBA .282 → .237 (−46)K% 13.7% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.74%	÷1.006	×1.200	—	—	16.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.64%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.952	8.12%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷1.035	×0.930	×1.048	×0.952	19.60%
Doubles /BIP	2.34%	÷0.953	×0.830	×1.048	×0.952	2.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.048	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.34%	÷0.903	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.73%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .282 → .237; ISO .078 → .065; BABIP .240 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Astros · 20 PAwOBA .406 → .285 (−121)K% 20.0% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.006	×1.440	—	—	28.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷1.033	×0.620	—	×0.940	8.46%
HBP% /PA	15.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	10.15%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷0.984	×0.820	—	×0.940	23.51%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	6.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.111	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 87, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .406 → .285; ISO .071 → .051; BABIP .400 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 293 PAwOBA .329 → .271 (−58)K% 16.4% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	19.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.41%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×0.962	11.24%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.62%
Singles /BIP	20.94%	÷0.981	×0.930	×1.014	×0.962	19.36%
Doubles /BIP	3.66%	÷0.882	×0.830	×1.014	×0.962	3.36%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷1.056	×0.970	×1.014	×0.962	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	3.66%	÷0.896	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 76, 3B 111, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .329 → .271; ISO .126 → .105; BABIP .259 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Astros · 28 PAwOBA .415 → .303 (−112)K% 10.7% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.71%	÷1.058	×1.440	—	—	14.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	28.57%	÷1.007	×0.620	—	×0.940	16.54%
HBP% /PA	7.14%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	4.83%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.014	×0.820	—	×0.940	10.86%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.939	×0.720	—	×0.940	10.29%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.379	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 112, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (11.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .415 → .303; ISO .118 → .109; BABIP .267 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 522 PAwOBA .339 → .290 (−49)K% 12.3% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.26%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	14.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.15%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.92%
HBP% /PA	1.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.23%
Singles /BIP	25.44%	÷0.968	×0.930	×1.001	×0.972	23.77%
Doubles /BIP	6.55%	÷0.967	×0.830	×1.001	×0.972	5.47%
Triples /BIP	0.25%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.001	×0.972	0.26%
Home runs /BIP	1.51%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.04%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .339 → .290; ISO .100 → .079; BABIP .327 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAIowa Cubs · 393 PAwOBA .362 → .286 (−76)K% 20.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.10%	÷1.025	×1.290	—	—	25.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.23%	÷0.968	×0.710	—	×1.003	9.73%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	1.00%
Singles /BIP	19.60%	÷0.993	×0.900	×0.950	×1.003	16.93%
Doubles /BIP	7.60%	÷1.014	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	5.79%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷1.029	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	6.80%	÷1.050	×0.780	—	×1.003	5.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 106, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .362 → .286; ISO .219 → .165; BABIP .295 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 171 PAwOBA .272 → .243 (−30)K% 16.4% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.37%	÷1.011	×1.200	—	—	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.980	×0.690	—	×1.018	7.54%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.68%
Singles /BIP	22.69%	÷1.005	×0.930	×1.016	×1.018	21.72%
Doubles /BIP	4.20%	÷1.038	×0.830	×1.016	×1.018	3.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.038	×0.970	×1.016	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.84%	÷0.893	×0.840	—	×1.018	0.80%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 108, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .272 → .243; ISO .054 → .049; BABIP .271 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Paul Popovich'64-'75 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,909 PA	2.9	1,909	14	4	233*	288*	323*	+10	+20	0.2	0.9
/162	664	5	1	+3.5	+7.0	0.1	pk7: 2
#3Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.8	514	2	3	228	281	298	+2	+3	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	3	4	+2.4	+3.4	-0.7	pk7: -1
#4David Howard'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	11	23	220*	280*	301*	+10	+23	-1.6	-0.8
/162	664	4	9	+3.7	+8.5	-0.6	pk7: -0
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Enrique Wilson'97-'05 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	22	14	233*	276*	337*	+8	+1	-2.5	-1.4
/162	664	10	6	+3.4	+0.4	-1.1	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dixon Machado (OGILVIE)	35	—	—	—	—	221/303/316	95	279	3	3	22%	10%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2019 · AAA	35	46	39→40	49→55	43	218/276/297	79	299	6	11	28%	7%	63	-1.3	207/259/340	133	322	16	10	39%	6%	68	-1.0	127/163/250	124	192	20	5	47%	4%	9	-1.0
✕Fernando Rios 2013 · AAA	34	47	41→40	49→50	47	230/283/323	93	269	9	10	18%	6%	72	-0.7	225/277/321	96	263	9	10	17%	6%	69	-0.9	215/256/250	35	242	3	4	12%	4%	43	-0.6
✕Matt Treanor 2011 · MLB	35	44	42→40	42→40	51	217/292/318	101	250	11	5	18%	8%	75	-0.5	213/311/316	103	260	10	7	21%	11%	82	+0.0	192/310/272	79	243	7	5	22%	12%	71	-0.3
✕Doug Bernier 2015 · MLB	35	47→52	39→40	45	44	226/278/314	89	286	6	7	23%	6%	68	-1.0	221/274/303	82	283	7	6	23%	6%	64	-1.3	211/266/280	69	273	7	4	24%	6%	53	-1.3
✕Trinidad Robles 2008 · AAA	35	46	42→40	46→45	46	227/280/332	105	272	10	10	20%	6%	73	-0.6	209/264/288	79	260	6	7	21%	6%	57	-1.8	208/262/234	26	270	0	0	21%	5%	41	-1.2
✕Sergio Palafox 2015 · AAA	35	47	37→40	49→45	43	225/264/298	73	264	5	11	17%	4%	58	-1.7	226/273/321	95	269	8	11	19%	5%	68	-1.0	215/255/278	63	250	4	5	15%	4%	48	-0.4
✕Gary Bennett 2007 · MLB	35	46	42→40	43→40	50	223/281/323	100	253	10	4	17%	7%	72	-0.7	234/286/354	120	252	13	7	13%	6%	80	-0.1	241/277/321	80	257	7	4	9%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Iker Franco 2016 · AAA	35	47	39→50	47→40	47	226/279/307	81	270	8	4	19%	7%	67	-1.1	237/291/335	98	295	10	5	22%	7%	78	-0.3	233/284/323	90	290	12	0	23%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Sandy León 2024 · MLB	35	41→51	41→45	46→30	48	199/279/294	95	266	9	4	27%	9%	65	-1.2	168/243/261	93	254	11	5	36%	8%	44	-2.8	127/200/199	72	195	10	3	39%	8%	13	-1.9
✕Sergio Guerrero 2010 · AAA	35	52	37→40	48→40	50	241/299/306	65	258	5	9	9%	6%	74	-0.5	238/305/325	87	269	8	9	14%	6%	81	-0.1	226/304/253	27	251	4	0	11%	6%	63	-0.3
✕Kevin Flores 2019 · AAA	34	45→49	37→40	47→45	43	214/263/284	70	261	4	8	20%	5%	55	-1.9	213/263/294	81	276	6	9	24%	5%	57	-1.8	191/232/221	30	252	0	3	23%	4%	26	-1.2
✕Chris Stewart 2018 · MLB	36	46	37→45	48→45	50	216/281/289	73	248	5	4	15%	7%	63	-1.3	210/269/293	83	242	7	5	16%	7%	60	-1.6	184/241/225	41	213	0	0	13%	6%	32	-1.1
✕Miguel Flores 2006 · AAA	35	52→58	38→30	50→55	55	245/305/327	81	263	6	14	9%	8%	81	-0.1	258/310/331	73	278	4	20	8%	6%	83	+0.1	268/318/330	62	288	3	21	8%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Luke Carlin 2015 · AAA	34	41	41→45	44→45	50	202/272/299	97	245	9	6	22%	8%	63	-1.3	192/277/290	98	244	7	8	23%	9%	63	-1.3	122/237/178	56	163	0	3	22%	11%	24	-1.4
✕Francisco Cordoba 2019 · AAA	35	42→52	40→45	46→40	43	207/257/291	84	252	8	6	21%	5%	55	-2.0	214/270/360	146	242	19	5	21%	6%	77	-0.3	193/250/339	146	204	22	0	20%	6%	63	-0.9
✕Robinson Cancel 2011 · MLB	35	46	40→45	49→50	47	221/263/314	93	246	7	13	14%	5%	62	-1.4	240/290/341	101	289	9	15	20%	6%	78	-0.3	248/299/342	93	300	9	16	19%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Curt Casali 2024 · MLB	35	43	43→50	47→30	51	211/304/320	109	285	11	4	28%	10%	81	-0.1	233/322/344	111	290	10	6	22%	10%	93	+0.8	235/335/321	87	290	7	0	19%	11%	92	+0.3
✕José Yépez 2015 · AAA	34	45	37→40	47→30	46	210/265/284	74	245	5	5	16%	5%	57	-1.8	203/252/289	86	251	8	9	22%	5%	53	-2.1	154/187/183	29	190	3	4	21%	3%	2	-1.4
✕Francisco Arias 2012 · AAA	34	52→47	40	45	47	247/296/346	98	267	7	7	11%	4%	82	+0.0	229/264/296	67	250	4	4	10%	3%	58	-1.7	226/254/272	45	244	2	0	8%	2%	46	-1.6
✕Ryan Hanigan 2017 · MLB	36	44→54	41→40	47→40	51	215/296/310	96	260	9	4	21%	9%	75	-0.5	219/284/309	90	283	9	5	24%	7%	70	-0.9	229/291/287	58	311	6	0	26%	7%	72	-0.2

Dixon Machado

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps