Dixon Machado — OGILVIE

Dixon Machado2B Iowa Cubs

Age 34 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 304 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .308 / .319

PA304

HR5

K%21

BB%10

ISO96

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 31

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2017-2022

CONTACT41

Whiff%

778.2%

xwOBA

230.277

POWER31

Barrel%

102.8

Avg EV

1084.7

EYE70

Chase%

8325.3%

SPEED48

Sprint

5527.7

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.5M
Totals		$0.6M		$0.0M	-$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	17	ROK	VSL Tigers	—	277	246	42	5	1	2	20	46	5	27	6	171	247	224	471	53	199	17	7	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK	VSL Tigers	—	277	234	48	6	1	3	32	32	5	27	6	205	314	278	591	73	223	12	12	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	183	170	35	3	2	0	9	39	0	12	3	206	246	247	493	41	263	21	5	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	183	165	43	4	3	0	14	27	0	12	3	261	318	321	640	61	307	15	8	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A	2 teams	—	565	516	106	1	2	0	32	128	4	25	5	205	257	215	472	10	272	23	6	212	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A	2 teams	—	565	497	109	1	4	0	51	96	4	25	5	219	297	237	535	18	270	17	9	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	486	428	74	17	1	1	40	85	1	23	5	173	245	224	470	51	213	17	8	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	486	417	81	16	1	2	51	60	1	23	5	194	284	252	535	58	222	12	10	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+	3 teams	—	238	225	47	9	2	1	8	41	0	2	0	209	236	280	516	71	251	17	3	220	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+	3 teams	—	238	215	47	7	2	1	18	36	0	2	0	219	279	284	563	65	258	15	8	254	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	2 teams	—	529	469	121	32	1	6	45	94	4	10	6	258	328	369	697	111	308	18	9	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	2 teams	—	529	451	129	31	2	6	63	70	4	10	6	286	378	404	782	118	325	13	12	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA	3 teams	—	771	710	174	24	1	5	33	139	5	17	3	245	283	303	586	58	297	18	4	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA	3 teams	—	771	682	180	33	1	8	61	111	5	17	3	264	329	350	679	87	304	14	8	301	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	569	510	124	21	2	4	40	88	6	17	5	243	306	316	621	73	285	15	7	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	569	492	131	28	2	4	58	75	6	17	5	266	351	356	706	89	305	13	10	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	181	166	44	5	1	1	10	32	1	1	0	265	311	325	636	60	319	18	6	283	75	-5	+0	+1	+2	+5	0.3
2017	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	181	166	43	5	1	1	10	32	1	1	0	259	305	319	624	60	311	18	6	278	71	-6	+0	+1	+2	+5	0.2
2018	26	MLB	2 teams	—	404	366	77	18	1	2	27	74	6	5	3	210	276	281	557	71	258	18	7	248	48	-24	-0	-2	+1	+11	-1.3
2018	26	MLB	2 teams	—	404	361	77	18	1	2	32	69	6	5	3	213	288	285	574	72	258	17	8	263	60	-18	-0	-2	+1	+11	-0.8
2019	27	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	393	344	70	14	1	12	39	97	4	0	2	203	292	355	647	151	246	25	10	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	393	329	86	19	1	17	54	79	4	0	2	261	372	480	852	219	295	20	14	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA	2 teams	—	539	490	127	22	1	5	40	90	8	10	3	259	325	339	664	80	308	17	7	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA	2 teams	—	539	476	137	26	1	6	54	69	8	10	3	288	370	384	754	97	326	13	10	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA	2 teams	—	321	276	59	10	1	7	39	66	4	1	0	214	320	333	653	120	254	21	12	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA	2 teams	—	321	256	59	9	1	7	59	51	4	1	0	230	382	355	738	125	260	16	18	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA	2 teams	—	202	176	36	4	0	3	17	38	3	1	0	205	286	278	564	74	237	19	8	250	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA	2 teams	—	202	167	38	4	0	3	26	29	3	1	0	228	342	305	647	78	252	14	13	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	331	288	64	9	0	3	34	72	3	4	2	222	311	285	595	62	282	22	10	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	331	272	60	10	0	4	50	59	3	4	2	221	348	301	649	81	264	18	15	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	34	MLB	CHC	—	304	268	61	10	1	5	30	65	3	3	1	228	312	328	641	101	277	21	10	289	79	-7	+0	+1	+1	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	35	MLB	CHC	6%	246	218	48	7	1	4	24	54	2	2	1	220	303	317	620	96	269	22	10	278	71	-8	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.5
2028	36	MLB	CHC	0%	189	168	34	5	0	2	18	43	1	1	0	202	283	268	551	65	262	23	10	267	63	-8	+0	-6	+1	+5	-0.7
2027	35	MLB	CHC	6%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		270	21	7	274	68	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
2028	36	MLB	CHC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		263	—	—	263	59	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	523	477	108	21	2	2	33	95	5	3	1	226	284	291	575	65	277	18	6	263	59	-24	+0	+1	+17	+15	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	133	26	2	2	41	118	6	4	1	224	282	285	567	61	275	18	6	263	59	-30	+0	+2	+22	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	6728	6034	1343	216	19	63	505	1291	60	161	45	223	289	296	585	73	271	19	8	260	57	-328	+14	-6	+39	+191	-9.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	130	21	2	6	49	125	6	16	4	223	290	297	587	74	273	19	8	260	57	-32	+2	-1	+4	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	17	ROK	VSL Tigers	—	277	234	48	6	1	3	32	32	5	27	6	205	314	278	591	73	223	12	12	274	68	-10	+3	—	—	+8	0.1
2010	18	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	183	165	43	4	3	0	14	27	0	12	3	261	318	321	640	61	307	15	8	286	77	-5	+1	—	—	+5	0.2
2011	19	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	491	429	101	1	2	0	46	77	4	25	5	235	315	247	562	12	285	16	9	261	58	-23	+3	—	—	+14	-0.6
2011	19	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	74	68	8	0	2	0	5	19	0	0	0	118	178	176	355	59	163	26	7	164	-16	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2012	20	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	486	417	81	16	1	2	51	60	1	23	5	194	284	252	535	58	222	12	10	244	45	-30	+3	—	—	+14	-1.4
2013	21	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	163	149	32	5	2	1	10	19	0	1	0	215	264	295	559	81	240	12	6	248	48	-10	+0	—	—	+5	-0.5
2013	21	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	30	28	9	2	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	321	345	393	738	71	391	17	3	320	103	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2013	21	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	45	38	6	0	0	0	7	12	0	1	0	158	289	158	447		231	27	16	229	34	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2014	22	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	342	292	89	23	1	5	40	36	3	8	5	305	394	442	836	137	331	11	12	368	140	+15	-0	—	—	+10	2.5
2014	22	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	187	159	40	8	1	1	23	34	1	2	1	252	350	333	683	82	312	18	12	310	95	-1	+0	—	—	+5	0.4
2015	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	78	68	16	3	0	0	7	14	0	1	0	235	307	279	586	44	296	18	9	263	59	-4	+0	+2	+8	+2	0.9
2015	23	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	567	509	133	22	1	4	36	85	4	15	3	261	315	332	647	71	305	15	6	286	77	-15	+2	—	—	+16	0.3
2015	23	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	126	105	31	8	0	4	18	12	1	1	0	295	403	486	889	190	303	10	14	390	156	+8	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2016	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	569	492	131	28	2	4	58	75	6	17	5	266	351	356	706	89	305	13	10	317	100	+0	+1	—	—	+16	1.8
2017	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	181	166	43	5	1	1	10	32	1	1	0	259	305	319	624	60	311	18	6	278	71	-6	+0	+1	+2	+5	0.2
2018	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	233	214	44	13	1	1	14	41	3	1	1	206	264	290	554	84	249	18	6	252	51	-13	-0	-2	+1	+7	-0.7
2018	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	171	147	33	5	0	1	18	28	3	4	2	224	321	279	600	54	271	16	11	279	72	-5	+0	—	—	+5	-0.1
2019	27	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	393	329	86	19	1	17	54	79	4	0	2	261	372	480	852	219	295	20	14	372	143	+19	-1	—	—	+11	3.0
2022	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	200	294	200	494		300	29	6	244	45	-1	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.6
2022	30	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	522	461	134	26	1	6	53	64	7	10	3	291	372	390	763	100	327	12	10	347	124	+14	+1	—	—	+15	3.0
2023	31	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	293	239	55	7	1	7	51	48	2	1	0	230	370	356	726	126	259	16	17	336	115	+5	+0	—	—	+8	1.4
2023	31	ROK	FCL Astros	—	28	17	4	2	0	0	8	3	2	0	0	235	519	353	871	118	267	11	29	408	171	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	32	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	182	153	34	3	0	3	23	25	0	1	0	222	324	301	625	78	240	14	13	283	75	-5	+0	—	—	+5	0.0
2024	32	ROK	FCL Astros	—	20	14	4	1	0	0	3	4	3	0	0	286	500	357	857	71	400	20	15	415	176	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	33	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	331	272	60	10	0	4	50	59	3	4	2	221	348	301	649	81	264	18	15	302	89	-4	+0	—	—	+9	0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	509	463	106	21	2	2	32	92	5	3	1	229	286	296	582	67	280	18	6	263	59	-23	+0	+2	+17	+14	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#3Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#4Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	725	5	4	223	284	296	+3	+4	-0.9	-0.7
	/162	664	5	4	223	284	296	+2.4	+3.3	-0.8	pk7: -1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dixon Machado (OGILVIE)	34	34→41	31	48	70	223/308/319	95	277	5	3	21%	10%	79	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gary Bennett 2006 · MLB	34	48	39→40	44→40	54	226/298/312	86	259	6	4	15%	9%	72	-0.2	231/288/340	109	256	11	5	14%	7%	75	-0.0	231/277/325	94	254	11	2	14%	6%	59	-0.3
✕Matt Treanor 2010 · MLB	34	50	43→40	48→40	51	242/318/352	109	293	11	6	20%	9%	92	+1.2	214/306/314	100	256	10	6	19%	10%	77	+0.1	196/300/280	84	236	9	4	19%	11%	64	-0.3
✕José Yépez 2015 · AAA	34	45	38→40	47→30	46	213/268/290	78	249	5	5	17%	5%	54	-1.4	205/250/291	86	256	8	9	22%	5%	46	-2.0	161/194/192	30	203	3	4	22%	3%	-6	-1.3
✕Alberto Castillo 2003 · MLB	33	43	40→30	46→30	47	206/266/296	90	253	7	6	21%	7%	55	-1.4	230/301/357	127	271	12	7	19%	9%	85	+0.7	235/311/307	73	284	2	2	17%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Fernando Rios 2013 · AAA	34	47	41→40	49→50	46	230/279/324	95	270	9	10	19%	6%	67	-0.5	228/275/324	96	269	9	10	18%	5%	65	-0.7	234/274/269	35	267	3	4	13%	4%	48	-0.4
✕Luke Carlin 2015 · AAA	34	42	42→45	44→45	50	207/279/306	99	253	9	6	22%	9%	63	-0.8	196/281/296	100	248	7	8	22%	9%	62	-0.9	132/255/194	62	174	0	3	21%	12%	25	-1.1
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2018 · MLB	34	41→45	43→45	47→40	44	204/264/311	108	255	10	4	24%	6%	58	-1.2	196/264/298	102	261	9	4	27%	7%	55	-1.4	171/246/256	85	231	6	0	27%	7%	35	-0.9
✕Sandy León 2023 · MLB	34	42→52	42→45	46→30	51	205/289/303	98	266	10	4	26%	10%	67	-0.5	190/272/294	104	273	12	4	32%	9%	58	-1.2	150/233/248	98	219	14	2	37%	9%	28	-1.1
✕Edgar Vega 2006 · AAA	34	44	36→30	48→30	49	208/275/267	59	261	4	5	21%	8%	51	-1.7	221/257/305	84	266	6	5	19%	4%	52	-1.6	228/251/314	86	268	6	2	17%	3%	47	-0.7
✕Charlie Culberson 2023 · MLB	34	48→49	45	47→50	44	238/287/366	127	298	12	13	24%	6%	81	+0.4	226/275/342	116	315	12	12	30%	6%	70	-0.3	182/208/225	43	295	5	14	39%	3%	11	-0.8
✕Bryan Holaday 2021 · MLB	33	47	44→45	43→40	50	232/301/350	118	268	12	6	18%	8%	84	+0.6	230/290/403	173	279	21	8	25%	7%	93	+1.3	199/253/410	211	225	28	4	27%	5%	82	+0.1
✕Michel Hernandez 2012 · MLB	33	51	39→40	46→40	51	240/303/325	85	273	6	6	14%	7%	77	+0.1	217/273/316	99	255	8	7	18%	6%	63	-0.9	170/217/245	75	198	4	3	16%	4%	16	-1.2
✕Ken Huckaby 2005 · MLB	34	46	42→30	48→40	47	222/274/323	100	261	9	6	19%	6%	64	-0.8	213/248/284	71	280	6	6	25%	4%	43	-2.2	211/235/250	39	286	3	3	26%	3%	24	-1.4
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2019 · AAA	35	46	39→40	49→55	42	221/276/304	83	305	7	11	29%	6%	60	-1.0	209/256/348	139	330	17	10	40%	6%	64	-0.8	135/173/276	142	208	24	5	49%	4%	8	-0.8
✕Keith Osik 2003 · MLB	34	44	45→40	50	51	217/291/337	120	248	13	7	18%	8%	76	+0.1	226/302/322	96	271	8	5	18%	9%	77	+0.1	249/342/324	75	297	4	0	16%	11%	92	+0.6
✕Carlos Maldonado 2012 · AAA	33	42→50	40	46→40	45	206/270/298	93	273	8	6	27%	8%	57	-1.2	201/268/320	119	283	13	6	32%	8%	63	-0.9	177/261/314	138	221	19	0	29%	10%	55	-0.4
✕Ed Rogers 2013 · AAA	34	45→49	41→40	49→50	42	218/267/317	99	268	8	11	22%	5%	60	-1.0	242/294/352	110	293	13	12	21%	5%	81	+0.4	266/316/341	75	314	12	12	19%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Trinidad Robles 2008 · AAA	35	49	44→40	46→45	46	240/294/359	119	286	12	10	20%	6%	82	+0.5	216/271/300	84	268	7	7	21%	6%	57	-1.2	220/277/248	28	287	0	0	21%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Juan Graterol 2022 · MLB	33	47	39→40	46→30	44	226/273/304	79	254	7	5	15%	4%	59	-1.1	227/274/330	103	256	10	10	15%	4%	66	-0.6	217/256/301	84	234	7	10	10%	2%	48	-0.5
✕Drew Butera 2019 · MLB	35	43	44→40	47→40	48	216/281/334	118	263	12	4	23%	8%	71	-0.3	200/272/313	113	269	11	6	28%	8%	62	-0.9	177/255/284	108	247	11	5	31%	8%	47	-0.9