Ryan Goins

Pos2B

B/TL/R

Born1988-02-13

Age (2027)39

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	31	AAACWS	316	.322/.409/.531	10	3	97	—	.257/.316/.413
2019	31	MLBCWS	163	.250/.333/.347	2	0	92	0.2
2021	33	AAAATL	336	.233/.307/.330	6	3	32	—	.186/.235/.253
2022	34	AAAATL	317	.217/.247/.257	0	0	10	—	.181/.202/.214
2023	35	No MLB games played
2024	36	No MLB games played
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2020

Avg EV28

Speed22

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	21	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	89	81	16	4	0	0	7	23	0	1	2	198	261	247	508	49	271	26	8	235	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	182	166	34	9	0	0	11	33	0	1	1	205	254	259	513	54	252	18	6	230	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	338	295	91	19	2	3	35	60	1	6	7	308	384	417	801	108	374	18	10	354	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	398	353	101	24	5	3	32	67	0	2	2	286	345	408	753	122	343	17	8	326	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	617	545	159	32	4	8	47	76	0	15	9	292	348	409	757	117	323	12	8	326	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	52	45	6	1	0	0	4	9	0	0	1	133	204	156	360	22	162	17	8	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	121	119	30	5	0	2	2	28	0	0	0	252	264	345	609	92	315	23	2	271	69	-4	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.4
2013	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	418	377	97	22	1	6	29	85	1	3	5	257	312	369	681	111	316	20	7	299	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	193	181	34	6	3	1	5	42	0	0	1	188	210	271	480	83	237	22	3	206	25	-17	-0	+5	+2	+4	-0.6
2014	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	402	363	103	21	2	0	28	64	2	4	4	284	338	353	691	69	342	16	7	307	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	428	376	94	16	4	5	39	83	1	2	1	250	322	354	676	104	304	19	9	299	87	-6	+0	+4	+2	+9	0.9
2015	27	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	21	20	7	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	350	350	400	750	50	438	24	0	320	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	196	183	34	9	2	3	9	48	1	1	1	186	228	306	534	120	235	24	5	235	45	-13	-0	+3	+1	+4	-0.5
2016	28	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	110	98	26	6	0	2	8	23	0	0	1	265	321	388	709	122	324	21	7	307	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	418	99	21	1	9	31	96	0	3	2	237	290	356	646	120	283	21	7	284	78	-12	-0	+3	+5	+10	0.5
2018	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	120	115	26	8	1	0	4	29	0	0	0	226	252	313	565	87	302	24	3	251	56	-6	+0	+3	+1	+3	0.1
2018	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	143	127	28	6	0	2	13	32	0	4	1	220	293	315	608	94	277	22	9	273	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	163	144	36	6	1	2	17	44	1	0	1	250	333	347	681	97	347	27	10	310	92	-1	-0	-2	+2	+4	0.2
2019	31	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	316	273	88	23	2	10	39	77	1	3	3	322	409	531	940	209	415	24	12	410	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	336	300	70	9	1	6	32	100	0	3	1	233	307	330	637	97	327	30	10	288	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	317	300	65	12	0	0	12	69	0	0	1	217	247	257	503	40	278	22	4	226	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1680	1536	353	71	12	22	107	370	3	6	6	230	281	335	616	105	287	22	6	272	70	-59	-1	+20	+14	+36	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	89	83	13	3	0	0	5	31	0	1	2	157	205	193	397	36	249	35	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	182	168	31	8	0	0	9	47	0	1	1	185	226	232	458	48	242	26	5	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	338	307	78	14	2	3	23	81	1	6	7	254	308	342	650	88	322	24	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	398	361	92	23	4	3	24	96	0	2	2	255	301	366	667	111	321	24	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	617	559	169	31	5	7	33	89	0	15	9	302	341	413	754	111	327	14	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	121	119	30	5	0	2	2	28	0	0	0	252	264	345	609	92	315	23	2	270	69	-4	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.4
2013	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	418	386	95	18	1	6	20	103	1	3	5	246	285	345	630	98	309	25	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	193	181	34	6	3	1	5	42	0	0	1	188	210	271	480	83	237	22	3	205	25	-17	-0	+5	+2	+4	-0.6
2014	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	402	372	100	18	2	0	19	82	2	4	4	269	308	328	636	59	333	20	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	428	376	94	16	4	5	39	83	1	2	1	250	322	354	676	104	304	19	9	297	87	-6	+0	+4	+2	+9	0.9
2015	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	21	20	7	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	350	350	400	750	50	412	29	0	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	196	183	34	9	2	3	9	48	1	1	1	186	228	306	534	120	235	24	5	235	45	-13	-0	+3	+1	+4	-0.5
2016	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	110	101	23	5	0	1	5	29	0	0	1	228	264	307	571	79	294	26	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	418	99	21	1	9	31	96	0	3	2	237	290	356	646	120	283	21	7	284	78	-12	-0	+3	+5	+10	0.5
2018	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	120	115	26	8	1	0	4	29	0	0	0	226	252	313	565	87	302	24	3	251	56	-6	+0	+3	+1	+3	0.1
2018	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	143	131	25	5	0	2	9	40	0	4	1	191	243	275	518	84	251	28	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	163	145	36	6	1	2	16	44	1	0	1	248	327	345	672	97	347	27	10	305	92	-1	-0	-2	+2	+4	0.2
2019	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	316	288	74	20	2	7	24	96	1	3	3	257	316	413	729	156	349	30	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	336	312	58	7	1	4	20	123	0	3	1	186	235	253	488	67	283	37	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	317	304	55	10	0	0	8	83	0	0	1	181	202	214	416	33	240	26	3	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	89	83	13	3	0	0	5	31	0	1	2	157	205	193	397	36	245	35	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	89	81	16	4	0	0	7	23	0	1	2	198	261	247	508	49	271	26	8	235	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	520	475	109	22	2	3	32	128	1	7	8	229	280	303	583	74	304	25	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	520	461	125	28	2	3	46	93	1	7	8	271	339	360	699	89	330	18	9	311	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	398	361	92	23	4	3	24	96	0	2	2	255	301	366	667	111	336	24	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	398	353	101	24	5	3	32	67	0	2	2	286	345	408	753	122	343	17	8	326	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	669	605	182	34	5	7	36	97	0	15	10	301	340	408	748	107	344	14	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	669	590	165	33	4	8	51	85	0	15	10	280	337	390	727	110	312	13	8	313	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	539	505	125	23	1	8	22	131	1	3	5	248	280	345	625	97	318	24	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	539	496	127	27	1	8	31	113	1	3	5	256	301	363	664	107	316	21	6	292	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	595	553	135	25	5	1	24	124	2	4	5	244	278	313	591	69	311	21	4	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	595	544	137	27	5	1	33	106	2	4	5	252	297	325	622	74	309	18	6	275	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	449	396	100	17	4	5	39	89	1	2	1	253	321	354	675	101	308	20	9	298	88	-7	+0	+4	+2	+10	0.9
2015	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	449	396	101	17	4	5	39	88	1	2	1	255	323	356	679	101	311	20	9	300	88	-7	+0	+4	+2	+10	0.9
2016	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	306	284	56	14	2	4	14	77	1	1	2	197	237	303	540	106	255	25	5	242	50	-18	-1	+3	+1	+7	-0.8
2016	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	306	281	60	15	2	5	17	71	1	1	2	214	261	335	595	121	267	23	6	261	50	-18	-1	+3	+1	+7	-0.8
2017	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	418	99	21	1	9	31	96	0	3	2	237	290	356	646	120	283	21	7	284	78	-12	-0	+3	+5	+10	0.5
2017	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	418	99	21	1	9	31	96	0	3	2	237	290	356	646	120	283	21	7	284	78	-12	-0	+3	+5	+10	0.5
2018	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	263	246	52	13	1	2	13	69	0	4	1	211	251	297	548	85	284	26	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	263	242	54	14	1	2	17	61	0	4	1	223	274	314	588	91	289	23	6	263	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	433	110	26	3	9	40	140	2	3	4	254	320	390	710	136	353	29	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	479	417	124	29	3	12	56	121	2	3	4	297	383	468	851	170	392	25	12	376	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	336	312	58	7	1	4	20	123	0	3	1	186	235	253	488	67	289	37	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	336	300	70	9	1	6	32	100	0	3	1	233	307	330	637	97	327	30	10	288	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	317	304	55	10	0	0	8	83	0	0	1	181	202	214	416	33	246	26	3	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	317	300	65	12	0	0	12	69	0	0	1	217	247	257	503	40	278	22	4	226	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	89	84	13	3	0	0	5	31	0	1	2	155	205	190	395	36	249	35	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	520	482	109	22	2	3	32	128	1	7	8	226	280	299	578	73	294	25	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	398	371	92	23	4	3	24	96	0	2	2	248	301	356	657	108	321	24	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	669	628	182	34	5	7	36	97	0	15	10	290	340	393	733	104	327	14	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	539	511	125	23	1	8	22	131	1	3	5	245	280	341	621	96	310	24	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	595	564	135	25	5	1	24	124	2	4	5	239	278	307	585	67	302	21	4	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	449	406	100	17	4	5	39	89	1	2	1	246	321	345	666	99	309	20	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	306	288	56	14	2	4	14	77	1	1	2	194	237	299	536	104	256	25	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	425	99	21	1	9	31	96	0	3	2	233	290	351	640	118	283	21	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	263	248	52	13	1	2	13	69	0	4	1	210	251	294	545	85	274	26	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	434	110	26	3	9	40	140	2	3	4	253	320	389	709	136	348	29	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	336	313	58	7	1	4	20	123	0	3	1	185	235	252	487	67	283	37	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	317	306	55	10	0	0	8	83	0	0	1	180	202	212	414	33	240	26	3	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1680	1536	353	71	12	22	107	370	3	6	6	230	281	335	616	105	287	22	6	272	67	-59	-1	+20	+14	+36	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	137	27	5	9	41	143	1	2	2	231	281	338	619	108	287	22	6	272	67	-23	-0	+8	+6	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5419	4975	1186	238	29	55	308	1284	8	48	44	238	284	331	615	93	308	24	6	268	67	-59	-1	+20	+14	+36	1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	143	29	3	7	37	154	1	6	5	240	285	333	618	94	308	24	6	268	67	-23	-0	+8	+6	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 317 PAwOBA .222 → .183 (−40)K% 21.8% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.77%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	26.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.79%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×0.940	2.46%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.94%	÷1.018	×0.930	×1.016	×0.940	20.02%
Doubles /BIP	5.19%	÷0.966	×0.830	×1.016	×0.940	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.016	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .222 → .183; ISO .040 → .032; BABIP .278 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 336 PAwOBA .283 → .216 (−66)K% 29.8% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.76%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	36.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.52%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.942	6.11%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.00%	÷1.011	×0.930	×1.032	×0.942	24.14%
Doubles /BIP	4.50%	÷1.039	×0.830	×1.032	×0.942	3.50%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.032	×0.942	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	3.00%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.942	1.98%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .283 → .216; ISO .097 → .065; BABIP .327 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 316 PAwOBA .402 → .311 (−90)K% 24.4% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.37%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	30.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.34%	÷1.077	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.61%
HBP% /PA	0.32%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.29%
Singles /BIP	27.04%	÷1.061	×0.930	×1.002	×0.962	22.84%
Doubles /BIP	11.73%	÷0.921	×0.830	×1.002	×0.962	10.19%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.002	×0.962	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	5.10%	÷1.212	×0.840	—	×0.962	3.40%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .402 → .311; ISO .209 → .161; BABIP .415 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 143 PAwOBA .265 → .226 (−39)K% 22.4% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.38%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	27.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.39%	÷0.932	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.04%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.024	×0.972	19.49%
Doubles /BIP	6.32%	÷0.971	×0.830	×1.024	×0.972	5.37%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.024	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.11%	÷0.954	×0.840	—	×0.972	1.80%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .265 → .226; ISO .094 → .080; BABIP .277 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAABuffalo Bisons · 110 PAwOBA .301 → .256 (−46)K% 20.9% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.91%	÷0.937	×1.200	—	—	26.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.27%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.82%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷1.008	×0.930	×1.003	×0.992	22.04%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷0.917	×0.830	×1.003	×0.992	7.20%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.003	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.67%	÷1.164	×0.840	—	×0.992	1.91%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 87, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .301 → .256; ISO .122 → .099; BABIP .324 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAABuffalo Bisons · 21 PAwOBA .326 → .307 (−19)K% 23.8% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.81%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	28.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.040	×0.690	—	×1.003	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷0.981	×0.930	—	×1.003	38.03%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.944	×0.830	—	×1.003	5.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.966	×0.840	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .326 → .307; ISO .050 → .044; BABIP .438 → .412. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAABuffalo Bisons · 402 PAwOBA .301 → .277 (−24)K% 15.9% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.92%	÷0.942	×1.200	—	—	20.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.97%	÷1.041	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.70%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.48%
Singles /BIP	26.76%	÷0.968	×0.930	×1.024	×1.018	26.79%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷0.985	×0.830	×1.024	×1.018	6.17%
Triples /BIP	0.67%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.024	×1.018	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.006	×0.840	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 88, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .301 → .277; ISO .069 → .061; BABIP .342 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAABuffalo Bisons · 418 PAwOBA .292 → .272 (−21)K% 20.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.33%	÷0.987	×1.200	—	—	24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.94%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.87%
HBP% /PA	0.24%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.23%
Singles /BIP	23.29%	÷0.976	×0.930	×1.042	×1.033	23.89%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷1.094	×0.830	×1.042	×1.033	6.15%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.042	×1.033	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	2.05%	÷0.853	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.09%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 95, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .292 → .272; ISO .111 → .103; BABIP .316 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).