Abraham Toro

1B Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 30 S/R 6'0" / 223 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202427MLBOakland Athle…364.240/.293/.35064820.2
202528AAABOS216.272/.371/.4738375—.211/.282/.361
202528MLBBOS284.239/.294/.3717278-1.5
202629AAAKC502.270/.353/.47819274—.210/.275/.354
2027PROJ10% MLB30MLBKC41.231/.291/.3941096-0.0
2028PROJ31MLBKC390.226/.285/.38312191-0.6
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.3  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025
Speed60
xwOBA46
Bat Spd33
Barrel%23
Avg EV20
CompsJoe Borchard (age 30) · Luis Lopez (age 30) · Yermín Mercedes (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9696vR 96
AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .291 / .394
PA41
HR1
K%22
BB%7
BABIP269
ISO135
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -7.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-7POSREP: +8.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.1-0.62728
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025
CONTACT50
xAVG
500.252
POWER40
Barrel%
234.7
Avg EV
2086.8
Bat Spd
3369.6
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED55
Sprint
6027.9
Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 648 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
160
488
—
wRC+
89
78
◀L
wOBA
300
283
◀L
ISO
115
121
▶R
BABIP
297
259
◀L
K%
12.5%
17.2%
◀◀L
BB%
2.5%
5.7%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2019
Service   8.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.0$0.0M-$1M
Totals $1M $0.0M -$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201619 ROKGreeneville Astros — 193177 45630 10313 21 254305322627 68302 165 281 30 — — — — — —
201720 AQuad Cities River Bandits — 158134 28329 21302 20 209325463788 254198 1913 346 59 — — — — — —
201821 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 202178 411522 17466 33 230318371689 140298 238 311 53 — — — — — —
201821 A+Buies Creek Astros — 349296 7620114 45625 51 257364473837 216278 1813 368 86 — — — — — —
201821 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 8066 23612 12122 10 3484635611.023 212404 1515 450 191 — — — — — —
201922 MLBHouston Astros — 8978 17322 9191 11 218307385691 167259 2110 307 92 -1 -0 +3 +2 +2 0.6
201922 AAARound Rock Express — 7966 28901 1052 01 4245136061.119 182443 613 486 184 — — — — — —
201922 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 435376 11522416 48778 41 306396513909 207346 1811 399 103 — — — — — —
202023 MLBHouston Astros — 9787 13203 3237 11 149237276513 126164 243 240 49 -6 -0 -0 +0 +2 -0.4
202124 MLBSeattle Mariners — 375335 8012011 31547 63 239316373689 134254 148 311 99 -1 +0 -4 +2 +8 0.5
202124 AAASugar Land Skeeters — 6854 19512 1183 21 3524855931.078 241386 1216 471 160 — — — — — —
202225 MLBSeattle Mariners — 352324 6013110 22652 20 185241324565 139198 186 251 57 -18 +0 +1 +2 +8 -0.8
202225 AAATacoma Rainiers — 6958 14312 10120 30 241348431779 190273 1714 346 87 — — — — — —
202326 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 2118 8002 251 00 4445247781.302 333545 2410 558 258 +4 +0 -2 +2 +0 0.4
202326 AAANashville Sounds — 414357 1043628 49732 82 291380471850 179340 1812 373 99 — — — — — —
202427 MLBOakland Athletics — 364337 811716 20625 42 240293350643 110279 175 289 82 -8 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.2
202427 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 1716 3000 130 00 188235188423 231 186 201 4 — — — — — —
202528 MLBBoston Red Sox — 284259 621307 14426 21 239294371665 131256 155 294 78 -7 +0 -5 -9 +6 -1.5
202528 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 216184 50928 27562 30 272371473844 201341 2612 369 75 — — — — — —
202629 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 502441 11925519 481039 22 270353478832 209310 2110 365 74 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 15821438 32160441 10127029 168 223288356644 133246 176 288 81 -35 +0 -7 -0 +34 -0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201619 ROK MLEGreeneville Astros — 193181 35420 6443 21 193232238469 44248 233 212 30 — — — — — —
201720 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 158140 22226 15392 20 157248329577 171165 259 255 59 — — — — — —
201821 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 202184 341122 11566 33 185254299553 114255 285 246 53 — — — — — —
201821 A+ MLEBuies Creek Astros — 349312 6717113 29905 51 215292401693 186248 268 296 86 — — — — — —
201922 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 8978 17322 9191 11 218307385691 167259 2110 305 92 -1 -0 +3 +2 +2 0.6
201922 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 7969 27801 762 01 3914625511.012 159414 89 440 184 — — — — — —
201922 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 435392 10019412 32988 41 255324416740 161302 237 321 103 — — — — — —
202023 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 9787 13203 3237 11 149237276513 126164 243 240 49 -6 -0 -0 +0 +2 -0.4
202124 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 375335 8012011 31547 63 239316373689 134254 148 314 99 -1 +0 -4 +2 +8 0.5
202124 AAA MLESugar Land Skeeters — 6857 19512 8103 21 3334415611.003 228355 1512 405 160 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 352325 6013110 21652 20 185239323562 138198 186 252 57 -18 +0 +1 +2 +8 -0.8
202225 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 6962 13311 7140 30 210290339629 129272 2010 297 87 — — — — — —
202326 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 2118 8002 251 00 4445247781.302 333545 2410 550 258 +4 +0 -2 +2 +0 0.4
202326 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 414372 943026 34892 82 253319392711 140308 218 314 99 — — — — — —
202427 MLB MLEOakland Athletics — 364338 811617 19625 42 240290355645 115279 175 289 82 -8 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.2
202427 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 1716 3000 140 00 188235188423 219 246 174 4 — — — — — —
202528 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 284260 601207 13426 21 231283358641 127256 155 284 78 -7 +0 -5 -9 +6 -1.5
202528 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 216194 41726 17662 30 211282361643 149273 318 279 75 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 502457 9619413 321239 22 210275354630 144255 256 277 74 — — — — — —
201619 ROK MLEGreeneville Astros — 193181 35420 6443 21 193232238469 44250 233 212 30 — — — — — —
201619 ROK RAWGreeneville Astros — 193177 45630 10313 21 254305322627 68302 165 281 30 — — — — — —
201720 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 158140 22226 15392 20 157248329577 171167 259 255 59 — — — — — —
201720 A RAWQuad Cities River Bandits — 158134 28329 21302 20 209325463788 254198 1913 346 59 — — — — — —
201821 A+ MLE3 teams — 631568 11533316 4616713 94 202278356633 153254 267 278 74 — — — — — —
201821 A+ RAW3 teams — 631540 14041418 7412013 94 259362450812 191300 1912 360 74 — — — — — —
201922 AA MLE3 teams — 603539 14430615 4812411 53 267339429768 161319 218 334 112 — — — — — —
201922 AA RAW3 teams — 603520 16034619 6710111 53 308398506904 198348 1711 397 112 — — — — — —
202023 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 9787 13203 3237 11 149237276513 126164 243 240 49 -6 -0 -0 +0 +2 -0.4
202023 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 9787 13203 3237 11 149237276513 126164 243 240 49 -6 -0 -0 +0 +2 -0.4
202124 MLB MLE2 teams — 443392 9917113 396410 84 253336401736 148271 149 328 108 +4 +0 -4 +2 +10 1.2
202124 MLB RAW2 teams — 443389 9917113 426210 84 254342404746 149272 149 336 108 +4 +0 -4 +2 +10 1.2
202225 MLB MLE2 teams — 421387 7517212 28792 50 194252341593 147210 197 260 62 -19 +1 +1 +2 +9 -0.7
202225 MLB RAW2 teams — 421382 7416212 32772 50 194259340599 147209 188 267 62 -19 +1 +1 +2 +9 -0.7
202326 AAA MLE2 teams — 435390 1023028 36943 82 262329410739 149320 228 325 106 — — — — — —
202326 AAA RAW2 teams — 435375 11236210 51783 82 299387485872 187348 1812 382 106 — — — — — —
202427 MLB MLE2 teams — 381354 841617 20665 42 237288347635 110274 175 284 78 -10 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.0
202427 MLB RAW2 teams — 381353 841716 21655 42 238290343633 105277 176 285 78 -10 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.0
202528 MLB MLE2 teams — 500454 10119213 301088 51 222283359642 137258 226 282 77 -14 +1 -5 -9 +11 -1.6
202528 MLB RAW2 teams — 500443 11222215 41988 51 253327413740 160287 208 326 77 -14 +1 -5 -9 +11 -1.6
202629 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 502457 9619413 321239 22 210275354630 144255 256 277 74 — — — — — —
202629 AAA RAWOmaha Storm Chasers — 502441 11925519 481039 22 270353478832 209310 2110 365 74 — — — — — —
201619 ROK MLEGreeneville Astros — 193182 35420 6443 21 192232236468 44248 233 212 30 — — — — — —
201720 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 158140 22226 15392 20 157248329577 171165 259 255 59 — — — — — —
201821 A+ MLE3 teams — 631567 11533316 4616713 94 203278356634 153251 267 278 74 — — — — — —
201922 AA MLE3 teams — 603539 14430615 4812411 53 267339429768 161310 218 334 112 — — — — — —
202023 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 9787 13203 3237 11 149237276513 126164 243 240 49 — — — — — —
202124 MLB MLE2 teams — 443391 9917113 396410 84 253336402737 148269 149 328 108 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLE2 teams — 421388 7517212 28792 50 193252340592 147210 197 260 62 — — — — — —
202326 AAA MLE2 teams — 435393 1023028 36943 82 260329407736 148319 228 325 106 — — — — — —
202427 MLB MLE2 teams — 381353 841617 20665 42 238288348636 110276 175 284 78 — — — — — —
202528 MLB MLE2 teams — 500458 10119213 301088 51 221283356638 135263 226 282 77 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 502456 9619413 321239 22 211275355630 145255 256 277 74 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202427 MLB MLE2 teams — 381353 841617 20665 42 238288348636 110276 175 284 78 — — — — — —
202528 MLB MLE2 teams — 500458 10119213 301088 51 221283356638 135263 226 282 77 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 502456 9619413 321239 22 211275355630 145255 256 277 74 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202730 MLB MLEKC 10% 490449 10519317 311107 41 235295406701 171271 226 309 96 -3 +0 -0 -9 +11 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202730 MLB CTXKC 10% 4137 8201 391 00 231291394686 163269 227 303 96 -0 +0 -0 -1 +1 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202831 MLB MLEKC 100% 390357 8215213 24896 11 230289394683 165266 236 302 91 -4 -0 -3 -7 +8 -0.6
202831 MLB CTXKC 100% 390357 8115212 24896 11 226285383668 157264 236 296 91 -4 -0 -3 -7 +8 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19721795 40275653 12535935 179 224287361648 137250 186 290 84 -40 -0 -10 -7 +43 -1.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650592 13225217 4111812 63 223287358645 135249 186 290 84 -13 -0 -3 -2 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 51624680 105622030133 352111185 5622 226292371662 145265 227 292 84 -42 +0 -10 -15 +52 -1.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650589 13428417 4414011 73 228293375669 148268 227 292 84 -11 +0 -3 -4 +14 -0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 502 PAwOBA .358 → .277 (−81)K% 20.5% → 24.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.52%÷1.000×1.200——24.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.56%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9726.41%
HBP% /PA1.79%—×0.940—×0.9721.64%
Singles /BIP20.71%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×0.97217.79%
Doubles /BIP7.40%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×0.9725.67%
Triples /BIP1.48%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×0.9721.32%
Home runs /BIP5.62%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9723.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .358 → .277; ISO .209 → .152; BABIP .310 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 216 PAwOBA .365 → .279 (−86)K% 25.9% → 30.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.93%÷1.013×1.200——30.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷1.042×0.690—×0.9828.13%
HBP% /PA0.93%—×0.940—×0.9820.85%
Singles /BIP24.22%÷1.060×0.930×0.950×0.98219.81%
Doubles /BIP7.03%÷0.991×0.830×0.950×0.9825.50%
Triples /BIP1.56%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×0.9821.41%
Home runs /BIP6.25%÷0.984×0.700—×0.9824.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .365 → .279; ISO .201 → .152; BABIP .341 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 17 PAwOBA .196 → .174 (−22)K% 17.6% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.65%÷1.022×1.200——20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.88%÷0.952×0.690—×0.9924.23%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9920.00%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.974×0.930—×0.99221.86%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.088×0.830—×0.9920.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.001×0.700—×0.9920.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .196 → .174; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 414 PAwOBA .368 → .314 (−54)K% 17.6% → 21.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.63%÷0.978×1.200——21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.84%÷0.995×0.690—×1.0038.23%
HBP% /PA0.48%—×0.940—×1.0030.46%
Singles /BIP20.42%÷0.953×0.930×0.973×1.00319.45%
Doubles /BIP12.68%÷0.971×0.830×0.973×1.00310.57%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷0.900×0.970×0.973×1.0030.74%
Home runs /BIP2.82%÷0.905×0.700—×1.0032.19%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .368 → .314; ISO .179 → .150; BABIP .340 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 69 PAwOBA .337 → .297 (−40)K% 17.4% → 20.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.39%÷1.020×1.200——20.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.49%÷1.048×0.690—×1.0189.71%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷1.013×0.930×1.050×1.01817.06%
Doubles /BIP6.52%÷0.839×0.830×1.050×1.0186.90%
Triples /BIP2.17%÷0.902×0.970×1.050×1.0182.50%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷1.144×0.700—×1.0182.71%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .337 → .297; ISO .190 → .166; BABIP .273 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 68 PAwOBA .459 → .405 (−55)K% 11.8% → 14.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.76%÷1.002×1.200——14.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.18%÷0.975×0.690—×1.03311.82%
HBP% /PA4.41%—×0.940—×1.0334.28%
Singles /BIP23.91%÷1.023×0.930—×1.03322.46%
Doubles /BIP10.87%÷0.923×0.830—×1.03310.09%
Triples /BIP2.17%÷1.150×0.920—×1.0331.80%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷0.935×0.700—×1.0333.36%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .459 → .405; ISO .241 → .209; BABIP .386 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 435 PAwOBA .390 → .321 (−69)K% 17.7% → 22.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.70%÷0.958×1.220——22.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.57%÷1.043×0.700—×1.0277.29%
HBP% /PA1.84%—×0.870—×1.0271.64%
Singles /BIP24.41%÷1.011×0.920×0.950×1.02721.67%
Doubles /BIP7.36%÷0.949×0.840×0.950×1.0276.36%
Triples /BIP1.34%÷0.995×0.940×0.950×1.0271.23%
Home runs /BIP5.35%÷1.067×0.800—×1.0274.12%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 99, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .390 → .321; ISO .207 → .168; BABIP .346 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARound Rock Express · 79 PAwOBA .479 → .440 (−39)K% 6.3% → 8.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA6.33%÷1.022×1.290——7.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.66%÷1.030×0.710—×1.0509.16%
HBP% /PA2.53%—×0.980—×1.0502.61%
Singles /BIP29.51%÷0.966×0.900—×1.05028.88%
Doubles /BIP14.75%÷0.995×0.810—×1.05012.61%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.126×0.810—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP1.64%÷0.948×0.780—×1.0501.42%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .479 → .440; ISO .182 → .162; BABIP .443 → .414. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).