Armando Alvarez — OGILVIE

Armando Alvarez3B St. Paul Saints

Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 189 lbs AAA Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 203 proj PA

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .302 / .379

PA203

HR6

K%25

BB%8

ISO145

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024

CONTACT40

Whiff%

807.9%

xwOBA

330.289

POWER45

Avg EV

1080.8

Bat Spd

2268.4

EYE45

Chase%

3235.3%

SPEED45

Sprint

5527.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$0.6M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	218	210	48	7	0	5	4	30	0	0	2	229	243	333	576	105	240	14	2	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	218	208	57	12	0	5	6	23	0	0	2	274	294	404	698	130	283	11	3	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	2 teams	—	283	272	54	11	1	0	7	56	2	3	1	199	224	246	471	48	249	20	2	205	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	2 teams	—	283	268	65	13	1	0	11	37	2	3	1	243	278	299	576	56	280	13	4	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	2 teams	—	422	395	90	19	3	11	22	70	3	2	1	228	274	375	648	147	250	17	5	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	2 teams	—	422	386	99	25	3	13	30	54	3	2	1	256	314	438	752	181	268	13	7	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	2 teams	—	490	460	102	24	1	9	23	96	3	4	4	222	263	337	600	115	259	20	5	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	2 teams	—	490	448	121	31	1	11	35	74	3	4	4	270	327	417	745	147	300	15	7	330	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	403	371	80	25	0	6	27	85	0	2	1	216	269	332	600	116	260	21	7	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	403	360	85	25	0	10	37	70	0	2	1	236	307	389	695	153	263	17	9	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	323	307	68	16	0	15	12	85	0	4	2	221	251	420	671	199	251	26	4	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	323	299	83	20	0	18	20	71	0	4	2	278	323	525	848	247	304	22	6	365	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	2 teams	—	329	297	77	14	1	13	25	57	2	9	1	259	321	444	765	185	276	17	8	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	2 teams	—	329	288	90	18	1	18	34	51	2	9	1	312	389	569	958	257	321	16	10	411	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	2 teams	—	356	320	80	14	1	11	33	83	2	6	2	250	324	403	727	153	304	23	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	2 teams	—	356	310	95	21	1	15	43	69	2	6	2	306	394	526	920	219	352	19	12	404	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	2 teams	—	244	225	44	10	0	3	15	86	3	1	1	196	255	280	535	84	299	35	6	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	2 teams	—	244	220	51	12	0	7	20	61	3	1	1	232	305	382	686	150	288	25	8	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	MIN	—	203	183	44	8	1	6	16	51	2	3	1	240	308	393	702	153	294	25	8	306	92	-2	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	MIN	33%	173	156	36	7	0	5	14	44	1	2	0	231	298	372	670	141	289	25	8	300	88	-2	+0	-5	+1	+5	-0.1
2028	34	MLB	MIN	28%	132	119	26	5	0	3	11	34	1	1	0	218	290	336	626	118	282	26	8	292	82	-3	+0	-5	+0	+4	-0.4
2027	33	MLB	MIN	33%	57	52	12	2	0	2	5	15	0	1	0	231	298	385	683	154	289	26	9	295	84	-1	+0	-2	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	34	MLB	MIN	28%	37	34	7	1	0	1	3	10	0	0	0	206	270	324	594	118	283	27	8	287	78	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	133	123	28	4	0	3	10	33	0	2	0	228	286	333	619	106	287	25	8	281	73	-4	+0	-5	+2	+4	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	138	20	0	15	49	161	0	10	0	230	288	338	625	108	289	25	8	281	73	-20	+2	-25	+8	+18	-1.7
Career	—			—	3576	3315	749	160	8	87	209	777	19	37	16	226	276	358	634	132	267	22	6	277	70	-121	+1	-13	+13	+101	-1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	136	29	1	16	38	141	3	7	3	226	275	357	631	131	266	22	6	277	70	-22	+0	-2	+2	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	218	208	57	12	0	5	6	23	0	0	2	274	294	404	698	130	283	11	3	304	91	-2	-1	—	—	+6	0.3
2017	23	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	154	149	34	5	1	0	3	18	1	3	1	228	248	275	524	47	260	12	2	235	38	-11	+0	—	—	+4	-0.6
2017	23	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	129	119	31	8	0	0	8	19	1	0	0	261	312	328	640	67	307	15	6	290	80	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2018	24	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	390	359	94	25	3	11	25	48	3	2	1	262	314	440	755	178	275	12	6	331	112	+5	+0	—	—	+11	1.7
2018	24	A+	Tampa Tarpons	—	32	27	5	0	0	2	5	6	0	0	0	185	312	407	720	222	158	19	16	324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	260	238	66	18	0	6	18	39	1	1	2	277	331	429	759	151	306	15	7	334	114	+4	-1	—	—	+7	1.1
2019	25	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	230	210	55	13	1	5	17	35	2	3	2	262	323	405	728	143	292	15	7	324	106	+2	-0	—	—	+7	0.8
2021	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	403	360	85	25	0	10	37	70	0	2	1	236	307	389	695	153	263	17	9	308	94	-3	+0	—	—	+11	0.9
2022	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	323	299	83	20	0	18	20	71	0	4	2	278	323	525	848	247	304	22	6	365	137	+14	+0	—	—	+9	2.3
2023	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	298	260	80	15	1	18	32	47	1	8	1	308	386	581	966	273	310	16	11	413	174	+25	+1	—	—	+8	3.5
2023	29	ROK	ACL Giants Orange	—	31	28	10	3	0	0	2	4	1	1	0	357	419	464	884	107	417	13	6	397	162	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	30	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	39	37	9	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	243	282	270	552	27	310	21	5	254	53	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.2
2024	30	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	317	273	86	20	1	15	41	61	2	5	2	315	408	560	969	245	359	19	13	422	181	+29	+0	—	—	+9	3.9
2025	31	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	153	137	31	7	0	4	14	44	2	0	0	226	307	365	672	139	303	29	9	305	92	-1	+0	—	—	+4	0.3
2025	31	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	91	83	20	5	0	3	6	17	1	1	1	241	300	410	710	169	266	19	7	313	97	-0	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	39	37	9	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	243	282	270	552	27	310	21	5	254	53	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Armando Alvarez (OGILVIE)	32	40	45	45	45	235/302/379	144	294	6	3	25%	8%	92	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael McKenry 2017 · MLB	32	43→47	47→55	44→40	53	212/308/356	143	280	14	7	28%	11%	89	+0.9	202/288/319	117	283	11	6	30%	10%	71	-0.3	165/262/251	86	237	7	0	31%	11%	42	-1.0
✕Anthony Recker 2017 · MLB	33	42→48	48→55	48→45	48	212/293/354	143	279	16	5	29%	9%	82	+0.5	207/271/347	140	282	15	5	31%	7%	70	-0.3	185/243/323	138	252	16	1	33%	5%	50	-0.8
✕Nick Hundley 2016 · MLB	32	50→46	47→55	42→40	44	249/293/385	136	299	15	6	22%	6%	89	+0.9	244/292/401	157	299	17	4	23%	6%	93	+1.3	241/291/409	168	298	18	1	25%	6%	89	+0.5
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	49	226/296/394	168	267	19	5	23%	8%	93	+1.3	214/280/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	79	+0.3	160/214/281	121	200	11	4	26%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	47→50	48→50	49→40	43	235/287/379	143	302	15	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	209/262/341	132	278	15	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	167/220/276	109	222	15	2	32%	6%	30	-1.3
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	41→51	48→50	42→45	49	209/270/346	137	236	16	2	20%	7%	69	-0.4	234/289/360	126	284	14	2	22%	7%	81	+0.4	242/293/380	138	290	16	0	22%	6%	85	+0.3
✕Cody Ransom 2008 · MLB	32	38→42	52→55	49→50	43	204/267/364	160	262	20	13	30%	7%	73	-0.1	217/280/392	175	273	21	10	28%	7%	86	+0.8	216/283/399	183	290	24	7	33%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	41→37	48→50	45	46	208/290/355	147	272	16	5	29%	8%	81	+0.4	196/274/370	174	253	22	6	31%	7%	79	+0.3	152/237/329	176	180	24	1	32%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→48	47→50	49→45	46	249/307/386	138	316	15	5	26%	7%	95	+1.4	225/282/357	132	285	15	11	26%	7%	77	+0.1	192/248/303	111	240	13	13	25%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	46→45	48→30	46	222/280/346	124	262	15	6	22%	6%	74	-0.1	240/303/354	114	301	12	5	23%	7%	85	+0.7	240/304/338	98	308	10	2	24%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Brandon Larson 2006 · MLB	30	45→42	50	46→45	44	229/296/383	154	293	18	6	28%	7%	91	+1.1	226/275/382	156	289	20	6	28%	6%	81	+0.4	216/261/366	150	271	21	5	29%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Austin Romine 2021 · MLB	32	50→53	48→45	45	40	252/290/390	138	319	16	5	26%	5%	89	+1.0	221/261/337	116	302	13	5	30%	5%	63	-0.9	174/208/255	81	235	11	0	31%	4%	16	-1.3
✕Mario Lisson 2016 · AAA	32	47→49	49→55	48→55	43	239/296/379	140	296	18	9	25%	6%	89	+1.0	219/287/358	139	293	16	8	29%	8%	80	+0.4	201/279/343	142	269	17	6	31%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Taylor Motter 2022 · MLB	32	44→50	52→55	47→55	51	228/308/399	171	279	20	4	26%	10%	99	+1.7	221/290/397	176	278	22	8	28%	9%	92	+1.2	202/272/375	174	250	23	8	29%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Adam Rosales 2015 · MLB	32	46→49	45→55	47→45	45	229/287/348	120	281	13	8	23%	6%	77	+0.1	231/295/388	157	303	18	10	29%	7%	91	+1.1	223/287/396	173	301	21	8	32%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Gerald Laird 2012 · MLB	32	46→47	43→50	47→50	50	223/290/335	113	257	9	7	18%	8%	75	-0.0	251/318/356	105	292	8	5	16%	8%	92	+1.2	256/326/335	80	302	4	1	15%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→55	47→50	49→40	50	251/319/388	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	102	+1.8	223/297/340	117	295	11	8	26%	9%	79	+0.3	167/245/198	31	246	0	0	29%	9%	4	-0.9
✕Edwin Diaz 2007 · AAA	32	45	49→50	44→40	42	229/277/374	144	268	17	9	22%	5%	80	+0.4	248/283/384	136	281	15	8	17%	3%	85	+0.7	271/296/404	133	299	14	2	14%	2%	91	+0.5
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	45	47→50	47→50	44	226/284/365	139	286	14	4	26%	6%	80	+0.4	218/259/318	100	285	9	4	26%	4%	56	-1.3	205/237/302	97	277	10	0	29%	3%	39	-1.1
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2014 · AAA	32	46	51→50	48→40	43	237/290/389	152	284	19	8	24%	6%	89	+1.0	223/271/327	104	304	10	5	29%	5%	64	-0.8	200/248/285	84	289	8	1	32%	5%	40	-0.7