Armando Alvarez — OGILVIE

Armando Alvarez3B St. Paul Saints

Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 189 lbs AAA Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%6

BABIP294

ISO235

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024

CONTACT40

Whiff%

807.9%

xAVG

670.265

POWER45

Avg EV

1080.8

Bat Spd

2268.4

EYE45

Chase%

3235.3%

SPEED45

Sprint

5527.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.0M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$0.6M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	218	208	57	12	0	5	6	23	0	0	2	274	294	404	698	130	283	11	3	304	92	-2	-1	—	—	+5	0.2
2017	23	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	154	149	34	5	1	0	3	18	1	3	1	228	248	275	524	47	260	12	2	235	45	-10	+0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2017	23	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	129	119	31	8	0	0	8	19	1	0	0	261	312	328	640	67	307	15	6	290	82	-3	+0	—	—	+3	0.0
2018	24	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	390	359	94	25	3	11	25	48	3	2	1	262	314	440	755	178	275	12	6	331	110	+5	+0	—	—	+8	1.4
2018	24	A+	Tampa Tarpons	—	32	27	5	0	0	2	5	6	0	0	0	185	312	407	720	222	158	19	16	324	105	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	260	238	66	18	0	6	18	39	1	1	2	277	331	429	759	151	306	15	7	334	112	+4	-1	—	—	+6	0.9
2019	25	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	230	210	55	13	1	5	17	35	2	3	2	262	323	405	728	143	292	15	7	324	106	+2	-0	—	—	+5	0.6
2021	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	403	360	85	25	0	10	37	70	0	2	1	236	307	389	695	153	263	17	9	308	94	-3	+0	—	—	+9	0.6
2022	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	323	299	83	20	0	18	20	71	0	4	2	278	323	525	848	247	304	22	6	365	133	+13	+0	—	—	+7	2.0
2023	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	298	260	80	15	1	18	32	47	1	8	1	308	386	581	966	273	310	16	11	413	166	+23	+1	—	—	+6	3.2
2023	29	ROK	ACL Giants Orange	—	31	28	10	3	0	0	2	4	1	1	0	357	419	464	884	107	417	13	6	397	155	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	30	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	39	37	9	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	243	282	270	552	27	310	21	5	254	58	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.2
2024	30	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	317	273	86	20	1	15	41	61	2	5	2	315	408	560	969	245	359	19	13	422	172	+27	+0	—	—	+7	3.5
2025	31	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	153	137	31	7	0	4	14	44	2	0	0	226	307	365	672	139	303	29	9	305	92	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2025	31	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	91	83	20	5	0	3	6	17	1	1	1	241	300	410	710	169	266	19	7	313	98	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	39	37	9	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	243	282	270	552	27	310	21	5	254	58	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	218	210	49	8	0	5	4	30	0	0	2	233	248	343	591	110	242	14	2	252	57	-11	-1	—	—	+5	-0.7
2017	23	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	154	150	29	5	1	0	2	27	1	3	1	193	209	240	449	47	231	18	1	192	16	-15	+0	—	—	+3	-1.2
2017	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	129	122	27	6	0	0	5	27	1	0	0	221	258	270	528	49	274	21	4	233	44	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.6
2018	24	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	390	367	83	20	3	8	18	58	3	2	1	226	268	362	630	136	246	15	5	273	71	-14	+0	—	—	+8	-0.5
2018	24	A+ MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	32	28	4	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	143	250	250	500	107	141	25	12	237	47	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2019	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	260	244	55	14	0	4	12	47	1	1	2	225	265	332	597	107	255	18	5	259	61	-12	-1	—	—	+6	-0.7
2019	25	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	230	215	47	10	1	4	12	45	2	3	2	219	266	330	597	112	256	20	5	260	62	-10	-0	—	—	+5	-0.6
2021	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	403	372	76	23	0	6	26	85	0	2	1	204	256	315	571	110	240	21	6	252	57	-21	+0	—	—	+9	-1.2
2022	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	323	306	66	16	0	12	13	85	0	4	2	216	248	386	633	170	250	26	4	274	72	-11	+0	—	—	+7	-0.4
2023	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	298	269	69	12	1	14	23	56	1	8	1	257	317	465	782	208	263	19	8	333	112	+4	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
2023	29	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	31	29	8	2	0	0	1	6	1	1	0	276	323	345	667	69	320	19	3	280	76	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	39	37	9	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	243	282	270	552	27	310	21	5	253	57	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.2
2024	30	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	317	284	71	14	1	11	30	77	2	5	2	250	326	423	748	173	302	24	9	328	108	+3	+0	—	—	+7	1.0
2025	31	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	153	142	26	6	0	2	9	53	2	0	0	183	242	268	509	85	279	35	6	231	42	-10	+0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2016	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	218	210	49	8	0	5	4	30	0	0	2	233	248	343	591	110	246	14	2	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	218	208	57	12	0	5	6	23	0	0	2	274	294	404	698	130	283	11	3	304	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	283	272	56	11	1	0	7	54	2	3	1	206	231	254	485	48	256	19	2	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	283	268	65	13	1	0	11	37	2	3	1	243	278	299	576	56	280	13	4	260	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	422	395	88	20	3	10	22	67	3	2	1	223	269	365	634	142	244	16	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	422	386	99	25	3	13	30	54	3	2	1	256	314	438	752	181	268	13	7	331	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	490	460	102	24	1	8	23	91	3	4	4	222	263	330	594	109	258	19	5	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	490	448	121	31	1	11	35	74	3	4	4	270	327	417	745	147	300	15	7	330	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	403	372	76	23	0	6	26	85	0	2	1	204	256	315	571	110	245	21	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	403	360	85	25	0	10	37	70	0	2	1	236	307	389	695	153	263	17	9	308	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	323	306	66	16	0	12	13	85	0	4	2	216	248	386	633	170	254	26	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	323	299	83	20	0	18	20	71	0	4	2	278	323	525	848	247	304	22	6	365	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	298	77	14	1	14	24	61	2	9	1	258	318	453	771	195	276	19	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	329	288	90	18	1	18	34	51	2	9	1	312	389	569	958	257	321	16	10	411	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	356	321	80	15	1	11	32	85	2	6	2	249	321	405	726	156	305	24	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	356	310	95	21	1	15	43	69	2	6	2	306	394	526	920	219	352	19	12	404	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	244	225	41	9	0	3	15	85	3	1	1	182	243	262	505	80	275	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	244	220	51	12	0	7	20	61	3	1	1	232	305	382	686	150	288	25	8	308	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	218	212	49	8	0	5	4	30	0	0	2	231	248	340	587	108	242	14	2	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	283	272	56	11	1	0	7	54	2	3	1	206	231	254	485	48	251	19	2	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	422	394	88	20	3	10	22	67	3	2	1	223	269	365	635	142	238	16	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	490	461	102	24	1	8	23	91	3	4	4	221	263	330	593	108	255	19	5	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	403	374	76	23	0	6	26	85	0	2	1	203	256	313	569	110	240	21	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	323	307	66	16	0	12	13	85	0	4	2	215	248	384	632	169	250	26	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	300	77	14	1	14	24	61	2	9	1	257	318	450	768	193	268	19	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	356	319	80	15	1	11	32	85	2	6	2	251	321	408	729	157	303	24	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	244	224	41	9	0	3	15	85	3	1	1	183	243	263	506	80	279	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	300	77	14	1	14	24	61	2	9	1	257	318	450	768	193	268	19	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	356	319	80	15	1	11	32	85	2	6	2	251	321	408	729	157	303	24	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	244	224	41	9	0	3	15	85	3	1	1	183	243	263	506	80	279	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	32	MLB MLE	MIN	10%	18	17	5	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	294	333	529	863	235	294	28	6	306	93	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.4
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	32	MLB CTX	MIN	10%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						294	50	0	301	93	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIN	33%	173	156	36	7	0	5	14	44	1	2	0	231	298	372	670	141	289	25	8	300	89	-2	+0	-5	+1	+4	-0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIN	33%	57	53	12	2	0	2	4	15	0	1	0	226	281	377	658	151	289	26	7	294	89	-1	+0	-2	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	96	90	21	3	0	2	6	23	0	2	0	233	281	333	615	100	292	24	6	278	69	-3	+0	-4	+1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	609	142	20	0	14	41	156	0	14	0	233	282	335	617	102	292	24	6	278	69	-18	+3	-25	+10	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3259	3032	676	148	7	75	181	692	16	33	15	223	270	351	621	128	262	21	6	270	69	-4	+1	-7	+2	+5	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	605	135	30	1	15	36	138	3	7	3	223	270	350	621	127	262	21	6	270	69	-12	+2	-19	+6	+14	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Armando Alvarez (OGILVIE)	32	40	45	45	45	235/300/381	146	294	6	3	25%	8%	93	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	49	226/295/391	165	268	18	5	23%	8%	93	+0.8	214/281/365	151	263	16	7	25%	8%	82	-0.0	162/216/283	122	202	11	4	26%	7%	38	-0.9
✕Nick Hundley 2016 · MLB	32	52→46	48→55	42→40	44	259/303/401	141	312	15	6	22%	6%	97	+1.1	252/300/416	164	308	18	4	23%	6%	100	+1.3	246/295/418	173	303	19	1	25%	6%	95	+0.5
✕Anthony Recker 2017 · MLB	33	42→49	48→50	48→45	48	212/294/355	143	282	16	5	30%	10%	84	+0.2	210/277/351	141	288	15	5	31%	7%	77	-0.3	192/252/333	141	263	15	1	32%	6%	61	-0.7
✕Michael McKenry 2017 · MLB	32	45→48	48→55	44→40	54	224/322/377	152	294	15	7	27%	12%	99	+1.3	204/293/321	117	289	11	6	30%	10%	76	-0.4	164/260/244	80	241	6	0	31%	10%	46	-1.2
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	44→54	50	42→45	49	226/285/378	152	254	18	2	20%	7%	86	+0.3	244/297/375	131	296	14	2	22%	7%	90	+0.6	244/298/367	124	298	14	1	22%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	41→39	49→50	45	46	211/294/364	153	274	17	5	29%	8%	87	+0.4	196/275/365	169	254	21	6	31%	8%	80	-0.1	152/236/318	166	182	22	1	31%	7%	55	-0.6
✕Cody Ransom 2009 · MLB	33	39→42	53→55	48→50	44	210/275/381	171	263	21	11	29%	8%	84	+0.1	217/280/381	164	279	19	10	28%	8%	85	+0.2	213/295/416	202	288	25	6	34%	10%	97	+0.6
✕Adam Rosales 2015 · MLB	32	46→48	45→55	47→45	45	226/286/346	119	280	12	8	24%	7%	79	-0.2	229/294/382	153	302	17	10	29%	8%	91	+0.6	220/284/386	166	298	20	8	32%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Tim Beckham 2022 · MLB	32	45→55	54→55	45→50	41	235/283/414	179	298	22	6	29%	6%	94	+0.9	259/313/396	137	343	16	9	28%	6%	100	+1.3	315/366/420	105	431	14	6	28%	6%	119	+0.8
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→55	47→50	49→40	50	251/320/387	135	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	224/297/340	116	296	11	8	26%	9%	82	-0.0	167/245/198	31	246	0	0	29%	9%	15	-0.9
✕Miguel Ojeda 2007 · MLB	32	47→48	45	41→45	51	232/303/355	123	270	13	5	19%	8%	87	+0.4	242/307/367	125	284	12	7	19%	8%	91	+0.7	251/320/386	134	285	14	7	17%	8%	99	+0.6
✕Hector Luna 2012 · MLB	32	49	49→50	49→50	47	246/301/392	146	280	17	8	19%	7%	95	+0.9	239/286/370	131	282	14	8	20%	6%	84	+0.1	243/281/366	123	284	13	3	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Austin Romine 2021 · MLB	32	50→53	48→45	45	40	251/289/389	138	318	16	5	26%	5%	90	+0.6	222/262/337	115	303	13	5	30%	5%	68	-1.0	177/212/256	79	241	11	0	31%	4%	27	-1.3
✕Mario Lisson 2016 · AAA	32	47→49	46→50	48→55	43	236/294/360	124	294	15	9	25%	6%	85	+0.2	220/289/348	128	294	14	8	28%	8%	81	-0.1	204/284/336	131	274	14	6	29%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	47→50	46→50	49→40	43	235/286/369	134	303	14	5	27%	6%	84	+0.1	208/263/336	128	278	15	6	29%	7%	68	-1.0	166/218/273	107	222	15	2	32%	6%	35	-1.4
✕Curt Casali 2022 · MLB	33	46	51→50	49→30	53	231/327/398	166	299	19	5	28%	11%	107	+1.8	220/319/340	120	294	12	4	27%	11%	91	+0.6	210/316/296	86	281	8	0	25%	11%	79	-0.1
✕Brandon Larson 2007 · MLB	31	44→42	51→50	44→45	41	229/282/384	155	297	20	6	30%	6%	86	+0.3	225/271/371	146	281	18	8	26%	6%	79	-0.2	208/240/342	135	241	18	4	23%	4%	59	-0.6
✕James McCann 2022 · MLB	32	50→55	50	41→45	45	251/313/402	152	323	19	5	28%	8%	102	+1.5	226/283/359	133	289	16	7	26%	6%	81	-0.1	249/292/400	151	311	20	1	26%	5%	92	+0.3
✕Alex Gonzalez 2005 · MLB	32	45→50	51→55	41→45	47	231/288/396	165	267	18	5	21%	7%	91	+0.7	240/294/377	137	287	14	6	21%	7%	89	+0.5	265/321/404	138	314	14	3	19%	7%	102	+0.9
✕Russ Johnson 2006 · MLB	33	48→47	46→45	42→45	50	238/302/374	136	280	12	9	19%	8%	91	+0.7	232/299/356	124	256	12	6	14%	8%	86	+0.3	227/297/343	116	243	12	4	12%	9%	80	-0.1