Chad Wallach

C Las Vegas Aviators

Age 35 R/R 6'2" / 246 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	32	AAALAA	335	.247/.340/.430	12	2	53	—	.182/.256/.311
2025	33	AAALAA	259	.248/.322/.430	10	0	52	—	.194/.251/.325
2026	34	AAAOAK	146	.228/.319/.354	3	1	50	—	.189/.257/.280
2027PROJ10% MLB	35	MLBOAK	14	.226/.291/.371	0	0	82	0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBOAK	1	.216/.279/.347	0	0	72	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2025

Barrel%63

xwOBA44

Avg EV30

Speed10

CompsNick Hundley (age 35) · Anthony Recker (age 34) · Jonathan Aceves (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .291 / .371

PA14

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP287

ISO77

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.216

POWER55

Barrel%

6310.2

Avg EV

3087.6

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1024.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$1M
Totals		$1M		$0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	22	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	78	64	21	3	0	0	12	7	1	0	0	328	442	375	817	47	362	9	15	375	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	330	271	87	19	1	7	50	39	4	3	0	321	434	476	910	155	351	12	15	402	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	58	52	10	2	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	192	236	231	467	38	208	12	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	420	370	91	28	1	3	39	77	7	2	3	246	329	351	681	105	300	18	9	308	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	33	30	4	1	0	0	1	7	2	0	0	133	212	167	379	33	174	21	3	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	243	200	48	10	0	8	37	46	2	0	1	240	364	410	774	170	272	19	15	345	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	75	68	17	4	0	3	4	16	3	0	0	250	320	441	761	191	286	21	5	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	243	226	51	12	0	9	13	62	4	1	0	226	280	398	678	173	271	26	5	302	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	52	45	8	1	0	1	4	23	2	0	0	178	275	267	541	89	333	44	8	251	60	-2	+0	+4	+4	+1	0.7
2018	26	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	174	147	33	7	0	3	20	47	3	0	1	224	329	333	663	109	300	27	11	300	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	16	14	5	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	357	438	429	866	71	385	6	12	394	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	54	48	12	3	0	1	6	12	0	0	0	250	333	375	708	125	314	22	11	321	111	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.4
2020	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	48	44	10	3	0	1	3	12	0	0	0	227	277	364	640	136	290	25	6	280	84	-1	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.4
2021	29	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	66	60	12	2	1	0	3	32	1	0	0	200	250	267	517	67	400	48	5	230	46	-4	+0	+1	+7	+1	0.4
2021	29	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	305	254	54	9	0	15	44	81	6	0	0	213	342	425	767	213	245	27	14	344	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	40	35	5	1	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	143	231	257	488	114	160	22	10	222	36	-3	+0	-0	+7	+1	0.5
2022	30	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	365	319	70	16	1	9	36	95	5	3	0	219	308	361	669	141	277	26	10	300	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	172	157	31	5	1	7	13	57	0	0	1	197	259	376	635	178	258	33	8	279	75	-5	-0	+0	+4	+4	0.2
2023	31	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	43	36	13	1	0	2	6	7	0	1	0	361	452	556	1.008	194	393	16	14	434	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	335	291	72	15	1	12	35	96	6	2	2	247	340	430	770	182	323	29	10	342	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	259	230	57	10	1	10	22	65	3	0	1	248	322	430	752	183	299	25	8	330	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	146	127	29	5	1	3	13	35	4	1	0	228	319	354	674	126	286	24	9	304	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	432	389	78	15	2	11	33	145	3	0	1	201	268	334	602	134	285	34	8	268	68	-17	-0	+8	+24	+9	2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	22	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	78	68	21	3	0	0	8	10	1	0	0	309	390	353	743	44	351	13	10	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	330	289	84	17	1	5	32	53	4	3	0	291	369	408	778	118	330	16	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	420	378	78	25	1	2	31	111	7	2	3	206	279	294	572	87	278	26	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	243	215	45	9	0	7	22	54	2	0	1	209	289	349	638	140	236	22	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	243	230	41	9	0	7	9	76	4	1	0	178	222	309	531	130	230	31	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	52	45	8	1	0	1	4	23	2	0	0	178	275	267	541	89	333	44	8	257	60	-2	+0	+4	+4	+1	0.7
2018	26	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	174	153	28	6	0	2	14	57	3	0	1	183	265	261	526	78	261	33	8	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	16	15	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	267	312	333	646	67	289	6	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	54	48	12	3	0	1	6	12	0	0	0	250	333	375	708	125	314	22	11	332	111	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.4
2020	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	48	44	10	3	0	1	3	12	0	0	0	227	277	364	640	136	290	25	6	292	84	-1	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.4
2021	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	66	60	12	2	1	0	3	32	1	0	0	200	250	267	517	67	400	48	5	237	46	-4	+0	+1	+7	+1	0.4
2021	29	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	305	271	45	7	0	11	27	99	6	0	0	166	257	314	570	148	210	32	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	40	35	5	1	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	143	231	257	488	114	160	22	10	222	36	-3	+0	-0	+7	+1	0.5
2022	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	365	332	59	13	1	6	23	115	5	3	0	178	242	277	519	99	242	32	6	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	172	157	31	5	1	7	13	57	0	0	1	197	259	376	635	178	258	33	8	279	75	-5	-0	+0	+4	+4	0.2
2023	31	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	43	38	11	1	0	1	4	8	0	1	0	289	357	395	752	105	321	19	9	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	335	302	55	10	1	9	24	119	6	2	2	182	256	311	567	129	252	36	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	259	237	46	8	1	7	15	80	3	0	1	194	251	325	576	131	248	31	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	146	132	25	4	1	2	8	42	4	1	0	189	257	280	537	91	251	29	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	466	406	119	23	1	5	46	73	5	3	0	293	372	392	764	99	340	16	10	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	466	387	118	24	1	7	65	53	5	3	0	305	411	426	838	121	332	11	14	373	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	453	406	83	26	1	2	34	120	9	2	3	204	281	288	569	84	282	26	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	453	400	95	29	1	3	40	84	9	2	3	237	321	338	658	100	291	19	9	300	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	318	280	59	11	0	10	29	71	5	0	1	211	296	357	653	146	245	22	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	318	268	65	14	0	11	41	62	5	0	1	243	354	418	771	175	276	19	13	344	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	243	230	41	9	0	7	9	76	4	1	0	178	222	309	531	130	231	31	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	243	226	51	12	0	9	13	62	4	1	0	226	280	398	678	173	271	26	5	302	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	242	212	40	8	0	3	20	82	5	0	1	189	274	269	543	80	285	34	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	242	206	46	9	0	4	26	71	5	0	1	223	325	325	650	102	313	29	11	296	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	54	48	12	3	0	1	6	12	0	0	0	250	333	375	708	125	314	22	11	332	111	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.4
2019	27	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	54	48	12	3	0	1	6	12	0	0	0	250	333	375	708	125	314	22	11	321	111	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.4
2020	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	48	44	10	3	0	1	3	12	0	0	0	227	277	364	640	136	290	25	6	292	84	-1	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.4
2020	28	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	48	44	10	3	0	1	3	12	0	0	0	227	277	364	640	136	290	25	6	280	84	-1	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.4
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	331	58	10	1	11	30	131	7	0	0	175	258	311	569	136	245	35	8	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	371	314	66	11	1	15	47	113	7	0	0	210	326	395	721	185	270	30	13	324	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	405	367	64	14	1	7	27	124	5	3	0	174	241	275	516	101	237	31	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	405	354	75	17	1	10	40	104	5	3	0	212	301	350	651	138	265	26	10	292	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	215	195	42	6	1	8	17	65	0	1	1	215	278	379	658	164	276	30	8	292	84	-4	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2023	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	215	193	44	6	1	9	19	64	0	1	1	228	297	409	706	181	289	30	9	310	84	-4	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2024	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	335	302	55	10	1	9	24	119	6	2	2	182	256	311	567	129	260	36	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	335	291	72	15	1	12	35	96	6	2	2	247	340	430	770	182	323	29	10	342	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	259	237	46	8	1	7	15	80	3	0	1	194	251	325	576	131	257	31	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	259	230	57	10	1	10	22	65	3	0	1	248	322	430	752	183	299	25	8	330	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	146	132	25	4	1	2	8	42	4	1	0	189	257	280	537	91	256	29	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	—	146	127	29	5	1	3	13	35	4	1	0	228	319	354	674	126	286	24	9	304	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	466	412	119	23	1	5	46	73	5	3	0	289	372	386	758	97	334	16	10	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	453	407	83	26	1	2	34	120	9	2	3	204	281	287	568	84	278	26	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	318	281	59	11	0	10	29	71	5	0	1	210	296	356	652	146	236	22	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	243	228	41	9	0	7	9	76	4	1	0	180	222	311	534	132	230	31	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	242	215	40	8	0	3	20	82	5	0	1	186	274	265	539	79	278	34	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	54	48	12	3	0	1	6	12	0	0	0	250	333	375	708	125	314	22	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	48	45	10	3	0	1	3	12	0	0	0	222	277	356	632	133	290	25	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	331	58	10	1	11	30	131	7	0	0	175	258	311	569	136	244	35	8	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	405	370	64	14	1	7	27	124	5	3	0	173	241	273	514	100	234	31	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	215	196	42	6	1	8	17	65	0	1	1	214	278	378	656	163	271	30	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	335	302	55	10	1	9	24	119	6	2	2	182	256	311	567	129	252	36	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	259	239	46	8	1	7	15	80	3	0	1	192	251	322	573	130	248	31	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	146	133	25	4	1	2	8	42	4	1	0	188	257	278	535	90	251	29	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	335	302	55	10	1	9	24	119	6	2	2	182	256	311	567	129	252	36	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	259	239	46	8	1	7	15	80	3	0	1	192	251	322	573	130	248	31	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	146	133	25	4	1	2	8	42	4	1	0	188	257	278	535	90	251	29	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	OAK	10%	230	209	46	9	1	6	16	61	3	2	1	220	285	362	647	141	278	27	7	289	82	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	OAK	10%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	226	291	371	662	145	287	29	7	295	82	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	OAK	1%	83	76	16	3	0	2	6	23	1	0	0	211	274	339	613	128	270	28	7	275	72	-3	+0	-7	+1	+2	-0.6
2028	36	MLB CTX	OAK	1%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	216	279	347	626	131	279	0	0	281	72	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	433	390	78	15	2	11	33	145	3	0	1	200	268	333	601	133	284	33	8	268	67	-17	-0	+8	+24	+9	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	118	23	3	17	50	218	5	0	2	202	271	338	609	137	286	34	8	268	67	-25	-1	+12	+36	+14	3.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3781	3396	699	143	9	79	284	1068	56	14	10	206	278	323	601	117	272	28	8	267	67	-22	-1	+1	+28	+14	2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	121	25	2	14	49	184	10	2	2	207	280	329	609	122	274	28	8	267	67	-22	-1	+1	+28	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 146 PAwOBA .300 → .242 (−59)K% 24.0% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.97%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.90%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.78%
HBP% /PA	2.74%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	2.42%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.036	×0.940	19.70%
Doubles /BIP	5.43%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.036	×0.940	4.39%
Triples /BIP	1.09%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.036	×0.940	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	3.26%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	2.15%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .300 → .242; ISO .126 → .093; BABIP .286 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 259 PAwOBA .323 → .245 (−78)K% 25.1% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.10%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	30.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.49%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.72%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.02%
Singles /BIP	21.82%	÷1.046	×0.930	×1.027	×0.940	18.73%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.027	×0.940	4.83%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷1.079	×0.970	×1.027	×0.940	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	6.06%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.940	4.03%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .323 → .245; ISO .183 → .126; BABIP .299 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 335 PAwOBA .336 → .247 (−89)K% 28.7% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.66%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	35.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.45%	÷0.944	×0.690	—	×0.942	7.20%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.59%
Singles /BIP	22.56%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.985	×0.942	18.90%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.141	×0.830	×0.985	×0.942	5.19%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.985	×0.942	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	6.15%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×0.942	4.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .336 → .247; ISO .182 → .127; BABIP .323 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 43 PAwOBA .433 → .343 (−90)K% 16.3% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.28%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	19.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.95%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.952	9.12%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	34.48%	÷1.058	×0.930	—	×0.952	28.87%
Doubles /BIP	3.45%	÷0.967	×0.830	—	×0.952	2.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.952	4.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .433 → .343; ISO .194 → .142; BABIP .393 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 365 PAwOBA .296 → .233 (−63)K% 26.0% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.03%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	31.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.86%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.33%
HBP% /PA	1.37%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.24%
Singles /BIP	19.64%	÷0.993	×0.930	×1.001	×0.962	17.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.956	×0.830	×1.001	×0.962	5.97%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.001	×0.962	0.36%
Home runs /BIP	4.02%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .296 → .233; ISO .141 → .104; BABIP .277 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 305 PAwOBA .336 → .257 (−78)K% 26.6% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.56%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	32.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.10%	÷1.090	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.68%
HBP% /PA	1.97%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.80%
Singles /BIP	17.34%	÷1.032	×0.930	×1.021	×0.972	15.51%
Doubles /BIP	5.20%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.021	×0.972	4.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.021	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.67%	÷0.907	×0.700	—	×0.972	6.51%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .336 → .257; ISO .213 → .163; BABIP .245 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 174 PAwOBA .298 → .246 (−52)K% 27.0% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.01%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	33.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.49%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×1.003	8.26%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	1.69%
Singles /BIP	23.00%	÷1.054	×0.900	×1.008	×1.003	19.87%
Doubles /BIP	7.00%	÷0.906	×0.810	×1.008	×1.003	6.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.031	×0.810	×1.008	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.00%	÷0.952	×0.780	—	×1.003	2.46%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 81, 3B 106, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .298 → .246; ISO .109 → .093; BABIP .300 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Marlins · 16 PAwOBA .384 → .279 (−105)K% 6.2% → 9.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.25%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	9.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	7.29%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.77%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	23.72%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	5.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .384 → .279; ISO .071 → .050; BABIP .385 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	0.5	359	9	0	203	268	339	+6	+4	0.3	0.3
/162	664	17	0	+11.8	+7.4	0.6	pk7: 0
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chad Wallach (OGILVIE)	35	45	55	45	40	218/283/358	140	278	4	1	27%	7%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Hundley 2019 · MLB	35	48→45	52→55	46→40	42	245/290/418	172	303	20	4	26%	6%	97	+1.1	226/277/380	154	301	18	7	30%	6%	84	+0.1	161/196/283	123	228	14	0	36%	3%	31	-0.8
✕Anthony Recker 2018 · MLB	34	40→48	45→50	49→45	43	203/272/329	126	276	13	5	30%	7%	70	-0.8	209/270/358	149	284	17	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	182/243/344	162	237	21	0	32%	7%	60	-0.8
✕Jonathan Aceves 2013 · AAA	35	43	47→50	42→30	42	220/269/354	135	276	15	6	26%	6%	75	-0.5	211/264/333	122	256	14	4	23%	6%	68	-1.0	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Cody Ransom 2011 · MLB	35	40→39	51→55	48→50	43	212/270/375	162	264	19	8	28%	7%	80	-0.2	216/286/399	183	290	23	8	32%	8%	92	+0.7	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Adam Rosales 2018 · MLB	35	44→50	51→55	45	40	225/281/387	162	304	19	7	32%	6%	86	+0.3	198/248/332	134	258	16	5	29%	5%	61	-1.5	175/223/296	120	224	15	3	29%	5%	42	-1.8
✕Miguel Olivo 2013 · MLB	35	43→50	53→60	40→50	37	231/260/394	163	280	22	8	27%	4%	80	-0.1	234/272/390	156	303	19	8	29%	4%	84	+0.1	216/254/339	124	304	13	8	32%	4%	62	-0.7
✕John Buck 2014 · MLB	34	42→52	51→60	43→30	48	221/293/376	155	261	21	3	24%	8%	89	+0.5	232/296/358	126	288	15	5	24%	7%	85	+0.2	229/290/300	70	298	6	0	24%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Kelly Stinnett 2006 · MLB	36	47	50	46→40	44	240/301/390	150	294	19	4	25%	7%	95	+1.0	212/264/329	117	271	14	5	26%	6%	67	-1.1	177/219/253	76	229	9	0	27%	5%	31	-1.0
✕Sal Fasano 2008 · MLB	36	42	52→55	44→40	37	220/278/379	159	274	21	4	28%	4%	85	+0.2	203/259/316	113	281	12	6	31%	4%	62	-1.4	175/227/258	82	257	7	4	33%	3%	35	-1.1
✕Curt Casali 2024 · MLB	35	43	43→50	47→30	51	211/304/320	109	285	11	4	28%	10%	81	-0.1	233/322/344	111	290	10	6	22%	10%	93	+0.8	235/335/321	87	290	7	0	19%	11%	92	+0.3
✕Dioner Navarro 2019 · MLB	35	45→55	47→50	46→45	48	227/290/362	135	269	14	8	22%	8%	84	+0.1	222/297/340	118	273	12	8	22%	9%	82	-0.0	171/255/218	47	218	4	0	22%	9%	37	-0.6
✕Drew Butera 2019 · MLB	35	44	45→40	47→40	48	221/286/345	124	270	12	4	23%	8%	78	-0.3	199/268/313	114	265	11	6	28%	8%	65	-1.2	170/243/272	102	236	10	5	31%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	40→38	49→50	45	46	208/290/361	153	270	17	5	29%	8%	85	+0.2	192/269/357	165	248	20	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	145/226/306	160	173	21	1	31%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Bobby Wilson 2018 · MLB	35	39→49	46→50	44→40	42	205/255/327	122	252	16	3	26%	6%	63	-1.4	194/249/313	119	246	14	4	26%	7%	57	-1.8	158/214/253	96	199	11	0	27%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Carlos Pérez 2024 · MLB	33	38→48	53→55	46→45	46	209/273/378	169	228	23	2	21%	7%	82	+0.0	209/273/380	171	232	21	3	21%	7%	82	+0.0	196/260/370	174	213	22	1	21%	7%	73	-0.4
✕James McCann 2024 · MLB	34	44→54	46→50	47→45	42	222/278/352	130	283	14	7	27%	6%	77	-0.3	237/285/389	152	294	19	5	26%	5%	88	+0.5	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
✕Elias Díaz 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	48→50	44→45	47	242/296/382	140	286	16	2	21%	7%	91	+0.6	241/291/373	132	295	15	2	23%	6%	87	+0.4	232/281/361	129	284	15	0	23%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Chris Gimenez 2017 · MLB	34	43→53	45→50	47→45	45	217/276/335	119	272	14	5	26%	7%	73	-0.6	205/285/326	121	281	13	6	30%	9%	75	-0.5	181/273/291	110	254	12	3	31%	10%	63	-0.6
✕Humberto Quintero 2015 · MLB	35	47	44→45	41→40	38	233/263/350	118	284	11	5	22%	3%	70	-0.8	225/257/325	100	280	10	7	23%	3%	63	-1.4	220/242/296	76	267	11	3	22%	2%	47	-1.3
✕Doug Mirabelli 2007 · MLB	36	44	53→50	48→30	46	228/304/398	170	292	21	5	29%	8%	99	+1.2	228/300/390	162	298	20	7	29%	8%	95	+1.0	200/276/357	157	261	24	0	32%	9%	79	-0.0

Chad Wallach

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps