Marquez Smith
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 29 | AA/A+/INTL3 orgs | 835 | .290/.396/.549 | 40 | 4 | 106 | — | .230/.321/.416 |
| 2015 | 30 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 657 | .272/.389/.417 | 12 | 14 | 98 | — | .233/.304/.342 |
| 2016 | 31 | AAASaraperos de … | 95 | .262/.366/.412 | 2 | 2 | 61 | — | .200/.269/.282 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 22 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 72 | 64 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 375 | 484 | 859 | 188 | 302 | 11 | 10 | 382 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 146 | 131 | 31 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 315 | 397 | 712 | 160 | 283 | 20 | 8 | 320 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 360 | 315 | 93 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 35 | 65 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 295 | 375 | 508 | 883 | 213 | 329 | 18 | 10 | 383 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 450 | 410 | 115 | 34 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 82 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 280 | 340 | 441 | 782 | 161 | 328 | 18 | 7 | 345 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 55 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 260 | 327 | 580 | 907 | 320 | 250 | 24 | 9 | 391 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 342 | 303 | 95 | 26 | 1 | 17 | 31 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 314 | 386 | 574 | 961 | 261 | 358 | 20 | 9 | 415 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 50 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 280 | 432 | 712 | 250 | 179 | 26 | 10 | 315 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 113 | 97 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 354 | 454 | 808 | 206 | 260 | 17 | 14 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 292 | 259 | 72 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 61 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 348 | 444 | 792 | 166 | 333 | 21 | 8 | 347 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA | Piratas de Campeche | — | 53 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 358 | 413 | 772 | 152 | 324 | 21 | 13 | 348 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 314 | 280 | 82 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 52 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 293 | 355 | 464 | 819 | 171 | 330 | 17 | 7 | 356 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 80 | 70 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 304 | 414 | 718 | 200 | 218 | 16 | 11 | 316 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 217 | 183 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 301 | 407 | 514 | 921 | 213 | 331 | 16 | 12 | 406 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 34 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 206 | 312 | 518 | 156 | 211 | 35 | 6 | 231 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 520 | 424 | 137 | 32 | 4 | 29 | 83 | 93 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 323 | 443 | 623 | 1.065 | 300 | 352 | 18 | 16 | 455 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | INTL | Mexico | — | 281 | 245 | 61 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 46 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 249 | 333 | 453 | 786 | 204 | 264 | 16 | 10 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 482 | 408 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 63 | 97 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 267 | 373 | 402 | 775 | 135 | 328 | 20 | 13 | 348 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 175 | 136 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 29 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 287 | 433 | 463 | 896 | 176 | 330 | 17 | 16 | 395 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 95 | 80 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 263 | 366 | 412 | 778 | 150 | 333 | 24 | 12 | 345 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 72 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 306 | 364 | 669 | 121 | 272 | 15 | 7 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 146 | 136 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 247 | 316 | 563 | 125 | 259 | 28 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 360 | 327 | 81 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 89 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 248 | 307 | 416 | 723 | 168 | 294 | 25 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 450 | 421 | 107 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 100 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 254 | 298 | 392 | 689 | 138 | 311 | 22 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 55 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 255 | 462 | 716 | 250 | 224 | 33 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 342 | 314 | 83 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 20 | 89 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 264 | 319 | 481 | 799 | 217 | 317 | 26 | 6 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 50 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 220 | 326 | 546 | 174 | 153 | 32 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 292 | 266 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 81 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 289 | 361 | 650 | 128 | 303 | 28 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 53 | 49 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 283 | 347 | 630 | 122 | 287 | 25 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 314 | 288 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 66 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 296 | 378 | 675 | 128 | 291 | 21 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 80 | 73 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 253 | 342 | 596 | 151 | 196 | 19 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 217 | 194 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 315 | 392 | 707 | 155 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 34 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 176 | 303 | 480 | 152 | 184 | 41 | 3 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 520 | 451 | 106 | 25 | 3 | 18 | 56 | 129 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 330 | 424 | 754 | 188 | 280 | 25 | 11 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 482 | 433 | 101 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 121 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 233 | 304 | 342 | 646 | 109 | 298 | 25 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 95 | 85 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 200 | 269 | 282 | 551 | 82 | 269 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 72 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 306 | 364 | 669 | 121 | 264 | 15 | 7 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 72 | 64 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 375 | 484 | 859 | 188 | 302 | 11 | 10 | 382 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 462 | 107 | 23 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 130 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 232 | 291 | 383 | 675 | 152 | 291 | 26 | 6 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 506 | 446 | 124 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 47 | 94 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 278 | 357 | 475 | 833 | 197 | 316 | 19 | 9 | 365 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 473 | 118 | 33 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 118 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 249 | 293 | 400 | 692 | 150 | 307 | 23 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 505 | 460 | 128 | 35 | 1 | 15 | 38 | 95 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 278 | 339 | 457 | 795 | 178 | 321 | 19 | 8 | 350 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 505 | 466 | 115 | 30 | 1 | 22 | 30 | 136 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 301 | 457 | 758 | 210 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 505 | 444 | 127 | 33 | 1 | 25 | 52 | 102 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 286 | 369 | 534 | 902 | 248 | 320 | 20 | 10 | 393 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 292 | 266 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 81 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 289 | 361 | 650 | 128 | 306 | 28 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 292 | 259 | 72 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 61 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 348 | 444 | 792 | 166 | 333 | 21 | 8 | 347 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 337 | 82 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 79 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 292 | 362 | 654 | 119 | 297 | 22 | 5 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 367 | 326 | 94 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 63 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 288 | 356 | 457 | 813 | 169 | 329 | 17 | 8 | 354 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 267 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 62 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 302 | 393 | 695 | 165 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 297 | 253 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 277 | 380 | 486 | 866 | 209 | 299 | 16 | 12 | 382 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 835 | 727 | 165 | 40 | 5 | 27 | 86 | 217 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 227 | 319 | 407 | 726 | 180 | 280 | 26 | 10 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 835 | 701 | 203 | 52 | 5 | 40 | 112 | 151 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 290 | 396 | 549 | 946 | 260 | 314 | 18 | 13 | 408 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 657 | 584 | 137 | 29 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 165 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 235 | 310 | 342 | 653 | 108 | 308 | 25 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 657 | 544 | 148 | 33 | 5 | 12 | 91 | 126 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 272 | 389 | 417 | 806 | 145 | 329 | 19 | 14 | 361 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 95 | 85 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 200 | 269 | 282 | 551 | 82 | 281 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 95 | 80 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 263 | 366 | 412 | 778 | 150 | 333 | 24 | 12 | 345 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 72 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 306 | 364 | 669 | 121 | 272 | 15 | 7 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 462 | 107 | 23 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 130 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 232 | 291 | 383 | 675 | 152 | 284 | 26 | 6 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 471 | 118 | 33 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 118 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 251 | 293 | 401 | 694 | 151 | 302 | 23 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 505 | 464 | 115 | 30 | 1 | 22 | 30 | 136 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 248 | 301 | 459 | 760 | 211 | 296 | 27 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 292 | 269 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 81 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 230 | 289 | 357 | 646 | 126 | 303 | 28 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 341 | 82 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 79 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 292 | 358 | 649 | 117 | 290 | 22 | 5 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 267 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 62 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 302 | 393 | 695 | 165 | 256 | 21 | 7 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 835 | 730 | 165 | 40 | 5 | 27 | 86 | 217 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 226 | 319 | 405 | 724 | 179 | 274 | 26 | 10 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 657 | 588 | 137 | 29 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 165 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 233 | 310 | 340 | 650 | 107 | 298 | 25 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 95 | 87 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 195 | 269 | 276 | 545 | 80 | 269 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4131 | 3733 | 880 | 208 | 20 | 106 | 290 | 1028 | 62 | 31 | 21 | 236 | 302 | 387 | 689 | 152 | 294 | 25 | 7 | 300 | 89 | -53 | -2 | +0 | -74 | +90 | -4.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 139 | 33 | 3 | 17 | 46 | 162 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 237 | 303 | 390 | 693 | 153 | 295 | 25 | 7 | 300 | 89 | -8 | -0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 95 PAwOBA .340 → .259 (−81)K% 24.2% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.21% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 1.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.81% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×0.962 | 20.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.154 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×0.962 | 7.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷0.966 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 2.45% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 131, 3B 112, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .340 → .259; ISO .150 → .105; BABIP .333 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 482 PAwOBA .344 → .283 (−60)K% 20.1% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.12% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.07% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.948 | 7.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.948 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.948 | 21.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.40% | ÷0.979 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×0.948 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.29% | ÷0.903 | ×0.880 | ×1.018 | ×0.948 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.57% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 1.88% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 96, 3B 81, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .344 → .283; ISO .135 → .115; BABIP .328 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 520 PAwOBA .446 → .327 (−119)K% 17.9% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.88% | ÷0.961 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.19% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.940 | 10.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.940 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.75% | ÷1.031 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×0.940 | 18.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.67% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×1.017 | ×0.940 | 7.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.017 | ×0.940 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.76% | ÷1.421 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 5.33% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 92, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .446 → .327; ISO .300 → .197; BABIP .352 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 34 PAwOBA .225 → .169 (−56)K% 35.3% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.051 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 9.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.958 | 8.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 3.95% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .225 → .169; ISO .156 → .117; BABIP .211 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 217 PAwOBA .394 → .310 (−85)K% 15.7% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.67% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.06% | ÷1.101 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.948 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.948 | 2.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.82% | ÷0.991 | ×0.910 | ×1.015 | ×0.948 | 20.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.38% | ÷1.034 | ×0.820 | ×1.015 | ×0.948 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.34% | ÷0.964 | ×0.760 | ×1.015 | ×0.948 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.107 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.948 | 4.23% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 93, K 95, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .394 → .310; ISO .213 → .167; BABIP .331 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 80 PAwOBA .311 → .259 (−53)K% 16.2% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.25% | ÷1.050 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.25% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.28% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.048 | ×0.968 | 11.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.77% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | ×1.048 | ×0.968 | 7.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.109 | ×0.880 | ×1.048 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.89% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 122, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .311 → .259; ISO .200 → .165; BABIP .218 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 314 PAwOBA .349 → .289 (−61)K% 16.6% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.56% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.37% | ÷1.007 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 21.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.65% | ÷1.095 | ×0.860 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 7.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.098 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .349 → .289; ISO .171 → .127; BABIP .330 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAPiratas de Campeche · 53 PAwOBA .332 → .273 (−59)K% 20.8% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.75% | ÷1.032 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.32% | ÷0.969 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 18.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.027 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 9.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.331 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.51% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 106, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .332 → .273; ISO .152 → .108; BABIP .324 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .