Jordan Danks
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 26 | AAACWS | 238 | .279/.364/.428 | 6 | 3 | 88 | — | .242/.309/.363 | |
| 2013 | 26 | MLBCWS | 179 | .231/.313/.369 | 5 | 7 | 94 | 0.1 | ||
| 2014 | 27 | AAACWS | 406 | .270/.362/.460 | 16 | 2 | 88 | — | .238/.302/.381 | |
| 2014 | 27 | MLBCWS | 132 | .222/.305/.291 | 2 | 5 | 69 | 0.1 | ||
| 2015 | 28 | AAAPHI | 448 | .257/.319/.368 | 6 | 5 | 51 | — | .214/.258/.298 | |
| 2016 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2017 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 45 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 325 | 400 | 625 | 1.025 | 300 | 458 | 31 | 9 | 442 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 330 | 284 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 73 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 243 | 338 | 356 | 694 | 113 | 306 | 22 | 11 | 314 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 138 | 118 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 322 | 412 | 525 | 937 | 203 | 417 | 23 | 13 | 406 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 502 | 445 | 109 | 27 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 151 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 245 | 314 | 373 | 687 | 128 | 349 | 30 | 8 | 303 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 535 | 463 | 119 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 155 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 257 | 345 | 425 | 770 | 168 | 356 | 29 | 11 | 338 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 75 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 288 | 284 | 571 | 60 | 269 | 21 | 8 | 258 | 60 | -4 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 264 | 218 | 69 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 66 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 317 | 431 | 514 | 945 | 197 | 418 | 25 | 17 | 416 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 179 | 160 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 57 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 231 | 313 | 369 | 682 | 138 | 327 | 32 | 10 | 309 | 94 | -1 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 238 | 208 | 58 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 279 | 364 | 428 | 792 | 149 | 356 | 24 | 11 | 353 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 132 | 117 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 46 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 222 | 305 | 291 | 596 | 68 | 343 | 35 | 11 | 276 | 69 | -5 | -0 | +1 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 406 | 348 | 94 | 18 | 0 | 16 | 47 | 103 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 270 | 362 | 460 | 822 | 190 | 329 | 25 | 12 | 359 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 448 | 408 | 105 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 122 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 257 | 319 | 368 | 687 | 110 | 352 | 27 | 8 | 309 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 386 | 344 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 119 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 227 | 305 | 326 | 631 | 99 | 318 | 31 | 10 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +8 | 0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 45 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 311 | 439 | 750 | 195 | 400 | 42 | 7 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 330 | 296 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 89 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 230 | 298 | 328 | 626 | 98 | 301 | 27 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 138 | 125 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 272 | 331 | 448 | 779 | 176 | 390 | 33 | 8 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 502 | 456 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 175 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 224 | 278 | 327 | 604 | 103 | 333 | 35 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 535 | 479 | 112 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 41 | 177 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 234 | 301 | 367 | 668 | 134 | 336 | 33 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 75 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 288 | 284 | 571 | 60 | 269 | 21 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -4 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 264 | 233 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 78 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 266 | 347 | 433 | 781 | 167 | 359 | 30 | 11 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 179 | 160 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 57 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 231 | 313 | 369 | 682 | 138 | 327 | 32 | 10 | 308 | 94 | -1 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 238 | 215 | 52 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 67 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 242 | 309 | 363 | 672 | 121 | 325 | 28 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 132 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 220 | 298 | 288 | 586 | 68 | 343 | 35 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -5 | -0 | +1 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 406 | 365 | 87 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 127 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 302 | 381 | 682 | 142 | 306 | 31 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 448 | 420 | 90 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 144 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 214 | 258 | 298 | 556 | 83 | 305 | 32 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 45 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 311 | 439 | 750 | 195 | 429 | 42 | 7 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 21 | A RAW | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 45 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 325 | 400 | 625 | 1.025 | 300 | 458 | 31 | 9 | 442 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 421 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 135 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 242 | 308 | 363 | 671 | 121 | 336 | 29 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 468 | 402 | 107 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 55 | 105 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 266 | 360 | 405 | 766 | 139 | 338 | 22 | 12 | 341 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 502 | 456 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 175 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 224 | 278 | 327 | 604 | 103 | 345 | 35 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 502 | 445 | 109 | 27 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 151 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 245 | 314 | 373 | 687 | 128 | 349 | 30 | 8 | 303 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 535 | 479 | 112 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 41 | 177 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 234 | 301 | 367 | 668 | 134 | 346 | 33 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 535 | 463 | 119 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 155 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 257 | 345 | 425 | 770 | 168 | 356 | 29 | 11 | 338 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 300 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 94 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 257 | 334 | 400 | 734 | 143 | 338 | 28 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 339 | 285 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 50 | 82 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 295 | 400 | 460 | 860 | 165 | 379 | 24 | 15 | 381 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 375 | 89 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 124 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 237 | 311 | 365 | 676 | 128 | 326 | 30 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 417 | 368 | 95 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 114 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 258 | 342 | 402 | 744 | 144 | 344 | 27 | 11 | 334 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 483 | 113 | 18 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 173 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 234 | 301 | 358 | 659 | 124 | 325 | 32 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 538 | 465 | 120 | 20 | 0 | 18 | 61 | 149 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 258 | 348 | 417 | 765 | 159 | 332 | 28 | 11 | 338 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 448 | 420 | 90 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 144 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 214 | 258 | 298 | 556 | 83 | 310 | 32 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 448 | 408 | 105 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 122 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 257 | 319 | 368 | 687 | 110 | 352 | 27 | 8 | 309 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 45 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 311 | 439 | 750 | 195 | 400 | 42 | 7 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 425 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 135 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 240 | 308 | 360 | 668 | 120 | 327 | 29 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 502 | 463 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 175 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 220 | 278 | 322 | 599 | 102 | 333 | 35 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 535 | 484 | 112 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 41 | 177 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 231 | 301 | 364 | 665 | 132 | 336 | 33 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 301 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 94 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 256 | 334 | 399 | 733 | 143 | 339 | 28 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 374 | 89 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 124 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 238 | 311 | 366 | 677 | 128 | 326 | 30 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 487 | 113 | 18 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 173 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 232 | 301 | 355 | 656 | 123 | 315 | 32 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 448 | 420 | 90 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 144 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 214 | 258 | 298 | 556 | 83 | 305 | 32 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 386 | 344 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 119 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 227 | 305 | 326 | 631 | 99 | 318 | 31 | 10 | 288 | 80 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +8 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 131 | 17 | 0 | 13 | 64 | 200 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 226 | 305 | 323 | 628 | 97 | 318 | 31 | 10 | 288 | 80 | -15 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3292 | 2975 | 695 | 127 | 17 | 65 | 247 | 1041 | 23 | 77 | 27 | 234 | 297 | 353 | 651 | 120 | 333 | 32 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +8 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 206 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 233 | 298 | 353 | 651 | 119 | 333 | 32 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -15 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 448 PAwOBA .300 → .244 (−57)K% 27.2% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.23% | ÷1.019 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.37% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.17% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×1.033 | ×0.982 | 23.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.44% | ÷1.314 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×0.982 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.10% | ÷0.845 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 2.05% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 98, 2B 163, 3B 84, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .300 → .244; ISO .110 → .084; BABIP .352 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAACharlotte Knights · 406 PAwOBA .354 → .298 (−56)K% 25.4% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.37% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.84% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷0.966 | ×0.930 | ×1.017 | ×0.992 | 23.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×0.992 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.910 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.53% | ÷1.118 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 4.87% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 93, 2B 95, 3B 82, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .354 → .298; ISO .190 → .148; BABIP .329 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAACharlotte Knights · 238 PAwOBA .345 → .299 (−46)K% 23.9% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.95% | ÷1.023 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.92% | ÷0.939 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.15% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 25.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.96% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 1.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷0.972 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 3.44% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .345 → .299; ISO .149 → .131; BABIP .356 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAACharlotte Knights · 264 PAwOBA .407 → .344 (−63)K% 25.0% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.29% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.29% | ÷1.009 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×1.018 | 25.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.18% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.018 | 8.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×1.018 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.866 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 5.20% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .407 → .344; ISO .197 → .184; BABIP .418 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAACharlotte Knights · 535 PAwOBA .329 → .291 (−38)K% 29.0% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.97% | ÷1.049 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷0.965 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.35% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 24.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.79% | ÷1.232 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.95% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 2.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.074 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 3.67% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 96, 2B 146, 3B 80, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .329 → .291; ISO .168 → .142; BABIP .356 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAACharlotte Knights · 502 PAwOBA .296 → .265 (−31)K% 30.1% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.08% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.97% | ÷0.960 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.15% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.000 | ×1.048 | 23.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.18% | ÷1.001 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | ×1.048 | 7.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.926 | ×0.970 | ×1.000 | ×1.048 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.109 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 2.16% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 85, K 107, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .296 → .265; ISO .128 → .110; BABIP .349 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AABirmingham Barons · 330 PAwOBA .306 → .274 (−31)K% 22.1% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 23.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 5.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .306 → .274; ISO .113 → .101; BABIP .306 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 138 PAwOBA .399 → .326 (−73)K% 23.2% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 8.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 25.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 11.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 3.13% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .399 → .326; ISO .203 → .168; BABIP .417 → .390. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).