Randy Arozarena

LF Seattle Mariners

Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 6.750 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	29	MLBSEA	648	.219/.334/.388	20	20	109	0.6
2025	30	MLBSEA	709	.238/.337/.426	27	31	117	1.8
2026	31	MLBSEA	670	.281/.383/.484	26	26	148	4.7
2027PROJ	32	MLBSEA	566	.250/.351/.440	21	21	127	2.6
2028PROJ	33	MLBSEA	528	.241/.342/.420	19	13	119	1.4
2029PROJ	34	MLBSEA	469	.229/.330/.396	16	6	109	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.750First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$22M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV75

xwOBA71

Barrel%58

Speed42

Bat Spd33

Form.258/.356/.483 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .252/.351/.447

CompsTommy Pham (age 32) · Justin Ruggiano (age 32) · Raul Mondesi (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 129127vR 121

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .351 / .440

PA566

HR21

SB21

K%23

BB%10

BABIP297

ISO190

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

270.233

POWER

Barrel%

589.4

Avg EV

7590.8

Bat Spd

3369.5

SPEED

Sprint

4227.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%24%▼25% over 122 PA (60d) · proj 23%

BB%10%·10% over 122 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.225▲▲.272 over 103 AB (60d) · proj .195

HR/BB6.9%▲8.1% over 74 BBE (60d) · proj 6.1%

BABIP.307▲.397 over 68 BIP (60d) · proj .299

SLASH.258/.356/.483▲proj .252/.351/.447

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1475 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

412

1063

—

wRC+

121

107

◀L

wOBA

347

326

◀L

ISO

213

161

◀◀L

BABIP

288

293

—

23.8%

26.8%

◀L

BB%

9.5%

10.2%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+2.7	$23M	+$1M
Totals		$22M		$23M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	AAA	Toros de Tijuana	—	22	20	2	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	100	182	150	332	50	118	14	9	163	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	232	190	55	7	2	0	15	34	14	16	10	289	384	347	731	58	350	15	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	195	163	41	10	1	3	27	34	3	8	3	252	368	380	748	129	299	17	14	339	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	295	265	73	22	3	8	13	53	12	10	4	275	338	472	810	196	312	18	4	352	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	292	260	76	25	1	14	16	61	14	7	7	292	366	558	923	265	335	21	5	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	311	267	62	16	0	5	28	59	11	17	5	232	330	348	678	116	278	19	9	308	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	102	91	36	5	0	7	6	25	4	9	3	396	455	681	1.137	286	492	25	6	489	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	63	56	12	4	0	0	5	16	2	3	0	214	302	286	587	71	300	25	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	23	20	6	1	0	1	2	4	1	2	1	300	391	500	891	200	333	17	9	396	158	+2	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.4
2019	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	283	246	88	18	2	12	24	48	11	9	7	358	438	593	1.031	236	404	17	8	448	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	116	97	30	7	2	3	13	23	6	8	5	309	422	515	938	206	380	20	11	416	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	64	18	2	0	7	6	22	5	4	0	281	387	641	1.027	359	306	29	8	436	184	+8	+1	-1	-1	+2	0.8
2021	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	604	529	145	32	3	20	56	170	14	20	10	274	359	459	818	185	363	28	9	362	128	+20	+0	-1	-6	+13	2.7
2022	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	645	586	154	41	3	20	46	156	11	32	12	263	328	445	774	183	325	24	7	342	117	+13	+2	-5	-7	+14	1.7
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	654	551	140	19	3	23	80	156	18	22	10	254	367	425	791	171	310	24	12	355	126	+20	+0	-7	-7	+14	2.1
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	648	549	120	33	0	20	73	169	22	20	10	219	334	388	722	169	275	26	11	327	109	+7	+0	-8	-7	+14	0.6
2025	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	709	613	146	32	1	27	64	191	27	31	6	238	337	426	762	188	297	27	9	340	117	+15	+4	-9	-8	+15	1.8
2026	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	670	572	161	34	2	26	68	145	26	26	8	281	383	484	867	203	333	22	10	384	148	+38	+2	-1	-7	+15	4.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4029	3484	890	194	12	144	395	1013	124	157	57	255	352	442	794	187	317	25	10	353	125	+121	+9	-32	-41	+87	14.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	—	22	21	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	95	136	143	279	48	115	14	5	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	195	171	39	9	1	2	19	42	3	8	3	228	316	327	644	99	278	22	10	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	295	268	66	21	2	8	10	75	12	10	4	246	303	429	733	183	297	25	3	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	311	274	58	14	0	4	21	78	11	17	5	212	294	307	601	95	274	25	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	102	93	32	4	0	5	4	30	4	9	3	344	396	548	944	204	459	29	4	394	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	23	20	6	1	0	1	2	4	1	2	1	300	391	500	891	200	333	17	9	402	158	+2	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.4
2019	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	283	253	75	15	2	10	17	63	11	9	7	296	367	490	857	194	353	22	6	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	116	102	27	6	2	2	8	29	6	8	5	265	353	422	775	157	341	25	7	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	64	18	2	0	7	6	22	5	4	0	281	387	641	1.027	359	306	29	8	440	184	+8	+1	-1	-1	+2	0.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	604	533	145	33	3	21	52	170	14	20	10	272	352	463	816	191	363	28	9	357	128	+20	+0	-1	-6	+13	2.7
2022	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	645	588	154	42	3	21	44	156	11	32	12	262	325	451	776	189	325	24	7	341	117	+13	+2	-5	-7	+14	1.7
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	654	552	139	19	3	24	79	156	18	22	10	252	364	428	791	176	310	24	12	354	126	+20	+0	-7	-7	+14	2.1
2024	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	648	549	122	34	0	21	73	169	22	20	10	222	337	399	736	177	275	26	11	330	109	+7	+0	-8	-7	+14	0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	709	615	148	33	1	28	62	191	27	31	6	241	337	434	771	193	297	27	9	342	117	+15	+4	-9	-8	+15	1.8
2026	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	670	573	163	35	2	27	67	145	26	26	8	284	384	494	878	209	333	22	10	387	148	+38	+2	-1	-7	+15	4.7
2016	21	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	254	211	23	11	0	0	16	39	14	16	10	109	220	161	381	52	133	15	6	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	254	210	57	8	2	0	17	37	14	16	10	271	365	329	694	57	328	15	7	308	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	782	698	167	47	5	16	46	186	29	25	14	239	313	390	703	150	301	24	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	782	688	190	57	5	25	56	148	29	25	14	276	356	483	838	206	317	19	7	367	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	476	424	104	22	0	10	29	125	17	29	8	245	319	368	687	123	323	26	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	476	414	110	25	0	12	39	100	17	29	8	266	353	413	766	147	322	21	8	342	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	422	375	107	22	3	13	27	95	18	19	13	285	362	464	826	179	349	23	6	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	422	363	124	26	4	16	39	75	18	19	13	342	431	567	998	226	394	18	9	436	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	64	18	2	0	7	6	22	5	4	0	281	387	641	1.027	359	306	29	8	440	184	+8	+1	-1	-1	+2	0.8
2020	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	64	18	2	0	7	6	22	5	4	0	281	387	641	1.027	359	306	29	8	436	184	+8	+1	-1	-1	+2	0.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	604	533	145	33	3	21	52	170	14	20	10	272	352	463	816	191	357	28	9	357	128	+20	+0	-1	-6	+13	2.7
2021	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	604	529	145	32	3	20	56	170	14	20	10	274	359	459	818	185	363	28	9	362	128	+20	+0	-1	-6	+13	2.7
2022	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	645	588	154	42	3	21	44	156	11	32	12	262	325	451	776	189	322	24	7	341	117	+13	+2	-5	-7	+14	1.7
2022	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	645	586	154	41	3	20	46	156	11	32	12	263	328	445	774	183	325	24	7	342	117	+13	+2	-5	-7	+14	1.7
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	654	552	139	19	3	24	79	156	18	22	10	252	364	428	791	176	305	24	12	354	126	+20	+0	-7	-7	+14	2.1
2023	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	654	551	140	19	3	23	80	156	18	22	10	254	367	425	791	171	310	24	12	355	126	+20	+0	-7	-7	+14	2.1
2024	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	648	549	122	34	0	21	73	169	22	20	10	222	337	399	736	177	278	26	11	330	109	+7	+0	-8	-7	+14	0.6
2024	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	648	549	120	33	0	20	73	169	22	20	10	219	334	388	722	169	275	26	11	327	109	+7	+0	-8	-7	+14	0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	709	615	148	33	1	28	62	191	27	31	6	241	337	434	771	193	299	27	9	342	117	+15	+4	-9	-8	+15	1.8
2025	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	709	613	146	32	1	27	64	191	27	31	6	238	337	426	762	188	297	27	9	340	117	+15	+4	-9	-8	+15	1.8
2026	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	670	573	163	35	2	27	67	145	26	26	8	284	384	494	878	209	336	22	10	387	148	+38	+2	-1	-7	+15	4.7
2026	31	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	670	572	161	34	2	26	68	145	26	26	8	281	383	484	867	203	333	22	10	384	148	+38	+2	-1	-7	+15	4.7
2016	21	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	254	222	23	11	0	0	16	39	14	16	10	104	220	153	373	50	115	15	6	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	782	701	167	47	5	16	46	186	29	25	14	238	313	388	701	150	289	24	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	476	427	104	22	0	10	29	125	17	29	8	244	319	365	684	122	320	26	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	422	374	107	22	3	13	27	95	18	19	13	286	362	465	827	179	349	23	6	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	65	18	2	0	7	6	22	5	4	0	277	387	631	1.017	354	306	29	8	440	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	604	533	145	33	3	21	52	170	14	20	10	272	352	463	816	191	363	28	9	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	645	585	154	42	3	21	44	156	11	32	12	263	325	453	778	190	325	24	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	654	552	139	19	3	24	79	156	18	22	10	252	364	428	791	176	310	24	12	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	648	548	122	34	0	21	73	169	22	20	10	223	337	400	737	177	275	26	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	709	614	148	33	1	28	62	191	27	31	6	241	337	435	772	194	297	27	9	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	670	572	163	35	2	27	67	145	26	26	8	285	384	495	879	210	333	22	10	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	648	548	122	34	0	21	73	169	22	20	10	223	337	400	737	177	275	26	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	709	614	148	33	1	28	62	191	27	31	6	241	337	435	772	194	297	27	9	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	670	572	163	35	2	27	67	145	26	26	8	285	384	495	879	210	333	22	10	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	620	531	134	28	2	24	61	144	23	23	6	253	354	447	801	195	299	23	10	356	127	+20	+2	-1	-7	+13	2.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	566	484	121	25	2	21	56	132	21	21	5	250	351	440	791	190	297	23	10	352	127	+18	+2	-1	-6	+12	2.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	528	453	110	23	1	19	51	126	19	13	4	243	344	427	771	183	291	24	10	344	119	+12	+1	-5	-6	+11	1.4
2029	34	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	469	406	93	18	1	16	44	115	16	6	3	232	332	402	735	171	280	25	9	330	109	+5	+0	-6	-5	+10	0.5
2030	35	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	401	347	76	14	1	13	37	102	14	2	2	220	319	376	695	156	269	25	9	314	99	-1	-0	-6	-4	+9	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	528	453	109	22	1	19	51	126	19	13	4	241	342	420	762	179	288	24	10	341	119	+12	+1	-5	-6	+11	1.4
2029	34	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	469	406	93	18	1	16	44	115	16	6	3	229	330	396	726	167	278	25	9	327	109	+5	+0	-6	-5	+10	0.5
2030	35	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	401	347	76	14	1	13	37	102	14	2	2	217	317	370	687	153	266	25	9	311	99	-1	-0	-6	-4	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5427	4690	1168	248	15	192	527	1356	173	178	66	249	347	431	778	182	307	25	10	347	113	+138	+9	-50	-56	+118	16.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	562	140	30	2	23	63	162	21	21	8	249	347	432	779	183	307	25	10	347	113	+16	+1	-6	-7	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	7904	6872	1692	381	25	258	689	1929	271	286	115	246	339	422	760	175	303	24	9	335	113	+156	+11	-51	-62	+130	18.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	139	31	2	21	57	159	22	24	9	246	339	419	758	173	303	24	9	335	113	+17	+1	-5	-7	+14	2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 283 PAwOBA .439 → .368 (−71)K% 17.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.96%	÷0.986	×1.290	—	—	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.48%	÷1.035	×0.710	—	×1.048	6.10%
HBP% /PA	3.89%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	3.99%
Singles /BIP	28.28%	÷1.014	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	25.00%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.917	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	8.00%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	6.06%	÷0.982	×0.780	—	×1.048	5.04%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .439 → .368; ISO .236 → .194; BABIP .404 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 116 PAwOBA .400 → .339 (−62)K% 19.8% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.83%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.48%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.96%
HBP% /PA	5.17%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	4.55%
Singles /BIP	24.32%	÷0.974	×0.920	—	×1.012	23.25%
Doubles /BIP	9.46%	÷1.070	×0.840	—	×1.012	7.51%
Triples /BIP	2.70%	÷1.108	×0.940	—	×1.012	2.32%
Home runs /BIP	4.05%	÷1.108	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.96%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .400 → .339; ISO .206 → .161; BABIP .380 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 311 PAwOBA .301 → .274 (−27)K% 19.0% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.97%	÷0.975	×1.290	—	—	25.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.68%	÷0.960	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.74%
HBP% /PA	3.54%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	3.64%
Singles /BIP	19.71%	÷0.984	×0.900	×1.050	×1.050	19.87%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.957	×0.810	×1.050	×1.050	7.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.984	×0.810	×1.050	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.40%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.16%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .301 → .274; ISO .116 → .103; BABIP .278 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 102 PAwOBA .475 → .394 (−80)K% 24.5% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.51%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	29.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.12%
HBP% /PA	3.92%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	3.50%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷1.014	×0.920	×1.050	×1.027	35.57%
Doubles /BIP	7.58%	÷0.973	×0.840	×1.050	×1.027	7.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.050	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.61%	÷1.215	×0.800	—	×1.027	7.17%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .475 → .394; ISO .286 → .200; BABIP .492 → .459. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 295 PAwOBA .347 → .313 (−34)K% 18.0% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.97%	÷1.007	×1.420	—	—	25.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.41%	÷0.990	×0.750	—	×1.012	3.38%
HBP% /PA	4.07%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	3.83%
Singles /BIP	18.87%	÷0.992	×0.920	×0.999	×1.012	17.69%
Doubles /BIP	10.38%	÷0.970	×0.960	×0.999	×1.012	10.38%
Triples /BIP	1.42%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.999	×1.012	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	3.77%	÷0.824	×0.880	—	×1.012	4.08%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .347 → .313; ISO .196 → .185; BABIP .312 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 195 PAwOBA .333 → .281 (−52)K% 17.4% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.44%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.85%	÷1.048	×0.700	—	×1.042	9.64%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	1.39%
Singles /BIP	20.93%	÷0.992	×0.920	×0.997	×1.042	20.16%
Doubles /BIP	7.75%	÷1.009	×0.840	×0.997	×1.042	6.71%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷1.093	×0.940	×0.997	×1.042	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷1.315	×0.800	—	×1.042	1.47%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 119, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .333 → .281; ISO .129 → .101; BABIP .299 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAToros de Tijuana · 22 PAwOBA .159 → .138 (−21)K% 13.6% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.64%	÷1.062	×1.200	—	—	15.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.967	×0.930	—	×1.050	5.94%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.926	×0.830	—	×1.050	5.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.941	×0.920	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.278	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 93, 2B 85, 3B 88, K 112, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .159 → .138; ISO .050 → .048; BABIP .118 → .115. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Shin-Soo Choolast yr '20 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,116 PA	10.7	7,116	218	157	275	377	449	-66	-95	34.2	31.0
/162	664	20	15	-6.2	-8.8	3.2	pk7: 28
#2Kirk Gibson'79-'95 * career totals — 16 seasons, 6,656 PA	10.0	6,656	255	284	264*	350*	484*	-71	-26	35.1	30.6
/162	664	25	28	-7.1	-2.6	3.5	pk7: 26
#3Ryan Klesko'92-'07 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,516 PA	9.8	6,516	278	91	267*	355*	487*	-92	-37	33.7	29.2
/162	664	28	9	-9.3	-3.8	3.4	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	9.0	5,970	213	197	251	345	436	-64	-61	25.4	23.4
/162	664	24	22	-7.1	-6.8	2.8	pk7: 21
#4Jeromy Burnitz'93-'06 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	315	74	243*	330*	466*	-62	-31	22.9	21.7
/162	664	32	7	-6.3	-3.1	2.3	pk7: 20
#5Yasiel Puiglast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,376 PA	5.1	3,376	132	79	277	348	475	-36	-12	17.1	17.1
/162	664	26	16	-7.1	-2.3	3.4	pk7: 17
#6Tommy Phamlast yr '25 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,826 PA	7.3	4,826	149	131	257	345	422	-38	-44	16.1	16.3
/162	664	21	18	-5.3	-6.1	2.2	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Randy Arozarena (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	250/351/443	193	299	22	21	23%	10%	127	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tommy Pham 2020 · MLB	32	54→58	54→55	53→55	57	274/363/461	187	321	22	20	21%	12%	133	+3.7	245/336/401	156	299	18	16	23%	11%	110	+2.1	234/321/389	155	289	18	16	24%	11%	103	+1.4
✕Justin Ruggiano 2014 · MLB	32	50→60	55→60	48→55	48	258/322/451	193	311	23	20	24%	8%	117	+2.6	240/308/405	165	316	19	13	29%	8%	101	+1.4	227/296/379	152	313	17	10	31%	8%	90	+0.3
●Raul Mondesi 2003 · MLB	32	46→52	57→60	51→55	54	244/318/447	204	257	25	20	18%	9%	115	+2.4	249/315/436	187	276	22	15	18%	8%	111	+2.1	251/315/436	185	280	21	15	18%	8%	112	+1.1
✕Aaron Boone 2005 · MLB	32	49→57	54→60	55	50	254/315/438	184	270	22	21	16%	7%	111	+2.1	247/309/384	137	276	15	10	17%	6%	97	+1.1	247/312/373	127	278	14	8	16%	6%	96	+0.7
✕Robbie Grossman 2022 · MLB	32	48→58	53→50	53→50	59	243/347/420	177	285	20	17	22%	13%	119	+2.7	228/331/366	138	292	14	9	24%	13%	101	+1.4	218/324/333	115	286	10	5	25%	13%	91	+0.4
✕Steven Souza Jr. 2020 · MLB	31	46→56	55→60	54→55	53	236/328/426	191	298	22	14	28%	11%	113	+2.3	222/303/393	171	309	19	11	32%	9%	97	+1.1	198/285/370	171	275	19	9	33%	9%	83	+0.0
●Ruben Rivera 2006 · MLB	32	51→58	53→60	53→55	48	259/328/434	175	312	22	17	24%	8%	115	+2.4	245/312/422	177	291	21	15	23%	7%	107	+1.8	278/355/475	197	297	25	21	16%	9%	133	+2.8
●Mike Cameron 2005 · MLB	32	45→53	58→60	53→55	53	240/327/452	211	283	25	21	25%	10%	119	+2.7	255/336/461	206	310	22	20	24%	10%	124	+3.1	248/335/455	208	302	23	20	25%	10%	123	+3.0
✕Eric Byrnes 2008 · MLB	32	53→56	53→60	61→60	50	269/326/451	182	286	20	30	15%	7%	118	+2.6	239/297/405	166	255	17	21	14%	7%	97	+1.1	216/268/378	162	223	17	15	13%	6%	80	-0.0
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	48	53→55	54→55	49	247/321/422	174	290	21	21	23%	8%	109	+2.0	235/318/397	162	267	19	19	19%	9%	103	+1.6	203/292/360	156	229	17	21	20%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Carlos Gómez 2018 · MLB	32	48→58	52→60	50→65	44	240/312/408	168	310	19	19	28%	7%	103	+1.6	222/299/377	155	280	18	17	27%	6%	92	+0.7	204/283/345	141	255	16	19	26%	6%	79	-0.1
●Hunter Pence 2015 · MLB	32	54→63	54→60	53→50	49	278/332/464	186	311	21	12	18%	7%	123	+3.0	278/335/455	177	323	21	8	20%	8%	122	+2.9	276/336/441	165	324	20	3	20%	8%	120	+1.9
✕Austin Slater 2023 · MLB	30	53→62	52→55	57→55	52	259/349/430	171	335	19	23	27%	11%	122	+2.9	245/330/375	130	333	14	12	28%	10%	102	+1.5	233/316/340	107	321	12	7	29%	10%	89	+0.2
★Jayson Werth 2012 · MLB	33	50→60	55→60	52→55	55	255/345/445	190	306	22	15	24%	11%	124	+3.1	283/368/458	175	334	19	12	20%	11%	135	+3.8	300/388/474	174	348	19	10	18%	12%	146	+4.0
●Starling Marte 2021 · MLB	32	56→66	54→60	56→60	45	285/336/474	189	313	21	24	17%	5%	127	+3.3	292/351/449	157	342	16	33	19%	6%	126	+3.2	291/351/435	144	347	15	39	19%	6%	124	+2.4
✕Luis Terrero 2013 · AAA	33	52→59	58→60	53→55	46	270/335/475	204	323	26	24	25%	7%	127	+3.3	254/328/413	159	311	20	17	24%	8%	110	+2.1	248/333/397	149	305	20	15	24%	9%	107	+0.8
●Brian Dozier 2019 · MLB	32	46→56	58→65	50	54	245/326/452	207	270	25	13	20%	10%	118	+2.7	238/326/419	181	275	22	8	22%	11%	111	+2.1	235/335/426	190	268	25	4	22%	12%	117	+2.1
●AJ Pollock 2020 · MLB	32	49→59	57→65	53→55	47	256/317/459	203	285	25	14	20%	7%	117	+2.6	269/320/482	213	300	28	9	20%	6%	124	+3.1	267/316/467	200	296	25	7	19%	6%	120	+1.8
●Michael Tucker 2002 · MLB	31	49→51	52→55	53→55	54	249/328/427	178	288	18	19	20%	10%	113	+2.3	249/325/411	162	294	16	16	20%	10%	108	+1.9	249/330/407	159	293	15	14	20%	10%	110	+1.7
●Joe Dillon 2007 · MLB	31	51→52	55	52→45	50	263/337/446	183	291	23	12	19%	8%	122	+2.9	242/314/396	154	267	16	8	16%	8%	101	+1.4	234/311/377	143	257	15	7	15%	9%	96	+0.6

Randy Arozarena

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps