Randy Arozarena — OGILVIE

Randy ArozarenaLF Seattle Mariners

Age 31 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 5.750 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION379 act + 295 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 130127vR 118

AVG/OBP/SLG.264 / .362 / .449

PA295

HR10

SB13

K%23

BB%10

BABIP324

ISO185

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

689.1%

xwOBA

700.331

POWER50

Barrel%

599.6

Avg EV

7791.0

Bat Spd

3369.5

EYE55

Chase%

9021.8%

SPEED55

Sprint

3726.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1475 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

412

1063

—

wRC+

124

108

◀L

wOBA

347

326

◀L

ISO

213

161

◀◀L

BABIP

288

293

—

23.8%

26.8%

◀L

BB%

9.5%

10.2%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$6M	+1.7	$14M	+$7M
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	INTL	2 teams	—	254	213	24	12	0	0	14	37	14	16	10	113	216	169	385	56	136	15	6	137	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	2 teams	—	254	210	57	8	2	0	17	37	14	16	10	271	365	329	694	57	328	15	7	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	3 teams	—	782	701	169	48	4	19	43	190	29	25	14	241	312	402	714	161	302	24	5	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	3 teams	—	782	688	190	57	5	25	56	148	29	25	14	276	356	483	838	206	317	19	7	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	3 teams	—	476	424	101	22	0	10	29	129	17	29	8	238	313	361	674	123	317	27	6	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	3 teams	—	476	414	110	25	0	12	39	100	17	29	8	266	353	413	766	147	322	21	8	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	—	422	376	105	22	3	13	26	98	18	19	13	279	355	457	812	178	345	23	6	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	—	422	363	124	26	4	16	39	75	18	19	13	342	431	567	998	226	394	18	9	436	192	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	64	18	2	0	7	6	22	5	4	0	281	387	641	1.027	359	306	29	8	440	195	+8	+1	-1	-1	+2	0.9
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	64	18	2	0	7	6	22	5	4	0	281	387	641	1.027	359	306	29	8	436	192	+8	+1	-1	-1	+2	0.9
2021	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	604	529	144	33	3	21	56	170	14	20	10	272	357	465	822	193	359	28	9	354	129	+20	+0	-1	-6	+17	3.0
2021	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	604	529	145	32	3	20	56	170	14	20	10	274	359	459	818	185	363	28	9	362	135	+24	+0	-1	-6	+17	3.4
2022	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	645	586	154	43	3	21	46	156	11	32	12	263	328	454	782	191	324	24	7	338	117	+12	+2	-5	-7	+18	2.0
2022	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	645	586	154	41	3	20	46	156	11	32	12	263	328	445	774	183	325	24	7	342	120	+15	+2	-5	-7	+18	2.3
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	654	551	138	20	3	24	80	156	18	22	10	250	364	428	792	178	303	24	12	350	126	+19	+0	-7	-7	+19	2.4
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	654	551	140	19	3	23	80	156	18	22	10	254	367	425	791	171	310	24	12	355	130	+22	+0	-7	-7	+19	2.7
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	648	549	123	34	0	21	73	169	22	20	10	224	339	401	739	177	281	26	11	330	111	+8	+0	-8	-7	+18	1.1
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	648	549	120	33	0	20	73	169	22	20	10	219	334	388	722	169	275	26	11	327	108	+6	+0	-8	-7	+18	0.9
2025	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	709	613	149	33	1	28	64	191	27	31	6	243	341	437	778	194	303	27	9	342	120	+16	+4	-9	-8	+20	2.4
2025	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	709	613	146	32	1	27	64	191	27	31	6	238	337	426	762	188	297	27	9	340	119	+15	+4	-9	-8	+20	2.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	MLB	SEA	—	379	325	93	21	1	11	37	82	14	19	5	286	383	458	841	172	349	22	10	370	141	+18	+2	-1	-4	+11	2.5
YTD	31	MLB	SEA	—	379	325	93	21	1	11	37	82	14	19	5	286	383	458	841	172	349	22	10	374	145	+19	+2	-1	-4	+11	2.7
ROS	31	MLB	SEA	100%	295	254	67	15	1	10	29	69	10	13	3	264	362	449	811	185	320	23	10	359	133	+11	+1	-1	-3	+8	1.7
ROS	31	MLB	SEA	100%	295	254	66	14	1	10	29	69	10	13	3	260	358	441	799	181	317	23	10	329	110	+3	+1	-1	-3	+8	1.0
FULL	31	MLB	SEA	—	674	579	159	35	2	21	66	151	24	32	8	275	372	451	823	176	336	22	10	352	128	+21	+3	-2	-7	+19	3.5
TOT	31	MLB	SEA	—	674	579	160	36	2	21	66	151	24	32	8	276	374	454	828	178	338	22	10	365	138	+29	+3	-2	-7	+19	4.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	SEA	100%	660	567	142	31	2	21	65	158	23	25	6	250	351	423	774	173	309	24	10	348	125	+18	+3	-5	-7	+19	2.9
2028	33	MLB	SEA	100%	581	499	121	26	1	18	57	142	20	17	4	242	344	407	751	164	302	24	10	340	118	+12	+2	-5	-6	+16	1.9
2029	34	MLB	SEA	100%	531	456	107	22	1	16	52	133	18	11	3	235	337	393	729	158	293	25	10	329	110	+6	+1	-6	-6	+15	1.1
2030	35	MLB	SEA	100%	474	409	91	18	1	13	46	122	16	7	2	222	325	367	692	144	283	26	10	317	100	+0	+1	-7	-5	+13	0.3
2027	32	MLB	SEA	100%	660	567	141	30	2	21	65	158	23	25	6	249	350	420	769	171	305	24	10	319	102	+2	+3	-5	-7	+19	1.1
2028	33	MLB	SEA	100%	581	499	120	25	1	18	57	142	20	17	4	240	342	403	745	162	299	24	10	311	96	-3	+2	-5	-6	+16	0.4
2029	34	MLB	SEA	100%	531	456	105	21	1	15	52	133	18	11	3	230	333	379	712	149	290	25	10	300	88	-7	+1	-6	-6	+15	-0.3
2030	35	MLB	SEA	100%	474	409	91	18	1	13	46	122	16	7	2	222	325	367	692	144	280	26	10	288	79	-11	+1	-7	-5	+13	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5900	5097	1252	268	16	195	576	1492	185	204	67	246	344	419	763	174	307	25	10	331	111	+75	+14	-54	-61	+167	14.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	562	138	30	2	21	63	164	20	22	7	246	343	418	761	173	307	25	10	331	111	+8	+2	-6	-7	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	7811	6791	1653	381	23	242	686	1942	262	291	111	243	336	413	749	170	303	25	9	329	110	+88	+14	-54	-78	+221	19.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	138	32	2	20	57	162	22	24	9	244	337	414	751	170	305	25	9	329	110	+7	+1	-4	-6	+18	1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	AAA	Toros de Tijuana	—	22	20	2	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	100	182	150	332	50	118	14	9	163	-17	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2016	21	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	232	190	55	7	2	0	15	34	14	16	10	289	384	347	731	58	350	15	6	322	104	+1	-1	—	—	+7	0.7
2017	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	195	163	41	10	1	3	27	34	3	8	3	252	368	380	748	129	299	17	14	339	118	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.0
2017	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	295	265	73	22	3	8	13	53	12	10	4	275	338	472	810	196	312	18	4	352	128	+9	+0	—	—	+8	1.8
2017	22	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	292	260	76	25	1	14	16	61	14	7	7	292	366	558	923	265	335	21	5	400	164	+21	-1	—	—	+8	2.9
2018	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	311	267	62	16	0	5	28	59	11	17	5	232	330	348	678	116	278	19	9	308	94	-2	+1	—	—	+9	0.8
2018	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	102	91	36	5	0	7	6	25	4	9	3	396	455	681	1.137	286	492	25	6	489	232	+15	+1	—	—	+3	1.9
2018	23	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	63	56	12	4	0	0	5	16	2	3	0	214	302	286	587	71	300	25	8	275	69	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2019	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	23	20	6	1	0	1	2	4	1	2	1	300	391	500	891	200	333	17	9	396	161	+2	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.4
2019	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	283	246	88	18	2	12	24	48	11	9	7	358	438	593	1.031	236	404	17	8	448	201	+32	-1	—	—	+8	4.0
2019	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	116	97	30	7	2	3	13	23	6	8	5	309	422	515	938	206	380	20	11	416	176	+10	-0	—	—	+3	1.3
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	64	18	2	0	7	6	22	5	4	0	281	387	641	1.027	359	306	29	8	436	192	+8	+1	-1	-1	+2	0.9
2021	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	604	529	145	32	3	20	56	170	14	20	10	274	359	459	818	185	363	28	9	362	135	+24	+0	-1	-6	+17	3.4
2022	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	645	586	154	41	3	20	46	156	11	32	12	263	328	445	774	183	325	24	7	342	120	+15	+2	-5	-7	+18	2.3
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	654	551	140	19	3	23	80	156	18	22	10	254	367	425	791	171	310	24	12	355	130	+22	+0	-7	-7	+19	2.7
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	648	549	120	33	0	20	73	169	22	20	10	219	334	388	722	169	275	26	11	327	108	+6	+0	-8	-7	+18	0.9
2025	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	709	613	146	32	1	27	64	191	27	31	6	238	337	426	762	188	297	27	9	340	119	+15	+4	-9	-8	+20	2.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3359	2912	729	160	10	118	327	868	98	131	49	250	346	434	780	183	314	26	10	347	124	+91	+7	-31	-34	+95	13.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Shin-Soo Choolast yr '20 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,116 PA	14	7,116	218	157	275	377	449	-66	-95	34.2	30.9
	/162	664	20	15	275	377	449	-6.2	-8.8	3.2	pk7: 28
#2Jayson Werthlast yr '17 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,366 PA	15	6,366	229	132	267	360	455	-68	-36	32.0	29.7
	/162	664	24	14	267	360	455	-7.1	-3.7	3.3	pk7: 27
#3Justin Uptonlast yr '22 AS×4SS×2 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,649 PA	16	7,649	325	151	261	342	469	-82	-91	29.6	27.0
	/162	664	28	13	261	342	469	-7.1	-7.9	2.6	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,635	222	234	249	344	426	-71	-66	26.7	23.5
	/162	664	22	23	249	344	426	-7.1	-6.7	2.7	pk7: 20
#4José Cruz Jr.last yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,179 PA	9	4,179	153	81	247	336	445	-35	-7	17.4	17.2
	/162	664	24	13	247	336	445	-5.6	-1.1	2.8	pk7: 17
#5Matt Lawton IIIlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,499 PA	6	3,499	89	111	269	368	420	-29	-50	12.7	12.7
	/162	664	17	21	269	368	420	-5.5	-9.6	2.4	pk7: 13
#6Bobby Higginsonlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,882 PA	5	2,882	83	60	270	354	438	-22	-14	12.6	12.6
	/162	664	19	14	270	354	438	-5.1	-3.3	2.9	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Randy Arozarena (OGILVIE)	31	45	50	55	55	276/374/454	178	338	21	32	22%	10%	138	+4.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	49	54→55	54→55	49	252/326/430	178	295	22	21	23%	8%	115	+2.8	238/321/403	165	270	19	19	19%	9%	106	+2.2	214/303/391	177	236	21	21	20%	9%	94	+0.6
●Mike Cameron 2003 · MLB	30	49→53	55→60	58→55	55	250/345/446	197	307	22	27	25%	12%	127	+3.6	247/335/452	205	300	23	21	25%	11%	124	+3.4	248/337/456	208	304	23	20	25%	11%	123	+3.4
✕Will Venable 2014 · MLB	31	52→55	55→60	61→60	47	267/321/463	197	314	21	26	22%	7%	121	+3.2	239/300/373	134	299	14	18	24%	7%	89	+0.9	220/285/321	101	282	10	16	24%	7%	65	-0.4
●Michael Tucker 2002 · MLB	31	50→52	52→55	53→55	55	251/333/430	179	291	18	19	20%	10%	118	+3.0	250/329/414	164	296	16	16	20%	10%	111	+2.5	250/334/409	159	295	15	14	20%	11%	108	+2.0
✕Steven Souza Jr. 2020 · MLB	31	46→56	55→60	54→55	53	237/330/431	194	301	22	14	28%	11%	117	+2.9	230/312/413	183	321	20	11	32%	10%	105	+2.1	217/304/413	196	303	22	9	34%	10%	99	+0.5
●Raul Mondesi 2002 · MLB	31	49→52	59→60	54→55	55	258/336/471	213	279	27	26	19%	10%	130	+3.8	251/326/451	200	272	24	18	17%	10%	121	+3.2	248/323/445	197	267	23	16	17%	9%	112	+2.0
✕Austin Slater 2023 · MLB	30	54→64	52→55	57→55	53	264/355/438	174	343	19	23	27%	11%	129	+3.7	248/332/379	131	337	14	12	28%	10%	105	+2.1	234/318/342	108	324	12	7	29%	10%	87	+0.3
●Carlos Gómez 2017 · MLB	31	49→58	50→60	51→65	45	248/311/406	159	310	17	22	26%	7%	103	+1.9	230/308/394	164	294	19	18	27%	7%	99	+1.7	221/305/387	166	281	19	19	27%	6%	95	+0.8
●Tommy Pham 2020 · MLB	32	54→58	55	53→55	58	274/366/463	190	321	22	20	21%	12%	140	+4.5	246/340/407	161	299	18	16	23%	12%	115	+2.7	235/324/391	156	291	17	16	24%	11%	101	+1.7
●Eric Byrnes 2007 · MLB	31	50→57	54→60	55→60	49	258/313/446	189	274	21	18	16%	6%	114	+2.7	257/317/433	176	275	19	27	14%	7%	112	+2.6	253/315/422	168	270	17	30	13%	7%	104	+1.4
✕Justin Ruggiano 2013 · MLB	31	55→63	53→60	50→55	45	273/328/456	183	345	20	22	26%	8%	122	+3.3	254/319/431	177	320	21	16	26%	8%	112	+2.6	242/313/411	169	306	21	15	27%	8%	102	+1.1
✕Dylan Moore 2023 · MLB	30	44→47	52→50	57→65	52	222/331/394	172	292	19	35	29%	11%	109	+2.4	216/319/391	175	291	18	32	30%	11%	103	+1.9	201/303/378	176	270	20	37	31%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Jonathan Villar 2022 · MLB	31	50→60	50	53→65	49	250/319/403	153	314	18	24	26%	9%	105	+2.1	236/293/378	142	305	15	19	26%	7%	87	+0.8	226/270/352	127	298	11	25	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Aaron Boone 2005 · MLB	32	49→57	54→60	55	51	255/318/440	185	272	22	21	16%	8%	115	+2.7	249/314/386	137	279	15	10	17%	7%	98	+1.6	249/319/376	128	281	14	8	16%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Robbie Grossman 2022 · MLB	32	49→58	53→50	53→50	61	248/355/431	182	292	20	17	22%	13%	128	+3.6	229/333/369	140	293	14	9	24%	13%	102	+1.9	217/324/333	116	285	10	5	25%	13%	88	+0.6
●Charlie Blackmon 2017 · MLB	31	52→57	49→60	54→55	49	261/321/413	152	287	16	24	16%	6%	108	+2.3	267/334/454	187	300	21	12	18%	8%	124	+3.4	265/333/459	193	296	22	8	18%	8%	120	+3.6
✕Noah Hall 2007 · AA	30	51→55	52→55	53→50	51	259/337/440	181	293	18	16	18%	8%	122	+3.3	244/315/378	134	276	12	10	16%	7%	97	+1.5	241/311/359	118	269	10	7	14%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Pat O'Sullivan 2007 · AAA	30	54→50	54→55	50	46	277/325/460	183	313	22	15	20%	6%	122	+3.3	273/322/427	154	325	18	11	21%	6%	112	+2.6	287/338/428	141	351	17	6	22%	6%	117	+1.0
✕Ian Desmond 2017 · MLB	31	52→61	51→60	51→55	44	260/314/420	159	327	19	16	26%	7%	107	+2.2	234/295/373	139	290	16	17	24%	7%	87	+0.8	214/280/352	138	262	15	15	24%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Juan Camilo 2006 · AAA	30	50	53→55	52→55	49	249/322/419	170	324	21	17	29%	10%	111	+2.5	255/307/387	132	308	13	15	21%	7%	95	+1.4	291/330/395	104	333	7	16	14%	6%	109	+0.9