Justin Ruggiano

PosCF

B/TR/R

Born1982-04-12

Age (2027)45

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	33	AAASEA	205	.296/.385/.514	10	6	78	—	.218/.283/.351
2015	33	MLBLAD	141	.248/.333/.472	6	5	131	-0.0
2016	34	AAALas Vegas 51s	202	.229/.325/.423	7	3	42	—	.159/.235/.275
2016	34	MLBNYM	26	.333/.385/.625	2	0	187	0.3
2017	35	AAASF	169	.280/.327/.478	6	1	67	—	.219/.256/.375
2017	35	MLBSF	63	.217/.242/.333	2	1	62	-0.6
2018	36	No MLB games played
2019	37	No MLB games played
2020	38	No MLB games played
2021	39	No MLB games played
2022	40	No MLB games played
2023	41	No MLB games played
2024	42	No MLB games played
2025	43	No MLB games played
2026	44	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015-2017

xwOBA77

Barrel%73

Avg EV61

Speed20

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	23	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	185	161	55	10	1	6	17	56	6	8	3	342	424	528	952	186	490	30	9	419	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A+	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	281	242	74	15	4	9	28	66	9	16	5	306	396	512	909	207	387	23	10	399	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	476	400	112	32	6	13	65	103	7	14	9	280	390	487	877	207	345	22	14	386	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	—	15	14	3	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	214	267	214	481		333	33	7	228	40	-1	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.2
2007	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	546	482	149	29	2	20	53	151	8	26	11	309	387	502	889	193	413	28	10	391	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	81	76	15	4	0	2	4	27	1	2	0	197	247	329	576	132	277	33	5	259	61	-4	+0	+3	-4	+2	-0.2
2008	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	289	257	81	18	3	11	22	77	5	20	3	315	380	537	917	222	402	27	8	395	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	532	471	119	28	1	15	51	147	5	23	4	253	332	412	744	159	332	28	10	331	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	507	457	131	31	0	15	42	129	8	24	6	287	357	453	810	166	371	25	8	361	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	20	18	5	0	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	278	350	278	628		455	35	10	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	111	105	26	4	0	4	4	26	0	1	1	248	275	400	675	152	289	23	4	293	85	-2	-0	+3	-4	+2	0.0
2011	29	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	190	168	51	13	1	7	20	42	0	12	2	304	378	518	896	214	370	22	11	389	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	38	31	8	3	0	1	5	4	0	3	1	258	351	452	803	194	269	11	13	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	320	288	90	23	1	13	29	84	0	14	8	312	374	535	909	222	401	26	9	395	164	+24	-0	-1	+2	+7	3.2
2012	30	AAA	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	138	117	38	13	1	5	18	24	0	5	3	325	412	581	993	256	367	17	13	424	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	472	424	94	18	1	18	41	114	5	15	8	222	297	396	693	175	260	24	9	309	102	+1	-0	+2	+2	+10	1.5
2014	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	250	224	63	13	1	6	18	70	3	2	4	281	343	429	771	147	375	28	7	338	114	+4	-1	-6	-3	+5	-0.1
2014	32	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	25	21	3	1	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	143	280	190	470	48	200	24	12	237	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	141	125	31	8	1	6	14	41	2	5	2	248	333	472	805	224	321	29	10	355	131	+5	+0	-5	-4	+3	-0.0
2015	33	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	205	179	53	9	0	10	23	51	3	6	4	296	385	514	899	218	364	25	11	397	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	MLB	New York Mets	—	26	24	8	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	1	333	385	625	1.010	292	500	38	8	437	187	+3	-0	-1	+1	+1	0.3
2016	34	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	202	175	40	11	1	7	24	56	1	3	1	229	325	423	748	194	289	28	12	331	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	63	60	13	1	0	2	1	17	1	1	1	217	242	333	575	117	262	27	2	253	62	-3	-0	-2	-2	+1	-0.6
2017	35	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	169	157	44	13	0	6	9	33	2	1	2	280	327	478	805	197	319	20	5	352	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1479	1340	343	72	4	53	114	394	12	40	25	256	319	434	754	178	322	27	8	332	111	+19	-2	-6	-11	+32	3.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	23	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	185	166	50	9	1	5	12	68	6	8	3	301	370	458	827	157	463	37	6	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	281	252	64	14	3	7	19	94	9	16	5	254	329	417	745	163	370	33	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	476	422	107	31	6	11	43	126	7	14	9	254	333	434	766	180	323	26	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	—	15	14	3	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	214	267	214	481		333	33	7	228	40	-1	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.2
2007	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	546	498	135	24	2	17	37	181	8	26	11	271	331	430	761	159	387	33	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	81	76	15	4	0	2	4	27	1	2	0	197	247	329	576	132	277	33	5	259	61	-4	+0	+3	-4	+2	-0.2
2008	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	289	264	74	15	3	9	15	92	5	20	3	280	331	462	793	182	375	32	5	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	532	488	104	23	1	12	34	177	5	23	4	213	271	338	609	125	298	33	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	507	472	106	24	0	10	27	160	8	24	6	225	278	339	617	114	315	32	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	111	105	26	4	0	4	4	26	0	1	1	248	275	400	675	152	289	23	4	293	85	-2	-0	+3	-4	+2	0.0
2011	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	190	174	47	11	1	6	14	48	0	12	2	270	324	448	773	178	341	25	7	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	320	289	94	25	1	14	29	84	0	14	8	325	387	564	951	239	401	26	9	411	164	+24	-0	-1	+2	+7	3.2
2012	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	138	125	33	11	1	4	11	30	0	5	3	264	324	464	788	200	305	22	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	472	426	98	20	1	19	40	114	5	15	8	230	304	415	719	185	260	24	8	319	102	+1	-0	+2	+2	+10	1.5
2014	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	250	224	63	13	1	6	18	70	3	2	4	281	343	429	771	147	375	28	7	337	114	+4	-1	-6	-3	+5	-0.1
2014	32	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	25	22	3	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	136	240	182	422	45	158	32	8	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	141	125	31	8	1	6	14	41	2	5	2	248	333	472	805	224	321	29	10	362	131	+5	+0	-5	-4	+3	-0.0
2015	33	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	205	188	41	7	0	6	14	63	3	6	4	218	283	351	634	133	294	31	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	26	24	8	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	1	333	385	625	1.010	292	500	38	8	445	187	+3	-0	-1	+1	+1	0.3
2016	34	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	202	182	29	7	1	4	17	74	1	3	1	159	235	275	510	115	233	37	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	63	60	13	1	0	2	1	17	1	1	1	217	242	333	575	117	262	27	2	260	62	-3	-0	-2	-2	+1	-0.6
2017	35	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	169	160	35	10	0	5	6	43	2	1	2	219	256	375	631	156	261	25	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	466	418	114	23	4	12	31	162	15	24	8	273	345	433	778	160	415	35	7	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	466	403	129	25	5	15	45	122	15	24	8	320	407	519	926	199	425	26	10	407	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	476	422	107	31	6	11	43	126	7	14	9	254	333	434	766	180	333	26	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	476	400	112	32	6	13	65	103	7	14	9	280	390	487	877	207	345	22	14	386	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	561	512	138	24	2	17	38	186	8	26	11	270	330	424	754	154	390	33	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	561	496	152	29	2	20	54	156	8	26	11	306	384	494	877	188	411	28	10	387	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	370	340	89	19	3	11	19	119	6	22	3	262	312	432	745	171	363	32	5	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	370	333	96	22	3	13	26	104	6	22	3	288	351	489	840	201	376	28	7	365	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	532	488	104	23	1	12	34	177	5	23	4	213	271	338	609	125	304	33	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	532	471	119	28	1	15	51	147	5	23	4	253	332	412	744	159	332	28	10	331	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	527	491	109	24	0	11	28	166	8	25	6	222	275	338	613	116	312	31	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	527	475	136	31	0	15	44	136	8	25	6	286	357	446	803	160	373	26	8	359	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	339	313	82	17	1	11	21	83	0	16	4	262	308	428	736	166	323	24	6	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	339	304	85	20	1	12	29	72	0	16	4	280	341	470	812	191	330	21	9	353	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	458	414	126	36	2	17	40	114	0	19	11	304	366	524	890	220	381	25	9	388	149	+26	-1	-1	+2	+10	3.7
2012	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	458	405	128	36	2	18	47	108	0	19	11	316	385	548	934	232	390	24	10	404	149	+26	-1	-1	+2	+10	3.7
2013	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	472	426	98	20	1	19	40	114	5	15	8	230	304	415	719	185	270	24	8	319	102	+1	-0	+2	+2	+10	1.5
2013	31	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	472	424	94	18	1	18	41	114	5	15	8	222	297	396	693	175	260	24	9	309	102	+1	-0	+2	+2	+10	1.5
2014	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	275	246	65	13	1	6	20	78	4	2	4	264	330	398	728	134	355	28	7	321	103	+1	-1	-6	-3	+6	-0.3
2014	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	275	245	66	14	1	6	21	76	4	2	4	269	337	408	745	139	359	28	8	329	103	+1	-1	-6	-3	+6	-0.3
2015	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	346	313	73	16	1	12	28	104	5	11	6	233	306	406	712	173	310	30	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	346	304	84	17	1	16	37	92	5	11	6	276	364	497	861	220	347	27	11	380	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	228	206	37	8	1	6	19	84	1	3	2	180	252	316	568	136	263	37	8	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	228	199	48	12	1	9	26	66	1	3	2	241	332	447	779	206	310	29	11	343	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	232	220	48	11	0	7	7	60	3	2	3	218	252	364	616	145	265	26	3	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	232	217	57	14	0	8	10	50	3	2	3	263	304	438	742	175	304	22	4	325	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	466	417	114	23	4	12	31	162	15	24	8	273	345	434	779	161	407	35	7	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	476	423	107	31	6	11	43	126	7	14	9	253	333	433	765	180	323	26	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	561	510	138	24	2	17	38	186	8	26	11	271	330	425	755	155	386	33	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	370	342	89	19	3	11	19	119	6	22	3	260	312	430	742	170	353	32	5	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	532	488	104	23	1	12	34	177	5	23	4	213	271	338	609	125	298	33	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	527	486	109	24	0	11	28	166	8	25	6	224	275	342	617	117	315	31	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	339	315	82	17	1	11	21	83	0	16	4	260	308	425	734	165	322	24	6	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	458	415	126	36	2	17	40	114	0	19	11	304	366	523	889	219	372	25	9	388	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	472	424	98	20	1	19	40	114	5	15	8	231	304	417	721	186	260	24	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	275	249	65	13	1	6	20	78	4	2	4	261	330	394	723	133	355	28	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	346	310	73	16	1	12	28	104	5	11	6	235	306	410	716	174	305	30	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	228	206	37	8	1	6	19	84	1	3	2	180	252	316	568	136	263	37	8	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	232	220	48	11	0	7	7	60	3	2	3	218	252	364	616	145	261	26	3	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1479	1340	343	72	4	53	114	394	12	40	25	256	319	434	754	178	322	27	8	332	98	+19	-2	-6	-11	+32	3.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	151	32	2	23	50	173	5	18	11	256	319	435	754	178	323	27	8	332	98	+8	-1	-2	-5	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5282	4809	1190	265	23	152	368	1573	67	202	79	247	310	407	717	159	334	30	7	313	98	+19	-2	-6	-11	+32	3.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	147	33	3	19	45	194	8	25	10	248	310	410	720	162	335	30	7	313	98	+8	-1	-2	-5	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAASacramento River Cats · 169 PAwOBA .344 → .267 (−77)K% 19.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.53%	÷0.989	×1.290	—	—	25.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.33%	÷0.952	×0.710	—	×0.940	3.73%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	1.09%
Singles /BIP	20.16%	÷1.027	×0.900	×1.018	×0.940	16.91%
Doubles /BIP	10.48%	÷0.975	×0.810	×1.018	×0.940	8.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.920	×0.810	×1.018	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.84%	÷0.889	×0.780	—	×0.940	3.99%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .344 → .267; ISO .197 → .152; BABIP .319 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALas Vegas 51s · 202 PAwOBA .325 → .230 (−95)K% 27.7% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.72%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	36.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.88%	÷0.962	×0.710	—	×0.940	8.24%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.46%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷0.994	×0.900	×1.040	×0.940	15.62%
Doubles /BIP	9.24%	÷1.128	×0.810	×1.040	×0.940	6.49%
Triples /BIP	0.84%	÷0.980	×0.810	×1.040	×0.940	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.088	×0.780	—	×0.940	3.96%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 126, 3B 96, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .325 → .230; ISO .194 → .124; BABIP .289 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAATacoma Rainiers · 205 PAwOBA .385 → .284 (−101)K% 24.9% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.88%	÷1.049	×1.290	—	—	30.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.73%	÷1.046	×0.710	—	×0.942	6.86%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.980	—	×0.942	1.35%
Singles /BIP	26.56%	÷0.995	×0.900	×0.979	×0.942	22.14%
Doubles /BIP	7.03%	÷0.910	×0.810	×0.979	×0.942	5.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.979	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.81%	÷1.127	×0.780	—	×0.942	5.09%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 110, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .385 → .284; ISO .218 → .148; BABIP .364 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 25 PAwOBA .232 → .163 (−69)K% 24.0% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.00%	÷0.996	×1.290	—	—	31.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.00%	÷1.249	×0.710	—	×0.952	6.49%
HBP% /PA	4.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.952	3.73%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.021	×0.900	—	×0.952	11.19%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.111	×0.810	—	×0.952	4.63%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.929	×0.780	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .232 → .163; ISO .048 → .032; BABIP .200 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 138 PAwOBA .416 → .335 (−82)K% 17.4% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.018	×1.290	—	—	22.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.32%	÷1.079	×0.710	—	×0.972	7.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.43%	÷1.001	×0.900	×0.995	×0.972	17.77%
Doubles /BIP	13.98%	÷0.960	×0.810	×0.995	×0.972	11.41%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷1.101	×0.810	×0.995	×0.972	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	5.38%	÷1.033	×0.780	—	×0.972	3.95%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 120, K 104, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .416 → .335; ISO .256 → .205; BABIP .367 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAADurham Bulls · 190 PAwOBA .379 → .333 (−46)K% 22.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.11%	÷1.051	×1.200	—	—	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.938	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷0.969	×0.930	×1.025	×0.982	22.99%
Doubles /BIP	10.32%	÷0.994	×0.830	×1.025	×0.982	8.67%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.017	×0.970	×1.025	×0.982	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×0.982	4.77%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 110, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .379 → .333; ISO .214 → .186; BABIP .370 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAADurham Bulls · 507 PAwOBA .350 → .272 (−78)K% 25.4% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.44%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	31.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.41%
HBP% /PA	1.58%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.47%
Singles /BIP	25.91%	÷1.037	×0.930	×0.994	×0.992	22.91%
Doubles /BIP	9.45%	÷1.026	×0.830	×0.994	×0.992	7.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.994	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.57%	÷1.151	×0.840	—	×0.992	3.31%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .350 → .272; ISO .166 → .119; BABIP .371 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAADurham Bulls · 532 PAwOBA .323 → .269 (−54)K% 27.6% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.63%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	33.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.21%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.37%
HBP% /PA	0.94%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.89%
Singles /BIP	23.15%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.997	×1.003	21.53%
Doubles /BIP	8.64%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.997	×1.003	7.17%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.997	×1.003	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	4.63%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.90%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .323 → .269; ISO .159 → .131; BABIP .332 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .