Oneil Cruz

CF Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 28 L/R 6'7" / 248 lbs MLB HR -15%K -5% Svc 4.640 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	25	MLBPIT	599	.259/.326/.449	21	22	115	3.7
2025	26	MLBPIT	544	.200/.301/.378	20	38	91	1.5
2026	27	MLBPIT	419	.280/.368/.486	20	30	143	3.3
2027PROJ	28	MLBPIT	413	.247/.331/.452	20	28	124	2.3
2028PROJ	29	MLBPIT	398	.243/.327/.445	19	24	121	1.9
2029PROJ	30	MLBPIT	383	.239/.323/.436	18	20	117	1.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.640First FA2029

2027Arb-2$9M2028Arb-3$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%90

Avg EV90

Bat Spd90

xwOBA77

Speed76

Form.260/.346/.453 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .250/.331/.467

CompsJazz Chisholm Jr. (age 26) · B.J. Upton (age 28) · Preston Wilson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 103124vR 132

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .331 / .452

PA413

HR20

SB28

K%31

BB%10

BABIP323

ISO211

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

390.243

POWER60

Barrel%

9016.4

Avg EV

9095.2

Bat Spd

9079.2

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

7628.5

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%29%▲▲27% over 101 PA (60d) · proj 32%

BB%11%▲12% over 101 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.193▼.148 over 88 AB (60d) · proj .218

HR/BB7.5%▼4.9% over 61 BBE (60d) · proj 9.0%

BABIP.333▲.466 over 58 BIP (60d) · proj .324

SLASH.260/.346/.453·proj .250/.331/.467

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1260 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

315

945

—

wRC+

115

▶▶R

wOBA

279

338

▶▶R

ISO

172

199

▶R

BABIP

255

330

▶▶R

33.0%

30.7%

▶R

BB%

7.9%

9.3%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.640 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$9M	+2.6	$21M	+$13M
2028	Arb-3	$12M	+1.9	$14M	+$3M
Totals		$20M		$35M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers 1	—	211	187	55	18	5	0	22	44	0	11	5	294	367	444	811	150	382	21	10	358	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	West Virginia Power	—	438	397	94	11	2	10	36	132	0	8	7	237	300	350	650	113	323	30	8	291	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	West Virginia Power	—	443	402	115	25	7	14	34	100	3	11	5	286	346	488	834	201	346	23	8	363	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	Altoona Curve	—	136	119	32	8	3	1	15	35	0	3	1	269	351	412	763	143	365	26	11	336	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	145	136	41	6	1	7	8	38	1	7	3	301	345	515	860	213	374	26	6	377	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	79	69	13	3	0	0	9	31	1	1	2	188	291	232	523	43	342	39	11	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	50	49	12	1	2	0	1	14	0	0	0	245	260	347	607	102	343	28	2	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	29	21	11	1	0	5	8	5	0	1	0	524	655	1.286	1.941	762	545	17	28	752	279	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	273	250	73	15	5	12	20	64	1	18	3	292	346	536	882	244	349	23	7	381	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	361	331	77	13	4	17	28	126	1	10	4	233	294	450	745	218	317	35	8	326	110	+4	+0	-5	+7	+8	1.5
2022	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	247	211	49	7	3	9	30	56	4	11	6	232	339	422	761	190	270	23	12	338	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	49	40	10	1	0	2	7	13	1	4	0	250	375	425	800	175	308	27	14	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	32	8	1	0	1	7	8	0	3	0	250	385	375	760	125	292	20	18	342	120	+1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.3
2024	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	599	541	140	34	3	21	51	181	3	22	1	259	326	449	775	190	347	30	9	341	115	+11	+4	+1	+7	+13	3.7
2024	25	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	8	0	1	0	125	176	125	301		250	47	6	148	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	544	471	94	18	3	20	64	174	4	38	5	200	301	378	678	178	262	32	12	304	91	-6	+6	+1	+2	+12	1.5
2026	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	419	368	103	14	1	20	47	139	4	30	7	280	368	486	854	207	397	33	11	378	143	+22	+3	-3	+2	+9	3.3
2026	27	AA	Altoona Curve	—	18	17	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	176	222	176	399		231	22	6	190	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1963	1743	422	80	11	79	197	628	12	103	17	242	323	437	760	194	328	32	10	336	113	+31	+14	-5	+18	+43	10.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 1	—	211	194	37	11	3	0	16	54	0	11	5	191	252	278	531	88	261	26	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	438	410	81	9	2	8	23	181	0	8	7	198	240	288	528	90	315	41	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	443	415	100	22	6	9	21	135	3	11	5	241	282	388	670	147	326	30	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	136	123	30	7	3	1	11	44	0	3	1	244	306	374	680	130	350	32	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	145	139	33	5	1	5	5	54	1	7	3	237	269	396	665	158	353	37	3	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	29	24	10	1	0	4	5	6	0	1	0	417	517	958	1.476	542	452	21	17	580	279	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	273	257	66	14	4	10	14	79	1	18	3	257	298	459	757	202	326	29	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	361	332	77	12	4	18	27	126	1	10	4	232	292	455	746	223	317	35	7	331	110	+4	+0	-5	+7	+8	1.5
2022	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	247	220	44	7	3	6	21	68	4	11	6	200	282	341	623	141	254	28	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	32	8	1	0	1	7	8	0	3	0	250	385	375	760	125	292	20	18	346	120	+1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	599	546	141	33	3	23	46	181	3	22	1	258	319	456	775	198	347	30	8	339	115	+11	+4	+1	+7	+13	3.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	544	475	95	17	3	22	60	174	4	38	5	200	295	387	682	187	262	32	11	303	91	-6	+6	+1	+2	+12	1.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	419	371	104	13	1	22	44	139	4	30	7	280	363	499	861	218	397	33	11	380	143	+22	+3	-3	+2	+9	3.3
2026	27	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	18	17	3	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	176	222	176	399		217	28	6	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 1	—	211	194	37	11	3	0	16	54	0	11	5	191	252	278	531	88	262	26	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers 1	—	211	187	55	18	5	0	22	44	0	11	5	294	367	444	811	150	382	21	10	358	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	438	410	81	9	2	8	23	181	0	8	7	198	240	288	528	90	323	41	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A RAW	West Virginia Power	—	438	397	94	11	2	10	36	132	0	8	7	237	300	350	650	113	323	30	8	291	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	443	415	100	22	6	9	21	135	3	11	5	241	282	388	670	147	331	30	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A RAW	West Virginia Power	—	443	402	115	25	7	14	34	100	3	11	5	286	346	488	834	201	346	23	8	363	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	360	335	80	15	4	8	21	126	2	11	6	239	288	379	667	140	355	35	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	360	324	86	17	4	8	32	104	2	11	6	265	335	417	752	151	364	29	9	334	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL MLE	Gigantes del Cibao	—	50	49	12	1	2	0	1	14	0	0	0	245	260	347	607	102	343	28	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL RAW	Gigantes del Cibao	—	50	49	12	1	2	0	1	14	0	0	0	245	260	347	607	102	343	28	2	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	302	281	75	15	4	13	19	85	1	19	3	267	316	488	803	221	337	28	6	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	302	271	84	16	5	17	28	69	1	19	3	310	375	594	970	284	360	23	9	417	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	657	596	133	21	8	27	51	210	6	25	10	223	291	421	712	198	292	32	8	309	95	-4	+1	-5	+7	+14	1.5
2022	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	657	582	136	21	7	28	65	195	6	25	10	234	317	438	755	204	298	30	10	333	95	-4	+1	-5	+7	+14	1.5
2023	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	32	8	1	0	1	7	8	0	3	0	250	385	375	760	125	292	20	18	346	120	+1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.3
2023	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	32	8	1	0	1	7	8	0	3	0	250	385	375	760	125	292	20	18	342	120	+1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	616	562	144	33	3	23	47	186	3	23	1	256	317	448	765	192	339	30	8	339	115	+11	+4	+1	+7	+13	3.8
2024	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	616	557	142	34	3	21	52	189	3	23	1	255	322	440	762	185	345	31	8	336	115	+11	+4	+1	+7	+13	3.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	544	475	95	17	3	22	60	174	4	38	5	200	295	387	682	187	257	32	11	303	91	-6	+6	+1	+2	+12	1.5
2025	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	544	471	94	18	3	20	64	174	4	38	5	200	301	378	678	178	262	32	12	304	91	-6	+6	+1	+2	+12	1.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	437	388	107	13	1	22	45	144	4	31	7	276	357	485	842	209	383	33	10	371	137	+19	+3	-3	+2	+9	3.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	437	385	106	14	1	20	48	143	4	31	7	275	362	473	834	197	387	33	11	370	137	+19	+3	-3	+2	+9	3.1
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 1	—	211	193	37	11	3	0	16	54	0	11	5	192	252	280	532	88	261	26	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	438	412	81	9	2	8	23	181	0	8	7	197	240	286	527	90	315	41	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	443	416	100	22	6	9	21	135	3	11	5	240	282	387	669	147	326	30	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	360	334	80	15	4	8	21	126	2	11	6	240	288	380	668	141	352	35	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	302	279	75	15	4	13	19	85	1	19	3	269	316	491	807	222	338	28	6	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	657	595	133	21	8	27	51	210	6	25	10	224	291	422	713	198	292	32	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	33	8	1	0	1	7	8	0	3	0	242	385	364	748	121	292	20	18	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	616	561	144	33	3	23	47	186	3	23	1	257	317	449	766	193	347	30	8	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	544	475	95	17	3	22	60	174	4	38	5	200	295	387	682	187	262	32	11	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	437	385	107	13	1	22	45	144	4	31	7	278	357	488	845	210	390	33	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	616	561	144	33	3	23	47	186	3	23	1	257	317	449	766	193	347	30	8	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	544	475	95	17	3	22	60	174	4	38	5	200	295	387	682	187	262	32	11	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	437	385	107	13	1	22	45	144	4	31	7	278	357	488	845	210	390	33	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	494	436	109	15	2	25	51	156	4	34	7	250	334	467	801	217	324	32	10	351	124	+14	+4	-3	+2	+11	2.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	413	365	91	13	2	20	42	130	3	28	6	247	331	452	783	206	323	31	10	345	124	+12	+3	-3	+1	+9	2.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	398	351	86	12	1	20	41	127	3	24	5	247	330	460	790	213	321	32	10	347	121	+10	+3	-4	+1	+9	1.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	383	338	82	11	1	19	39	123	3	20	4	243	326	451	776	208	317	32	10	342	117	+8	+2	-5	+1	+8	1.6
2030	31	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	365	322	77	10	1	18	37	119	3	15	3	238	321	440	761	202	313	33	10	336	113	+6	+2	-5	+1	+8	1.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	342	303	71	9	1	16	34	113	2	9	2	233	315	427	741	194	309	33	10	328	108	+3	+1	-6	+1	+7	0.7
2032	33	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	303	268	62	8	1	14	30	102	2	5	2	226	307	410	717	184	302	34	10	318	101	+0	+0	-6	+1	+7	0.2
2033	34	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	250	223	50	6	1	11	24	86	1	2	1	217	297	390	687	173	294	34	10	306	93	-2	+0	-7	+1	+5	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	398	351	85	12	1	19	41	127	3	24	5	243	327	445	772	202	320	32	10	340	121	+10	+3	-4	+1	+9	1.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	383	338	82	12	1	18	39	123	3	20	4	239	323	436	758	197	316	32	10	335	117	+8	+2	-5	+1	+8	1.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	365	322	76	11	1	16	37	119	3	15	3	235	318	426	744	191	312	33	10	329	113	+6	+2	-5	+1	+8	1.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	342	303	70	10	1	15	34	113	2	9	2	229	311	413	724	184	307	33	10	321	108	+3	+1	-6	+1	+7	0.7
2032	33	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	303	268	61	8	1	13	30	102	2	5	2	223	304	397	700	174	301	34	10	312	101	+0	+0	-6	+1	+7	0.2
2033	34	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	250	223	48	6	1	10	24	86	1	2	1	214	294	377	671	163	293	34	10	300	93	-2	+0	-7	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4004	3548	844	139	17	170	402	1298	26	178	34	238	320	430	750	193	321	32	10	330	99	+56	+22	-38	+25	+87	15.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	138	23	3	28	65	211	4	29	6	240	321	436	757	196	323	32	10	330	99	+9	+4	-6	+4	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	6552	5907	1392	227	44	252	558	2117	40	283	72	236	306	417	723	181	319	32	9	315	99	+68	+25	-40	+26	+96	17.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	138	23	4	25	55	210	4	28	7	235	305	416	722	181	318	32	8	315	99	+10	+4	-6	+4	+14	2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 18 PAwOBA .185 → .158 (−27)K% 22.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	27.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.968	3.76%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.968	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.968	21.67%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.860	—	×0.968	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	—	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.968	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .185 → .158; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 247 PAwOBA .332 → .278 (−54)K% 22.7% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.67%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	27.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.15%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.30%
HBP% /PA	1.62%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.60%
Singles /BIP	19.35%	÷1.087	×0.930	×1.050	×1.048	18.22%
Doubles /BIP	4.52%	÷0.964	×0.830	×1.050	×1.048	4.28%
Triples /BIP	1.94%	÷0.942	×0.970	×1.050	×1.048	2.19%
Home runs /BIP	5.81%	÷1.013	×0.700	—	×1.048	4.21%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .332 → .278; ISO .190 → .155; BABIP .270 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAltoona Curve · 273 PAwOBA .372 → .319 (−53)K% 23.4% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.44%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	28.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.33%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.027	5.12%
HBP% /PA	0.37%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.32%
Singles /BIP	22.04%	÷1.042	×0.940	×1.025	×1.027	20.92%
Doubles /BIP	8.06%	÷0.948	×0.870	×1.025	×1.027	7.79%
Triples /BIP	2.69%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.025	×1.027	2.26%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷0.947	×0.780	—	×1.027	5.46%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .372 → .319; ISO .244 → .206; BABIP .349 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 29 PAwOBA .731 → .580 (−150)K% 17.2% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.24%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	21.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.59%	÷1.100	×0.690	—	×1.050	18.17%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.25%	÷1.011	×0.930	—	×1.050	30.18%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.986	×0.830	—	×1.050	5.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.914	×0.920	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	31.25%	÷1.096	×0.700	—	×1.050	20.96%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .731 → .580; ISO .762 → .570; BABIP .545 → .452. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Bradenton Marauders · 145 PAwOBA .364 → .291 (−73)K% 26.2% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.21%	÷1.005	×1.420	—	—	37.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.83%	÷0.999	×0.750	—	×1.027	3.72%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	0.66%
Singles /BIP	27.55%	÷0.993	×0.920	—	×1.027	26.22%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.005	×0.960	—	×1.027	6.01%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷0.915	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.069	×0.880	—	×1.027	6.04%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 83, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .364 → .291; ISO .213 → .162; BABIP .374 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAltoona Curve · 136 PAwOBA .330 → .291 (−39)K% 25.7% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.74%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	32.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.29%	÷0.958	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷1.009	×0.970	—	×1.050	24.04%
Doubles /BIP	9.52%	÷1.038	×0.860	—	×1.050	8.29%
Triples /BIP	3.57%	÷1.150	×0.950	—	×1.050	3.10%
Home runs /BIP	1.19%	÷0.783	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.25%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 92, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .330 → .291; ISO .143 → .124; BABIP .365 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AWest Virginia Power · 443 PAwOBA .355 → .292 (−63)K% 22.6% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.57%	÷0.996	×1.340	—	—	30.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.22%	÷1.038	×0.660	—	×1.030	4.73%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	0.54%
Singles /BIP	22.85%	÷1.004	×0.920	×1.033	×1.030	22.27%
Doubles /BIP	8.28%	÷0.951	×0.820	×1.033	×1.030	7.59%
Triples /BIP	2.32%	÷1.080	×0.940	×1.033	×1.030	2.15%
Home runs /BIP	4.64%	÷1.181	×0.820	—	×1.030	3.32%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 116, K 99, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .355 → .292; ISO .201 → .155; BABIP .346 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AWest Virginia Power · 438 PAwOBA .286 → .231 (−55)K% 30.1% → 41.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.14%	÷0.975	×1.340	—	—	41.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.99%	÷1.040	×0.660	—	×1.045	5.30%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.79%	÷1.014	×0.920	×1.050	×1.045	26.67%
Doubles /BIP	4.15%	÷0.995	×0.820	×1.050	×1.045	3.75%
Triples /BIP	0.75%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.050	×1.045	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	3.77%	÷0.979	×0.820	—	×1.045	3.30%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .286 → .231; ISO .113 → .088; BABIP .323 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1AJ Pollocklast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,106 PA	6.2	4,106	143	118	273	328	464	-4	+9	23.1	22.9
/162	664	23	19	-0.6	+1.4	3.7	pk7: 23
#2Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	6.6	4,377	196	203	241	319	441	+8	-4	22.4	20.3
/162	664	30	31	+1.2	-0.7	3.4	pk7: 18
#3Jose Cruz'97-'08 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,448 PA	8.2	5,448	204	113	237*	325*	431*	-24	-5	18.2	16.5
/162	664	25	14	-2.9	-0.6	2.2	pk7: 15
#4Preston Wilson'98-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,436 PA	6.7	4,436	189	124	253*	314*	451*	+4	-34	13.9	14.6
/162	664	28	19	+0.6	-5.0	2.1	pk7: 15
#5Adolfo Phillips'64-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,173 PA	3.3	2,173	59	82	247*	349*	449*	+7	+10	12.2	12.3
/162	664	18	25	+2.0	+3.0	3.7	pk7: 12
#6Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Oneil Cruz (OGILVIE)	28	45	60	60	50	248/331/463	215	324	21	28	32%	10%	124	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2024 · MLB	26	49→50	60	58→60	44	257/317/477	219	320	29	28	29%	8%	121	+2.9	246/316/437	191	304	25	34	27%	9%	112	+2.2	238/315/421	183	295	25	40	27%	9%	108	+1.8
✕B.J. Upton 2013 · MLB	28	46→56	56→60	57→60	48	241/309/438	197	292	24	30	26%	9%	109	+2.0	217/286/363	146	291	17	21	30%	9%	83	+0.1	225/287/370	145	297	17	25	29%	8%	85	+0.2
★Preston Wilson 2001 · MLB	27	51→52	59→60	54→55	46	262/328/476	214	325	27	28	28%	8%	125	+3.2	263/328/476	213	308	27	21	23%	8%	125	+3.2	264/331/484	220	301	28	18	22%	8%	129	+3.3
●Carlos Gómez 2014 · MLB	28	52→58	56→60	65	43	268/318/470	203	319	23	38	24%	6%	120	+2.8	265/327/443	178	324	19	28	23%	7%	116	+2.5	255/321/419	164	317	18	26	24%	7%	109	+1.8
●Trevor Story 2021 · MLB	28	53→54	59→65	55	48	273/337/495	222	331	26	24	26%	8%	132	+3.7	238/306/427	189	296	22	21	26%	8%	105	+1.7	225/294/407	182	280	21	22	27%	8%	97	+0.8
★Alfonso Soriano 2004 · MLB	28	54→56	61→70	56→60	42	287/325/511	224	314	29	30	19%	4%	132	+3.7	275/318/505	230	299	30	24	19%	5%	128	+3.4	275/321/533	257	298	34	27	20%	5%	137	+4.6
★Carlos Beltrán 2005 · MLB	28	52→60	62→65	65→60	59	274/357/515	241	280	28	33	15%	11%	143	+4.5	266/345/493	227	278	27	21	16%	11%	135	+3.8	270/357/520	250	276	31	20	16%	12%	146	+5.1
●José Cruz Jr. 2002 · MLB	28	48→50	62→65	56→50	50	259/318/495	236	282	30	22	21%	8%	126	+3.2	248/327/441	193	281	22	12	20%	11%	116	+2.5	241/342/424	183	275	21	6	20%	13%	118	+2.5
●Carlos González 2014 · MLB	28	54→60	58→65	56→55	49	277/338/489	212	325	26	23	23%	8%	131	+3.6	259/311/469	210	300	27	9	23%	7%	117	+2.6	260/317/451	191	299	24	2	21%	7%	117	+2.5
✕Keon Broxton 2018 · MLB	28	48→52	53→55	60	44	230/306/408	177	343	20	33	36%	9%	101	+1.4	198/269/339	141	335	17	29	42%	8%	72	-0.7	157/231/263	106	293	14	30	48%	8%	39	-1.6
●Matt Kemp 2012 · MLB	27	55→65	60→65	55	47	287/342/507	220	337	28	26	24%	7%	137	+4.0	286/340/490	204	350	25	16	24%	7%	132	+3.6	271/318/480	210	318	26	7	23%	6%	123	+3.2
★Cliff Floyd 2001 · MLB	28	54→58	58→65	56→55	54	283/358/497	214	306	26	25	17%	9%	140	+4.2	289/358/523	234	312	27	16	17%	8%	146	+4.7	289/361/527	238	310	28	13	16%	9%	149	+4.5
●Mike Cameron 2003 · MLB	30	49→53	55→60	58→55	54	249/341/444	196	305	22	27	25%	11%	122	+2.9	247/332/450	203	300	23	21	25%	10%	120	+2.8	248/335/455	208	302	23	20	25%	10%	123	+3.0
●Jacoby Ellsbury 2012 · MLB	28	58→68	54→55	59→65	51	296/350/481	186	311	20	35	13%	7%	133	+3.7	279/331/426	147	308	15	33	14%	7%	114	+2.3	268/325/387	119	306	10	38	15%	7%	103	+1.5
●Raul Mondesi 2001 · MLB	30	49→52	63→60	55	50	267/327/504	237	276	31	25	18%	8%	131	+3.6	251/325/457	206	271	25	22	18%	9%	119	+2.7	248/324/450	202	266	25	21	17%	9%	118	+2.8
●Kyle Tucker 2024 · MLB	27	50→53	60→65	56→55	56	266/338/492	225	271	28	23	15%	10%	132	+3.6	262/355/475	213	274	26	20	15%	12%	134	+3.8	253/357/451	198	268	24	18	16%	13%	131	+3.1
✕Austin Slater 2022 · MLB	29	49→59	55	56→55	50	251/336/439	187	318	23	22	27%	10%	119	+2.7	255/343/401	146	341	16	17	27%	11%	113	+2.3	250/347/369	119	345	12	14	28%	11%	108	+0.8
★Randy Arozarena 2023 · MLB	28	53→59	54→55	52→55	46	264/333/453	189	331	20	24	26%	8%	121	+2.9	245/341/424	179	305	21	21	25%	10%	118	+2.6	247/350/436	189	305	22	23	25%	10%	125	+3.5
●Ian Kinsler 2010 · MLB	28	52→62	57→60	58→55	56	270/341/479	209	273	24	26	12%	9%	130	+3.5	259/343/438	179	267	20	22	12%	10%	121	+2.9	289/336/450	161	312	17	11	13%	6%	122	+3.4
✕Cedric Mullins 2023 · MLB	28	52→55	51→55	56→60	49	263/324/430	167	299	18	27	19%	7%	112	+2.2	235/304/402	167	272	19	27	21%	8%	99	+1.2	222/297/392	170	255	20	30	22%	9%	95	+0.8

Oneil Cruz

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps