Matt Kemp

PosCF

B/TR/R

Born1984-09-23

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2020

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	33	MLBLAD	506	.290/.343/.481	21	0	129	1.8
2019	34	AAANYM	36	.235/.278/.324	1	0	29	—	.200/.222/.286
2019	34	MLBCIN	62	.200/.213/.283	1	0	32	-0.6
2020	35	MLBCOL	132	.239/.326/.419	6	1	99	0.2
2021	36	No MLB games played
2022	37	No MLB games played
2023	38	No MLB games played
2024	39	No MLB games played
2025	40	No MLB games played
2026	41	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2020

xwOBA75

Barrel%60

Avg EV43

Speed16

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	20	A+	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	453	417	128	20	4	27	25	92	5	23	6	307	353	568	922	261	333	20	6	395	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	166	154	39	7	1	7	9	53	0	6	0	253	294	448	743	195	330	32	5	320	100	+0	+1	-9	+2	+4	-0.2
2006	21	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	202	182	67	14	6	3	17	26	2	14	3	368	428	560	988	192	418	13	8	431	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	224	199	65	15	2	7	20	38	5	11	2	327	402	528	929	201	377	17	9	410	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	311	292	100	12	5	10	16	66	0	10	5	342	377	521	897	178	411	21	5	391	151	+19	+0	-8	-5	+7	1.2
2007	22	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	174	161	53	16	3	4	10	26	2	9	2	329	376	540	916	211	371	15	6	398	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	657	606	176	38	5	18	46	153	1	35	11	290	342	459	800	168	361	23	7	352	120	+16	+3	-3	+2	+14	3.2
2009	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	667	606	180	25	7	26	52	139	3	34	8	297	356	490	846	193	345	21	8	369	132	+25	+4	+5	+2	+14	5.2
2010	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	668	602	150	25	6	28	53	170	4	19	15	249	314	450	764	201	295	25	8	333	112	+10	-2	-23	+2	+14	0.1
2011	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	689	602	195	33	4	39	74	159	6	40	11	324	403	586	990	262	380	23	11	426	161	+50	+4	-2	+2	+15	7.0
2012	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	449	403	122	22	2	23	40	103	3	9	4	303	370	538	908	236	354	23	9	395	148	+26	+0	-1	+2	+10	3.7
2012	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	16	16	8	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	500	500	1.000	1.500	500	500	12	0	647	200	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	16	14	6	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	429	500	500	1.000	71	600	25	12	450	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	290	263	71	15	0	6	22	76	2	9	0	270	331	395	726	125	353	26	8	323	104	+1	+2	-2	+1	+6	0.8
2013	28	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	19	18	0	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	1		53		53			37	5	37	-97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	599	541	155	38	3	25	52	145	0	8	5	287	349	506	856	220	345	24	9	371	140	+28	-0	-17	-6	+13	1.7
2015	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	648	596	158	31	3	23	39	147	5	12	2	265	316	443	759	178	311	23	6	331	113	+10	+2	-18	-7	+14	0.0
2016	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	672	623	167	39	0	35	36	156	1	1	0	268	309	499	808	231	297	23	5	347	120	+16	+0	-26	-7	+15	-0.3
2017	32	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	467	438	121	23	1	19	27	99	0	0	2	276	318	463	781	187	318	21	6	343	113	+7	-1	-17	-5	+10	-0.6
2018	33	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	506	462	134	25	0	21	36	115	1	0	0	290	343	481	823	190	339	23	7	358	129	+18	+0	-5	-5	+11	1.8
2019	34	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	62	60	12	2	0	1	1	19	0	0	0	200	213	283	496	83	268	31	2	218	32	-5	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.6
2019	34	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	36	34	8	0	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	235	278	324	601	88	269	19	6	273	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	35	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	132	117	28	3	0	6	15	41	0	1	0	239	326	419	745	179	314	31	11	333	99	-0	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6983	6365	1808	338	37	287	518	1641	26	184	63	284	340	484	824	200	337	23	7	359	129	+243	+12	-130	-24	+151	25.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	20	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	453	424	112	18	3	23	18	130	5	23	6	264	302	483	786	219	316	29	4	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	166	155	39	7	1	7	8	53	0	6	0	252	288	445	734	194	330	32	5	316	100	+0	+1	-9	+2	+4	-0.2
2006	21	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	202	186	62	12	5	2	13	34	2	14	3	333	383	484	867	151	401	17	6	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	224	208	64	15	2	6	11	46	5	11	2	308	357	486	843	178	366	21	5	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	311	292	100	12	5	10	16	66	0	10	5	342	377	521	897	178	411	21	5	391	151	+19	+0	-8	-5	+7	1.2
2007	22	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	174	164	44	13	2	3	7	34	2	9	2	268	306	427	733	159	322	20	4	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	657	612	176	38	5	18	40	153	1	35	11	288	332	454	787	167	361	23	6	346	120	+16	+3	-3	+2	+14	3.2
2009	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	667	612	180	25	7	26	46	139	3	34	8	294	346	485	832	191	345	21	7	363	132	+25	+4	+5	+2	+14	5.2
2010	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	668	606	152	26	7	27	49	170	4	19	15	251	311	450	762	200	295	25	7	334	112	+10	-2	-23	+2	+14	0.1
2011	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	689	626	197	35	5	37	50	159	6	40	11	315	371	564	935	249	380	23	7	406	161	+50	+4	-2	+2	+15	7.0
2012	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	449	411	123	23	2	22	32	103	3	9	4	299	354	526	880	226	354	23	7	387	148	+26	+0	-1	+2	+10	3.7
2012	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	16	16	5	1	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	312	312	562	875	250	390	19	0	464	200	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	16	15	5	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	333	375	400	775	67	511	31	6	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	290	266	73	16	0	6	19	76	2	9	0	274	328	402	730	128	353	26	7	322	104	+1	+2	-2	+1	+6	0.8
2013	28	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	19	18	0	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	1		53		53			47	5	25	-97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	599	544	158	40	4	24	49	145	0	8	5	290	349	511	860	221	345	24	8	374	140	+28	-0	-17	-6	+13	1.7
2015	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	648	596	160	33	3	22	39	147	5	12	2	268	319	445	763	176	311	23	6	335	113	+10	+2	-18	-7	+14	0.0
2016	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	672	629	168	37	0	38	30	156	1	1	0	267	302	507	809	240	297	23	4	345	120	+16	+0	-26	-7	+15	-0.3
2017	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	467	444	121	23	1	19	22	99	0	0	2	273	307	457	764	185	318	21	5	335	113	+7	-1	-17	-5	+10	-0.6
2018	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	506	464	135	26	0	20	34	115	1	0	0	291	341	476	817	185	339	23	7	359	129	+18	+0	-5	-5	+11	1.8
2019	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	62	60	12	2	0	1	1	19	0	0	0	200	213	283	496	83	268	31	2	215	32	-5	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.6
2019	34	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	36	35	7	0	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	200	222	286	508	86	224	22	3	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	35	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	132	118	26	3	0	5	14	41	0	1	0	220	303	373	676	153	314	31	11	314	99	-0	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.2
2005	20	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	453	424	112	18	3	23	18	130	5	23	6	264	302	483	786	219	322	29	4	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	A+ RAW	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	453	417	128	20	4	27	25	92	5	23	6	307	353	568	922	261	333	20	6	395	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	592	549	165	34	8	15	32	133	7	31	5	301	347	474	821	173	371	22	5	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	592	535	171	36	9	17	46	117	7	31	5	320	381	516	897	196	381	20	8	392	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	485	456	144	25	7	13	23	100	2	19	7	316	351	487	838	171	378	21	5	366	134	+20	+1	-8	-5	+11	1.8
2007	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	485	453	153	28	8	14	26	92	2	19	7	338	376	528	904	190	396	19	5	393	134	+20	+1	-8	-5	+11	1.8
2008	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	657	612	176	38	5	18	40	153	1	35	11	288	332	454	787	167	356	23	6	346	120	+16	+3	-3	+2	+14	3.2
2008	23	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	657	606	176	38	5	18	46	153	1	35	11	290	342	459	800	168	361	23	7	352	120	+16	+3	-3	+2	+14	3.2
2009	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	667	612	180	25	7	26	46	139	3	34	8	294	346	485	832	191	340	21	7	363	132	+25	+4	+5	+2	+14	5.2
2009	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	667	606	180	25	7	26	52	139	3	34	8	297	356	490	846	193	345	21	8	369	132	+25	+4	+5	+2	+14	5.2
2010	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	668	606	152	26	7	27	49	170	4	19	15	251	311	450	762	200	299	25	7	334	112	+10	-2	-23	+2	+14	0.1
2010	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	668	602	150	25	6	28	53	170	4	19	15	249	314	450	764	201	295	25	8	333	112	+10	-2	-23	+2	+14	0.1
2011	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	689	626	197	35	5	37	50	159	6	40	11	315	371	564	935	249	366	23	7	406	161	+50	+4	-2	+2	+15	7.0
2011	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	689	602	195	33	4	39	74	159	6	40	11	324	403	586	990	262	380	23	11	426	161	+50	+4	-2	+2	+15	7.0
2012	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	481	442	134	25	2	24	33	111	3	9	4	303	356	532	887	229	355	23	7	388	149	+28	+0	-1	+2	+10	4.0
2012	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	481	433	136	25	2	25	42	109	3	9	4	314	379	554	933	240	368	23	9	405	149	+28	+0	-1	+2	+10	4.0
2013	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	309	284	73	16	0	6	20	85	2	9	1	257	310	377	687	120	342	28	6	304	92	-3	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.4
2013	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	309	281	71	15	0	6	23	83	2	9	1	253	314	370	684	117	333	27	7	306	92	-3	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.4
2014	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	599	544	158	40	4	24	49	145	0	8	5	290	349	511	860	221	352	24	8	374	140	+28	-0	-17	-6	+13	1.7
2014	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	599	541	155	38	3	25	52	145	0	8	5	287	349	506	856	220	345	24	9	371	140	+28	-0	-17	-6	+13	1.7
2015	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	648	596	160	33	3	22	39	147	5	12	2	268	319	445	763	176	317	23	6	335	113	+10	+2	-18	-7	+14	0.0
2015	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	648	596	158	31	3	23	39	147	5	12	2	265	316	443	759	178	311	23	6	331	113	+10	+2	-18	-7	+14	0.0
2016	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	672	629	168	37	0	38	30	156	1	1	0	267	302	507	809	240	291	23	4	345	120	+16	+0	-26	-7	+15	-0.3
2016	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	672	623	167	39	0	35	36	156	1	1	0	268	309	499	808	231	297	23	5	347	120	+16	+0	-26	-7	+15	-0.3
2017	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	467	444	121	23	1	19	22	99	0	0	2	273	307	457	764	185	312	21	5	335	113	+7	-1	-17	-5	+10	-0.6
2017	32	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	467	438	121	23	1	19	27	99	0	0	2	276	318	463	781	187	318	21	6	343	113	+7	-1	-17	-5	+10	-0.6
2018	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	506	464	135	26	0	20	34	115	1	0	0	291	341	476	817	185	342	23	7	359	129	+18	+0	-5	-5	+11	1.8
2018	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	506	462	134	25	0	21	36	115	1	0	0	290	343	481	823	190	339	23	7	358	129	+18	+0	-5	-5	+11	1.8
2019	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	98	95	19	2	0	2	2	27	0	0	0	200	216	284	501	84	254	28	2	213	31	-8	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.9
2019	34	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	98	94	20	2	0	2	3	26	0	0	0	213	237	298	535	85	269	27	3	238	31	-8	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.9
2020	35	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	132	118	26	3	0	5	14	41	0	1	0	220	303	373	676	153	292	31	11	314	99	-0	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.2
2020	35	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	132	117	28	3	0	6	15	41	0	1	0	239	326	419	745	179	314	31	11	333	99	-0	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.2
2005	20	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	453	427	112	18	3	23	18	130	5	23	6	262	302	480	782	218	316	29	4	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	592	548	165	34	8	15	32	133	7	31	5	301	347	474	821	173	368	22	5	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	485	457	144	25	7	13	23	100	2	19	7	315	351	486	837	171	379	21	5	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	657	611	176	38	5	18	40	153	1	35	11	288	332	455	787	167	361	23	6	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	667	613	180	25	7	26	46	139	3	34	8	294	346	485	831	191	345	21	7	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	668	610	152	26	7	27	49	170	4	19	15	249	311	448	759	198	295	25	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	689	628	197	35	5	37	50	159	6	40	11	314	371	562	933	248	380	23	7	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	481	442	134	25	2	24	33	111	3	9	4	303	356	532	887	229	360	23	7	388	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	309	284	73	16	0	6	20	85	2	9	1	257	310	377	687	120	332	28	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	599	545	158	40	4	24	49	145	0	8	5	290	349	510	859	220	345	24	8	374	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	648	599	160	33	3	22	39	147	5	12	2	267	319	442	761	175	311	23	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	672	636	168	37	0	38	30	156	1	1	0	264	302	502	803	237	297	23	4	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	467	442	121	23	1	19	22	99	0	0	2	274	307	459	766	186	318	21	5	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	506	466	135	26	0	20	34	115	1	0	0	290	341	474	815	185	339	23	7	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	98	96	19	2	0	2	2	27	0	0	0	198	216	281	498	83	252	28	2	213	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	35	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	132	117	26	3	0	5	14	41	0	1	0	222	303	376	679	154	314	31	11	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6983	6365	1808	338	37	287	518	1641	26	184	63	284	340	484	824	200	337	23	7	359	125	+243	+12	-130	-24	+151	25.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	168	31	3	27	48	153	2	17	6	284	339	483	822	199	337	24	7	359	125	+23	+1	-12	-2	+14	2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	8123	7501	2120	406	52	319	501	1910	40	241	77	283	331	478	809	196	337	24	6	353	125	+243	+12	-130	-24	+151	25.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	169	32	4	26	40	153	3	19	6	282	329	478	808	197	335	24	6	353	125	+23	+1	-12	-2	+14	2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAASyracuse Mets · 36 PAwOBA .265 → .211 (−54)K% 19.4% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.44%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	22.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷0.966	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.73%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷1.042	×0.930	—	×0.940	21.76%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.060	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×0.940	3.05%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 108, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 104, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .265 → .211; ISO .088 → .071; BABIP .269 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 19 PAwOBA .036 → .025 (−11)K% 36.8% → 48.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.84%	÷1.018	×1.340	—	—	48.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷0.971	×0.710	—	×0.940	3.62%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.038	×0.820	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.027	×0.760	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.980	×0.920	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 108, 3B 105, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .036 → .025; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 16 PAwOBA .626 → .464 (−162)K% 12.5% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.935	×1.290	—	—	17.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.962	×0.710	—	×0.992	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.034	×0.900	—	×0.992	24.66%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.135	×0.810	—	×0.992	10.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.055	×0.810	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.29%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×0.992	10.86%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 107, 2B 127, 3B 111, K 87, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .626 → .464; ISO .500 → .353; BABIP .500 → .390. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 16 PAwOBA .422 → .347 (−76)K% 25.0% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.985	×1.340	—	—	34.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.038	×0.710	—	×0.948	4.05%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	50.00%	÷1.007	×0.910	—	×0.948	42.83%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.941	×0.820	—	×0.948	8.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.760	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.086	×0.920	—	×0.948	0.00%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 99, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .422 → .347; ISO .071 → .058; BABIP .600 → .511. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAALas Vegas 51s · 174 PAwOBA .390 → .322 (−68)K% 14.9% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.94%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	19.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.75%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.28%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.18%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.900	×0.959	×1.050	20.15%
Doubles /BIP	11.85%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.959	×1.050	9.67%
Triples /BIP	2.22%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.959	×1.050	1.81%
Home runs /BIP	2.96%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.43%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .390 → .322; ISO .211 → .167; BABIP .371 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAJacksonville Suns · 224 PAwOBA .394 → .362 (−32)K% 17.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.96%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.042	5.06%
HBP% /PA	2.23%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	1.95%
Singles /BIP	25.47%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.025	×1.042	25.01%
Doubles /BIP	9.32%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.025	×1.042	9.05%
Triples /BIP	1.24%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.025	×1.042	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	3.62%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .394 → .362; ISO .201 → .181; BABIP .377 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAALas Vegas 51s · 202 PAwOBA .420 → .379 (−41)K% 12.9% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.87%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.42%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.27%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.02%
Singles /BIP	28.21%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.050	×1.050	27.99%
Doubles /BIP	8.97%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.050	8.01%
Triples /BIP	3.85%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.050	3.43%
Home runs /BIP	1.92%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.58%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .420 → .379; ISO .192 → .166; BABIP .418 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2005 A+Vero Beach Dodgers · 453 PAwOBA .387 → .332 (−55)K% 20.3% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.31%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	28.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.08%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.027	3.91%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	1.05%
Singles /BIP	23.69%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.008	×1.027	22.57%
Doubles /BIP	6.15%	÷1.000	×0.960	×1.008	×1.027	6.12%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.008	×1.027	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	8.31%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.027	7.51%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .387 → .332; ISO .261 → .221; BABIP .333 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).