Trevor Story

SS Boston Red Sox

Age 34 R/R 6'1" / 209 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

Overview

MLB40-MANFA 2027

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	31	MLBBOS	106	.255/.340/.394	2	6	95	0.5
2025	32	MLBBOS	654	.263/.308/.433	25	31	103	2.6
2026	33	AAABOS	37	.171/.194/.200	0	0	-18	—	.143/.167/.171
2026	33	MLBBOS	266	.235/.273/.351	5	5	66	-0.1
2027PROJ	34	MLBBOS	256	.242/.284/.382	7	8	81	0.1
2028PROJ	35	MLBBOS	197	.231/.271/.359	5	4	71	-0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2026Service11.000First FA2027Options1

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV59

Speed58

Barrel%51

Bat Spd48

xwOBA34

Form.231/.268/.373 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .235/.275/.372

CompsMark Little (age 34) · Kristopher Negrón (age 33) · Hernán Pérez (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8281vR 75

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .284 / .382

PA256

HR7

SB8

K%29

BB%5

BABIP316

ISO138

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

280.233

POWER

Barrel%

518.3

Avg EV

5989.7

Bat Spd

4871.2

SPEED

Sprint

5827.8

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%31%▼▼32% over 90 PA (60d) · proj 29%

BB%4%▼3% over 90 PA (60d) · proj 5%

ISO.142·.151 over 86 AB (60d) · proj .137

HR/BB4.1%·3.5% over 57 BBE (60d) · proj 4.4%

BABIP.312▲.418 over 55 BIP (60d) · proj .305

SLASH.231/.268/.373·proj .235/.275/.372

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 879 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

223

656

—

wRC+

101

▶R

wOBA

297

317

▶R

ISO

149

159

▶R

BABIP

310

333

▶R

27.8%

28.0%

—

BB%

4.9%

5.5%

▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Options · projected decision
2027	PLAYER OPT	$25.0M / $5.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	18	ROK	Casper Ghosts	—	210	179	48	8	2	6	26	41	2	13	1	268	367	436	803	168	313	20	12	355	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	548	477	132	43	6	18	60	121	9	15	3	277	368	505	873	229	335	22	11	383	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	554	497	116	34	5	12	45	183	7	22	1	233	306	394	700	161	343	33	8	311	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	237	205	41	8	1	9	28	82	2	3	1	200	302	380	683	180	281	35	12	306	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	218	184	61	17	7	5	31	59	3	20	4	332	436	582	1.017	250	467	27	14	442	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	97	86	22	9	1	1	11	26	0	3	1	256	340	419	759	163	356	27	11	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	275	256	71	20	4	10	16	68	2	7	1	277	325	504	829	227	341	25	6	360	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	301	256	73	20	6	10	36	73	5	15	2	285	384	527	911	242	356	24	12	394	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	415	372	101	21	4	27	35	130	5	8	5	272	342	567	909	296	343	31	8	390	132	+16	-0	+6	+4	+9	3.6
2017	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	555	503	120	32	3	24	49	191	2	7	2	239	309	457	766	219	332	34	9	336	99	-1	+1	+9	+6	+12	2.7
2018	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	656	598	174	42	6	37	47	168	7	27	6	291	350	567	917	276	345	26	7	395	136	+28	+3	-2	+7	+14	5.1
2019	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	656	588	173	38	5	35	58	174	7	23	8	294	364	554	919	260	361	27	9	398	141	+32	+1	+17	+7	+14	7.3
2020	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	259	235	68	13	4	11	24	63	0	15	3	289	355	519	874	230	354	24	9	382	128	+9	+2	+1	+3	+6	2.1
2021	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	595	526	132	34	5	24	53	139	11	20	6	251	332	471	804	221	293	23	9	352	110	+7	+2	-1	+6	+13	2.7
2022	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	396	357	85	22	0	16	32	122	3	13	0	238	306	434	740	196	309	31	8	325	96	-2	+3	+8	+1	+9	1.9
2023	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	168	158	32	9	0	3	9	55	1	10	3	203	250	316	566	114	290	33	5	255	53	-9	+1	+7	+2	+4	0.4
2023	30	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	38	32	10	4	0	3	5	8	1	1	0	312	421	719	1.140	406	333	21	13	482	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	106	94	24	7	0	2	11	33	1	6	3	255	340	394	733	138	373	31	10	331	95	-1	+0	+2	+1	+2	0.5
2024	31	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	16	16	6	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	375	375	438	812	62	429	12	0	363	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	654	612	161	29	0	25	33	176	7	31	1	263	308	433	741	170	330	27	5	328	103	+2	+6	-4	+7	+14	2.6
2026	33	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	266	251	59	14	0	5	11	86	2	5	0	235	273	351	623	116	333	32	4	277	66	-11	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
2026	33	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	37	35	6	1	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	171	194	200	394	29	240	30	3	176	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4726	4294	1129	261	27	209	362	1337	46	165	37	263	327	482	809	219	332	28	8	354	126	+144	+18	+44	+49	+102	36.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	18	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	210	189	37	6	1	4	16	59	2	13	1	196	266	302	567	106	249	28	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	548	498	104	30	5	12	39	172	9	15	3	209	278	361	640	153	287	31	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	554	510	87	22	3	12	32	247	7	22	1	171	230	296	526	125	287	45	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	237	213	35	6	1	8	20	100	2	3	1	164	243	315	557	150	246	42	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	218	192	44	11	4	4	23	81	3	20	4	229	321	391	712	161	375	37	11	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	275	262	54	14	3	7	10	91	2	7	1	206	241	363	603	156	283	33	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	301	266	62	16	6	7	26	92	5	15	2	233	313	417	730	184	316	31	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	415	374	94	20	3	24	33	130	5	8	5	251	320	513	834	262	343	31	8	363	132	+16	-0	+6	+4	+9	3.6
2017	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	555	507	113	31	2	21	45	191	2	7	2	223	289	416	705	193	332	34	8	314	99	-1	+1	+9	+6	+12	2.7
2018	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	656	601	164	41	4	33	44	168	7	27	6	273	330	519	849	246	345	26	7	369	136	+28	+3	-2	+7	+14	5.1
2019	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	656	588	163	37	3	31	58	174	7	23	8	277	349	509	858	231	361	27	9	377	141	+32	+1	+17	+7	+14	7.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	259	236	65	13	3	10	23	63	0	15	3	275	340	483	823	208	354	24	9	357	128	+9	+2	+1	+3	+6	2.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	595	528	124	33	3	21	51	139	11	20	6	235	315	428	743	193	293	23	9	331	110	+7	+2	-1	+6	+13	2.7
2022	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	396	361	82	20	0	16	28	122	3	13	0	227	288	416	704	188	309	31	7	310	96	-2	+3	+8	+1	+9	1.9
2023	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	168	158	31	8	0	3	9	55	1	10	3	196	244	304	548	108	290	33	5	247	53	-9	+1	+7	+2	+4	0.4
2023	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	38	34	7	2	0	2	3	9	1	1	0	206	289	441	731	235	233	24	8	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	106	96	23	6	0	2	9	33	1	6	3	240	311	365	676	125	373	31	8	308	95	-1	+0	+2	+1	+2	0.5
2024	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	16	16	5	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	312	312	375	688	62	365	12	0	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	613	157	26	0	26	32	176	7	31	1	256	301	426	726	170	330	27	5	320	103	+2	+6	-4	+7	+14	2.6
2026	33	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	266	252	56	12	0	5	10	86	2	5	0	222	258	329	587	107	333	32	4	266	66	-11	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
2026	33	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	37	35	5	1	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	143	167	171	338	29	206	35	3	142	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	210	189	37	6	1	4	16	59	2	13	1	196	266	302	567	106	258	28	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK RAW	Casper Ghosts	—	210	179	48	8	2	6	26	41	2	13	1	268	367	436	803	168	313	20	12	355	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	548	498	104	30	5	12	39	172	9	15	3	209	278	361	640	153	291	31	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	548	477	132	43	6	18	60	121	9	15	3	277	368	505	873	229	335	22	11	383	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	554	510	87	22	3	12	32	247	7	22	1	171	230	296	526	125	298	45	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	554	497	116	34	5	12	45	183	7	22	1	233	306	394	700	161	343	33	8	311	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	552	494	96	21	6	15	51	220	5	26	6	194	276	352	629	158	313	40	9	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	552	475	124	34	9	15	70	167	5	26	6	261	362	465	827	204	372	30	13	365	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	576	527	116	30	9	14	37	183	7	22	3	220	280	391	671	171	304	32	6	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	576	512	144	40	10	20	52	141	7	22	3	281	356	516	871	234	348	24	9	378	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	415	374	94	20	3	24	33	130	5	8	5	251	320	513	834	262	317	31	8	363	132	+16	-0	+6	+4	+9	3.6
2016	23	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	415	372	101	21	4	27	35	130	5	8	5	272	342	567	909	296	343	31	8	390	132	+16	-0	+6	+4	+9	3.6
2017	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	555	507	113	31	2	21	45	191	2	7	2	223	289	416	705	193	311	34	8	314	99	-1	+1	+9	+6	+12	2.7
2017	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	555	503	120	32	3	24	49	191	2	7	2	239	309	457	766	219	332	34	9	336	99	-1	+1	+9	+6	+12	2.7
2018	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	656	601	164	41	4	33	44	168	7	27	6	273	330	519	849	246	324	26	7	369	136	+28	+3	-2	+7	+14	5.1
2018	25	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	656	598	174	42	6	37	47	168	7	27	6	291	350	567	917	276	345	26	7	395	136	+28	+3	-2	+7	+14	5.1
2019	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	656	588	163	37	3	31	58	174	7	23	8	277	349	509	858	231	342	27	9	377	141	+32	+1	+17	+7	+14	7.3
2019	26	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	656	588	173	38	5	35	58	174	7	23	8	294	364	554	919	260	361	27	9	398	141	+32	+1	+17	+7	+14	7.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	259	236	65	13	3	10	23	63	0	15	3	275	340	483	823	208	337	24	9	357	128	+9	+2	+1	+3	+6	2.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	259	235	68	13	4	11	24	63	0	15	3	289	355	519	874	230	354	24	9	382	128	+9	+2	+1	+3	+6	2.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	595	528	124	33	3	21	51	139	11	20	6	235	315	428	743	193	276	23	9	331	110	+7	+2	-1	+6	+13	2.7
2021	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	595	526	132	34	5	24	53	139	11	20	6	251	332	471	804	221	293	23	9	352	110	+7	+2	-1	+6	+13	2.7
2022	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	396	361	82	20	0	16	28	122	3	13	0	227	288	416	704	188	291	31	7	310	96	-2	+3	+8	+1	+9	1.9
2022	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	396	357	85	22	0	16	32	122	3	13	0	238	306	434	740	196	309	31	8	325	96	-2	+3	+8	+1	+9	1.9
2023	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	206	192	37	10	0	5	12	64	2	11	3	193	248	323	570	130	260	31	6	262	64	-9	+1	+7	+2	+4	0.6
2023	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	206	190	42	13	0	6	14	63	2	11	3	221	282	384	666	163	298	31	7	297	64	-9	+1	+7	+2	+4	0.6
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	122	112	28	7	0	2	9	35	1	7	3	250	311	366	678	116	347	29	7	306	93	-1	+0	+2	+1	+3	0.5
2024	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	122	110	30	8	0	2	11	35	1	7	3	273	344	400	744	127	384	29	9	336	93	-1	+0	+2	+1	+3	0.5
2025	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	613	157	26	0	26	32	176	7	31	1	256	301	426	726	170	318	27	5	320	103	+2	+6	-4	+7	+14	2.6
2025	32	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	654	612	161	29	0	25	33	176	7	31	1	263	308	433	741	170	330	27	5	328	103	+2	+6	-4	+7	+14	2.6
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	303	287	62	13	0	5	11	99	2	5	0	216	250	314	564	98	306	33	4	251	56	-16	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.6
2026	33	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	303	286	65	15	0	5	12	97	2	5	0	227	263	332	596	105	321	32	4	265	56	-16	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.6
2011	18	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	210	190	37	6	1	4	16	59	2	13	1	195	266	300	566	105	249	28	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	548	495	104	30	5	12	39	172	9	15	3	210	278	364	642	154	287	31	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	554	510	87	22	3	12	32	247	7	22	1	171	230	296	526	125	287	45	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	552	491	96	21	6	15	51	220	5	26	6	196	276	354	631	159	308	40	9	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	576	527	116	30	9	14	37	183	7	22	3	220	280	391	671	171	300	32	6	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	415	374	94	20	3	24	33	130	5	8	5	251	320	513	834	262	343	31	8	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	555	503	113	31	2	21	45	191	2	7	2	225	289	419	708	195	332	34	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	656	600	164	41	4	33	44	168	7	27	6	273	330	520	850	247	345	26	7	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	656	586	163	37	3	31	58	174	7	23	8	278	349	510	859	232	361	27	9	377	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	259	234	65	13	3	10	23	63	0	15	3	278	340	487	827	209	354	24	9	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	595	528	124	33	3	21	51	139	11	20	6	235	315	428	743	193	293	23	9	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	396	362	82	20	0	16	28	122	3	13	0	227	288	414	703	188	309	31	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	206	190	37	10	0	5	12	64	2	11	3	195	248	326	574	132	279	31	6	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	122	111	28	7	0	2	9	35	1	7	3	252	311	369	681	117	372	29	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	610	157	26	0	26	32	176	7	31	1	257	301	428	728	170	330	27	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	303	287	62	13	0	5	11	99	2	5	0	216	250	314	564	98	318	33	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	122	111	28	7	0	2	9	35	1	7	3	252	311	369	681	117	372	29	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	610	157	26	0	26	32	176	7	31	1	257	301	428	728	170	330	27	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	303	287	62	13	0	5	11	99	2	5	0	216	250	314	564	98	318	33	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	367	344	80	15	0	10	17	106	3	12	3	235	277	372	649	137	305	29	5	288	81	-8	+1	-3	+4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	256	240	58	12	0	7	12	74	2	8	2	242	284	382	665	140	316	29	5	294	81	-6	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	197	184	41	7	0	5	9	58	2	4	1	225	265	350	615	125	296	29	5	273	71	-7	+0	-7	+2	+4	-0.7
2028	35	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	197	184	43	8	0	5	9	58	2	4	1	231	271	359	630	127	306	29	5	280	71	-7	+0	-7	+2	+4	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4923	4478	1172	269	27	214	371	1395	48	169	38	262	325	477	802	215	331	28	8	351	95	+137	+19	+37	+51	+107	35.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	155	36	4	28	49	184	6	22	5	262	325	479	804	217	332	28	8	351	95	+18	+2	+5	+7	+14	4.7
Career	—	MLE		—	7710	7041	1626	377	42	263	542	2374	81	277	54	231	293	408	702	178	307	31	7	309	95	+131	+19	+35	+54	+112	35.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	138	32	4	22	46	200	7	23	5	232	296	411	706	178	309	31	7	309	95	+16	+2	+4	+7	+14	4.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 37 PAwOBA .176 → .142 (−34)K% 29.7% → 35.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.73%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	35.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.70%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	1.75%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.940	18.21%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.940	3.25%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .176 → .142; ISO .029 → .022; BABIP .240 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 16 PAwOBA .353 → .291 (−61)K% 12.5% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	14.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×0.952	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	35.71%	÷1.036	×0.930	—	×0.952	30.52%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.951	×0.830	—	×0.952	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.143	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .353 → .291; ISO .062 → .050; BABIP .429 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 38 PAwOBA .469 → .330 (−139)K% 21.1% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	24.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.16%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.86%
HBP% /PA	2.63%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	2.38%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.996	×0.930	—	×0.962	11.23%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.309	×0.830	—	×0.962	10.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.905	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.50%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×0.962	8.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .469 → .330; ISO .406 → .268; BABIP .333 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 301 PAwOBA .386 → .319 (−67)K% 24.3% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.25%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	30.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.30%	÷0.935	×0.700	—	×1.027	8.68%
HBP% /PA	1.66%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	1.45%
Singles /BIP	20.22%	÷1.024	×0.970	×0.950	×1.027	18.68%
Doubles /BIP	10.93%	÷1.016	×0.860	×0.950	×1.027	9.03%
Triples /BIP	3.28%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×1.027	3.38%
Home runs /BIP	5.46%	÷1.133	×0.780	—	×1.027	3.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 95, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .386 → .319; ISO .242 → .191; BABIP .356 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 275 PAwOBA .350 → .259 (−92)K% 24.7% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.73%	÷0.960	×1.290	—	—	33.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.45%	÷1.056	×0.710	—	×1.050	3.85%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.75%
Singles /BIP	19.68%	÷1.010	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	17.50%
Doubles /BIP	10.64%	÷1.075	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	8.00%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷0.933	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	1.84%
Home runs /BIP	5.32%	÷1.105	×0.780	—	×1.050	3.94%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 102, 2B 115, 3B 87, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .350 → .259; ISO .227 → .157; BABIP .341 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AATulsa Drillers · 237 PAwOBA .298 → .239 (−59)K% 34.6% → 42.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.60%	÷0.998	×1.220	—	—	42.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.81%	÷1.038	×0.700	—	×1.042	8.30%
HBP% /PA	0.84%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	0.77%
Singles /BIP	18.70%	÷0.995	×0.920	×0.950	×1.042	17.12%
Doubles /BIP	6.50%	÷1.087	×0.840	×0.950	×1.042	4.98%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷0.901	×0.940	×0.950	×1.042	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	7.32%	÷0.894	×0.800	—	×1.042	6.82%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 117, 3B 80, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .298 → .239; ISO .180 → .153; BABIP .281 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Modesto Nuts · 218 PAwOBA .429 → .314 (−115)K% 27.1% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.06%	÷0.977	×1.340	—	—	37.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.76%	÷0.947	×0.710	—	×1.012	10.44%
HBP% /PA	1.38%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.10%
Singles /BIP	25.60%	÷1.004	×0.910	×0.951	×1.012	22.32%
Doubles /BIP	13.60%	÷1.047	×0.820	×0.951	×1.012	10.25%
Triples /BIP	5.60%	÷1.150	×0.760	×0.951	×1.012	3.56%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.019	×0.920	—	×1.012	3.65%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .429 → .314; ISO .250 → .172; BABIP .467 → .375. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Modesto Nuts · 554 PAwOBA .303 → .226 (−77)K% 33.0% → 44.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.03%	÷0.994	×1.340	—	—	44.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.12%	÷1.037	×0.710	—	×1.027	5.71%
HBP% /PA	1.26%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	1.03%
Singles /BIP	20.70%	÷0.994	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	18.49%
Doubles /BIP	10.83%	÷1.080	×0.820	×0.950	×1.027	8.02%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷1.150	×0.760	×0.950	×1.027	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	3.82%	÷0.831	×0.920	—	×1.027	4.34%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 66, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .303 → .226; ISO .161 → .126; BABIP .343 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Phillipslast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 7,896 PA	11.9	7,896	210	209	276	320	422	+28	+83	41.6	36.8
/162	664	18	18	+2.4	+7.0	3.5	pk7: 32
#2Doug DeCinces'73-'87 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,534 PA	9.8	6,534	237	58	255*	329*	470*	+20	+32	38.7	34.4
/162	664	24	6	+2.0	+3.2	3.9	pk7: 30
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	7.8	5,179	221	177	262	320	475	+54	+72	34.8	33.3
/162	664	28	23	+6.9	+9.2	4.5	pk7: 32
#3John Valentin'92-'02 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,511 PA	6.8	4,511	124	47	267*	344*	445*	+31	+38	27.5	27.1
/162	664	18	7	+4.6	+5.6	4.0	pk7: 27
#4Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	7.4	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
/162	664	29	10	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
#5Tim Andersonlast yr '25 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,139 PA	6.2	4,139	98	122	276	307	407	+44	+48	21.6	22.0
/162	664	16	20	+7.0	+7.7	3.5	pk7: 22
#6Kelly Gruber'84-'93 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,442 PA	5.2	3,442	117	80	258*	307*	460*	+9	+45	17.8	18.5
/162	664	23	15	+1.8	+8.6	3.4	pk7: 19

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Trevor Story (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	233/275/369	136	305	7	8	29%	5%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mark Little 2006 · MLB	34	42	51→55	52→55	40	219/289/380	161	284	19	19	30%	6%	89	+0.5	226/308/346	120	311	11	15	29%	7%	88	+0.5	221/318/307	86	323	4	13	29%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Kristopher Negrón 2019 · MLB	33	44→49	45	54→55	39	217/273/341	124	302	13	16	32%	6%	73	-0.6	227/287/352	125	328	14	14	33%	7%	81	-0.1	227/288/343	116	327	14	14	33%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Hernán Pérez 2024 · MLB	33	45→55	45→50	54→55	42	226/273/344	118	287	13	21	26%	6%	73	-0.6	206/254/330	124	263	14	13	27%	6%	63	-1.3	165/208/277	113	202	13	9	26%	5%	32	-1.8
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2019 · MLB	32	46→50	46→45	56→60	45	228/288/361	133	290	14	23	26%	7%	83	+0.1	198/263/321	123	283	14	16	33%	7%	65	-1.2	148/216/240	92	221	11	15	37%	6%	28	-2.4
✕Charlie Culberson 2023 · MLB	34	49→54	45	47→50	43	240/287/367	127	300	12	13	24%	6%	84	+0.1	222/270/335	113	309	12	12	30%	6%	70	-0.8	164/189/198	34	266	4	14	39%	3%	8	-1.0
✕Cody Ransom 2010 · MLB	34	39	51→55	49→50	45	208/273/373	166	259	19	11	28%	8%	81	-0.1	215/278/388	173	280	21	8	30%	7%	86	+0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Ryan LaMarre 2023 · MLB	34	48→52	45	51→60	44	231/309/356	124	315	12	21	29%	7%	91	+0.6	217/290/341	124	310	13	19	32%	7%	80	-0.2	141/221/232	91	216	10	33	38%	7%	26	-0.7
✕John Hicks 2023 · MLB	33	40→50	53→55	49→50	35	216/253/385	169	288	21	13	33%	4%	76	-0.4	204/256/330	126	288	13	17	32%	6%	64	-1.3	155/214/229	73	228	6	27	33%	6%	25	-1.4
✕Drew Maggi 2022 · AAA	33	41→51	46→45	49→60	41	205/283/331	126	293	14	14	33%	7%	75	-0.5	184/251/269	85	261	7	20	31%	6%	49	-2.4	156/223/217	61	220	4	22	29%	6%	24	-1.4
✕Mike Coolbaugh 2006 · AAA	34	41→39	52→55	53→50	41	218/266/379	160	262	21	10	26%	6%	79	-0.2	211/277/349	138	265	16	9	26%	7%	77	-0.3	171/258/278	106	213	13	4	26%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Brandon Barnes 2019 · MLB	33	44→53	43→55	50	38	214/265/330	115	302	11	16	32%	5%	67	-1.1	213/263/378	165	288	21	13	33%	5%	78	-0.3	191/237/377	187	240	27	11	34%	5%	66	-1.0
✕James McCann 2024 · MLB	34	44→54	46→50	47→45	42	222/278/352	130	283	14	7	27%	6%	77	-0.3	237/285/389	152	294	19	5	26%	5%	88	+0.5	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
✕Reggie Abercrombie 2013 · AAA	32	46→49	51→55	50→60	33	229/288/386	157	328	19	24	35%	4%	90	+0.6	229/281/386	157	323	19	20	34%	4%	86	+0.3	218/258/360	141	306	19	22	34%	3%	71	-0.3
✕Michael A. Taylor 2024 · MLB	33	46→54	52→55	51→60	43	238/296/400	161	303	22	14	29%	7%	95	+1.0	212/271/361	149	296	17	17	33%	7%	77	-0.3	191/251/321	130	276	14	19	34%	7%	61	-0.8
✕Jantzen Witte 2024 · AAA	34	42→52	47→45	44→45	42	217/269/353	136	280	15	8	28%	6%	74	-0.5	214/273/354	140	279	16	8	28%	7%	76	-0.4	187/251/323	136	227	18	0	26%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Eddy Alvarez 2024 · MLB	34	48→54	46→50	55	46	235/317/370	136	311	13	20	27%	8%	97	+1.1	202/279/335	133	265	14	20	28%	7%	75	-0.5	177/258/306	129	228	15	22	29%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Lorenzo Quintana 2022 · AAA	33	49	47→50	48→45	40	243/288/379	136	300	15	6	24%	4%	87	+0.4	221/272/366	145	275	16	6	25%	5%	78	-0.3	184/233/337	154	215	20	0	26%	4%	55	-0.9
✕Tim Torres 2017 · AAA	33	51→49	44→45	55	45	246/304/370	124	320	11	20	26%	7%	91	+0.6	242/309/370	128	322	13	18	27%	9%	93	+0.8	238/321/351	114	321	12	20	28%	11%	96	+0.3
✕Benji Gil 2007 · AAA	34	52→56	48→50	45→50	40	260/300/394	134	322	17	14	25%	5%	95	+0.9	257/299/377	120	321	10	13	22%	5%	90	+0.6	264/308/382	118	329	7	11	21%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Adonis García 2019 · MLB	34	51→54	48→50	49→50	44	254/296/393	138	277	16	9	16%	4%	93	+0.8	214/271/329	115	258	13	14	22%	6%	70	-0.9	181/235/262	81	221	9	16	22%	4%	39	-1.3

Trevor Story

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps