Todd Frazier

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1986-02-12

Age (2027)41

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	33	A+NYM	43	.216/.326/.297	1	0	25	—	.154/.233/.231
2019	33	MLBNYM	499	.251/.329/.443	21	1	122	2.7
2020	34	MLBNYM	172	.236/.302/.382	4	1	100	0.3
2021	35	MLBPIT	40	.086/.200/.114	0	0	-2	-0.5
2022	36	No MLB games played
2023	37	No MLB games played
2024	38	No MLB games played
2025	39	No MLB games played
2026	40	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2021

xwOBA47

Barrel%38

Avg EV37

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2007	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	24	22	7	3	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	318	375	727	1.102	409	312	17	8	467	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	186	160	51	6	5	5	18	22	7	3	3	319	411	512	923	194	343	12	10	406	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	414	366	103	20	3	12	41	84	4	8	4	281	360	451	811	169	333	20	10	359	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	127	112	36	10	0	7	15	28	0	4	2	321	402	598	1.000	277	377	22	12	434	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	69	63	19	5	0	2	6	12	0	2	0	302	362	476	839	175	347	17	9	371	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA	Carolina Mudcats	—	500	451	131	40	2	14	42	67	2	7	8	290	354	481	835	191	312	13	8	365	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	538	480	124	32	4	17	45	127	10	14	4	258	335	448	782	190	317	24	8	346	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	121	112	26	5	0	6	7	27	2	1	0	232	289	438	727	205	253	22	6	321	98	-0	+0	+3	+2	+3	0.7
2011	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	359	315	82	18	1	15	34	82	6	17	4	260	344	467	810	206	302	23	9	355	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	465	422	115	26	6	19	36	103	3	3	2	273	334	498	832	225	316	22	8	361	124	+13	-0	-4	+2	+10	2.2
2012	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	41	39	9	2	0	1	2	11	0	3	0	231	268	359	627	128	296	27	5	280	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	600	531	124	29	3	19	50	125	14	6	5	234	316	407	723	173	269	21	8	321	99	-1	-1	+10	+2	+13	2.4
2014	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	660	597	163	22	1	29	52	139	7	20	8	273	338	459	797	186	309	21	8	352	117	+13	+1	+1	+2	+14	3.2
2015	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	678	619	158	43	1	35	44	137	7	13	8	255	312	498	810	242	271	20	6	350	115	+12	-1	+8	+2	+15	3.7
2016	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	666	590	133	21	0	40	64	163	4	15	5	225	305	464	770	239	236	24	10	335	110	+8	+1	+4	+2	+14	3.0
2017	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	576	474	101	19	1	27	83	125	14	4	3	213	347	428	775	215	226	22	14	346	115	+10	-0	+7	+2	+12	3.2
2018	32	MLB	New York Mets	—	472	408	87	18	0	18	48	112	8	9	4	213	308	390	698	176	241	24	10	310	98	-1	+0	+5	+2	+10	1.6
2019	33	MLB	New York Mets	—	499	447	112	19	2	21	40	106	12	1	2	251	329	443	772	192	284	21	8	343	122	+13	-1	+1	+2	+11	2.7
2019	33	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	43	37	8	0	0	1	6	8	0	0	1	216	326	297	623	81	250	19	14	293	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	34	MLB	New York Mets	—	172	157	37	9	1	4	11	42	4	1	1	236	302	382	684	146	297	24	6	308	100	-0	-0	-2	+1	+4	0.3
2021	35	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	35	3	1	0	0	3	6	2	0	0	86	200	114	314	29	103	15	8	166	-2	-5	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4949	4392	1059	212	15	218	438	1085	77	73	38	241	321	445	766	204	269	22	9	337	114	+84	-1	+33	+18	+107	24.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2007	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	24	23	6	2	0	2	1	5	0	0	0	261	292	609	900	348	268	21	4	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	186	167	38	4	3	4	11	32	7	3	3	228	303	359	662	132	257	17	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	414	378	85	17	2	10	29	119	4	8	4	225	287	360	647	135	296	29	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	127	117	29	8	0	5	10	38	0	4	2	248	307	444	752	197	326	30	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	69	65	17	4	0	2	4	14	0	2	0	262	304	415	720	154	310	20	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	500	464	118	36	2	12	28	82	2	7	8	254	299	418	717	164	277	16	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	538	495	108	30	3	13	30	160	10	14	4	218	277	370	646	152	291	30	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	121	112	26	5	0	6	7	27	2	1	0	232	289	438	727	205	253	22	6	312	98	-0	+0	+3	+2	+3	0.7
2011	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	359	328	75	16	1	14	21	102	6	17	4	229	287	412	699	183	273	28	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	465	423	114	26	6	18	35	103	3	3	2	270	330	487	817	217	316	22	8	352	124	+13	-0	-4	+2	+10	2.2
2012	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	41	40	8	2	0	1	1	14	0	3	0	200	220	325	545	125	262	34	2	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	600	532	124	30	3	18	49	125	14	6	5	233	314	402	717	169	269	21	8	314	99	-1	-1	+10	+2	+13	2.4
2014	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	660	599	160	22	1	27	50	139	7	20	8	267	331	442	773	175	309	21	8	341	117	+13	+1	+1	+2	+14	3.2
2015	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	678	622	156	44	1	32	41	137	7	13	8	251	304	479	784	228	271	20	6	338	115	+12	-1	+8	+2	+15	3.7
2016	30	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	666	591	132	21	0	39	63	163	4	15	5	223	302	457	759	234	236	24	9	331	110	+8	+1	+4	+2	+14	3.0
2017	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	576	476	99	19	1	25	81	125	14	4	3	208	340	410	749	202	226	22	14	338	115	+10	-0	+7	+2	+12	3.2
2018	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	472	409	89	19	0	18	47	112	8	9	4	218	310	396	706	178	241	24	10	314	98	-1	+0	+5	+2	+10	1.6
2019	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	499	448	115	20	2	21	39	106	12	1	2	257	333	451	784	194	284	21	8	349	122	+13	-1	+1	+2	+11	2.7
2019	33	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	43	39	6	0	0	1	4	12	0	0	1	154	233	231	463	77	204	28	9	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	172	157	39	10	1	4	11	42	4	1	1	248	314	401	715	153	297	24	6	315	100	-0	-0	-2	+1	+4	0.3
2021	35	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	35	3	1	0	0	3	6	2	0	0	86	200	114	314	29	103	15	8	165	-2	-5	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.5
2007	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	210	190	44	7	3	5	12	37	7	3	3	232	301	379	680	147	262	18	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	210	182	58	9	5	7	20	26	7	3	3	319	407	538	945	220	340	12	10	413	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	541	495	114	25	2	15	39	157	4	12	6	230	292	380	672	149	304	29	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	541	478	139	30	3	19	56	112	4	12	6	291	370	485	855	195	343	21	10	376	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	569	529	134	40	2	13	33	96	2	9	8	253	300	410	710	157	285	17	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	569	514	150	45	2	16	48	79	2	9	8	292	355	481	835	189	316	14	8	366	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	538	495	108	30	3	13	30	160	10	14	4	218	277	370	646	152	293	30	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	538	480	124	32	4	17	45	127	10	14	4	258	335	448	782	190	317	24	8	346	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	480	440	100	21	1	19	28	129	8	18	4	227	286	409	695	182	274	27	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	480	427	108	23	1	21	41	109	8	18	4	253	330	459	789	206	289	23	9	347	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	506	463	121	28	6	18	36	117	3	6	2	261	319	464	783	203	310	23	7	341	117	+10	+0	-4	+2	+11	2.0
2012	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	506	461	124	28	6	20	38	114	3	6	2	269	329	486	815	217	314	23	8	354	117	+10	+0	-4	+2	+11	2.0
2013	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	600	532	124	30	3	18	49	125	14	6	5	233	314	402	717	169	270	21	8	314	99	-1	-1	+10	+2	+13	2.4
2013	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	600	531	124	29	3	19	50	125	14	6	5	234	316	407	723	173	269	21	8	321	99	-1	-1	+10	+2	+13	2.4
2014	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	660	599	160	22	1	27	50	139	7	20	8	267	331	442	773	175	304	21	8	341	117	+13	+1	+1	+2	+14	3.2
2014	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	660	597	163	22	1	29	52	139	7	20	8	273	338	459	797	186	309	21	8	352	117	+13	+1	+1	+2	+14	3.2
2015	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	678	622	156	44	1	32	41	137	7	13	8	251	304	479	784	228	270	20	6	338	115	+12	-1	+8	+2	+15	3.7
2015	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	678	619	158	43	1	35	44	137	7	13	8	255	312	498	810	242	271	20	6	350	115	+12	-1	+8	+2	+15	3.7
2016	30	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	666	591	132	21	0	39	63	163	4	15	5	223	302	457	759	234	235	24	9	331	110	+8	+1	+4	+2	+14	3.0
2016	30	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	666	590	133	21	0	40	64	163	4	15	5	225	305	464	770	239	236	24	10	335	110	+8	+1	+4	+2	+14	3.0
2017	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	576	476	99	19	1	25	81	125	14	4	3	208	340	410	749	202	224	22	14	338	115	+10	-0	+7	+2	+12	3.2
2017	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	576	474	101	19	1	27	83	125	14	4	3	213	347	428	775	215	226	22	14	346	115	+10	-0	+7	+2	+12	3.2
2018	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	472	409	89	19	0	18	47	112	8	9	4	218	310	396	706	178	247	24	10	314	98	-1	+0	+5	+2	+10	1.6
2018	32	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	472	408	87	18	0	18	48	112	8	9	4	213	308	390	698	176	241	24	10	310	98	-1	+0	+5	+2	+10	1.6
2019	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	542	487	121	20	2	22	43	118	12	1	3	248	325	433	758	185	285	22	8	337	114	+9	-1	+1	+2	+12	2.4
2019	33	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	542	484	120	19	2	22	46	114	12	1	3	248	328	432	760	184	282	21	8	339	114	+9	-1	+1	+2	+12	2.4
2020	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	172	157	39	10	1	4	11	42	4	1	1	248	314	401	715	153	315	24	6	315	100	-0	-0	-2	+1	+4	0.3
2020	34	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	172	157	37	9	1	4	11	42	4	1	1	236	302	382	684	146	297	24	6	308	100	-0	-0	-2	+1	+4	0.3
2021	35	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	35	3	1	0	0	3	6	2	0	0	86	200	114	314	29	103	15	8	165	-2	-5	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.5
2021	35	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	35	3	1	0	0	3	6	2	0	0	86	200	114	314	29	103	15	8	166	-2	-5	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.5
2007	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	210	189	44	7	3	5	12	37	7	3	3	233	301	381	682	148	258	18	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	541	493	114	25	2	15	39	157	4	12	6	231	292	381	673	150	303	29	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	569	529	134	40	2	13	33	96	2	9	8	253	300	410	710	157	281	17	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	538	493	108	30	3	13	30	160	10	14	4	219	277	371	648	152	291	30	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	480	441	100	21	1	19	28	129	8	18	4	227	286	408	694	181	268	27	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	506	462	121	28	6	18	36	117	3	6	2	262	319	465	784	203	311	23	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	600	532	124	30	3	18	49	125	14	6	5	233	314	402	717	169	269	21	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	660	598	160	22	1	27	50	139	7	20	8	268	331	443	774	176	309	21	8	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	678	625	156	44	1	32	41	137	7	13	8	250	304	477	781	227	271	20	6	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	666	594	132	21	0	39	63	163	4	15	5	222	302	455	757	232	236	24	9	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	576	476	99	19	1	25	81	125	14	4	3	208	340	410	749	202	226	22	14	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	472	414	89	19	0	18	47	112	8	9	4	215	310	391	702	176	241	24	10	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	542	482	121	20	2	22	43	118	12	1	3	251	325	438	762	187	278	22	8	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	172	155	39	10	1	4	11	42	4	1	1	252	314	406	720	155	297	24	6	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	35	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	40	35	3	1	0	0	3	6	2	0	0	86	200	114	314	29	103	15	8	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4949	4392	1059	212	15	218	438	1085	77	73	38	241	321	445	766	204	269	22	9	337	102	+84	-1	+33	+18	+107	24.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	140	28	2	29	58	143	10	10	5	243	323	449	772	206	271	22	9	337	102	+11	-0	+4	+2	+14	3.2
Career	—	MLE		—	7250	6520	1544	337	26	268	566	1663	106	131	64	237	308	420	728	183	275	23	8	320	102	+84	-1	+33	+18	+107	24.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	138	30	2	24	51	149	10	12	6	236	309	417	726	181	273	23	8	320	102	+11	-0	+4	+2	+14	3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 A+St. Lucie Mets · 43 PAwOBA .277 → .205 (−72)K% 18.6% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.60%	÷0.917	×1.420	—	—	28.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.63%	÷0.975	×0.750	—	×0.940	8.41%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷1.048	×0.920	—	×0.940	19.93%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.978	×0.960	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.062	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.45%	÷1.122	×0.880	—	×0.940	2.54%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 112, K 83, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .277 → .205; ISO .081 → .056; BABIP .250 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAALouisville Bats · 41 PAwOBA .272 → .214 (−58)K% 26.8% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.83%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	33.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.88%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.018	3.31%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.046	×0.930	—	×1.018	19.40%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.002	×0.830	—	×1.018	6.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷1.087	×0.840	—	×1.018	2.81%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 109, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .272 → .214; ISO .128 → .096; BABIP .296 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAALouisville Bats · 359 PAwOBA .347 → .299 (−48)K% 22.8% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.84%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	28.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.64%	÷1.070	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.75%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.62%
Singles /BIP	20.60%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.989	×1.033	18.95%
Doubles /BIP	7.73%	÷0.972	×0.830	×0.989	×1.033	6.74%
Triples /BIP	0.43%	÷0.924	×0.970	×0.989	×1.033	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	6.44%	÷0.944	×0.840	—	×1.033	5.92%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 85, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .347 → .299; ISO .206 → .186; BABIP .302 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAALouisville Bats · 538 PAwOBA .334 → .285 (−49)K% 23.6% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.61%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	29.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.25%	÷0.942	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.56%
HBP% /PA	1.86%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.83%
Singles /BIP	20.11%	÷1.018	×0.930	×0.957	×1.048	18.43%
Doubles /BIP	9.07%	÷0.858	×0.830	×0.957	×1.048	8.80%
Triples /BIP	1.13%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.957	×1.048	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	4.82%	÷1.093	×0.840	—	×1.048	3.88%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 104, 2B 72, 3B 130, K 90, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .334 → .285; ISO .190 → .157; BABIP .317 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AACarolina Mudcats · 500 PAwOBA .358 → .307 (−51)K% 13.4% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.40%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	16.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.20%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.027	5.73%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.35%
Singles /BIP	19.53%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	17.53%
Doubles /BIP	10.42%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	9.25%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.950	×1.027	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	3.65%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .358 → .307; ISO .191 → .165; BABIP .312 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAALouisville Bats · 69 PAwOBA .361 → .307 (−54)K% 17.4% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.30%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	21.83%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	8.12%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.92%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.46%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .307; ISO .175 → .148; BABIP .347 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 A+Sarasota Reds · 414 PAwOBA .350 → .286 (−63)K% 20.3% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.29%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	28.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.18%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.012	6.97%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.91%
Singles /BIP	24.11%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.955	×1.012	21.44%
Doubles /BIP	7.09%	÷1.000	×0.960	×0.955	×1.012	6.58%
Triples /BIP	1.06%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.955	×1.012	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	4.26%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	3.79%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .350 → .286; ISO .169 → .140; BABIP .333 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 ADayton Dragons · 127 PAwOBA .422 → .327 (−95)K% 22.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.05%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	29.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.81%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	8.15%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.993	—	20.65%
Doubles /BIP	11.90%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.993	—	9.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.993	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	6.67%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .422 → .327; ISO .277 → .209; BABIP .377 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).