Kyle Tucker

RF Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 30 L/R 6'3" / 212 lbs MLB HR +8%BB -8% Svc 7.459 · Ctrl thru 2026

Overview

MLB40-MANFA 2027

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBHOU	339	.289/.407/.585	23	11	170	3.6
2025	28	MLBCHC	597	.266/.378/.464	22	25	132	3.1
2026	29	MLBLAD	627	.233/.333/.385	17	12	109	1.4
2027PROJ	30	MLBLAD	476	.251/.351/.435	17	11	124	2.2
2028PROJ	31	MLBLAD	558	.245/.345/.423	19	8	120	1.9
2029PROJ	32	MLBLAD	543	.238/.338/.407	18	4	113	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2026Service7.459First FA2027

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA90

Barrel%59

Avg EV58

Bat Spd52

Speed33

Form.271/.370/.485 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .254/.352/.439

CompsJosh Reddick (age 30) · Bobby Higginson (age 31) · LaMonte Wade Jr. (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 116124vR 126

AVG/OBP/SLG.251 / .351 / .435

PA476

HR17

SB11

K%16

BB%13

BABIP269

ISO183

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

680.265

POWER

Barrel%

599.5

Avg EV

5889.7

Bat Spd

5271.6

SPEED

Sprint

3326.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%12%▲▲10% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 16%

BB%13%▲14% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 13%

ISO.214▲.267 over 90 AB (60d) · proj .185

HR/BB6.0%▲7.4% over 81 BBE (60d) · proj 4.9%

BABIP.272▼.227 over 75 BIP (60d) · proj .276

SLASH.271/.370/.485▲▲proj .254/.352/.439

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1047 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

342

705

—

wRC+

131

149

▶R

wOBA

362

388

▶R

ISO

193

236

▶▶R

BABIP

281

283

—

17.0%

15.5%

▶R

BB%

13.5%

14.2%

▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.459 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	254	232	57	12	2	3	16	29	1	18	4	246	297	353	651	108	266	11	6	287	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	69	59	20	6	2	3	10	6	0	1	3	339	435	661	1.096	322	340	9	14	468	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	428	373	103	19	5	6	40	75	6	31	9	276	356	402	758	126	322	18	9	335	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	318	287	76	21	1	16	22	64	5	8	4	265	327	512	839	247	286	20	7	363	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	Buies Creek Astros	—	206	177	51	12	4	9	24	45	3	13	5	288	382	554	936	266	336	22	12	403	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	95	84	18	6	1	0	9	22	2	2	0	214	305	310	615	95	290	23	9	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB	Houston Astros	—	72	64	9	2	1	0	6	13	2	1	1	141	236	203	439	62	176	18	8	212	28	-6	-0	-1	-6	+2	-1.1
2018	21	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	465	407	135	27	3	24	48	84	2	20	4	332	404	590	994	258	364	18	10	425	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	72	67	18	6	0	4	4	20	1	5	0	269	319	537	857	269	326	28	6	372	129	+3	+1	+0	-7	+2	-0.1
2019	22	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	536	463	123	26	3	34	60	116	6	30	5	266	356	555	911	289	280	22	11	391	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	228	209	56	12	6	9	18	46	0	8	1	268	326	512	838	244	303	20	8	362	125	+7	+1	+2	-2	+5	1.3
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	567	506	149	37	3	30	53	90	1	14	2	294	361	557	919	263	304	16	9	395	148	+32	+2	-2	-6	+12	3.9
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	609	544	140	28	1	30	59	95	1	25	4	257	329	478	807	221	261	16	10	353	122	+16	+3	+4	-7	+13	3.0
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	674	574	163	37	5	29	80	92	3	30	5	284	370	517	888	233	289	14	12	382	137	+29	+4	-7	-7	+15	3.5
2024	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	339	277	80	13	0	23	56	54	1	11	0	289	407	585	991	296	282	16	17	425	170	+28	+2	+1	-4	+7	3.6
2025	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	597	500	133	25	4	22	87	88	4	25	3	266	378	464	842	198	282	15	15	372	132	+23	+4	-2	-6	+13	3.1
2026	29	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	627	540	126	23	4	17	78	105	3	12	0	233	333	385	719	152	257	17	12	322	109	+6	+2	-2	-7	+14	1.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3785	3281	874	183	24	164	441	603	16	131	16	266	354	487	841	220	279	16	12	367	135	+156	+20	-7	-51	+82	20.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	254	239	46	9	1	2	9	41	1	18	4	192	225	264	488	71	216	16	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	69	62	18	5	2	2	7	8	0	1	3	290	362	532	895	242	317	12	10	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	428	389	91	14	5	5	24	104	6	31	9	234	289	334	623	100	285	24	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	318	296	66	18	1	13	14	80	5	8	4	223	270	422	692	199	256	25	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Buies Creek Astros	—	206	186	42	9	3	8	15	67	3	13	5	226	294	435	730	210	298	33	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	72	64	9	2	1	0	6	13	2	1	1	141	236	203	439	62	176	18	8	209	28	-6	-0	-1	-6	+2	-1.1
2018	21	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	465	423	123	23	2	20	33	110	2	20	4	291	345	496	841	206	340	24	7	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	72	68	18	6	0	4	3	20	1	5	0	265	306	529	835	265	326	28	4	359	129	+3	+1	+0	-7	+2	-0.1
2019	22	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	536	482	107	21	2	29	43	146	6	30	5	222	294	454	748	232	246	27	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	228	211	55	11	6	9	16	46	0	8	1	261	313	498	810	237	303	20	7	354	125	+7	+1	+2	-2	+5	1.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	567	513	148	35	3	31	48	90	1	14	2	288	351	550	900	261	304	16	8	387	148	+32	+2	-2	-6	+12	3.9
2022	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	609	551	139	26	1	31	55	95	1	25	4	252	321	472	793	220	261	16	9	348	122	+16	+3	+4	-7	+13	3.0
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	674	590	162	35	5	30	71	92	3	30	5	275	355	503	859	229	289	14	11	370	137	+29	+4	-7	-7	+15	3.5
2024	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	339	283	80	12	0	24	53	54	1	11	0	283	398	580	977	297	282	16	16	420	170	+28	+2	+1	-4	+7	3.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	597	509	132	24	3	23	80	88	4	25	3	259	364	454	818	194	282	15	13	364	132	+23	+4	-2	-6	+13	3.1
2026	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	627	541	128	24	5	16	77	105	3	12	0	237	335	388	723	152	257	17	12	329	109	+6	+2	-2	-7	+14	1.4
2015	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	254	239	46	9	1	2	9	41	1	18	4	192	225	264	488	71	221	16	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	—	254	232	57	12	2	3	16	29	1	18	4	246	297	353	651	108	266	11	6	287	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	497	451	109	19	6	8	31	112	6	32	12	242	299	364	663	122	297	23	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	497	432	123	25	7	9	50	81	6	32	12	285	367	438	804	153	325	16	10	353	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	619	569	128	32	5	24	35	173	10	23	9	225	282	425	707	200	276	28	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA RAW	3 teams	—	619	548	145	39	6	25	55	131	10	23	9	265	342	495	837	230	302	21	9	364	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	537	487	132	25	3	20	39	123	4	21	5	271	330	458	788	187	320	23	7	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	537	471	144	29	4	24	54	97	4	21	5	306	381	537	918	231	337	18	10	397	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	608	550	124	26	2	33	46	166	7	35	5	225	294	460	754	235	256	27	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	608	530	141	32	3	38	64	136	7	35	5	266	352	553	904	287	285	22	11	389	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	228	211	55	11	6	9	16	46	0	8	1	261	313	498	810	237	293	20	7	354	125	+7	+1	+2	-2	+5	1.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	228	209	56	12	6	9	18	46	0	8	1	268	326	512	838	244	303	20	8	362	125	+7	+1	+2	-2	+5	1.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	567	513	148	35	3	31	48	90	1	14	2	288	351	550	900	261	295	16	8	387	148	+32	+2	-2	-6	+12	3.9
2021	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	567	506	149	37	3	30	53	90	1	14	2	294	361	557	919	263	304	16	9	395	148	+32	+2	-2	-6	+12	3.9
2022	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	609	551	139	26	1	31	55	95	1	25	4	252	321	472	793	220	253	16	9	348	122	+16	+3	+4	-7	+13	3.0
2022	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	609	544	140	28	1	30	59	95	1	25	4	257	329	478	807	221	261	16	10	353	122	+16	+3	+4	-7	+13	3.0
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	674	590	162	35	5	30	71	92	3	30	5	275	355	503	859	229	276	14	11	370	137	+29	+4	-7	-7	+15	3.5
2023	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	674	574	163	37	5	29	80	92	3	30	5	284	370	517	888	233	289	14	12	382	137	+29	+4	-7	-7	+15	3.5
2024	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	339	283	80	12	0	24	53	54	1	11	0	283	398	580	977	297	271	16	16	420	170	+28	+2	+1	-4	+7	3.6
2024	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	339	277	80	13	0	23	56	54	1	11	0	289	407	585	991	296	282	16	17	425	170	+28	+2	+1	-4	+7	3.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	597	509	132	24	3	23	80	88	4	25	3	259	364	454	818	194	272	15	13	364	132	+23	+4	-2	-6	+13	3.1
2025	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	597	500	133	25	4	22	87	88	4	25	3	266	378	464	842	198	282	15	15	372	132	+23	+4	-2	-6	+13	3.1
2026	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	627	541	128	24	5	16	77	105	3	12	0	237	335	388	723	152	263	17	12	329	109	+6	+2	-2	-7	+14	1.4
2026	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	627	540	126	23	4	17	78	105	3	12	0	233	333	385	719	152	257	17	12	322	109	+6	+2	-2	-7	+14	1.4
2015	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	254	242	46	9	1	2	9	41	1	18	4	190	225	260	485	70	216	16	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	497	457	109	19	6	8	31	112	6	32	12	239	299	359	658	120	289	23	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	619	569	128	32	5	24	35	173	10	23	9	225	282	425	707	200	273	28	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	537	489	132	25	3	20	39	123	4	21	5	270	330	456	786	186	318	23	7	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	608	550	124	26	2	33	46	166	7	35	5	225	294	460	754	235	255	27	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	228	210	55	11	6	9	16	46	0	8	1	262	313	500	813	238	303	20	7	354	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	567	513	148	35	3	31	48	90	1	14	2	288	351	550	900	261	304	16	8	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	609	548	139	26	1	31	55	95	1	25	4	254	321	474	796	221	261	16	9	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	674	595	162	35	5	30	71	92	3	30	5	272	355	499	855	227	289	14	11	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	339	282	80	12	0	24	53	54	1	11	0	284	398	582	979	298	282	16	16	420	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	597	508	132	24	3	23	80	88	4	25	3	260	364	455	819	195	282	15	13	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	627	542	128	24	5	16	77	105	3	12	0	236	335	387	722	151	257	17	12	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	339	282	80	12	0	24	53	54	1	11	0	284	398	582	979	298	282	16	16	420	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	597	508	132	24	3	23	80	88	4	25	3	260	364	455	819	195	282	15	13	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	627	542	128	24	5	16	77	105	3	12	0	236	335	387	722	151	257	17	12	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	547	469	119	22	4	19	70	90	3	13	4	255	354	439	794	185	276	16	13	352	124	+16	+1	+2	-6	+12	2.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	476	409	102	18	3	17	61	78	3	11	3	251	351	435	786	185	269	16	13	349	124	+14	+1	+2	-5	+10	2.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	558	480	120	22	4	19	70	94	3	8	3	249	349	427	776	178	271	17	13	345	120	+13	+0	-0	-6	+12	1.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	543	468	112	20	3	17	68	94	2	4	3	242	341	411	752	169	266	17	13	336	113	+9	-0	-1	-6	+12	1.3
2030	33	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	444	384	90	16	3	13	55	79	2	0	2	233	332	392	723	159	258	18	12	324	106	+3	-1	-2	-5	+10	0.5
2031	34	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	346	300	67	11	2	10	42	64	1	0	1	222	320	369	689	147	249	18	12	311	96	-1	-0	-3	-4	+7	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	558	480	117	21	3	19	70	94	3	8	3	245	345	423	768	178	265	17	13	342	120	+13	+0	-0	-6	+12	1.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	543	468	111	19	3	18	68	94	2	4	3	238	338	407	745	169	259	17	13	333	113	+9	-0	-1	-6	+12	1.3
2030	33	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	444	384	88	15	2	14	55	79	2	0	2	230	329	388	717	159	253	18	12	322	106	+3	-1	-2	-5	+10	0.5
2031	34	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	346	300	66	10	2	10	42	64	1	0	1	219	317	366	683	147	244	18	12	308	96	-1	-0	-3	-4	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5676	4913	1256	248	34	225	676	934	24	143	25	256	347	457	805	202	272	16	12	354	116	+179	+19	-14	-72	+123	23.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	144	28	4	26	77	107	3	16	3	256	347	458	806	202	272	16	12	354	116	+20	+2	-2	-8	+14	2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	8523	7535	1875	366	55	326	856	1594	52	277	62	249	330	442	771	193	273	19	10	339	116	+193	+20	-12	-77	+133	26.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	143	28	4	25	65	122	4	21	5	249	329	442	771	193	273	19	10	339	116	+20	+2	-1	-8	+14	2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAARound Rock Express · 536 PAwOBA .383 → .320 (−64)K% 21.6% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.64%	÷1.022	×1.290	—	—	27.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.01%	÷1.030	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.97%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.15%
Singles /BIP	17.29%	÷0.966	×0.900	×0.954	×1.050	16.15%
Doubles /BIP	7.49%	÷0.995	×0.810	×0.954	×1.050	6.11%
Triples /BIP	0.86%	÷1.126	×0.810	×0.954	×1.050	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	9.80%	÷0.948	×0.780	—	×1.050	8.47%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .383 → .320; ISO .289 → .241; BABIP .280 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 465 PAwOBA .418 → .365 (−53)K% 18.1% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.06%	÷0.982	×1.290	—	—	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.89%	÷1.025	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.20%
HBP% /PA	0.43%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.44%
Singles /BIP	25.08%	÷0.962	×0.900	×0.996	×1.050	24.54%
Doubles /BIP	8.36%	÷0.974	×0.810	×0.996	×1.050	7.27%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.996	×1.050	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	7.43%	÷0.951	×0.780	—	×1.050	6.40%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .418 → .365; ISO .258 → .218; BABIP .364 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 318 PAwOBA .353 → .298 (−55)K% 20.1% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.13%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	25.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.29%	÷1.056	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.38%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	1.44%
Singles /BIP	17.04%	÷1.014	×0.920	×0.967	×1.050	15.69%
Doubles /BIP	9.42%	÷0.964	×0.840	×0.967	×1.050	8.33%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.967	×1.050	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	7.17%	÷1.035	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.82%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .353 → .298; ISO .247 → .205; BABIP .286 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Buies Creek Astros · 206 PAwOBA .395 → .313 (−81)K% 21.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.84%	÷0.954	×1.420	—	—	32.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.17%	÷0.981	×0.630	—	×1.042	7.47%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.860	—	×1.042	1.31%
Singles /BIP	19.70%	÷0.999	×0.940	×0.954	×1.042	18.42%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.990	×0.830	×0.954	×1.042	7.58%
Triples /BIP	3.03%	÷0.984	×0.800	×0.954	×1.042	2.45%
Home runs /BIP	6.82%	÷1.006	×0.900	—	×1.042	6.35%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 97, K 91, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .395 → .313; ISO .266 → .216; BABIP .336 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 428 PAwOBA .329 → .276 (−53)K% 17.5% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.52%	÷0.982	×1.360	—	—	24.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.18%	÷1.044	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.65%
HBP% /PA	1.40%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.14%
Singles /BIP	24.50%	÷1.022	×0.920	×0.984	×1.045	22.67%
Doubles /BIP	6.38%	÷1.185	×0.830	×0.984	×1.045	4.59%
Triples /BIP	1.68%	÷1.004	×0.910	×0.984	×1.045	1.56%
Home runs /BIP	2.01%	÷0.911	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.85%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 104, 2B 137, 3B 101, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .329 → .276; ISO .126 → .105; BABIP .322 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 69 PAwOBA .456 → .391 (−64)K% 8.7% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.70%	÷0.962	×1.340	—	—	12.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.49%	÷1.046	×0.710	—	×1.050	10.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.98%	÷0.982	×0.910	×1.045	×1.050	17.26%
Doubles /BIP	11.32%	÷1.070	×0.820	×1.045	×1.050	9.52%
Triples /BIP	3.77%	÷0.900	×0.760	×1.045	×1.050	3.50%
Home runs /BIP	5.66%	÷1.252	×0.920	—	×1.050	4.37%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 96, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .456 → .391; ISO .322 → .269; BABIP .340 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKGreeneville Astros · 254 PAwOBA .280 → .220 (−60)K% 11.4% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.42%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	16.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.51%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×1.022	3.61%
HBP% /PA	0.39%	—	×0.740	—	×1.022	0.30%
Singles /BIP	19.70%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.977	×1.022	16.54%
Doubles /BIP	5.91%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.977	×1.022	4.37%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.977	×1.022	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	1.48%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.022	1.21%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .280 → .220; ISO .108 → .083; BABIP .266 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kirk Gibson'79-'95 * career totals — 16 seasons, 6,656 PA	10.0	6,656	255	284	264*	350*	484*	-71	-26	35.1	30.6
/162	664	25	28	-7.1	-2.6	3.5	pk7: 26
#2Carlos Gonzálezlast yr '19 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,551 PA	8.4	5,551	234	122	285	343	500	-50	-23	32.3	30.2
/162	664	28	15	-6.0	-2.7	3.9	pk7: 28
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	9.3	6,152	239	155	257	346	458	-66	-21	31.4	28.6
/162	664	26	17	-7.1	-2.3	3.4	pk7: 26
#3Cliff Floyd'93-'09 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,063 PA	9.1	6,063	233	148	267*	344*	468*	-74	-15	28.6	27.2
/162	664	26	16	-8.1	-1.7	3.1	pk7: 26
#4Von Hayes'81-'92 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,052 PA	9.1	6,052	143	253	265*	354*	446*	-54	+11	27.3	26.0
/162	664	16	28	-6.0	+1.2	3.0	pk7: 25
#5Yasiel Puiglast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,376 PA	5.1	3,376	132	79	277	348	475	-36	-12	17.1	17.1
/162	664	26	16	-7.1	-2.3	3.4	pk7: 17
#6Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kyle Tucker (OGILVIE)	30	—	—	—	—	252/352/435	183	276	16	11	16%	13%	124	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Josh Reddick 2017 · MLB	30	54→61	50→60	49→50	53	270/325/428	158	286	18	10	13%	8%	112	+2.2	270/326/421	151	293	17	9	14%	8%	111	+2.1	268/325/416	148	288	17	7	14%	8%	110	+1.8
✕Bobby Higginson 2002 · MLB	31	55→57	54→55	50	61	279/359/471	192	290	20	16	12%	11%	134	+3.8	258/337/406	148	276	15	12	12%	10%	112	+2.2	248/331/382	134	267	14	10	13%	10%	105	+1.5
✕LaMonte Wade Jr. 2024 · MLB	30	48→55	54→55	49→45	59	247/346/423	177	276	22	5	20%	12%	119	+2.7	231/335/365	134	286	14	4	22%	13%	102	+1.5	213/324/329	116	273	12	3	24%	13%	91	+0.4
●Corey Koskie 2003 · MLB	30	54→62	52→60	47→50	56	270/357/451	181	317	18	14	20%	11%	129	+3.4	263/350/445	182	312	20	11	21%	10%	125	+3.2	258/347/436	178	304	20	10	21%	10%	123	+2.5
✕Jody Gerut 2009 · MLB	31	54→56	55	50	52	275/331/465	190	290	22	12	14%	8%	123	+3.0	246/300/405	159	265	18	10	15%	7%	97	+1.1	230/281/375	145	246	16	7	14%	6%	83	+0.0
●David Murphy 2011 · MLB	29	54→59	51→55	51→50	53	270/332/433	163	303	18	14	18%	9%	116	+2.5	266/326/412	146	293	16	12	15%	8%	108	+1.9	253/316/396	143	274	14	5	13%	8%	100	+1.1
●Eric Hinske 2008 · MLB	30	48→55	53→60	49→50	52	244/326/432	187	298	19	8	24%	10%	114	+2.3	244/327/444	200	284	23	9	22%	10%	117	+2.6	244/328/448	203	280	25	7	22%	10%	119	+1.5
●Kole Calhoun 2018 · MLB	30	51→58	50→60	46→50	53	255/331/412	157	296	18	4	20%	9%	111	+2.1	230/311/423	193	265	25	5	23%	10%	106	+1.8	227/315/456	229	252	31	3	24%	10%	117	+1.5
✕Aaron Hicks 2019 · MLB	29	47→56	55→60	49→55	63	246/350/436	190	271	23	12	19%	14%	123	+3.0	236/345/422	186	277	22	9	22%	14%	118	+2.7	218/334/395	177	260	21	5	24%	14%	110	+0.7
★Curtis Granderson 2011 · MLB	30	48→58	57→65	55→50	53	250/323/451	201	278	24	14	20%	10%	117	+2.6	242/329/475	233	283	30	15	25%	11%	124	+3.1	240/340/459	219	272	26	7	22%	12%	127	+3.4
✕Todd Hollandsworth 2003 · MLB	30	55	54→55	46→50	49	281/334/469	188	323	22	14	20%	8%	125	+3.2	264/319/434	170	312	16	8	20%	7%	111	+2.1	258/313/417	160	305	14	6	20%	7%	106	+0.7
●Ian Happ 2024 · MLB	29	50→54	53→60	49→50	56	250/343/431	181	304	19	11	23%	12%	120	+2.8	241/337/429	188	296	22	9	25%	12%	117	+2.6	232/332/422	191	286	23	7	26%	12%	115	+2.6
●Jason Heyward 2021 · MLB	31	50→59	52→55	49→50	58	255/342/422	167	284	19	7	18%	11%	117	+2.6	235/309/384	149	272	16	8	19%	9%	97	+1.1	234/306/407	173	262	20	6	19%	8%	102	+0.7
✕Kelly Johnson 2011 · MLB	29	52→58	53→55	49→50	54	263/339/448	185	304	19	11	20%	10%	122	+2.9	234/312/408	174	289	20	13	25%	10%	103	+1.6	222/301/389	167	276	20	14	26%	9%	96	+0.9
●Matt Joyce 2014 · MLB	29	46→52	55→60	47→50	56	242/329/431	189	270	23	9	20%	11%	115	+2.4	231/329/387	156	279	17	4	22%	12%	105	+1.7	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9
✕Jason Kipnis 2017 · MLB	30	56→62	49→55	52→55	51	274/340/437	163	322	15	14	19%	8%	120	+2.8	241/309/410	169	276	18	9	19%	8%	103	+1.5	229/306/387	158	261	18	7	20%	9%	97	+0.8
✕Olmedo Saenz 2001 · MLB	30	57	54→60	51→30	54	286/366/474	188	317	21	6	17%	9%	138	+4.1	249/323/421	172	281	18	4	18%	7%	110	+2.1	270/336/498	228	301	30	0	21%	7%	134	+1.5
●Seth Smith 2013 · MLB	30	48→55	52→60	48→50	51	246/316/426	180	280	19	7	20%	9%	109	+2.0	254/333/423	169	304	15	3	20%	10%	114	+2.3	254/345/433	179	297	17	0	19%	11%	121	+2.3
✕Gabe Gross 2009 · MLB	29	48→56	53→55	49→50	58	245/336/427	182	282	20	8	20%	12%	116	+2.5	234/312/362	128	284	12	11	21%	10%	92	+0.7	228/304/329	101	283	7	12	21%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Alex Dickerson 2020 · MLB	30	52→56	52→60	47→45	47	262/327/438	176	309	18	5	21%	7%	116	+2.5	250/314/444	194	290	24	4	22%	7%	112	+2.2	225/288/408	182	261	23	1	23%	7%	94	+0.4

Kyle Tucker

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps