Jason Heyward

RF San Diego Padres

Age 37 L/L 6'5" / 240 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 17.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2023	33	MLBLAD	377	.269/.340/.473	15	2	128	2.0
2024	34	MLBHOU	258	.211/.290/.412	10	5	90	0.1
2025	35	MLBSD	95	.176/.228/.271	2	0	36	-0.8
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBSD	105	.233/.299/.391	3	2	96	0.2
2028PROJ	38	MLBSD	80	.221/.286/.364	2	0	84	-0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service17.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd60

Speed43

xwOBA42

Barrel%39

Avg EV28

CompsRay Martinez (age 37) · Mario Valdez (age 37) · Jose Luis Sandoval (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7896vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .299 / .391

PA105

HR3

K%23

BB%8

BABIP274

ISO158

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT

xAVG

300.235

POWER

Barrel%

396.7

Avg EV

2887.5

Bat Spd

6072.4

SPEED

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 341 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

319

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

217

283

▶▶R

ISO

136

183

▶▶R

BABIP

300

205

◀◀L

50.0%

18.8%

▶▶R

BB%

0.0%

7.8%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2010

Service 17.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.6M
Totals		$1M		$0.4M	-$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2007	17	ROK	Danville Braves	—	48	43	13	5	0	1	3	9	1	1	1	302	362	488	850	186	353	19	6	368	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	25	22	4	2	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	211	16	8	231	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A	Rome Braves	—	508	449	145	27	6	11	49	74	3	15	3	323	393	483	877	160	361	15	10	384	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	195	162	57	13	4	7	28	19	2	5	1	352	453	611	1.064	259	360	10	14	454	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	214	189	56	12	0	10	21	30	2	4	0	296	373	519	891	222	305	14	10	388	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	623	520	144	29	5	18	91	128	10	11	6	277	395	456	850	179	335	21	15	380	143	+32	-0	-1	-7	+13	3.8
2011	21	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	456	396	90	18	2	14	51	93	4	9	2	227	320	389	709	162	260	20	11	317	99	-1	+1	+4	-5	+10	0.9
2012	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	651	587	158	30	6	27	58	152	2	21	8	269	336	479	815	210	319	23	9	357	130	+23	+1	+5	-7	+14	3.7
2013	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	440	382	97	22	1	14	48	73	8	2	4	254	349	427	775	173	281	17	11	347	121	+11	-1	+6	-5	+10	2.1
2013	23	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	26	20	6	1	0	0	4	7	1	1	0	300	440	350	790	50	429	27	15	359	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	649	573	155	26	3	11	67	98	6	20	4	271	353	384	737	113	308	15	10	333	110	+8	+2	+13	-7	+14	3.0
2015	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	610	547	160	33	4	13	56	90	2	23	3	293	359	439	798	146	329	15	9	354	124	+17	+3	+11	-7	+13	4.0
2016	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	592	530	122	27	1	7	54	93	5	11	4	230	307	325	632	94	266	16	9	289	81	-14	+1	+8	-6	+13	0.1
2017	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	481	432	112	15	4	11	41	67	3	4	4	259	327	389	716	130	284	14	9	319	100	+0	-1	+3	-5	+10	0.7
2018	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	489	440	119	23	4	8	42	60	2	1	1	270	336	395	732	125	297	12	9	326	104	+2	-0	+1	-5	+11	0.9
2019	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	589	513	129	20	4	21	68	110	5	8	3	251	345	429	774	177	281	19	12	345	115	+11	+0	+5	-6	+13	2.3
2020	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	181	147	39	6	2	6	30	37	2	2	0	265	397	456	852	190	311	20	17	378	139	+8	+0	+1	-2	+4	1.2
2021	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	353	323	69	15	2	8	27	68	3	5	1	214	280	347	627	133	247	19	8	283	76	-10	+1	+2	-4	+8	-0.4
2022	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	151	137	28	5	1	1	11	32	3	1	0	204	278	277	556	73	260	21	7	258	59	-7	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.4
2023	33	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	377	334	90	23	0	15	34	64	3	2	2	269	340	473	813	204	291	17	9	355	128	+13	-0	+4	-4	+8	2.0
2024	34	MLB	Houston Astros	—	258	228	48	12	2	10	22	53	4	5	0	211	290	412	702	202	226	21	9	308	90	-3	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.1
2025	35	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	95	85	15	2	0	2	6	20	0	0	1	176	228	271	499	94	197	21	6	220	36	-7	-0	-1	-1	+2	-0.8
2025	35	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	23	21	2	1	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	95	174	143	317	48	154	35	4	157	-38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6995	6174	1575	306	41	186	706	1238	62	125	43	255	337	408	745	153	290	18	10	333	111	+94	+8	+60	-73	+152	24.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2007	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	48	44	11	4	0	1	2	13	1	1	1	250	298	409	707	159	286	27	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	25	23	4	2	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	174	208	261	469	87	196	24	4	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	508	467	137	23	6	9	31	99	3	15	3	293	341	426	767	133	344	19	6	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	195	173	56	13	4	6	17	23	2	5	1	324	391	549	940	225	336	12	9	411	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	214	197	52	10	0	9	13	43	2	4	0	264	316	452	768	188	292	20	6	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	623	522	144	28	5	19	89	128	10	11	6	276	391	458	849	182	335	21	14	380	143	+32	-0	-1	-7	+13	3.8
2011	21	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	456	402	90	17	2	15	47	93	4	9	2	224	311	388	699	164	260	20	10	314	99	-1	+1	+4	-5	+10	0.9
2012	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	651	589	158	28	6	29	57	152	2	21	8	268	335	484	819	216	319	23	9	360	130	+23	+1	+5	-7	+14	3.7
2013	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	440	384	97	21	1	15	47	73	8	2	4	253	346	430	776	177	281	17	11	348	121	+11	-1	+6	-5	+10	2.1
2013	23	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	26	21	6	1	0	0	3	9	1	1	0	286	400	333	733	48	401	35	12	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	649	576	155	25	3	12	64	98	6	20	4	269	348	385	734	116	308	15	10	330	110	+8	+2	+13	-7	+14	3.0
2015	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	610	553	160	32	4	14	52	90	2	23	3	289	353	438	790	148	329	15	9	351	124	+17	+3	+11	-7	+13	4.0
2016	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	592	530	121	26	1	7	54	93	5	11	4	228	306	321	626	92	266	16	9	287	81	-14	+1	+8	-6	+13	0.1
2017	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	481	434	111	15	3	11	40	67	3	4	4	256	323	380	703	124	284	14	8	316	100	+0	-1	+3	-5	+10	0.7
2018	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	489	442	117	22	3	8	41	60	2	1	1	265	330	382	712	118	297	12	8	322	104	+2	-0	+1	-5	+11	0.9
2019	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	589	518	128	19	3	22	63	110	5	8	3	247	334	423	757	176	281	19	11	338	115	+11	+0	+5	-6	+13	2.3
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	181	148	39	6	2	6	29	37	2	2	0	264	391	453	844	189	311	20	16	373	139	+8	+0	+1	-2	+4	1.2
2021	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	353	324	69	15	2	8	26	68	3	5	1	213	278	346	623	133	247	19	7	280	76	-10	+1	+2	-4	+8	-0.4
2022	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	151	137	28	5	1	1	11	32	3	1	0	204	278	277	556	73	260	21	7	256	59	-7	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.4
2023	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	377	338	91	24	0	14	33	64	3	2	2	269	340	464	804	195	291	17	9	358	128	+13	-0	+4	-4	+8	2.0
2024	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	258	231	47	11	2	10	20	53	4	5	0	203	278	398	677	195	226	21	8	301	90	-3	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.1
2025	35	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	95	86	15	2	0	2	6	20	0	0	1	174	228	267	496	93	197	21	6	221	36	-7	-0	-1	-1	+2	-0.8
2025	35	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	23	21	2	1	0	0	1	10	1	0	0	95	174	143	317	48	125	43	4	112	-38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	48	44	11	4	0	1	2	13	1	1	1	250	298	409	707	159	323	27	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	17	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	—	48	43	13	5	0	1	3	9	1	1	1	302	362	488	850	186	353	19	6	368	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	533	489	141	25	6	9	33	105	3	15	3	288	337	419	756	131	345	20	6	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	533	471	149	29	6	11	51	78	3	15	3	316	387	473	860	157	354	15	10	377	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	409	370	110	23	4	16	30	66	4	9	1	297	356	511	867	214	321	16	7	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	409	351	113	25	4	17	49	49	4	9	1	322	411	561	972	239	331	12	12	420	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	623	522	144	28	5	19	89	128	10	11	6	276	391	458	849	182	332	21	14	380	143	+32	-0	-1	-7	+13	3.8
2010	20	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	623	520	144	29	5	18	91	128	10	11	6	277	395	456	850	179	335	21	15	380	143	+32	-0	-1	-7	+13	3.8
2011	21	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	456	402	90	17	2	15	47	93	4	9	2	224	311	388	699	164	253	20	10	314	99	-1	+1	+4	-5	+10	0.9
2011	21	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	456	396	90	18	2	14	51	93	4	9	2	227	320	389	709	162	260	20	11	317	99	-1	+1	+4	-5	+10	0.9
2012	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	651	589	158	28	6	29	57	152	2	21	8	268	335	484	819	216	314	23	9	360	130	+23	+1	+5	-7	+14	3.7
2012	22	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	651	587	158	30	6	27	58	152	2	21	8	269	336	479	815	210	319	23	9	357	130	+23	+1	+5	-7	+14	3.7
2013	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	466	405	103	22	1	15	50	82	9	3	4	254	349	425	774	170	285	18	11	346	121	+11	-1	+6	-5	+10	2.2
2013	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	466	402	103	23	1	14	52	80	9	3	4	256	353	423	776	167	288	17	11	348	121	+11	-1	+6	-5	+10	2.2
2014	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	649	576	155	25	3	12	64	98	6	20	4	269	348	385	734	116	305	15	10	330	110	+8	+2	+13	-7	+14	3.0
2014	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	649	573	155	26	3	11	67	98	6	20	4	271	353	384	737	113	308	15	10	333	110	+8	+2	+13	-7	+14	3.0
2015	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	610	553	160	32	4	14	52	90	2	23	3	289	353	438	790	148	323	15	9	351	124	+17	+3	+11	-7	+13	4.0
2015	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	610	547	160	33	4	13	56	90	2	23	3	293	359	439	798	146	329	15	9	354	124	+17	+3	+11	-7	+13	4.0
2016	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	592	530	121	26	1	7	54	93	5	11	4	228	306	321	626	92	264	16	9	287	81	-14	+1	+8	-6	+13	0.1
2016	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	592	530	122	27	1	7	54	93	5	11	4	230	307	325	632	94	266	16	9	289	81	-14	+1	+8	-6	+13	0.1
2017	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	481	434	111	15	3	11	40	67	3	4	4	256	323	380	703	124	279	14	8	316	100	+0	-1	+3	-5	+10	0.7
2017	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	481	432	112	15	4	11	41	67	3	4	4	259	327	389	716	130	284	14	9	319	100	+0	-1	+3	-5	+10	0.7
2018	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	489	442	117	22	3	8	41	60	2	1	1	265	330	382	712	118	290	12	8	322	104	+2	-0	+1	-5	+11	0.9
2018	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	489	440	119	23	4	8	42	60	2	1	1	270	336	395	732	125	297	12	9	326	104	+2	-0	+1	-5	+11	0.9
2019	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	589	518	128	19	3	22	63	110	5	8	3	247	334	423	757	176	272	19	11	338	115	+11	+0	+5	-6	+13	2.3
2019	29	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	589	513	129	20	4	21	68	110	5	8	3	251	345	429	774	177	281	19	12	345	115	+11	+0	+5	-6	+13	2.3
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	181	148	39	6	2	6	29	37	2	2	0	264	391	453	844	189	308	20	16	373	139	+8	+0	+1	-2	+4	1.2
2020	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	181	147	39	6	2	6	30	37	2	2	0	265	397	456	852	190	311	20	17	378	139	+8	+0	+1	-2	+4	1.2
2021	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	353	324	69	15	2	8	26	68	3	5	1	213	278	346	623	133	246	19	7	280	76	-10	+1	+2	-4	+8	-0.4
2021	31	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	353	323	69	15	2	8	27	68	3	5	1	214	280	347	627	133	247	19	8	283	76	-10	+1	+2	-4	+8	-0.4
2022	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	151	137	28	5	1	1	11	32	3	1	0	204	278	277	556	73	260	21	7	256	59	-7	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.4
2022	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	151	137	28	5	1	1	11	32	3	1	0	204	278	277	556	73	260	21	7	258	59	-7	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.4
2023	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	377	338	91	24	0	14	33	64	3	2	2	269	340	464	804	195	293	17	9	358	128	+13	-0	+4	-4	+8	2.0
2023	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	377	334	90	23	0	15	34	64	3	2	2	269	340	473	813	204	291	17	9	355	128	+13	-0	+4	-4	+8	2.0
2024	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	258	231	47	11	2	10	20	53	4	5	0	203	278	398	677	195	216	21	8	301	90	-3	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.1
2024	34	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	258	228	48	12	2	10	22	53	4	5	0	211	290	412	702	202	226	21	9	308	90	-3	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.1
2025	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	118	107	17	3	0	2	7	30	1	0	1	159	217	243	460	84	192	25	6	200	22	-11	-0	-1	-1	+3	-1.1
2025	35	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	118	106	17	3	0	2	7	28	1	0	1	160	217	245	463	85	190	24	6	208	22	-11	-0	-1	-1	+3	-1.1
2007	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	48	45	11	4	0	1	2	13	1	1	1	244	298	400	698	156	286	27	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	533	492	141	25	6	9	33	105	3	15	3	287	337	417	754	130	337	20	6	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	409	372	110	23	4	16	30	66	4	9	1	296	356	508	865	212	313	16	7	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	623	519	144	28	5	19	89	128	10	11	6	277	391	461	852	183	335	21	14	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	456	402	90	17	2	15	47	93	4	9	2	224	311	388	699	164	260	20	10	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	651	587	158	28	6	29	57	152	2	21	8	269	335	486	820	216	319	23	9	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	466	404	103	22	1	15	50	82	9	3	4	255	349	426	775	171	288	18	11	346	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	649	574	155	25	3	12	64	98	6	20	4	270	348	387	735	117	308	15	10	330	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	610	551	160	32	4	14	52	90	2	23	3	290	353	439	792	149	329	15	9	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	592	528	121	26	1	7	54	93	5	11	4	229	306	322	628	93	266	16	9	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	481	435	111	15	3	11	40	67	3	4	4	255	323	379	702	124	284	14	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	489	443	117	22	3	8	41	60	2	1	1	264	330	381	711	117	297	12	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	589	516	128	19	3	22	63	110	5	8	3	248	334	424	759	176	281	19	11	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	181	148	39	6	2	6	29	37	2	2	0	264	391	453	844	189	311	20	16	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	353	321	69	15	2	8	26	68	3	5	1	215	278	349	627	134	247	19	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	151	136	28	5	1	1	11	32	3	1	0	206	278	279	558	74	260	21	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	377	338	91	24	0	14	33	64	3	2	2	269	340	464	804	195	291	17	9	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	258	232	47	11	2	10	20	53	4	5	0	203	278	397	675	194	226	21	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	118	109	17	3	0	2	7	30	1	0	1	156	217	239	456	83	183	25	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	258	232	47	11	2	10	20	53	4	5	0	203	278	397	675	194	226	21	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	118	109	17	3	0	2	7	30	1	0	1	156	217	239	456	83	183	25	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	37	MLB MLE	SD	100%	169	153	36	7	1	5	12	38	2	3	1	236	302	396	698	159	280	22	7	310	96	-1	+0	+1	-2	+4	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	37	MLB CTX	SD	100%	105	95	22	4	1	3	8	24	1	2	0	233	299	391	690	158	274	23	8	306	96	-1	+0	+1	-1	+2	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	SD	100%	80	73	16	3	0	2	6	19	1	0	0	225	289	368	657	144	270	24	8	293	84	-1	+0	-7	-1	+2	-0.8
2028	38	MLB CTX	SD	100%	80	73	16	3	0	2	6	19	1	0	0	221	286	364	650	143	264	24	8	290	84	-1	+0	-7	-1	+2	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7075	6247	1591	309	41	188	712	1257	63	125	43	255	336	408	744	153	290	18	10	332	110	+93	+8	+53	-74	+153	23.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	146	28	4	17	65	115	6	11	4	254	336	406	742	152	290	18	10	332	110	+9	+1	+5	-7	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	8219	7327	1878	357	49	224	762	1484	74	153	48	256	332	410	743	154	292	18	9	331	110	+92	+8	+54	-75	+156	23.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	149	28	4	18	60	117	6	12	4	257	333	413	746	155	292	18	9	331	110	+8	+1	+5	-7	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 23 PAwOBA .154 → .112 (−41)K% 34.8% → 42.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.78%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	42.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.35%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	×0.940	2.68%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	3.84%
Singles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.999	×0.930	—	×0.940	6.73%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.042	×0.830	—	×0.940	5.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .154 → .112; ISO .048 → .032; BABIP .154 → .125. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAGwinnett Braves · 26 PAwOBA .365 → .326 (−39)K% 26.9% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.92%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	33.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷0.991	×0.690	—	×1.048	11.23%
HBP% /PA	3.85%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	3.79%
Singles /BIP	38.46%	÷1.038	×0.930	—	×1.048	36.11%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.964	×0.830	—	×1.048	6.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.047	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.949	×0.840	—	×1.048	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 109, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .365 → .326; ISO .050 → .047; BABIP .429 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 214 PAwOBA .380 → .336 (−44)K% 14.0% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.02%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	19.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.35%	÷1.000	×0.630	—	×1.042	6.14%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.860	—	×1.042	0.84%
Singles /BIP	21.38%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.013	×1.042	21.22%
Doubles /BIP	7.55%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.013	×1.042	6.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	×1.013	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.29%	÷1.000	×0.900	—	×1.042	5.90%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .380 → .336; ISO .222 → .201; BABIP .305 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAMississippi Braves · 195 PAwOBA .444 → .411 (−33)K% 9.7% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.74%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	11.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.31%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.050	8.79%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.90%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.980	×1.050	21.84%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.980	×1.050	8.51%
Triples /BIP	2.80%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.980	×1.050	2.53%
Home runs /BIP	4.90%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	4.11%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .444 → .411; ISO .259 → .245; BABIP .360 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 ARome Braves · 508 PAwOBA .377 → .337 (−40)K% 14.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.57%	÷1.000	×1.340	—	—	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.06%	÷1.000	×0.660	—	×1.045	6.25%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.48%
Singles /BIP	26.93%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.016	×1.045	26.30%
Doubles /BIP	7.20%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.016	×1.045	6.27%
Triples /BIP	1.60%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.016	×1.045	1.60%
Home runs /BIP	2.93%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.045	2.51%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .377 → .337; ISO .160 → .142; BABIP .361 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 25 PAwOBA .235 → .201 (−34)K% 16.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.00%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	22.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.000	×0.630	—	×1.050	5.29%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.860	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.000	×0.940	—	×1.050	10.97%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.050	9.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.900	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .235 → .201; ISO .091 → .079; BABIP .211 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 ROKDanville Braves · 48 PAwOBA .366 → .277 (−88)K% 18.8% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	26.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×1.022	4.09%
HBP% /PA	2.08%	—	×0.740	—	×1.022	1.58%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.022	17.68%
Doubles /BIP	14.71%	÷1.000	×0.740	—	×1.022	11.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.740	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.022	2.41%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .366 → .277; ISO .186 → .139; BABIP .353 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	10.9	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
/162	664	17	10	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#2Brian Jordan'92-'06 * career totals — 15 seasons, 5,646 PA	8.5	5,646	184	119	270*	320*	445*	-55	+35	20.4	20.4
/162	664	22	14	-6.4	+4.1	2.4	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 18 projected seasons	10.8	7,180	191	127	256	334	410	-78	+58	21.5	20.1
/162	664	18	12	-7.2	+5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#3Darin Erstad'96-'09 * career totals — 14 seasons, 6,615 PA	10.0	6,615	124	179	270*	325*	395*	-60	+32	14.8	15.8
/162	664	12	18	-6.1	+3.2	1.5	pk7: 17
#4Larry Herndon'74-'88 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	107	92	269*	321*	433*	-40	+17	16.4	15.4
/162	664	13	11	-5.0	+2.1	2.0	pk7: 14
#5Josh Reddicklast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,879 PA	7.3	4,879	146	61	262	321	426	-52	-8	13.1	13.0
/162	664	20	8	-7.1	-1.1	1.8	pk7: 13
#6Gerardo Parralast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,290 PA	8.0	5,290	90	97	275	322	403	-51	+11	12.3	12.3
/162	664	11	12	-6.3	+1.4	1.5	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jason Heyward (OGILVIE)	37	—	—	—	—	234/300/392	158	280	3	2	23%	7%	96	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ray Martinez 2006 · AAA	37	50→52	51→45	46→45	48	252/320/409	157	291	19	8	20%	7%	107	+1.8	237/302/359	122	276	14	9	19%	7%	88	+0.4	259/303/361	102	303	11	5	18%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Mario Valdez 2012 · AAA	37	50	49→50	43→40	51	250/313/403	153	269	17	5	15%	7%	102	+1.5	249/294/365	116	308	13	6	22%	6%	86	+0.3	253/292/337	84	323	9	2	24%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Jose Luis Sandoval 2007 · AAA	37	48→49	47→45	48→40	47	240/295/378	138	273	15	4	18%	6%	90	+0.6	241/288/347	106	279	10	5	17%	6%	80	-0.2	241/286/329	87	279	8	3	16%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Edgard Clemente 2012 · AAA	36	49	49→50	44→40	47	249/308/400	151	296	17	7	22%	7%	99	+1.3	238/299/389	151	308	17	12	27%	7%	94	+0.9	225/287/381	156	284	20	9	28%	6%	84	+0.0
✕Nyjer Morgan 2016 · MLB	36	47→57	45	53→65	48	232/294/356	124	283	13	15	23%	8%	84	+0.1	235/301/356	121	271	12	20	17%	7%	87	+0.4	232/300/343	111	265	10	26	16%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Omar Ramirez 2007 · AAA	36	49→47	48→50	51→50	50	244/303/389	145	268	15	10	16%	7%	95	+1.0	241/300/359	118	272	12	12	16%	7%	87	+0.4	249/303/316	67	272	8	13	11%	7%	75	-0.1
✕Karim Garcia 2013 · AAA	37	48→49	49→60	48→50	43	246/289/394	148	295	17	10	23%	6%	91	+0.6	224/262/366	142	271	19	6	24%	5%	74	-0.5	205/242/331	125	243	18	3	24%	4%	58	-0.9
✕Brett Gardner 2021 · MLB	37	46→56	54→55	52→65	57	240/328/430	190	269	21	12	20%	11%	114	+2.3	230/327/379	149	279	15	8	22%	12%	102	+1.5	215/322/346	131	264	12	5	22%	13%	94	+0.7
✕Ernie Young 2006 · MLB	37	45→50	50→45	44→40	46	229/310/376	147	301	20	8	30%	8%	95	+1.0	220/290/352	132	283	16	5	27%	7%	82	+0.0	208/278/329	121	264	15	1	26%	7%	70	-0.6
✕Tom Lampkin 2002 · MLB	38	46	51→50	49→45	50	237/312/399	162	259	19	5	17%	8%	101	+1.4	228/305/379	151	256	18	8	18%	9%	94	+0.9	208/291/352	144	228	18	7	18%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Tom Prince 2002 · MLB	37	46	48→50	49→45	48	232/301/374	142	264	17	9	20%	7%	91	+0.7	232/312/390	158	258	18	9	18%	8%	99	+1.3	215/311/377	162	240	16	4	18%	9%	97	+0.3
✕Orlando Palmeiro 2006 · MLB	37	53	43→40	47→50	54	257/323/378	121	275	10	8	11%	8%	99	+1.3	243/311/344	101	268	7	6	12%	8%	88	+0.4	238/308/286	48	267	0	0	10%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Pedro Swann 2007 · AAA	36	48→44	48→50	55→45	42	241/292/388	147	295	14	12	23%	5%	91	+0.6	227/273/348	121	289	12	10	25%	5%	74	-0.5	209/248/310	102	267	10	6	25%	4%	55	-1.1
✕Scott Bullett 2006 · AAA	37	48→53	53→60	55→50	43	249/293/425	176	284	22	14	21%	5%	100	+1.3	254/293/406	152	304	18	9	22%	5%	95	+1.0	267/298/410	143	319	18	4	22%	4%	95	+0.7
✕Jose Fernandez 2013 · AAA	38	49	50	49→40	49	250/305/402	152	270	18	10	16%	7%	99	+1.3	261/311/402	141	294	16	12	17%	6%	101	+1.4	332/366/464	132	351	17	10	10%	5%	131	+0.6
✕Kelly Stinnett 2007 · MLB	37	46	48→50	47→40	42	234/289/368	134	298	17	5	27%	6%	86	+0.3	206/258/320	114	260	13	6	25%	6%	62	-1.4	153/195/225	72	189	9	0	25%	4%	15	-1.6
✕Eric Sogard 2021 · MLB	35	50→57	46→45	52→55	53	245/311/374	129	273	13	8	16%	8%	95	+0.9	239/293/350	111	279	10	10	17%	7%	82	-0.0	242/276/304	62	288	3	10	17%	4%	64	-0.4
✕Al Martin 2003 · MLB	35	51→57	49→50	50	52	254/320/406	152	287	16	13	18%	8%	105	+1.7	242/297/366	124	291	11	9	20%	7%	87	+0.4	247/291/350	103	302	7	5	20%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Mark Sweeney 2007 · MLB	37	52	49→55	48→40	56	258/341/414	156	304	15	5	20%	11%	115	+2.4	231/315/348	117	286	10	7	21%	10%	91	+0.6	203/301/280	77	264	5	5	22%	11%	71	-0.2
✕Orlando Merced 2003 · MLB	36	53	49→50	54→45	50	264/323/419	155	304	16	11	19%	8%	109	+2.0	243/298/386	143	277	13	10	17%	7%	92	+0.7	227/274/366	139	256	8	8	14%	6%	79	-0.1

Jason Heyward

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps