Ian Happ

LF Chicago Cubs

Age 32 S/R 5'10" / 205 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 9.209 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	29	MLBCHC	657	.243/.342/.441	25	13	121	2.3
2025	30	MLBCHC	663	.243/.345/.420	23	6	116	1.8
2026	31	MLBCHC	636	.218/.326/.412	24	4	107	1.4
2027PROJ	32	MLBCHC	536	.239/.340/.441	22	6	120	2.3
2028PROJ	33	MLBCHC	506	.230/.330/.421	19	2	112	1.2
2029PROJ	34	MLBCHC	441	.219/.318/.396	16	1	103	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.209First FA2028NTC

2027Ext / FA-deal$18M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA76

Barrel%69

Avg EV63

Speed63

Bat Spd54

Form.234/.342/.414 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .238/.337/.443

CompsRobbie Grossman (age 32) · Eduardo Escobar (age 32) · Kole Calhoun (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 120120vR 120

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .340 / .441

PA536

HR22

SB6

K%26

BB%12

BABIP293

ISO206

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

300.235

POWER

Barrel%

6911.1

Avg EV

6390.0

Bat Spd

5471.8

SPEED

Sprint

6328.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%25%▲24% over 85 PA (60d) · proj 26%

BB%14%▲15% over 85 PA (60d) · proj 12%

ISO.180▼.125 over 72 AB (60d) · proj .205

HR/BB5.3%▼1.9% over 52 BBE (60d) · proj 6.9%

BABIP.289·.275 over 51 BIP (60d) · proj .290

SLASH.234/.342/.414▼proj .238/.337/.443

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1432 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

385

1047

—

wRC+

102

125

▶▶R

wOBA

318

353

▶R

ISO

171

203

▶▶R

BABIP

278

300

▶R

24.4%

24.6%

—

BB%

9.6%

13.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.209 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+2.4	$19M	+$1M
Totals		$18M		$19M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	20	A	South Bend Cubs	—	165	145	35	9	3	5	17	39	0	1	1	241	321	448	769	207	288	24	10	333	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	274	248	65	14	0	8	20	60	2	6	2	262	322	415	738	153	310	22	7	325	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	293	240	71	16	3	7	48	69	1	10	3	296	415	475	890	179	381	24	16	392	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	88	72	17	4	1	2	15	22	1	0	0	236	375	403	778	167	312	25	17	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	413	364	92	17	3	24	39	129	4	8	4	253	332	514	845	261	316	31	9	364	127	+13	+0	-1	+2	+9	2.3
2017	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	116	104	31	6	0	9	11	27	0	2	1	298	365	615	981	317	319	23	9	419	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	462	387	90	19	2	15	70	167	3	8	4	233	354	408	763	176	362	36	15	344	109	+5	+0	-7	+2	+10	1.0
2019	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	156	140	37	7	1	11	15	39	0	2	0	264	335	564	900	300	286	25	10	386	149	+9	+0	-0	+2	+3	1.5
2019	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	429	359	87	18	1	16	65	113	4	9	2	242	364	432	796	189	307	26	15	358	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	231	198	51	11	1	12	30	63	2	1	3	258	361	505	866	247	317	27	13	379	141	+11	-1	+1	+1	+5	1.8
2021	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	535	465	105	20	1	25	62	156	5	9	2	226	323	434	758	209	281	29	12	336	115	+9	+1	-7	-6	+12	1.0
2022	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	641	573	155	42	2	17	58	149	6	9	4	271	344	440	784	169	336	23	9	347	117	+13	+0	-1	-7	+14	2.0
2023	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	691	580	144	35	4	21	99	153	6	14	3	248	364	431	795	183	299	22	14	354	124	+19	+2	-7	-7	+15	2.2
2024	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	657	569	138	34	2	25	80	168	6	13	2	243	342	441	783	199	299	26	12	348	121	+17	+2	-3	-7	+14	2.3
2025	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	663	569	138	32	0	23	87	151	2	6	3	243	345	420	765	178	287	23	13	341	116	+13	+0	-2	-7	+14	1.8
2026	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	636	546	119	28	3	24	81	189	7	4	1	218	326	412	739	194	284	30	13	331	107	+5	+0	+1	-7	+14	1.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5085	4391	1069	245	19	197	621	1364	41	74	26	243	343	442	785	199	305	27	12	348	122	+130	+4	-25	-35	+110	18.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	20	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	165	150	27	6	2	4	12	54	0	1	1	180	241	327	567	147	240	33	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	274	253	60	14	0	6	15	74	2	6	2	237	285	364	649	126	299	27	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	293	259	60	14	2	5	29	102	1	10	3	232	311	359	670	127	344	35	10	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	413	369	93	17	3	25	34	129	4	8	4	252	322	518	839	266	316	31	8	357	127	+13	+0	-1	+2	+9	2.3
2017	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	116	107	28	5	0	8	8	32	0	2	1	262	313	533	846	271	286	28	7	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	462	396	90	18	2	16	61	167	3	8	4	227	335	404	739	177	362	36	13	330	109	+5	+0	-7	+2	+10	1.0
2019	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	156	140	37	7	1	11	15	39	0	2	0	264	335	564	900	300	286	25	10	389	149	+9	+0	-0	+2	+3	1.5
2019	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	429	375	70	13	1	12	49	142	4	9	2	187	287	323	610	136	260	33	11	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	231	199	51	11	1	12	29	63	2	1	3	256	357	503	859	246	317	27	13	377	141	+11	-1	+1	+1	+5	1.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	535	465	105	19	1	26	62	156	5	9	2	226	323	439	762	213	281	29	12	338	115	+9	+1	-7	-6	+12	1.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	641	577	155	41	2	18	54	149	6	9	4	269	338	440	778	172	336	23	8	341	117	+13	+0	-1	-7	+14	2.0
2023	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	691	582	143	34	3	22	97	153	6	14	3	246	359	428	787	182	299	22	14	351	124	+19	+2	-7	-7	+15	2.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	657	570	138	33	2	26	79	168	6	13	2	242	340	444	784	202	299	26	12	347	121	+17	+2	-3	-7	+14	2.3
2025	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	663	571	138	31	0	24	85	151	2	6	3	242	342	422	764	180	287	23	13	340	116	+13	+0	-2	-7	+14	1.8
2026	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	636	550	119	27	3	25	77	189	7	4	1	216	320	413	733	196	284	30	12	326	107	+5	+0	+1	-7	+14	1.4
2015	20	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	165	150	27	6	2	4	12	54	0	1	1	180	241	327	567	147	242	33	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	165	145	35	9	3	5	17	39	0	1	1	241	321	448	769	207	288	24	10	333	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	655	593	140	33	3	12	50	203	4	16	5	236	300	363	662	126	332	31	8	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	655	560	153	34	4	17	83	151	4	16	5	273	371	439	810	166	340	23	13	359	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	529	476	120	21	3	33	42	161	4	10	5	252	318	517	835	265	303	30	8	357	128	+17	+0	-1	+2	+11	3.0
2017	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	529	468	123	23	3	33	50	156	4	10	5	263	339	536	875	274	317	29	9	376	128	+17	+0	-1	+2	+11	3.0
2018	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	462	396	90	18	2	16	61	167	3	8	4	227	335	404	739	177	344	36	13	330	109	+5	+0	-7	+2	+10	1.0
2018	23	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	462	387	90	19	2	15	70	167	3	8	4	233	354	408	763	176	362	36	15	344	109	+5	+0	-7	+2	+10	1.0
2019	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	585	515	107	20	2	23	64	181	4	11	2	208	300	388	689	181	268	31	11	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	585	499	124	25	2	27	80	152	4	11	2	248	357	469	826	220	301	26	14	365	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	231	199	51	11	1	12	29	63	2	1	3	256	357	503	859	246	315	27	13	377	141	+11	-1	+1	+1	+5	1.8
2020	25	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	231	198	51	11	1	12	30	63	2	1	3	258	361	505	866	247	317	27	13	379	141	+11	-1	+1	+1	+5	1.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	535	465	105	19	1	26	62	156	5	9	2	226	323	439	762	213	278	29	12	338	115	+9	+1	-7	-6	+12	1.0
2021	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	535	465	105	20	1	25	62	156	5	9	2	226	323	434	758	209	281	29	12	336	115	+9	+1	-7	-6	+12	1.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	641	577	155	41	2	18	54	149	6	9	4	269	338	440	778	172	331	23	8	341	117	+13	+0	-1	-7	+14	2.0
2022	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	641	573	155	42	2	17	58	149	6	9	4	271	344	440	784	169	336	23	9	347	117	+13	+0	-1	-7	+14	2.0
2023	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	691	582	143	34	3	22	97	153	6	14	3	246	359	428	787	182	293	22	14	351	124	+19	+2	-7	-7	+15	2.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	691	580	144	35	4	21	99	153	6	14	3	248	364	431	795	183	299	22	14	354	124	+19	+2	-7	-7	+15	2.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	657	570	138	33	2	26	79	168	6	13	2	242	340	444	784	202	296	26	12	347	121	+17	+2	-3	-7	+14	2.3
2024	29	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	657	569	138	34	2	25	80	168	6	13	2	243	342	441	783	199	299	26	12	348	121	+17	+2	-3	-7	+14	2.3
2025	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	663	571	138	31	0	24	85	151	2	6	3	242	342	422	764	180	284	23	13	340	116	+13	+0	-2	-7	+14	1.8
2025	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	663	569	138	32	0	23	87	151	2	6	3	243	345	420	765	178	287	23	13	341	116	+13	+0	-2	-7	+14	1.8
2026	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	636	550	119	27	3	25	77	189	7	4	1	216	320	413	733	196	279	30	12	326	107	+5	+0	+1	-7	+14	1.4
2026	31	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	636	546	119	28	3	24	81	189	7	4	1	218	326	412	739	194	284	30	13	331	107	+5	+0	+1	-7	+14	1.4
2015	20	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	165	152	27	6	2	4	12	54	0	1	1	178	241	322	563	145	240	33	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	655	596	140	33	3	12	50	203	4	16	5	235	300	361	661	126	322	31	8	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	529	478	120	21	3	33	42	161	4	10	5	251	318	515	833	264	310	30	8	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	462	395	90	18	2	16	61	167	3	8	4	228	335	405	740	177	362	36	13	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	585	512	107	20	2	23	64	181	4	11	2	209	300	391	691	182	267	31	11	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	231	198	51	11	1	12	29	63	2	1	3	258	357	505	862	247	317	27	13	377	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	535	463	105	19	1	26	62	156	5	9	2	227	323	441	764	214	281	29	12	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	641	576	155	41	2	18	54	149	6	9	4	269	338	441	778	172	336	23	8	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	691	583	143	34	3	22	97	153	6	14	3	245	359	427	786	182	299	22	14	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	657	567	138	33	2	26	79	168	6	13	2	243	340	446	787	203	299	26	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	663	571	138	31	0	24	85	151	2	6	3	242	342	422	764	180	287	23	13	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	636	547	119	27	3	25	77	189	7	4	1	218	320	415	735	197	284	30	12	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	657	567	138	33	2	26	79	168	6	13	2	243	340	446	787	203	299	26	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	663	571	138	31	0	24	85	151	2	6	3	242	342	422	764	180	287	23	13	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	636	547	119	27	3	25	77	189	7	4	1	218	320	415	735	197	284	30	12	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	596	513	123	27	2	25	73	156	5	7	2	239	339	443	782	205	290	26	12	346	120	+14	+1	+4	-6	+13	2.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	536	461	111	25	2	22	66	141	4	6	2	239	340	441	781	202	293	26	12	345	120	+13	+0	+3	-6	+12	2.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	506	436	99	21	1	20	61	136	4	2	1	230	330	423	753	193	281	27	12	334	112	+7	+0	-1	-5	+11	1.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	441	382	84	17	1	17	53	121	3	1	1	218	318	399	717	181	270	27	12	320	103	+1	-0	-2	-5	+10	0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	506	436	100	22	1	19	61	136	4	2	1	230	330	421	751	191	284	27	12	334	112	+7	+0	-1	-5	+11	1.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	441	382	84	18	1	16	53	121	3	1	1	219	318	396	715	178	272	27	12	319	103	+1	-0	-2	-5	+10	0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6032	5209	1253	285	21	232	735	1621	48	77	28	241	340	437	777	196	301	27	12	345	111	+139	+4	-28	-45	+131	20.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	561	135	31	2	25	79	175	5	8	3	241	339	437	776	196	302	27	12	345	111	+15	+0	-3	-5	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	7933	6923	1626	356	28	300	892	2193	60	111	39	235	327	424	752	190	296	28	11	332	111	+152	+5	-25	-50	+142	22.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	567	133	29	2	25	73	180	5	9	3	235	327	425	752	190	295	28	11	332	111	+15	+0	-2	-5	+14	2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAIowa Cubs · 429 PAwOBA .349 → .273 (−77)K% 26.3% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.34%	÷1.025	×1.290	—	—	33.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.15%	÷0.968	×0.710	—	×1.033	11.48%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.94%
Singles /BIP	21.14%	÷0.993	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	18.80%
Doubles /BIP	7.32%	÷1.014	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	5.74%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷1.029	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.31%
Home runs /BIP	6.50%	÷1.050	×0.780	—	×1.033	4.99%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 106, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .273; ISO .189 → .139; BABIP .307 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAIowa Cubs · 116 PAwOBA .408 → .357 (−51)K% 23.3% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.28%	÷1.083	×1.290	—	—	27.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.62%	÷0.965	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.66%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.78%	÷0.991	×0.900	×0.994	×1.050	19.70%
Doubles /BIP	7.79%	÷1.056	×0.810	×0.994	×1.050	6.24%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.810	×0.994	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.69%	÷0.899	×0.780	—	×1.050	10.65%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 108, K 117, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .408 → .357; ISO .317 → .279; BABIP .319 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 293 PAwOBA .387 → .296 (−91)K% 23.5% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.55%	÷0.965	×1.420	—	—	34.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.04%	÷1.043	×0.630	—	×1.012	9.81%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.30%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.044	×0.940	×1.011	×1.012	24.24%
Doubles /BIP	9.36%	÷0.920	×0.830	×1.011	×1.012	8.64%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷1.038	×0.800	×1.011	×1.012	1.38%
Home runs /BIP	4.09%	÷1.311	×0.900	—	×1.012	2.84%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 162, 1B 109, 2B 84, 3B 108, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .387 → .296; ISO .179 → .134; BABIP .381 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AATennessee Smokies · 274 PAwOBA .321 → .284 (−37)K% 21.9% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.90%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	26.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.30%	÷0.982	×0.680	—	×1.042	5.27%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.64%
Singles /BIP	22.87%	÷1.013	×0.920	×1.007	×1.042	21.79%
Doubles /BIP	7.45%	÷0.918	×0.910	×1.007	×1.042	7.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	×1.007	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.26%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×1.042	3.35%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .321 → .284; ISO .153 → .132; BABIP .310 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ASouth Bend Cubs · 165 PAwOBA .330 → .248 (−83)K% 23.6% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.64%	÷0.984	×1.360	—	—	32.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.30%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.18%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.98%	÷1.036	×0.920	×0.987	×1.015	15.11%
Doubles /BIP	8.49%	÷1.109	×0.830	×0.987	×1.015	6.36%
Triples /BIP	2.83%	÷1.073	×0.910	×0.987	×1.015	2.40%
Home runs /BIP	4.72%	÷1.064	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.60%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 115, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .330 → .248; ISO .207 → .150; BABIP .288 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Buhner'87-'01 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,927 PA	8.9	5,927	310	6	245*	347*	496*	-64	-45	28.0	24.9
/162	664	35	1	-7.2	-5.0	3.1	pk7: 22
#2Nick Swisherlast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,308 PA	9.5	6,308	245	13	249	351	447	-62	-56	24.5	24.4
/162	664	26	1	-6.5	-5.9	2.6	pk7: 24
#3Jermaine Dye'96-'09 * career totals — 14 seasons, 7,214 PA	10.9	7,214	325	46	263*	328*	476*	-80	-29	24.8	24.1
/162	664	30	4	-7.3	-2.7	2.3	pk7: 23
#4Pat Burrell'00-'11 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,520 PA	9.8	6,520	292	7	244*	349*	460*	-81	-52	23.3	21.9
/162	664	30	1	-8.3	-5.2	2.4	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	9.9	6,568	256	84	242	337	441	-70	-40	26.0	21.9
/162	664	26	8	-7.1	-4.1	2.6	pk7: 18
#5Jeromy Burnitz'93-'06 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	315	74	243*	330*	466*	-62	-31	22.9	21.7
/162	664	32	7	-6.3	-3.1	2.3	pk7: 20
#6Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	9.9	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
/162	664	32	7	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ian Happ (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	236/337/439	203	290	22	6	26%	12%	120	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Robbie Grossman 2022 · MLB	32	48→58	53→50	53→50	59	243/347/420	177	285	20	17	22%	13%	119	+2.7	228/331/366	138	292	14	9	24%	13%	101	+1.4	218/324/333	115	286	10	5	25%	13%	91	+0.4
●Eduardo Escobar 2021 · MLB	32	46→56	56→60	49→50	47	245/298/442	197	266	24	5	19%	6%	105	+1.7	245/299/434	189	284	22	3	22%	7%	104	+1.6	243/298/428	184	286	22	1	23%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Kole Calhoun 2020 · MLB	32	42→52	56→60	47→50	51	228/307/421	193	262	25	6	24%	10%	105	+1.7	225/304/423	198	264	26	5	25%	9%	105	+1.7	208/286/384	175	251	24	4	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Eric Hinske 2010 · MLB	32	46→55	56→60	49→50	54	242/330/440	198	277	23	9	22%	11%	117	+2.6	241/315/422	181	294	21	4	25%	9%	107	+1.9	231/304/404	173	285	20	0	26%	9%	100	+0.5
✕Mike Ford 2024 · MLB	32	42→51	55	48→30	51	224/310/404	180	265	24	3	25%	10%	102	+1.5	220/292/373	153	273	19	6	26%	8%	88	+0.4	191/256/307	116	241	15	3	27%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Yonder Alonso 2019 · MLB	32	49→59	55	46→45	53	255/327/436	182	286	24	3	21%	10%	115	+2.4	231/310/392	161	268	20	4	21%	10%	99	+1.2	199/290/340	141	229	16	0	21%	11%	82	-0.0
✕Brad Miller 2022 · MLB	32	43→53	60	50	52	235/323/453	218	286	29	6	28%	11%	118	+2.6	221/299/370	149	285	19	8	28%	10%	90	+0.6	198/275/305	107	258	15	6	28%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Alex Dickerson 2022 · MLB	32	49→56	58→60	49→45	48	257/324/462	206	292	26	4	22%	8%	120	+2.8	217/275/369	152	264	18	5	25%	7%	80	-0.1	183/235/311	127	226	14	1	25%	6%	49	-1.6
✕Aaron Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	46→56	55→60	48→55	64	237/352/429	192	273	22	9	21%	15%	122	+3.0	226/330/361	135	280	15	10	23%	13%	99	+1.3	221/326/330	109	278	13	11	23%	13%	92	+0.4
✕Ricky Ledee 2005 · MLB	31	46→47	55→60	49→50	56	240/326/430	190	274	22	6	22%	11%	113	+2.3	239/302/393	154	285	17	5	22%	8%	96	+1.0	231/286/365	134	281	15	1	23%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Mike Yastrzemski 2023 · MLB	32	43→50	57→65	50	52	231/316/440	209	272	24	6	25%	10%	112	+2.2	234/316/436	202	281	23	6	24%	10%	111	+2.1	233/319/434	200	275	23	5	23%	10%	112	+1.8
✕Jonny Gomes 2013 · MLB	32	48→53	57→60	46→50	52	247/343/446	198	308	26	8	28%	11%	124	+3.1	238/332/400	162	306	21	4	27%	11%	109	+2.0	226/323/364	138	295	17	1	27%	11%	99	+0.6
✕Adam Melhuse 2004 · MLB	32	50	57→60	49→45	51	260/330/462	202	300	24	8	22%	9%	122	+2.9	251/303/436	185	294	23	4	23%	7%	106	+1.8	242/288/415	174	284	22	0	23%	6%	97	+0.3
✕Max Kepler 2024 · MLB	31	46→56	55→60	47→50	54	242/322/427	185	266	22	5	19%	10%	111	+2.1	236/302/391	155	272	18	4	20%	8%	96	+1.0	224/289/360	136	260	15	3	20%	8%	84	+0.1
●Jorge Polanco 2024 · MLB	31	48→58	55→60	45→50	54	249/331/436	187	292	23	7	23%	10%	117	+2.6	235/307/415	180	274	24	6	23%	9%	103	+1.5	224/294/403	179	252	24	5	22%	8%	96	+0.7
✕Brian Burgamy 2014 · AAA	33	50→47	57→50	47→50	51	263/336/454	191	300	27	9	22%	9%	122	+3.0	230/298/376	146	286	17	6	25%	8%	91	+0.6	220/291/351	130	280	14	6	25%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Brian Daubach 2004 · MLB	32	49→52	55→60	47→40	54	252/339/443	191	304	22	4	24%	11%	121	+2.9	242/324/413	171	290	19	4	22%	10%	109	+2.0	233/309/394	161	269	19	1	21%	9%	99	+0.8
✕Steven Souza Jr. 2020 · MLB	31	46→56	55→60	54→55	53	236/328/426	191	298	22	14	28%	11%	113	+2.3	222/303/393	171	309	19	11	32%	9%	97	+1.1	198/285/370	171	275	19	9	33%	9%	83	+0.0
✕Seth Brown 2024 · MLB	32	42→48	60→65	50	47	231/295/445	214	270	28	9	27%	8%	106	+1.8	237/294/413	176	297	24	7	28%	7%	98	+1.2	229/286/392	163	292	24	6	29%	7%	88	+0.2
●Dexter Fowler 2018 · MLB	32	52→62	53→55	53→55	58	261/359/452	191	311	19	12	22%	12%	130	+3.5	232/330/402	170	280	20	9	23%	12%	109	+2.0	217/320/372	156	262	20	8	24%	12%	101	+0.8

Ian Happ

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps