Mike Yastrzemski

LF Atlanta Braves

Age 36 L/L 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 7.744 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	33	MLBSF	474	.231/.303/.437	18	3	111	0.8
2025	34	MLBKC	558	.233/.336/.403	17	7	109	1.2
2026	35	MLBATL	408	.224/.310/.380	12	1	96	0.3
2027PROJ	36	MLBATL	256	.234/.322/.409	9	2	106	0.5
2028PROJ	37	MLBATL	174	.221/.307/.380	5	0	94	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.744First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV71

xwOBA56

Barrel%53

Bat Spd43

Speed42

Form.236/.319/.410 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .233/.319/.409

CompsChris Richard (age 36) · Kevin Barker (age 36) · Yadiel Hernandez (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 70106vR 119

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .322 / .409

PA256

HR9

K%22

BB%11

BABIP273

ISO178

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

240.230

POWER

Barrel%

538.7

Avg EV

7190.6

Bat Spd

4370.5

SPEED

Sprint

4227.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%22%▲21% over 71 PA (60d) · proj 22%

BB%10%·10% over 71 PA (60d) · proj 11%

ISO.175·.172 over 64 AB (60d) · proj .176

HR/BB5.4%·6.1% over 49 BBE (60d) · proj 5.0%

BABIP.270·.217 over 46 BIP (60d) · proj .273

SLASH.236/.319/.410·proj .233/.319/.409

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1106 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

199

907

—

wRC+

113

▶▶R

wOBA

247

335

▶▶R

ISO

096

197

▶▶R

BABIP

252

279

▶R

26.1%

21.8%

▶▶R

BB%

7.0%

10.8%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.744 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$12M	+0.4	$2M	-$10M
Totals		$12M		$2M	-$10M

Options · projected decision
2028	CLUB OPT	$11.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$7.0M / $4.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	201	184	46	13	4	3	14	34	2	1	2	250	310	413	723	163	293	17	7	319	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+	Frederick Keys	—	107	93	29	7	2	1	8	16	2	5	0	312	379	462	841	151	350	15	7	360	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	288	258	79	14	10	10	19	64	6	12	4	306	365	554	919	248	371	22	7	393	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	536	476	117	30	6	6	43	100	9	8	7	246	320	372	692	126	294	19	8	308	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	67	53	11	2	0	1	11	14	1	0	0	208	354	302	656	94	250	21	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	385	339	75	21	4	7	42	98	3	10	3	221	312	369	681	147	289	25	11	308	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	147	127	34	5	0	6	19	20	0	4	0	268	363	449	812	181	275	14	13	360	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	307	271	65	15	3	9	31	74	3	2	1	240	325	417	742	177	295	24	10	329	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	94	83	32	6	1	6	9	17	0	1	1	386	446	699	1.144	313	419	18	10	482	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	374	324	86	18	6	9	44	75	4	6	4	265	360	441	802	176	320	20	12	356	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	117	104	21	10	0	1	10	30	1	2	1	202	278	327	605	125	270	26	9	271	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	411	371	101	22	3	21	32	107	4	2	4	272	337	518	854	245	325	26	8	369	142	+21	-1	+2	-6	+9	2.4
2019	28	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	163	136	43	11	1	12	22	36	2	2	2	316	419	676	1.095	360	344	22	13	458	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	225	192	57	14	4	10	30	55	3	2	1	297	400	568	968	271	370	24	13	421	173	+20	+0	-5	-2	+5	1.7
2021	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	532	468	105	28	3	25	51	131	9	4	0	224	312	457	770	233	254	25	10	337	117	+11	+1	-1	-6	+12	1.7
2022	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	558	485	104	31	2	17	61	141	5	5	1	214	309	392	700	177	261	25	11	311	101	+1	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.3
2023	32	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	381	330	77	23	1	15	45	99	3	2	2	233	331	445	776	212	286	26	12	342	119	+9	-0	+0	+1	+8	1.9
2024	33	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	474	428	99	16	9	18	38	124	6	3	2	231	303	437	740	206	282	26	8	325	111	+6	-0	-3	-5	+10	0.8
2025	34	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	558	477	111	28	1	17	72	108	2	7	2	233	336	403	738	170	263	19	13	329	109	+6	+1	-2	-6	+12	1.2
2026	35	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	408	361	81	18	1	12	41	98	4	1	0	224	310	380	690	155	273	24	10	310	96	-2	+0	+0	-4	+9	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3547	3112	735	180	24	135	370	863	36	26	12	236	324	440	764	203	281	24	10	337	114	+59	+0	-10	-26	+77	10.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	201	189	45	12	4	3	9	42	2	1	2	238	280	392	672	153	292	21	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	107	96	27	6	2	1	5	23	2	5	0	281	330	417	747	135	316	21	5	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	288	267	66	12	8	8	12	88	6	12	4	247	295	442	737	195	320	31	4	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	536	490	103	25	5	4	29	123	9	8	7	210	267	306	573	96	262	23	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	385	354	64	16	3	8	27	120	3	10	3	181	245	311	556	130	249	31	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	147	135	31	4	0	5	11	25	0	4	0	230	288	370	658	141	241	17	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	307	280	56	12	2	9	22	89	3	2	1	200	266	354	619	154	254	29	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	94	86	29	5	1	5	6	21	0	1	1	337	380	593	973	256	359	22	6	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	374	340	74	13	5	8	28	89	4	6	4	218	285	356	641	138	269	24	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	117	109	18	8	0	1	5	38	1	2	1	165	209	266	475	101	234	32	4	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	411	372	104	22	3	23	31	107	4	2	4	280	342	540	882	261	325	26	8	378	142	+21	-1	+2	-6	+9	2.4
2019	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	163	143	34	8	1	9	15	48	2	2	2	238	319	497	815	259	274	29	9	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	225	194	58	14	4	11	28	55	3	2	1	299	396	582	978	284	370	24	12	424	173	+20	+0	-5	-2	+5	1.7
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	532	472	108	28	3	27	47	131	9	4	0	229	311	472	783	244	254	25	9	341	117	+11	+1	-1	-6	+12	1.7
2022	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	558	485	106	31	2	18	61	141	5	5	1	219	312	402	714	184	261	25	11	317	101	+1	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.3
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	381	333	79	23	1	16	42	99	3	2	2	237	328	456	784	219	286	26	11	344	119	+9	-0	+0	+1	+8	1.9
2024	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	474	429	101	16	9	19	37	124	6	3	2	235	305	448	753	212	282	26	8	332	111	+6	-0	-3	-5	+10	0.8
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	558	481	112	28	1	18	68	108	2	7	2	233	330	407	738	175	263	19	12	330	109	+6	+1	-2	-6	+12	1.2
2026	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	408	361	81	18	1	12	41	98	4	1	0	224	310	380	690	155	273	24	10	310	96	-2	+0	+0	-4	+9	0.3
2014	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	596	552	136	29	14	11	26	153	10	18	6	246	293	409	702	163	317	26	4	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A RAW	3 teams	—	596	535	154	34	16	14	41	114	10	18	6	288	349	490	838	202	339	19	7	362	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	603	550	116	28	6	4	33	139	10	8	7	211	268	305	574	95	269	23	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	603	529	128	32	6	7	54	114	10	8	7	242	324	365	689	123	290	19	9	308	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	532	489	94	20	3	12	38	145	3	14	3	192	255	319	574	127	246	27	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	532	466	109	26	4	13	61	118	3	14	3	234	326	391	717	157	285	22	11	322	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	366	83	16	3	13	28	111	3	3	2	227	287	393	681	167	285	28	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	401	354	97	21	4	15	40	91	3	3	2	274	353	483	836	209	325	23	10	365	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	491	448	93	22	5	9	34	127	5	8	5	208	271	339	610	132	268	26	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	491	428	107	28	6	10	54	105	5	8	5	250	341	414	754	164	308	21	11	336	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	574	515	138	30	4	32	46	155	6	4	6	268	335	528	863	260	318	27	8	368	135	+24	-2	+2	-6	+12	3.1
2019	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	574	507	144	33	4	33	54	143	6	4	6	284	360	560	920	276	330	25	9	395	135	+24	-2	+2	-6	+12	3.1
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	225	194	58	14	4	11	28	55	3	2	1	299	396	582	978	284	367	24	12	424	173	+20	+0	-5	-2	+5	1.7
2020	29	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	225	192	57	14	4	10	30	55	3	2	1	297	400	568	968	271	370	24	13	421	173	+20	+0	-5	-2	+5	1.7
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	532	472	108	28	3	27	47	131	9	4	0	229	311	472	783	244	256	25	9	341	117	+11	+1	-1	-6	+12	1.7
2021	30	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	532	468	105	28	3	25	51	131	9	4	0	224	312	457	770	233	254	25	10	337	117	+11	+1	-1	-6	+12	1.7
2022	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	558	485	106	31	2	18	61	141	5	5	1	219	312	402	714	184	265	25	11	317	101	+1	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.3
2022	31	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	558	485	104	31	2	17	61	141	5	5	1	214	309	392	700	177	261	25	11	311	101	+1	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.3
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	381	333	79	23	1	16	42	99	3	2	2	237	328	456	784	219	288	26	11	344	119	+9	-0	+0	+1	+8	1.9
2023	32	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	381	330	77	23	1	15	45	99	3	2	2	233	331	445	776	212	286	26	12	342	119	+9	-0	+0	+1	+8	1.9
2024	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	474	429	101	16	9	19	37	124	6	3	2	235	305	448	753	212	286	26	8	332	111	+6	-0	-3	-5	+10	0.8
2024	33	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	474	428	99	16	9	18	38	124	6	3	2	231	303	437	740	206	282	26	8	325	111	+6	-0	-3	-5	+10	0.8
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	558	481	112	28	1	18	68	108	2	7	2	233	330	407	738	175	261	19	12	330	109	+6	+1	-2	-6	+12	1.2
2025	34	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	558	477	111	28	1	17	72	108	2	7	2	233	336	403	738	170	263	19	13	329	109	+6	+1	-2	-6	+12	1.2
2026	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	408	361	81	18	1	12	41	98	4	1	0	224	310	380	690	155	273	24	10	310	96	-2	+0	+0	-4	+9	0.3
2026	35	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	408	361	81	18	1	12	41	98	4	1	0	224	310	380	690	155	273	24	10	310	96	-2	+0	+0	-4	+9	0.3
2014	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	596	555	136	29	14	11	26	153	10	18	6	245	293	407	700	162	310	26	4	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	603	555	116	28	6	4	33	139	10	8	7	209	268	303	571	94	262	23	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	532	486	94	20	3	12	38	145	3	14	3	193	255	321	576	128	247	27	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	367	83	16	3	13	28	111	3	3	2	226	287	392	680	166	279	28	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	491	449	93	22	5	9	34	127	5	8	5	207	271	339	610	131	261	26	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	574	517	138	30	4	32	46	155	6	4	6	267	335	526	861	259	311	27	8	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	225	192	58	14	4	11	28	55	3	2	1	302	396	589	984	286	370	24	12	424	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	532	471	108	28	3	27	47	131	9	4	0	229	311	473	784	244	254	25	9	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	558	487	106	31	2	18	61	141	5	5	1	218	312	400	713	183	261	25	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	381	333	79	23	1	16	42	99	3	2	2	237	328	456	784	219	286	26	11	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	474	428	101	16	9	19	37	124	6	3	2	236	305	449	754	213	282	26	8	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	558	483	112	28	1	18	68	108	2	7	2	232	330	406	736	174	263	19	12	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	408	360	81	18	1	12	41	98	4	1	0	225	310	381	691	156	273	24	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	474	428	101	16	9	19	37	124	6	3	2	236	305	449	754	213	282	26	8	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	558	483	112	28	1	18	68	108	2	7	2	232	330	406	736	174	263	19	12	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	408	360	81	18	1	12	41	98	4	1	0	225	310	381	691	156	273	24	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	367	322	75	16	2	12	39	82	3	4	1	234	322	409	731	176	273	22	11	325	106	+3	+0	+1	-4	+8	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	256	225	52	11	1	9	27	57	2	2	1	234	322	409	731	176	273	22	11	325	106	+2	+0	+1	-3	+6	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	174	153	34	7	1	5	18	40	1	0	0	221	307	380	687	159	261	23	10	308	94	-1	+0	-7	-2	+4	-0.6
2028	37	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	174	153	34	7	1	5	18	40	1	0	0	221	307	380	687	159	261	23	10	308	94	-1	+0	-7	-2	+4	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3721	3265	769	187	25	140	388	903	37	26	12	236	324	437	760	201	280	24	10	335	98	+58	+0	-17	-28	+81	9.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	134	33	4	24	68	158	6	5	2	235	323	433	756	198	281	24	10	335	98	+10	+0	-3	-5	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6763	6053	1391	321	58	216	574	1683	72	81	38	230	304	409	713	179	280	25	8	313	98	+59	+0	-16	-31	+86	10.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	135	31	6	21	55	162	7	8	4	232	306	414	720	182	282	25	8	313	98	+10	+0	-3	-5	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 163 PAwOBA .450 → .343 (−107)K% 22.1% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.09%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.88%	÷0.980	×0.710	—	×0.982	9.16%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	1.18%
Singles /BIP	19.00%	÷0.982	×0.900	×0.950	×0.982	16.24%
Doubles /BIP	11.00%	÷0.981	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	8.48%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷1.008	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	12.00%	÷1.027	×0.780	—	×0.982	8.95%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .450 → .343; ISO .360 → .266; BABIP .344 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 374 PAwOBA .345 → .282 (−63)K% 20.1% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.05%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	23.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.96%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.53%
HBP% /PA	1.07%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.00%
Singles /BIP	21.29%	÷0.984	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	18.96%
Doubles /BIP	7.23%	÷1.063	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	5.32%
Triples /BIP	2.41%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	1.92%
Home runs /BIP	3.61%	÷0.964	×0.840	—	×0.992	3.12%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .345 → .282; ISO .176 → .145; BABIP .320 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 117 PAwOBA .259 → .208 (−50)K% 25.6% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.64%	÷0.960	×1.220	—	—	32.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.84%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×0.968	4.74%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.850	—	×0.968	0.70%
Singles /BIP	13.51%	÷0.996	×0.970	×0.966	×0.968	12.30%
Doubles /BIP	13.51%	÷0.971	×0.860	×0.966	×0.968	11.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.966	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.35%	÷1.060	×0.780	—	×0.968	0.96%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .259 → .208; ISO .125 → .098; BABIP .270 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 307 PAwOBA .321 → .269 (−52)K% 24.1% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.10%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	29.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.77%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.13%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.92%
Singles /BIP	19.29%	÷0.989	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	17.28%
Doubles /BIP	7.61%	÷1.001	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	6.02%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	4.57%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×1.003	4.44%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 98, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .269; ISO .177 → .155; BABIP .295 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABowie Baysox · 94 PAwOBA .478 → .390 (−88)K% 18.1% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.09%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	22.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.57%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.978	6.18%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.79%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.953	×0.978	26.20%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.043	×0.860	×0.953	×0.978	6.98%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷1.016	×0.950	×0.953	×0.978	1.32%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×0.978	6.95%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 103, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .478 → .390; ISO .313 → .245; BABIP .419 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANorfolk Tides · 385 PAwOBA .299 → .247 (−52)K% 25.5% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.45%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	31.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.39%	÷1.046	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.98%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.75%
Singles /BIP	17.84%	÷1.027	×0.930	×0.966	×1.018	15.90%
Doubles /BIP	8.71%	÷1.021	×0.830	×0.966	×1.018	6.97%
Triples /BIP	1.66%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.966	×1.018	1.38%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷0.776	×0.840	—	×1.018	3.20%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 105, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .299 → .247; ISO .147 → .134; BABIP .289 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABowie Baysox · 147 PAwOBA .351 → .284 (−67)K% 13.6% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.61%	÷0.984	×1.220	—	—	16.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.24%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×0.988	7.81%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.50%	÷0.992	×0.970	×0.950	×0.988	19.73%
Doubles /BIP	4.67%	÷1.053	×0.860	×0.950	×0.988	3.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.61%	÷1.057	×0.780	—	×0.988	4.09%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 97, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .351 → .284; ISO .181 → .138; BABIP .275 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AABowie Baysox · 536 PAwOBA .304 → .252 (−52)K% 18.7% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.66%	÷0.989	×1.220	—	—	23.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.02%	÷1.014	×0.700	—	×0.998	5.52%
HBP% /PA	1.68%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.42%
Singles /BIP	19.95%	÷1.023	×0.970	×0.975	×0.998	18.40%
Doubles /BIP	7.98%	÷0.999	×0.860	×0.975	×0.998	6.68%
Triples /BIP	1.60%	÷1.123	×0.950	×0.975	×0.998	1.31%
Home runs /BIP	1.60%	÷1.197	×0.780	—	×0.998	1.04%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 125, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .304 → .252; ISO .126 → .098; BABIP .294 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Ludwicklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,938 PA	5.9	3,938	150	17	261	330	451	-42	-34	11.9	12.8
/162	664	25	3	-7.0	-5.8	2.0	pk7: 14
#2John Milner'71-'82 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,985 PA	6.0	3,985	131	31	245*	340*	448*	-58	+1	13.0	12.5
/162	664	22	5	-9.7	+0.2	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.0	3,977	149	29	236	321	437	-45	-23	12.3	11.9
/162	664	25	5	-7.5	-3.9	2.1	pk7: 11
#3Henry Rodriguez'92-'02 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	160	10	247*	307*	472*	-39	-10	9.3	10.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.7	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 11
#4Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#5Mitch Hanigerlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,089 PA	4.7	3,089	130	19	250	324	448	-31	-36	7.8	8.4
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-7.8	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Leroy Stanton'70-'78 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,883 PA	4.3	2,883	77	36	245*	314*	430*	-33	-1	6.5	7.8
/162	664	18	8	-7.7	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mike Yastrzemski (OGILVIE)	36	—	—	—	—	232/319/406	174	273	9	2	22%	11%	106	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Richard 2010 · MLB	36	41→51	54→55	48→50	45	221/288/401	181	263	23	6	26%	7%	93	+0.8	227/289/390	163	277	18	5	25%	7%	91	+0.6	225/285/384	160	273	17	0	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Kevin Barker 2011 · MLB	36	44→45	51→55	44→40	51	227/296/388	161	255	19	3	20%	8%	93	+0.8	254/313/404	150	304	14	6	20%	8%	102	+1.5	280/332/441	161	342	13	3	21%	7%	118	+1.6
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2022 · MLB	34	49→54	53→55	46→45	46	254/308/422	168	300	23	7	24%	7%	105	+1.7	249/297/389	140	311	16	7	24%	6%	93	+0.8	266/311/405	139	325	16	4	23%	6%	103	+0.8
✕Stephen Vogt 2020 · MLB	35	47→57	56→60	47→40	49	246/306/449	203	282	22	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	216/287/381	165	257	19	5	23%	9%	88	+0.4	179/259/328	149	204	20	1	24%	9%	66	-0.4
✕John Mabry 2006 · MLB	35	48	53→60	43→30	48	249/308/422	173	291	21	3	22%	8%	105	+1.7	224/296/369	145	275	16	5	24%	9%	88	+0.5	202/283/319	117	252	13	0	24%	10%	73	-0.3
✕Eric Karros 2004 · MLB	36	53→55	49→55	44→40	51	267/322/414	147	288	17	4	14%	7%	108	+1.9	246/302/393	147	270	16	7	15%	7%	96	+1.0	191/234/305	114	207	11	5	14%	5%	50	-0.4
✕A.J. Ellis 2018 · MLB	37	45→54	48→45	45→40	54	228/311/370	143	252	17	5	18%	9%	95	+0.9	247/334/371	124	299	12	6	20%	11%	103	+1.5	266/370/339	73	343	3	0	20%	14%	109	+0.6
✕Nick Hundley 2019 · MLB	35	48→45	52→55	46→40	42	245/290/418	172	303	20	4	26%	6%	97	+1.1	226/277/380	154	301	18	7	30%	6%	84	+0.1	161/196/283	123	228	14	0	36%	3%	31	-0.8
✕Michael Tucker 2006 · MLB	35	50→51	47→55	48→55	55	245/324/390	145	284	14	8	19%	10%	103	+1.6	217/308/341	124	262	11	10	20%	11%	86	+0.3	198/298/309	111	241	9	10	21%	11%	74	-0.3
✕Mario Valdez 2012 · AAA	37	50	49→50	43→40	51	250/313/403	153	269	17	5	15%	7%	102	+1.5	249/294/365	116	308	13	6	22%	6%	86	+0.3	253/292/337	84	323	9	2	24%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Jason Kipnis 2021 · MLB	34	46→56	50→55	49→55	52	234/308/394	160	270	18	8	21%	9%	99	+1.2	234/309/390	156	295	18	7	26%	8%	98	+1.2	215/293/362	147	274	17	2	27%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Matt Joyce 2021 · MLB	36	53→52	47→60	45→50	60	258/356/393	135	321	15	4	23%	13%	116	+2.5	230/326/368	138	284	15	7	23%	12%	99	+1.3	136/273/240	104	152	14	0	22%	14%	57	-0.3
✕Bill Selby 2005 · MLB	35	43→47	48→55	48→40	50	220/283/365	145	249	16	7	20%	8%	82	+0.0	246/312/426	180	251	22	6	13%	8%	107	+1.9	243/310/428	185	241	23	3	11%	7%	107	+1.4
✕Andy Tracy 2010 · AAA	36	41→45	53→55	48→45	48	218/287/387	169	254	22	6	24%	8%	89	+0.5	222/293/398	176	276	22	6	27%	9%	94	+0.9	216/291/396	180	268	22	4	28%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Dan Johnson 2015 · MLB	35	39→49	52→60	46→30	55	206/296/365	159	227	20	2	20%	10%	88	+0.4	204/288/339	135	239	16	3	21%	10%	79	-0.2	195/283/324	129	224	15	1	20%	10%	73	-0.4
✕David Dellucci 2009 · MLB	35	48→46	51→65	45→50	48	244/312/415	171	281	18	6	20%	7%	105	+1.7	235/301/375	140	293	14	9	24%	7%	91	+0.7	221/282/323	102	299	7	9	27%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Nick Martini 2024 · MLB	34	45→55	49→50	43→45	49	227/309/381	154	279	17	3	24%	9%	96	+1.0	217/296/357	140	263	15	3	23%	8%	86	+0.3	204/286/329	125	245	13	1	22%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	47→52	52→55	47→45	48	241/305/410	169	278	20	7	21%	8%	101	+1.4	250/310/410	160	287	17	7	19%	7%	103	+1.5	273/327/425	151	304	13	6	14%	5%	113	+1.4
✕Garrett Jones 2015 · MLB	34	49→52	54→60	46→50	48	251/306/442	191	289	21	3	22%	7%	109	+2.0	240/296/403	163	288	18	5	23%	7%	96	+1.0	213/255/353	139	254	18	0	24%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Lee Stevens 2002 · MLB	35	47→50	57→60	45→30	51	248/321/450	202	290	24	3	24%	9%	116	+2.5	228/310/407	179	265	22	5	22%	10%	102	+1.5	198/293/367	169	220	22	1	21%	12%	88	+0.3

Mike Yastrzemski

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps