Dan Johnson

Pos1B

B/TL/R

Born1979-08-10

Age (2027)47

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	34	AAATOR	460	.232/.385/.434	18	0	76	—	.183/.284/.334
2014	34	MLBTOR	48	.211/.348/.342	1	0	95	-1.0
2015	35	AAASTL	443	.245/.347/.420	15	1	48	—	.175/.249/.286
2015	35	MLBSTL	21	.158/.238/.158	0	0	20	-1.0
2017	37	AAABravos de Leon	271	.319/.472/.585	13	0	119	—	.241/.357/.421
2018	38	No MLB games played
2019	39	No MLB games played
2020	40	No MLB games played
2021	41	No MLB games played
2022	42	No MLB games played
2023	43	No MLB games played
2024	44	No MLB games played
2025	45	No MLB games played
2026	46	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.1

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	434	375	103	21	0	15	50	52	1	0	1	275	362	451	812	176	278	12	12	356	126	+13	-0	-8	-12	+9	0.2
2005	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	217	182	59	17	0	8	32	24	1	0	1	324	428	549	977	225	336	11	15	425	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	331	286	67	13	1	9	40	45	0	0	0	234	328	381	709	147	245	14	12	316	97	-1	+0	-3	-10	+7	-0.6
2006	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	211	172	54	13	1	7	32	27	3	0	1	314	426	523	949	209	336	13	15	414	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	495	416	98	20	1	18	72	77	3	0	0	236	352	418	771	183	246	16	15	345	116	+9	+0	-7	-9	+11	0.4
2008	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	29	26	5	0	0	2	3	7	0	0	0	192	276	423	699	231	176	24	10	309	95	-0	+0	+0	-9	+1	-0.8
2008	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	486	394	121	23	0	25	84	75	1	0	1	307	430	556	986	249	319	15	17	426	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	140	111	22	3	0	7	25	27	1	1	0	198	350	414	765	216	188	19	18	339	117	+3	+0	-4	-10	+3	-0.8
2010	30	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	427	340	103	19	0	30	75	71	5	0	0	303	435	624	1.058	321	298	17	18	449	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	91	84	10	1	0	2	6	18	1	0	0	119	187	202	389	83	125	20	7	184	11	-10	+0	-1	-9	+2	-1.8
2011	31	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	396	333	91	23	0	13	58	65	2	0	1	273	383	459	843	186	304	16	15	374	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	31	22	8	1	0	3	9	3	0	0	0	364	548	818	1.367	455	312	10	29	562	249	+5	+0	-0	-11	+1	-0.5
2012	32	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	589	476	127	21	1	28	94	94	7	1	0	267	394	492	885	225	272	16	16	386	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	578	472	118	26	0	21	96	85	4	1	0	250	380	439	819	189	261	15	17	365	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	48	38	8	2	0	1	7	10	1	0	0	211	348	342	690	132	241	21	15	308	95	-0	+0	-2	-9	+1	-1.0
2014	34	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	460	362	84	19	0	18	86	81	5	0	0	232	385	434	819	202	245	18	19	365	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	21	19	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	158	238	158	396		200	19	10	196	20	-2	+0	-0	-8	+0	-1.0
2015	35	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	443	379	93	19	1	15	55	73	4	1	1	245	347	420	767	174	264	16	12	341	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA	Bravos de Leon	—	271	207	66	12	2	13	54	37	7	0	2	319	472	585	1.057	266	333	14	20	457	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1620	1377	324	61	2	57	214	243	7	1	1	235	341	407	748	171	243	15	13	333	111	+22	-0	-25	-87	+35	-5.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	434	376	103	21	0	15	49	52	1	0	1	274	359	449	809	176	278	12	11	354	126	+13	-0	-8	-12	+9	0.2
2005	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	217	192	52	14	0	7	22	31	1	0	1	271	349	453	802	182	284	14	10	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	331	288	67	13	1	9	38	45	0	0	0	233	322	378	701	146	245	14	11	312	97	-1	+0	-3	-10	+7	-0.6
2006	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	211	183	49	11	1	6	23	35	3	0	1	268	359	437	796	169	292	17	11	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	495	420	98	20	1	18	68	77	3	0	0	233	344	414	758	181	246	16	14	339	116	+9	+0	-7	-9	+11	0.4
2008	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	29	26	5	0	0	2	3	7	0	0	0	192	276	423	699	231	176	24	10	309	95	-0	+0	+0	-9	+1	-0.8
2008	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	486	422	113	20	0	22	56	90	1	0	1	268	355	472	826	204	280	19	12	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	140	111	22	3	0	7	25	27	1	1	0	198	350	414	765	216	188	19	18	341	117	+3	+0	-4	-10	+3	-0.8
2010	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	427	370	86	15	0	23	46	88	5	0	0	232	325	459	785	227	231	21	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	91	84	10	1	0	2	6	18	1	0	0	119	187	202	389	83	125	20	7	184	11	-10	+0	-1	-9	+2	-1.8
2011	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	396	353	82	19	0	11	39	74	2	0	1	232	312	380	692	147	259	19	10	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	31	23	8	1	0	3	8	3	0	0	0	348	516	783	1.299	435	312	10	26	536	249	+5	+0	-0	-11	+1	-0.5
2012	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	589	519	115	16	1	28	53	111	7	1	0	222	302	418	720	197	217	19	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	578	509	103	21	0	17	60	106	4	1	0	202	291	344	635	141	217	18	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	48	38	8	2	0	1	7	10	1	0	0	211	348	342	690	132	241	21	15	308	95	-0	+0	-2	-9	+1	-1.0
2014	34	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	460	398	73	15	0	15	51	103	5	0	0	183	284	334	618	151	200	22	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	21	19	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	158	238	158	396		200	19	10	197	20	-2	+0	-0	-8	+0	-1.0
2015	35	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	443	399	70	15	1	9	35	97	4	1	1	175	249	286	535	110	201	22	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Bravos de Leon	—	271	228	55	10	2	9	34	47	7	0	2	241	357	421	778	180	257	17	13	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	651	568	155	35	0	22	71	83	2	0	2	273	356	451	806	178	281	13	11	351	124	+19	-1	-8	-12	+14	1.2
2005	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	651	557	162	38	0	23	82	76	2	0	2	291	384	483	867	192	297	12	13	379	124	+19	-1	-8	-12	+14	1.2
2006	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	542	471	116	24	2	15	61	80	3	0	1	246	336	401	738	155	264	15	11	324	105	+3	-0	-3	-10	+12	0.2
2006	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	542	458	121	26	2	16	72	72	3	0	1	264	366	434	801	170	279	13	13	354	105	+3	-0	-3	-10	+12	0.2
2007	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	495	420	98	20	1	18	68	77	3	0	0	233	344	414	758	181	243	16	14	339	116	+9	+0	-7	-9	+11	0.4
2007	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	495	416	98	20	1	18	72	77	3	0	0	236	352	418	771	183	246	16	15	345	116	+9	+0	-7	-9	+11	0.4
2008	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	515	448	118	20	0	24	59	97	1	0	1	263	350	469	819	205	281	19	11	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	515	420	126	23	0	27	87	82	1	0	1	300	421	548	969	248	311	16	17	419	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	481	107	18	0	30	71	115	6	1	0	222	330	447	777	225	223	20	13	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	567	451	125	22	0	37	100	98	6	1	0	277	414	572	986	295	271	17	18	422	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	487	437	91	20	0	13	45	92	3	0	1	208	287	343	630	135	234	19	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	487	417	101	24	0	15	64	83	3	0	1	242	346	408	754	165	268	17	13	339	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	620	542	123	17	1	31	61	114	7	1	0	227	313	434	747	207	226	18	10	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	620	498	135	22	1	31	103	97	7	1	0	271	402	506	908	235	274	16	17	395	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	578	509	103	21	0	17	60	106	4	1	0	202	291	344	635	141	220	18	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	578	472	118	26	0	21	96	85	4	1	0	250	380	439	819	189	261	15	17	365	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	508	436	81	17	0	16	58	113	6	0	0	186	290	335	625	149	206	22	11	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	508	400	92	21	0	19	93	91	6	0	0	230	382	425	807	195	245	18	18	360	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	418	73	15	1	9	37	101	4	1	1	175	248	280	528	105	204	22	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	464	398	96	19	1	15	57	77	4	1	1	241	342	407	749	166	260	17	12	334	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Bravos de Leon	—	271	228	55	10	2	9	34	47	7	0	2	241	357	421	778	180	264	17	13	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA RAW	Bravos de Leon	—	271	207	66	12	2	13	54	37	7	0	2	319	472	585	1.057	266	333	14	20	457	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	651	573	155	35	0	22	71	83	2	0	2	271	356	447	802	176	280	13	11	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	542	473	116	24	2	15	61	80	3	0	1	245	336	400	736	154	263	15	11	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	495	421	98	20	1	18	68	77	3	0	0	233	344	413	757	181	246	16	14	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	515	450	118	20	0	24	59	97	1	0	1	262	350	467	817	204	274	19	11	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	485	107	18	0	30	71	115	6	1	0	221	330	443	773	223	220	20	13	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	487	436	91	20	0	13	45	92	3	0	1	209	287	344	631	135	234	19	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	620	547	123	17	1	31	61	114	7	1	0	225	313	430	743	205	222	18	10	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	578	509	103	21	0	17	60	106	4	1	0	202	291	344	635	141	217	18	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	508	439	81	17	0	16	58	113	6	0	0	185	290	333	623	148	204	22	11	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	420	73	15	1	9	37	101	4	1	1	174	248	279	527	105	201	22	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Bravos de Leon	—	271	228	55	10	2	9	34	47	7	0	2	241	357	421	778	180	257	17	13	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1620	1377	324	61	2	57	214	243	7	1	1	235	341	407	748	171	243	15	13	333	100	+22	-0	-25	-87	+35	-5.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	552	130	24	1	23	86	98	3	0	0	236	342	408	749	172	243	15	13	333	100	+9	-0	-10	-35	+14	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5698	4958	1120	217	7	204	625	1025	46	4	8	226	318	396	714	170	241	18	11	316	100	+22	-0	-25	-87	+35	-5.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	128	25	1	23	71	117	5	0	1	226	318	396	714	170	242	18	11	316	100	+9	-0	-10	-35	+14	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAABravos de Leon · 271 PAwOBA .446 → .344 (−102)K% 13.7% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.65%	÷0.942	×1.200	—	—	17.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.82%	÷0.968	×0.690	—	×0.940	12.60%
HBP% /PA	2.58%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	2.28%
Singles /BIP	22.94%	÷1.036	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	18.39%
Doubles /BIP	7.06%	÷0.960	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	5.45%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×0.940	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	7.65%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×0.940	5.13%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 88, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 38 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .446 → .344; ISO .266 → .200; BABIP .333 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 443 PAwOBA .334 → .239 (−95)K% 16.5% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.48%	÷0.967	×1.290	—	—	21.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.96%	÷1.013	×0.710	—	×0.940	7.88%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.83%
Singles /BIP	18.95%	÷1.030	×0.900	×0.950	×0.940	14.79%
Doubles /BIP	6.21%	÷0.946	×0.810	×0.950	×0.940	4.75%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×0.940	0.26%
Home runs /BIP	4.90%	÷1.224	×0.780	—	×0.940	2.94%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .334 → .239; ISO .174 → .114; BABIP .264 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAABuffalo Bisons · 460 PAwOBA .358 → .280 (−79)K% 17.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.61%	÷0.942	×1.200	—	—	22.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.83%	÷1.041	×0.690	—	×0.940	11.11%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.96%
Singles /BIP	16.73%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	14.35%
Doubles /BIP	6.76%	÷0.985	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	5.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.41%	÷1.006	×0.840	—	×0.940	5.03%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 88, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .358 → .280; ISO .202 → .168; BABIP .245 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAANorfolk Tides · 578 PAwOBA .357 → .285 (−72)K% 14.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.71%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	18.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.92%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.940	10.31%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.61%
Singles /BIP	18.35%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.954	×0.940	15.78%
Doubles /BIP	6.72%	÷0.956	×0.830	×0.954	×0.940	5.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.954	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.43%	÷1.006	×0.840	—	×0.940	4.26%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .357 → .285; ISO .189 → .156; BABIP .261 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAACharlotte Knights · 589 PAwOBA .378 → .316 (−61)K% 16.0% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.96%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.43%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×0.942	8.96%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.05%
Singles /BIP	20.16%	÷1.009	×0.930	×0.952	×0.942	16.65%
Doubles /BIP	5.50%	÷1.065	×0.830	×0.952	×0.942	3.84%
Triples /BIP	0.26%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.952	×0.942	0.25%
Home runs /BIP	7.33%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×0.942	6.70%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .378 → .316; ISO .225 → .215; BABIP .272 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAADurham Bulls · 396 PAwOBA .365 → .306 (−59)K% 16.4% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.41%	÷1.051	×1.200	—	—	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.14%	÷0.938	×0.690	—	×0.952	9.90%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.45%
Singles /BIP	20.52%	÷0.969	×0.930	×0.981	×0.952	18.39%
Doubles /BIP	8.58%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.981	×0.952	6.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.970	×0.981	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.85%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×0.952	4.04%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 110, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .365 → .306; ISO .186 → .159; BABIP .304 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAADurham Bulls · 427 PAwOBA .440 → .340 (−100)K% 16.6% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.63%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	20.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.16%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	×0.962	10.74%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.06%
Singles /BIP	20.07%	÷1.037	×0.930	×0.953	×0.962	16.51%
Doubles /BIP	7.06%	÷1.026	×0.830	×0.953	×0.962	5.24%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.953	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.15%	÷1.151	×0.840	—	×0.962	7.83%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .440 → .340; ISO .321 → .244; BABIP .298 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAADurham Bulls · 486 PAwOBA .420 → .357 (−64)K% 15.4% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.43%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	18.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.08%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	11.57%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.19%
Singles /BIP	22.88%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.000	×0.982	20.90%
Doubles /BIP	7.21%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.000	×0.982	5.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.000	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.84%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×0.982	6.46%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .420 → .357; ISO .249 → .217; BABIP .319 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).