Matt Joyce

PosRF

B/TL/R

Born1984-08-03

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	34	MLBATL	238	.295/.408/.450	7	0	148	1.5
2020	35	MLBMIA	148	.252/.354/.331	2	1	105	-0.1
2021	36	AA/APHI	39	.286/.459/.429	1	0	104	—	.257/.378/.389
2021	36	MLBPHI	69	.091/.265/.218	2	0	30	-0.6
2022	37	No MLB games played
2023	38	No MLB games played
2024	39	No MLB games played
2025	40	No MLB games played
2026	41	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2021

xwOBA70

Barrel%33

Speed26

Avg EV23

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	21	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	530	465	120	30	5	11	56	70	3	5	4	258	342	415	757	157	280	13	11	335	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	514	456	117	33	3	17	51	127	3	4	6	257	335	454	789	197	317	25	10	347	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	277	242	61	16	3	12	31	65	2	0	2	252	342	492	834	240	293	23	11	363	132	+11	-1	+1	-5	+6	1.1
2008	23	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	227	200	54	13	2	13	24	62	2	2	3	270	354	550	904	280	325	27	11	391	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	37	32	6	1	0	3	3	7	1	1	0	188	278	500	778	312	130	19	8	329	109	+0	+0	-3	-6	+1	-0.7
2009	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	493	417	114	35	2	16	67	98	3	14	5	273	378	482	860	209	317	20	14	377	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	261	216	52	15	3	10	40	55	2	2	2	241	364	477	841	236	273	21	15	368	132	+10	-0	+1	-4	+6	1.2
2010	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	115	92	27	8	0	3	22	21	1	1	3	293	435	478	913	185	353	18	19	409	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	40	29	11	5	0	2	10	8	0	1	0	379	538	759	1.297	379	450	20	25	529	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	522	462	128	32	2	19	49	106	4	13	1	277	351	478	830	201	317	20	9	362	124	+15	+2	-4	-6	+11	1.9
2012	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	462	399	96	18	3	17	55	102	6	4	3	241	341	429	770	188	281	22	12	343	115	+8	-0	-7	-5	+10	0.6
2013	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	481	413	97	22	0	18	59	87	2	7	3	235	333	419	752	184	251	18	12	332	112	+7	+0	-3	-5	+10	0.9
2014	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	493	418	106	23	2	9	62	111	4	2	5	254	355	383	738	129	316	23	13	330	105	+3	-2	-6	-5	+11	0.2
2015	30	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	284	247	43	12	1	5	30	67	4	0	3	174	274	291	566	117	215	24	11	260	62	-13	-1	-3	-5	+6	-1.6
2015	30	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	43	36	12	1	0	2	5	9	1	0	0	333	429	528	956	194	385	21	12	414	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	117	95	29	5	0	5	22	21	0	1	0	305	436	516	952	211	348	18	19	422	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	293	231	56	10	1	13	59	67	3	1	1	242	403	463	866	221	285	23	20	389	147	+16	-0	-3	-3	+6	1.7
2017	32	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	544	469	114	33	0	25	66	113	2	4	1	243	339	473	812	230	263	21	12	354	131	+20	+0	-3	-6	+12	2.4
2018	33	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	246	207	43	9	0	7	35	53	1	0	2	208	325	353	678	145	242	22	14	308	94	-2	-1	-2	-3	+5	-0.2
2018	33	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	35	32	9	3	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	281	343	375	718	94	333	14	9	325	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	238	200	59	10	0	7	38	45	0	0	0	295	408	450	858	155	351	19	16	386	148	+13	+0	-2	-3	+5	1.5
2020	35	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	148	127	32	4	0	2	20	41	0	1	0	252	354	331	684	79	353	28	14	316	105	+1	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.1
2021	36	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	69	55	5	1	0	2	12	16	1	0	0	91	265	218	483	127	79	23	17	237	30	-6	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.6
2021	36	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	17	12	3	0	0	1	3	4	1	0	0	250	438	500	938	250	250	24	18	395	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	22	16	5	1	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	312	476	375	851	62	333	9	23	381	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4355	3718	898	206	15	149	559	935	32	35	23	242	346	425	771	184	280	21	13	342	118	+92	-2	-37	-59	+94	9.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	530	484	103	24	4	9	37	95	3	5	4	213	273	335	608	122	243	18	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	514	471	103	27	3	13	36	155	3	4	6	219	278	372	650	153	289	30	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	277	242	61	16	3	12	31	65	2	0	2	252	342	492	834	240	293	23	11	363	132	+11	-1	+1	-5	+6	1.1
2008	23	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	227	207	49	11	2	11	17	74	2	2	3	237	301	469	769	232	308	33	7	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	37	32	6	1	0	3	3	7	1	1	0	188	278	500	778	312	130	19	8	329	109	+0	+0	-3	-6	+1	-0.7
2009	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	493	438	102	29	2	14	46	118	3	14	5	233	310	404	714	171	277	24	9	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	261	218	52	15	3	10	38	55	2	2	2	239	357	472	829	234	273	21	15	364	132	+10	-0	+1	-4	+6	1.2
2010	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	115	101	24	7	0	2	13	26	1	1	3	238	330	366	697	129	302	23	11	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	40	32	9	4	0	1	7	12	0	1	0	281	410	500	910	219	382	30	18	411	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	522	471	129	33	2	20	40	106	4	13	1	274	336	480	816	206	317	20	8	351	124	+15	+2	-4	-6	+11	1.9
2012	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	462	403	95	18	3	17	51	102	6	4	3	236	330	422	752	186	281	22	11	338	115	+8	-0	-7	-5	+10	0.6
2013	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	481	413	97	22	0	19	59	87	2	7	3	235	333	426	759	191	251	18	12	334	112	+7	+0	-3	-5	+10	0.9
2014	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	493	422	106	24	2	9	58	111	4	2	5	251	347	382	729	130	316	23	12	324	105	+3	-2	-6	-5	+11	0.2
2015	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	284	248	43	12	1	5	29	67	4	0	3	173	270	290	561	117	215	24	10	259	62	-13	-1	-3	-5	+6	-1.6
2015	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	43	38	11	1	0	2	3	12	1	0	0	289	357	474	831	184	320	28	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	293	235	57	10	1	14	55	67	3	1	1	243	392	472	865	230	285	23	19	385	147	+16	-0	-3	-3	+6	1.7
2017	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	544	469	115	32	0	27	66	113	2	4	1	245	341	486	827	241	263	21	12	361	131	+20	+0	-3	-6	+12	2.4
2018	33	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	246	209	44	9	0	8	33	53	1	0	2	211	321	368	689	158	242	22	13	307	94	-2	-1	-2	-3	+5	-0.2
2018	33	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	35	33	7	2	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	212	257	273	530	61	281	17	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	238	200	59	10	0	7	38	45	0	0	0	295	408	450	858	155	351	19	16	386	148	+13	+0	-2	-3	+5	1.5
2020	35	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	148	127	32	4	0	2	20	41	0	1	0	252	354	331	684	79	353	28	14	323	105	+1	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.1
2021	36	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	69	57	5	1	0	2	10	16	1	0	0	88	235	211	446	123	79	23	14	213	30	-6	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.6
2021	36	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	17	13	3	0	0	1	2	5	1	0	0	231	375	462	837	231	215	29	12	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	22	18	5	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	278	381	333	714	56	282	14	14	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	530	484	103	24	4	9	37	95	3	5	4	213	273	335	608	122	244	18	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	530	465	120	30	5	11	56	70	3	5	4	258	342	415	757	157	280	13	11	335	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	514	471	103	27	3	13	36	155	3	4	6	219	278	372	650	153	294	30	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	—	514	456	117	33	3	17	51	127	3	4	6	257	335	454	789	197	317	25	10	347	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	504	449	110	27	5	23	48	139	4	2	5	245	323	481	804	236	300	28	10	348	122	+13	-2	+1	-5	+11	1.8
2008	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	504	442	115	29	5	25	55	127	4	2	5	260	347	518	865	258	307	25	11	376	122	+13	-2	+1	-5	+11	1.8
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	470	108	30	2	17	49	125	4	15	5	230	308	411	718	181	272	24	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	530	449	120	36	2	19	70	105	4	15	5	267	371	483	854	216	304	20	13	373	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	416	351	86	27	3	14	58	93	3	4	5	245	357	459	815	214	290	22	14	357	128	+14	-1	+1	-4	+9	1.9
2010	25	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	416	337	90	28	3	15	72	84	3	4	5	267	400	501	902	234	310	20	17	395	128	+14	-1	+1	-4	+9	1.9
2011	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	522	471	129	33	2	20	40	106	4	13	1	274	336	480	816	206	310	20	8	351	124	+15	+2	-4	-6	+11	1.9
2011	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	522	462	128	32	2	19	49	106	4	13	1	277	351	478	830	201	317	20	9	362	124	+15	+2	-4	-6	+11	1.9
2012	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	462	403	95	18	3	17	51	102	6	4	3	236	330	422	752	186	274	22	11	338	115	+8	-0	-7	-5	+10	0.6
2012	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	462	399	96	18	3	17	55	102	6	4	3	241	341	429	770	188	281	22	12	343	115	+8	-0	-7	-5	+10	0.6
2013	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	481	413	97	22	0	19	59	87	2	7	3	235	333	426	759	191	248	18	12	334	112	+7	+0	-3	-5	+10	0.9
2013	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	481	413	97	22	0	18	59	87	2	7	3	235	333	419	752	184	251	18	12	332	112	+7	+0	-3	-5	+10	0.9
2014	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	493	422	106	24	2	9	58	111	4	2	5	251	347	382	729	130	312	23	12	324	105	+3	-2	-6	-5	+11	0.2
2014	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	493	418	106	23	2	9	62	111	4	2	5	254	355	383	738	129	316	23	13	330	105	+3	-2	-6	-5	+11	0.2
2015	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	444	391	72	18	1	9	44	108	5	1	3	184	275	304	579	120	227	24	10	268	67	-17	-1	-3	-5	+10	-1.7
2015	30	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	444	378	84	18	1	12	57	97	5	1	3	222	332	370	702	148	265	22	13	318	67	-17	-1	-3	-5	+10	-1.7
2016	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	293	235	57	10	1	14	55	67	3	1	1	243	392	472	865	230	279	23	19	385	147	+16	-0	-3	-3	+6	1.7
2016	31	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	293	231	56	10	1	13	59	67	3	1	1	242	403	463	866	221	285	23	20	389	147	+16	-0	-3	-3	+6	1.7
2017	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	544	469	115	32	0	27	66	113	2	4	1	245	341	486	827	241	262	21	12	361	131	+20	+0	-3	-6	+12	2.4
2017	32	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	544	469	114	33	0	25	66	113	2	4	1	243	339	473	812	230	263	21	12	354	131	+20	+0	-3	-6	+12	2.4
2018	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	281	242	51	11	0	8	35	59	1	0	2	211	313	355	668	145	243	21	12	301	90	-3	-1	-2	-3	+6	-0.3
2018	33	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	281	239	52	12	0	7	38	58	1	0	2	218	327	356	683	138	256	21	14	310	90	-3	-1	-2	-3	+6	-0.3
2019	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	238	200	59	10	0	7	38	45	0	0	0	295	408	450	858	155	351	19	16	386	148	+13	+0	-2	-3	+5	1.5
2019	34	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	238	200	59	10	0	7	38	45	0	0	0	295	408	450	858	155	351	19	16	386	148	+13	+0	-2	-3	+5	1.5
2020	35	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	148	127	32	4	0	2	20	41	0	1	0	252	354	331	684	79	353	28	14	323	105	+1	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.1
2020	35	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	148	127	32	4	0	2	20	41	0	1	0	252	354	331	684	79	353	28	14	316	105	+1	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.1
2021	36	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	108	88	12	2	0	2	15	24	2	0	0	136	276	227	503	91	154	22	14	252	57	-6	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.5
2021	36	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	108	83	13	2	0	3	20	22	2	0	0	157	333	289	622	133	164	20	19	291	57	-6	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.5
2006	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	530	485	103	24	4	9	37	95	3	5	4	212	273	334	607	122	243	18	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	514	470	103	27	3	13	36	155	3	4	6	219	278	372	651	153	289	30	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	504	447	110	27	5	23	48	139	4	2	5	246	323	483	807	237	300	28	10	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	472	108	30	2	17	49	125	4	15	5	229	308	409	717	180	267	24	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	416	352	86	27	3	14	58	93	3	4	5	244	357	457	814	213	291	22	14	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	522	473	129	33	2	20	40	106	4	13	1	273	336	478	814	205	317	20	8	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	462	402	95	18	3	17	51	102	6	4	3	236	330	423	753	187	281	22	11	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	481	417	97	22	0	19	59	87	2	7	3	233	333	422	755	189	251	18	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	493	428	106	24	2	9	58	111	4	2	5	248	347	376	723	129	316	23	12	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	444	392	72	18	1	9	44	108	5	1	3	184	275	304	579	120	229	24	10	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	293	233	57	10	1	14	55	67	3	1	1	245	392	476	869	232	285	23	19	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	544	471	115	32	0	27	66	113	2	4	1	244	341	484	825	240	263	21	12	361	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	281	243	51	11	0	8	35	59	1	0	2	210	313	354	667	144	247	21	12	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	238	198	59	10	0	7	38	45	0	0	0	298	408	455	862	157	351	19	16	386	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	35	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	148	127	32	4	0	2	20	41	0	1	0	252	354	331	684	79	353	28	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	108	90	12	2	0	2	15	24	2	0	0	133	276	222	498	89	142	22	14	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4355	3718	898	206	15	149	559	935	32	35	23	242	346	425	771	184	280	21	13	342	106	+92	-2	-37	-59	+94	9.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	555	134	31	2	22	83	140	5	5	3	241	345	423	768	182	281	22	13	342	106	+14	-0	-6	-9	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6508	5686	1335	319	26	210	709	1470	46	63	44	235	324	411	735	176	277	23	11	325	106	+92	-2	-37	-59	+94	9.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	134	32	3	21	71	147	5	6	4	236	326	414	740	178	278	23	11	325	106	+14	-0	-6	-9	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AClearwater Threshers · 22 PAwOBA .391 → .326 (−65)K% 9.1% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.09%	÷0.992	×1.360	—	—	12.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.73%	÷0.980	×0.690	—	×0.940	15.04%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.036	×0.920	—	×0.940	23.86%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.915	×0.830	—	×0.940	6.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (15.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .391 → .326; ISO .062 → .061; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAReading Fightin Phils · 17 PAwOBA .410 → .314 (−96)K% 23.5% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	29.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷0.989	×0.690	—	×0.940	11.58%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.850	—	×0.940	4.70%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.989	×0.940	—	×0.940	22.34%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.870	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.50%	÷1.344	×0.780	—	×0.940	6.82%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 169, 1B 98, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .410 → .314; ISO .250 → .158; BABIP .250 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANashville Sounds · 35 PAwOBA .317 → .256 (−61)K% 14.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.29%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	17.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.57%	÷0.966	×0.710	—	×0.940	5.92%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.986	×0.900	—	×0.940	19.07%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.937	×0.810	—	×0.940	9.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.988	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 111, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .317 → .256; ISO .094 → .076; BABIP .333 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAASalt Lake Bees · 43 PAwOBA .413 → .324 (−89)K% 20.9% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.93%	÷0.952	×1.290	—	—	28.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.63%	÷1.025	×0.710	—	×0.962	7.75%
HBP% /PA	2.33%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	2.19%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.012	×0.900	—	×0.962	28.51%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷1.001	×0.810	—	×0.962	2.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.987	×0.810	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.41%	÷0.980	×0.780	—	×0.962	5.67%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 100, 3B 97, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .413 → .324; ISO .194 → .147; BABIP .385 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAADurham Bulls · 115 PAwOBA .392 → .324 (−68)K% 18.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.26%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	22.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.52%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	×1.018	11.62%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.83%
Singles /BIP	22.54%	÷1.037	×0.930	×0.979	×1.018	20.15%
Doubles /BIP	11.27%	÷1.026	×0.830	×0.979	×1.018	9.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.979	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.23%	÷1.151	×0.840	—	×1.018	3.14%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .392 → .324; ISO .185 → .150; BABIP .353 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 40 PAwOBA .525 → .411 (−114)K% 20.0% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.979	×1.420	—	—	29.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.50%	÷0.988	×0.750	—	×0.968	16.54%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.968	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷0.948	×0.920	—	×0.968	17.89%
Doubles /BIP	23.81%	÷1.097	×0.960	—	×0.968	20.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.070	×0.810	—	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.52%	÷1.628	×0.880	—	×0.968	4.98%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 226, 1B 90, 2B 119, 3B 114, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .525 → .411; ISO .379 → .264; BABIP .450 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAADurham Bulls · 493 PAwOBA .369 → .313 (−56)K% 19.9% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.88%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	23.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.98%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.25%
HBP% /PA	0.61%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.59%
Singles /BIP	19.12%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	17.45%
Doubles /BIP	10.97%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	8.94%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	5.02%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	4.35%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .369 → .313; ISO .209 → .182; BABIP .317 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 227 PAwOBA .380 → .330 (−50)K% 27.3% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.31%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.13%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.33%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.87%
Singles /BIP	18.84%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.017	×1.048	18.68%
Doubles /BIP	9.42%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.017	×1.048	8.34%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.017	×1.048	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	9.42%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	8.29%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .380 → .330; ISO .280 → .243; BABIP .325 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .