Max Kepler

RF Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 34 L/L 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 9.512 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	31	MLBMIN	399	.253/.303/.380	8	1	92	0.2
2025	32	MLBPHI	474	.216/.303/.391	18	3	89	-0.3
2026	33	MLBARI	145	.205/.266/.303	2	0	52	-0.7
2027PROJ	34	MLBARI	193	.232/.301/.388	6	2	90	0.2
2028PROJ	35	MLBARI	151	.220/.287/.361	4	0	79	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.512First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV59

Barrel%55

xwOBA52

Bat Spd50

Speed43

CompsNick Martini (age 34) · Don Kelly (age 34) · Brian Burgamy (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8090vR 93

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .301 / .388

PA193

HR6

K%21

BB%8

BABIP268

ISO155

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

340.238

POWER

Barrel%

558.9

Avg EV

5989.8

Bat Spd

5071.3

SPEED

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 873 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

158

715

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

297

304

—

ISO

137

157

▶R

BABIP

296

256

◀L

22.8%

19.2%

▶▶R

BB%

5.1%

8.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.512 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.6M
Totals		$1M		$0.4M	-$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	17	ROK	GCL Twins	—	153	140	40	6	1	0	13	27	0	6	1	286	346	343	689	57	354	18	8	315	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	221	191	50	11	3	1	23	54	3	1	1	262	350	366	717	105	355	24	10	321	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	232	69	16	5	10	27	33	8	7	0	297	390	539	928	241	309	12	10	403	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	263	236	56	11	3	9	24	43	2	2	0	237	313	424	737	186	254	16	9	326	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	72	64	15	5	0	0	7	13	0	0	0	234	310	312	622	78	288	18	10	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	407	364	96	20	6	5	34	62	5	6	2	264	335	393	728	129	304	15	8	324	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	82	75	23	4	3	0	6	14	1	3	0	307	366	440	806	133	377	17	7	358	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	407	131	32	13	9	67	63	2	18	4	322	420	531	951	209	359	13	14	412	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	26	24	6	2	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	250	308	333	641	83	316	19	8	292	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	447	396	93	20	2	17	42	93	3	6	2	235	313	424	737	189	261	21	9	324	102	+1	+0	+8	-6	+10	1.3
2016	23	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	128	110	31	4	6	1	16	14	0	1	1	282	373	455	828	173	309	11	12	361	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	568	511	124	32	2	19	47	114	6	6	1	243	314	425	738	182	276	20	8	326	105	+3	+1	+5	-6	+12	1.5
2018	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	611	532	119	30	4	20	71	96	5	4	5	224	321	408	729	184	236	16	12	325	104	+3	-1	+5	-7	+13	1.3
2019	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	596	524	132	32	0	36	60	99	8	1	5	252	338	519	857	267	244	17	10	372	137	+26	-2	+4	-6	+13	3.6
2020	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	196	171	39	9	0	9	22	36	2	3	0	228	323	439	762	211	236	18	11	337	114	+3	+1	+1	-2	+4	0.7
2021	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	490	426	90	21	4	19	54	96	6	10	0	211	309	413	722	202	225	20	11	320	99	-0	+2	+5	-5	+11	1.2
2022	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	446	388	88	18	1	9	49	66	5	3	2	227	321	348	669	121	249	15	11	304	91	-5	-0	+6	-5	+10	0.6
2023	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	491	438	114	22	2	24	45	106	4	1	1	260	335	484	819	224	288	22	9	357	128	+16	-0	+2	-5	+11	2.3
2024	31	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	399	368	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	253	303	380	683	128	300	20	6	304	92	-4	+0	+1	-4	+9	0.2
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	417	90	19	0	18	48	93	4	3	0	216	303	391	694	175	232	20	10	309	89	-6	+1	-3	-5	+10	-0.3
2026	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	145	132	27	7	0	2	11	32	0	0	0	205	266	303	569	98	250	22	8	256	52	-8	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.7
2026	33	AAA	Reno Aces	—	24	21	6	1	0	0	3	4	0	1	0	286	375	333	708	48	353	17	12	329	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4863	4303	1009	231	16	181	471	911	48	38	16	234	317	422	739	187	255	19	10	327	107	+42	+1	+33	-54	+105	13.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	17	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	153	145	32	4	1	0	8	39	0	6	1	221	261	262	524	41	305	25	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	221	199	40	8	2	1	15	77	3	1	1	201	267	276	544	75	303	35	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	242	56	12	4	8	17	47	8	7	0	231	303	413	717	182	247	17	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	263	245	50	9	3	6	15	61	2	2	0	204	256	339	595	135	240	23	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	407	372	82	18	5	4	26	88	5	6	2	220	280	328	608	108	273	22	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	432	125	31	12	6	42	78	2	18	4	289	355	458	813	169	330	16	9	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	26	25	5	2	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	200	231	280	511	80	295	27	4	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	447	399	93	20	2	17	39	93	3	6	2	233	306	421	727	188	261	21	9	319	102	+1	+0	+8	-6	+10	1.3
2016	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	128	115	33	3	7	1	11	17	0	1	1	287	349	461	810	174	310	13	9	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	568	513	124	32	2	19	45	114	6	6	1	242	310	423	733	181	276	20	8	323	105	+3	+1	+5	-6	+12	1.5
2018	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	611	534	119	30	4	20	69	96	5	4	5	223	317	406	724	184	236	16	11	322	104	+3	-1	+5	-7	+13	1.3
2019	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	596	524	132	32	0	36	60	99	8	1	5	252	338	519	857	267	244	17	10	371	137	+26	-2	+4	-6	+13	3.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	196	171	39	9	0	9	22	36	2	3	0	228	323	439	762	211	236	18	11	337	114	+3	+1	+1	-2	+4	0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	490	429	90	21	4	19	51	96	6	10	0	210	302	410	713	200	225	20	10	315	99	-0	+2	+5	-5	+11	1.2
2022	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	446	389	88	18	1	9	48	66	5	3	2	226	319	347	666	121	249	15	11	302	91	-5	-0	+6	-5	+10	0.6
2023	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	491	438	114	22	2	24	45	106	4	1	1	260	335	484	819	224	288	22	9	357	128	+16	-0	+2	-5	+11	2.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	399	369	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	252	303	379	682	127	300	20	6	304	92	-4	+0	+1	-4	+9	0.2
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	420	89	19	0	17	45	93	4	3	0	212	294	379	673	167	232	20	9	300	89	-6	+1	-3	-5	+10	-0.3
2026	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	145	133	26	6	0	2	10	32	0	0	0	195	252	286	537	90	250	22	7	245	52	-8	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.7
2026	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	24	22	5	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	227	292	273	564	45	304	21	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	17	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	153	145	32	4	1	0	8	39	0	6	1	221	261	262	524	41	302	25	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	17	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	—	153	140	40	6	1	0	13	27	0	6	1	286	346	343	689	57	354	18	8	315	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	221	199	40	8	2	1	15	77	3	1	1	201	267	276	544	75	317	35	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	221	191	50	11	3	1	23	54	3	1	1	262	350	366	717	105	355	24	10	321	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	242	56	12	4	8	17	47	8	7	0	231	303	413	717	182	254	17	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	232	69	16	5	10	27	33	8	7	0	297	390	539	928	241	309	12	10	403	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	335	312	63	12	3	8	19	78	2	2	0	202	252	337	589	135	241	23	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	335	300	71	16	3	9	31	56	2	2	0	237	312	400	712	163	262	17	9	317	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	489	448	99	22	6	5	31	106	6	9	2	221	280	330	611	109	277	22	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	489	439	119	24	9	5	40	76	6	9	2	271	340	401	741	130	317	16	8	330	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	508	457	129	32	12	6	43	85	2	19	4	282	347	444	791	162	332	17	8	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	508	431	137	34	13	9	69	68	2	19	4	318	414	520	934	202	357	13	14	406	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	575	514	126	23	9	18	50	110	3	7	3	245	316	430	746	185	275	19	9	324	106	+4	+0	+8	-6	+12	1.9
2016	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	575	506	124	24	8	18	58	107	3	7	3	245	326	431	757	186	273	19	10	332	106	+4	+0	+8	-6	+12	1.9
2017	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	568	513	124	32	2	19	45	114	6	6	1	242	310	423	733	181	274	20	8	323	105	+3	+1	+5	-6	+12	1.5
2017	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	568	511	124	32	2	19	47	114	6	6	1	243	314	425	738	182	276	20	8	326	105	+3	+1	+5	-6	+12	1.5
2018	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	611	534	119	30	4	20	69	96	5	4	5	223	317	406	724	184	235	16	11	322	104	+3	-1	+5	-7	+13	1.3
2018	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	611	532	119	30	4	20	71	96	5	4	5	224	321	408	729	184	236	16	12	325	104	+3	-1	+5	-7	+13	1.3
2019	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	596	524	132	32	0	36	60	99	8	1	5	252	338	519	857	267	244	17	10	371	137	+26	-2	+4	-6	+13	3.6
2019	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	596	524	132	32	0	36	60	99	8	1	5	252	338	519	857	267	244	17	10	372	137	+26	-2	+4	-6	+13	3.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	196	171	39	9	0	9	22	36	2	3	0	228	323	439	762	211	236	18	11	337	114	+3	+1	+1	-2	+4	0.7
2020	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	196	171	39	9	0	9	22	36	2	3	0	228	323	439	762	211	236	18	11	337	114	+3	+1	+1	-2	+4	0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	490	429	90	21	4	19	51	96	6	10	0	210	302	410	713	200	223	20	10	315	99	-0	+2	+5	-5	+11	1.2
2021	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	490	426	90	21	4	19	54	96	6	10	0	211	309	413	722	202	225	20	11	320	99	-0	+2	+5	-5	+11	1.2
2022	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	446	389	88	18	1	9	48	66	5	3	2	226	319	347	666	121	248	15	11	302	91	-5	-0	+6	-5	+10	0.6
2022	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	446	388	88	18	1	9	49	66	5	3	2	227	321	348	669	121	249	15	11	304	91	-5	-0	+6	-5	+10	0.6
2023	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	491	438	114	22	2	24	45	106	4	1	1	260	335	484	819	224	288	22	9	357	128	+16	-0	+2	-5	+11	2.3
2023	30	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	491	438	114	22	2	24	45	106	4	1	1	260	335	484	819	224	288	22	9	357	128	+16	-0	+2	-5	+11	2.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	399	369	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	252	303	379	682	127	299	20	6	304	92	-4	+0	+1	-4	+9	0.2
2024	31	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	399	368	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	253	303	380	683	128	300	20	6	304	92	-4	+0	+1	-4	+9	0.2
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	420	89	19	0	17	45	93	4	3	0	212	294	379	673	167	229	20	9	300	89	-6	+1	-3	-5	+10	-0.3
2025	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	417	90	19	0	18	48	93	4	3	0	216	303	391	694	175	232	20	10	309	89	-6	+1	-3	-5	+10	-0.3
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	155	31	7	0	2	12	37	0	1	0	200	257	284	541	84	246	22	7	247	54	-9	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.7
2026	33	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	169	153	33	8	0	2	14	36	0	1	0	216	281	307	589	92	265	21	8	266	54	-9	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.7
2010	17	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	153	144	32	4	1	0	8	39	0	6	1	222	261	264	525	42	305	25	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	221	201	40	8	2	1	15	77	3	1	1	199	267	274	541	75	303	35	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	242	56	12	4	8	17	47	8	7	0	231	303	413	717	182	247	17	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	335	311	63	12	3	8	19	78	2	2	0	203	252	338	590	135	240	23	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	489	449	99	22	6	5	31	106	6	9	2	220	280	330	610	109	273	22	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	508	458	129	32	12	6	43	85	2	19	4	282	347	443	790	162	328	17	8	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	575	517	126	23	9	18	50	110	3	7	3	244	316	427	743	184	272	19	9	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	568	512	124	32	2	19	45	114	6	6	1	242	310	424	734	182	276	20	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	611	532	119	30	4	20	69	96	5	4	5	224	317	408	725	184	236	16	11	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	596	523	132	32	0	36	60	99	8	1	5	252	338	520	858	268	244	17	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	196	170	39	9	0	9	22	36	2	3	0	229	323	441	764	212	236	18	11	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	490	430	90	21	4	19	51	96	6	10	0	209	302	409	712	200	225	20	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	446	390	88	18	1	9	48	66	5	3	2	226	319	346	665	121	249	15	11	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	491	439	114	22	2	24	45	106	4	1	1	260	335	483	818	223	288	22	9	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	399	369	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	252	303	379	682	127	300	20	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	422	89	19	0	17	45	93	4	3	0	211	294	377	671	166	232	20	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	155	31	7	0	2	12	37	0	1	0	200	257	284	541	84	258	22	7	247	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	399	369	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	252	303	379	682	127	300	20	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	422	89	19	0	17	45	93	4	3	0	211	294	377	671	166	232	20	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	155	31	7	0	2	12	37	0	1	0	200	257	284	541	84	258	22	7	247	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	302	272	62	13	1	9	25	62	2	3	1	227	296	381	677	154	259	21	8	302	90	-4	+0	+3	-3	+7	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	193	174	40	9	0	6	16	40	1	2	1	232	301	388	689	155	268	21	8	306	90	-2	+0	+2	-2	+4	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	151	137	29	6	0	4	12	32	1	0	0	215	283	355	638	140	248	21	8	286	79	-4	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	151	137	30	7	0	4	12	32	1	0	0	220	287	361	648	141	256	21	8	290	79	-4	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5014	4440	1039	238	16	185	483	943	49	38	16	234	316	420	736	186	255	19	10	326	97	+38	+1	+29	-55	+109	12.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	135	31	2	24	63	122	6	5	2	234	316	420	736	186	255	19	10	326	97	+5	+0	+4	-7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7334	6570	1532	338	51	219	630	1437	71	86	26	233	307	400	707	167	264	20	9	312	97	+36	+1	+31	-57	+113	12.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	136	30	5	19	56	127	6	8	2	234	307	400	708	167	265	20	9	312	97	+4	+0	+4	-7	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 24 PAwOBA .321 → .260 (−61)K% 16.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	8.12%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.41%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.942	25.77%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.942	4.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .321 → .260; ISO .048 → .038; BABIP .353 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARochester Red Wings · 128 PAwOBA .355 → .344 (−11)K% 10.9% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.94%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	13.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.72%	÷0.968	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷0.953	×0.930	×1.016	×1.050	21.69%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷1.224	×0.830	×1.016	×1.050	3.01%
Triples /BIP	6.25%	÷0.971	×0.970	×1.016	×1.050	6.66%
Home runs /BIP	1.04%	÷0.951	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.97%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 90, 2B 145, 3B 94, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .355 → .344; ISO .173 → .175; BABIP .309 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 482 PAwOBA .404 → .352 (−51)K% 13.1% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.07%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	16.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.07%	÷1.059	×0.680	—	×1.042	8.74%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.36%
Singles /BIP	22.38%	÷0.980	×0.920	×0.963	×1.042	21.09%
Doubles /BIP	9.30%	÷0.999	×0.910	×0.963	×1.042	8.50%
Triples /BIP	3.78%	÷1.020	×0.880	×0.963	×1.042	3.27%
Home runs /BIP	2.62%	÷1.232	×0.800	—	×1.042	1.77%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 96, 2B 100, 3B 104, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .404 → .352; ISO .209 → .180; BABIP .359 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 26 PAwOBA .284 → .237 (−47)K% 19.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.23%	÷0.984	×1.420	—	—	27.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.072	×0.750	—	×1.012	5.45%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷1.040	×0.920	—	×1.012	18.85%
Doubles /BIP	10.53%	÷0.962	×0.960	—	×1.012	10.63%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.106	×0.880	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 97, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .284 → .237; ISO .083 → .077; BABIP .316 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 407 PAwOBA .318 → .268 (−49)K% 15.2% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.23%	÷1.002	×1.420	—	—	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.35%	÷1.018	×0.750	—	×1.027	6.32%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	1.17%
Singles /BIP	21.52%	÷1.033	×0.920	×0.969	×1.027	19.08%
Doubles /BIP	6.62%	÷1.011	×0.960	×0.969	×1.027	6.26%
Triples /BIP	1.99%	÷0.929	×0.810	×0.969	×1.027	1.72%
Home runs /BIP	1.66%	÷0.995	×0.880	—	×1.027	1.50%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 102, 3B 86, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .318 → .268; ISO .129 → .113; BABIP .304 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 263 PAwOBA .317 → .258 (−59)K% 16.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.35%	÷0.954	×1.360	—	—	23.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.75%	÷1.074	×0.690	—	×1.030	5.79%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.61%
Singles /BIP	17.10%	÷0.928	×0.920	×0.977	×1.030	17.04%
Doubles /BIP	5.70%	÷0.968	×0.830	×0.977	×1.030	4.92%
Triples /BIP	1.55%	÷1.023	×0.910	×0.977	×1.030	1.39%
Home runs /BIP	4.66%	÷1.132	×0.800	—	×1.030	3.39%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 86, 2B 94, 3B 105, K 91, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .317 → .258; ISO .186 → .140; BABIP .254 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 ROKElizabethton Twins · 269 PAwOBA .396 → .304 (−91)K% 12.3% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.27%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	17.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.04%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×1.008	6.47%
HBP% /PA	2.97%	—	×0.740	—	×1.008	2.22%
Singles /BIP	19.10%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.997	×1.008	16.11%
Doubles /BIP	8.04%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.997	×1.008	5.98%
Triples /BIP	2.51%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.997	×1.008	1.87%
Home runs /BIP	5.03%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.008	4.05%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .396 → .304; ISO .241 → .187; BABIP .309 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 ROKElizabethton Twins · 221 PAwOBA .316 → .238 (−78)K% 24.4% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.43%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	34.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.41%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×1.022	6.81%
HBP% /PA	1.36%	—	×0.740	—	×1.022	1.03%
Singles /BIP	25.55%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.031	×1.022	22.63%
Doubles /BIP	8.03%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.031	×1.022	6.27%
Triples /BIP	2.19%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.031	×1.022	1.71%
Home runs /BIP	0.73%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.022	0.60%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .316 → .238; ISO .105 → .076; BABIP .355 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Josh Reddicklast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,879 PA	7.3	4,879	146	61	262	321	426	-52	-8	13.1	13.0
/162	664	20	8	-7.1	-1.1	1.8	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	7.8	5,207	191	40	235	312	420	-56	+26	12.0	11.8
/162	664	24	5	-7.1	+3.3	1.5	pk7: 12
#2Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	5.6	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
/162	664	35	4	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4Michael Tucker'95-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,686 PA	7.1	4,686	125	114	246*	326*	410*	-44	+9	9.4	9.1
/162	664	18	16	-6.3	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 9
#5Jim Spencer'68-'82 * career totals — 15 seasons, 5,409 PA	8.1	5,409	146	11	250*	308*	424*	-101	+13	6.2	7.0
/162	664	18	1	-12.4	+1.6	0.8	pk7: 8
#6Franklin Stubbs'84-'95 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,899 PA	4.4	2,899	104	74	229*	301*	428*	-43	+18	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	17	-9.8	+4.2	1.4	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Max Kepler (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	225/294/377	152	259	6	2	21%	8%	90	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Martini 2024 · MLB	34	45→55	49→50	43→45	49	227/309/381	154	279	17	3	24%	9%	96	+1.0	217/296/357	140	263	15	3	23%	8%	86	+0.3	204/286/329	125	245	13	1	22%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Don Kelly 2014 · MLB	34	45→55	45	51→55	55	222/297/339	117	240	13	9	14%	9%	82	-0.0	216/292/302	86	254	7	10	17%	9%	71	-0.8	191/261/233	42	239	1	9	19%	8%	43	-1.1
✕Brian Burgamy 2015 · AAA	34	46→47	53→50	46→50	50	238/306/407	169	279	21	7	23%	9%	101	+1.4	225/293/352	127	292	13	7	26%	8%	83	+0.1	217/288/324	107	289	10	6	27%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Jason Krizan 2022 · AAA	33	50→57	47→50	48→45	48	247/294/382	135	274	14	4	16%	6%	90	+0.6	231/278/375	144	267	15	5	19%	6%	82	+0.0	213/259/370	157	241	15	1	19%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Chad Huffman 2018 · MLB	33	43→52	48→50	48→45	48	219/299/368	149	264	15	8	23%	8%	90	+0.6	223/295/372	149	284	17	6	27%	7%	88	+0.5	214/284/365	151	271	19	0	28%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Andy Tracy 2009 · AAA	35	43→45	51→55	44→45	48	223/289/384	161	263	20	5	24%	8%	89	+0.5	220/289/394	174	266	22	6	26%	8%	92	+0.7	209/284/386	177	250	23	5	27%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Felix Perez 2019 · AAA	34	46→54	50→60	43→50	43	236/290/387	150	283	18	7	24%	6%	90	+0.6	231/285/424	193	262	26	5	23%	6%	97	+1.1	216/269/426	210	229	30	0	22%	5%	93	+0.6
✕Mario Valdez 2009 · AAA	34	50	47→50	47→40	55	249/320/385	136	268	15	4	14%	9%	101	+1.4	255/319/393	138	277	14	5	13%	8%	102	+1.5	277/332/409	132	308	13	2	14%	7%	111	+0.9
✕Chris Richard 2008 · AAA	34	44→52	50→55	48→50	45	227/297/385	158	277	18	10	25%	7%	93	+0.8	224/289/400	176	273	21	6	26%	7%	93	+0.8	217/282/395	177	260	22	2	25%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Preston Tucker 2023 · AAA	33	45→47	45→55	48→40	46	226/286/349	122	264	13	6	20%	6%	80	-0.2	237/317/389	152	287	16	7	22%	9%	101	+1.4	236/340/418	182	283	18	2	22%	12%	113	+0.9
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2022 · MLB	34	49→54	53→55	46→45	46	254/308/422	168	300	23	7	24%	7%	105	+1.7	249/297/389	140	311	16	7	24%	6%	93	+0.8	266/311/405	139	325	16	4	23%	6%	103	+0.8
✕Ricky Ledee 2007 · MLB	33	48→47	50→60	50	50	243/308/400	157	282	17	6	20%	8%	99	+1.3	222/277/357	135	272	16	6	24%	7%	78	-0.3	203/253/318	116	249	15	2	25%	6%	60	-1.0
✕Kevin Barker 2009 · MLB	34	42→45	50→55	43→40	46	218/280/369	151	266	19	3	26%	8%	82	+0.0	234/297/396	162	273	18	3	21%	8%	95	+1.0	244/309/410	165	282	17	1	20%	8%	102	+1.0
✕Bill Selby 2005 · MLB	35	43→47	48→55	48→40	50	220/283/365	145	249	16	7	20%	8%	82	+0.0	246/312/426	180	251	22	6	13%	8%	107	+1.9	243/310/428	185	241	23	3	11%	7%	107	+1.4
✕Josh Reddick 2021 · MLB	34	50→60	48→60	48→50	52	252/311/392	140	275	16	7	15%	8%	99	+1.2	238/291/366	128	286	13	6	21%	7%	85	+0.2	226/266/329	103	281	10	0	23%	5%	66	-0.5
✕Andy Abad 2008 · AAA	35	48	48→50	44→45	46	242/284/379	137	258	17	7	15%	5%	86	+0.3	224/275/334	110	264	11	9	19%	6%	72	-0.7	169/227/206	37	212	0	0	19%	5%	23	-0.9
✕Adonis García 2019 · MLB	34	51→54	48→50	49→50	44	254/296/393	138	277	16	9	16%	4%	93	+0.8	214/271/329	115	258	13	14	22%	6%	70	-0.9	181/235/262	81	221	9	16	22%	4%	39	-1.3
✕Luis Alfonso Garcia 2013 · AAA	34	49→54	49→55	46→40	50	247/311/388	141	281	17	5	19%	8%	98	+1.2	236/298/395	159	269	21	3	21%	8%	95	+1.0	226/291/374	148	253	21	1	20%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Omar Ramirez 2006 · AAA	35	47	49→50	51→50	50	239/296/387	148	259	17	11	16%	7%	92	+0.7	244/302/370	126	272	13	11	15%	7%	91	+0.6	255/315/359	104	282	9	10	13%	7%	90	+0.2
✕Pedro Swann 2006 · MLB	35	44	49→50	53→45	40	228/279/381	153	275	17	7	24%	4%	84	+0.2	233/280/364	131	292	12	11	24%	5%	80	-0.1	234/279/355	121	296	10	12	24%	5%	78	-0.1

Max Kepler

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps