Max Kepler — OGILVIE

Max KeplerLF Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 33 L/L 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 361 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 8084vR 85

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .293 / .393

PA361

HR12

K%21

BB%8

BABIP253

ISO169

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

5410.5%

xwOBA

590.318

POWER50

Barrel%

589.4

Avg EV

6289.9

Bat Spd

5071.3

EYE53

Chase%

5430.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

2026.0

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 873 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

158

715

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

297

304

—

ISO

137

157

▶R

BABIP

296

256

◀L

22.8%

19.2%

▶▶R

BB%

5.1%

8.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$1M
Totals		$2M		$0.8M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2010	17	ROK	GCL Twins	—	153	145	31	4	1	0	8	39	0	6	1	214	255	255	510	41	292	25	5	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	17	ROK	GCL Twins	—	153	140	40	6	1	0	13	27	0	6	1	286	346	343	689	57	354	18	8	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	221	199	39	8	2	1	15	77	3	1	1	196	263	271	534	75	309	35	7	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	221	191	50	11	3	1	23	54	3	1	1	262	350	366	717	105	355	24	10	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	242	56	12	4	8	17	47	8	7	0	231	303	413	717	182	254	17	6	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	232	69	16	5	10	27	33	8	7	0	297	390	539	928	241	309	12	10	403	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	2 teams	—	335	313	64	12	3	7	18	82	2	2	0	204	252	329	581	125	252	24	5	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	2 teams	—	335	300	71	16	3	9	31	56	2	2	0	237	312	400	712	163	262	17	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	2 teams	—	489	450	95	21	6	5	29	106	6	9	2	211	268	318	586	107	264	22	6	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	2 teams	—	489	439	119	24	9	5	40	76	6	9	2	271	340	401	741	130	317	16	8	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	2 teams	—	508	460	127	30	12	6	40	91	2	19	4	276	337	433	769	157	329	18	8	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	2 teams	—	508	431	137	34	13	9	69	68	2	19	4	318	414	520	934	202	357	13	14	406	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB	2 teams	—	575	511	124	22	8	18	53	110	3	7	3	243	317	423	740	180	272	19	9	319	102	+1	+0	+8	-6	+16	2.0
2016	23	MLB	2 teams	—	575	506	124	24	8	18	58	107	3	7	3	245	326	431	757	186	273	19	10	332	112	+8	+0	+8	-6	+16	2.7
2017	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	568	511	124	32	2	19	47	114	6	6	1	243	314	425	738	182	276	20	8	319	102	+2	+1	+5	-6	+16	1.7
2017	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	568	511	124	32	2	19	47	114	6	6	1	243	314	425	738	182	276	20	8	326	108	+5	+1	+5	-6	+16	2.1
2018	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	611	532	119	30	4	20	71	96	5	4	5	224	321	408	729	184	236	16	12	318	102	+1	-1	+5	-7	+17	1.6
2018	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	611	532	119	30	4	20	71	96	5	4	5	224	321	408	729	184	236	16	12	325	107	+5	-1	+5	-7	+17	1.9
2019	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	596	524	132	32	0	36	60	99	8	1	5	252	338	519	857	267	244	17	10	366	138	+26	-2	+4	-6	+17	3.9
2019	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	596	524	132	32	0	36	60	99	8	1	5	252	338	519	857	267	244	17	10	372	143	+29	-2	+4	-6	+17	4.2
2020	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	196	171	39	9	0	9	22	36	2	3	0	228	323	439	762	211	236	18	11	332	113	+3	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.8
2020	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	196	171	39	9	0	9	22	36	2	3	0	228	323	439	762	211	236	18	11	337	116	+4	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.9
2021	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	490	426	90	21	4	19	54	96	6	10	0	211	309	413	722	202	225	20	11	311	96	-2	+2	+5	-5	+14	1.4
2021	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	490	426	90	21	4	19	54	96	6	10	0	211	309	413	722	202	225	20	11	320	103	+2	+2	+5	-5	+14	1.7
2022	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	446	388	88	18	1	9	49	66	5	3	2	227	321	348	669	121	249	15	11	299	87	-7	-0	+6	-5	+13	0.7
2022	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	446	388	88	18	1	9	49	66	5	3	2	227	321	348	669	121	249	15	11	304	91	-5	-0	+6	-5	+13	1.0
2023	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	491	438	114	22	2	24	45	106	4	1	1	260	335	484	819	224	288	22	9	352	128	+15	-0	+2	-5	+14	2.6
2023	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	491	438	114	22	2	24	45	106	4	1	1	260	335	484	819	224	288	22	9	357	132	+18	-0	+2	-5	+14	2.8
2024	31	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	399	369	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	252	303	379	682	127	299	20	6	300	88	-6	+0	+1	-4	+11	0.3
2024	31	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	399	368	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	253	303	380	683	128	300	20	6	304	91	-4	+0	+1	-4	+11	0.4
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	417	87	18	0	17	48	93	4	3	0	209	296	374	670	165	225	20	10	296	84	-8	+1	-3	-5	+13	-0.2
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	417	90	19	0	18	48	93	4	3	0	216	303	391	694	175	232	20	10	309	94	-3	+1	-3	-5	+13	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	33	MLB	ARI	—	62	57	12	3	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	211	250	316	566	105	256	24	5	246	46	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
YTD	33	MLB	ARI	—	62	56	13	3	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	232	283	339	623	107	279	23	6	272	66	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
ROS	33	MLB	ARI	100%	361	326	73	17	1	12	29	75	3	3	1	224	293	393	686	169	255	21	8	307	93	-3	+0	+4	-4	+10	0.8
ROS	33	MLB	ARI	100%	361	326	75	18	1	12	29	75	3	3	1	230	299	402	701	172	258	21	8	304	91	-4	+0	+4	-4	+10	0.7
FULL	33	MLB	ARI	—	423	383	87	21	1	13	32	90	3	4	1	227	292	389	681	162	261	21	8	295	84	-8	+0	+4	-5	+12	0.4
TOT	33	MLB	ARI	—	423	383	85	20	1	13	32	90	3	4	1	222	287	381	668	159	254	21	8	298	86	-7	+0	+4	-5	+12	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	ARI	100%	377	341	74	17	1	12	30	81	3	2	1	217	286	378	664	161	247	21	8	296	85	-7	+0	-1	-4	+11	-0.1
2028	35	MLB	ARI	100%	324	293	61	13	1	10	25	72	3	1	0	208	277	362	639	154	237	22	8	283	75	-9	+0	-2	-3	+9	-0.5
2027	34	MLB	ARI	100%	377	341	74	17	1	12	30	81	3	2	1	217	286	378	664	161	249	21	8	293	82	-8	+0	-1	-4	+11	-0.2
2028	35	MLB	ARI	100%	324	293	61	13	1	10	25	72	3	1	0	208	277	362	639	154	239	22	8	280	73	-10	+0	-2	-3	+9	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5780	5131	1192	272	19	213	544	1107	57	44	18	232	313	417	730	185	254	19	9	322	105	+31	+2	+34	-63	+164	17.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	134	31	2	24	61	124	6	5	2	232	312	418	730	185	253	19	9	322	105	+4	+0	+4	-7	+18	1.9
Career	—			—	7883	7056	1630	359	53	240	682	1566	78	89	27	231	306	399	705	168	262	20	9	307	93	-60	+7	+35	-84	+223	12.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	135	30	4	20	56	129	6	7	2	232	306	400	706	168	263	20	9	307	93	-5	+1	+3	-7	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2010	17	ROK	GCL Twins	—	153	140	40	6	1	0	13	27	0	6	1	286	346	343	689	57	354	18	8	315	100	-0	+1	—	—	+4	0.5
2011	18	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	221	191	50	11	3	1	23	54	3	1	1	262	350	366	717	105	355	24	10	321	104	+1	-0	—	—	+6	0.7
2012	19	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	232	69	16	5	10	27	33	8	7	0	297	390	539	928	241	309	12	10	403	167	+20	+1	—	—	+8	3.0
2013	20	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	263	236	56	11	3	9	24	43	2	2	0	237	313	424	737	186	254	16	9	326	108	+2	+0	—	—	+7	1.0
2013	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	72	64	15	5	0	0	7	13	0	0	0	234	310	312	622	78	288	18	10	283	75	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2014	21	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	407	364	96	20	6	5	34	62	5	6	2	264	335	393	728	129	304	15	8	324	106	+3	+0	—	—	+12	1.5
2014	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	82	75	23	4	3	0	6	14	1	3	0	307	366	440	806	133	377	17	7	358	132	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2015	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	482	407	131	32	13	9	67	63	2	18	4	322	420	531	951	209	359	13	14	412	174	+40	+2	—	—	+14	5.7
2015	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	26	24	6	2	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	250	308	333	641	83	316	19	8	292	81	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2016	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	447	396	93	20	2	17	42	93	3	6	2	235	313	424	737	189	261	21	9	324	106	+3	+0	+8	-6	+13	1.8
2016	23	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	128	110	31	4	6	1	16	14	0	1	1	282	373	455	828	173	309	11	12	361	134	+5	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2017	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	568	511	124	32	2	19	47	114	6	6	1	243	314	425	738	182	276	20	8	326	108	+5	+1	+5	-6	+16	2.1
2018	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	611	532	119	30	4	20	71	96	5	4	5	224	321	408	729	184	236	16	12	325	107	+5	-1	+5	-7	+17	1.9
2019	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	596	524	132	32	0	36	60	99	8	1	5	252	338	519	857	267	244	17	10	372	143	+29	-2	+4	-6	+17	4.2
2020	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	196	171	39	9	0	9	22	36	2	3	0	228	323	439	762	211	236	18	11	337	116	+4	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.9
2021	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	490	426	90	21	4	19	54	96	6	10	0	211	309	413	722	202	225	20	11	320	103	+2	+2	+5	-5	+14	1.7
2022	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	446	388	88	18	1	9	49	66	5	3	2	227	321	348	669	121	249	15	11	304	91	-5	-0	+6	-5	+13	1.0
2023	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	491	438	114	22	2	24	45	106	4	1	1	260	335	484	819	224	288	22	9	357	132	+18	-0	+2	-5	+14	2.8
2024	31	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	399	368	93	21	1	8	22	80	5	1	0	253	303	380	683	128	300	20	6	304	91	-4	+0	+1	-4	+11	0.4
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	474	417	90	19	0	18	48	93	4	3	0	216	303	391	694	175	232	20	10	309	94	-3	+1	-3	-5	+13	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4718	4171	982	224	16	179	460	879	48	38	16	235	318	426	744	190	255	19	10	329	110	+53	+1	+33	-52	+134	17.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Josh Reddicklast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,879 PA	13	4,879	146	61	262	321	426	-52	-8	13.1	13.0
	/162	664	20	8	262	321	426	-7.1	-1.1	1.8	pk7: 13
#2Eric Hinskelast yr '13 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,310 PA	12	4,310	137	61	249	332	430	-34	-33	13.0	12.9
	/162	664	21	9	249	332	430	-5.2	-5.1	2.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	5,842	216	45	233	310	419	-63	+26	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	25	5	233	310	419	-7.1	+2.9	1.4	pk7: 12
#3Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	11	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
	/162	664	35	4	227	287	459	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#4Marwin Gonzalezlast yr '22 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,882 PA	11	3,882	107	44	252	310	399	-10	+17	10.9	10.9
	/162	664	18	8	252	310	399	-1.6	+2.8	1.9	pk7: 11
#5Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#6Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	11	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
	/162	664	19	6	262	304	417	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Max Kepler (OGILVIE)	33	53→50	50	50	53	222/287/381	159	254	13	4	21%	8%	86	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Krizan 2022 · AAA	33	52→56	50→55	48→45	49	260/310/418	158	284	17	4	16%	7%	105	+2.1	240/288/399	159	279	17	5	20%	6%	91	+1.1	224/275/397	173	258	18	1	20%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Preston Tucker 2023 · AAA	33	47→46	48→55	48→40	47	237/296/376	140	273	15	6	20%	6%	89	+0.9	242/326/401	159	297	17	7	23%	10%	108	+2.3	242/359/428	186	300	19	2	24%	13%	124	+1.4
✕Michael Ryan 2010 · AAA	33	47→49	51→50	45→30	43	240/282/399	158	281	19	4	22%	6%	89	+0.9	225/266/344	119	268	10	6	19%	5%	66	-0.6	211/248/314	103	252	5	3	18%	5%	49	-1.1
✕Chad Huffman 2018 · MLB	33	44→52	50→55	48→45	48	224/305/381	157	268	17	8	23%	8%	95	+1.4	231/302/392	161	291	19	6	26%	7%	95	+1.4	229/303/402	173	286	23	0	27%	7%	95	+0.8
✕Andy Abad 2006 · MLB	33	49→51	53→50	40→45	47	254/300/425	171	273	21	6	16%	6%	103	+1.9	246/293/383	137	268	17	6	15%	5%	89	+0.9	241/289/355	114	263	14	4	14%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Mitch Moreland 2019 · MLB	33	45→55	54→60	47→40	53	236/314/420	184	271	21	3	22%	10%	108	+2.3	246/320/467	221	276	28	3	22%	10%	123	+3.3	244/316/484	240	265	33	1	22%	9%	122	+1.3
✕Greg Dobbs 2011 · MLB	33	45→55	50→55	48→50	47	230/282/382	152	260	18	8	20%	7%	84	+0.6	262/307/380	118	307	12	5	18%	6%	93	+1.3	272/318/375	103	318	9	3	17%	6%	87	+0.5
✕Aaron Guiel 2006 · MLB	33	44→53	54→60	44→45	47	233/306/416	184	264	22	6	22%	7%	104	+2.0	233/319/423	190	270	23	6	23%	9%	111	+2.5	221/327/429	208	248	25	3	22%	10%	115	+2.0
✕John Mabry 2004 · MLB	33	47	54→60	46→30	52	244/320/425	181	272	21	5	20%	9%	111	+2.5	251/319/424	173	298	21	3	22%	9%	111	+2.5	242/310/404	162	290	20	0	23%	9%	96	+0.6
✕Ricky Ledee 2007 · MLB	33	48→47	50→60	50	51	243/311/401	158	284	17	6	20%	8%	102	+1.8	228/286/367	139	280	16	6	24%	7%	82	+0.5	215/269/337	122	265	15	2	25%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Jason Kipnis 2020 · MLB	33	45→55	51→55	48→55	52	233/301/395	162	258	19	8	19%	8%	95	+1.4	237/314/402	165	291	19	7	24%	9%	103	+1.9	229/321/397	167	304	19	3	29%	10%	101	+0.6
✕Garrett Jones 2014 · MLB	33	48→53	57→60	49→50	48	251/307/455	204	285	24	5	22%	7%	114	+2.7	245/303/417	172	291	19	3	22%	8%	102	+1.8	244/304/409	165	291	18	0	22%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Chris Richard 2007 · AAA	33	44→53	51→60	46→50	48	228/297/391	163	273	19	8	24%	8%	93	+1.3	236/305/415	179	290	21	8	26%	7%	103	+1.9	232/303/420	188	281	23	6	26%	7%	101	+1.4
✕Jeff Liefer 2008 · MLB	33	49→52	54→60	48→30	44	253/300/432	179	295	21	8	22%	6%	105	+2.1	220/276/346	126	302	13	9	30%	7%	72	-0.2	195/253/303	108	270	10	3	30%	7%	51	-0.4
✕Kevin Pillar 2022 · MLB	33	47→57	53→55	47→55	42	247/291/422	175	275	21	10	20%	4%	98	+1.6	239/290/422	183	271	23	11	21%	5%	98	+1.6	233/285/412	180	263	22	15	21%	5%	92	+0.5
●Cory Aldridge 2012 · AAA	33	46→50	51→55	46→45	39	234/279/395	161	313	19	6	31%	6%	86	+0.8	212/271/379	167	311	24	8	38%	7%	79	+0.3	214/280/387	173	293	27	5	36%	8%	84	+0.3
✕Matt McBride 2019 · MLB	34	40→50	53→55	42→40	46	215/275/393	179	247	21	4	23%	7%	85	+0.7	222/273/412	190	263	26	7	26%	6%	89	+1.0	191/231/411	221	195	37	0	27%	4%	68	-0.1
●Kevin Barker 2008 · MLB	33	46→47	50→55	45→40	47	234/299/390	156	292	18	4	26%	8%	93	+1.3	233/298/401	168	277	21	3	23%	8%	96	+1.5	258/324/436	178	298	19	1	20%	8%	115	+1.8
✕Graham Koonce 2007 · AAA	32	40→41	55	44→30	47	218/289/396	178	266	23	4	28%	8%	92	+1.2	215/286/389	174	275	22	6	29%	8%	89	+0.9	184/266/367	183	225	24	0	30%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Damon Hollins 2008 · MLB	34	46→50	54→55	45	47	240/290/418	177	260	22	9	18%	6%	97	+1.5	211/278/362	151	254	18	6	24%	8%	78	+0.2	180/253/319	139	213	18	2	25%	8%	52	-1.1