Jay Bruce

PosRF

B/TL/L

Born1987-04-03

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2019	32	MLBPHI	333	.216/.264/.523	26	1	106	0.5
2020	33	MLBPHI	103	.198/.252/.469	6	0	87	-0.1
2021	34	MLBNYY	39	.118/.231/.235	1	0	34	-0.4
2022	35	No MLB games played
2023	36	No MLB games played
2024	37	No MLB games played
2025	38	No MLB games played
2026	39	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2021

Barrel%72

xwOBA70

Avg EV54

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	217	192	51	11	2	9	22	53	1	6	8	266	344	484	829	219	318	24	10	361	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A	Dayton Dragons	—	498	444	129	42	5	16	44	106	4	19	9	291	360	516	876	225	345	21	9	379	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	204	187	57	12	2	11	15	48	1	2	2	305	360	567	926	262	357	24	7	400	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	74	66	22	7	1	4	8	20	0	2	1	333	405	652	1.057	318	429	27	11	453	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	298	268	87	27	5	11	24	67	2	4	4	325	384	586	970	261	392	22	8	415	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	452	413	105	17	1	21	33	110	4	4	6	254	316	453	768	199	296	24	7	338	114	+7	-2	-5	-7	+10	0.4
2008	21	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	201	184	67	9	5	10	12	45	0	8	1	364	403	630	1.033	266	425	22	6	436	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	387	345	77	15	2	22	38	75	2	3	3	223	304	470	773	246	221	19	10	338	112	+6	-1	+5	-4	+8	1.4
2009	22	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	20	18	5	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	0	278	350	278	628		333	15	10	296	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	573	509	143	23	5	25	58	136	1	5	4	281	356	493	849	212	334	24	10	370	127	+18	-1	+13	-6	+12	3.8
2011	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	664	585	150	27	2	32	71	158	5	8	7	256	342	474	815	217	297	24	11	359	113	+10	-1	-7	-7	+14	0.9
2012	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	633	560	141	35	5	34	62	155	4	9	3	252	331	514	845	262	283	24	10	364	118	+14	+1	-12	-7	+14	1.0
2013	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	697	626	164	43	1	30	63	185	2	7	3	262	331	478	809	216	322	27	9	353	111	+9	+0	+1	-7	+15	1.9
2014	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	545	493	107	21	1	18	44	149	2	12	3	217	284	373	657	156	269	27	8	291	75	-16	+1	-10	-6	+12	-1.9
2015	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	649	580	131	35	4	26	58	145	2	9	5	226	298	434	733	209	251	22	9	319	92	-7	-0	-10	-7	+14	-1.0
2016	29	MLB	New York Mets	—	589	539	135	27	6	33	44	126	3	4	2	250	311	506	817	256	266	21	7	354	125	+17	+0	-6	-6	+13	1.8
2017	30	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	617	555	141	29	2	36	57	139	2	1	1	254	326	508	834	254	274	23	9	362	131	+23	-0	-5	-7	+13	2.5
2018	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	361	319	71	18	1	9	41	75	0	2	3	223	311	370	681	147	263	21	11	307	94	-3	-1	-7	-4	+8	-0.7
2018	31	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	27	25	9	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	360	407	520	927	160	444	22	7	411	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	333	310	67	17	0	26	19	82	1	1	0	216	264	523	786	306	200	25	6	335	106	+3	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.5
2020	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	103	96	19	4	2	6	7	24	0	0	0	198	252	469	721	271	197	23	7	311	87	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2021	34	MLB	New York Yankees	—	39	34	4	1	0	1	5	13	0	0	0	118	231	235	466	118	150	33	13	222	34	-3	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6642	5964	1455	312	32	319	600	1572	28	65	40	244	316	467	783	224	276	24	9	342	118	+139	-3	-45	-74	+144	16.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	217	200	38	8	1	6	14	76	1	6	8	190	247	330	577	140	262	35	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	498	459	114	35	5	13	29	144	4	19	9	248	299	431	730	183	319	29	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	204	192	52	10	2	9	10	58	1	2	2	271	310	484	795	214	338	28	5	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	74	68	19	6	1	3	6	24	0	2	1	279	338	529	867	250	405	32	8	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	298	275	77	25	4	9	17	95	2	4	4	280	327	498	825	218	375	32	6	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	452	414	105	17	1	21	32	110	4	4	6	254	313	452	765	198	296	24	7	337	114	+7	-2	-5	-7	+10	0.4
2008	21	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	201	190	65	8	5	9	6	54	0	8	1	342	362	579	941	237	407	27	3	404	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	387	347	77	15	2	22	36	75	2	3	3	222	299	467	766	245	221	19	9	334	112	+6	-1	+5	-4	+8	1.4
2009	22	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	20	19	5	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	263	300	263	563		326	20	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	573	514	141	23	5	23	53	136	1	5	4	274	343	473	816	198	334	24	9	356	127	+18	-1	+13	-6	+12	3.8
2011	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	664	599	148	27	2	30	57	158	5	8	7	247	318	449	767	202	297	24	9	335	113	+10	-1	-7	-7	+14	0.9
2012	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	633	571	139	36	5	31	51	155	4	9	3	243	310	487	797	243	283	24	8	343	118	+14	+1	-12	-7	+14	1.0
2013	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	697	640	163	44	1	28	50	185	2	7	3	255	311	458	769	203	322	27	7	333	111	+9	+0	+1	-7	+15	1.9
2014	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	545	498	106	21	1	17	39	149	2	12	3	213	273	361	634	149	269	27	7	279	75	-16	+1	-10	-6	+12	-1.9
2015	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	649	588	130	36	4	24	50	145	2	9	5	221	284	418	703	197	251	22	8	303	92	-7	-0	-10	-7	+14	-1.0
2016	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	589	546	139	29	6	33	37	126	3	4	2	255	305	511	816	256	266	21	6	353	125	+17	+0	-6	-6	+13	1.8
2017	30	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	617	555	141	29	2	36	57	139	2	1	1	254	326	508	834	254	274	23	9	362	131	+23	-0	-5	-7	+13	2.5
2018	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	361	323	73	19	1	9	37	75	0	2	3	226	306	375	680	149	263	21	10	307	94	-3	-1	-7	-4	+8	-0.7
2018	31	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	27	25	7	1	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	280	333	440	773	160	376	33	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	333	310	65	17	0	24	19	82	1	1	0	210	258	497	754	287	200	25	6	326	106	+3	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.5
2020	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	103	97	19	4	2	6	6	24	0	0	0	196	243	464	707	268	197	23	6	297	87	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2021	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	39	34	4	1	0	1	5	13	0	0	0	118	231	235	466	118	150	33	13	219	34	-3	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.4
2005	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	217	200	38	8	1	6	14	76	1	6	8	190	247	330	577	140	267	35	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	18	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	217	192	51	11	2	9	22	53	1	6	8	266	344	484	829	219	318	24	10	361	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	498	459	114	35	5	13	29	144	4	19	9	248	299	431	730	183	328	29	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	498	444	129	42	5	16	44	106	4	19	9	291	360	516	876	225	345	21	9	379	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	576	535	148	41	7	22	33	177	3	8	7	277	322	503	825	226	370	31	6	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	576	521	166	46	8	26	47	135	3	8	7	319	378	587	966	269	384	23	8	415	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	653	604	170	25	6	30	38	164	4	12	7	281	328	492	820	210	336	25	6	357	128	+22	-0	-5	-7	+14	2.4
2008	21	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	653	597	172	26	6	31	45	155	4	12	7	288	342	508	850	219	337	24	7	368	128	+22	-0	-5	-7	+14	2.4
2009	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	407	366	82	15	2	22	37	79	2	5	3	224	299	456	755	232	226	19	9	331	110	+5	-0	+5	-4	+9	1.4
2009	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	407	363	82	15	2	22	40	78	2	5	3	226	306	460	766	234	227	19	10	336	110	+5	-0	+5	-4	+9	1.4
2010	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	573	514	141	23	5	23	53	136	1	5	4	274	343	473	816	198	328	24	9	356	127	+18	-1	+13	-6	+12	3.8
2010	23	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	573	509	143	23	5	25	58	136	1	5	4	281	356	493	849	212	334	24	10	370	127	+18	-1	+13	-6	+12	3.8
2011	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	664	599	148	27	2	30	57	158	5	8	7	247	318	449	767	202	286	24	9	335	113	+10	-1	-7	-7	+14	0.9
2011	24	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	664	585	150	27	2	32	71	158	5	8	7	256	342	474	815	217	297	24	11	359	113	+10	-1	-7	-7	+14	0.9
2012	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	633	571	139	36	5	31	51	155	4	9	3	243	310	487	797	243	276	24	8	343	118	+14	+1	-12	-7	+14	1.0
2012	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	633	560	141	35	5	34	62	155	4	9	3	252	331	514	845	262	283	24	10	364	118	+14	+1	-12	-7	+14	1.0
2013	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	697	640	163	44	1	28	50	185	2	7	3	255	311	458	769	203	312	27	7	333	111	+9	+0	+1	-7	+15	1.9
2013	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	697	626	164	43	1	30	63	185	2	7	3	262	331	478	809	216	322	27	9	353	111	+9	+0	+1	-7	+15	1.9
2014	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	545	498	106	21	1	17	39	149	2	12	3	213	273	361	634	149	264	27	7	279	75	-16	+1	-10	-6	+12	-1.9
2014	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	545	493	107	21	1	18	44	149	2	12	3	217	284	373	657	156	269	27	8	291	75	-16	+1	-10	-6	+12	-1.9
2015	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	649	588	130	36	4	24	50	145	2	9	5	221	284	418	703	197	248	22	8	303	92	-7	-0	-10	-7	+14	-1.0
2015	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	649	580	131	35	4	26	58	145	2	9	5	226	298	434	733	209	251	22	9	319	92	-7	-0	-10	-7	+14	-1.0
2016	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	589	546	139	29	6	33	37	126	3	4	2	255	305	511	816	256	272	21	6	353	125	+17	+0	-6	-6	+13	1.8
2016	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	589	539	135	27	6	33	44	126	3	4	2	250	311	506	817	256	266	21	7	354	125	+17	+0	-6	-6	+13	1.8
2017	30	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	617	555	141	29	2	36	57	139	2	1	1	254	326	508	834	254	274	23	9	362	131	+23	-0	-5	-7	+13	2.5
2017	30	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	—	617	555	141	29	2	36	57	139	2	1	1	254	326	508	834	254	274	23	9	362	131	+23	-0	-5	-7	+13	2.5
2018	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	388	348	80	20	1	10	39	84	0	2	3	230	307	379	687	149	275	22	10	306	93	-3	-1	-7	-4	+8	-0.7
2018	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	388	344	80	19	1	10	43	81	0	2	3	233	318	381	699	148	276	21	11	315	93	-3	-1	-7	-4	+8	-0.7
2019	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	333	310	65	17	0	24	19	82	1	1	0	210	258	497	754	287	198	25	6	326	106	+3	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.5
2019	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	333	310	67	17	0	26	19	82	1	1	0	216	264	523	786	306	200	25	6	335	106	+3	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.5
2020	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	103	97	19	4	2	6	6	24	0	0	0	196	243	464	707	268	194	23	6	297	87	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2020	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	103	96	19	4	2	6	7	24	0	0	0	198	252	469	721	271	197	23	7	311	87	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2021	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	39	34	4	1	0	1	5	13	0	0	0	118	231	235	466	118	150	33	13	219	34	-3	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.4
2021	34	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	39	34	4	1	0	1	5	13	0	0	0	118	231	235	466	118	150	33	13	222	34	-3	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.4
2005	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	217	200	38	8	1	6	14	76	1	6	8	190	247	330	577	140	262	35	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	498	462	114	35	5	13	29	144	4	19	9	247	299	429	727	182	319	29	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	576	535	148	41	7	22	33	177	3	8	7	277	322	503	825	226	366	31	6	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	653	606	170	25	6	30	38	164	4	12	7	281	328	490	818	210	330	25	6	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	407	365	82	15	2	22	37	79	2	5	3	225	299	458	756	233	226	19	9	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	573	514	141	23	5	23	53	136	1	5	4	274	343	473	816	198	334	24	9	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	664	597	148	27	2	30	57	158	5	8	7	248	318	451	768	203	297	24	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	633	573	139	36	5	31	51	155	4	9	3	243	310	485	795	243	283	24	8	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	697	640	163	44	1	28	50	185	2	7	3	255	311	458	769	203	322	27	7	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	545	499	106	21	1	17	39	149	2	12	3	212	273	361	633	148	269	27	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	649	592	130	36	4	24	50	145	2	9	5	220	284	416	700	196	251	22	8	303	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	589	544	139	29	6	33	37	126	3	4	2	256	305	513	818	257	266	21	6	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	617	553	141	29	2	36	57	139	2	1	1	255	326	510	836	255	274	23	9	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	388	346	80	20	1	10	39	84	0	2	3	231	307	382	689	150	271	22	10	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	333	310	65	17	0	24	19	82	1	1	0	210	258	497	754	287	200	25	6	326	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	103	96	19	4	2	6	6	24	0	0	0	198	243	469	711	271	197	23	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	39	34	4	1	0	1	5	13	0	0	0	118	231	235	466	118	150	33	13	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6642	5964	1455	312	32	319	600	1572	28	65	40	244	316	467	783	224	276	24	9	342	110	+139	-3	-45	-74	+144	16.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	143	31	3	31	59	154	3	6	4	245	318	467	785	223	277	24	9	342	110	+14	-0	-4	-7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	8181	7464	1827	411	50	356	614	2036	36	108	65	245	305	456	762	212	286	25	8	330	110	+139	-3	-45	-74	+144	16.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	145	33	4	28	49	162	3	9	5	245	305	455	761	211	287	25	8	330	110	+14	-0	-4	-7	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 A+St. Lucie Mets · 27 PAwOBA .400 → .297 (−103)K% 22.2% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷0.967	×1.420	—	—	32.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷0.907	×0.750	—	×0.940	5.76%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.84%	÷1.022	×0.920	—	×0.940	31.18%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.964	×0.960	—	×0.940	4.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.074	×0.880	—	×0.940	4.05%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 93, BB 81 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .400 → .297; ISO .160 → .114; BABIP .444 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAALouisville Bats · 20 PAwOBA .289 → .264 (−25)K% 15.0% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.050	32.55%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .289 → .264; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAALouisville Bats · 201 PAwOBA .429 → .404 (−25)K% 22.4% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.39%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.98%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	2.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.94%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.002	×1.050	30.27%
Doubles /BIP	6.47%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.002	×1.050	5.65%
Triples /BIP	3.60%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.002	×1.050	3.67%
Home runs /BIP	7.19%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.050	6.35%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .429 → .404; ISO .266 → .246; BABIP .425 → .407. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 A+Sarasota Reds · 298 PAwOBA .407 → .351 (−56)K% 22.5% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.48%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	31.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.38%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.042	5.77%
HBP% /PA	0.67%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.65%
Singles /BIP	21.89%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.999	×1.042	20.96%
Doubles /BIP	13.43%	÷1.000	×0.960	×0.999	×1.042	13.42%
Triples /BIP	2.49%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.999	×1.042	2.10%
Home runs /BIP	5.47%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.042	5.02%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .407 → .351; ISO .261 → .224; BABIP .392 → .375. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAALouisville Bats · 204 PAwOBA .389 → .344 (−45)K% 23.5% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.86%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.97%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.48%
Singles /BIP	23.02%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.007	×1.050	22.64%
Doubles /BIP	8.63%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.007	×1.050	7.58%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.007	×1.050	1.48%
Home runs /BIP	7.91%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.050	6.98%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .389 → .344; ISO .262 → .228; BABIP .357 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 74 PAwOBA .441 → .376 (−65)K% 27.0% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.03%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	32.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.72%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.050	21.00%
Doubles /BIP	15.22%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.050	14.54%
Triples /BIP	2.17%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.050	2.01%
Home runs /BIP	8.70%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	7.30%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .441 → .376; ISO .318 → .269; BABIP .429 → .405. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 ADayton Dragons · 498 PAwOBA .370 → .311 (−59)K% 21.3% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.29%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	28.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.03%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.79%
HBP% /PA	0.80%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.65%
Singles /BIP	19.53%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.008	×1.045	18.92%
Doubles /BIP	12.43%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.008	×1.045	10.86%
Triples /BIP	1.48%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.008	×1.045	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	4.73%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	3.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .370 → .311; ISO .225 → .185; BABIP .345 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2005 ROKBillings Mustangs · 217 PAwOBA .355 → .253 (−102)K% 24.4% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.42%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	35.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.14%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×1.022	6.32%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.34%
Singles /BIP	20.86%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.039	×1.022	18.18%
Doubles /BIP	7.91%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.039	×1.022	6.05%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.039	×1.022	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	6.47%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.022	4.97%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .355 → .253; ISO .219 → .152; BABIP .318 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).