Mike Ford

1B St. Paul Saints

Age 35 L/R 6'0" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	31	AAASEA	211	.302/.429/.605	13	2	114	—	.245/.338/.440
2023	31	MLBSEA	251	.228/.324/.475	16	0	127	0.6
2024	32	AAACIN	105	.297/.385/.538	6	2	82	—	.232/.298/.389
2024	32	MLBCIN	62	.150/.177/.233	1	0	8	-0.8
2025	33	AAAMIN	191	.239/.351/.436	8	0	57	—	.185/.262/.295
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	35	MLBMIN	15	.227/.299/.380	0	0	91	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBMIN	1	.215/.285/.353	0	0	79	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Barrel%67

Avg EV41

Bat Spd36

xwOBA34

Speed10

CompsAndy Tracy (age 35) · Kole Calhoun (age 35) · Kevin Barker (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .299 / .380

PA15

HR0

K%27

BB%7

BABIP278

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.200

POWER60

Barrel%

6710.8

Avg EV

4188.4

Bat Spd

3669.8

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1022.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	22	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	52	48	17	4	0	2	4	7	0	0	0	354	404	562	966	208	385	13	8	424	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	381	325	92	15	2	11	48	39	5	2	0	283	384	443	827	160	291	10	13	369	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	500	435	113	23	3	6	60	75	0	1	0	260	349	368	717	108	298	15	12	324	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	180	143	40	10	0	5	34	25	1	0	0	280	421	455	876	175	304	14	19	391	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	41	35	13	1	0	2	5	4	0	0	1	371	450	571	1.021	200	367	10	12	439	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	115	94	25	5	0	7	18	16	1	0	0	266	389	543	932	277	247	14	16	400	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	417	335	91	19	1	13	76	56	4	1	0	272	412	451	863	179	291	13	18	387	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	44	38	6	2	0	0	5	8	1	0	0	158	273	211	483	53	200	18	11	237	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	410	367	93	21	0	15	37	70	4	1	0	253	328	433	762	180	275	17	9	338	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	New York Yankees	—	163	143	37	7	0	12	17	28	3	0	0	259	350	559	909	301	243	17	10	395	141	+8	+0	-1	-9	+4	0.2
2019	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	349	294	89	20	0	23	46	55	5	0	1	303	406	605	1.011	303	300	16	13	432	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	84	74	10	4	0	2	7	16	2	0	0	135	229	270	499	135	140	19	8	229	40	-6	+0	-2	-1	+2	-0.8
2021	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	72	60	8	0	0	3	11	23	1	0	0	133	278	283	561	150	147	32	15	266	56	-4	+0	-0	-7	+2	-0.9
2021	29	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	307	268	57	10	1	14	35	81	3	1	0	213	310	414	725	201	247	26	11	323	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	149	131	27	5	0	3	17	40	1	0	0	206	302	313	615	107	273	27	11	285	80	-4	+0	-1	-5	+3	-0.7
2022	30	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	137	113	28	8	0	2	23	17	1	0	0	248	380	372	751	124	277	12	17	347	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	251	219	50	6	0	16	24	81	7	0	0	228	324	475	799	247	276	32	10	352	127	+8	+0	+0	-8	+5	0.6
2023	31	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	211	172	52	11	1	13	34	30	4	2	0	302	429	605	1.033	302	300	14	16	445	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	62	60	9	0	1	1	2	15	0	0	0	150	177	233	411	83	182	24	3	184	8	-7	+0	+1	-3	+1	-0.8
2024	32	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	105	91	27	4	0	6	12	20	1	2	0	297	385	538	923	242	318	19	11	401	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	191	163	39	8	0	8	27	47	1	0	2	239	351	436	786	196	287	25	14	352	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	781	687	141	22	1	37	78	203	14	0	0	205	299	402	701	197	232	26	10	314	98	-2	+0	-3	-34	+17	-2.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	22	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	52	49	15	4	0	2	3	10	0	0	0	306	346	510	856	204	357	19	6	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	381	343	87	12	2	10	30	54	5	2	0	254	323	388	711	134	266	14	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	500	452	99	21	2	6	43	105	0	1	0	219	287	314	601	95	263	21	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	180	156	41	10	0	4	21	31	1	0	0	263	354	404	758	141	288	17	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	41	36	12	1	0	2	4	6	0	0	1	333	400	528	928	194	330	15	10	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	115	100	24	5	0	5	12	19	1	0	0	240	327	440	767	200	240	17	10	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	417	360	91	19	1	11	51	68	4	1	0	253	352	403	755	150	278	16	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	410	379	82	18	0	12	25	84	4	1	0	216	272	359	631	142	243	20	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	163	145	36	7	0	11	15	28	3	0	0	248	331	524	855	276	243	17	9	377	141	+8	+0	-1	-9	+4	0.2
2019	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	349	311	77	16	0	19	29	66	5	0	1	248	322	482	804	235	247	19	8	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	84	74	10	4	0	2	7	16	2	0	0	135	229	270	499	135	140	19	8	227	40	-6	+0	-2	-1	+2	-0.8
2021	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	72	61	8	0	0	3	10	23	1	0	0	131	264	279	543	148	147	32	14	251	56	-4	+0	-0	-7	+2	-0.9
2021	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	307	281	46	8	1	10	22	99	3	1	0	164	232	306	538	142	204	32	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	149	131	27	5	0	3	17	40	1	0	0	206	302	313	615	107	273	27	11	286	80	-4	+0	-1	-5	+3	-0.7
2022	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	137	121	25	7	0	1	15	21	1	0	0	207	299	289	589	83	241	15	11	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	251	219	50	6	0	16	24	81	7	0	0	228	324	475	799	247	276	32	10	356	127	+8	+0	+0	-8	+5	0.6
2023	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	211	184	45	10	1	8	22	35	4	2	0	245	338	440	778	196	258	17	10	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	62	60	9	0	1	1	2	15	0	0	0	150	177	233	411	83	182	24	3	180	8	-7	+0	+1	-3	+1	-0.8
2024	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	105	95	22	3	0	4	8	24	1	2	0	232	298	389	688	158	256	23	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	191	173	32	7	0	4	17	57	1	0	2	185	262	295	557	110	253	30	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	433	392	101	15	2	12	33	64	5	2	0	258	323	398	721	140	279	15	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	433	373	109	19	2	13	52	46	5	2	0	292	386	458	844	166	303	11	12	375	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	500	452	99	21	2	6	43	105	0	1	0	219	287	314	601	95	269	21	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	Tampa Yankees	—	500	435	113	23	3	6	60	75	0	1	0	260	349	368	717	108	298	15	12	324	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	221	193	53	11	0	6	24	36	1	0	1	275	358	425	783	150	305	16	11	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	221	178	53	11	0	7	39	29	1	0	1	298	427	478	904	180	317	13	18	400	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	498	125	26	1	18	68	95	6	1	0	251	348	416	764	165	275	16	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	576	467	122	26	1	20	99	80	6	1	0	261	397	450	847	188	275	14	17	378	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	410	379	82	18	0	12	25	84	4	1	0	216	272	359	631	142	246	20	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	410	367	93	21	0	15	37	70	4	1	0	253	328	433	762	180	275	17	9	338	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	512	456	113	23	0	30	44	94	8	0	1	248	325	496	820	248	247	18	9	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	512	437	126	27	0	35	63	83	8	0	1	288	388	590	978	302	282	16	12	420	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	84	74	10	4	0	2	7	16	2	0	0	135	229	270	499	135	140	19	8	227	40	-6	+0	-2	-1	+2	-0.8
2020	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	84	74	10	4	0	2	7	16	2	0	0	135	229	270	499	135	140	19	8	229	40	-6	+0	-2	-1	+2	-0.8
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	342	54	8	1	13	32	122	4	1	0	158	238	301	539	143	197	32	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	379	328	65	10	1	17	46	104	4	1	0	198	304	390	694	192	231	27	12	312	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	286	252	52	12	0	4	32	61	2	0	0	206	301	302	602	95	257	21	11	280	75	-8	+0	-1	-5	+6	-0.9
2022	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	286	244	55	13	0	5	40	57	2	0	0	225	339	340	679	115	275	20	14	315	75	-8	+0	-1	-5	+6	-0.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	462	403	95	16	1	24	46	116	11	2	0	236	330	459	789	223	268	25	10	347	121	+12	+0	+0	-8	+10	1.4
2023	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	462	391	102	17	1	29	58	111	11	2	0	261	372	532	904	271	289	24	13	394	121	+12	+0	+0	-8	+10	1.4
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	167	155	31	3	1	5	10	39	1	2	0	200	253	329	582	129	232	23	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	167	151	36	4	1	7	14	35	1	2	0	238	307	417	724	179	264	21	8	321	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	191	173	32	7	0	4	17	57	1	0	2	185	262	295	557	110	250	30	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	191	163	39	8	0	8	27	47	1	0	2	239	351	436	786	196	287	25	14	352	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	433	392	101	15	2	12	33	64	5	2	0	258	323	398	721	140	277	15	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	500	453	99	21	2	6	43	105	0	1	0	219	287	313	600	95	263	21	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	221	194	53	11	0	6	24	36	1	0	1	273	358	423	780	149	296	16	11	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	497	125	26	1	18	68	95	6	1	0	252	348	416	764	165	270	16	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	410	378	82	18	0	12	25	84	4	1	0	217	272	360	632	143	243	20	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	512	455	113	23	0	30	44	94	8	0	1	248	325	497	822	248	246	18	9	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	84	75	10	4	0	2	7	16	2	0	0	133	229	267	496	133	140	19	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	340	54	8	1	13	32	122	4	1	0	159	238	303	541	144	193	32	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	286	250	52	12	0	4	32	61	2	0	0	208	301	304	605	96	258	21	11	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	462	402	95	16	1	24	46	116	11	2	0	236	330	460	791	224	268	25	10	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	167	154	31	3	1	5	10	39	1	2	0	201	253	331	584	130	228	23	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	191	171	32	7	0	4	17	57	1	0	2	187	262	298	560	111	253	30	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	167	154	31	3	1	5	10	39	1	2	0	201	253	331	584	130	228	23	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	191	171	32	7	0	4	17	57	1	0	2	187	262	298	560	111	253	30	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	MIN	10%	236	212	48	10	1	7	20	58	2	2	1	227	299	380	678	153	278	25	8	302	91	-3	+0	+1	-4	+5	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	MIN	10%	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	227	299	380	679	153	278	27	7	303	91	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	MIN	1%	105	94	20	4	0	3	9	27	1	0	0	214	285	352	637	138	266	26	9	286	79	-3	+0	-6	-2	+2	-0.8
2028	36	MLB CTX	MIN	1%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	215	285	353	638	139	267	0	0	286	79	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	782	688	141	22	1	37	78	203	14	0	0	205	299	401	700	196	231	26	10	313	90	-2	+0	-3	-34	+17	-2.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	117	18	1	31	65	169	12	0	0	205	299	402	701	198	230	26	10	313	90	-1	+0	-3	-28	+14	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4472	3995	897	174	9	143	402	952	47	11	5	225	303	380	683	155	258	21	9	301	90	-6	-0	-9	-38	+22	-3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	130	25	1	21	58	138	7	2	1	224	302	379	681	155	256	21	9	301	90	-4	-0	-5	-24	+14	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 191 PAwOBA .343 → .252 (−91)K% 24.6% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.61%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	29.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.14%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.942	8.99%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.46%
Singles /BIP	19.83%	÷0.944	×0.930	×1.008	×0.942	18.54%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷0.938	×0.830	×1.008	×0.942	5.80%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.008	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷1.253	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .343 → .252; ISO .196 → .119; BABIP .287 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 105 PAwOBA .394 → .290 (−104)K% 19.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.05%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	22.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.43%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.27%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.85%
Singles /BIP	23.94%	÷0.995	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	20.25%
Doubles /BIP	5.63%	÷0.964	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	4.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.45%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.952	5.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .394 → .290; ISO .242 → .156; BABIP .318 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 211 PAwOBA .434 → .337 (−97)K% 14.2% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.22%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	16.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.64%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×0.962	10.25%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.71%
Singles /BIP	19.01%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.002	×0.962	17.23%
Doubles /BIP	7.75%	÷0.940	×0.830	×1.002	×0.962	6.59%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.002	×0.962	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	9.15%	÷1.157	×0.700	—	×0.962	5.33%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .434 → .337; ISO .302 → .210; BABIP .300 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 137 PAwOBA .339 → .273 (−65)K% 12.4% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.41%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	15.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.79%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.972	10.89%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.67%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.993	×0.930	×0.986	×0.972	16.83%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.956	×0.830	×0.986	×0.972	6.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.986	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .339 → .273; ISO .124 → .100; BABIP .277 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 307 PAwOBA .313 → .234 (−79)K% 26.4% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.38%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	32.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.75%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.18%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.90%
Singles /BIP	17.11%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	14.93%
Doubles /BIP	5.35%	÷1.005	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	4.12%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×0.982	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	7.49%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.982	5.32%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .313 → .234; ISO .201 → .142; BABIP .247 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 349 PAwOBA .424 → .343 (−81)K% 15.8% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.76%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.61%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.19%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.35%
Singles /BIP	19.25%	÷1.019	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	16.73%
Doubles /BIP	8.37%	÷1.009	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	6.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.938	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.62%	÷1.087	×0.840	—	×1.003	7.46%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .424 → .343; ISO .303 → .246; BABIP .300 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 410 PAwOBA .329 → .276 (−54)K% 17.1% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.07%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	20.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.78%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.96%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.93%
Singles /BIP	19.19%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.997	×1.018	17.56%
Doubles /BIP	7.07%	÷1.004	×0.830	×0.997	×1.018	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.130	×0.970	×0.997	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.05%	÷1.046	×0.840	—	×1.018	4.13%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 126, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .329 → .276; ISO .180 → .149; BABIP .275 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATrenton Thunder · 417 PAwOBA .376 → .335 (−41)K% 13.4% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.43%	÷1.007	×1.220	—	—	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.03%	÷0.979	×0.700	—	×0.998	12.16%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.81%
Singles /BIP	20.79%	÷1.020	×0.970	×1.027	×0.998	20.27%
Doubles /BIP	6.81%	÷0.936	×0.860	×1.027	×0.998	6.41%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.027	×0.998	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	4.66%	÷0.960	×0.780	—	×0.998	3.78%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .376 → .335; ISO .179 → .162; BABIP .291 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Brian Hunter'91-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,742 PA	2.6	1,742	67	4	226*	288*	432*	-29	+4	0.1	0.8
/162	664	26	2	-11.1	+1.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#6Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	1.2	797	37	0	208	298	406	-14	-6	0.5	0.5
/162	664	31	0	-11.9	-4.6	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mike Ford (OGILVIE)	35	45	60	45	60	225/296/376	151	278	4	1	25%	8%	91	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andy Tracy 2009 · AAA	35	43→45	51→55	44→45	48	223/289/384	161	263	20	5	24%	8%	89	+0.5	220/289/394	174	266	22	6	26%	8%	92	+0.7	209/284/386	177	250	23	5	27%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Kole Calhoun 2023 · MLB	35	40→50	51→60	44→50	44	213/281/367	154	270	20	5	29%	8%	83	+0.1	224/288/377	153	273	17	5	24%	7%	87	+0.4	220/284/378	158	258	16	0	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Kevin Barker 2010 · MLB	35	42→45	53→55	43→40	46	223/282/393	170	262	21	3	24%	7%	88	+0.5	245/309/400	155	286	16	4	19%	8%	100	+1.3	256/324/403	147	295	13	1	17%	9%	105	+1.0
✕Brian Burgamy 2016 · AAA	35	44→47	49→50	41→50	48	226/293/372	145	276	17	5	24%	8%	88	+0.4	226/294/342	116	303	11	9	27%	8%	81	-0.1	225/298/331	106	305	9	10	27%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Brett Harper 2016 · AAA	35	46→51	54→60	46→30	44	242/303/406	164	299	24	6	28%	7%	99	+1.3	233/288/380	147	293	20	5	27%	6%	88	+0.4	223/276/357	134	277	19	0	26%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Brad Snyder 2017 · MLB	35	45→51	53→55	50	42	233/290/402	169	315	23	8	33%	7%	93	+0.8	229/288/389	160	305	19	7	30%	8%	90	+0.6	208/270/377	169	270	21	0	30%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Felix Perez 2019 · AAA	34	46→54	50→60	43→50	43	236/290/387	150	283	18	7	24%	6%	90	+0.6	231/285/424	193	262	26	5	23%	6%	97	+1.1	216/269/426	210	229	30	0	22%	5%	93	+0.6
✕Nick Martini 2024 · MLB	34	45→55	49→50	43→45	49	227/309/381	154	279	17	3	24%	9%	96	+1.0	217/296/357	140	263	15	3	23%	8%	86	+0.3	204/286/329	125	245	13	1	22%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Refugio Cervantes 2014 · AAA	35	46→52	49→60	43→30	41	236/272/375	139	272	18	3	21%	4%	80	-0.1	215/247/330	115	266	13	4	24%	4%	60	-1.6	204/234/312	109	249	12	1	24%	4%	51	-1.0
✕Andy Abad 2008 · AAA	35	48	48→50	44→45	46	242/284/379	137	258	17	7	15%	5%	86	+0.3	224/275/334	110	264	11	9	19%	6%	72	-0.7	169/227/206	37	212	0	0	19%	5%	23	-0.9
✕Chris Richard 2009 · AAA	35	44→52	53→55	49→50	43	229/293/405	176	283	21	8	27%	7%	96	+1.0	223/287/395	172	269	21	4	25%	7%	91	+0.7	212/280/383	171	248	21	1	24%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Jake Lamb 2024 · MLB	33	45→55	49→60	44→45	49	226/308/369	143	293	17	4	28%	9%	93	+0.8	213/284/319	106	284	10	4	27%	8%	72	-0.7	196/266/282	86	265	7	0	27%	7%	56	-0.9
●Alex Gordon 2018 · MLB	34	45→55	48→55	45→50	49	226/309/366	140	281	16	8	25%	9%	93	+0.8	245/320/376	131	292	14	8	20%	8%	99	+1.3	250/327/377	127	293	14	7	19%	8%	103	+1.2
✕Daryle Ward 2011 · MLB	36	43→53	48→60	46→30	48	220/281/353	134	256	16	6	22%	7%	79	-0.2	237/305/368	131	271	13	10	17%	9%	91	+0.7	254/333/370	116	273	9	4	10%	10%	114	+0.4
●John Lindsey 2012 · AAA	35	44→51	50→60	44→30	39	227/287/382	155	287	17	3	27%	5%	88	+0.5	231/300/429	198	285	26	2	28%	6%	105	+1.7	221/296/425	204	267	29	0	29%	6%	100	+1.0
✕Pedro Swann 2006 · MLB	35	44	49→50	53→45	40	228/279/381	153	275	17	7	24%	4%	84	+0.2	233/280/364	131	292	12	11	24%	5%	80	-0.1	234/279/355	121	296	10	12	24%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Edgard Clemente 2010 · AAA	34	46	50	39→40	49	236/302/386	150	279	18	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	246/305/399	153	301	17	8	23%	7%	99	+1.2	225/287/381	156	284	20	9	28%	6%	84	+0.0
✕Matt McBride 2019 · MLB	34	38→48	51→55	42→40	45	204/261/364	161	235	18	4	23%	6%	74	-0.5	214/266/385	171	257	22	7	26%	6%	81	-0.1	174/211/355	181	185	29	0	27%	3%	51	-0.6
✕Matt Adams 2023 · MLB	34	45→55	48→65	49→40	47	228/291/366	139	284	15	9	25%	8%	86	+0.3	202/247/329	127	282	16	5	33%	5%	60	-1.6	173/209/280	107	240	15	0	35%	4%	32	-2.4
✕Bill Selby 2005 · MLB	35	43→47	48→55	48→40	50	220/283/365	145	249	16	7	20%	8%	82	+0.0	246/312/426	180	251	22	6	13%	8%	107	+1.9	243/310/428	185	241	23	3	11%	7%	107	+1.4

Mike Ford

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps